 We just give everybody 30 seconds to log in, and then we will get going. I'd just like to quickly check the audio before we start with the session. If you can hear me, and you can see the participants, if you type a Y in the chat box, that would be helpful. Good stuff. OK. Good morning, afternoon evening. My name is Patrick Munnali. I've been active in the financial markets for the past 15 years. as money manager, mentor and currently a resident market expert at Tickmer. My role today is hosting and moderating our discussion. We hope today's debate will provide insight into the impact of potential outcome scenarios of the US election. Our aim today is to cut through the noise of the campaign rhetoric and the polling data and provide you with actionable insights identifying themes that will impact a broad range of markets over the coming weeks, months and even years. Before we jump into the hot topics for debate, I would like to introduce you to our panellists. We've amassed a cross-section of market technicians, traders and even the old CEO to provide a cross-section of not just conventional but also contrarian views. So firstly, I'd like to welcome Sunanashu Agawal, Executive Director and CEO of Tickmer. Shu has been managing and advising trading firms over the past 15 years. He's currently burning the midnight oil and dialing in from Sydney, Australia. How are you doing Shu? Very good. Thank you. Joining Shu from Singapore is Desmond Lund. Desmond is Tickmer's Asian market expert and CEO of EFG and Forex Army, award-winning research businesses, advising trading desks of banks, hedge funds and treasury departments. How are you doing Desmond? I'm good, thank you. And from the Middle East, we have Joseph Dahir calling in from Lebanon. Joseph has nearly a decade-long track record in various roles within the capital markets. Joseph is currently a market strategist for Tickmer with specific expertise in Elliott Wave analysis. How are you doing Joseph? Very good. Thank you. Excellent. Now from Europe, we have Mike Siddell dialing in from Germany. Mike has been involved in the markets for over 20 years, trading full-time for the past eight years. He's currently CEO and founder of Investor Shuler, where he coaches traders of all experience levels. Mike actively trades forex indices and individual stocks. Gwyn tarf, Mike. Hello. I'm good to be here and looking forward to this great event today. Thank you. Excellent. And last but not least, I would like to welcome Carlos Veledra calling in from Madrid in Spain. Carlos has been a full-time market operator since 2009. His approach is based on supply and demand price action and the psychology that moves markets. He has experienced in training traders and investors from retail to professional traders. He has served as an international currency dealer for fintech companies across Europe. Okay. So without further ado, let's jump into our first topic for discussion. I would like to suggest that if you have any questions regarding topics discussed during the session, please save those for the end of the discussion where I'll open up the floor to a Q&A session. So I guess before we can think about the outcome of the reaction, we have to think really about the results. Republican President Donald Trump has questioned the validity of mail-in votes, raising concerns that the results of one or more states will be decided in the courts. Trump again declined to commit to accepting the results during the presidential debates. Repeating his unfounded complaint that mail-in ballots would lead to election fraud. That has bolstered the case for investors betting on markets staying volatile into and post the election. So an orderly election versus a delayed result. How would a contested result impact the markets in your view? And I think we'll let Mike stud us off there in giving his view on that. Mike? Yes, I'm here. Great. So, nice guys. Maybe thank you for the time here in this discussion. I would like to give you some of the points to the first thing that you was talking about the election. I would like to make it short. I would say I have the expectation that just for the case that Trump will not win the election, he will go to the court and making it a full process. And I think he's prepared for this because of his insult, the lady in the court that we expected and this is normal thing that's occurred after the election. But this time it's everything different. And I think he's prepared for this lawsuit. And I'm pretty sure just for the case, Trump will not win. We will see a delayed election state and we will have to wait for great volatility on the markets. Yeah, that's a good point. Just today actually, Amy Coney Barrett is going to be sworn in as the ninth member of the Supreme Court. She will actually mean that the court now is stacked six to three in the conservative favour. So there are genuine concerns that if we do go to a contested election, that Trump at the very last minute would have stacked the deck in his favour. So that's a good point you raised there, Mike. Desmond, do you have any thoughts to share with us on this topic? Right now, yeah, it seems that almost everyone expects Trump to contest the result. Unless he wins. And more on that probability later. What we do know for sure is that a contested result will likely cause periods of extreme volatility and indecision. But what I think is more interesting is how we can take advantage of this particularly from a trading perspective. Since there's going to be a huge amount of uncertainty, we can ask ourselves. What is one thing we can be certain about? To me, that is we can be certain about uncertainty. If you're thinking about it from a trading perspective, I will be looking for all the other traders in this room. I'll be looking for patterns of indecision. I'll be looking at periods where the markets might be ranging. There'll be horizontal channels, big levels, big pivot levels that require a lot of concentrated effort to break through. I'll be trying to take a little bit more of those contouring trades, reversal trades around these key levels. It all revolves around the whole idea that from the election, if it gets contested, there'll be just this big period of indecision. Instead of trying to guess which way the markets might hit, it might make more sense for us to play the uncertainty. That's my view on it. Interesting. From the FX market, with respect to volatility and options in terms of volatility, there has been a steep decline of volatility coming into the election. I was reading just before we came on today that market makers are starting to price in quite a bit of volatility now over the election night, similar to 2016, really, where we got some big moves that were quickly reversed. So that idea of, I guess, if we do get a clear winner on the evening, maybe we will see some directional moves that test these current range resistance of support areas, and like you say, they could be faded with some success. So that's some good input. Thanks to that judgment. Thank you. I don't know if just yet, do we have Carlos on the line? No, I don't think we do. Okay. Well, let's move on. So once we get past the election and we have a potential new tenant in the White House, we want to think about what the implications are going to be, either from the Democrat or the Republican side. One of the key areas is that of the tax and regulatory environment under the current administration just last week, the Justice Department announced an investigation into Google's monopoly abuse of the internet. And while there are fears of rising tax rates under a Biden administration that could also hit these large technology