 These secured overnight finance rate unchanged at spot 0.5%. Comment from the Fed Harpen says after finishing asset versus taper of March, they will probably expect a 25 basis point rate hike. Welcome traders. So, this week's live trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnerly. Before we get going here, if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen, if you could type a wine to the chat box so that I know we're good to go. Thank you, Joshua. Thank you, Sammy. Good stuff. Okay, let's get this show on the road. Before we start, just a bit of housekeeping here. If you have any questions, Hi, Jason. If you have any questions during the presentation, if you want to drop them into the Q&A or into the chat, I won't cover them as I'm going through the charts. What I will do at the end of the session is open up a brief Q&A where I'll cover off any questions you might have with respect to any aspect of trading or a chart maybe that you want me to take a look at that I don't cover in my presentation. Happy to do that at the end of the session. So, before we jump into the presentation, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to today's discussion is the fact that the views expressed by me here today are solely mine. They're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Noel's got no sound. Okay, so for those that are here for the first time today, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. So, essentially, I had front-row seat in the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, sometimes quite literally overnight. So, I decided to explore my curiosity for markets. I had some capital to play with and some time on my hands and I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately, day gambling, after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into what were going to prove to be some pretty significant losing positions. I eventually gave back all my gains and took a six figure hit on my personal capital. So, that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So, I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So, I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I was not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which are underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental gains and probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So, what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and the hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I have also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentioned hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm resident market experts exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TICMIL. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos on three to five markets that I'm tracking through the TICMIL Trading View account. I also run TICMIL's rapidly growing E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trading plan for the US cash trading session. I give my bias for the day ahead in specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 1800 points of profit since we launched the group last April. The second TICMIL strategy group I ran is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. TICMIL Futures Trading Telegram Group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights analysis and trades. I also live streamed during the opening hour of the cash session in New York where traders can essentially look over my shoulder and watch in real time as I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These live trade sessions also act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and most importantly the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. That gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. What I want to do now is jump into the charts. Before I do that I will just quickly post into the chat here for those that are interested in any of those trade groups I run. You can access the Facebook group just simply by submitting a membership request and for those who are interested in following the Trading View ideas that I post on a daily basis those videos we have this Trading View account TICMIL trade ideas I post daily their daily videos on like I say three to five markets that I'm tracking and for those that are interested in finding out more about the Telegram Futures Group that does require you to have a funded TICMIL Futures account but you can if you want to direct message me through LinkedIn there's my profile you can follow up with me on that through a direct message. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from and now we want to jump into the charts. Today I'm going to use multi-time frames. The longer time frame is going to be the daily chart and what I'm going to do is through the intraday hourly chart identify some trading opportunities to align with what I perceive to be the daily trend. Now you'll notice that the colors of the candlesticks are slightly different to those of just the standard green meaning a bullish close and red meaning a bearish close. Mine are trends determined and the trend is based upon a volumized average price on the daily charts and on the hourly charts. So this just the reason I have these is just simply to better define trend and to not get taken out of trend moves on on the interim reversal. So that's just to explain the color coded nature of the candles. So looking first of all here at the S&P 500 this is the many futures contract here for the S&P 500. If you're trading the actual spot S&P 500 through Tick Millers in terms of the MT4, you need to adjust the levels. Currently I think the spread is about seven points but I use the futures for my trading. So what we're tracking here is essentially we've had what could possibly be considered a corrected move and the reason why I refer to that is that we had from the price here an ABC pattern and we traded just shy of the 4570 which was the equality objective versus the swing structure. When I'm talking about equality objectives, when I'm talking about our ABC in Elliott Wave terms would be considered a BC corrections. Now obviously we can have more complex corrections. You can do a double or even a triple correction but the initial objective for any corrective move is going to be the equality level and so that's the one that I'm always looking forward to pay attention to. So we have technically completed what can be considered a correction. The move off the lows of the current swing lows just ahead of that 4570, 4573. Also at this stage is corrective in nature and so far as we have this reaction high, the initial reaction low. So we have reaction high, reaction low and you can see there. Let's take a look at this one. We have traded just into what could be considered another correction. So if this scenario, if we're going to do a double correction, what we'd anticipate is that we are going to see this type of pattern developed. So we have this and then we have this and this and this and then we would get another corrective leg to the downside which more often than not will be equal to this leg here. So this would be considered a double correction. So we have this pattern or the XYZ pattern if you're an earlier wave fanatic. So this is the potential scenario versus this 4741 high but what I'm looking at here now on the intraday charts is we have potential triangle scenario and if we can hold support back into 4697, that's going to be a key level I'm going to be watching today as a potential trade zone for me. If we hold this 4697, it's also projected ascending trend line support versus the current swing structure we're in. If we can hold there, get bullish reversal patterns, then I would be looking for a move back up through this 4741 to take us up into the 78.6% retracement of the entire decline at 475750, then that would become a decision point for the market because what you'll also notice here is that versus the last leg of upside that we had, the Santa Claus rally as such, we actually held 78.6% retracement to the downside. So it's more often than not in these futures we will test these 78.6% retracements and then we'll see whether or not buyers have enough appetite