 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Tuesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you got markets picking up some steam to the downside of things. 16 points in the last about 45 minutes the S&Ps have given up. We got lows overnight, only about five points. Excuse me, away from that price level of $43.46. You back things out a bit and we're coming into the lows of yesterday. Somewhat like the program yesterday in terms of coming on the air. Look where we are, right? At about 8 o'clock, 9 in the morning, we're right where we were. Meanwhile, you dive down to $43.38, quite an acceleration up to above $43.80 and we are back down to $43.50. So just in the last 24 hours, I mean, look at that. The market 10 points lower before it accelerates for the entirety of the day. And then just like that, we basically give it up. You have the S&Ps off almost session lows outside of that 3 a.m. Eastern time low of about $43.45. But we're negative by 28 points. That's 2 thirds percent. We have the NASDAQ 100 negative 2 thirds percent as well off 97 points. The Dow, excuse me, off about 6 tens percent right now off 197 points and you jump to the Russell off by 10 as well. We jumped accrued quite the dive lower, $88.19. We're back to $89.13, the price accrued, go contract this morning, down about $10 at 19.27. Let's jump to the dollar index before we hit notes and bonds. Dollar gets to a high of 106.20 overnight. We're back to 105.91, excuse me, somewhat more we were yesterday in the same vein as the markets. There it is during the nine o'clock hour. So I guess you kicked off the nine o'clock hour yesterday about 105.80. We're pushing 105.91 backing out from those highs and notes and bonds, a slight reprieve from the trend recently at least we're at higher price, lower yield. You have the tenure. Let's pull up the yield curve right now. The tenure just above 4.5% the two year at about 5.12. There's your tenure. We almost got a 107 handle last night on the tenure. We're backing off a bit at 108.12. You jump to the 30 year. We're positive by 10 ticks right now. We jumped to the two year and you can see basically flat on the two year. And what do we have about 5.12% the yield on that two year. Okay, we jump back to the markets. So there's a couple of things to talk about this morning. The shutdown is one of them as we jump around. Forgive me, now that we're jumping around we got bond traders in there as well. Here we go. We're gonna talk some automakers. All right, some cool statistics in here. This one from Bloomberg. Yeah, out early this morning talking about the UAW fight against billions in buybacks. How are investors gonna think about buybacks? Are they on the table? The dividend yields, I think it's Ford. We'll get into the article pushing about 4.8% the amount of billions these companies have given in buybacks over the last 10 years. The workers trying to use that as leverage saying some of that should be returned to not just the shareholders but the employees and workers at the company. Some of the numbers pretty startling when you get into it. And they're talking to money managers and that's the difference here. Some of them are actually saying it's remarkable that you would be out here saying this but maybe they see an impasse and the risk is much more to a strike that extends going forward. Right, if you're a shareholder is it really the end of the world? I mean, you're in a tough negotiation right now. Maybe buybacks are the thing that comes onto the table. Dividends of course buybacks basically dividends just in a different form. GM says it has repurchased $14.2 billion in common stock since it returned to the public market after the government saved it. In 2010, let me think about that, right? $15 billion going back to shareholders after it was bailed out by the government and the workers and now arguing that they and we've pulled up the charts here before, right? Real wages for these car company employees not going up with the market at all. They've used buybacks and dividends like a great many other companies to return capital to our owners after we've invested for growth. Which is true, that's how it works. Although it can go both ways, the truth lies somewhere in between, as they say. Ford bought back 3.5 billion in shares over the decade from 2012 to 2022, prefers to issue dividends and where's that number? There it is right there. So Ford's annual dividend yield is about 4.8% right now. You have some in here talking about there's probably a happy medium where you can stop share buybacks for some time and share the equity with labor and not just shareholders. That's a client portfolio manager at Zax Investment Management which owns Ford who knows how much Ford and manages $15 billion in assets. Pretty interesting you have an asset manager managing $15 billion saying maybe it's time to rethink plowing ahead with the buybacks and the dividends at a time when labor is going up and you may have to assign some capital to those negotiations. Now for others, no, non-starter. This one makes more sense. I do not see an appetite for decreased dividend yield and who is this? Oh, no, this is the same Brian Mulberry. Mulberry, excuse me. So just random portfolio manager. Yeah, so they don't see it deep. He's saying don't touch the dividend, right? I don't see an appetite for decreased dividend yield. If interest rates stay over 