 Okay, testing one two just getting up and running. I hope everyone's doing well Just gonna set up a few of my screens and then we'll get going Bank of England coming up. So Just bear with me Just want to be able to have the chat box visible. So if anyone has any questions, obviously I could pick them up as we go The intention here is to be on for about a half an hour session We'll see how we go And obviously happy to take questions if you guys See fit, but thank you very much for joining me so yeah Emilia and Harry good morning Late morning, I should say Yeah Bank of England coming up momentarily and so we'll just give it a minute or so then we'll do a bit of a rundown Being some interesting news actually has just come out in regards to China ever grand Not sure how closely you guys are all tracking the news at the moment But the Wall Street Journal just came out with an exclusive article Just about half an hour ago or so and it said that the headline Journal exclusive China makes preparations for ever grand demise Beijing reluctant to bail out the country's most heavily indebted property developer Asking local offices across the country to prepare for a possible Storm we did actually see Equity index futures just come off their best levels at around a similar timings To around when the article came out you can see a bit more of extension on that wick here around 11 o'clock on the 30 minute bar We've just moved a little lower still positive though in terms of the overall Index futures both Dax up 138 and US futures will be at well off their best levels still up in positive territory For the time being one thing I would say whenever you get these types of quite sensational headlines In you know, what is a very market sensitive story? Certainly this week in ever grand is just go on the article And although this is locked because you have to have you a paid member for the journal There are a couple of things here that you can see the officials characterized actions Being ordered is getting ready for a possible storm hence. It was in the subtitle in the headline. They said that Local government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute Should ever grand fail to meet its affairs in an orderly fashion. So in actuality, I think that This is sometimes what can catch people out from a headline trading perspective in an intraday Environment because you see a headline like that and obviously it sounds disastrous The market generally reacts quite quickly Because this is an unscheduled piece of information that comes out it circulates You get a bit of a move, but actually when you read a little bit between the lines I don't know. It doesn't sound quite as sensational as perhaps the headline You know in the end it is saying they'll step in they're just not willing to step in unless it's absolutely necessary to do So I don't think that's too untoward to be fair. So Nonetheless, I think equities obviously were Fairly supported yesterday US indices finished up pretty much across the board about 1% margin Plus we kind of pushed higher through the European morning as well So a little bit of just profit-taking for more elevated levels. I don't think it's too unexpected Just gonna get the S&P chart here and have a look from a technical perspective. Sorry it keeps Pulling full screen. Let me just put it here so Just having a quick look the the peak of kind of the recovery and price that we've had here It's been quite nice my technical perspective. You can see here back to last week Tuesday Wednesday Area and that was a kind of key inflection point Which then when we broke people started to kind of really ratchet up the pressure on the evergrande story was this sell-off here Seen late Friday Going into Monday session and a recovery since then and we've had some nice respect yesterday initially when We came to the FMC volatility of the 6182 fib from the sell-off from last week to the low of this week You can see there breaking above that this morning just gave a bit of momentum to the futures market And then as I said peaked out that 42 44 25 and a quarter Which was those previous areas there or support resistance that you can see so markets just backing off a little But in context obviously, you know from where we were the night before combination of the Fed combination of the PBOC stepping in with a large liquidity injection combination of that with then Some restructuring talks on going in China at the moment as I covered in the briefing has just kept things relatively buoyant So a bit of a pullback here. I think that journal article perhaps worse just keeping in mind when the US starts to come into market More in volume later But to be honest the early birds in the US were already being so just a reason to take some profit I think on some of those short-term gains that have been seen in equity space But let's get to it. Let's talk about the matter at hand, which is 10 minutes 9 minutes in fact to go until we get the Bank of England I can see Certainly there's some questions and stuff like that what I'm going to do I'll do a briefing and kind of flying solo on this So I'll do my best to