 Welcome traders. We're going to get going here in 30 seconds. Just going to give it another 30 seconds before we start. Okay, that is 1pm British summertime. Welcome to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally, before we get going today. As always, want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. I want to share with you that the views expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indictive or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university. I joined the city plc consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exits a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search. I was primarily focused on technology businesses. Essentially I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that time day gambling. And after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. As is often the case my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit my personal capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is another statement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. My mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I was not just my technical gain in terms of researching developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality. All of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach, but most importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game. Most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean well it means I had stopped focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades, but once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotion investment and hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades so I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. I focus on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service again delivering positive annual returns. I've also been managing a multi million dollar portfolio since 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I also provide daily market outlook where I break down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for a few markets that I'm actively tracking and I share these through the tick mill trading view accounts. I also run a tick mills Emily strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre market plan for the cash New York trading session for the S&P 500 giving my bias for the day ahead specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. My market plans have delivered over three and a half thousand points and profit since we launched the service just over 18 months ago. Second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level tick mill futures telegram trading group is a real time environment where on a daily basis I share an in depth insights analysis and real time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform, helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. I'm using a flavor of where I'm coming from let's jump into today's charts, I would say before I start if if you have any questions. Make a note of those in the chat, and I will come back at the end and we'll review those and I'll cover them off before we finish the session. If you're interested in the instrument you'd like to take a look at that I don't cover in my charts here. You can also just type that into the chat and I'll give you a view on that instrument at the end of my presentation. Okay, let's get things going. So the SMP 500 using the email futures contract here. We are tracking a potential five wave sequence from the June lows. We have a one to currently have a wave three here. And what I'm looking for is a wave for low, and then I'm going to be targeting a fifth wave extension to the upside so where am I anticipating that that way for low will develop. So actually what we'll get is a move something like this into test this 4148 area from there I'm going to be looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side. My minimum upside objective for those of you who attended on a weekly basis you'll hopefully know I'm talking about now is a five equals one so we're looking for a fifth wave that other minimum equals the first wave from our wave for low. So if we get away for low that prints in and around this 4148 year and our fifth wave extension target is going to be 4400 on the upside now that also coincides with the yearly pivot point. What it would also do is it would take out this trend line resistance on the weekly timeframe now. This is, this is something to think about in terms of sentiment in markets. So if we get that move where we get this big wave extension up into this target zone 4400, what you can imagine similar to what we've experienced as we have been in this way through extension. The market narrative shifted from being well from the majority of people believing we're in a bear market rally to quite a lot of chatter about the fact that we could potentially now be in a new bull market. Now, to my mind, we are still at this stage, we are in a bear market rally. And what I'm looking for is, if we can get this move up into the 4400 area, I'll certainly be watching for momentum divergence what your nose here is, but as we made this high. We didn't get any momentum divergence. Now, where we get, where we get a peak like that in terms of momentum and we don't get the divergence that encourages the idea that we've got a wave three high. So, and this is why I'm looking for a wave for no or a new swing load to to engage on the long side because more often than not if we are going to, if we're going to make a move to the downside or we're going to, sorry, if we're going to see a correction or a reversal in the markets. We don't see some momentum divergence in play before we get that move, you can see here where we made, we retested highs and we had a momentum divergence there. So what I would, what I'd be anticipating would get here is a move into this support zone that we're looking to engage on the long side. When we