 Okay, very good morning. I hope you all had a excellent weekend. It is Monday 28th of June. So usual routine I'm gonna summarize some of the major headlines to be aware of from the weekend and take a look at what's in store for the week ahead and Obviously culminating in the latest release of US non-farm payrolls on Friday Which is set to be quite an important one In fact, given it's been the relative soft spot in the economic data coming out of the US a Respective of the economic kind of reopening fueling growth and also inflation bottleneck pressures keeping that elevated and The soft jobs data has been the one metric to keep Powell in a slightly more cautious approach Irrespective of the hawkish comments we've had of late So that's coming at the end of the week and obviously that means we get lots of US data this week and Keeping an eye on those job components, which we'll have a look at the whole calendar in a moment But otherwise just kicking things off and looking at the charts overall And what I'll do is I'm gonna keep this briefing focused on the fundamentals And then Tim one of our senior traders will run through on the live feed for the Amphi live community The charts technically in more detail, but giving you a flavor of sentiment this morning pretty flat overall The Dixie is trading unchanged Major pairs pretty much reflecting that not too much made major moves cable if anything and slightly higher reclaiming the 139 hand on the futures up around 24 pips and so despite Matt Hancock's wondering hands things Still moving as a normal no real reaction to that as you would expect and then looking elsewhere Stock index futures pretty much unchanged albeit minor positive territory the DAX future here and center left just finally a bit of resistance up at the Futures closing high that we saw towards the back end of last week Toes of the S&P did print a fresh all-time high during the Asia pack session just following those trends that we saw at the end Of last week we trade up at around those levels at the moment all-time high in the futures now at 42 78 The half otherwise the 10-year very tight range overnight the Asia pack region Up around three ticks going to the European open and gold has seen a fairly nice Recovery after an initial dip that was seen in Asian trade and we're trading up about six bucks at the moment at 17 84 Incrued oil bottom here is trading flat at the moment at the 74 handle So let's get straight to it as I said gonna focus on the news and starting off with Asia Where over the weekend we did have China industrial profits rise 36.4% year-on-year May which sounds like an awfully large figure But in context it's quite a bit weaker than we saw in the prior month in April of 57% Surging raw material prices squeezing margins and weighed on factory activity was the reason there for the slight drop-off in terms of the the pace of that rise We have had in recent weeks lots of Headlines pertaining to the fact that China are going to actively intervene and try and flood the market and supply of certain types of metals in order Offset those squeezes that we are seeing we have seen a number of these particularly base metals coming off that initial Peak that we had just a few months ago. And so at this point in time I don't really see too much to fret about with that type of data point for the market open this morning or the week ahead and China's official manufacturing data is due this week. That's going to come out on Wednesday It is expected and it's already looking for it to show weakening growth activity in June likely due to disruptions caused by COVID-19 Flare-ups that we're seeing now in some other major countries around the globe at the moment You know from the UK over to mainland Europe as well, particularly the Delta variant, which is now very present, of course Otherwise the main thing you probably would have read about in just the news in general was this chap here now the former health secretary in the UK Matt Hancock who resigned after admitting he had breached a government and his own social distancing rules By kissing his advisor in May His replacement Not going to dwell too much on him but talk about his replacement. Who is this familiar face? You'll probably recognize Who is Siji Javid? So he's been kind of brought back into the mix after he quit government after Boris was remember back in February Putting a lot of pressure on him to basically fire some of his special advisors of which he refused to do so and he kind of Walked away. He's been brought back into the fold He is believed to be more closely aligned with Rishi Sunak the current Chancellor Previously it used to be kind of the flip-roll reverse and Sunak was Sijid's number two at the Treasury in previous roles And now obviously the new health secretary. He's going to be taking that role with Rishi Sunak in still remaining the Treasury as the Chancellor Couple of things here reading between the lines in terms of away from policies of what their individual role titles would suggest it's minded about reopening and the kind of senior government cabinet officials and Rishi Sunak's been pretty clear now Did he wants to get the economy back reopening and dropping some of these social distancing rules and so forth and Basically exercising that final step down out of lockdown which got rolled over and delayed on June 21st and apparently Siji Javid has a similar type of mindset So today the government is expected to confirm that the spike in infections means it won't be possible to lift social Restrictions earlier. And so they're basically sticking to that July 19th commitment. And again Siji Javid is said to be aiming for the same full reopening date in mid-July Otherwise elsewhere on the vaccine front. I thought this was fairly interesting Particularly probably more prevalent for the US than anywhere else But infectious disease experts at the weekend are weighing up the need for booster shots easy either using the Pfizer Entech or the Moderna mRNA based vaccines As regards to Americans who have received Johnson and Johnson's one-dose vaccine due to an increasing prevalence of the more contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus Jane Jay have said it