 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648. I'm Ron Basil Chapman here at Tiger Technicians Hour and this is Thursday, October the 7th and we're looking at a really strong move to the upside. It does have 500 points, at 34,917. Just about to bump into this, right here, this Chapman wave, let me just expand that. This is the inside track there. You see that little green and red, a little narrow channel. I call that the inside track. It's either a support level or it's a resistance level. It's either a propellant or a repellant. It's been a repellant now many times since the 35,631, all-time high of August the 16th. When you think about, over the last couple of days, I've tried to spend a lot of time just, I've looked at charts but I'm also trying to just step back and say, wait a minute, these are the negatives, these are the positives. As I'm looking at it, I'm saying, well, if these are the negatives, why would the Dow only go from the 35,600 down to the 33,600, 2,000 points in the space of months? Is August the 16th? September the 16th? We're almost at October the 16th and we're still under the all-time high. 7%, 8%, that's nothing given two months of consolidation. And yet when you read the newspaper, when you listen to what's going on, there is just, I mean, you've got inflation, you've got yields skyrocketing, you've got the COVID variant, the Delta variant, you know, what happens with politicians is in the beginning they're very slow because they're waiting for everybody else and then what happens is they pick up energy and then it doesn't matter what the issue is, it's every issue and then they start the legislation and then when the horse is way out of the barn, the door's already, you could close the door and open the door, it doesn't matter, the horse is not coming back into the barn, they are busy legislating very unrealistically, right? So it doesn't matter what it is, that's what we're looking at, whether it's medical, whether it is economic, whether it is financial, it doesn't matter. So I try to put that aside and all week we've been wanting to buy from my subscribers, we are still longer down in a core position, way back from the low of last year, we've traded up and down and up and down and we've bought the diamonds almost every day this week, not today because yesterday we got it and this time we've made money on each one of the balances, we just got stopped out and I was going to flash an email to at least an update to subscribers but I generally don't do that or I usually give a warning, I say there could be an update and I just thought it's a little unfair for those people who are expecting just one newsletter and just an occasional update. I should have done that because that was the move that really picked up strength. We went in from under 340 on the diamonds and here it is at 349, 9 points higher. This is based off from yesterday to today, same time. So all I can say is that's fine because we have some positions that are really doing, in fact we have a stock that we just bought and it's at an all-time high as we speak. So I can't complain, I'm going to say that we bought that today and it's done very nicely, days young, but I loved everything about it, the sector it's in, it's under the radar, it's doing what it held while the market was pulling back and had all the ingredients and I thought I can't dive into the diamonds that this price probably should have but I just risk reward I wanted this to look better to me and of course the one we bought just a few days ago has gone from 113 to 119 in just a few days so we're not complaining and some of our other stocks have held really well. So that's not the issue, the issue is let's go through them separately. Look at the S&P, the S&P now this is 500 stocks and it goes from 45, 45, the higher of the 2nd of September down to 4278, so that's what 5%, 6%, that's not a bad deal and look at this, the weekly chart making lower lows every single week has made low lows and so far lower highs and yet it's held this trend line, it went under it twice now last week and this week and look it's bounced back it's now above the 9th period moving average and the 9th is not even close to being below the 14th period moving average and yet the news out there, if you dig deep there are a lot of things, oil, I mean oil prices are skyrocketing for anyone who does a lot of travelling, you know that so and if you're talking about okay so we'll move to battery do you know what the prices are for cars and I mean prices have gone up, they're not giving discounts I'll know today in fact I'll be involved in something today I'm going to get a good feel for just where the 2022 automobiles which many haven't started showing up in the showrooms yet just a bunch of things and I think this is an important part of the criteria that we look at, we've got China, we've got just so many things going on and yet where else do people want to go they want to go to the stock market because it's become a thing it's become a thing for the younger crowd and that's really important and they won't give up on the thing that they're attached to until it blows up and there's no chance yet at least for them that I'm thinking at this point that it's going to blow up enough for them to say never touching this again for five years so I look at the price and I say this is not bad action at all it's not great but it's not bad and look at the monthly chart I don't even know if October is going to be a peak B because there's a chance who knows what happens 45, 45.86 starts an extension of Leg B for October well even if it's November so what I'm saying is there are a lot of things that can make you terribly nervous but as Larry likes to say do your homework that's the best thing that you can do and if you do that at least you are more in command of the market than it's in command of you that's I mean what more could you ask for all right let's go to the QQQ the QQQ nice rally it's up 1.52% down's up 1.50% S&P's 1.44% so far this is good action but it's got a full the gap it's got to get into the 366's 367's it's got to try for this downtrend line by next week let's see right there and I know I occasionally get sense things like