get up into this area, what I would anticipate is that our momentum study does something like this and makes a lower high as price makes a higher high. So that's our momentum divergence confirmed. And then what we're watching for is bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side. Now, what I'll be looking for then, if we look on the weekly chart here. So this is our move here up into this zone. I'll be then targeting. That's frozen on the second guys. I'll be then targeting an equality objective to the downside equal to our first leg. If I use the trend based extension, you can clearly see then what I'm looking for. So I've actually been looking for a move down into 30 to 50 level. Also what you want to bear in mind is we're heading into a particularly tricky periods in terms of seasonality in markets. So in September, historically has been a very weak performing month. We then have October, also historically a volatile month. The slight find the argument that we also need to factor in now as we move through September and October is that we then head into November and the midterm elections in the US. So historically what you will find is by some miracle as as the as we get closer to these midterm elections, more often than not you will see the markets rally now, whether or not that's by some some form of pure chance or sort of nefarious actor in the background I don't know, but more often than not, all I'm saying is you will see as we get closer maybe three, four weeks out, markets will suddenly get a bid. You'll often find as well that data tends to improve miraculously. And so what I would anticipate is that if we can, if we get this move up into the 44 area, we get a reversal I'm anticipating. Minimum be thinking about a move back down to 3810 and the cycle those studies to 50s and if we get through there then 3250 is the downside equality objective. But regardless what I'm anticipating is as we head into September as as the big money players come back from the Hamptons after Labor Day weekend, which is the weekend after this weekend, that we are going to see some some volatility so in the near term I'm looking for one more push higher, and then I'm going to be looking to engage on the short side now the alternative scenario is, we don't get that push higher and we roll over from what is a pretty significant trend line here, the third test of that trend line also significant so what my market is going to be in terms of the idea that this this correction is actually complete will be any move through that 4080 on a closing then I'll be looking intraday shorts but for now 4080 to 40100 is my target zone, and I'll be looking for that 40400 test to the outside. Now obviously this is going to feed in to the other equity indexes. So I'm looking for the NASDAQ. Ideally the NASDAQ will hold its current lows here. We may retest, but I'm looking then for the NASDAQ to make another push higher up towards 13900, where once again I'll be watching for bearish reverse funds again no we didn't get any momentum divergence on that last push into the high so that again gives me an additional indication that we should see one more high here developed in terms of the NASDAQ. Why am the Dow Jones tested briefly through its trend line resistance got a nice rejection on the weekly timeframe from that yearly pivot. Again, we didn't get any divergence here so what I've been looking for. So what we've a great tool to use when you're looking at these wave patterns is if you can connect the wave one high potential wave three high and that should tell you roughly where wave four should complete ideally you're looking to see a three wave move here. So if we get something like this and move down into the 3200 450 area into that trend line support projected trend line support. Obviously, I'm way I wouldn't be looking to just play a strike of that level I want to see price confirm. If we get that then we've got a nice five equals one here that will take something to that high volume node I think let's just measure that. So if we can get that that test into the 32 450 area what's a British reversal patterns, and then we're going to engage on the long side into the high volume node 34,600. And then from there I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns momentum divergence to be confirmed, and I'll be engaging on the short side. Similar situation here in terms of the Russell, we have a wave three high that didn't have any momentum divergence we pulled back. If we let's change this around here. We're going to connect our wave one and our way three high and clone that overlaid with our wave to low. Let's redraw this into here. So, so any move here into that trend line support that's got our fifth wave target in line here. We would be looking for a way three higher way for pullback into the 1910 1915 area, bullish reversal patterns there, we gauge on the long side monthly projected range resistance and a five equals one objective gives us 2066. And from there watch for bearish reversal patterns momentum divergence and we will re engage on the short side with DAX. Now, as the DAX testing into its trend line resistance. Now, no worthy as the DAX testing into its trend line resistance. What do we have in play. We have momentum divergence. The DAX move is potentially done. Another thing that's important to note with the DAX is the DAX made a new load test it took out the prior loads didn't close below, but it did take out the load and that again is the first clue that maybe we've got some downside here in the DAX to what to consider so what I've been looking for in the DAX here is any correction against this current move so anything back here into weekly projected range resistance or a test the retest of the trend line. I've been watching these areas to engage on the short side, looking ultimately for the DAX to break down here. Now what you've got to bear in mind, obviously the DAX heavily