 Good afternoon everybody welcome to New America. It's a great pleasure to a welcome you and be welcome our two distinguished speakers who have published a paper Really looking at what the future of Iraq holds. It's a very timely paper because as you know on May 12th Iraq has its Parliamentary elections. It's also the day but President Trump can choose to pull out of the Iran deal should he choose to do so so Doug and Bartle are going to talk a little bit about the main findings of that paper Will open it up to a larger discussion Doug is a former director for the NSC for Iraq He's also a senior fellow here at ASU senior fellow here at near America Frequently in Iraq does business in Iraq was there in February and Bartle It's also had a long Association with Iraq started reporting there in 2004 has been back there frequently since Is writing a history of Iraq beginning with Abraham. He's got to the 19th century but the book is and He also does business in Iraq and was there most recently in July So these are two of the world's leading experts on the subject and we're very lucky to have them here And I'm going to turn it over to Doug Thanks to all of you for coming Bartle and I are Very happy to have our paper Iraq after Isis and we didn't commercially print any public copies But there's nothing stopping you from getting the PDF and printing it off yourself Very quickly a word of thanks both to Peter who gave us the the green light to go ahead and publish this paper And to David Sturman who did our editing the typesetting fact-checking Re footnoted the footnotes a huge thanks to David for everything he did to make this paper possible Iraq's in a really Well, Iraq is in a far better place today Then certainly any of us even the most optimistic of us would have templated in the dark days in 2014 when Isis was coming down to Baghdad and Even those of us who had a little bit of slightly cooler heads I mean I was on CNN frequently saying no no Baghdad is not gonna fall Baghdad is not going to fall Baghdad It's not going to fall to somewhat incredulous interviewers But even so where Iraq is today is Shockingly good by no means perfect, but given the depth of despair that Iraq was in Just four years ago. We really are in a remarkable place and I think we just need to state that up front That the Iraqis as a people have really shown their resilience And that Iraq as a people mostly pulled themselves out of this themselves Yes, a lot of help from the United States a lot of help from international institutions We'll talk about later the World Bank and the IMF have been quite helpful a number of countries Most notably the Germans have been very engaged with Iraq the what the coalition Under first General Allen and then Brett McGurk brought to Iraq in terms of the in the air power the intelligent sharing the training the equipping all Really contributed, but fundamentally the Iraqis did this themselves the Iraqis paid this price in blood They were the ones who decided where Where how Iraq was going to be reconquered and in what order? You know in 2014 the Americans wanted to go straight to Mosul And the Iraqis were clear now We're gonna liberate Ambar first and then and only then head north so this is the Iraqis victory We both need to celebrate it with them And I think that will be an important theme of what we talk about today Because this victory is the Iraqis victory. It has an entirely different flavor than earlier events This is not 2008 where it was primarily the United States with some Iraqi cooperation But primarily the United States that defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq This that was a United States victory clearly good for Iraq, but a United States victory This one is an entirely different flavor Primarily the bulk of what happened this last time since 2014 is all about the Iraqis and it's the Iraqi story So let me talk about two issues before I hand it off to my co-author I'll first talk about where we are in terms of the security situation in Iraq as the former military officer I'm the one who gets to do this. I've been going to Iraq since 2004 So as I was telling a client not too long ago I've now pretty much have 14 years on this file With a nodal exception of one year that I spent in Afghanistan in 2010 when it was the new black But now back to Iraq. So let's talk about security in Iraq briefly Again, this is a remarkable turnaround And I think any object objective observer has to now say that the Iraqis Have one of the best militaries if not the best military in the region or at least the best ground forces Let's be let's be more precise the best ground forces in the region Again an incredible turnaround for an Iraqi army that was quite frankly humiliated by its performance in 2014 But again fast forward for years and you have an army that's able to do some quite amazing things to do bridging Operations and this may not sound very important to to those of you who don't do military affairs But professional officers know bridging operations are complicated really complicated and the Iraqis and several instances at Ramadi at a few times in Nino were able to Conduct military operations going over military bridges that were laid for the purpose of getting forces across The know the rivers that that characterize Iraq So if not the best ground forces in the region certainly a strong competitor Especially the counter-terrorist the counter-terrorism service about which we'll talk more So this is great moving forward though. We need to have a shift in effort We need to be thinking about two things police training and domestic intelligence So Isis has been conquered as a ground-holding force. This is a very very good thing That does not mean that there is no longer Isis in Iraq. We know that there are pockets in Diyala We know that there are pockets up by Kirk cook There continues to be a small presence in the town of Tarmia something that haunted me in 2004 and 2007 It's still a problem this little town in the very northeast corner of Baghdad province that traditionally serves as a Conduit from Kirk cook and Diyala into Baghdad itself. So there are still Pockets of Isis and there are still sleeper cells So Iraq is going to have to transform its security forces to focus on this. These are two entirely different problems for the last four years We knew exactly where Isis was they were in Mosul They were there. We knew knowing where Isis was was not a difficulty and he went over five years old knew where they were The problem was getting to them and getting them out Which was a very complex military problem going forward that that that problem is once again going to flip If you can find Isis, they're going to be very very easy to take care of It's going to be a police problem a couple guys with handguns will be able to go and physically arrest them because they're going to be hiding in Houses or where have you but the finding of them that's going to be the trick How do you find Isis members who are no longer part of an organized? Arms quasi uniform force and are now hiding dispersed among the population That's going to be the challenge for Iraqi security forces going forward. That's a police matter It's an internal intelligence matter And that's where the Iraqis are going to need to turn their attention to The army needs to be really refocused on the borders on repelling our military threats Let's face it Iraq lives in a tough neighborhood and while I'm not projecting that any Military is going to cross those borders and force tomorrow. Nonetheless. That's what armies need to prepare themselves to do For my u.s. Perspective we are talking about the u.s. Iraq relationship Engagement with the United States industrial base the United States military industrial base We of course believe it is very much in the interests of Iraq to have a strong relationship with the United States that is Reflected in its engagement with the military base and u.s. Policy needs to think about that u.s. Policy needs to think about what are exports If perhaps some export regimes need to be waived for Iraq and