stocks that have really been responsible for leading the market rally this year, our investors now looking to book gains before potential tax increases take place. Although markets typically welcome new spending initiatives, those proposed by Democratic candidates are likely to be accompanied by those higher corporate taxes. Among other proposed taxes on the US based multinational companies is an increase in the US corporate tax rate, potentially from 21% to 28%, which could result in the average company seeing after tax profits four by 10%. In your view, what are the main tax and regulatory implications under the two potential candidates and what's the key trade in terms of the takeaway from there. Joseph, do you want to start us off with that? Yes Patrick, thank you. My opinion taxation is a very important topic to speak of in regard to the capital markets. So, basically, we all may know that the Democrats prefer the higher taxation strategy as always. And Trump like kept the rates at the moment the same like 37% for the income tax or the individual tax and 21% for the corporate tax. Biden is willing to raise these taxes from 37% for the individual taxes to 39.6% and from 21% for the income tax for the corporate tax excuse me to 28%. So, basically, in Biden's opinion and according to tax policy center, the tax proposal of Biden will increase revenues by $4 trillion between the years 2021 and 2030. So basically what Biden is trying to do is to is trying to prioritize fairness and try to be more protective to the middle class. But however, we will know that the multi multinational companies profit will decrease, speaking of higher taxation. So that's why if we if we correlate the taxation to the stock market, no doubt, no doubt that the correlation between between tax revenues and the stock market has increased not encouraging of course the revision of the current approach of the fiscal policy. So, so basically low taxation mean higher income to the multinational companies, that's more liquidity investment in the stock market. So this is actually bullish for stocks and higher taxation mean lower funding and low income that's affecting the liquidity. Of course, this is better for stocks. So, in my opinion, and as a small conclusion on taxation. If Trump gets reelected, we can see new record highs on the American indices and a drop of Biden wins. This is basically a correlation between the taxation on the stock market if the Democrats and the Republican wins. So basically a negative for Trump and negative for. Good point. Do you want to chime in on the the regulatory and tax environment. Yeah, I think Joseph presented a really good point. But I guess what we really need to figure out is that there's going to be probably four potential scenarios. Are we looking at a blue wave. You know, which means that Biden comes in. And so does the house change hands. I'm looking at, you know, Biden coming in with the house to remaining with the Republicans. And so to this, and then there's, there's the other possibilities that, you know, Trump stays and then so does his house, or most unlikely that Trump would stay and the house would go to Democrats. And then then there comes in, you know, business seems to have preferred the Republicans because they're not as the regulatory environment becomes a bit easier and more business focused from. And then again the tax tax implications with the whole COVID situation, which has to be addressed as well, is do you provide a stimulus first. Or do you provide tax cuts, you know, which it's a chicken and egg. I'm glad I'm not, you know, part of the decision making process out there, but then you know you've got to run a balancing act between tax stimulus. Probably even social welfare has to be taken into account. There's a lot of uncertainty and, and regardless of who wins. I guess the first till the end of January, Trump still stays in house. He still has executive powers. He can still make a lot of decisions, I think reflecting back to the previous discussion where you have. And so if the Senate, I mean the judicial powers stack nine to three. There's a lot that could happen. So I guess, regardless of who wins. I think one of the economists I was listening to rightly put it there's probably going to be more questions post election post November three, then there are going to be answers. That's, that is, that is certainly one of the scenarios that I think has spooked the markets that if we if for example Biden does win. Like you say we still do have another another nearly two months of a Trump administration. And you've got to wonder at that stage in terms of fiscal policy, what sort of states, or what sort of economy that Trump would want to hand over to Biden. Because there's a view that I'm certainly from Mitch McConnell, the lead, the leader of the Republicans is that he doesn't want to get into a stimulus bill now, because he's of the view of it or the polling is suggesting that Biden comes in and what he'd rather do is handle most still born economy to to Biden to take over that's in a complex shambles and you know there's the gamesmanship is never ending. That brings us on really to another important question and that's really to do with the ongoing and seemingly never ending trade relations saga. On August the 15th, China and the US agreed to postpone a review of their phase one trade deal US election campaign and the hard rhetoric from President Trump could exacerbate tensions with negative spillover effects. The really hawkish tone for the members of the Democratic Party brings new policy uncertainties to the bilateral relationship in a Biden win scenario. Meanwhile, transatlantic relations have deteriorated significantly since the election of Trump. The common values on which Europe and the US had built their relationships since World War Two in terms of democracy respect for human rights free trade are no longer really promoted by the Trump and then in the UK we have the Brexit saga and emblematic of the different approaches between Trump and Biden President Trump supported the UK's decision to leave the EU and express doubts about the future viability of the EU even. He supported a free trade agreement with the UK after its withdrawal, and then on the other hand Joe Biden's team has warned Boris Johnson that the Northern Ireland protocol with the EU should not be challenged otherwise the UK and US trade treaty would also be compromised. So night of this for both Europe and China, the results of the US presidential election will be as important as they are almost for the United States. So what do you see as the principal drivers for trade relations with the likes of China and the EU and a post Brexit UK. And how would this read into the FX pricing versus the dollar in those major financial sensors. And so for that I would like Joseph to jump back in. Yes Patrick. Speaking of the tension. Let me start highlighting the, of course the US China tension dash relation, which in my opinion will never go back to where it was before. So basically Trump presented himself to the world as he is the only person capable of putting China on the submission. Since then he is imposing the tariff and fighting the vector company. So basically Trump is expected to continue this strategy that is likely to raise tension. While Trump's approach is likely to place more immediate pressure on China. So basically if Trump wins these tensions will definitely definitely continue to escalate. Biden is seen by others as more predictable and comprehensive. So, in addition, Biden like slammed the trade war with China saying that they have hurt American businesses and consumers. He called the US to