 Good morning to our fourth episode of Eat NATO for breakfast show. I am Nora Garcia talking to you from Madrid I'm part of the international people's assembly and the coordination of the peace summit. Thank you all for being here with us This breakfast today is a tough one. The situation in Ukraine has blown up. Russia has invited Ukraine It seems we need to deal with a whole new reality Probably we have read a lot of articles tweets and news But today we want to build a moment of reflection Calm exchange and a more in-depth analysis connecting this escalate of tensions of the past few months on the international landscape with NATO We have seen people going to the streets Demonstrating for peace. There are a lot of calls for immediate heart of any aggressions in Ukraine In many cities worldwide people are out on the streets today like our friends in Belgium Many of us working towards peace are being attacked in the black and white idea in a simplistic way Either Russia or US We say we are on the side of peace So we urge you to sign our declaration the peace summit no to NATO Madrid 2022 Declaration on our website. So please join us in this very moment Francie a good morning, please tell us more on why we are talking today about Ukraine Hey, good morning all. Thank you for joining us Yeah, it seems a difficult moment the way you said Nora It seems like it's not a moment for words but for actions But I think when the when the urgent begins to override the important and when we mix up cause and effect Then we really get lost somewhere. So I think I agree with you very much that it's time for a moment of reflection In our last breakfast we were talking about the new Cold War against China with Ajit and Fiona and they Helped us sort of expose the most used cliches from the West to justify the Cold War against China and gave us arguments to Understand why it's a central issue on the NATO's agenda Much of what we learned then can be Shown or you can see in the dealings with Russia in the last couple of years But now it seems like we are in a totally new situation and this Cold War at least has turned hot already I want to welcome York York Honour. He's a German journalist specializing in NATO issues and Before we even begin to look at the more difficult complex relationships and the negotiations and the dependencies and the economics that underlie all these current tensions Can you help us for people who have just gotten up this morning with an update on what is actually going on? Right now on the ground like what is the situation? What can we see right now? What's the status? Yeah Yeah, thank you Right now we can see that the Russian offensive military offensive is going on Russia continues to attack they have taken several airfields and which Makes their attacks even more possible. They have taken the first one of the big cities Militopol in southern Ukraine They are on the They are just now are attacking Kiev. There's street fighting in Kiev. There are explosions in Kiev But they not they have not yet taken Kiev It's not yet clear how many people have died in the war and the Ukrainian government says around 200 Syrian people have been killed More than thousand have been wounded The United Nations say that Approximately 100 thousands are fleeing the country. So the situation is really quite bad And as I said fighting is going on we will see how it proceeds today Ukrainian President Zelensky Just a couple of minutes ago called the people to fight to continue fighting. It's not only the Ukrainian military which is fighting Ukrainian Syrians have been delivered weapons to take part in the fight against Russian army This is one side of the story at the same time President Zelensky has offered talks to Russia yesterday He said he would be prepared to talk to Russia to settle a deal And he would even be prepared to talk about Neutral status for Ukraine something Russia always has demanded in Moscow the Russian government has been talking about that obviously it has not agreed yet to talks Putin Yesterday has called for a military coup in Ukraine He called Ukrainian soldiers to stand up against their own government that has not happened Anyway, he has called for a coup Then if you look at outside Ukraine itself President Zelensky always has demanded more support even weapon support from European countries that have not happened yet the EU Instead has brought sanctions into effect heavies financial and economic sanctions So for example, there will be no European capital for Russian banks anymore. There will be no economic deals for Russian state enterprises anymore The European Union has brought into effect sanctions against President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov That is more or less symbolic, but anyway, it's an important symbol The United States have imposed sanctions the UK and even Japan has imposed sanctions on Russia So international international pressure is growing Although one can see that in a way the West is kind of not making progress into other parts of the world in rallying countries against Russia there was the UN Security Council voting on Resolution Condemning the Russian aggression in Ukraine and interestingly only 11 of the 15 countries Supported it. Although the United States and even the European countries exerted huge pressure on all other countries to support it The countries which didn't support it was of course Russia But then China who abstained