if some capabilities needed to be gifted to Iraq So that that helps then set them up to make purchases of u.s. Defense items more logical as Iraq's Economy continues to recover As they develop a non oil sector and continue to expand their oil sector And finally a u.s. Training mission in Iraq makes sense for everyone involved it's very clear to everyone that the Performance of the Iraqi army its ability to do these bridging operations the magnificent performance of the counter-terrorism service Occurred almost solely because of the u.s. Training high-end training that were given to these forces and both recouping Generating the counter-terrorism service which took horrendous casualties in Mosul in particular, but in all the earlier battles as well Should be a national priority for both countries I'll talk very quickly about domestic politics Iraq has a election coming up on May the 12th Coincidentally the same day that there's a JCPOA decision here in town about which I will not talk further unless asked There are a couple very interesting trends going into this election Now they're interesting trends. The question is how much will these trends be actualized? How much will they make a difference? How mature will these trends be? But there are at least two The first is the presence of cross-sectarian lists Both Prime Minister of bodies list about which the United States is quite enthusiastic the victory list And the a hadi al-amri's conquest list that with the PM use about which we are notably less excited Are running serious candidates in Sunni areas in Anbar in Nineveh in Nineveh Prime Minister of bodies list is led by the former Defense Minister Khaled Obadi Who is a fairly popular figure in Nineveh? It is not beyond the realm of the possible that the victory list could get two Three or even more seats based off the popularity of Khaled Obadi in Nineveh So this will very much change the dynamic of Iraqi politics when what we would normally call a Shia list has three candidates from Nineveh internal to it or two or three more candidates from Ambar internal to it and has a significant number of Sunni candidates elected by Sunni bases from Sunni provinces Internal to its list. We're not used to thinking about that We're used to Shia lists having to make deals with Sunni lists to get cross-sectarian government moving This could change the the dynamic The second thing we have are reform parties Baham Salih's democracy and justice party Iraqis for change led by dr. Bossett in Baghdad the Hikmah list led by the former head of iski And the new generation movement named being led by mr. Abdul Wahid Who owns a television network up in Kurdistan all these movements have remarkably similar platforms? They're all talking about youth. They're all talking about anti-corruption. They're all talking about private sector jobs They're all talking about federalism So They all have very interesting things that we want to hear the question is how well will any of these movements do? The last polls I saw saw all four of those movements pulling at 1% or less So I don't think we're going to see them as a significant force in this election What will be interesting though to look forward is what does this mean for 2022 and 2026? Will these movements Continue to be able to continue to push back against the big traditional parties that we're used to hearing from I'll stop there. There are lots of internal trends. I didn't talk about I did deliberately did not talk about the PMUs We can do that in the our discussion or the Q&A. I deliberately did not talk about the Kurds We can talk about that in greater detail But those are the big trends. I think we see moving forward in these two areas I'll turn over to Bartle to talk about some other sectors But in terms of the security situation of the domestic politics, I think those are the major muscle movements at present Thanks Doug, let me first say what a pleasure it is to be here I've long been a great fan of the new America Foundation Peter Bergen has been a inspiration to many people in my business for years and Doug's been a good friend since we started working on the Rand corporations Iraq study group 10 years ago, and we both started our stories in Iraq in 2004 So and I see other friends here very nice. Thank you all I'm gonna start by focusing on what kind of cooperation I think we should hope for from the US with Iraq on the non-military side First Educational and cultural programs There have been all sorts over the years. I believe that these of all are all On ice in different ways currently But you know there have been programs to send Iraqi Students to the United States for master or doctoral degrees at least 1,200 of those students have gone back to Iraq I've met numerous of them making contributions and so on. These are all very positive things The cultural side is Maybe a particular interest to me, but I think it can be fairly impactful. I interestingly Antiquities and Early cultural matters in Iraq I found to be something that can be very unifying because it predates Any current religious schisms and so on it's also a very good way for power like the United States with its Complicated record in Iraq to show real respect for thing for Iraq and for all for things that bring people together and in that sense I believe anyway a cultural heritage can be a unusually Efficient way to achieve some of the some of the things that are important to us On the economic side of things there is already there Numerous areas where the United States been very very helpful very impactful And we can continue to be so one of the great successes of these last few years And I don't mind repeating what Doug says about the remarkable Successive of Iraq over these years. I mean for those of us who who are devoted a lot of our lives to the country Something we're immensely proud of and reminds us I think one reason we vote we've been committed to this country since we first encountered it What an extraordinary thing Iraq is achieved over these last few years. I think really unique in the history of countries in its circumstances a third of its territory occupied by what became a fairly well-funded Group the oil price fell by 60 percent at the exact same time At a time went as now and is before the entire economy or the entire GDP really was was was driven by oil Certainly all government revenues During these years among other things many of which Doug's already mentioned The United States was very helpful to Iraq in terms of International lending for example, so with the IMF the World Bank and That kind of lending can not only provide really important liquidity to a government when it needs it But it's all usually also comes with strings attached in terms of economic liberalization and so on and Iraq where said I'm much of said I'm so old Leviathan Economy is is still in place and something we need to talk about so we were very helpful. We've been helpful there Just last year Iraq had two billion dollar bond issues Both of them Arranged by JP Morgan's city bank and Deutsche Bank The first of these had a US government guarantee the second didn't and and Iraq in dealing with the IMF the World Bank and other international funders has Improving over the years. I among other things. It's technical capacity. You know, there's a great deal of technical capacity in Iraq for Dealing with these these major international Institutions, but the United States has been very very helpful very catalytic again that that guarantee for the first big Eurobond last year Enormous influence at the IMF and so on In terms of the private sector, there's also a lot that the US can be doing The context in which we need to be doing the current context for that is really important to know It's driven by Prime Minister Abadi. He is one of the very very few International leaders of now and I think we have to Accept a man of global stature what he has helped his country to overcome with probably the bare minimum of Of of the inevitable Regrettable sides of the kind of war he just had to win But this is a man who I think would in