get tough on China. So, and you mentioned the US trade deficit maybe highlighted as well that the US trade deficit with China has only grown since Trump has made the trade deal with China in January. So, in general, I don't think the US election outcomes per se make things infinitely better for China. It probably makes it a little bit less volatile in my opinion. So for the US UK deal, many of the members members of the Congress and analysts questioning the sequence of the talk to the extent that the United States may face difficulty negotiating with the UK. Without knowing what the what the final UK EU relationship looks like. So, Trump's winning may make standard negotiations even more possibly reaching a deal with UK. There's a phrasing that that that is related to the North and Irish peace to be a victim of Brexit. Trump has developed close ties to Johnson but Biden's warning suggests may not do the same. So, this signals to me that the special relationship between a Biden administration and Boris Johnson government, especially in a no deal Brexit is not going to be very special in my opinion. But as you mentioned, the relation to the dollar index. Have you mentioned Patrick that the correlation of these tensions to the dollar index. No, we are going to we're going to move on to that shortly thinking about not just the dollar index but you know in terms of if we're looking at the relationship between the US and either a President Biden or President Trump and post Brexit how that might impact the sterling dollar dynamics or in terms of the EU, what we see in terms of like we've seen in in previous months really when Trump has amped up the rhetoric in terms of the trade negotiations. That's had a tendency to to weigh on the euro. And so it's really trying to think in terms of the specific currencies mean we've recently seen the dollar very strong against the Chinese yuan, got a bit of a turnaround yesterday in that. And it's thinking about how these independent financial centers their currencies may respond. I believe we've got Carlos joining us now Carlos. Can you hear us. Yes, hello everybody. How are you. I'm sorry we have some technical problem. Carlos, do you want to jump in and give any perspective you have on that. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think Trump is selling this US China agreement like some kind of victory. I agree with Joseph that it tends to make things more stable but actually China. We know that it's maybe not going to you know to to actually do the agreement is not going to deliver the what has been agreed already. It's not going to deliver it. So Trump is using it for his political campaign, making like I make peace with Korea. I make peace with China. We have everything under control. Putin is my friend. But actually he has a really big problem with this because China is buying a lot of products from USA. So at the moment China cut this thing. America is going to have some problems. We can we can see that in the past soy producers attack a little bit trouble because of this no and he needed to put a solution immediately when we have this problem immediately. So, and the concern for me also is that if you see the dollar, John is going down a steady from seven to 6.7 already. So China is getting more buying power all the time is getting more buying power. So I think it's not as Joseph says I agree that it's not something that is already clear the China and USA agreement because nothing is going to guarantee that China is going to comply 100% with the agreement in my opinion. That's good. That's good point this this move in the one is is helping China to achieve those buying obligations that are at a discount really Desmond what were your thoughts on this. Well, I guess regardless if if Biden or Trump gets in right both regiments you'll be you'll be China exchange rate hawks. Right and I think they will you will see that they will insist that the exchange rate with adjust to reflect the bilateral kind of trade imbalances. Right so so we all know that previously that the UN right it depreciated when the two countries were you know undergoing fierce tensions and stuff. Right, but I think this year right or dovish you know central bank right you know there's undecided fiscal aid right and I think it's putting a little bit of a lead on the US, but if you really look at China, right, the PBOC has actually shown a more open stance towards the UN appreciation. You know as the country has kind of reduce its reliance on exports. Right so so you know kind of taking a step back you know in a nutshell right there are the fundamentals that are favoring the UN. And you know the PBOC is you know much more tolerant on your appreciation a lot more flexibility there. You know and if there's absence of any like further escalation of US you know China tensions in the short term. You know we could actually see the UN you know strengthen strengthen over the rest of the year or even 2020 2021. My personal my personal take from it if I look at it from a trading perspective right I think the UN could strengthen at least 5% more potent in 2021. So what that means in trading perspective is that daughter CNH you know I could actually be seeing it go all the way down to 6.35 6.4 you know if nothing other than to maintain the peace on the trade war fronts right and and you know if you add of course you know from a trade perspective you know if you add the UN gravitational pull theory that could levitate the year doll up to 1.2 or 1.25. Right so really just broadly looking at this you know seeing what the potential kind of trading opportunities you know traders in the room here can be looking out for. That's a good point because as the as the UN does does come off then you can start to see these, you know Chinese investment funds move into the euro. And then you know the other elephant in the room is actually the Swiss National Bank, and they're never ending battle to defend the Swiss francs I mean you've got a lot of cross border capital flows that could drive some some seismic shifts in the markets. So that's the question that Mike what do you think. I yeah it's we have spoken about a few very important things but when I think about USA and China. I just have in mind a few things it's not not too complicated, but on the one hand we have Donald Trump he would like to sell a victory against China he is on his policy he would like to have a trade deal with China. He's on the way on his way. But at the end, I think China will win because of Trump has maximum for another years. And China has much more time and I think they know exact about this thing and they have all the time in the world to do an interaction with the USA and this year. Next year, or in four years, I think it doesn't matter. And just for the case that Biden will win this, this election. We have to know China and USA have a relationship of mutual necessity and China needs USA, but USA needs China, I think a bit more because of a lot of products that US citizens by other companies by are produced in China and even if this product that are created in USA. A lot of this things are produced in China and so it's it's a win win situation for USA and China when they find a good way a smooth way. This is the advantage for the case that Biden will move into the White House that Biden is more a fan of China. And we will see, I think a better chance for a functional trade agreement between the USA and China on this one hand, and the second one is even if we don't talk about China. We have also Europe, you mentioned it before. We have the Brexit and USA is involved in both of them. And I'm pretty sure when Trump has finished the deal