to vote and interestingly even India and the United Arab Emirates abstained from the vote. So They did not condemn Russia, which is quite interesting because both of them the United Arab Emirates and even India are collaborating closely with the West and are even supported closely by the West so Yeah, there is no United International Front against Russia one last point NATO has activated Their defense plans and started deploying the NATO response force and the very high readiness task force to the east They won't enter into war against Russia. That's obvious they made that really very clear, but They just put troops to the east as a signal that Russia Will meet strong resistance if they continue the war beyond Ukraine what they don't want, but anyway NATO is mobilizing as well Thank you very much for portrayals like what's going on now We feel that we've been hearing on about this issue on Ukraine for several months But right now everything is getting very very very fast But we want you to talk about one concrete thing because in the last day We heard a lot about how the situation got to this point NATO's policy of incitement NATO as the armed force of the US to keep the world in Germany the European Union following a suicidal path in their own Continent acting as a buttocks of NATO But one big issue has been rising because for sure people are also concerned for solutions We have been hearing that one possibility to de-escalate tensions would be a commitment that the Ukraine is not going to join NATO We want in these eight NATO for breakfast for sure think together how all this is connected Why this is that important? Is it still also in this moment that you are describing a key thing to solve or to go towards a solution of of this situation and You know, what does the conflict in Ukraine have to do with NATO's strategy? Yeah, I think quite a lot. In fact, it's two points which Really closely have to do with NATO one is I think to really understand it We have to go back a couple of years We have to go back in fact to the beginning of the 1990s which sounds strange but I think it will become clear why in 1990 when the communist states in Eastern Europe collapsed Some leading Western politicians promised the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand East That was very important by then why? The reason was that in the Cold War there was a balance of power in Europe And it was obvious at the beginning of the 1990s as soon as NATO would start to expand East That balance of power would be destroyed and things could become very dangerous very That would lead to instability so This is why it was important that NATO promised Not to expand East, but the thing is this promise quite quickly got Got broken and as you can see here on the map to the left you see NATO in 1990 and to the right you see NATO Just now the red countries are NATO countries and the light red countries Countries close to nature not NATO not member states, but close to NATO the thing is NATO has got really close to Russia even border Russia in the Baltic countries and at the same time NATO has Started to deploy troops east to the eastern and southeastern member countries and that means that this is obviously a threat to Russia so I mean people are talking about an incitement of Russia and there's a map on which you can see exactly this incitement of Insupplement of Russia here These points they are NATO bases just around Russia. So that's the strategic situation It's US bases to be precise not only NATO bases, but mostly US bases But they are encircling Russia and that is a really dangerous situation for Russia All right The thing is Ukraine has a special meaning from for Russia one reason is that Ukraine has a very long border to Russia which means in case of an attack from Ukrainian soil to Russia it is difficult to defend and a second point is If you look back into history Russia has been attacked several times from Europe most infamous two times the First in the Second World War when Russia was attacked by Germany and the thing is the attacks failed in the last instance because there was a huge territory between the Western countries the European countries and Russia Or at least the Russian capital Moscow. So the in the last century the German military did not succeed to make it really to conquer the Russian capital because of the huge space between Their own country and the Russian capital So this huge distance in strategic debates is called it is called strategic depth That is how experts call it and now imagine if Ukraine joins NATO This strategic strategic depth Immediately will be lost For Russia it would be really hard Maybe even impossible to defend itself against the potential NATO attack as soon as Ukraine joins NATO This might be a bit abstract to you, but Remember just a week ago. There were Ukraine. Sorry Russian troops Gathering at the Ukrainian border and everyone was telling with good reason as we know today That we know today And that that is a huge danger for Ukraine So the other around imagine how dangerous Russian sorry NATO troops At the Ukrainian Russian border would look to Russia. So this is why Russia has always been strongly opposed to Ukraine joining NATO now many people say Every country is free to choose its alliances. So why shouldn't Ukraine join NATO if you look closer at it It's true. It's just like in personal life. Everyone can do freely just what they wish But in personal