just tackle that and then I'll pick up some questions at the end So just to kind of go back to what are we looking at here and a few things to think about So in terms of actual policy for the Bank of England, we're absolutely not expecting any change here so in regards to the interest rate and the 895 billion QE program the asset purchase facility that's going to be unchanged The things to keep an eye out for that are quite unique to the Bank of England the courses Not only do we get the rate QE announcement the statement. We also get the vote split Remember we're now fully stocked back to a normal regular number on these Officials so you can see nine members here and the two newbies being Catherine man and Hugh pill Man much more of a dovish disposition pill not quite so much But nowhere near as hawkish as say a saunders last time on the vote split We obviously saw a dissent from saunders who wanted to stop QE straight away Anticipation is that he will remain of that view and so from the split perspective 81 would be expected seven two Two being someone to join perhaps Ramsden here on the right-hand side to join saunders would temporarily cause probably a short-term pop in Sturning currency perhaps likewise in yields, but it really comes down then to the next part of the release Which is the minutes so there's no there's no forecasts. This isn't like the Fed the FMC last night where we get projections of Dot plots and things like that The version of that from the monetary policy report from the UK is not coming till the end of the towards the end of the Year in November so all we're looking out for then is minutes Descriptions of how they see the economy playing out at the moment and on that point as a couple of different things generally growth Expectations have been pulled back a little bit in the UK and when they publish their forecast back in their monetary policy report in August Essentially, they're anticipating two point nine percent expansion in Q3 But the latest Economist surveyed from banks on Wall Street was suggest that's probably been moderated down to something more in the region of two point five percent So growth looking a little weaker than previously anticipated and obviously that would go against more hawkish calls for a media action on QE On the flip side inflation has outperformed. It's coming little hotter little faster than people have thought And obviously well above the bank of England's 2% target. We're now tracking around 3.2% in the month of August However, that in itself somewhat tamed by two things one the fact that the bank of England have already said they foresee inflation going to 4% So they've created themselves a bit of wiggle room here and then secondly the fact that they see then Inflation pressures decreasing into 2022 and 2023 Reflective of those kind of transitory nature of where the pressures are coming from a few other points as well that will likely mean that the Bank of England Remains possibly a little bit more sitting on their hands for the time being And it's kind of three things to be aware of one is there's still an awful lot of people some 1.6 million said to be still on furlough And obviously that's coming up for expiration to a 20 pound lift uplift in universal credit Which is basically welfare benefits will end in a couple of weeks and then three we've already heard before national insurance changes So paid for by employees and firms that's going to be hiked From next April so for these reasons as well. These could be somewhat impactful on the strength of the recovery that we could see going forward a couple of notes here from analysts ING that are probably worth covering They said the effect of what I've just mentioned those three points is likely to be something of a cost of living spike This winter particularly for lower earners who will be disproportionately affected of course by universal credit cuts We're also going to be facing because of the gas crisis at the moment ever-increasing energy goods bills and those items make up a large share of the spending of those Who are on the kind of lower threshold of earnings capacity? And so hence the reason why probably it's too soon to be talking really too much of a hawkish game at this point in time The one thing that I have read a couple of people have mentioned. I'm just going to quickly bring it up I was just sharing a Tweet from a contact of of ours Viraj Patel who is a macro strategist You know former Bank of England Barclays ING You know, he's he had a great chat with some of our analysts over the summer But he made a good point as well and I think to be aware of subsequent potential market reaction He said he struggles to see how the market gets even more hawkish than what's priced even after this week's volatility Market has priced in more tightening So surely risk rewards suggest fading the move betting that things go wrong with the UK recovery So just to make sense of that for market funk reaction function What he's basically saying is markets despite all of the come somewhat reasons That I've presented here that would mean the Bank of England should just hold off for