Elliott Wave etc and all I can say is I'm going to get rid of that we aren't short anything anymore we were short and nice gain and the QQQ's on the short side we're only along in this particular position looking for a chance maybe we're going back to the short side within a day or two as the arch formation if it starts to appear so the QQQ's have a long way to go 50 period explanation moving average is 366.50 it's about a point and a half from here and then you get this whole series of inside track repellent sites so I think the NDX100 still has a lot of work to do can I do it sideways maybe this is the IWM before we wrap up this segment nice move up 1.72% one of the better moves cheap at 7.8 up we'll be back that was a chapter type technicians hour that was a 5.15 that's at least up 62 are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TV Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's Daily Market Newsletter Market Insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter today and try all of our 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about stuck in the range because it's cold cold is now unchanged it's in 1761.6 it's stuck in this range but for for the very first time I'm looking at the GDX starting to show some sign of strength it's up 21 cents 30.57 I prefer to see the GDX rallying before gold that's usually a sign that all of a sudden the area of the gold miners is showing signs of life and when it does that it means that it's back in play as a sector rather than as a specific commodity that to me I prefer so a question yesterday was a Newmont mining I said maybe nibble tape could take a little nibble there it's a little better today it's up 42 cents 54.95 it's actually breaking to the upside of the channel that has been in it went under it now it's over it the MACD is improving the 9-period moving average has a lot of work to do before it crosses positive and that matches the stochastic only a 31% on balance is not that great but it is improving so that's the one that we were to ask about and I said yep looking out timing wise it's hard to say but if the GDX starts to rally now rather than just gold that would be a good sign so this is a good sign right now I had a question in the den would I look at HL HL is sorry this is in Tiger this is in Tiger YouTube yes HL is trading at 50.50 up 10 cents it's a little bit like Newmont mining in that it's really sluggish to get out of its down mode 551 this is what I would recommend because the GDX is starting to rally a little bit days young anything can happen I'm just going to suggest at 551 what you want to do with it but I'm thinking you are looking to see either you're in it or you're looking to buy it yes start your engines right here at 551 but I would only treat it as a small starter position and I would add to it if it shows every day if it shows a little bit more strength and then I would treat the stop on the 551 position if you got in now I would have to give it a little run this is your starter position 58 at the moment I'd say 538 it's a bigger percentage than I would normally do but this is because the doji candle in the weekly chart is saying this is the third doji that we've got and it's not even Friday yet so I don't know but it's saying that it's trying to form some kind of a base to at least balance so that's I would now say 553 somebody has been listening yeah so start your position now another question I had so you remember we were looking at the ones I said I think people think is natural gas but it's actually nova gold this is one that we usually buy when we're going into the gold area and I'm thinking speculation let's just see for a percentage gain missed completely even though I looked at it almost every day this is a single leg A from the move that it had on the 28th of September of 648 it's trading at 754 it's over a dollar higher so in a single move to the upside so I do expect it will have a bit of a pullback but look at the weekly chart for the first time this is unbelievable since it broke down this is the week of the 18th of June back in the 9 9 yeah 950 area and it plunged down to that in the low 6s now it's the first time it's above the 14 period moving average in the weekly chart let alone the 9 which it couldn't touch this time it's not only broken but so for the week is young there's still a whole day and a half to go but so for that's good so I suspect that there is some play going on in the gold area yes so I'm answering questions and I do think this is something to be aware of I thought it was just that people thought NG was natural gas NG NG peak F top yesterday I shouldn't say top I think it's going to be a peak F top and a pullback coming up just with crude oil look at crude oil crude oil also an F top if it breaks to a new high I have to consider that it's a G stash C and it's going to be going even higher but so far I think I've been saying for the past few days I think crude oil is just about to have a digestive phase small one in the daily I don't talk about it all but it is a leg D in the monthly chart so we're going to be watching that closely I also said I look at silver silver is trading slightly higher high so it's in leg B gray leg B at 22.73 up 19 cents yeah I like this but I would say just patent let me see PAAS this is past Pan American silver yep second day of green candle still got a lot of work to do so treat it as about I treat them all just as a balance because if as long as the dollar is showing strength that is going to take precedence right now dollars down three ticks at 94.18 after making a peak E high just about a week ago at 94.50 ish and it's trading at 94.19 holding very nicely in the upper band if you look at the EUR UST well I'm covering a lot here EUR tried to rally and failed and went to a lower low yesterday leg after down side there's nothing technically that I can see that says it's going to have anything more than anything like a balance the weekly chart has gone to the Chatham Wave inside track propellant zone if this fails that's going to be very bad at 1.15 6 up 0000 6 it's just it's really struggling and look at the monthly chart monthly chart says the struggle should continue UST JPY JPY there