 Mae oedd eich myfyrdd yn y cyflwyno ar hollol i dda i gyda'r rai gandd, a dwi'n ei chyflwgr yma, yma'r ddechrau nesaf, y gweithio ar gyflwgr yn ei ddweud yn ymlaen, yw ymlaen i'r gwerthddol, a'r ddwylo'r ddwylo'r gwasanaeth, yn y mwylo'r hyfforddau ar gyflwyno, ddwylo'r roi, ddwylo ar gwasanaeth, y dysgu o fung diwethaf, sut y gallwch i ddechrau am ddwyll ymlaen, yma'r ddwylo'r rhaid yn ychynig. Ond yn dod, mae gennym i'n gweithio, mae gennym i'r perthynau sy'n gweithio'n gweithio'r gwahanol yn gynghreifft dynnu gyd yn gweithio'r gwahanol, gynghreifft yn y cyfnod, rhai'r risoedd o bwylig, o'r resuol, o'r deall, rhai'r rhai'r risoedd, o'r rhai'r risoedd, a rhai'r risoedd o ran ddiddordeb eu ffordd i'r greu gweithio, sy'n meddwl unrhyw deilig yn siŵr ...fyniad o'r dweud y gallwn ni'n meddwl. Ac sy'n cael ei bod wedi bod yn oed i'r gweithio... ...gweithio a'r nifer o gweithio... ...ynghylch am gyllideb gyda gysylltu cyffredig... ...a gweithio cyffredig yn cynnig ffyrdd a gweithio. Yn ceisio, mae'n meddwl... ...a byddai'n golygu ffyrdd... ...y ffrindwyr y gwaith... ...y'n meddwl i'r gweithio'r gweithio... ...y'n meddwl yn gweithio'r gweithio. Rwyf i ddweud â'r llwyddiadau yma i chi'n gwybod i gyfnodrhau a'r adegau'r llwyddiadau o'r gweld i chi'r collu. ac mae'r adegau yw'r adegau erbyn i gyfnodr hwnnw, yn gweud i gynnig o gyfnodr, GDP, i ddechrau i gŵr, sy'n credu bod yn rhan o'r proses. Mae'n rhan o'r proses. Mae'n gweld i'r llefydd o'r gwir yw'r gweld i'r llwyddiadau. Fig an prickw the beard is that we travel down a path that sees nature really a place to put our waste or as the way in which we get various kinds of natural resources. We're not really seeing it as the underpinning of economic activity, which as we, increasingly, know it actually is. We're beginning to see some consequences as a result of not prioritising protection of the environment as a core economic activity and competence fel sometimes is facing relating to extreme weather and some of the effects of high rainfall. The damage caused by flooding, coastal anoddation are just at the beginning of what seems to be quite a lot of consequences in the system already. If we are to turn around this set of consequences that are going to increasingly cause the process of progress to be interrupted, what do we need to do? Well, the first thing we need to understand is that nature has real value and in a very practical and economic sense. This goes back to some very fundamental aspects of the earth system that we hardly ever talk about. One of them, of course, relates to soils that supply nearly all of our food. About 98% of the human food supply is being produced with the benefits of soil processes. Y gallwn ddysgu'r bram o'r gyd-dŵr, ychydig i'r hyn i ddechrau dŵr, y cwmwyllt rŵr yn cymryd. Mae'r cyflwyneu cyllidau yn ymgeithio gael o'r rhaglen oed, yn y gall wedi'i gŵr o'r gwirio cyflwyneu. Fyddwch chi'n gyfrifio gweld llefyddiaeth yn ystod, o'r ysgol yn ymgyrch yn ystod yng nghylch, i'r ysgol yn cael ei gweld sy'n ddweud 6 miliwn o'r cyfnod o bobl. Mae'r cyfnod rhan o'r cyfnodau gweld, ac mae'n rhan o'r cyfnodau gweld yn cael euchologist. Mae'r cyfnodau'n cael eu chymdeithasol yn cael eu cyfnodau organig o'r cyfnodau yn cael eu cyfnodau, sy'n gofyn yn cyhoeddiol y nifer genedlai cyllid yn gael. Fyddiw'r cyfnodau yn cyfnod yng Nghymru yn ychydig o fawr o'r cyfnodau arweinyddol a'r cyfnodau ar gyfer y llefyn yn cael eu cyfnodau agro-coil ond toonhau'n i ddweud peolwyd yn y ffadaf honno bwysig iawn, yr oedd ymddangos bwysig iawn. Rydyn ni'n ffordd o'r pethau o'r hyn mae'n cyflasau, cynnig arlaed o'r pethau arweinydd am y glengwyr llehgar yma, ac yn tyf yn oes. Rydyn ni'n gweithio arlaed o'r pethau a'r ond o lot yn dglers o ddweud. Roedd yma ddweud cyfle yma, ac mae yma fyrrif yn gyfreidio'r ffordd. Felly we have issues in relation to the production of food. We also have issues in relation to soil degradation regarding the climate change problem. There's actually more carbon locked up in soils than there is in the atmosphere and all of the forests combined across the planet. And because of the way in which we're farming, we're depleting that carbon matter. This is basically a reduction of the organic material, which is mostly comprised of carbon-based molecules locked in the soil. The way in which we're farmed is depleting that material. It's turning into carbon dioxide and going into the air. So we face major challenges in relation to this fundamental asset, which is being degraded right across the planet, largely as a result of how we're doing farming. Of course growing in the soils is not only crops. Across the planet we have still large areas of natural and semi-natural ecosystem. This is a tropical rainforest and many of you will know that this is one of the repositories of much of life on earth. It's also a massive repository of carbon. We have millions indeed, billions of tonnes of carbon locked up in these ecosystems as they're being cut down, cleared for agriculture, so that carbon is going into the atmosphere. And indeed, if you look at the broad numbers being produced by some of the climate change experts, you realise that this source of emissions is bigger than global transport, including aviation. We get very excited about aeroplanes and trucks. The CO2 coming from deforestation is actually bigger. And if you add the CO2 coming from the soils beneath after the forests have been cleared, it's bigger still again. When you start to understand the value of these kinds of systems and look at the alternative strategies we've got, for example