any room full of global leaders is any man's equal and and a very important part of thing to remember about him is that he Has a personal background in the entrepreneurial private sector. He had a successful albeit small engineering business in London and he He comes to his work with that background he Has set up in the Prime Minister's office An economic reforms unit. They've they've got I know at least a couple cases of young Iraqis from world-class International financial institutions gone back to Baghdad. They're working on this much of what they do has to go through Parliament Parliament isn't really dealing with anything until the elections now, right? But these you know that is working hard to modernize the economy Which which direly needs it the To take one sector as an example the banking sector 90% of the banking sector is in the hands of a couple of enormous old Saddam era banks There's a handful of small Private sector banks, but they're you know They're they're not lending money for people to buy cars or buy houses or start businesses and so on all of that is in desperate need of Modernization liberalization all business banking go just about all business banking goes through something called the trade bank of Iraq So it and these two old huge Retail banks Should probably see parts of what they do privatized and so on Financial markets Reform is another big place where the US can help Iraq stock market Has a total capitalization about 13 billion dollars That's 5% of the Iraqi economy in Saudi Arabia next door with roughly the same number of people call it 30 million Probably once exploration has got more serious again in Iraq Probably same order of magnitude of oil wealth. It's the same number of people next door roughly the same amount of oil wealth The Saudi stock market represents 65% of GDP 5% versus 65% and that's not cherry-picking that would be something similar with other neighbors who didn't even run so I You know in these stock markets or places that the growing businesses go to raise money to grow more for the most part and That's a another great example of Modernization liberalization reform that needs to happen in Iraq where we can be very very helpful the economies dominated by oil and Still in a very old-fashioned way the Again right for reform in a few ways. Let me give one example Iraqis receive a monthly food basket the biggest It's not it's not literally a basket, but it is You know it is food and you know distributed it at 15 to 20,000 mostly small, you know corner Markets and shops around the country imagine the corruption that that involves imagine the Negative signal that sends to people about about their own worth and enterprise and relationship with the state Iraq will Need to if it's to truly to prosper and be free and happy will need to avoid the oil curse The best way in my opinion for Iraq to do that is is through individual oil accounts As is done in different ways in Norway or Alaska where people receive their share of the of their country's oil revenues and their leaders Ask for it back in the form of taxes agreed by people's elected representatives Ambitious perhaps, but I mean it would be an enormously impactful way to help Iraq Avoid the oil curse with all its familiar problems More general modernization just about everything you can think of land ownership starting companies closing down companies access to visas for international investors and Engineers and so on all of this needs to To be modernized and again the United States is in a unique position to help I Separate topic recon, which I'll hit very briefly so we can all talk about it together later, but a reconstruction and reintegration estimates for just the physical plant so to speak it needs to be The rebuilding that needs to happen after the war with Isis in the west and north Estimates in the range of $50 billion Recent reconstruction Conference in Kuwait a good 30 billion dollars was in terms of actual loans of giving of soft loans and so on but 30 billion dollars was pledged That conference is much more successful in my opinion than it was given credit for But still the work is enormous Most of this Reconstruction has to happen again in the west and north of the country happens also to be the most Mixed much of it anyway the most mixed and diverse part of the country and so it should be a major part of our focus anyway I I'll conclude with a quick little tour of the horizon of neighbors And and try to talk a little bit about regional diplomacy I Starting in the South Kuwait again just hosted this conference interesting That alone is interesting in the context of Iraq's history with Kuwait, of course And a very successful contrary to the usual much of the pessimism that it was created with These loans include three billion dollars from the US eggs in bank Saudi Arabia and the UAE Of Course so important here. I think Useful to start talking about Iraq's relations with Saudi and the UAE with a very big picture point What's obviously on their mind is Iran as it is with many people, right? Now a big picture point here, and I'll bring it up because it often arises when I talk to Saudis about Iraq Many will say oh well We'll write it off as if it were Lebanon and maybe Lebanon should not be written off But they will see it that way write it off to Iran It's it's inevitably gonna be Iran's and we can just try to make it perhaps spend a little time trying to make things as Less bad as possible But just consigning this to Iran I Clearly want major reason to think that way is that Iraq is 65 percent Shia Shia Shiaism is a religion shared between Iraq and Iran But a very important point is that Iraq is a greatly more promising a friend and ally and situation for the Saudis and their Gulf allies Then many of them understand in my opinion First of all, of course Iraqis are Arabs They're not Persians. They share that Arab ethnicity except for the Kurds in the north But for the bulk of Iraqis whether they're Sunnis or Shias, they're Arabs. They're not Persians the Iraq's Shias fought very hard for their Sunni minority government under the tyrannical Saddam against the Mullah regime in Iran The Iraqi brand of Shiaism is entirely different from communism the The rule of the religious leaders in Iran the traditional form of Shiaism Continues to be the dominant one in Iraq, which sees this Iranian brand Homenism the rule of the religious leaders as anathema So for these and other reasons there is real potential for Relations to be better between Iraq and Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, and we've seen this I mean the greatest firebrand radical rebel Shia cleric of Iraq Muqtad al-Sadr was in Visited The crown prince in Saudi Arabia Last year and within two weeks for the first time since Saddam's day the the land border with Saudi Arabia was open And I believe flights had started So there's real potential there the Saudis are building a billion dollar seventy thousand person soccer stadium in Baghdad the UAE is is Devoted a hundred million dollars or said it says they will to the rebuilding of the great Sunni mosque in Mussel, so we see a major rapprochement going on. I think probably for some of the reasons we just mentioned Going around the neighbors Jordan next The Jordanian port of Akaba is Is very important to Iraq's future? It's a place to for imports to come into Iraq from that by that Rather than from Iran right Iraqis don't want you know cheap Iranian cola and and and and other consumer things They want to be part like the rest of the world of the growing global economy The Jordanian are close ally Jordan The Jordanian port of Akaba is very natural place for some of that to come through Iraq Baghdad and Amman have announced a Oil pipeline from the southern Iraq to The port of Jordanian port of Akaba that would move a million barrels per day of Iraqi oil and 150,000 to 200,000 of those would then Stay in Jordan to be refined there There's also been significant security cooperation in the war against ISIS and and to some extent to do with the Syrian situation In Syria Iraq's been