correlated to what's going on in Europe as we head into the winter sadly, certainly in Germany and across mainland Europe. I think we're going to see some concerns with respect to energy supplies obviously related to the crisis in Ukraine. Not that I'm looking to or suggest that you know it's enjoyable to profit from that type of scenario but as traders we've got to practically understand the environment we're operating in and what the fundamental drivers are. So this energy crisis is likely to be a fundamental driver. So if we take out the 12,390 on a closing basis, even on the daily timeframe, the downside objective is an equality objective versus the swing higher here at 14,950s. That gives us 11,150 as a downside target for the DAX. So I'm looking for opportunities to short DAX essentially in the near term. The Nikkei also saw a bit of momentum divergence into that last high where we tested just shy of our equality objective. So again, I'm starting to lean here to the short side in terms of the Nikkei. And our first clue as to opportunities to set short positions. There's going to be any break of this trend line support and seeing we've been in this channel. So we've got this channel. So any move through on a closing basis on the daily timeframe, we close through the trend channel support 2800, 28,000, sorry, I'm going to be looking on the short side, certainly think about a test back into 27,000, 26,900. There's trend line support, but I anticipate we take that out. And what I'm looking for in terms of the Nikkei then is going to be this broader corrective pattern to play out and get us down into the 23,000 level before then looking for the next leg to the upside. So again, bearish the Nikkei, bearish the DAX ahead of these US indices at the moment, still think we've got one push higher in the US indices. That covers off my equity view. Let's move into forex and we are looking at the dollar index. I'm currently short the dollar index. I'm not convinced that my short position is going to work out to risk free trade. So there's no problem now but what I have the reason for the engagement of the short side is double top momentum divergence, and we've got a nice inside candle rejection. And that pulled me on the short side but really what I'm looking for in the dollar is I want to see one more high here into this 127 extension of this last corrective leg. Certainly any move into that one 1030 area, I'm going to be looking for momentum divergence to be maintained, what we'd actually potentially have there will be triple momentum divergence, very strong signal in my experience. And so if we get that set up and we're watching for bearish reversal patterns above this one 1020, one 1030, and I think we've got a decent chance then of trading down back into the 105 support area. Before we look for the next leg potential next leg higher in terms of dollar index. So, if I'm anticipating to get a new swing high in terms of the dollar then I'm also need to look to the downside in terms of the euro. My target on the euro as those who have been here for a while 1967 60 is what we're looking for. And I think we've got the setup developing here now to get into that 1967 60. So I'm going to correlate with the dollar making that one 1030 as mostly where we've got Fed chairman power talking tomorrow at the Jackson Hole symposium, likely to have a hawkish slump to his rhetoric, given the loosening and financial conditions that we've seen through this bear market rally. I'm just going to want to kind of stamp stamp that out a bit so I'm anticipating that we get a move down is this 1967 60 from there. I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns based on momentum divergence to engage on the long side. I think we can trade back up into this low volume mode 103 50s again and see how we trade from there. Similar story looking for another leg lower. I'm looking for a 115 test on sterling. And if we get that and we maintain some momentum divergence here similar idea to the dollar and the euro. I'll be looking to fade that move, at least for a for a pop back into this prize here 123 as the first upside objective there on in terms of the sterling room to the yen. I think if the dollar index going to make another high. I think the yen is probably going to make another high as well and target for that it's going to be 140 at this stage. I'm not going to get bearish unless we take out this trend line support on a closing basis. So I'm looking for any pullbacks to find support into test that 140 50 area weekly projected range resistance and from there as long as we maintain the momentum divergence here again triple divergence potential setup, then I'm going to be looking to engage on the short side. And I think in terms of dolly and we can at least move back into that 130 50 area. Euro yen. So looking for this test of trend line resistance here 138 20s from there and we'll be looking on the short side and I think we've got a decent chance of training down into the 130 30 area. This stage and take a close back through that trend line resistance to suggest that we we could trade higher here in terms of neuro yen. Similar type of situation I'm looking for a test of trend line resistance, ultimately that I'm watching for us to come back into this weekly projected trend line support 158 30s anything in there. I'm going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and I think we've got a shot at 170 in terms of sterling and I'll just show you the setup there we have this trend line resistance coming in potential waves developing and that's going to be the play there in terms of sterling yen. Ozzy and watching how we trade here in 95 70s that if we can get if we have daily clothes through that 95 70s, I think we've got another run at the highs here up to 98 95. And my sweet spot for entry on this one will be back into this trend line support on the weekly timeframe but nothing immediate to do there. In