life, there are limits to this freedom to do what you want No one has the freedom to infringe on the rights of others In the world of states, there are international agreements which have a similar meaning For example the Charter of European Security signed by the OSCE in November 1999 And that means our NATO countries signed it even Russia and Ukraine signed it And it says very clearly that on the one hand each and every participating state is free to choose its treaties of alliance But at the same time it says that quote each participating state has an equal right to security Each participating state will respect the rights of all others in these regards They will not strengthen their own security at the expense of the security of other states I quote so that is an argument against Ukraine joining NATO and it's part of the charter for European security side even by NATO countries Thank you for this exploration this really detailed exploration explaining sort of the NATO connection with the with With Russia and which role the Ukraine plays in it when we when we talk about these types of geopolitical Aspects of a conflict or a problem then it always at least to me sounds a little bit like a very big game of risk Where people are being where we're sort of armies and and negotiations happen But often it is About like it sounds like the Ukraine is a space that exists empty to either protect or Or not protect make vulnerable Russia or the other way around But then of course Ukraine is a country not only huge and with many many people that comes with its own History with its own contradictions where people have agendas you mentioned earlier Zelensky already like the government the Ukrainian government Also has an agenda. It also plays a role in this conflict. It is not just something to be I don't know in the end fought over and Ignored can you can you help us a little bit understand what is actually happening within the country? Where did for example an alliance? I mean the Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union The entire Soviet Union broke apart, but where are the conflict lines there? What does the? What is what is what is the Ukraine for us to know and understand better? Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, that's a really important question because Ukraine shows How faithful it can be if NATO or NATO countries start to meddle into another country? Breaking its sovereignty in a way you can absorb that in Ukraine If you look back ten years ago NATO was very unpopular in Ukraine. That is quite interesting and at one point NATO wanted To do a military exercises together with the Ukrainian armed forces in Crimea There were huge protests in Crimea and NATO was not able to do that military exercise in Crimea People just protested and it shows by the way that protests can be successful People rise and go onto the streets. I really protest they can drive NATO out the thing in Ukraine is you have to go back quite long into history because Ukraine is a country Which formerly belonged in its western parts to Austria, Hungary in its eastern part to Russia and it has a very diverse society even today in the western parts of the country Ukrainian is the mainly Spoken language. It's the native language of most most of them in the east and in the south of the country Most people use Russian as their native language. So that's the difference and You say doesn't matter. There are many countries in the world where many Different languages are being spoken but the thing is in Ukraine. It's connected to a History to a specific history and it's connected to different types of nationalism in western Ukraine Ukrainian nationalism is very strong and it is very strongly anti-Russian At the same time, it's closely connected to Fascism, which is really sad, but it's a historic fact in the 1930s and in the 1940s many Ukrainian nationalists sided with Nazi Germany and even fought against the Soviet Union in the Second World War and While doing that, they of course fought people in today's eastern Ukraine Russian-speaking people who fought against the Nazis. So Ukraine is a country where people in the east Were fighting in the Second World War against people in the west of the country So the split between two parts between the two parts is even strong or has always been strong until today That Ukraine was able to manage that fact quite well until in 2013 the protests on the Maidan broke The protests on the Maidan they were supported mainly by western Ukrainian nationalists and They wanted to get closer to NATO and to the EU and for that reason they were supported strongly by NATO countries It is important to mention that at the Maidan among the protesters About one third of them were Bandera admirers Bandera being the main figure of the Ukrainian fascists of western Ukraine This led to the fact that Eastern Ukraine and southern Ukraine were very critical towards Maidan protests and the Maidan protests were very decisive in Ukraine Now imagine NATO countries Supporting the Maidan protests which were very decisive divisive in Ukraine that is a grave fact and it turned out after the Maidan protests were successful and The government in Kiev was toppled and replaced by the so-called Maidan government People in southern and eastern Ukraine started to protest and even to try and split their country and their region from Ukraine And Crimea succeeded in splitting from Ukraine. It became