it is trading it looks like the dollar because it trades in the direction not the same pattern necessarily but in the direction of the dollar and that's what it's doing right now dollar made its high just about over a week ago this went to just over 112 pulls back to 110 bounces to the 111s and now it's at 111.46 sideways action I wanted to look at high grade copper copper there it is high grade copper is in the lower range not breaking out not breaking down it's just kind of stuck sideways I wanted to also look at Baba someone in the dinner was a little someone said something about any Baba group that was it was that all that said that let's see Warren Buffett is going or was it Warren anyway that Buffett has been buying I think they said something like that now you can see what a big move up 8% but it's only up 12 dollars and 156 it's gone from the 300s down to the 137 338 138.43 level four days ago 100 this is a really nice move 50 points fabulous move but this is what I've been saying that I think that the Chinese stocks if they don't take out the lows and FXI just made a little double bottom yesterday didn't take out the left side low and now it's bounced up 3.92% at 3950 I treat this as a bounce it could have a little bit more legs to the upside treat it as a bounce if you're looking at Baidu was the other one I always look at you and when I get questions on it this is the one that's held better it's holding better so Baidu up 7 not as at 156.48 it held beautifully this channel line that I had drawn in look at that Jaffa we've inside tracked Pro Pellum zone and it's going to up the level in fact it's a 10 high this is a better looking chart than the others Baidu I'll be back in a moment does a 5% does a Jaffa thank you Mrs. Owl I feel a lot to talk about are you having fun 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going on during the break one of the statements was NVIDIA the most hyped stock that this person has heard of yep I agree about NVIDIA but I do also believe that NVIDIA has a really good product line up they're the ones that have really produced the goods at this point I'm putting together with a couple of questions that came my way about the estimators so NVIDIA is up $5 a 2.12 up 2.43% the estimators and semiconductors up 2.16% to $259 I think both of them are in the digestive phase I don't think they're going anywhere but believe me when the market starts to come back again those semis the semiconductors they have to be in the those chips are absolutely imperative that's the commodity we used to have fuel as a commodity that generated decades and decades and decades of growth around the world microchips over the past decades have done the same thing into the 20th and then the 21st century now in the 21st century and that's going to continue that's our energy source for the economy so yes I wouldn't have a mindset that says oh hyped it's the end of the world this is a hoax these are real companies and they're doing real things a lot of them are actually stuck right now because they don't quite know what to do they were late in making fabs etc. so just don't get carried away just look at the chart says the semis $276 down to $246.30 so what is that big deal is about 12-13% some of the semiconductor stocks took a deeper hit some didn't but don't get carried away so the next question I had was let's see hi Basil I hope you're well and thanks for your great market calls as of late you've been spot on but it'd be possible to take a look at SDC SDC Smile Direct Club as a long-term hold it looks like it might be bottoming thank you very much Basil Chris so Chris this is what I'd be looking at I have a problem and the problem is I did not know that I happened to know someone who's directly involved with this company SMCS SDC I have absolutely I never talked to them about the company I know nothing about it so I'm just mentioning this is kind of a clarification of a situation here that I've seen this go by in the ticket for years and I've always said gosh this really moves quickly it's such a low price thing it used to be in the teens but then mostly it's been in the single digits and it has these big percentage moves up and down and then I saw this thing about the lawsuit a huge lawsuit I don't know where it stands I have no idea all I'm going to say is I saw this go by the ticket two days ago in the I knew it was in the fives and suddenly it's trading in the 580 area and then yesterday it moved up and today it's pulling back 34 cents so let me just do two things because now I have to say look at the chart forget about everything you heard you don't even know anything other than that you know someone who is directly involved with the company and this is by a friends because it's a friend's daughter so I'm just telling you where I stand that I've heard these things I never ever mentioned it when I spoke to the daughter at one or two times I've seen her over the last year doesn't live anywhere near here and I've never mentioned never discussed it never discussed anything about the company but I just wanted to mention that your mindset and the chart are sometimes two separate things now from what they do I've always thought gee that's kind of impressive what they do I'm not talking about the business side I'm just talking about the product but I am saying that it's just kind of stuck I would prefer to say to you rather build a position on strength than build it on weakness so because it's popped up like this and you haven't said anything about whether you have a position already I'm just going to take a wild guess that at some point because this is something you've thought for a long time when you say you want kind of a more intermediate to long term position that you've followed enough to say this is something you're very interested in here's the way I would and I'm going to say initially here's the way I would play it because I don't think I can moves like this going from $5 what was the load just I mean just look at the load the load comes in round about $4.63 it may double bottoms round about let's call it late August August 23rd was the last one and then it takes off and in a week maybe a week maybe six sessions six sessions over