working very hard to avoid that quagmire, but I believe it was only last week that for the first time the Iraqi Air Force conducted Combat operations certainly of this kind outside of Iraqi border since I think 1991 Iraqi F-16s bombing ISIS in Syria with With the coordination, I believe between them Damascus and and the Americans side Turkey is an interesting one they too have an election coming up as we all know Turkey after its recent adventures in the north of Syria It doesn't have much room for movement there, but Pursuing the Kurds in Iraq as in or the pkk Turkish Kurdish rebels in Iraq as in the Syria is a big vote winner for Erdogan, I think we can probably expect Turkey to be more aggressive in the north of Iraq in the very far north of Iraq in the mountains You've probably been there Peter. I did what I was doing this stuff Where the pkk that again Turkish Kurdish rebels have their military bases inside Iraq in the north of Iraq in the mountains? Turkey now has has a fully fledged defense infrastructure building their own roads semi permanent camps Physically in Iraq. That's something we often forget For the moment Baghdad can live with it, but it's not a sustainable part of a sovereign country needless to say and then of course Iran I Short way to putting it is of course Iran wants as much influence as possible in Iraq from Iraq's point of view and also from ours That's generally malign The appeal to Iraq ease is much less That then many will understand partly for the reasons that we mentioned in the context of the Saudis and and the UAE But also for in terms of Iraqi domestic life and domestic politics The Mullahs Iran is just simply not an attractive example In in an electoral context trying to sell that or sell closeness to that is no vote winner for this very courageous and free people of Iraq But it's really important to point out and and Doug made sure we did it in this paper that Iraq will always be close to Iran. It's an enormous land border. You know, it's an enormous shared history In in Iranian culture itself, there's nothing to fear and so we've Also got a as much as it's almost job number one to counter Iran's malign or the Tehran's malign Influence in Iraq. It is also really important to understand that much of Iran in Iraq is natural and and to Be sure always to distinguish There and I'll leave it at that Peter. Thank you. Thank you very much So you paint a picture which I haven't was that was in Iraq in December and it's the first time I felt that You know rock had a better chance of success in Afghanistan Which Doug has been saying for many many years now part of that of course is oil of much better educated population And part of it is it's the violence. This is upsetting so You know what could go wrong and I mean let me throw out What happens when when sistani dies is there a kind of a sort of plan B for that and why and why is it important that he Kind of not die tomorrow. I think there's a a tendency There's a tendency on the part of Americans to personify Everything in Iraq, you know, we were all in with Chalabi, we were then all in with a la we we were then all in with Maliki We're now all in with a body and through this whole period. We've been all in with sistani Sistani has clearly been a Magnificent and stabilizing figure During this entire 14 year period You know when I first got to and we he's he's a very old man now when I first got to Iraq in 2004 we were asking the what happens when sistani dies next year question then and and here we are The bottom line though is you know, this is this is not the first rodeo. This is not the first time a grand Ayatollah has died in Najaf I Think it's unusual to have one grand ayatollah who has this level of prominence. I think usually You know sistani does have this position right now at least in Iraq as as the Shia Pope Whereas I think more traditionally Iraqi Shia's and tends to be more orthodox with you know power more diffused between Competing grand ayatollah, but the answer to what happens when sistani passes is the three remaining grand ayatollahs Will agree between themselves which of them steps up to have a place of prime of primacy And they will then start looking to the next generation for someone You know another one or two younger clerics to promote into their ranks to maintain Continuity They do this. They've been doing this for a long time And the idea that sistani is passing then means that Iran can parachute some candidate in to become You know just add water grand ayatollah has always been Ridiculous The idea that you know the I don't know who the next grand ayatollah is going to be but I know it's going to be one of those three The only thing that could lead to some interesting turmoil in Najaf were if the other three grand ayatollahs To pass before him Then and then sistani and this all happened in relatively rapid succession that could present a challenge To Najaf's ability to regenerate itself not that it wouldn't but there would be a Curiative of weakness there, but so long as there are three other grand ayatollahs sitting in Najaf And they are and they're they're not young men either So it's it's it is not impossible that all four of them could pass in a relatively short period of time That's really the only thing I think we need to be concerned. It's another potential wild wild card, which is so some kind of Rump part of ISIS going back into Syria merging perhaps with elements of al-Qaeda or not And then trying to basically do what they did in 2014, which has reinvaded Iraq Is that remotely possible? Well, I think part of this answer is the military answer and and what could go wrong that would be is Something else is you may have been about to ask Peter, but it's connected to that Now the United States could leave it as completely as it did militarily and diplomatically In in 2011 I don't think any of us think 2011 and the ISIS invasion would have happened if the if the United States and you know the 10th Mountain Division had been a few miles outside of any of these cities So I think it's very very unlikely now But the other in that sense but the other key thing to look at of course the rise of ISIS and its Success much of it imposed, but you know some of it welcomed by some in these parts of Iraq is that the Sunni population were profoundly disaffected. Yeah, and and to return to The days of Shia sectarian rule is another big thing. Yeah, it could go wrong We both of you are indicating that that seems pretty unlikely for the moment. I think it's deeply unlikely I think there's you know a huge part of the success of 2014 with ISIS was they did find in many places in the Sunni north some level of sympathy either are grudging sympathy or to enthusiastic sympathy and They were received among the population. They had places to hide. They had places people who cooperated with them I think today a Invasion of Ninoa and Ambar would find somewhere in the neighborhood of zero Acceptance they have now Iraq's Sunni population has now seen what it means to live under an Islamist system And I don't think they want any part of it ever again. They welcomed their liberation from that by a Largely Shia army coming from the south was welcomed They found the occupation of ISIS to be that distasteful. So the you mentioned the counterterrorism service It's a relatively inexpensive line item in the US budget the support we give to that clearly I mean so tell us what the what the what does the future look like for for the counterterrorism service kind of what you know What kind of level of support it needs I Think you probably should Doug because you know a lot more about there's some thank you I mean, this is this is a relatively as you say relatively easy. They need help from US special forces trainers to do a number of things to do assessment You know with any high-end military force figuring out who you should bring into the training and who you should not Is the first major step there needs to be some type of assessment Selection do you have the aptitude for this? Do you have the skills? Are you are you literate