is testing whether immune response from its vaccine is capable of neutralizing the Delta variant in laboratory Settings, but there's no data available as yet. And the reason why this is become a talking point It's because both mRNA vaccines show efficacy rates of around 95% in large US based studies Whereas the single shot Jane Jay vaccine was only around 66% effective So the idea here being given the greater transmissibility of the Delta variant You know, we've even talked about Delta plus as well having greater immunovativeness Well, then is the Jane Jay single shot enough to give adequate Protection against what is now an increasing Delta variant that we're seeing in North America And so something to just be aware of as we we go through the week separately on the COVID from mainland Europe, Germany is to ramp up Their their vaccines And they will soon be so many doses available of COVID-19 vaccines on hand in Germany That will be able to offer shots to pass as buys in city centers in places of worship And so on as it seeks to vaccinate at least 80% of the population as soon as possible According to health officials at the weekend And of course this also comes at a time where we are seeing a pickup in Germany as well as other European nations of that COVID Delta variant Geopolitical news This is something which came out this morning and it comes after the president Joe Biden has ordered strikes On quote operational and weapon storage facilities at two locations in Syria And one location in Iraq Iraq on Sunday evening Washington time Washington time to deter future attacks on u.s. Interest in Iraq The strikes then Could mark as a bit of an early first test for the new president elect in Iran Ibrahim Rahisi And he's due not to take office until august But he has seen a bit of a more hardliner than his departing president in Iran Hasan Rahani and so The fact is here that the u.s. Has hit Iranian proxies outside the country So it could give both sides plausible deniability to avoid escalating And increasing tensions between the two nations However, of course It is kind of a subtle move going in In a situation where they are at the moment adjourned on nuclear talks But the u.s. Obviously want to keep the pressure on show their seriousness at this point in time particularly to a new incoming administration Iran has missed already a deadline to renew its temporary atomic monitoring pact with the international inspectors And something which they've done before again This is all very tactical part of this broader negotiation that's going on They probably will end up signing up to that and in the end We are still of the opinion that they will end up signing up to the nuclear accord It's just a matter of really timing. So it's something to just be aware of later on this week To just keep an eye on any comments. Again, I know this sounds Quite sensational these types of headlines, but in reality It's all part of this bigger political context and not something that's really going to move oil markets As far as right here right now The other thing As well talking about oil is OPEC OPEC have got a meeting Their monthly meetings as they do and that's happening on thursday of this week Sources as suggested the group is mulling a further easing of curbs Although specifics have not yet been ironed out reports suggested a curb easing of 500,000 barrels per day So two things really one going into that meeting on thursday I'd definitely be vigilant for more source comments It's almost inevitable that that will happen and give further clarity even before that meeting takes place of what the eventual outcome will likely be So looking out for greater Sensitivity in oil as we go through really probably wednesday. We'll get more color on that And then secondly, you know the reason for this kind of potential And hinting towards further easing of the supply curbs given the fact that oil is now trading up At multi-year highs. We're trading at 74 handle at the moment the covid situation is Well, this is probably the deal breaker of why The likes of Saudi Arabia at least will be very much more siding on the on the cautious and keeping the supply packed as it is And this is where the relationship needs to be balanced is that the russians, for example, will look at the price They'll look at the overall global global covid situation like in north america where yes, there's more delta variant but overall Case rates and hospitalizations and so on are very low The economy is reopening demand generally is picking up So they don't want to have too much supply constraints when there's ability to be able to sell more oil Is the russians view? Saudi Arabia will take the other side of that looking at the same variable and say look there's too much risk still associated to the fact that there's a real big dislocation between Developed and non-developed world covid Handling and so therefore there's still a risk on the demand side And so we should keep our supply packed in place So yeah, still a bit to play for whether or not that will materialize and certainly could be a factor for crude oil as well later on this week Otherwise jumping back to Something else two other areas I wanted to quickly talk about one was crypto So for any crypto enthusiasts, I'm sure you've probably read about this already But the uk's financial watchdog the fca has ordered Binance to stop all regulated activities in britain and impose stringent requirements on one of the largest crypto exchanges and the reasons for this is The usual regulatory action so concerns related to potential role and illicit activities and fraud weak general consumer protection practices And so forth So the exchange has until wednesday evening to confirm it has complied with the watchdog's Demands so something to be aware of because we have seen some ongoing volatility in some of the crypto space and a lot of the Recent downside generally over over a last couple of weeks has been very much tied to this whole kind of regulatory reaction As much as many other news particularly coming out of china as well The other thing was gold and basels 3 now basel 3 is probably You know something you would have heard about many many years ago And it is