with China, he will go to Europe, he will go to Britain. He was already talking with Boris Johnson said all right when you leave the UK, you will, you will get a great deal from me but you have to know a great deal with with with Trump is in the most cases a great deal for Donald Trump. And this is what you should have in mind and this is what I have in mind and so the Brexit is hard enough for Great Britain and I think we can talk about a deal between USA and Great Britain maybe next year when we have an end in the Brexit nobody knows what will happen. And I think we have enough time for this and then comes Europe so that's that's my point of view. It's interesting and show you your perspective out in Australia where China is starting to apply some some trade restrictions out there at the moment. And certainly I would think if if Trump starts to bear down on China then China will look to flex their muscles elsewhere and your little your little part of paradise could be under pressure. But I think I echo Mike's sentiment, you know, most of us live in a democracy where governments are turned every four to five years. China is has got a 50 year plan. The last time I was in Shanghai, the airport had 50 counters, six of them were operational. And I thought it was because it was probably arrived at the wrong time of the day. So I just asked them and they said, No, this was built for 2050. So, so they've got a 50 year plan. I don't think any. Democratic government can even think about a 50 year plan. So, you know, I completely echo what Mike has said, regardless of who stays in the White House or who doesn't. You know, this trade deal will come and then there will be another presidency and then there would be another trade deal. And the saga will go on. Britain has its own problems. They still don't know what kind of a Brexit it's going to be. So let them figure that out before they can before that can come onto the table. But I think from China's perspective, at least if I was sitting in the policy rooms, I would actually want the Trump administration to stay. Because as soon as you have a new administration, you then have a whole new set of people that you have to deal with new set of relations that you have to build. And, you know, that's again a time taking pains taking exercise. So, if, you know, like I said, if I was there, I would prefer the Trump administration. I would prefer the current administration, but at least if another four years so that, you know, and not to say that, you know, Trump is all about Trump, I do agree with that as well. But he has done stuff. You know, he's he's he's done some good stuff in like in the Middle East. I mean, there's been some peace around. We've had lesser sort of wars around the place, lesser troop movements and everything else. So, so there is good stuff that he has done. So let's see what the future holds. Okay, well thinking of China, and I guess thinking about Trump's perspective on on the other major issue that's affected us all the COVID-19 pandemic and his ongoing rhetoric of the of the China flu. And the significant impacts throughout the world, the shutdown of global economies and leading to deaths of hundreds of thousands of people be apparently beginning in China in the midst of a US election year. It's proven to be a very politically charged issue. The USA has been especially hard hit by by COVID-19 with more than 8 million cases, more than any other country with the recent death of Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg and the new newly appointed now. Amy Barack Cohen. What we can, what I guess is going to is going to be a major issue is, are we going to see a stimulus bill passed before the November election. Now every day we're getting news on the wires that Manusian is speaking to Pelosi at two o'clock in the afternoon they then report that the telephone call was 52 minutes and nothing happened, but we wait then for the next day and the next telephone call. And so really, it's thinking about it is, is a fiscal stimulus approach likely to render just another sugar high, or is it the start of another sugar rush in terms of the markets. Or is there a sense of diminishing returns. We have fed policy pushing its upper limits within its current remit. Monetary policy advisors are now passing the baton to lawmakers who are obviously stymied by political posturing into the election. So I guess one of the key questions is, can any fiscal stimulus package at the moment really genuinely counter the pandemic problem and the socio economic fallout that we're seeing across the globe and especially in America. Mike, I think you've got some input on that. Yeah, there are a few points on my side, because of COVID-19 is in both ways a mood booster and a financial or fiscal stimulus indicator. And in my opinion, COVID-19 is much more important for the US economy for the global economy and much more important for the stability of the of the of the US data than the US election result because of when we have a look to the election programs. Both presidents are the current president and maybe the next one Mr Biden have a focus to the US economy and when you think about US economy, then you have to think about the effects of COVID-19 because of COVID-19 has shown lockdowns. We got mandatory is we got limitation shrink the shrinking the economy. All the things came from the COVID and that had nothing to do with with Mr Trump or with Mr Biden. So, in this case, we have to look about how we can solve the problems with COVID-19. And the problems are higher unemployment, lower overall expenditure. We have falling corporate profits and this is this is much more important than any taxings because of when our our the US corporates, the US companies earn less money. They have lower profits and when you have lower profits, it doesn't matter. What about the taxings are the profits are important. And this is the thing what COVID-19 effects in a direct way. And the next one is liquidity constraints and low inflation pressure. These are things in my mind that brings us worst case scenarios. That means consumer and corporate sentiments are unfavorable for the future. And this is a huge problem. And the government and the Fed will do everything to act against the negative impact. And it doesn't matter if Trump or Biden, the Fed will do anything or everything to keep the system going. That means we will see huge stimulus programs. I know the impact and the stimulus program from the Republicans is a bit smaller than the one from Biden's team. But at the end of the day, the Fed will have a huge impact to the whole system and the Americans call it Tina's bag. So they call it their snow alternative and we see this. We have stimulus negotiations at the moment without any results, but we have it. And I'm pretty sure after the election, we will see new programs. We have the triple free program to support the liquidity of the companies in USA. We see bond purchase programs by the Fed and unemployment benefits for the people living in America. Just to bring them in the situation that they have always enough money to pay their bills and spend money to buy products and anything else. And these are the things in my mind that we have to have in mind when we talk about COVID-19 and the result of the elections. Excellent. Good points, Mike. OK, well look, that's given us some context, I guess, and background to how we anticipate some of the broader impacts of this election are going to be. So I guess what we want to do now in this final section is dial this down and start to think about specifically some of the key markets that I know many of the attendees today will be interested