5% next year, Ford's at 4.8% right now that dividend yield will be important to investors. And so maybe it's buybacks. Yeah, dividend cuts are not a good sign. That's for sure when you're talking about these types of companies especially. But look, they've lost $20 billion in market cap. GM and Ford just in the two months leading up to these contract negotiations. Depending if they get a contract, those shares could pop, but they might not pop. Maybe they need to pay more money than the market's thinking and that will be a drain on some of those buybacks and dividends in the future which may recalibrate the price of that stock going forward. No, excuse me, a 40 day strike against GM in 2019 costs the company about $3.6 billion in earnings before interest taxes depreciation. So there you go, $3.6 billion for a 40 day strike and where are we right now? We'll probably approach in those levels, right? When was the strike? Market's fading a bit under 43.50 right now. We jumped to some of those equities. There's Ford for you. Backing off a bit with the market, you jump over to GM. A little bit of a long-term picture on these to see the fall off, man. Right, from 40 to 33 pushing those lows. Let's take a look at a longer-term chart on a five-year weekly, right back to before COVID which is your 618 area on GM. Let's see how Ford shapes up and see how they did during COVID. Where's their Fibonacci retracement zone? How cool is that, right? Look it. Man, is that the same calibration as the GM one? It sure is. Look at that 618, right? So Ford settles a little bit higher in price in terms of where it was coming into COVID which was at about $10. You're chopping around at 12, but what do you do? You pull right back to the 618, okay? Yeah, you get some bouncing around. You make it to a low actually on July 4th of 10.61. But you can see how that area acting as an area of support now and you're sitting basically right at it which is remarkable. 12.58 and where are you sitting on GM? Absolutely identical area. Different price structure in terms of where you were prior to COVID. You're sitting basically right at or just below where you were on GM shares. But the whole run from COVID, what do you do? You come back to the 618 and you chop around right at that area. Pretty cool to see how those two trading like that. All right, jumping back to the market. We'll talk some equities, folks. When we get back, we get the S&Ps. Push and pre-market session, those off 30 points right now, seven tenths percent, all the markets in the red. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back talking with our man, Kevin Hinks from Fast Market on the Schwab Network. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. 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Back folks, we got the S&Ps right now off about 27 points, trading at 43.50, and you can see, somewhat near the lows of yesterday's session, we made it down to 43.38, just after I began the program, too, you're talking about it in the 9.10 bar. So within, basically right now in the day, we were down at those lows of 43.38, within about 10 points of that price level. We jumped over to the VIX this morning, volatility index, maybe a little bit of a new normal. Well, we get a little bit of a market shakeout. We got the VIX at 17.69, and yeah, I mean, you back it up to last Wednesday, right? I guess the Fed really accelerated things and we have not calmed down yet. You take a look at this thing on a weekly basis and still see where we are in terms of the context of lower price on the VIX. We were down to 12.68 and change. That was your low just a couple of weeks ago. This is a weekly chart, but you can see when these spikes really get going, right? If this is a spike that really gets going, 17 is nowhere near, even talking about, let's back it up on five years. COVID spikes are through the stratosphere. The year after that, volatility was still high, but this market charged higher, right? But look how high we were in the year 2021. Just zooming in on 2021, never made it below a price point of 14.10. You got 15.19 on one occasion. You got 15.38. Late in the year, you got prices of 14 and 16. The market just charged higher and you had a VIX with severe spikes across the board. And then of course you get 2022, when the market does get some extreme pullbacks, you got multiple spikes of 35, 34, 36 and 37. All things considered, we're sitting at 17 and change. Context is important, as I like to say. All right, to talk about some of the market action, folks, let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks, from Fast Market on the Schwab Network, every trading day right here on Tiger TV at 12 noon Eastern time. Let's jump into it. Kevin Hinks, we have some red across the board this morning. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, heavy markets again this morning, similar to what we saw yesterday, Tommy. So let's see at the end of a very bearish month with yields lower, with the US dollar pretty much flat, with crude oil lower. Let's see investors buy a box. Remember, big reason we're down so far this morning is because the foreign markets were heavy overnight. They bleed into our futures. So let's see if this market is in a buying mode like it was yesterday, frankly, open local. The day is young. We saw a spike low yesterday. I was talking about it in my program and then quite an acceleration higher. We pull back overnight. You know, I was looking at the charts, Kevin, getting ready to talk to you this morning and we talked to you every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and so I looked at where the market was Thursday at about 9, 9.30 in the morning and we're a little bit lower. But interesting, I saw, we're basically right where we were on the tenure at that price point, about 108.10. We get the tenure pushing about 4.5%. What do you think about yields, man? As we have about a month out to the Fed meeting, I find this one so interesting. I have it up on the Thinkorswim platform and boy, on a daily basis, we almost got a 107 handle this morning. But what do you think about this yield conversation? I think yields are showing what the overall trading community thinks of inflation and the fight on inflation and the overall, you know, Jamie Diamond's comments this morning or overnight talking about a potential 7% Fed funds rate and he doesn't think the markets are ready for a 7% now. Full disclosure, Amy Diamond, a 7% Fed funds rate would be a windfall for JP Morgan so he may be talking his book there slightly and he's been known to give some high peaking levels of the Fed funds rate but he's talking about potential for sticky inflation. You know, it's a good news, Tommy, for some of your listeners. We're about to get in Friday of this week, we're gonna get the income and outlays number and the consensus of the headline year over year is for your consensus to move from 0.5, the core, the number that Jerome Powell and the Fed looks at is supposed to come down from 4.3 to 4.9%, I mean, so that would be news for the world market. And so I guess we march forward towards Friday on that number, Kevin, and I appreciate the update on those numbers, man, keep in track of it because that economic data, we know it's an important one. One more subject, the auto workers in the union. We see that the Hollywood writers seem like they have a deal. What's your general take on these auto workers? I know it's anyone's guess, the negotiation's a tough one but it seems like they're a little far aparty. Right now, at least on the headline number, I was reading this morning just talking about the amount of pain these auto makers had to handle when they had strikes in the prior years. What do you think about GM and Ford chopping around at some lower levels right now and just the whole take on that negotiation? You know, years ago, the Supreme Court actually ruled that the President of the United States could stay out of industry warfare. They ruled on that. They made him stay out of it. That's not gonna be the case today. I think there's a chance you're gonna see the President of the United States today in a picket line with the UAW workers. So I think that could be a history-making photo opportunity. Now, does that backfire on him or does it help him? I have no idea, Tommy, but you're gonna see some interesting pictures today, that's for sure. As this administration, this pro-union administration goes all in with the workers. I think it's so cool getting seen. I mean, you talk about some high-stakes negotiations, man. With AI on the forefront, it's kind of interesting. You know, the Hollywood writers, the whole deal going on on the heels of some pretty strong contracts, I'm sure, as they're saying, like the UPS one, we saw some pretty lofty headline numbers. I'm sure that doesn't make things easy for the auto makers, excuse me. Kevin, I appreciate it as always, man. What are you guys talking about coming up on Fast Market at 12 today? Do you have any equities? Sure, Costco earnings, that also will cover Costco today. Salesforce and Broadcom, chip makers. I like it, man, Costco, yeah, searching out those deals. Salesforce, I got it up here on the Thinkorswim platform and of course Broadcom. Kevin, I appreciate it as always, man. I look forward to the program at 12 o'clock today and we'll talk to you tomorrow. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Always a pleasure, folks, check it out. You heard it, Costco earnings after the bell, yeah. Costco, my dad and I were talking about this over the weekend, I mean, just in terms of prices, the difference in prices when you're talking about even just Walmart compared to a Target or a Publix, and then of course you go and you see why these companies are holding up pretty well, man, because in times where people are trying to save some cash, there is your chart of Walmart, right? My dad was saying, we gotta buy more Walmart for little Tommy, man, because just the value that they represent, he sees it, I say, you know what, I look at the chart, look at that thing, man, right? You're pushing all-time highs at 165.85, that is a one-way trip, man. Let's go a little longer term. Look at this thing, all right? Whistle. Walmart, talking about low of about 56 bucks, you make it up almost to 153, that's almost 100 A to B. You get that? What are you talking about, 220 or something? Maybe that's your consolidation area. There's your COVID pullback on 2020. You can't even see it on the chart. You consolidate, you drop off with the market last year, and you're pushing all-time highs, look at this thing. Just a one-way trip, man. You make that high on September 13th. Yeah, we're not the only ones figuring that out, man. I mean, some of the price discrepancies are huge. I'll tell you a quick story in terms of publics versus even target, right? We're in target the other day. Tommy, little Tommy's becoming a Pringles man, like his grandfather, okay? So we're looking at Pringles. And Pringles has three for six bucks, so $2 per can. They're marked down from like 229, I think, or 239. I say, yeah, that's not bad. We'll buy three cans. Everybody likes Pringles. I get to publics the next day. Publix's published price is 204. Basically $2 a pop. Publix is expensive. So target sale price is Publix's regular price. Meanwhile, who knows what they are at Walmart? I said everybody's expensive right now, man. Stay tuned, folks. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open. You get the market trading near pre-market session lows. We're off by 30 points in the S&Ps. That's 7-tenths percent. NASDAQ off 7-tenths, exactly the same. Off 104, the Dow right now, pretty close to that. Off 6-tenths percent. Off 208, you check out notes and bonds right now. The 10-year, we jump over. 108-11, we were all the way to almost a 108 last night overnight. Three in the morning, you catch a slight lift, but we're still talking about 4.5% right now and jumping around. So, different articles I was checking out this morning. This one from the journal. So out late last night, basically midnight last night. Rising interest rates. Americans are finally starting to feel the sting from the Fed's rate hikes. I mean, check out the average monthly car payment in the second quarter. A new car loan. The higher number here, of course, in the darker red, we'll call it. The used car loan. Whatever you want to call that one. I don't get why they can't use simple, discerning colors. And they go for like a light red and a dark red, right? Why, why, who, how does that happen? I feel like, you know, anyway, we digress. You're talking about a new car loan. The average payment, $728. Used, $530. That, just remarkable. Now, car loans, what's a car loan going for today? Probably depends on the car you're going, the promotion they have going, but you're probably paying 6%, 7%, potentially. Maybe you're getting a good deal at 1.9 from one of the dealers at certain times or promotion times. Before you talk about buying a house in the same degree. Now, we all know these numbers, okay? But I just want to remind myself of them. Even a loan at 240,000, okay? If you're not even talking about it, and that would be a $300,000 home with 20% down, right? 20% of 300,000 is 60,000. You'd be getting a loan for 240,000. When you were getting a loan at 4%, not every cherry pick in the lows, $1,146. You're getting a loan at 7% right now. You're talking about 1,600 bucks, man. That's an increase of what? Over 30%, I think is that number? Because 1,146, is that what I just said? 1,146, man. Yeah, an increase over 30% on your payment, not including taxes and insurance, of course, which have gone up as well. We have an insurance crisis going on in Florida. Okay, but let's just say that $300,000 house at 4% got you 1,146. Let's say that went up to 400,000. And let's say now you need to save 80 grand for your down payment, which is 20%. You don't need to do this, okay? If you're a first-time home buyer, there are great deals where you put 3% down, 5% down. If you're actually gonna live there, you can handle the payment. And don't anticipate the payment going down, folks, okay? Because what if it doesn't go down? Make sure you can handle the payment that you're locking yourself into. But let's just say the house goes up to 400,000. You still put 20% down. That leaves you with a loan that is now $320,000. Okay, and that loan is not at 4% anymore. It's at 7% if you're getting a deal and a half. It's probably at 7.5. And you can see that for that same house, your payment just doubled. Went from 1146 to 2129. And all that happened was the price of that home went from 300,000 pre-COVID to 400,000. And there's been much bigger swings in Florida areas, okay? That's only a 25% increase over that period of time. And the interest rate went from four to seven. And realistically, there's been bigger increases there as well, right? I mean, the lows were like 3%, 3.5 potentially. And right now nobody is getting a 7% mortgage right now, okay? The price of that payment has doubled. So that's a difficult one. It's why rent prices are there. And it's also why nobody wants to sell their house, which is gonna matter as well. So they don't have that chart here, but I think that chart even is even worse when you put the average monthly mortgage payment for a median home purchase. It's just astronomical. The average typical American household would need to use 42 weeks of income to buy a new car as of August, up from 33 weeks, three years ago, illustrating the same deal, man, interest payments. Now, you know what even gets more bonkers though, for a quick second? Is that four to seven is rough, okay? But when you start going up, so we just went up 3 percentage points. And watch, let's do this number on a simple $300,000 loan, okay? Because 7% puts you at about $2,000. Where's four puts you? Four puts you at 1432, okay? Four's not in play anymore. Seven's in play. But you see that going from four to seven, which is only a 3% increase, went from 1432, let me zoom this in even just to make sure it's as big as possible, okay? 1432 to about 2,000. So a $550 increase, right? You go 3% again. You go 633, okay? It goes up, of course, because