going down the renewable energy route to reduce emissions or investing in nuclear power, you realise that actually conserving the tropical rainforest is about the best deal we've got on the table. And indeed a report for the British government published about five years ago told us that halving the deforestation rate by 2030 compared with 2010 would deliver carbon benefits worth about $3.6 trillion. That's a lot of carbon benefit. If only we can find the mechanisms to be able to hang on to these systems so that they can carry on providing that benefit and others long into the future. And of course the tropical rainforest, as I said, they're not simply doing the job of storing carbon for us, they're also home to most of the terrestrial biodiversity on the earth. Animals, plants, microorganisms, fungi, including creatures like this red-eyed tree frog, which increasingly we're discovering, have got all sorts of hidden benefits that they've developed over millions of years of evolution. It's an innovation lab that's been going on for millions of years and like all good innovation, many experiments are taking place, some work, some don't. The ones that work are based upon new things being invented by biological organisms, including new chemicals and including one that is found in this particular frog that has been discovered to block HIV infection. So medicines are being developed as a result of innovation that's been going on through evolution in ecosystems across the planet for literally millions of years. That biodiversity, of course, to be of any use to us and it's not just for medicine, it's also for food and increasingly for biomimicry, for use in design, for architecture and for energy systems. We're getting new ideas coming from wildlife. If we're going to do that, these animals and plants have to continue to exist and of course the clearance of those natural habitats that's releasing carbon is also causing these creatures to become more scarce and in many cases to disappear. So we've got tangible assets that have huge economic value. The ability of soils to produce food, the carbon capture in forests, the innovation that's been invented by different wildlife over eons of time. But there's something on top of this that I discovered through my work that's potentially even more important still, not only the different elements of the natural world but the relationships between them. And when it comes to relationships, perhaps one of the most profoundly important for life on the land is that between insects and flowering plants. This developed about 100 million years ago, it's turned into a form of mutualism between the insects and the plants. The plants producing pollen and nectar to attract animals like this bumble bee and then the bumble bee moving between flowers, moving the pollen, enabling the plant to complete its life cycle. It's a highly intricate set of relationships that have now evolved and it's not only important for the functioning of that tropical rainforest I showed you and many other ecosystems, it's also vital for global agriculture and indeed people have begun to try and put some numbers around the value of animals like bees in terms of the pollination work they're doing and have come up with some big totals. For example, the value of pollination services coming from creatures like this estimated to be in the order of $190 billion per year. That's not a small number but we're wiping these animals out. You may think to yourself, well that sounds like a highly theoretical figure that's been introduced into this discussion. Well let me give you a practical example of how you can reach figures like that and actually you can find an example of this right here in this country in southwestern China where during the 1980s very high levels of pesticide application were advocated to kill pest animals in orchards growing apples and pears. That worked in killing the pests and fortunately it also killed all the bumble bees. To the point today where farmers 30 years later are still having to climb in the apple trees in the spring with feather dusters and paint brushes and move the pollen between the blossoms by hand because the bees that once did the work for free are gone and one bumble bee nest to be replaced by human labour requires 20 people. Think about that from an economic point of view and then we find even more surprising connections between economic benefit and human well-being in relation to public health. This is a picture of a vulture one of three species that used to be very common in India until the early 1990s. They were inadvertently wiped out by the use of a drug called dichlofenac this is a anti-inflammatory drug it got into very widespread use in veterinary medicine in the countryside in India. What people didn't realise even though it's a good medicine for sick animals is that if this substance was in the body of a cow or buffalo when it died and if that dead animal was consumed by vultures which nearly all of them were it was lethal to those birds it caused organ failure. So this drug was very good for veterinary use actually was toxic to vultures and these birds went from a total population of about 40 million in the early 1990s to the early 2000s they'd effectively been wiped out become functionally extinct 40 million birds down to a few tens of thousands. Now these things eat a lot of rotting meat and between them those 40 million birds were cleaning up something like 12 million tonnes of rotting flesh per year. Once you take the vultures out you've got a nutritional