in getting your views on. And so first I'm going to start by a quick deep dive into the dollar. Obviously, the dollar is experiencing a cyclical weakening over the last two years, the dollar bull market that have been supported by large interest rate differentials and above trend growth relative to the rest of the world. Since the pandemic induced recession, we've seen the removal of the twin pillars used to support the dollar, i.e. interest rate differentials and the US growth exceptionalism. So this is placed by the reemergence of the twin deficits, especially the fiscal deficit. In addition to the feds long term commitment to near zero rates and an escalating debt to GDP ratio. This is undoubtedly going to put further pressure on the reserve currency. So how do you guys see outcomes scenarios impacting the US dollar. Also want to think in terms of g7 FX counterparts and even gold. Yes, do you want to do you want to chime in on that. Yeah, I have a short point on this, I guess right. I guess one of the big outcomes scenarios is definitely the stimulus right if there's one thing if there's one shorting right is that the stimulus is coming. So wether it's a it's a blue wave or a democratic house cutting whatever deal it can or even if it's a Trump, you know, four more years right the stimulus is going to be very necessary as future the lens of rising US initial jobless claims, which only actually really become more painful towards the year and as you know, state level unemployment stop gaps you know they start to fall under a little bit more pressure. So personally from me right no matter who is going to win the election, the general direction for the dollar, you know, I'm expecting it to, to weaken, you know, due to the significant kind of money printing, they'll be needed. And of course, you know, in turn this would aid goal right so so so that view would more or less for my overall bias for my, you know, longer term positions here. And I think, yeah, I think everyone probably have a view on this so I can let everyone else share. Yeah. Carlos, do you want to chime in? Thank you guys. Thank you Desmond. I mean, before starting into giving my idea on the dollar, going back to what Mike said, there is one important thing because the stimulus is coming as Desmond said is coming we know that. But we don't know what the next president is going to be, it's impossible to know, but we know a couple of stuff, a couple of things that we can check looking at Europe. And we can know that more regulation, higher taxes, massive, massive government spending, that doesn't generate enough jobs. It's not going to help the crisis. It doesn't mean that more spending and more stimulus. It doesn't necessarily mean more jobs. We need to keep this in mind because in Europe, we have been doing this since 2009. And we still are struggling, you know, so more spending or more printing is not going to help. But in my opinion, for me, the currencies, I'm very dollar. I think it's going to weaken as well. It's actually not bad for USA to have a weaker dollar. It's going to help become more competitive in some markets. So it's good. It's good. This is actually one thing that Trump is doing that nobody before was doing like him is speaking directly to the Fed. He is speaking directly to Powell and saying China is doing currency manipulation and we are not doing it. They have an edge over us. So basically this put a lot of pressure down in my opinion on dollar. So I think I am very dollar printing machine is on 24 seven. I think also important thing in the future is the debt sailing. Nobody is speaking about this, but I think in the future, in the next year, remember with Obama, the trillion debt sailing stuff we have also it was on the news. So I think this in the future, it may be a problem. So far, I'm very is the dollar. I think for the US dollar as Godless and doesn't that we are on the same team actually. So basically I will back it up by some other points. Earlier this year, China devaluated the Chinese one against the dollar. And you saw the bear rising above the number, which is seven, the bold narration. And after the accusation that Trump's made against China as a currency manipulator, we found that the stimulus program have started more and more to push in the USA and the interest rates cap near zero, zero 25 basis point. And this is definitely a road of devaluation for the XY for the dollar index. And we saw it actually dropped from 103 to 93, which is the current level. So I believe for the stimulus program, even if Trump was the one who halted the stimulus program recently, however, I still believe he will adopt it as soon as he gets realized. So, and in addition, I doesn't want to add one thing that both ways, whoever wins the election, he sees a better she has dollar and in theory, a Biden win could reduce the value of the green back of the dollar even more. Since he would likely spend more on stimulus, both on COVID-19 relief and potential infrastructure, especially if there's a blue wave that leads to to of course the Democrats taking to taking over there. This innate. So basically, in my in my opinion, Biden presidency would boost more blue chip, blue chip stock more, more than the than the dollar. So actually eventually this is not bad since the weaker dollar tends to make the experts more attractive to overseas consumers and boosting the sales and profit for multinational companies. So it may not it may not be in America's best interest to see the dollar value skyrocket. That's why I believe more recovery is awaiting the major currencies like the euro, the pound and all the effect prices. And for the safe haven for the gold, I see another surge, maybe 10 to 20% coming in the medium to long term view for the gold potential targeting two thousand three hundred. Two thousand five hundred dollars an hour, backed up by not only the stimulus program and below interest rate, but what with high level of inflation as well. So that's three out of our five panellists think that the dollar is heading for for the ditches here. Michael, where are you sitting. I think it's also pretty, pretty simple. I'm the opinion and the dollar will be weak for for a while longer. I'm not really sure if you can see this, but it's, it's, it's a few. I think a few months ago in between. I know you can't see this. Sorry. I had the chart for our German tigmal team where I was talking about the long term development of the euro US dollar, for example. And you can see 16 years cycle 16 years of increasing and 16 years of decreasing time range and it looks like we are in the in the next cycle that we see an increasing euro against the US dollar. What I think is that we will see for the for the for the next period. I don't know how long, but I expect a weaker US dollar because of the US administration is doing a lot of work for to to to weekend US dollar. And we have enough enough time for to do this at the fat has set right. We can do a lot of things and when you have a look into the balance sheet and compare this balance sheet from the from the fat with with other balance sheets. For example, Euro or China or the UK. There's a lot of room for the fed to expand the monetary policy. And another thing that I have in mind is the threat, the threat index is to Kansas City financial stress index. And I can't show this this chart for now but some of you guys that are looking here might have a look to this the threat index is for the stress test is at the moment, near zero. That means the US financial system has absolutely zero stress at the moment with the situation that we have with with the with the cheaper or weaker dollar. I'm really sure that's