the interest rates go up. So you go from 10 to 13, right? You go from 2633 to 3,300. You can see that every interest rate that you go up from here is obviously a bigger number because it's an interest rate that you have to repay the principal of. And meanwhile, what's happening? That interest is accruing that you have to pay in the later years. And when you're talking about 7%, 8%, 9%, those numbers start going up more dramatically than when you get a shift from three to 3.5%, okay? It's kind of the same deal either way. So some pretty lofty numbers, man. And let's just say you're getting an interest rate at 8% right now, which is a very real number, okay? Your payment more than doubles for that same home. And we're just talking about buying a $400,000 home, which in many areas would be a median purchase home price depending on where you are up from 300,000. And in many areas, folks, the prices of homes exceeded that run from three to 400,000, especially when we're biased in Florida, but in many areas across the country. And there really hasn't been a huge pullback even during the March to 7% interest rates. All right, let's see what else we got going on. Because what they talked about really, that's the main point I wanted to make of this article. We was talking about either what people can afford a new car loan. You're talking about 42 weeks of pay up from 33. That's a mammoth shift, man. You got to work nine extra weeks. You got to work over two extra months to pay for your car up from 33 just a few years ago. Mammoth shifts. Is that going to hold? That's a real question, right? They talk about credit cards in here, which is important as well. Those numbers going up in a big way. Went from about, yeah, here it is, 14.6%, a typical credit card, 14.6% in February of 2022, up to now 21%, and guess what? Not a lot of people were plowing money into their credit card in the beginning of 2022 when we had a lot of stimulus money, but now people are. As America's collective credit card debt just passed $1 trillion for the first time, and it's a sticker shock price when you're not used to getting that type of interest even on the money that you had on your credit card, right? Maybe you had a few grand on your credit card, and it wasn't a big deal because the interest rate wasn't as bad. Then what happens? You run three grand to five grand to seven grand, and before you know it, you got seven grand on your credit card and you're paying 21%, and that probably is going up from right there. I was surprised to see 21% is the average rate. I think it's higher, and that's where the primary credit card up to 25%. They have somebody here. Yeah, I think that number is probably much more akin to what most people are getting. You have student loan payments coming back due, of course, is the numbers they're talking about in here as well. Sticker price, it matters, man, and if you're looking to get a car, I would go get a car, folks, because the risk to some of these automakers, if things really extend, the battle is on, and I don't think everybody's gonna be willing to give up those share buybacks and the dividends, man, because what happens next go around, and it's a negotiation. That's how it plays out. We got the NASDAQ coming back near the lows of August. That low, 14,609, was still about 220 points, but you see when you put this thing on a weekly. Coming back to test that low, potentially markets and the red folks, stay tuned, we'll be coming back. We'll talk some specific equities, we'll be right back. 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But the full complexities of these instruments can oftentimes allude even the most experienced traders. Whether you're a seasoned trader looking to sharpen your knowledge on options or you're completely new to the market, Teddy Kextat is here to help. On Wednesday, September 27th, from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time, Teddy is hosting a live stream that will teach you how to capitalize on time with calendar stock option spreads. Teddy will also go over how to trade stocks and other market movements without large capital allocation, how to expand portfolio diversification, how to maximize potential returns, basic entry and exit techniques, and more. If that wasn't enough of a reason to attend, Teddy will also be answering all questions live. If you're serious about making money in this market, head over to the front page of TFNN.com today to sign up for Teddy's live stream, TFNN, Educating Investors. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets in negative territory. S&Ps off 27, NASDAQ off about 100, Dow off 167, all the markets catch a little bit of a lift and you get the Russell. How about that? Sneaks its way into positive territory by one point right now. You jump over to crude, quite the acceleration off the lows this morning of 88, 19. We're pushing $90 just like that. You jump over to gold. We got dollar strength, gold weakness, gold at 19, 23 right now in that dollar. Yeah, dollar strength, a back above 106 for the dollar index at a time when you've seen the yields. Look at these moves, man, right? 