the time being on any idea of accelerated timing of tightening of policy markets still are priced fairly aggressively for rate hikes to come next year in the UK and so the risk is of Betting what he's saying is fading that the better trade from a risk-reward perspective is fading that move He's talking more medium term of course In that the recovery hits a couple of stumbles Before it really gets underway that would warrant a rate hike and so that the markets a little head of itself so Yeah, if that is the case then certainly from a reaction point of view just having a look at cable We've got three minutes to go. I'll have the score come when it comes out, but We could then see sterling come under a bit of pressure if that type of situation does materialize which talks a little bit more about Kind of continuity not not really too much comment about reacting to inflation It's still more transitory some some concerns about wanting to just see how COVID plays out how Growth expectations materialize given that they've weakened slightly those other threats to The economic recovery from universal credit welfare benefit changes Ni tax increases and the end of furlough So yeah, let's let's see what gets said from a technical perspective. This is cable looking on a 30-minute candlestick so Just having a look at the general range that we've been trading here Over the course of the last week. There's obviously quite a clear upside area of resistance here at around 136 92 I'm looking at sterling futures chart here The low down here any pop and break above that level and something the more hawkish if that does materialize Probably be marking up these levels here Which would be the high and low that you can see from Friday and Monday, and then Friday Monday again on these reference points Okay, I'm gonna put the score con and I'll let the guys cover it It's gonna refresh and Then yeah, I'll take some questions after let's get everything ready So I got the cable chart here cable futures, I'll just keep that up as a large chart at the moment No vote split I'll then bring you the QE decision and vote split There's often the sometimes a bit of delay in bringing it the votes on QE I'll then the cover any person in comments. What's keeping eye on events at least CBRT without race expected unchanged at 19% Yeah, just let me know whether you can hear that the score cokey. It's gonna be why in the chat if possible 10 seconds That's unchanged at zero spot 1% as expected and the QE. That's also been Held at 895 position. That was a unanimous decision And be we says back start have fries down the expectations for the level of UK GDP in 2021 By around 1% since the August report Sleep by inflation is expected to rise a further in the attempt a slightly before percent in 2021 and largely to your developments in energy and goods The decision for the QE was 7 2 so 7 2 on gilts was expected 8 1 that with the Saunders to be the loan Descenders kind of look into this to see who else descended on this vote Do you know this is not yet been published on the Bank of England website? We're still trying to get this report up So it's Ramston and Saunders who proposed a cut in the remit that cut To 875 sorry from 875 to 840 so besides shadow of cuts and what Saunders proposed last time All right, I'm just gonna turn them down for a moment. So yeah, the vote split Perhaps a little bit more on the hawkish side because Ramston Has joined Saunders so the vote split on the QE decision was 7 2 on the rate 9 nil as you would expect Some of the other comments of note the Bank of England sees inflation set to rise slightly above 4% this year And so yeah pretty pretty tame move If you're actually looking at this because there's nothing really here That's a great deal surprising again. They're a long way off making any definitive changes here in regards to QE A little bit more perhaps then seeing upside near-term inflationary pressures But that's kind of reflective of what other central banks have done similar to like the Fed last night in the FMC projections But they see them still being transitory and coming back thereafter. So Not too much reaction here to be honest that level had a brief threat on that previous Double top from the last two days trading session, but it's failed to really move on from there And we're just trading exactly where we were prior to this coming out. So No shocks or surprising. I'm afraid to bring you anything more exciting Ramston and Saunders proposed to cut to 860 billion and The current amount is 895 billion is a reference Bank of England said considerable uncertainties remain most cost pressures indicate remain Elevated some development strength in case for modest tightening. Yeah, it's all fairly uninteresting to be honest I'll keep it running. I'll keep the feed running for Just a short while another five minutes or so Yeah, the Bank of England said cost global cost pressures likely to prove transitory So so yeah, I wouldn't say this is necessarily Hawkeish perhaps with the vote split that one's moving over but all in all The actual comments that themselves there's nothing really too committed. Everything's