really a byproduct of result of looking to shore up the banking system from the fallout of the global Financial crisis, which of course was well over a decade ago But here we are new banking rules under basel 3 will will set to come in to force today for europe There's a bit of a different rollout geographically But let me just give you a very brief summary and i have tweeted this article which has all the detail So i won't go into it too much but Overall there's basically this thing called net stable funding ratio ns fr And what that is is a multi regime change aims to prevent another global banking crisis by requiring banks to hold more stable assets And reduce then more riskier assets on their their kind of balance sheet So the ns fr regulations are going to be introduced to banks in the european union as of today The u.s on the 1st of july and the uk on the 1st of january of 2022 So it kind of comes into effect over a slightly graduated period Essentially what it is is allocated gold Intangible form will essentially be classified as zero risk under the new rules So being the same equivalent of cash But unallocated or paper gold Which banks typically deal with most won't And what that means then essentially is that banks holding paper gold must also hold extra reserves against it and so therefore Some people have said it could have then this kind of boost to to gold prices in terms of on the demand side As the banks look to recalibrate to this new regulation Reading even this article completely split opinion about how market impactful this is going to be some people saying not at all Some people saying it's going to be absolute mayhem So i would encourage you to just have take a look at this article It really does have some more of the underlying details But something to just bring to your attention Certainly if you're if you're a gold trader to be aware of today and this week and a period of going ahead as the new regulation gets adopted Looking at the week ahead As I said payrolls really is the main feature and of course as ever that comes on friday And what does that mean? Well, it means we get the various Manufacturing PMIs coming out the u.s of which we'll keep an eye on the employment constituent wednesday then we get the ADP national employment figure We've also got chicago PMI coming out as well on wednesday So very much a us centric week and let's talk about payrolls first So the headline change in non-farm pair as you expected coming at 675 thousand That would be up from the previous 559. So seeing over a three month period Given the down low side surprises that we have is a figure that's heading in the kind of right direction and improvement in that sense The unemployment rate is projected to have dipped slightly to 5.7 from 5.8 Now labor shortages caused by worries about catching covid in the workplace Child care limitations So a lot of schools are still being working remotely meaning that parents then need to be at home in order to look after their kids Early retirements Particularly those of an older age because a lot of them have been seeing surging equity markets and saying well Hey, it's this is boosting my pension pot. And so I might as well just call call it a day and take early retirement And then also federal unemployment benefits have all been factors that have kind of led to this fairly lackluster return To the labor market even though there's been a large degree as we know reported of job availability in north america Couple of things though low covid transmission rising vaccination rates the reopening of major centers Like we've seen the last week or two in lights of new york california Have set the stage for a rebound in hiring. So the fact that this number is going to move moving back up I don't think it's too much of a surprise at this point in time As I said earlier when I started the briefing the jobs data has really been a bit of a soft spot In what otherwise if you'd imagine if this number was up the one million one and a half million figure of the last couple of months I would have thought that probably then there'd be a much more Focus on drone pound real pressure on him to start following the more hawkish tone Some of those other more hawkish minded officials have been expressing just last week But the jobs data gives reason then to be taking a more steady cautious measured hand at this point in time But as that jobs data starts to pick up and depending on how strong consistent it is over the coming weeks I think just generally it keeps it true to that General wall street consensus timeline view that jackson whole symposium Which is going to take place at the end of august is really Giving it enough ample time Kind of 10 weeks or so in order to see further economic data consistency See where we're at and probably will signal then talking about tapering to be formalized then in the september meeting So the jobs data this week for sure. It's going to be it's going to be important particularly then You know for this idea about how hawkish or not and how quickly they need to start moving that way It's going to be quite a key factor As I said, you've got the other figures so ism report thursday You've got us consumed confidence as well on tuesday both should hold firm levels with the former again highlighting supply chain Strains that are putting up costs and boosting the chances that inflation could be here to stay for longer According to analysts at ing Otherwise, yeah, you've got the opet meeting on the thursday President Xi Jinping in china will deliver a speech at the nation At the marking their hundredth anniversary of the founding of the chinese communist party. That's also happening on thursday As well and then the other notable point You've also got some eurozone inflation figures as well coming out this week so That will be on wednesday And that's pretty much it. So hopefully that gets you up to speed I know definitely focus more on the news and the fundamentals, but as I said Check out amplify live.com There's a free access section there and there's some more information that you can obtain in terms of technical charts and so on But I wish you guys a good week ahead And catch you later on. Thanks very much