820 in the morning. I'm in the chair getting ready most of the hour between eight and nine. I'm watching the markets. I'm up with Tommy in the morning. We're having coffee. He's having a blueberry waffle. We're watching the markets, but eight o'clock, I'm pretty much in the chair getting ready for the hour, watching the market, maybe looking at some trades potentially. We were pushing 108.17, just like that. We're at 108.09. It's been a one-way trip basically since 8.45 this morning. Lower price, higher yield is that number. And that's giving the dollar some strength. The market holding up somewhat well in terms of pulling back a bit. You see the move as we've had that move. S&Ps were at 43.65 at 8.15 this morning. You've had yields go up. You've had the dollar go up. You've had the market pull back. So keep your eye on those yields. Keep your eye on the dollar. I've been talking about on my program yesterday, right? We are at some, it seems like on a longer term basis, and I did this all yesterday, so I'll do it quick right now. It seems like on a longer term basis that we could be at a lower price point in terms of an area that we may face resistance. And that may be the case, okay? But if you just look at the chart going back prior to the financial crisis of 2008, we are still at a 115 handle in the 30 year and basically for the entirety of that time outside of a few pikes, spikes. The 30 year was trading at a lower price than that, meaning it was trading with a higher yield. And that's not talking about going back to the inflation of the 80s, okay? That's going back to 1998, the year I graduated high school, my entirety through college. I don't remember the rates being obscene. Maybe they were. I wasn't buying a home mortgage when I was in college, but I was paying for student debt at times. So keep it in mind, context is important. Okay, talking about options folks, talking about time. We're going to jump to our man, Teddy Cakes, that you heard the advertisement during the break there. So tomorrow night, four till 5 p.m. Eastern time, Teddy's going to be in there for a live webinar talking about calendar stock option spreads. I've talked about it a couple of times, man. And we'll talk to Teddy tomorrow morning as we always do at 40 past the hour. So he'll talk about this, of course, but this is one strategy I'm really looking forward to spending an extended period of time on. Many times, folks, you can look up the definition of some of these options spreads, but this one talking about the strategies in particular, because what happens is you have two different time durations, okay? So you have the ability to roll the shorter term time duration. And I'm being very general, this is why Teddy's taken an hour on this one specific strategy tomorrow, capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads. Even if you don't trade complex options, folks, understanding how they trade, understanding how they're priced, understanding what that means, about what the market is pricing in for expectations, for underlying equities. Very important to understand how options trade, because it gives you so much of what the market is expecting, whether it's implied volatility of that underlying move of an equity over X period of time. So look forward to that tomorrow, four till five, the cost is $97. It's a one-time payment. It's an hour-long live webinar. We should have a good turnout. We had one for Teddy's last webinar and it'll be archived if he can't attend live or you just wanna watch it again to get the most out of that as well. Tomorrow, four till five, check it out the front page of TFNN. All right, what else have we got pulled up here? Let's check it out. How about bond traders going back to bond? So important right now. Bond traders, we're looking for the shutdown for the next big wild card, man. How's this one gonna go, right? So another article I have pulled up here talking about the shutdown. That's the same article we just talked about. But the way they're gonna get it done is you're gonna have moderates turn to a rare maneuver to avoid a lengthy government shutdown. That seems to be what could happen. Republican moderates could turn to a rare maneuver to allow a vote on the bill without the speaker actually putting it to a vote, okay? The plan puts these vulnerable Republicans in terms of the moderates, including several from Democrat-friendly districts in New York, firmly at odds with the hardlanders of their party that are putting up quite a resistance. It could, however, limit a disruptive shutdown that threatens to stretch for months or a little more. It's a discharged petition. Discharged petition, get that out. It was adopted by the House in 1910 as a check on the speaker's power and it would force a vote on a bill without his approval. They've been successfully deployed just twice this century. We're living in exceptional times as they say, folks, and we sure are, but keep your eye on that. And you just need five Republicans, I believe, yeah. Let's see. Yeah, only five Republicans must join with the Democrats to bring it about is the case. 32 Republicans have signed onto a white partisan bill to fund the government through January 11th, and they need five to get that done, I guess, to put it to a discharged petition and put it up for a vote without the speaker. It is remarkable how close this country is 50-50, how partisan everything is 50-50 in terms of nothing can get done. And maybe you start to see that shift back to moderates in the middle. I mean, this is one example, right? Where you're gonna have moderates in the middle, moderate Democrats, excuse me, not moderate