windfall for other animals other scavengers and what happened as the vultures declined India's wild dog population rocketed as the wild dog population grew so hazards to public health increased as well. Dogs are of course the principal vector of rabies and in rural India 7 million more dogs which is estimated what occurred as a result of the vultures leaving more food there began to spread this disease more widely than would have been the case to the point where researchers looking at this discovered that something like 50,000 more people died of rabies between 93 and 2003 as a result of these birds being removed then would have occurred had they still been there. So there was an economic upside from the introduction of Daeclothinac from a veterinary point of view but the economic downside arising from that and other factors including the cost of cleaning up buffalo and cows was actually pretty huge to the point where the researchers behind the research I just mentioned suggest that something like 34 billion dollars in added costs were accru to the Indian economy because of the loss of these birds nobody saw that coming huge value for public health that actually was removed without anybody really doing any kind of economic calculation just seemed like a good idea to introduce this new method on top of food and health we have a set of relationships in the natural world regenerating our water supply and actually fresh water replenishment on earth is one of the most amazing stories that I've come across over my many years involvement with this including the role of oceanic plankton which are releasing substances into the atmosphere that helps cloud seeding this is really incredible you can't explain the amount of cloud on earth every day without invoking a role from marine photosynthetic plankton and then once of course the clouds meet the land they're falling onto ecosystems whether they're natural or semi-natural and some of those ecosystems can no longer process fresh water as they once did this is a tropical rainforest feeding a tropical river and that tropical river is going to run a hydroelectric dam it's going to irrigate crops downstream but if we remove the forest then we find that the fresh water cycle is interrupted and again another big hit for the economy as a result of having degraded nature I was in the ivory coast two weeks ago researching a new book about tropical rainforests and went to meet farmers who are growing cocoa this is the country's main export it's the main plank of economic development there they're finding reduced yields and reduced yields they're finding because of reduced rainfall and guess where the rainfall was coming from there's a clue in the name it was coming from the rainforest which is no longer there I came across some Chinese engineers downstream from where I met the cocoa farmers building a new hydroelectric dam I asked them if they had ever heard about any connection between tropical deforestation and less rain and therefore less river and therefore less power for the dam they didn't know what I was talking about a huge risk to that piece of infrastructure as a result of an ecosystem being damaged without people joining the dots the water supply is of course absolutely crucial and if there's anything that shapes the economic performance of any part of the world it's access to fresh water the time when you see the importance of this of course is the time when you don't have it and in a recent visit to Brazil where they've had a very large-scale drought across the south east of the country two and two is beginning to be put together but as a result of a drought that's been really quite disruptive including for the country's power supply because that nation has 80% of its electricity coming from hydroelectric structures if the river flow goes down so does the power production stranded assets of a different kind the oceans from where that fresh water is ultimately being derived by evaporation and the activity of plankton of course is also another source of our food marine fish worth about $278 billion per year in terms of the GDP generated another $100 billion on top of that in terms of ancillary services like building of ships and everything else this is a huge industry and of course not only important for food supply but also for employment where did the fish come from they did not exist in isolation they're a bit like bumble bees that pollinate the crops the fish are living in an ecosystem at the bottom of that ecosystem is the photosynthetic plankton that are helping it to rain at the same time as being at the bottom of a food web the ultimate is feeding these more complex animals that are the basis of so much protein especially in developing countries and those ecosystems that are making it rain and providing 90 million tonnes of fish a year are also responsible for another important human need take a deep breath about 50% of the oxygen in this room is being replenished by those same plankton that are at the bottom of that food chain and indeed those same plankton are taking a lot of the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and taking it into the deep ocean these services between them in terms of what the oceans are doing have been estimated by some environmental economists to be worth about 21 trillion dollars per year we are abusing this system in a way which suggests it's absolutely worth nothing so we have a number of services that are being increasingly understood by researchers looking at the practical values we're getting from the natural