 But the groups are strong, right? The groups are strong. You don't need to be creative again going into tomorrow. The stocks that are leading the way are the semi-conductors. This has been... Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good to be here, buddy. Happy Monday and hope everybody had a great day. And welcome to another edition of theaxistrader.com. Nightly update. Hope everybody is doing well. We have four days left to the new year. I hope every single year that you are in this journey, you figure things out. And I think that's the most important part. Time will always make you a better trader and heal a lot of deficiencies that we all have, right? Nobody wakes up in the morning one day and says, hey, I want to become a trader. This business has been around for a very, very long time, but you'd have to go back to kind of like the so's bandits in 94, 95, 96 to really get a good feel of people taking control of their own finances and quote unquote trading for a living. And that's kind of what we are. We're about 30, 35 years in. Nobody has all the answers. Nobody has figured it out, but slowly but surely in time as time goes by, and that's the most important part, the key to all this time goes by, you will start omitting a lot of the things that you've put in your mental roll of decks that's going to hinder your progress, and that's the most important part. So that's kind of the reflection time. Towards the end of the year, you kind of reflect, you see exactly how far you came. Definitely be proud of yourself, right? Even if it's your first year trading and you survived the first year, that's a big deal. A lot of times people in this business expire and we talk about this in nausea, but a lot of people expire way before their potential is even closely met, okay? And they always try to go back in time and go back in their mind to figure out what's wrong. So this is your first year trading. Congratulations, you made it through the first year. Now omit the things that you know you did wrong and have to improve on for 2022. If you've been doing this for 10, 12, 15, 20, 25, 30 years, whatever the case may be, you're an old fart. You're an old fart, you're an old dinosaur like I am. Again, we're just happy to be alive, right? Happy to be alive and kind of share our experiences. But the market is doing what the market does. We are at all time highs. Again, S&P closed at all time highs. Again, technology leads the way. They're marking up the end of the quarter. They're marking up the end of the year. And the most important part is you don't need to be creative right now. You really don't. You don't need to start looking for obscure stocks that nobody's ever heard of that you're trying to convince your Twitter followers to buy because this is the next one and all that stuff. Keep it simple, stupid, right? Kiss, keep it simple. The stocks that are strong, they're continue to be strong. The groups that are strong, they're gonna continue to be strong until we close out this year on Friday. And by the way, we get jipped that we don't have Friday off ahead of New Year's. But again, how many of you guys are actually gonna be full gun blazing on Friday to make your quarter for the year? Right? You know, you're probably gonna get a lighter volume day somewhere when Thursday rolls around into Friday session but the groups are strong, right? The groups are strong. You don't need to be creative. Again, going into tomorrow, the stocks that are leading the way are the semiconductors. And this has been, this has really been the leader for the last number of years. And if you go through, if you go through all the names in the semi-industry, it's kind of the same names. You got Micron, Gone Nuts. NVIDIA broke out a couple of days ago. We talked about the 291 area, continue to go nuts one day away from taking out this whole macro range that started on December the ninth. I know long, long, long two weeks ago. But the point is you're getting a lot of 320, 325, weekly call buyers coming in. Apple continues to be out of its mind attacking well-time highs. Stock doesn't care. They announced after the close because of the rise and spike in COVID, they're closing down their New York City store. That's a big deal, considering it's still around holiday time and so many people are visiting New York City. But again, the parade moves on. You got names like AMD who busted out on Friday. We talked about this on the weekend update, busted out on Friday, continues to go higher. We're seeing short-term 170, 175 calls coming in. You see names like LRCX. So go all these leaders, right? Clack and a name that I've been watching for so long. If you guys been watching this update for so long and just would not confirm was applied materials. And finally, by the graces of God and finally confirmed today, this multi, multi-channel that's been rejected three times on the daily on AMAT finally confirmed today. And look how beautiful this was. This was like a staircase to heaven. There was no down to some of this thing. One of the very few trades you're gonna come across there was literally no downtricks. Here was the 59 and all it kept on doing was going like this. It's like ever seen the prices, right? Do-do-do-do-do-do, right? So that's it is. So semiconductors continually the way they should be bought on any weakness into tomorrow's session, any dip into rising 60-minute support. It doesn't make a difference which ones you're looking at, but the strongest ones are obviously NVIDIA, AMAT, CLAC is super strong as well, broke out as well. Obviously AMD, any derivatives of semiconductors, any of the shortage thing is real. So the most important part is go with the leaders. Don't be too creative, buy them into rising 60-minute support and good things should be happening. Ironically, here's a part of the business that makes absolutely no sense. So you see people talking about you gotta wait for the COVID stocks to wake up. That play is dead, yo. Right, I think I heard that from my son say that one time. The play is dead, okay? The play was good in March of 2020. Remember, market learns to live with things, right? The market learned to live with the financial crisis, the market learned to live with 9-11, the market learned to live with COVID. Those plays that everybody's talking about, well now it's a rise in COVID, watch Zoom. No, you watch Zoom. Oh my God, docu's definitely gonna wake up. Right, all the, you gotta watch all these, these plays are dead, guys. These plays are dead unless there's a shutdown, a physical headline and shutdown that you're gonna hear from the government which we probably won't. These plays are not the same anymore. The market got comfortable with them. The economy is still doing well. If you don't believe me, look at the online shopping for Christmas. Yes, COVID cases are rising. Even my kids' schools are already going virtual the first week and a half