 Good morning, and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 16th of November 2020, and the time has just gone 11.57 GMT. And it's been a fairly positive start to the European training session. On the global trade fund, things are looking a bit more positive. On the back of the news that 15 countries in Asia Pacific, including the likes of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and many others, just to name a few, signed up for a, signed up for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. This is going to make that block the largest trading block in the world. This is going to be seen as a step forward in trading relations between the various different nations. And many of those countries, you know, for example, Australia and China, have already had a fairly decent rebound from the COVID-19 crisis. So the view is that their economic recovery will probably speed up on the back of this announcement, on the back of this planned trade partnership. In addition to that, it's recently encouraging economic indicators in China overnight. Retail sales is probably the most important one in the bunch. In the last month, they grew by 4.3%, which is an improvement on the 3.3% registered in September. But economists were expecting a reading of 4.9, so it came in a bit below expectations. Industrial output grew by 6.9%, one change on the month in terms of growth and a top forecast, whereas fixed asset investments not only did it show an improvement on the month, it also managed to top forecast as well. On the election front in the US, for the first time, President Trump admitted that Joe Biden won the election. But of course, in true Trump fashion, he turned around and stated that there was fraud involved, cresting the result itself. This could be the beginning of the Donald exiting the White House. It could also be the beginning of President Trump going down a lengthy legal battle in terms of the results from certain states. Also, there's kind of on the continued optimism during the rounds in relation to the actual COVID-19 potential drug produced by both Little Pfizer and BioNTech. That seems to be in the mindset of the traders, and it's even though the actual health crisis continues to be an issue, because that's faced, and there are continued to be, sadly, an increase in the number of cases. It seems to me that we've just seen a news alert pop up saying European and US stocks spike higher, spike further on reports that Moderna, another big pharma company, found that their potential vaccine for COVID-19 has a 94.5% effective rate. So we're seeing progress made on that regard. So that's going to be adding to the overall story. Keep an eye out for airline stocks, keep an eye out for hospitality, pub chains, cinemas, gyms, and the likes, cruises. These are all sectors which were clobbered because of the pandemic, and on the back of the Pfizer-BioNTech optimism this time last week, we saw those stocks do well. So on the back of the Moderna story, we could see those ones do well also. As always, with this video, for those of you ready to follow, what I'll do is the usual rundown, whereby I'll look at the week ahead article, the major economic and corporate stories of the week, and then I will run through major indices, the major currency pairs, and on top of that, the major quantities. So starting off, taking a look at the article, it can be found on Insights. If you go to cmcmarcus.com under latest news analysis, you'll find our update. And we can see here that we have the economic indicators, which I already covered coming from China. Fold of Fold had well-received first half number of this morning. The stock was trading higher. EasyJet have full year results off tomorrow. In recent weeks and months, airlines have been very keen to cut their capacity because of the lean winter ahead. But keep in mind, they have very interesting to see what they have to say in their statement with respect to the possibility of vaccines. Also coming out tomorrow, we have US retail sales covering month of October. This is going to be interesting, because obviously for a few months now, the US economy doesn't have the additional unemployment benefit in place. So we can get a really good idea of what consumer sentiment is actually like over in the US. Speaking of that, we'll also have third quarter numbers coming out from Walmart. Some of the companies which managed to continue to operate throughout the COVID-19 crisis on one hand benefited from online sales, particularly online sales. Many of them had to have increased cost in relation to health and safety because of the pandemic itself. Tying in with that, Halifords have first half numbers. They saw an increase in the number of people looking to purchase bikes in the wake of the lockdown and activities, something to do. Nvidia, Chipmaker, they had third quarter numbers coming out on Wednesday. Target, US well-known US retailer, have third quarter numbers coming out on Wednesday also. Royal Mail are going to be in focus, first half numbers coming out, particularly on their courier service. Given the surge in online consumerism in the last few months because of the pandemic, we've seen the likes of FedEx and Royal Mail all do quite well on the back of that. On Friday, we have UK retail sales and public sector finances. Finally, in Friday, Williams, Sonoma, the maker of the household goods, they will be posting their third quarter numbers on Friday. We'll talk now about the major indices. This is a pretty common theme across all the indices. It wasn't that long ago, late October, early November. We saw European US stock workers either multi-month loads or multi-week loads. But since then, we've had a major move to the upside. This strong candle we're seeing here was the move that we saw last Monday on the back of the news from Pfizer and BioNTech, that their potential COVID-19 vaccine is 99% effective. As I said earlier on in this