 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Monday the 15th of November. I hope you're doing well and had a fantastic weekend Before I begin the normal briefing don't forget to check out amplify me.com Three things that you can do here if you're a student and you want to take part in one of our practical Finance accelerator simulations You can just book in for the next one. It's happening a public free event on Wednesday You can also go on here and sign up for free to access our content hub of market analysis Careers sessions and so on or if you wanted to just stay on top of markets and Scale up your your macro fundamental knowledge There's a newsletter here that gets written by me at the end of every European day We need to do is just pop your email in there and you're up and running But otherwise what I'm going to do and talk about in the briefing this morning or a couple of things Summise the weekend major news flow has some Chinese data overnight some commentary worth noting out of the BOJ Morgan Stanley's latest Fed rate call. We've also got an update on global COVID a bit of a disparity We're seeing across the globe at the moment particularly the worst spots being in mainland Europe So we'll have because some charts to do with that We'll talk about some stocks news Of course can't go a briefing without talking about you know Musk and Tesla and then we'll look at the week ahead with a lot of focus on the UK market given there's a number of key Jobs data CPI and retail sales data coming out which will shape people's expectations about the timings at right height for the UK So going to stick with the news in this briefing and going to start first of all of what's happened overnight We don't have some economic data the Chinese industrial Output and retail sales accelerate property clouds obviously still remain with the Evergrande Saga still going on but industrial production for October and year and year came in at 3.5 percent above the expected 3 and Retail sales 4.9 percent above the expected 3.5 percent It is worth noting though that China at the moment is battling Pretty much as big as COVID-19 outbreak that it's had so far given the Delta variant particularly in the Northeastern Dalian city at the moment and in fact it marks China's most widespread outbreak Since this new variant having now affected 21 provinces across China the actual case numbers are Particularly low Comparatives to say here in the UK or mainland Europe by comparison But it comes in the context of China's zero tolerance policy and definitely more onerous Lockdowns on regions municipalities obviously could well have an impact on this current inflationary global environment We're having at the moment if there are further problems with supply chains and so on so definitely worth keeping an eye on shifting over to Japan We've had some comments out of this guy the governor Koroda he spoke overnight and doesn't come as much as a prize But it's definitely a lot different in Japan in inflationary terms from what we're seeing in the US last week at 6.2% Inflation at the moment as projected to get near 1% by middle of next year I was having a look this morning in the article about you know why is Inflation so low and it talks about the tentative nature of companies in history in Japan to raise Wages and and also the consumer sensitivity to just generally inflationary concerns as reasons why this figure just remains grounded so to speak But with inflation still well short of the 2% target the BOJ will maintain its powerful monetary easing And stand ready to ramp up stimulus even as other central banks of course ending their crisis mode policies at the moment So quick look elsewhere. I was one of the other comments here is Morgan Stanley They've come out over the weekend and the headline talks about a differ from Gorman's essentially the economist team and What the CEO of the bank are saying is slightly diverging Gorman being a little bit more hawkish Than the economists are not the first time that that's happened mind But Morgan Stanley's economists are sticking with their prediction that the Fed won't raise interest rates until 2023 and obviously that would put them in a much more dovish outlook than where the general consensus lies for broader markets at this point in time Otherwise just having a look elsewhere on the politics side continuation of the trend that we've had which is While you're here, why don't you say hello? Okay, it's too early for you to be up Okay, little guest appearance there she's she's fine But The other thing here is US politics and president's overall Rating continues to decline. We've seen this for some time It's now down at 41% and to give you some again context That's down from 50% in June 44% in September according to a Washington Post ABC news poll that came out over the weekend In fact about half of Americans overall as well as political independence blame Behyden for the the current acceleration inflation that we're seeing at the moment So he continues to take a bit of a battering politically at the moment And from an infrastructure point of view that by partisan bill of one trillion