Republicans, potentially go with Democrats to put it up for a vote and keep the government open. But that, of course, could cause quite a headache for notes and bonds. And just talking about it on a fundamental basis, man, we've talked a lot about it, okay? And protect yourself in terms of, boy, we've talked about the CD rates, right? We're pushing today, again, I always pull it up because I'm interested, man. A five-year ladder right now is 5.11%. A five-year ladder is 5.11%. That is quite a number, folks, for risk-free returns when this is what your stock market has done. We just traded from 3,500 up to 3,349. So yields could be recalibrating here, and I think they are, which is why I keep bringing things back to the 30-year and putting it up on a chart that takes out the financial crisis from about 2008, 2009 on, nope, that didn't do it. Oh, I'm just zooming in on the wrong one. And we're sitting basically near the higher echelon. There's 115 in change in terms of where this 30-year is trading right now, and that gives you just the idea that you wanna make sure you're protected if yields go a little bit higher. That's the risk of locking in a five-year ladder right now, okay? And that's why I like the ladders and I talk about the ladders. Because don't just lock in a five-year CD, which you can get 4.75% for, okay? Why do that when you can have the ability to protect yourself on both ways, right? Interest rates soar higher, the Fed hikes things to a degree of 7%, like Diamond was talking about today. Well, what happens? What happens is you get 5.55% on your one-year CD. In 12 months from right now, you take that one, you roll that one out five years, and guess what? You are rewarded on the five-year on that for the higher inflation numbers and the higher yield to get there for protecting yourself. Ladders are a great way to do it, because they protect you both ways. They give you a real rate of return right now over the inflation rate, and they're gonna stay that way throughout the future. Talked about them a lot, man, but I'm in a brave new world in terms of the numbers that we're talking about here, because to put things in perspective, right? I graduated college in 2002. I've never seen numbers where you can get this type of interest risk-free on assets, because look at where we are. If you zoom in anywhere we are on this chart after about 2006, all right? I was out of college for a few years, moved down here. Really wasn't managing assets or even thinking about it in any degree, especially not thinking about it on a fixed-income basis. Meanwhile, we haven't seen low price like this on the 10-year since 2007. So yeah, it's a sticker shock to me in terms of risk-free rate of return. As markets turn lower, one more segment, folks. S&Ps off 35, we'll be right back. The Gold Report. As a precious metal gold is still king, it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Back folks, we got the S&Ps off about 37 points right now. You take a look at this chart. We've been talking about it. You got two different trends here. The one-way trip from March, you trade up from 38.49 to 46.34. The 618 to that area brings you down to about 41.41. We are coming right into the 38.2 area, okay? So we've talked about the two different trends and then you take the larger trend here, which lines you up on the 38.2. So you take the 38.2 from the larger trend, the 618 from the shorter term trend, both of those going up to the recent cycle high, July 27th of 46.34. You have a nice area of confidence in there, but I want to talk about real quick because this pullback here on the shorter term basis, look at that, you get the gap from June 9th, you gap higher as you roll over on the futures. Now that's a roll gap, okay? So the markets always jump higher on that, but boy, that was an acceleration. I remember it. The 38.2 is right where you're coming into, man. 43.27. This area though, that had been resistance, maybe that turns into support back there in 41.68. Okay, talking about home prices. We've been talking about mortgages. How about it, man? This morning, home prices in the US hit a record high, erasing the recent decline. There it is, no pullback whatsoever. Prices have gained 5.3% so far this year through July and that erases the decline from last year when you had a pullback from last year's peak in June of 2022 to January 2023 when the market was slowing. On a year-over-year basis, it's up 1%. Where's the number? Here it is. Okay, on a year-over-year basis, I had 1%. Here we go. On a year-over-year basis, home prices nationally increase 1% when prices were flat in June. So they're back above the highs, even as we have rates pushing about 4. Excuse me, 7.5% is what they're pushing. And this market is pushing the lows. Be careful, folks. I mean, we're only 140 points away from that 4,200 area. And boy, it wouldn't be too surprising to give back the 618 of this dramatic move in March and you challenge basically an area that was an area of resistance, turning into an area of support at above 4,200. Thanks for tuning in, folks. Stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chap. He's back in the chair. He's ready with the Tiger Technician Tower coming up next. Don't forget about Teddy's option webinar. Calendar spreads tomorrow after my dad's program. Stay tuned, folks. Basil's up next and I'll talk to you tomorrow morning. Have a great Tuesday, everybody.