enough? Etc. So that's the first step and then We have a lot of experience training high-end special forces both our own and other countries This is not our first rodeo. This is not the only special forces unit. We've trained around the world And clearly we did okay with this group. They perform magnificently that said they're pretty much shattered And and may not have the capability to regenerate themselves internally I think once they are re-established it. We're not going to do this forever You know sooner or later you get these people back and then they have the ability to re-regenerate themselves internally but when you've been so decimated and When you're to have an internal capacity to replace 10% casualties You have to be able to do to replace 60% of your force You might need some outside help and we've demonstrated we know how to do this You know The head of the counter-terrorism service was denied a visa to the United States during the travel ban episode How did that go over in Iraq? Yeah, perversely that the travel ban issue in Iraq actually turned out okay I mean the people who were denied visas during that period were obviously quite upset But at the end of the day I think the Iraqis were so happy to be pulled off the list that they they saw that oh, yeah They accidentally batched us with these other countries But then cooler heads prevailed and people who understand the importance of this Relationship got involved and I think it reinforced to Iraq as a country that oh we do have friends in the United States And maybe there was this rash initial decision, but they pulled back from it and I think perversely Relations with Iraq are better for that decision having been pulled back Then had they not been on the list in the first place and on the sheer militias I mean there was great concern that there would be these kind of retaliatory sort of sectarian I mean that presumably there was a little bit of that but why well, how do you score where they are right now? And are they being pulled back into the Iraqi Conventional Army? Peter I'll take the first part of that at least I Think that the the key point about the militias is a big picture one And I really must credit this to Doug and I think it's profound that The solution there is for them not to be needed by the communities That give them support yeah, and that it's it's it's security and then be on that prosperity but in but first security at home that Makes these people unnecessary and irrelevant and that's probably our ultimate solution there now Where are things currently? and so a Certain amount of these militia members have have been a budgeted for in the most recent budget So there we have okay the Iraqi state is now, you know Subsidizing these guys or is it trying to bring them into the fold then there's a question another argument How much how much are these budgets right so so so yes, they were budgeted for but I forget the numbers But as I recall this was a number So low from the point of view of most of the militias. We should also remember their Christian and Sunni militias, too I when we were writing this I Best numbers I come out. They were maybe 60 70 Not even 70 maybe 60% Shia that very significant minority of these militias are Christian Yazidi Shia Turkmen Turkmen But at any rate that you know, even when a budget is made that kind of legitimizes them that itself may be a Budget that from the point of view of the big Shia militias doesn't give them nearly enough money to recognize their needs and their Importance and so on so I think that it gets Mostly through improving security at home, but also these ways gets whittled away I mean, it's very very hard as we argue in the paper to make this go away immediately You know, I don't think it's a terrible stain on a body's record that he didn't just Pretend they weren't there or try militarily to disband them disarm them A couple thoughts I mean first of all We need to remember that in some ways this is a problem the United States created, you know in the spring of 2014 when Iraq was in its moment of need and Isis was sweeping through Mosul towards Baghdad The Iranians decided this would be a really good time to bank political capital They got into Iraq and helped organize the PMU's The United States decided this would be a good time to spend political capital and Notably said we're not helping you until you get rid of Nuri al-Maliki and that took about three months, so we made a policy decision to leave the ground to the Iranians and the PMU's for three months and Iraqi voters are gonna remember this And this is why there's a hot shit, you know conquest party right now They have a lot of street cred They are the ones who are out there first and who Kept Isis from coming to Baghdad And I don't think people are gonna forget that and that in this electoral cycle that said I think the PMU are definitely at their They're at their apogee, you know, there's there's as each day goes along the need for the PMU diminishes and Each day that goes by people's memories of the events of 2014 are going to fade So do I think the PMU list is going to do well in this election? Yes, I do Do I think that this is a one-time legacy event that doesn't have long tails that there's a very Small chance of the what he's called the Hesbolization of Iraq. Yes, I think but I think these are very low probability events that the PMU have a long tail I think the PMU will be Integrated into the Iraqi security forces, but the analogy I use and this will take me just a minute is One of when the United States was forced to put a National Guard division headquarters in Iraq in 2005 and of course big army was very very concerned about this So but politically it was important to send a National Guard headquarters to Baghdad So it went and it went with its commander We put an active-duty deputy commander. I believe we put an active-duty chief of staff We put an active-duty deputy everything And we attached a couple active-duty brigades to it. So by the time it got there It was really only about 40% National Guard and trusted agents of the big institution were there. I Think you're gonna see something very similar happened with the PMU's the PMU's are now a Quantified part of the national security structure reporting straight to the prime minister We start looking at the requirements You know commanders are now going to have to have certain military educational requirements Well a number of the PMU commanders can't read so they're not gonna make this first cut So I think we're going to see The larger Iraqi security Institution absorbed the PMU's and turn them into something quite different over time It's not gonna happen this year or it's not gonna happen in total this year It will happen by attrition little bit by little bit But I suspect again by the next electoral cycle by 2022 the PMU's are going to be thoroughly neutered and Be largely integrated into an Iraqi security force and very very little resemblance to their prior iteration I think we need to remember Iraq has done this before You know I've been doing Iraq long enough to remember when the counterterrorism force was not the Golden Brigade It was the dirty brigade It was the brigade that went out and conducted activities on behalf of Nouriel Maliki That was seen as the the persecutors the ones who were putting down the Sunni demonstrations No one remembers that anyone no one talks about that That is a deep part of their history and of course a lot of the people who were involved in that are no longer part of the CTS. I Suspect strongly suspect we will see a similar evolution with the PMU's So when a body came into power he was sort of regarded I think a sort of weak and factless and sort of a caretaker. I mean the situation is Different today right because the Kurds scored this big own goal. He defeated ISIS You're saying the PMU's are kind of you know gonna be part of the regular force. So when he goes into this election He's going in with some very good cards, right? big time You know, he's running on The two big victories the victory over ISIS and this seizing