part of Russia Eastern Ukraine, Danetsk and Luhansk, they also tried to split from Russia But they did not really succeed, no one recognized them until quite recently just a couple of days ago when Russia finally recognized them as old nation states That's the story and it shows how NATO meddling supporting the Maidan protests Can contribute to splitting a country, even splitting a country into different parts Thank you, Jörg for this For giving us a little bit of the Ukrainian perspective on all of this and how Yeah, how difficult, how a cold war and how No country is actually safe And really protected in its sovereignty. That sovereignty is a very very fragile fragile state of being for most countries, especially when they're in When they're in specific regions or when they have, I don't know specific resources, let's think of other NATO NATO meddling that is, you know, more directly bloody such as Iraq or Afghanistan, etc, etc Yeah, so that's Thank you for that. I Have another question that brings us a little bit outside of the actual conflict region You write for German foreign policy Which means that I assume you have specific insights into what's going on in Germany or at least this is one field of your interest We've seen in in this in this situation right now We have heard a lot about the the North Stream 2 pipeline We have heard a lot about what is the European Union doing now Germany is a big player within the European Union and determines quite a bit which direction the European Union takes in its Allyship with or against Russia closer to the US farther away from the US other leaders in Europe have been talking directly to Russia such as Macon Where do we how do we what do we expect here in Europe? What is happening in the European more European region? What is To be expected for For example for the people here now the North Stream pipeline is just not happening This is something that has been announced whether this will remain the fact we will see but as of now What does that mean to people to people here and also can you explore a little bit what the likely alliances Will will be in what what influence that will have on the alliances or on the hold of Europe Together Yeah Projects. Yeah, that is quite a broad topic one important aspect is that The sanctions which the you imposed on Russia They will have a huge impact on the European economy as a whole So it is quite obvious that there will they will reside in economic problems mainly regarding energy the reason is Russia is one of the world's biggest oil and gas producers and The EU Imports Large amounts of oil and gas from Russia Especially gas and the gas is coming via pipelines, which means on the other hand it is not easy to replace That means if the gas imports from Russia are disrupted No gas will be there anymore quite quickly and as it seems at the moment It will not be possible to replace Russian gas quickly by imports from other countries So that's a huge problem already now it drives oil and gas prices in new hates so It's Obvious that energy price prices will remain very high for At least as long as the conflict is going on and not only a ball But even the sanctions and the conflict as a whole so that's a big problem and High energy prices mean that everyone in you you will have to pay more just for heating for depends how you cook but For everything you need energy for you will pay more than before and that will Be the case for quite a while so That's one immediate impact on Europe Another impact is that There are different ideas Inside Europe on how to proceed policy-wise Towards Russia Because of the strong energy dependency on Russia There are some countries which are opposed to stronger sanctions like for example Germany or Italy On the other hand there are countries who want to have even heavier sanctions Which are for example Poland and the Baltic countries So this is something which kind of splits the European Union into different factions at least It's not really clear whether the split between the different factions will get worse or whether it will calm down We will see that depends on how the war will proceed But it's definitely something we will have to pay attention to and analyze carefully just to get a Good assumption on how the situation in Europe will develop Yeah, I think what you are saying is very important and this is split on the European Union also shows that we are not acting towards our own interests in our own Continent right so I think what what we see also in in Europe is this contradiction on how to proceed As a NATO member, but also as a European Union member And this is going to have an impact on on all of us and to all of us, right? I don't know Francis guy if you have any other question. I know that for this exchange We wanted more time Because we think that is important. So I don't know if you have any other question Or To ask to your Well, I think that we need to we need to talk a little bit about what what do we do next like sort of where we started out this Conversation, what is the you know, what what will the peace movements? What can the peace movements do? What should we be doing? How should we be? Organizing where is the line that we draw in the sand? What do we you know, it leaves so many of us You know, it leaves many of us here in a difficult Difficult complex situation struggling with understanding and struggling with taking the right steps forward And I think this