video, Moderna claimed that their vaccine is 94.5% effective. That's likely to be in some sort of late stage trials. We can see here that we've been pushing higher yet again on the FTSE 100. We're now back at levels last seen in early June. So we are talking multi-month highs being wrapped up on the FTSE 100. If we continue to press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the June highs in around 6,513. If we go beyond that, we could then be heading up towards this zone here, this area here that was achieved in the middle of early March, up towards 6,900. In around 6,890, they're about. If we do see any pullbacks, kind of a pullback, a slight reversal in the bullish trend, we could find support from Friday's lows in around 6,258, and the move below that could take us back down toward this red line here, the 200-day moving average, and that comes into play just south of 6,100 in a 6,098. We can see that that metric managed to act to support only last Tuesday. So if a metric has been important in the past, it makes it more likely it could be important in the future, although there are no guarantees. That's the FTSE 100 taking a look at what's going on over in Germany and the DEX. It is worth noting that going into the crisis, the German market was in a better shape than the FTSE 100, but nonetheless, the German market has been in a solid upward trend, a very strong upward trend the last few weeks. You could even argue that an aggressive upward move like that could see some sort of a pullback at some point, but given what's going on with the vaccine story on Aderna, we could look at retesting the last Monday's high, which comes into play just south of 13,300. If you take out last Monday's high, we could then be looking at targeting the August highs. That comes into play in a 13,462. I keep in mind, the highs that we saw back in September were actually multi-multi-multi highs. They were the highs that we've seen since February. So the indication of how bullish things were back then. Similar scenario, if you do see a bit of a move to the downside, we could find some support in and around with this blue line here is the fifth-day moving average. We can see in a few occasions that metric sort of acted as support back in September. The few areas were active resistance in late September into October. So once again, active resistance in the middle of October. So we do see a bit of a pullback on the darks. We can head back to this blue line here, the fifth-day moving average in a 12,743. Take a look at what's going on from the US. The US markets are in by far the best shape. It's looking likely last Monday. We saw that Dow Jones set a new all-time high. If you look at today's candle, obviously today trading session, cash session over New York, cash even done yet. And we're already looking to retest the all-time high. So we could be seeing new all-time highs from the US today, potentially. If we continue to trade on higher from here, because we're currently trading around 29,990 there, thereabouts, we could be heading up to the last Monday's highs in around 30,092. And if we go beyond that, we could be looking towards 30,100, 200, so on and so forth. And he moves to the downside, couldn't find support from these last years. On these occasions, there's a general area active as support. That's in around 28,868, 28,934. So that kind of zone of around 70 odd points, 50 or 70 odd points in around there could act as support. If we move below that, we can head back down towards blue line here, the fifth-day moving average. We can see the active support recently and also there again in October. And on a few occasions in early October, too. So keep an eye out for just north of 28,000, 28,010. I'd imagine there'd be a similar position on the Dow again by accident. I'd imagine it'd be a fairly similar position again on the S&P 500. So you can see here that an all-time high was achieved on Monday this day last week. We're already pressing higher and holding above the lows of last Tuesday and the last few sessions. And then what do you know? We're seeing the market push higher yet again. We're currently respecting the cash trading over in New York to begin at 3,630. If we continue to press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the highs achieved last Monday, which were all-time highs in at 3,674. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at targeting 3,680, 90, and then up towards 3,700. Any move to the downside could find support from this area here in around 3,511. And a move below that could take us back toward this blue line here, the fifth-day moving average at 3,410. Well, let's take a look now at what's going over on the Eurodollar. Now, in the last few weeks and months, the US dollar has actually a bit of a safe haven place. So whenever there's been uncertainty in stocks and, to an extra extent, commodities, we've seen money flow, often seen money flow into the US dollar. Conversely, whenever equity markets have been strong and people and there's a bullish outlook in relation to how the health crisis is playing out or, in fact, how the US election has gone or in relation to any kind of stimulus packages or, indeed, the vaccine hubs, we've often seen dollar weaken and, in turn, the Euro and other currencies push on higher. And as you can see here, the last few weeks, the last few sessions, Eurodollar has moved to the upside. In fact, only last Monday hit its highest level since September. So we're talking, we did hit a multi-month high, multi-week high last Monday. We're looking at a move lower. It traded below the 50-day moving average, but quite quickly got back above it and we're moving on higher yet again. If we continue to move on higher and we take that last Monday's high, it could take us back up toward this area in on the kind of one-spot 20 zone. If we do fall back below the 50-day moving average, which comes into play at one-spot 1771, it could take