back of almost all of the disputed territories with the Kurds almost bloodlessly Including Kirkuk and all of its oil. He's running on a third thing as well, which is a More modern approach to the economy He's and he's running hard. I mean he's been he's there there campaigning in every single province I think for the first time at this scale for a major she had dominated list for example in all three of the Kurdish provinces and Usually these big lists do attract a few members of the other sect And so on but as Doug says, you know in in in in Innova province just one example the Sunni component of a buddy's party or list in this Iraq's case is You know, it's a serious local heavyweight so he's But I think probably the greatest move after after ISIS was to secure his nationalist flank by reclaiming these disputed territories with the Kurds a Body really has become a nationalist leader. We saw a brand new poll come out yesterday It shows a body has 60 percent approval overall in the country. What's interesting is when you dig down His 60 percent approval He has a 60 percent approval among his base the Shia base and Baghdad in south He actually has a 70 percent approval rating in the formerly Concord territories. So in the Sunni areas He has a 70 percent approval rating and they actually has a 50 percent approval rating in the Kurdish north So he's more popular in Ambar than he is in Karbala perversely So it this could be a very very different election now again I want to copy it is no by no means sure that a body wins this election. I do think that's the smart money But it's by no means certain that he wins this election Mike only my one of my major concerns going forward into this election is we do seem to have a narrative here in Washington That if a body doesn't win or perhaps a lousy although that's never going to happen That this this means the Iranians have won and I think we need to be very cautious about that kind of narrative There are all kinds of possibilities of people who could emerge again I think the smart money is still in a body getting a second term But if that doesn't happen that doesn't mean that somehow the Iranian that Tehran is now taken over Baghdad But since his parliamentary system, there's going to be he's unlikely to just win the election anyway, right? There's going to be there's going to be some horse trading and some deals. Who is there? There are so many parties that even if a body has a wildly Successful election. He can't get more than 25 percent of the seats and that would be wildly successful Somewhere in the 17 to 20 percent range is far more. So who would he ally with to kind of become prime minister? He would ally with nationalists Sunnis Perhaps led by some of them anyway led by the former prime minister who Doug just Mentioned allowee. I think he'd quite likely ally with the Al-Sadr movement really nationalist Shias But it's significant demographic on the whole the usually the biggest party in the poor urban slums of Baghdad in the south and Reform-minded Kurds who could do very well one thing we haven't talked about it's just how challenging things are in Kurdistan How unhappy people are there? How During the Arab Spring when in in the rest of Iraq there were Demonstrations for more water and electricity, you know in in in Kurdistan There were you know really really bloody scenes and those two Capitals may have could have fallen so reform-minded Kurds quite possibly Out of I think it's 279 seats in I think it's 329, but keep it anyway I'm sorry Yes, yeah, that's where I was getting at but but but but but but I Probably wrong in the number of seats But it's a magic number from for a body and his say to by the way, sorry another major faction Who've been receiving ideas. I understand a fair amount of Financial support from Tehran, but who could still alternately side with a body when the dust settles after the election all the counting is done the Hakim faction we could have maybe perhaps a hundred out of this 300 odd as his core Might be the round number for whether or not he can Form a relatively strong ministry Great, we'll throw it over the questions. Can you have a question? Can you wait for the mic and identify yourself this gentleman here? Thank you very much Alexander Kravitz from Insight. Thank you for a great panel I have maybe two questions one on the on the PM use. I wonder I kind of agree with what you were the scenario You're painting forward About how they will be eventually taken in but I wonder if you could Give us an idea. Maybe drilling down a bit Where are they numbers? I mean they have been taken in you know, there's a budget and And you were talking about the casualty rates of the CTS. I mean they they also had, you know Casualty rates, so they must have lost. I mean are they recruiting again if they were, you know, I don't know no The number they were a hundred thousand in you know, 2016. What are their numbers now? Do they continue to recruit? That's the first question the second question on the banking sector There's something like what 60 or 70? Banks that are really more like trading houses, right because they have a right to the auction What needs to happen? For those banks to actually become real banks. I mean, I think it's you know, there's a question of regulatory But also the entrepreneurial zest I mean if you're if you have one of those golden license you you essentially are printing gold, you know So I wonder if you could comment on that. Great. Would you like me to start with that one? Okay great first? Thanks. Great question. So important. I Have to say I've seen this in other emerging markets around the world that Local banks get so find that this local business the local treasury build business of just Landing money to the government of these auctions and return for these nice rate these nice returns It's just such easy money That that they get quite sort of fat and happy doing that Partly because they have this sort of privileged position of being Only one sort of participate in these things and so on right so so it's something makes them Focus more on real banking activities when when that's reform Much of it is Regulation But also the position of these huge state behemoths. So, you know, so many people in Iraq get their salaries paid To their accounts at these major state-owned banks and so on that that they're and and their people are used to it and and It's not very profitable for it's difficult takes a lot of investment and so on for the For other banks to capture that retail market And then on the side of business banking this trade Bank of Iraq, which is really quite a good institution I mean, it's it's it's well-run. It's not corrupt At least it wasn't when I knew it well for for years and years and the last few years I'm sure it's still as good as it ever was. I hope But you know, it was a it was a really it is a good organization But you know, it has it has such an advantageous position from this Government guarantee that it gets in so on that it squeezes out just like the the big retail banks do it It squeezes out The others so I think maybe one of the biggest parts of reform of this banking center sector Which is critical piece of reform in the bigger picture is to privatize at least parts of Both trade Bank of Iraq on the business banking side and the two giants on the retail side Yes, good great question about the PMU's. Yes, they took enormous casualties As should expected, you know, we've we've we've seen this before You know, we're not too far from where the first battle of Manassas occurred where you know Union volunteers also went out there and displayed military incompetence and died in huge numbers That the PMU's this is an identical thing, you know Your nation all of a sudden needs to go from a relatively small professional army to needing tens of thousands more people people responded they rushed to the front they pushed out north of Baghdad and They knew nothing and they died in waves So yes, the the casualties of the PMU's in particular both in the defense of Baghdad And as they pushed up into to