over five sessions but let's call it a six sessions because it might be a weekend it actually goes to $6.23 it has a let's be honest about it let's call it an 18% gain wait a minute it then pulls back sharply makes an arch formation holds the left side load and then it goes from 512 power it zaps all the way to 742 another big move and then what happens before you can blink an eye over two and a half week or even three week period you're looking at this back down at $5 and two cents but wait a minute as you're blinking your eye and rubbing your eye remember this is like my this is my like my rogue wave when at 12 the high tide at noon and at 12 or 6 you get this rogue wave that wets everybody but then the tide continues going out this is the same thing open your eyes and the next thing you know it's at today's high of 623 and now it's at a little bit of a pullback from 683 down to 640 that's 40 cents that's an 8% that's a big move so you've got to consider that this thing is really volatile but it is stuck in a range if it was making higher highs and higher lows and then following through on a weekly basis rather than a weekly basis making lower highs and lower lows I'd say I have no I have no qualms saying to you start your position yet and don't put a stop unless you're prepared to have a stop at 580 just give it a day or so I can't do that there's no way I can do that so I'm going to say to you why didn't you nibble here Chris 541 I all I can say is when it stops making lower highs and lower lows and does a higher highs and higher lows I'm going to say to you I like the action it needs to break this long-term down-chain line if you listen to Larry he talks about the symmetry I always do this I used to have a cup shape formation they made symmetry symmetry this is the first time there's a chance with the magnetic crossing positive in the weekly chart the histogram has just turned up it's 0.07 the stochastic's finally got out of the single digits and the teens and it's gone to 26% so all I can say is you do your homework on the fundamental side I'm doing my homework on the technical side and I'm saying to you just start your position I would like I would prefer you to start your position and you might have to miss once twice maybe even three times because then when you pick it up correctly it's really going to move to the upside so this position at 642 it's just a star little small tiny position and on this position I'd still have a stop and stop would be at about 617 that's 5% so a little more than I'd like let's do that and on Monday we'll look at the game tomorrow maybe but Monday we'll look at the game start a position I can't do until until seven twenties I'll be back in a moment whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all the ideas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at Tiger at TFNN.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with 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one-minute chart and E-slash B in the two-minute chart all I can say is that this is about the area where we start to see some resistance but you'd have to see a pullback by this afternoon in the S&P E-mini 6250 right now at 440 416.50 this is a huge move I tend to try not to mess around trying to pick tops when the S&P is actually up over 52 points somehow they can keep it in place sideways for a little while longer later on at about 310 if you all start to see a slide and the S&P is below 4400 then I say yep you might see some bad news or something coming out but right now you've got to be careful if this goes to 4425 the high today is 4421.50 if it goes that high that's just something really good going on and it's a good last into tomorrow we'll see I'm anticipating within two days or so by Monday coming up this Monday you can start to see some kind of a pullback we'll see I'm gonna get the H pattern so that's all I can tell you there so what I want you to say is Marvell and I I'm always surprised at how many people I actually know in businesses or peripherally I know when in fact I didn't have any contact with them whatsoever just to know off like the SDC and as I said this person I shouldn't say has nothing to do with the actual company of the manufacturing anything has to do something peripheral to the company so here it is Marvell I used to actually teach the son of someone who worked at Marvell I'm not even sure if they're still there trading at 66.63 this is Marvell not Marvell this is not Marvell but Marvell technology semiconductors spectacular move in two days game from the 59s to 66.62 right now you see this is the whole thing and I've got to emphasize that in the semiconductor the way the rotation goes through advanced I don't want to do it today maybe I'll do it tomorrow advanced micro devices going from the single digits to triple digits every couple of years it has a spectacular move and then it gives it all up they rotate Taiwan semiconductor same thing it just goes on and on so this is one that's absolutely in the sweet spot right now it's in leg D in the monthly chart but does it have to turn out to be B it couldn't turn out to be maybe I don't think so in the weekly chart and I don't know if this is a single leg A this is one of the most unusual chart patterns I've ever seen I'm just giving it a maybe it's an A maybe it's an F or a G I don't know what the data is it looks to be purely objective this looks like an A and then it could pull back and make nominal B and a C and a D but it does look like an A it's in the semiconductor area where there are chip shortages they've done something that says chip shortages not us because look at the chart all time high not just a monthly or all time this is an all time high so let's get out of there so Mars the question came in what about Mosaic the Mosaic company I liked it the other day remember I like it again it's a 3964 up a dollar 24 3.34% in leg C in the day I like this as an area of favorability I thought about jumping in today but I didn't want to buy the gap up I wanted to buy what we bought just it turns out to be a gap up it's not a gap up the money but we got it just right it's a different sector I just I'm trying to be sector oriented this is a sector that's