dollars is set to be Scheduled to be signed by the president later on today All right looking at COVID This is the chart of covid amongst a selection of countries which probably helps gives you a bit of greater context The one here that is pretty phenomenal. This is looking at daily new confirmed cases per million people on a seven-day rolling average You can see here. Austria is absolutely off the scale at the moment compared to other areas And so the country itself has announced a lockdown for unvaccinated people for at least 10 days As coronavirus cases spiked to record levels from Monday into at least November 24th and it comes after Austria's seven-day average as you can see here is more than doubled this month to more than 10,000 and its recent rate of infection is among now the highest in the world if you can imagine Due to the recent surge in covid cases. We're also seeing here is this line here, which is Germany Germany They plan to Require companies to allow office workers to start working from home where possible and obviously neighboring nation of Austria which has seen this dramatic and worst case of outbreak so far on the flip side though Looking slightly different other things are in the UK. We've had a slight uptick after a consecutive period of Substantial declines so worth keeping an eye there and the United States They feel now confident enough to ease travel restrictions. It came to light over the weekend and Japan all the way down here Recorded no daily covid cases for the first time in over a year So at the moment you've got more positive developments happening certainly in Japan Loosely of travel restrictions in the US, but particularly as we go into the November Thanksgiving and we've got Christmas coming up with new years It's definitely going to be interesting to keep an eye on those numbers if they do indeed ease travel restrictions on how that plays out But at the moment as far as mainland Europe is concerned You can see much more moderate but upticks in France more aggressive in Germany most aggressive Obviously that we're seeing at the moment. It's being seen in Austria All right, a couple of single stock stories Just an update really on Elon Musk selling his shares the number continues to kind of mount The latest figure here is he offloaded around just under seven billion worth of shares in the company last week He now needs to offload about 10 million more shares in order to fulfill his Twitter poll pledge that he was going to look at the disposing of around 10% of the stock He's never far away from the news. He was tweeting all sorts over the weekend He was taking pop shots at Bernie Sanders to over the amount of tax that he's paying He was tweeting about crypto and meme numbers and He certainly knows how to how to juice the moment And I'm sure we'll be hearing much more from Musk and obviously looking out for any more potential sales It might happen this week and the impact that that's had Subsequently on the Tesla stock The other company I thought would be interested to watch at the European Open this morning is Airbus And the reason why they've secured incredibly large orders of 255 narrow-body jets at the Dubai air show and the deal for Airbus's larger a321 models is valued at more than 30 billion US dollars before typical industry discounts are issued So you'd be interested to see how they perform today in Airbus shares from an earnings point of view It's pretty quiet for certainly anything that could influence the overall index But there are a couple of large brick-and-mortar US names reporting this week Namely, you've got Walmart and Home Depot pre-market on Tuesday You got Target and Lowe's on pre-market Wednesday NVIDIA Cisco aftermarket on the same day and you've got Alibaba Macy's coals so on reporting on Thursday as well just as a reference All right, let's talk about the week ahead And for the to start with rather than talk about economic data You know on the geopolitical front and investors going to be watching very closely the meeting between obviously Xi Jinping And Joe Biden that's going to be happening later on today. I think London time It's around kind of towards 8 p.m. London time. I'm looking out for signs of any warming of relations on trade and other issues and a couple of things to be aware of is that An editorial in the English language China Daily, which is kind of the mousepiece of the Chinese government I said it's likely that she would impress impress upon Biden that Beijing is resolved to realize National reunification in a foreseeable foreseeable future no matter the cost and of course They're talking about Taiwan the one China policy and this is a real source of friction between the two at the moment So it looks like China not backing down on that and certainly The general tone of their discussions will be will be closely scrutinized when we come in tomorrow morning Otherwise the other thing here is on an international trade front Talking of China Beijing has accused the EU of risking damage to world supply chains by throwing up regulatory and trade hurdles To foreign businesses the Chinese ambassador has also attacked a recent EU-US