crit were very very high Yes, good great question about their recruiting now I'm not sure I know the answer to that of whether they're actively trying to maintain their status or now that pieces of them are regularized How is recruiting for that happening and what's happening outside that I honestly don't know the answer to that That's a great question you know if the president decides to effectively pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement on the same day of this election. What does that mean for Iraq? Down the road and what what are Iran's likely reactions particularly related to Iraq, but maybe even also regionally You know Iraq has been quite clear in stating that it recognizes that the United States and Iran Aren't particularly friend with each other and it would greatly appreciate its two friends finding a place other than Iraq For it to resolve its disputes I mean a body has essentially said that in words, you know pretty pretty identical to that Now whether the Iranians and for that matter us will be willing to acknowledge their request to have this elsewhere I think that's just remarkably unclear This is one of the things that concerns me about Iraq I think Iraq and Iraqis are in a very good place to take care of their Problems yeah, if they start all of a sudden having problems Exported to them from us from the Syrians from the Iranians from the Turks That may give them problems. They are simply not equipped to handle at this point But this gentleman here Yeah, I can't record TV producer Isn't there widespread sentiment in Iraq Demanding the withdrawal of US troops I think a couple of militia units has said they'll kill any American soldiers who land in Iraq The Iraqi Parliament recently insisted that the government give them a timetable for US withdrawal Is there any sign that we're Going to leave Iraq soon or ever Especially as I believe the Pentagon has stopped listing how many troops we have in Iraq on their website I think the Pentagon stopped listing how many troops we have everywhere on their website I don't think that's an Iraq specific issue No, there's not huge demand in Iraq. There are some very Vocal minorities who are quite clear that they would like the American Presence to cease and desist I'm not sure but I'm quite confident that does not represent the mainstream position when you talk to Representatives of all the parties in Baghdad Even some you would suspect would be less friendly about it even the most hostile parties won a two or three year program To assist with border police and internal policing and then have it reassessed while the friendlier party is just want something very long-term I Strongly suspect that there will be a US presence in Iraq for many years unless the US Unilaterally decides to leave. I don't think that's going to happen The US presence in Iraq properly tailored Can be in everyone's interest and cross no one's red lines The US population is very very interested in having no more US soldiers die in Iraq It's very clear the US population has had enough of it Conversely the Iraqi population has had quite enough of seeing US soldiers on its streets They they don't want to live through that again Well, fortunately if you just put US soldiers in the middle of Iraqi military bases where the only people they encounter Iraqi soldiers and police as they're training them. Well, then their chances of getting killed, you know, unless they you know trip and fall in a puddle Are is a number approaching zero and their chance to interact with the Iraqi population and be offensive to them Is also a number approaching zero so properly tailored. I think this presence can be there It can last a long time Perfectly basing US troops in Baghdad isn't that much more expensive than basing them at Fort Bragg or Fort Hood So monetarily it really doesn't cost us very much And can pay a lot of dividends for Iraqi society and gives you Anytime you're deployed. That's also good for US troops increasing their capability. This gentleman here. This gentleman here. This gentleman here Thank you. My name is Wright. I'm with the Inspector General's office at DoD. Could you Hopefully these will be two quick questions first Could you comment on what the trend of insurgency in Iraq looks like is it going to continue going down? Is it going to maintain some kind of naxalite like slow burn or something else and also what happens? If Hadi al-Miri somehow comes out on top and becomes the next prime minister You want to take Hadi al-Miri? Sure, I because I think I can be really brief I think it's I think it's so unlikely as to be I Think it's too unlikely really frankly to spend much time on but what happens if I would be a I Think we would see a lot more of this insurgency because I think we'd see a lot more fear and In the Sunni parts of the country What I think in general since I think we agree that's not going to happen I think this is I think the insurgency is going to continue to decrease One the Iraqis are getting better at this internal policing. You can just have to read the reports They almost daily are pulling out the sleeper cells and finding you know People who are from Mosul who are hiding so I think it's going to be stamped out but it really comes back to what I was talking about earlier the lack of tolerance among the Sunni population and Let's be candid in the 2010 to 2013 period was quite willing at least in places to hide these insurgents to give them Sanctuary to aid in a bet That sentiment is for the most part gone and even the most rejectionist pieces of the Sunni population the most rejectionist trends The former Association of Muslim scholars are now inside the process have accepted the legitimacy of this regime have accepted the legitimacy of elections So I think the the smart money Again absent the Iranians or the Syrians or the Turks coming in to do something else Extraneous variables could change this but internal to Iraq itself the trend is I think clearly downward And there's no calls as there have been in some elections for Sunnis to boycott There have been calls for everyone to boycott, but I think almost everyone is is not paying attention to those calls My name is Mike Alvin. I'm an independent researcher. Thank you very much for an informative panel My question is about antiquities and culture that you began your remarks with What is the current status of Iraq American? Cooperation in these areas and what what do you foresee? developing in and the next couple of years will be be seeing more More more students coming to American universities will visas be loosened up That sort of thing Archaeological days for example Great great so there is a quite a few of the Museum American museums that have been historically very involved in Iraq for example the Metropolitan Museum in New York And a handful of others in Chicago and Philadelphia That have been digging in Iraq since the 20s and 30s are starting to go back we have a Related thing a repatriation to our friends in Iraq tomorrow at the ambassador's house of some antiquities I'm sit on the visiting committee at the Ancient Near Eastern Department that met in New York and You know we're sending people back today we are sending people to support the culture ministry in training some of their professionals in logging and documenting artifacts and so on just some small examples so I'd say you know it's starting again, and it's it's really good news Always room for more, but of course it's expensive I think Restarting educational exchange is probably the most important thing we need to work on we have sitting here in the front row To hair who Madi who ran Iraq's higher education program the exact name of which is in the paper But I can't recite up the top of my head at the moment So you know thousands of Iraqi students have come here for graduate degrees Most of them have returned they have a Astronomical like 99% plus return rate Which for those of you who know the problem of visa overstays in the United States is quite an achievement So almost everyone on this program who has completed it has gone