kind of Pretty much in line with what you and anticipate Some developments for strengthening case to modest tightening short Generally things are improving the tightening is coming in the future, but inflation still remains transitory Inflation set to be above 4% a little bit this year again tiny bit but Again, it's because it's Caveated by being transitory. It's hadn't had much same sustained reaction to the upside for sterling Yeah, they're kind of saying that tightening is necessary, but caveated by uncertainty still remaining the actual quote from their Reports intervening period appear to be strengthened the case In regards to tightening although considerable uncertainties remain so Yeah, it's any hawkish signals down the near term inflation or the vote split counteracted by Some of that general more dovish relative to market expectations is probably the way to To explain it So yeah, otherwise if anyone's got any questions, I'm not going to talk about the Bank of England anymore because nothing more to say Such as these events not all of them are a firework show. I'm afraid Just as a reminder As they always do I know most of you who regularly tune in to us We'll already know but feel free to follow me on Twitter For any kind of snippets I put out my morning call and things just during the day bank commentary and so on I also tweet Kind of aggregate the main articles to be aware of from the Amplify me official account So that Twitter handle is there as well. Definitely worth following that I'm tweeting maybe anything from 10 to 15 articles of relevance a day. Keep you informed and up to speed If you're watching this and you're not subscribed to YouTube channel, please do lots of fresh content coming out on a daily basis And then yeah, don't forget to check out amplify me.com Particularly if you're a student so again if you weren't joining us last night very quick overview This is our new mission as a company is to make then The way of which big banks recruit students to be via performance not your background or your Academics or anything like that It should be that you get hired based on how good you are at doing the role in question And so how we achieve that is by doing simulations and we run Students university students through these kind of tests and we're able to capture data and that data can perhaps Land you a role one of our big corporate clients. So check that out. It's free to do And it gives you access to our student hub with some other kind of more exclusive content for the hub and then Also, you'll get access to the market maker, which is a daily newsletter I put out, but if you just want to sign up for the newsletter, absolutely feel free to go ahead and do so All right Little bit of a bid coming through in cable. I think we need to outrageous again We don't forget even prior to this coming out. We were already trading up at around these levels So all in all we're only within a 10 pips higher than where we were prior to the the morning So, yeah, nothing really too big a deal here from the Bank of England All right, that's it guys. So thanks for joining Lady Jennifer Sean Neil Davidson Alexandra's Billy the kid Do I think gas prices will push up UK CPI? Well, the Bank of England are saying that Inflation is going to be a little bit higher above 4% which is a slight upward Revision from what they previously said. So, yeah, it might well do but they've stuck to their guns that that will be transitory And one would imagine that is the case these these gas prices are a function of the pandemic reopening pains To some extent and so you would expect those to moderate over time not remain Consistent Gavin. Hope you're well Someone's asking what time do I wake up? I don't get up as early as I used to in my my former former life When I used to work on a news analysis desk. I used to get up about five But I used to live very close to the office when I didn't live so close used to get up at about half four in the morning Sounds early, but you get used to it And you know, I kind of liked being looking at the news first being ahead of the game ready to rock and roll before the open So, yeah Yeah, if you just joined the channel, thanks for joining Yeah, I hope you enjoyed the briefings as well any comments on those day-to-day. Just let me know Yeah, germcorp in the good old days after the figures in the pub for traders. Absolutely. Yeah back in the good old prop days for sure You could you could grab a a pasty downstairs at Liverpool Street And then then go to Jamie's If you remember All right. Well, look Sterling just catching a bit of a bid now So let's just have a look Just gone through those previous levels there That you can see and then we just come up to 137 17 now would be an upside target from that 17th And so Friday and Monday kind of Support-resistance area that keep an eye on Yeah, Antonio. Don't worry. I'm not I'm not even eating the pork pies As you can tell All right, that's it guys take care and I'll see you for the next live session Sterling is remaining a little bit bid though for the moment. So I'd still be keeping a half an eye on it at the moment