on fire right now Mosaic core phosphate and potash I like it so yes you asked about it nice move yes alright a real quick question in the den about Nike there is Nike yeah coming off the bottom this is a leg B and it's just a counter trend balance I just don't think it's ready yet I do think it'll go to leg D in the monthly chart to an all time high I think it needs a lot more time maybe it's getting closer to Christmas hey I don't know about the shortages and the container ships etc but all I can say it's a great move of a very oversold condition it's just releasing some of that angst on the upside so that's the way I'm looking at it right now yep Ford Motor Company I've been wondering what on earth is going on yet made a peak e-top look at this big move today up five and a half percent at 14.87 up 76 cents wow this is a nice move so that's the reason when I was looking at all these things I said to myself why would General Motors I didn't get what they say look at the same thing as Ford big move today they can say that by 2030 over 35 they'll only be electric I always say you remember that it was when I started the show back in 2003 I think that was my first February or March was my first monthly newsletter opening call very soon after that I discussed isn't that very soon after that the Prius came and people said oh that's the end of all of the wheels and I said no if you look at the history of innovation it takes 40 or 50 years to build an infrastructure until that becomes the norm I said forget it it takes a long time do you know that the percentage of electric vehicles on the road it's just I think it's in the single digits it's very small we will not see that for decades where gas engines are just outmoded it's going to take a long long time and not only that people have to be able to afford it and these EVs they have to come down and I was saying before the prices are jumping especially for either the hybrid or the electric vehicles prices are soaring so whatever you think you're saving on gas huh you're overpaying for the car at this particular point unless you're finding one that's not in favor but then that might be the ideal car so I just wanted to get that out of the way government subsidies don't forget when those things stop that changes the whole atmosphere so whatever they're talking about now if you look talking about decades fascinating I've been reading a lot about the skyscrapers especially the building I saw this show last night on national public TV whatever it is NPR the building of this skinny skyscraper in Manhattan what a project when I always say man well as human beings ingenuity it's just so unbelievable go to the moon I mean anything that has to do with numbers we are fantastic anything that has to do with human nature not exactly right I mean when you think of what you read about the just the absolute viciousness on online whatever it is whether it is Facebook whatever human nature has a way of showing itself but when we come to anything scientific we are amazing anything to do with them it's like the bible they got all this thing about cubits they were perfect with cubits but so and so it came down and said so and so you can't even do something when you see it the people I teach today a thousand times how did I get off there that was a 541 we'll be back in a moment and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 830am to 4pm eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment 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by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors are you looking for a secured investment which pays you on a monthly basis the target first mortgage program may be the program for you the best rate on a five-year in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year or $1,000 per 100,000 invested the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly on secured high value billable properties in St. Petersburg, Florida the investment is for four years paying 7% per year or $7,000 per 100,000 invested your investment is secured by high value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 do you want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured target first mortgage the target first mortgage program may be just the program for you the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com we're talking about pencil towers I don't know what they call them they call them tool something other instead of using the word skyscraper but so I'll be following this very closely because remember I got my skyscraper theory I still believe that's an avalanche and intact particular technique but we don't have to use it right now so look at this is spiraling up it's at a new recovery high in a leg D in the monthly chart finally a leg D could be very interesting how this closes in October but that's because why I didn't get to it, why did I not get to it I get to it right now that's because we've been talking about this the TLT is at a lower low rates are going higher if you talk about inflation everything is there to say at least for 3 to 6 months we should have an inflation period and yet the market is ignoring it because it's looking at other things you've got the debt seeding that just evidently some of this kind of potential resolution there I don't know what it is but whatever we're looking at you've got to consider that higher rates are going to affect some areas and HGX is having a good move today so when things get oversold this is the Philadelphia housing sector index great move it's up to 2% up 958 454.66 so remember keep in mind you've got to think of these things separately look at the charts and do you as Larry says do your homework so as I'm going to wrap up here because we've got Larry coming up we've got thinker Swarm then we've got Steve Rhodes Dave White, Tom O'Brien check out my opening call my daily newsletter so far a very strong day so far holding all I can say is this if the Dow which is up testing this resistance it has to go through into the 35,000 probably easy area or high on the closing base to say I'm done with this straight line support now we won't be resistance and the VIX index is trading down sharp is down under 20 to 19.32