back That said since 2015 Because of both I'm sure Iraq's monetary situation and their political attention being elsewhere No new students have come that's something we need to jump start as soon as possible And I think there's room for multi there should not be one program sending Iraqi students here There should be 10 or 20, you know, I would like to see Universities throughout the country it's reaching out for one, you know if every You know if every Ivy League University grab one or two and you know every land grant University grab one Well pretty soon we'd have hundreds of Iraqi studying here again And I think that's what we need this this interlinking of the two countries I think we need a similar renaissance with our military school system There should be far far more Iraqi students studying in our you know captains in our advanced courses majors at Leavenworth Kernels in our war colleges to really build these military ties since There's no there's no Iraqi senior our military officers don't know tons of Americans at this point You know, they'd have lots of friends anywhere. They came here to further cement those ties makes a lot of sense Thank you, I'm Will Embrie from Dinecorp International Could you talk a little bit more about the reconstruction conference and the money out of it? It's my I don't really understand it To me it seems very soft. It's almost all loans or guarantees There's no grant money in it I Can't see the and some of us tied to countries specific countries and specific products I can't quite see the link between those Commitments and actually getting the work done that needs to be done to do the the tough, you know reconstructions Stabilization work none of which is going to actually produce any money And I also don't see how Iraq's ever going to pay 30, you know, billion dollars back Again, if they ever do get that that amount of money, can we just add my read and bundle those questions together just in the interest of time Sorry, Peter. Did you know we're gonna take one more question and then we'll answer both. Yeah Hi, Matt Reed was foreign reports and New America. My question is about Kurdistan Will we see reconciliation between Baghdad and Erbil before the end of the year? And then also will any new deal be more durable than the last year we've seen So the conference in Kurdistan, which do you want? Why don't you take Kurdistan? Here's Iraq's fundamental problem right now with the north you have the Kurdistan regional government it is it is a constitutionally embodied Entity that you know is written into there It's legitimately cannot be disputed on the other hand it has so mismanaged And so taken advantage of its people over the last five years and it is now so Deeply in debt, I mean you wonder how federal Iraq's going to pay back 30 billion the Karajee owes at least has conceded It owes 22 billion and I suspect the number is far far greater So you have this sub-state entity that is now in a place where it can no longer be a Faithful steward for its people, you know if Baghdad in a fit of magnanimity tomorrow decides to just send a hunt Send a billion dollars to the KRG That money's gonna go to Dana gas or the Turks or Rossnet to one of their creditors It's not gonna go to pay salaries let alone do you know try to build projects and regenerate their economy So Baghdad's in a really that there's now a knot here that I don't know how to untie With the KRG simply being so deeply in debt that it's hard to see a way out of that and yet at the same time It is a constitutional entity So it's not as if Baghdad can legitimately just reabsorb the three provinces although you have heard talk of that But Baghdad just giving money straight to the three provinces and letting them work out their deals and letting her or Beal Not as a province, but as a capital of the northern three provinces die on the vine. I don't know What you have Baghdad do Especially given that if you cut a special deal with or Beal on oil prices You always have to be looking at the precedent you're setting in the south in Basra And that of course has always been the issue for Federal Iraq when dealing with the Kurds They want a special deal where they get their fair share of Basra oil Plus half or more of their own and that's just not a deal that Baghdad can afford to give to or Beal Because it can never give that deal to Basra. So my bottom line is I don't know how we get out of this situation in the north quickly there on on Kurdistan as a federal region, okay, so the Constitution mentions federalism dozens and dozens of times the way that you form a federal unit or region is by a Supermajority vote. I can't remember What the level is sixty or percent two-thirds in more than one region can can vote to two It's sorry more than one province can then vote to form a new federal region or one problem Single problems and make a federal region. I think they can't but anyway keep going right, okay? So it would be somewhere in the in the reversing of that There is nothing in the fundamental formation of the state that said that this is a separate entity So the undoing would be an undoing of something that is you post formation I don't know what the undoing is but that's less of a project than than something that was separate from the beginning The but at the same time I think what this is shows us is the rest of Iraq goes better, right and that This is another example of the sort of strengthening of the Iraqi state and how how Doug and I came together Last year to write this piece because we'd seen in so many ways that this sense of a nation And it's one of the first words in our first sentence that call, you know National sentiment right in all sorts of ways is that an all-time high? Remarkable for a country with all those challenges in terms of having one national sentiment In you know in terms of Kuwait foreign reconstruction money and so on I mean ultimately first of all any of these conferences It's a promise. It's a promise of a gift or if it's a promise of a guarantee Well a cheap guarantee is of course a gift is it worse than a full gift in many ways. It's better all things people can disagree on but What we probably all agree is that Iraq's reconstruction is ultimately its own responsibility and That there is no shortage of money, right? This is this is a immensely wealth country wealthy and its people wealthy in its natural resources and it's you know, it's a it's stability and And a more modern Liberal economy that are going to give Iraq ease the wealth That they deserve and that they're gonna need for all this reconstruction I mean ultimately, you know, that's where it all really has to come from. There is no shortage of that money and As I said earlier on there's a list of very Of things that we can do that take a great deal of work, but that can really help this important ally Let me let me add just very brief because I was I was in Kuwait I think the thing that made it confusing is everyone assisted on calling it an investment conference And that's not really what it was the Iraqis wanted access to international capital so they can borrow money to build infrastructure to Get themselves out of an economic hole. They're gonna do in 2019 what the United States did in 2008 find shovel ready projects Borrow the money to get people working the issue was calling an investment conference And as I've you know, as I've learned the hard way Iraqis just mean different things by investment that then Westerners do You know and God knows I know Iraqis, but thanks to their bath as history. They're essentially communists and They you know, they do not think about investment They do not think of investment the way we think of investment. That is a generation away for Iraq So the way to look at Kuwait is did it give them a line of credit for them to Infrastructure projects moving in Iraq to get their economy jump-started get people back to work and the answer to that is yes And therefore it was a successful content for them well, we want to thank Bartle and Doug for a tour de force and Thank you for the paper as well