terms of Ozzy yen similar story here cad yen love to see a test up into the 108 20s maintain this momentum bearish divergence. And that would certainly be a trade I've been looking to play on the short side in terms of cad yen but nothing immediate for me to do. It's certainly very choppy trades ultimately I look for a test of the sending trend line resistance and the high volume node here 132 80s 133 we get up in there momentum divergence and I'll be looking to engage on the short side. The Aussie is looking at this pitchfork play here we didn't quite test it we've got a little bit of a pop I've been waiting. to chase this here at this stage right I wait to see if the Aussie does test this pitchfork alternatively close to it on a daily daily close, then we've still got that 66 40 below us that again will coincide with the dollar making another high before rolling over let's take a look at this is the other trade I've got on at the moment, this bullish reversal that we saw here from the support the gap support zone. And I'm holding a long position there against this swing low looking ultimately for 1885, which is the equality objective set up there in terms of gold. Again, we've got this Jackson hole tomorrow, likely to see some volatility, things like the dollar yen gold the dollar the euro sterling these majors and likely to see volatility so may get shaken out of this but we'll we'll see it's it's one that I'm going to hold for now. Silver. I don't see trading slightly weaker to gold I don't have a set up as such there and silver crude oil worked out nicely traded into our 86 30 downside objective, a nice bullish reverse back since the follow through what I'm going to be watching now in terms of crude oil and this is one to pay attention to tomorrow. If we close crude tomorrow at or above current levels as a bullish outside reversal candle heading into Monday Tuesday next week, and we're watching for intraday pullbacks to get in on the long side. And certainly the first time on the upside is going to be a retest of the $100 level, and, and then on to this high volume load one or two 80s, but we tested pretty much to the tip there that equality objective as the swing structure, seeing a nice reaction nice bullish reversal pattern here on the weekly timeframe. So I'm watching Monday Tuesday intraday for our how they watch for pullbacks to engage on the non side Bitcoin. We're building on for dear life at this trend channel support. I'm personally still looking for a 12,185 tests. So when you pop that we might see Bitcoin related to those US equity index is popping a little bit higher so the NASDAQ has been heavily correlated to Bitcoin any rejections then and we take out this trend channel support watch for that 12,185 heading into potentially, you know, September, October time that could be an interesting entry opportunity in terms of Bitcoin. Apple tested into our trend line resistance, but just above there and pulled back. Now we are sitting at a pivotal point here for Apple. Let's see what I'm looking at. So this is our one two star three and you can see in symmetry swing wave four here 16650 now, if we hold here what's our target well, like I said before five equals one. Let's move back into these price here 1840. Can we maintain momentum divergence if we do potential for Apple to roll over there from five wave sequence and certainly we think about move back into the midpoint of the channel towards 150. So the others I'm going to finish up with here Euro Aussie posted this one today. This is a stop run play we're taking out stops here we've got plenty of momentum divergence. So as we test this weekly protective race for 142 80s, any bullish reversal pattern they're only watching really closely for an opportunity on the long side. And certainly think about three wave corrective move back into this resistance area here 14690s round things out with Euro sterling this week. So any move up into 85 30s, I am going to be looking on the short side. I've got a downside objective on the weekly timeframe here for an 80 cents test is what I'm looking at there so any move up into this trend line resistance, there's a swing low here at 83 80s. We look for 85 30s to engage on the short side to move down into the 80 level. And that completes the whistle stopped all this week of the charts and setups I'm watching certainly paying very close attention to these US equity indexes, these majors effects majors dollar index and setups, also keep an eye on gold. We want to see can crude oil put in that outside reversal on the weekly timeframe, great opportunity heading into the beginning of next week, also pay close attention tomorrow afternoon volatility lightly. And then as we head into next week we have month and middle of next week, but then we head into September remember what I said about seasonality and the likelihood of some weakness to be seen in these equity markets. And then before I wrap up, I'm going to put two links into the chat. The first one is the tick mill features group I post that email that S&P 500 trade plan on a daily basis, just or you just request access, and I'll let you in there. And then the last link I'm going to post is the trading view link for the daily charts that I post with setups, I post setups there. So the higher time frames also for our time frames for you to to follow along. Okay, so with that said, are there any questions. If you don't have a question, you want me to take a look at minstrel just post it into the chat and I'll do my best to give you a view on that. Another 10 or 15 seconds here to see if any questions come through. If not, I'm going to wrap this one up here and hope that I've done a reasonable job of explaining my my current views on the market. And we will reconvene at the same time next week so traders as always plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your wrist thanks for your time and look forward to seeing you next week.