a good sign for for the US and we have now on the on the on the other side, when we have a look to the total assets of the further reserve in July we had a balance sheet in worth of 6.96 trillion US dollar in July 2020. We have projections to the year 20, it's, I think it's 28. That means eight year in future, and we will see probably the asset of the of the further reserve to 19 trillion that what we see in the future. And when we see this way we see a lot of money going out into the world, they printed in this in this case, and I'm pretty sure this is the way the fat will go for the future, and this will weaken the US dollar and this has impacts to the other large major currency systems and this is what we see at the moment for example when you have a look to your US dollar, it's increasing in the chart it's it's an uptrend you see the same when we have a look to the cable British pound US dollar. It's the same thing with trending up not not in a straight way it's volatile, but I think this these things that the fed are doing is in the moment brings all together to weaken the dollar for the short term future. And this is what we trade from the traders few have to have in mind the trends are against the US dollar and this is what we see and we can get advantages of this. You're going to take the other side of the trade here we've got $4 bears that prepared to supply as many dollars as you need my man. Do we have a bit. I wish I wish I could. I mean, I kind of, you know, Carlos kind of stole my thunder there. It was pretty much what color said, you can, you can have as much stimulus as you like. But it's not creating jobs. And unless you create jobs you're not going to stimulate the economy. Let's face it, I mean stimulus is more socialistic. And most of the economies these years are capitalistic, and it's completely against the ethos of capitalistic economies to go socialist. And that's not going to create jobs. So whilst we are not creating jobs. The economies are not going to go up and so therefore the dollar is going to be bearish. Unfortunately, I can't take the other side of the trade at this stage. Unless I have a very hard, very, yeah. Maybe, maybe the volatility might allow me to do it around the election day, but other than that in the long and near term view, I think we all kind of tend to agree on the same page. Okay, okay. Well, last but not least, let's think about risk markets in terms of the indexes and overall risk sentiments. Whilst history has shown that party leadership in the Oval Office has had little long term impact on market returns, markets do expect like we've just been discussing some near term volatility around the election. Excluding interestingly the economic boom of the 1990s under the Clinton administration and the subsequent dot com bubble burst under George W Bush, market returns have actually proven to be similar across party leadership. However, with this election, a democratic clean sweep is the rising chance of this election outcome. Mainly because of all possible outcomes, a blue wave implies the largest potential changes to the legislative environment for global companies, which could result in significant impacts for both domestic and international markets. Perceptions are obviously scarred by the polls of 2016 that were wrong on both Brexit and the Trump presidency, but historically speaking, polls have only been wrong twice since 1952. So have the polls got it wrong again, or regardless of the presidency, it's obvious that beyond the pandemic, the US presidential election is expected to be the one of the key market drivers for Q4. So what are your current market expectations? And what is your view? Do you buy a post election dip or do you sell a post election rip? Desmond. Well, my view was a it's a lot more regarding the polls, right, because I have a very, I guess, interesting perspective on it, right? It seems that it's a little bit too clear, right? It seems that, you know, that there might be some, to me, there might be some kind of a, that little part of me is always questioning, you know, is it really so easy that everyone's question, you know, is predicting a Biden win, right? So anyway, there's one interesting statistic, which actually borrows its roots from the whole efficient market hypothesis, right? And it accurately predicted who won the elections correctly, 20 out of 23 times since 1936, right? Of course, you know, we are unprecedented times, right? And this might be different, right? But this statistic is a little bit hard to ignore, right? And we all know that the efficient market hypothesis, right? Basically, it says that, you know, the equity markets are basically priced in uncertainty, right? So this particular statistic is that if the S&P 500 index is up in the three months prior to the election day, the incumbent party usually wins, right? And if the markets are down during that period, the opposing party typically claims a victory, right? And of course, you know, it's, what do you call it? You know, it borrows from the whole efficient market hypothesis, you know, but it basically means that the equity markets have already priced in this uncertainty. So amidst all these madness that we're seeing, right, you know, could it be that, yes, you know, it's all, what's word for it, right? It's hard to finger on it, yeah. But yeah, you know, basically as of today, you know, S&P is up about 4% since August 3, which is three months prior to election day. So it's just really, really food for thought for me, right? On this whole, it just seems a little bit too obvious, right? And yeah, you know, it was obvious before, you know? And you know, that could be, it could be a potential upset here, right? It's a very long shot for me, yeah. Interesting. Carlos, buy the dip or sell the rip? Sell the, sell the rally of course all day long, my friend Patrick. Not yet, but the crisis is coming sooner or later. Gravity is going to make effect. The companies has been, they have been not having profits since two years ago, 2018. This crisis is not the COVID crisis. The COVID make it bigger and stronger, but the crisis was already cooking in the oven for already two years already, in my opinion. I have two points to address here for the stocks. First of all, it's over both. It's okay, it's an uptrend. I will not go and sell right now. Guys, take a lot of care. Okay, always. It's not like, I'm not saying it's going to fall tomorrow, but two points I want to address. The first point is that there are many zombies companies in USA, the fed are creating this kind of companies where they get more debt to pay more debt all the time, asking for loans to pay more debt. At the moment, the rate in agencies lower the qualification from AAA from to be triple B or B minus B, they will have a lot of problem to get more debt with a good price. So this plus the we the earnings of the companies are going like this. For me, I'm various. This is one of the main points and the second point for me. I have been using an indicator for a fundamental indicator for a lot of time for a long time. It's the total market cap by the GDP gross domestic product in USA in the market. USA, you have nearly 6000 companies you can invest on them in the stock market. Okay. The total market cap of the money that is already invested in this company. It's like 180% of the GDP of USA. Okay. It's highly leveraged, very highly, highly leveraged. So what happens is at the moment, these companies, the earnings start to be low and low and low and low and some people start to take profit. And I see that you are taking profits and everybody are taking profits. It can generate a domino effect. Basically, the leverage is going to go down. We are going to have some the leveraging years coming forward or we keep like crazy buying air and then the crash will be even bigger. So I'm various. I expect the market to go down the stocks S&P 500 because these two things first of all is overboard. Look at it. The companies are going out, but it's only five companies going out. There are 495 companies that are not going. Only five companies are going. Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, I mean, tell me other company that is going out. And then the total market cap by the GDP is insane levels, the maximum we ever saw. These are my points. Thank you guys. Good stuff. Mike. Yes, here I am. I'm a bull. I'm a long term bulls. So for the long term, I would, I would prefer to buy the dip. The question is when will we see the dip. Did we see the dip now and we will see increasing markets or will we get a lot of volatility after the election and the COVID-19 will play a big role in the economy development of the USA. I think Carlos said a few very good points and that a lot of companies are not able to receive further future gains. That's a problem. But I think to bring this together with the monetary policy of the Fed, we have different points of view. And in my opinion, the modern market theory is a really good working thing. We have seen this in 2008 with the financial crisis. The Fed printed a lot of money to help the companies and the US economy and they prevented the worst case. And this is what we see at the moment and they expanded this program because of its at the moment, not only for companies, also the US citizens are able to get money from the, from the, from the, not really from the Fed, but they got money with the free program and the, the, I'm not really sure how you call this and they got. When you have no job you got money. Yes, that's it absolutely. Thank you Patrick. And these are the things when we see money will help the economy in short term and they hope that the money will bring the growth for the future. And for this reason, I'm the opinion in long term, we will see an upcoming bull market and we will see a change in the market from the old economy to the new economy where people have a look to more to do more things in the internet to have a sustainable energy system and so on. We see this on the car market for example with Tesla and the energy producers we will have more and more green energy and these are the things that will bring the growth for the future and always when we have so situations like we have now. Then is the whole industry is changing at the moment and not only covered 19 also the election maybe a catalyst or for for future changes and this is what I think will be see here so in my opinion when I have to change when I have the chance to buy the dip. Whenever it comes for the long term, I would really like to buy the dip when we have a lot of volatility during the election and this is what the short term trade are interested in. It's really important to see what the markets are playing and what we see at the moment is a lot of certainty that means at the moment. We will have to see we have to situations that short term traders sell the rip. That means say sell to higher prices every day when the markets go up, we will see a selling and this is the sign for me that we have at the moment the situation when we sell the rip and this is the thing what I have at the moment when we have the high volatility and the uncertainty. Who will win the election and we will see that the markets will sell the rip in short term and this is what I think it's a better idea always to sell the rips, but when we see the market is changing the short term traders are switching over from selling the rip to buy the dip. It's time for the short term traders to do the same and this is where we have to have an eye what the big boys are doing and we private traders have to follow them. That's the secret. Good stuff. So we've got Desmond sitting on the fence. We've got Carlos selling the rip. We've got Mike is selling the rip to buy the dip. Joseph, where are you? Patrick, I couldn't agree more with Mike and Carlos and the guys. I have like two scenarios, the classical one and the technical part like fundamentally speaking. We cannot but mention again the taxation, right? The capital gains tax that would accompany a win by the Democrats would be a potential maybe a counterweight on this year's powerful rally in the stock market. So actually I don't think the Democrats are being forthright with the policies they are prescribing with the Green New Deal, with the Supreme Court, with the new tax policy, both on corporate and individual. So basically, I still believe that if the Democrats win the White House and vote the chambers of Congress at the election next month, we could see a drop in the IP 500 and the Dow Jones at least 5%. This is the classical view, let's say. The fundamental view, the normal classical thought of taxation and the correlation with the stock market. However, like if we need to elaborate more in terms of technical view, the market V shaped recovery was fast and full of momentum. So we saw the IP 500 trade and traded a new record high after the flash crash took place. So the and the current levels of the American indices are holding near all time highs, which gives the upside momentum higher probability to happen. So, if I, if I would like to agree with with Carlos, I would stress on a point that even if we need to sell the rip, I would like to see a bounce and the higher, let's say, maybe a false breakout, you can, you can name it. But I would like to see a higher indices, a false election before any sell-off might happen, both any, like, even if the Democrats like win, we could see another bounce before a crash. So the technical pattern Carlos, if you, if you know that after a V shape, after a V, V letter, it's tax an eye. So basically it's a V and then an eye. It's the same actually. So we might see another crash on the market happening. So I couldn't agree more with you, but like, we need to see maybe one more high before selling that. Last but not least, and we all know you shouldn't trade when you're tired. So sure things about 1am with you. So I wouldn't be pressing any buy or sell buttons directly, but what's your view? By the dip or sell the rip? I think the markets already factored in. Like Desmond came in and said, you know, it's, it's too good to be true. The markets already factored everything in. So I'd wait till the 3rd of November and maybe a bit beyond if Trump remains unbullish, bullish all the way. You know, just buy, buy, buy. I mean, let's face it. He is a businessman first and, you know, a leader second. So, but should he lose and, you know, once he gives up the office, I think it's around the 10th of January that he would be forced to do up the office unless he contests things. That's when during that period of volatility, you know, there will be opportunities to sell. And then, you know, we might see further further down the track what the new administration brings in. But there is no harm in the US dollar being weaker. OK, well look guys, thank you very much for your time and your contributions and input to the core questions there. I think we probably got about 10 or 15 minutes here where we could open the floor up for some Q&A. So if anyone has a specific question regarding the topics we've discussed, if you want to type that into the chat box or I think we've got a Q&A box as well, and I can feed those back into the group. We've got Alejandro from Columbia. How does the new president of the United States give the economy? How does the management of the