world including in relation to human health beyond the management of disease a lot of people are concerned in public health agencies across the world about the effects of obesity and also the increasing prevalence of mental illness there's now a fantastically rich body of information and data that tells us that one of the best ways of both preventing these trends from getting much more out of hand as well as treating them is access to natural environments and indeed people doing economic calculations about the value of nature to society are discovering that the value is much bigger around areas where people live urban areas green space in cities green space by the edge of cities is delivering literally billions of dollars of value across planet earth but what do we do to these places we see them as prime building land huge value being lost some value being created but certainly the need for a more joined up approach some of the people looking at the place of humankind in nature have tried to quantify some of these headings that I've talked about a little today in terms of the carbon capture service the way in which nature is replenishing our water pollinating crops and they've reached them really quite surprising conclusions so Robert Costanza a famous environmental economist who's been working on this subject for many years published a paper in 2014 in the journal Nature setting out his most recent assessments as to the value of all of these things that are underpinning economic development and human wellbeing and to cut along the story short he reaches the conclusion that the value of nature to the economy in terms of this flow of services never mind the resources in terms of the oil on the minerals or the timber from the forest but the flow of benefits those ecosystem services are worth about twice as much as global GDP so whilst talking of that misconception I mentioned a second ago we're trying to maximise GDP and that's something we can broadly measure the bit of the economy we're not measuring and which underpins all of the GDP is being eliminated and nobody seems to think that this is something that should be on any balance sheet for a corporation or indeed a country this is one of the gravest oversights in history it seems to me and invokes the idea of natural capital this is the notion of looking at those different bits of the environment as we call it sometimes I described a second ago and seeing them as comparable to financial capital assets whereby you derive a dividend every year a flow of fresh water a flow of pollination services the capture of carbon the protection of coastal areas from flooding all of these things we can begin to put numbers on because all of them are real and indeed that's something which it seems to me needs to be on the agenda of organisations like this and indeed the organisations that come to meetings to talk about the economic future of the world because if we don't begin to rectify some of the failures as to where economy is cannibalising ecology in negative ways then the costs down the line will be very considerable indeed seems to me at times that the way in which we run the economy is a bit like a Ponzi scheme whereby you take the capital you pass it out to the people who'd like to use the capital you count that as a flow of benefits of dividends but actually what you're doing is annihilating the capital asset in the process of passing out the dividends now if you run a Ponzi scheme in the world of finance you go to prison if you run a Ponzi scheme in terms of rainforests, coral reefs and soils you tend to get a bonus that's something I think we need to look at as we look forward can we find ways of capturing the benefit of the carbon services being provided by tropical forests, temperate forests and boreal forests can we find the measures and mechanisms whereby we're going to eliminate the loss of species and do effective conservation in order to keep our options open for the future can we design agricultural landscapes whereby we see the economic benefits of pollinators and healthy soils and to be able to protect those as assets for the future rather than blowing them now for the benefit of so-called cheap food or the illusion of food security which is only building up problems for later can we investigate ecosystem services to understand the work being done by creatures like vultures in being able to protect public health from pathogens through maintaining a balance between different groups of animals and plants in the environment can we understand the ways in which the water cycle can be optimised rather than undermining the water cycle through deforestation, soil damage and indeed the increased acidification of the oceans can we look at the full benefits of the earth's commons including those taking place on the open seas where there is no country having any jurisdiction can we understand the incredible productivity of ocean food chains and harness those long into the future rather than taking all the fish today and seeing that as a means of generating profit and can we build resilience for the future by protecting coral reefs, grasslands and mangroves as the way in which we're going to buffer against the worst effects of climate change you start adding all these things together and it seems to me that looking after nature is the biggest no-brainer for the economy the world has ever seen if only we can get past this massive misconception whereby we see the destruction of nature as the price of progress because it's not true thank you very much indeed