is something that we need to we need to discuss here for sure I don't know if York has like, you know some advice But I think that this is this is that we need to that we need to address Yeah, I think it's very important I mean one one thing is just to go out onto the streets and protest against war That is always correct and make sense. I think but on the other hand If we want To be successful We have to think about the future because the war which is happening just now we can't prevent it anymore Maybe we can support stopping it but we failed to prevent it and We should think about preventing the coming wars. This is what I think and If we look back at how that war If you look back at the conflict Underlying that war then we can see that it has to do something with NATO with NATO expanding ease with NATO meddling into the affairs of Ukraine With NATO just doing many really stupid things not out of the interests of people but out of the interests of the ruling class and I think we have to make clear that this war is nothing Or even NATO expansion is nothing which has to do anything with our interests So I think we should make definitely clear that We won't let NATO do anything like that in the future. So I would think we should protest against the war definitely but Even but also we should protest against NATO NATO's activities and with the aim to prevent future conflicts That is something we can't see that but we have to try that And we have to try now. I think not wait until the next conflict gets worse and worse and close to another war Yeah, I think that this is something that we need to stand very clear Mito is not a defensive Organization we you ask us to to show some maps that shows the strategy and This situation is awful. We are we have a war in Europe but we need to think about as you said the future and That's something that is also a struggle that we have to do organized But also in our own countries like we are part like I don't know our countries for instance The ones that we are here in Are part of NATO and that's something that we need to to fight we need to to assume that military architectures military alliances a Produces wars and not defend peace and we need to really think towards a future that needs some Really huge issues to tackle We are in the middle of the pandemic We have to deal with the climate crisis and we need to really focus on what's ahead We need to also structure This process has been summit to to say that we have this moment in Madrid in June and we need to really think together on NATO and the role of NATO in in in everything I Don't know what we didn't we don't want to To end this episode talking also about about this issue of peace Because for this we are not meaning only the absence of war We mean that we need to really think on a genuine alternative to to our world We need to take action the base movements a common strategy to change things That's why we we also want to share this important event Organized today by cold pink and CND on Ukraine are this evening at a CP a six PM a city time So please tune in Thank you, Nora. Thank you for this call to action and for the For this event and also for the reminder that the main enemy is in our own countries Leap Knecht famously said that a hundred years ago over a hundred years ago at this point So we have to hold accountable our own governments for direct and indirect warfare as York points out This actually leads to direct warfare inevitably For weapon deliveries for sanctions for overt and covert interference for nuclear armaments and all In fact just prioritizing military alliances Over alliances and agreements for cooperation and common and you know common Common goods for the people So I think this is again the call to join for the peace summit in Madrid where we will try to confront NATO and exactly this agenda and make the people heard but until then we need to protest this war immediately and then think of and Quite frankly while we are at it. Maybe we should also consider protesting all other wars that are going on Currently that have been completely off the table as if as if they didn't happen As people pointed out, you know, like there is a war going on in Yemen Afghanistan is barely what three months ago people are suffering tremendously in Afghanistan as a direct consequence of this war That's been going on for years So while we go out there and protest this war that is seemingly on our doorsteps. We should be protesting all wars Going on in all countries. I Want to thank York for coming for joining us today. Thank you Nora for guiding us through this Next year, we'll talk to we'll hear from our Italian friends next week next week. Not next year next week Thank you. Thank you for pointing out. I'm trying to think long-term next week next week We will speak with Gianno Granato who is the national spokesperson for Poteira Al Popolo They will be talking on how NATO affects the internal political processes in member countries So on topics like sovereignty democracy and social and environmental equity I think that it's going to be very interesting. It dives even deeper into the relations of NATO and its member countries and They will do so in Italian. So please tell your Italian friends and brush up on your Italian Stay safe and keep fighting NATO and war and thank you very much for joining See you next week. Thank you. Also people's dispatch for yeah people's dispatch. Thank you Bye-bye You