us back down towards this yellow line here, the water-day moving average. And that comes into play at one-spot 1713. We noticed there's a bit of an area of consolidation from the metric at the beginning of the month. And if we go above that, we're going to be heading out toward this zone here, in around one-spot 1612. We can see on a couple of occasions that general area acted as support. Actually, in fact, the lows of last week, Wednesday the 4th of November, we're even lower. It was one-spot 1602. So if we can take out those lows, that could be an indication that we're in for a further downside move. And it could take us back down towards this area here. Let's knock that off. It could take us back down to the kind of one-fourteen zone. Can you see it? One-fourteen acted as resistance in early June on the way up and the next law acted as resistance in around middle of July before the market then really took off. Take a look now at pound versus the US dollar. There's continuous uncertainty in relation to the UK-EU trade situation. That being said, it's still a possibility we could wind up with no deal in place. We're still certainly on the go. But at the same time, there isn't any huge moves in the currency markets. Take a look at the pound dollar. We can see here, since about late September, we've been in a nice upward trend, which ties in with the broad upward trend over the last few months. So if you draw a line between the lows of late September with the lows of early November, you get this trend line along here. While we hold above that trend line, it's like the broader uptrend could continue. That is the case. We could then be looking at heading back up towards the highs that were achieved in September. And if you go beyond that, you get heading up towards one spot 3515. And keep in mind, one spot 3515 was the highs that was achieved in December last year on the back of the conservative government, on the back of the very strong victory for the conservative party in the UK general election. Any moves at a downside could find support from this trend line here, which also coincides with this blue line here. The 50-day movie average which comes into play just saw below 130, in one spot 2970, there they're about. So if we do move to the downside, 130 can act as support, we're even down to this blue line here in one spot 2969 to be precise. Finally, coming out to commodities. Let's take a look what's going on with gold. So we're seeing further pressure on gold, which is not exactly surprising. So gold had a huge sell-off last Monday on the back of the vaccine hopes story. People could have the idea that they'd rather have their money out of assets such as gold because they're considered to be low-risk assets and they'd rather put that into riskier assets such as stocks and to be precise stocks that are in the hospitality sector, stocks that are in the transport sector and stocks that are in the travel sector. These all benefited greatly on the back of optimism surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine hopes. So even though we did see after Monday's brutal sell-off last week, we did see gold ever so slightly recouping some of those losses. I've already know we're back lower again. I believe we're down 8.1%. Currently, if we continue to press on lower from here, we could be looking at testing Monday's lows, last Monday's lows. But what's interesting is that the lows that were achieved last Monday, they got close to the lows of late September, but they didn't quite get there. So this entire zone in around 1850, 1848, that seems to me that is quite significant. And if we do manage to, in fact, hold above that level, kind of the wider uptrend of gold to continue, that is the case. We could then be heading back up towards 1900. We could be heading back up towards the fifth and moving average in 1905. And if we go beyond that, and if you take out the highs of last Monday, we could then be looking at which come into play in around 1965. If you go beyond that, we could then be looking at taking out the highs of mid-September in around 1973. Now, keep in mind, if we do take out 1848, there aren't a whole lot of support. So we could be looking at heading back down towards the kind of 1800 zone. To the top end, we could be looking at towards in 1818. To the bottom end, we could be looking towards 1790. So we're talking the zone over nearly 30 bucks. It could be an essential sport area, should we have the size of the break below 1848. Now, coming on lastly to the oil market. So we've already seen quite a large number of types of oil. Obviously, you know, technically, the movements in the oil market are often tied in with the kind of perceptions of the health of the global economy. Stronger economy is likely to increase demand for oil. So as you can see here, we had a major move to the upside in oil back last week. In fact, on Wednesday, it continued to rally at its highest level in early September. So we had basically hit it over two more times and achieved that Wednesday. America, America, what do you know? Where are you at again? If you want to continue to hold at the bottom of the blue line here at the 50 movie average in a 30 spot 60 psychology in 39 spot 63, while we continue to hold above that, it's likely that the kind of recent upward trend is going to continue. If you move higher from here, we could be retesting this November highs in at 43 spot 05. And the move beyond that could take us back and forth the highs that were achieved in late August up in around 44 spot 30 thereabouts. If you do in the other hand, manage to move lower from here. If you do have a break below the 50 movie average here, it could take us back down toward these lows here around 37 spot 06. And the move below that could take us back south of 34 back to the lows that were seen early last Monday. Thank you for listening. That's all from this video. Have a great training week and good luck.