economy in the United States impact emerging economies in relation to the debt they have on GDP and the printing of dollars by the Fed? It's clear that a weak dollar would help pay the external debts of smaller countries. But what would be the outlook in a more global context? Who'd like to jump in on that? Mike is speaking just a few words to this. We have to have in mind the USA is the largest economy in our world and as long as the engine is on a high term. So we have a good US economy. This would be good for the overall economy. And this is the thing where I would like to say when the US economy is shrinking, we will have an overall problem. We see this, for example, from my point in Germany, the export rates. We are export champions in our world and we see the problems that we have when the global economy is shrinking and we have huge problems with our exports. And this affects our whole economy. And in this point, I would say as long as we have a relatively strong US economy, we will have also a relatively strong Chinese economy. And this would be good for the overall economy in our world. I'm specifically thinking about in terms of emerging markets and I guess in terms of debt management for those economies. Obviously when we have the dollar surging, it puts them under significant pressure as we had seen over the past couple of years and that then has additional impacts in terms of stressing economies such as Brazil and and alike. So I think in terms of the specific emerging economies, like the panel seem to agree here, a weaker dollar should actually be supportive of those economies. Obviously it reduces their debt burden significantly and means that it's more capital available. So I think the view here from the panel who are mostly dollar bears would be that the emerging markets could see a bumper period ahead of them. Any other questions, let me just quickly scroll through. A question for you all. I tried to see the situation more simply this from Daniel. I see the US economy near to collapse and this COVID plus elections is just a theater and even causing more damage in the long run. Will either Trump or Biden be able to avoid the crash. I think Carlos is our rubber bear. What's your view on that Carlos, can either Biden or Trump right to the rescue with the US economy. I'm not sure I have you know we as a traders, we always like to do question to question things and I agree with you guys with Desmond with Sue. You have very, Joseph, Mike, all my colleagues and you have very valid points. And I have even myself some contradictions like okay you see a weak dollar. This will be good for stocks. No, it's like I'm very stocks, but I'm also very dollar doesn't make too much sense. I know but sometimes that's the things know we encounter in my opinion. It's the beginning of the end of the competitiveness of USA, as in the old way, like as Mike said, new economies, new digital. I think the Fed is working for the digital dollar, no interbank dollar, right? Europe is also preparing the central banks are preparing this jump into the next stage economy 4.2 or whatever the beta version it is. But what I mean is that I don't see Daniel, this is the end of the war like oh it's a crash in USA, it's going to end USA. It's going to change. It's going to be a big and huge change in my opinion of the economy and it will maybe come with a crash. So in my opinion this crash is unstoppable. It doesn't matter if it's Trump or if it's Biden because it's going all around Europe. For me the crash means that companies that are not competitive, they will need to be out of business and then new companies will appear. So it will make it will generate a transfer of value from non value well companies that are not providing anything to the society to new companies that will be already. Many people are creating new companies for this new economy, everything digital online, share economy, we share the car, we share the bike, you know this kind of new companies that are going all over the world in the big cities. So this is how I see more or less. Interesting point actually about the digital currencies and this is kind of been something that's been under the radar of many people but some. I think in terms of, I guess what what a digital the immediate impact of a digital currency and how that will impact nearly every single one of us is certainly with the, you know the huge amount of funds that these global economies have had to put into defending the economies through expenditure. The only way that they're really going to recoup this, this expense is, is taxation, and certainly if currencies become fully digitized, it's going to be very easy for governments or central banks to apply these tax regimes. And you know the days of offshore banking and all the rest of it will be will be a thing of the past and taxation will occur directly from your your bank account. Asensibly so you know that's one of the things that could be could be coming down the pike here in terms of a significant impact in terms of allowing governments to recoup all this all this pandemic expenditure. Another question here with regards to emerging market currencies and specifically Biden wins and specifically for the Turkish economy. We know that the leader has been under significant pressure and the US dollar is trading at about a 20 against the leader at the moment. And so, so anyone have a view on on the leader and if Biden gets in how you know that could impact the dollar versus the Turkish leader. Anyone want to chime in on that. I can tell a few from my point to the charts we've traded the leader versus the euro and the US dollar here in Tickma Germany. And I can tell you what have a look to the chart. When you see this, I've since months, the Turkish leader is going down and down and down. And I'm pretty sure this has nothing to do with with the US economy. The Turkey has huge economic problems. And as long as these problems are not yet solved, you will see a week week Turkish leader. This is this is my opinion and I'm pretty sure if Biden will win or Trump will stay in the White House, it will not change. Good stuff. In my opinion, Patrick, no doubt that Trump winning the election again would like continue to escalate the tensions in the Middle East. So basically a Biden like would rather maybe work in Obama's like mentality. Maybe it would be rather more deal more peace deals in the Middle East less tensions. The US DTR why the lira is tension driven, but not like from the technically, but however I have like certain critical numbers inside, which is the 8.36 level, which is the 161.8 to one actually treatment level with the calculations and the technical analysis. So basically the 8.36 level reminds me of the seven level of the Chinese you want against the US dollar. So it's a physical number and very critical level. I believe we are in the final and the fifth wave of this of this upside momentum. So probably we might see at least a few ways pulled back as a collective wave before any continuation of the term might happen. So the five or the sixth level is already like in the market. You can see it again very anytime soon. Good stuff. Well, one thing for certain in the fifth wave of this election, and we are heading towards the results a week from tomorrow potentially. Once again, I'd like to thank all the panelists shoe Joseph Mike Carlos and Desmond and from myself. Thank you very much for attending. I hope you found this discussion useful and and we will see what what comes from these elections. So thank you very, very much everyone and good night. Thank you Patrick. Thank you everybody. Thank you. Thank you everybody. Thank you. Thank you.