deal on steel and aluminium tariffs. You'll remember we're talking about that maybe two weeks ago And that deal is to seek to restrict imports from more carbon intensive Producers like China so obviously from a Western point of view one thing the pandemic has brought to light is a dependency on the supply chain and Namely that of China and so as they start to move away from that And as China is kind of assuming more centralized power China of course don't want this to happen at least not so rapidly because of their still dependency on the exportation of their goods So again another area to keep an eye on trade as they speak later on All right quick look at the calendar for today Couple of just going to talk over some of the main points that I'm looking at and starting off with the UK And the reason for that is that UK you can see here on Wednesday first thing in the morning You get the latest jobs data then so a Tuesday Wednesday You get UK CPI first thing in the morning and then UK retail sales comes out on Friday So it's a blockbuster week for the UK economy as far as an information point of view and this comes after The big disappointment that we had from the Bank of England who did not deliver on that widely anticipated rate Hike back on the 4th of November That with this data that we're looking at the one in particular is going to draw a lot of attention is the one tomorrow morning And the reason for that is that the October jobs data will show if unemployment rose After the September 30th expiry of the pandemic wage subsidy scheme That over 1 million people were estimated to be on so remember one of the key factors That I was talking about a time which supported my views that it weren't gonna hike Is that they wouldn't have had visibility on the real true underlying impacts of the end of furlough To then judge whether the labor market was in good enough position Even though inflation obviously is ticking that box at the moment the jobs market not so much So better for them to wait and see and get that information and we're gonna get that tomorrow The other things then are inflation and retail sales Wednesday and Thursday Wednesday and Friday Excuse me respectively a big inflation print Alongside another retail sales decline could well force the Bank of England to choose whether to act against inflation Or does a actor kind of nurture the more fragile recovery that we're seeing at the moment from a UK CPI point of view On an annual pace it is expected to tick up to 3.9 percent in October a pick up from 3.1 That was seen in September Couple of comments I saw our chief economist at the mirror Said that of the report from the O&S and when it's down inflation He expects it to climb to a further four and a half percent in November to reach a peak of five percent in the spring of next year Do keep in mind though that is as punchiest those numbers sound in line with what the bank has already telegraphed That essentially we're gonna hit around five percent in the spring before then fading with this kind of transitory views didn't hold After the spring the Bank of England expects inflation to fall as the impacts of higher oil and gas prices start to fade The demand for goods calls and some of the raw material shortages that are causing the current pressure to start to fade as well As the rationale there However, Bank of England's Andrew Bailey did say that it was crucial element to judge to what extent inflation would be temporary And thus the scale and pace of the bank's response was the evolution of the labor market following the end of the furlough scheme in September so we already kind of know the direction of travel with Inflation it's gonna go up this week It's gonna go up a little more as well in the months ahead before it then Calls off as far as what the perception is of the bank. It's the uncertainty is the jobs data So out of the leaning of the three I'd say in order of priority probably looking at the jobs market then inflation reading and then lower down the retail sales Figure the other number to talk about briefly here then is US retail sales comes out on Tuesday as you can see here On track to increase 1.4 1.5 percent from the previous month Up from the previous 0.7 Many Americans are kind of getting to the business of their Christmas shopping done early in hopes of avoiding any out of stock Situations as we draw closer to the holiday Couple that with a fairly robust Halloween items being sold over the period and that early holiday rush It's probably given this this figure a bit of an autumn boost is what analysts are suggesting Otherwise on the same day you do get industrial production coming out the States Should see good manufacturing growth based on the ISM report already released You've got your weekly jobless claims on Thursday alongside Philly Fed as well coming out then As well. So that is it gonna leave it there. Obviously quite a few things there. I've gone through Feel free to check out my Twitter account for a bit of a recap of what I've just covered Otherwise, have yourself a good day and remember to check out abify me comm and I'll see you same time tomorrow. Take care