after everybody comes back. So that part is fine. But these stocks are not the same plays as we saw in March, 2020s. Buy anything that has anything to do with stay at home. Zoom, Palatone, Chmuelatone, it's not the play anymore. These stocks need catalysts. They need earnings growth. They need at least goddamn upgrades. They need something to wake up. But for now, there's no life into these things. Ironically, the name that was kind of weird today that should have rallied with the market today was Amazon. Apparently they somehow grouped Amazon with the stay at home play today. I have no idea why. There was a two-part play on Amazon. The first part played out. The second part didn't. We'll get to that in a second. But it's very, very odd to see Amazon not participating with this whole tech rally. And it got stuffed again here at the 50-day moving average, which again is really, really important for dissecting which way the wind is gonna blow, especially on a short to medium term basis. And this was a very weird name that just didn't participate today with everything else. But again, like I said before, keep it simple, stupid, stick to the semis, stick to the names that are coming off a bottom. If you guys remember, we talked about this on the weekend video. We talked about Facebook coming out of a bottom channel, did incredibly well today, UPST, coming out of a bottom channel. We talked about on the video did incredibly well today, stick to the names that are coming off the bottom channels that are confirming their 10-day moving average and the semiconductors, whether on weakness or into strength into macro channels, they should do pretty well. So let's talk about Tay's pivots. Again, going into tomorrow, you're bullish, right? You're bullish until you're not. Until you're bullish until the market gives you a reason not to be bullish. And that is closing below a major area. So here was the first area. And ironically, this was Amazon. This is a two-part scenario. Initial cash flow trade above the $34.42 needs to build. And the reason why I said initial cash flow, $34.56 was the 50-day moving average. And I said, basically the first trade is gonna be into cash flow, into this $34.56. But the most important part is the close. Any close above $34.56 would be really, really bullish considering how much we saw of the $3,500 and 3,500 weeklies come in, it's very, very ironic. They sold the stock off, but that's exactly with the whole point of understanding the level. So the stock went from literally $34.42, it stopped at $34.58, and then it got rejected right off the 50-day moving average. So this is the number going forward, that $35.58 for all you guys setting alerts. Set that alert on Amazon. There's nothing to think about. Any close or any confirmation on Amazon above $34.58, that's the number. That's the number that's gonna let this thing go. But again, it's not on immediate watch for tomorrow because well, it sold off 30 points after it got rejected. But nice little cash flow, at least at the beginning of the day, UPST, we talked about this in the weekend video, 151 Needs to Build. They were coming in for some pretty aggressive call buying on UPST. Stock went from 151 all the way to 163. They were coming for short-term 170 and 175 calls. You know, I think there's maybe one more move tomorrow, especially in the dips. If you could get a week or open and this thing could go into 60-minute dips, maybe trap some shorts, go red to green, maybe get some move into this 170 area of supply. So let's definitely keep an eye on that for continuation move. I was watching Roku, never participated. I was watching Square, never participated. I was watching DWAC, never participated. Coinbase did really, really well today. Coinbase 270 Needs to Build. Here was Coin, right? So here was Coin. Here's this whole channel here at 270 here. So it took out to 270, went all the way up to the next supply zone at 282. Keep an eye on this thing for a macro close. If this thing closes above 284, you could start filling in a lot of this gap all the way to the 50-day moving average to 302. So keep an eye on that. A nice move there today. I still like this MRCY. It looks like Friday they got a stake from somebody. Had a huge move on Friday. Inside day today of wrestling. Maybe this thing goes the next day or so. Let's keep an eye on this thing for the next day or so for continuation. Tesla, and again, this wasn't supposed to be any primary focus. Like I talked about last night in the video, in my opinion, at least before the day started, we talked about how this thing was value play on dips, right? But again, there's strength in this channels and channels are meant to be confirmed. So, you know, we talked about this for super experienced traders only. And again, everybody knows the experience level they are. 1085 second entry quarter size, that's it. When the stock is up 400 points exaggerating, but when the stock is up 400 points in three days, you don't want to take full size on any pivot. So quarter size, max two-point stop, new traders stay away. And Tesla is Tesla. This is what Tesla do, right? This is what Tesla do. So here's the 1085, right? So this whole channel right here. Here's the whole, excuse me, right here. Here's the whole 1085 level. And this damn thing went to nearly 1120, which correlated to the upper linear regression line on the daily chart. Fantastic move on Tesla. Again, it really needs a day to breathe or so, or maybe two days to breathe. But again, who's to say? This thing is just an absolute beast. If you continue to play channels and know your risk and know your tolerance, you should be okay. So really, really good move on Tesla. Take on the way up. Lucid, I was waiting for a downside pivot that never came. Amat 159 rejected three times. Again, we talked about the stock in nausea, finally closed really, really well. Here was Amat. Again, right off the 159 area, closed pretty much at the highs of the day within five cents to 163. If this thing continues tomorrow, I think you could see probably 65, 70 this week. Obviously, any dips into rising 60-minute support should definitely be entertained there as well. Coinbase is coming into supply, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. So going into tomorrow, guys, again, semis, semis, semis, don't get creative. Follow the options market. If your stock is not getting any institutional money flow with a potential break, it's probably not gonna get emphasized as much as those who did. If you look at the big movers today, Apple continues to see mega flow. Tesla continues to see mega flow. Nvidia, again, 320, 325 weeklies, I think the 320 has a shot to test in the next couple of days. You saw UPST, $20 out of the money calls today. That is the formula. You have technical analysis plus option flow usually gives you high probability. Guys, have a great night, God bless, and I will see you all tomorrow.