to take us through that level because once we get a close through the 78.6% retracement, that sets up a high probability scenario of testing the 127 extension of that prior swing which would then have us up new all-time highs for the 871. So it's going to be an interesting session today in terms of futures. We've got PPI data out later today. If we hold this 46.95 to 97 area, I'm going to be looking for long positions to take us up into that 47.57. However, if we fail at the 94, that would suggest that this correction is complete and then we'd be thinking again about that double corrected scenario and we'd be targeting to move back down into the lows here 45.21 and 45.09 being the 127 extension. So that's what I'm tracking in terms of the futures there. Let's move and take a look at the dollar index. So this chart load, you can see the dollar is sitting right at the trend channel support. Now a bunch of people have sent me a message me regarding the the price section in the dollar and confusion as to why the Fed are pretty much locked into raise rates in March now, why we're seeing this dollar weakness. I've got a note here from Citi that I've shared in the in my in the trading groups, but for the purposes of you guys just quickly to get a take here from Citi who obviously see a tremendous amount of FX flow and positioning and you can see they identify three real factors and they're actually seeing a sector rotation and certainly a lot of investment banks have been calling this year for outperformance in terms of the euro stocks and the euro area. So what does that mean? Well, it means that fund flows could be shifting. So if US investment managers want to put on positions in Europe, that means they're having to convert dollars into euros to to put on those positions or sterling if they want to get exposure in the UK. So you can see here that Citi have highlighted these three factors. So positioning again from a CTA perspective remains very long dollars and we have also seen this big rise in oil which more often than not is a negative for the dollar and certainly that's what's happening at the moment and that's leading to some of these commodity currencies to outperform in terms of the dollar. So we're going to look more closely at the euro and sterling and these currency currencies. I just wanted to give you a heads up there on the institutional take as to why we're seeing why we're seeing a bit of a bit of weakness in terms of the dollar index. Citi do however know that they they are still looking for one for an additional one more high here in terms of the the dollar as we as we get that first rate high whether or not we're going to see that is is up for debate and certainly from a technical perspective if we can't hold the support here at 94.50 then I'm going to be moving to a bearish stance on the dollar and looking for price to extend to the downside. So if we close below that 94.50 any pullback back into this trend line support coming in just ahead of the 95 will will actually be to my mind anyway a shorting opportunity and certainly then I've been looking for a move down to test the yearly pivot 93.80s and if if we continue to find fresh selling there I'm looking for a test of this high volume lows 92.80s is the next downside objective. Now obviously the inverse scenario here is that we hold the trend line we get a bullish reversal and and then we start to develop for this final move up to make a new high as the fed potentially make their first move in March and I've been looking for a move up towards 97.70s to 98.00s handle and then from there we could see a more meaningful correction. So we really are testing pivotal levels for the dollar at the moment and it's going to be interesting to see how how the price action develops in terms of the hourly the intraday setup at the moment remains bearish and if we think in terms of the wave structure here we'd be thinking about another potential leg down here to get that break of the of the trend line and then we'd look for further corrective moves to find weakness before completing this initial structure to the downside so once we get that pattern developed then what I'd be looking for would be a three wave corrective move to basically equal what's what we've got here in terms of this potential one two if we if we're going to consider this is our way one this is our wave two correction then we've got this internal five wave structure developing so then we'd have a more meaningful correction that would take us back into that 95 area that I've just talked about if we do get the break and that will be the the opportunity on the short side to set up a move down into the yearly pivot 93.80s and then be on there 92.80s being the high volume nodes so that's what I'm tracking at the moment with the dollar now obviously the inverse would really require us to to see a sharp reversal from the trend line we're not currently seeing that and that's the first sign to me or the heads up that we might be seeing a more meaningful change in trend here in terms of the dollar more often than not when get if you look at these prior tests of the trend line we get some sharp reactions we're not seeing that at the moment in the dollar so that that can be the first alert that we're just going to see a more sustained change in trend in terms of the dollar index so if that's the dollar view let's take a look at the euro so the euro I was tracking on the daily time frame this wedge scenario we have broken out of the trend line resistance now what I really want to see is I want to seek to come to get to get really constructive on the euro I really want to see the the dollar break its trend line which we haven't quite done at the moment so for now the euro has tested into the equality objective 114.68 seeing a little bit of profit-taking but if we look at the intraday structure here and we think about the same scenario that or the inverse to what I've just talked about in terms of the dollar what I'd anticipate now is that we have that's this so we're going to move up into the 115 from there I'd look for a more sustained corrected pullback ideally then we get a test of this 114 these price as support and then we take off to the upside so you can see that this is the breakout point of this ascending triangle pattern that we've been trading in so any moves back now into this 114, 113.80 I'm going to be watching carefully for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a move up we want to be thinking about the yearly pivot here 116.30 as the next logical progression for a target in terms of the upside for the euro dollar now obviously any sharp rejection from this zone that gets back inside the trend line tomorrow would actually be a would be a bearish development less it's possible but less probable at this stage is what I would say so we'll be watching to see if we can get a weekly close through the trend line and then I think we can we can start to think about more significant upside targets for the euro and certainly one of them would be an equality objective versus this last meaningful correction that we had so if we overload that versus our current low you can see that would actually put us back up into 117.50s now from there we could actually do another leg to the downside or only because you can see that this could potentially be a wave three low wave four and then a wave five to the downside so again key decision points ahead but for now what we're looking at is the opportunity to engage on the long side certainly if we get a close another two-day close through that trend line is pretty it's pretty constructive for the bulls and we'll be looking to to get in long versus this this breakout point on the euro now let's take a look at sterling similar scenario on the daily chart here you can see we have taken out the trend line so the immediate target for me now with sterling is going to be 138 138 39 from there I'd anticipate a bit more of a corrective pullback but then again we want to be thinking about about upside extension in terms of sterling so any pullbacks at this stage back into 136 40s and this this ascending trend channel support here and just address that any pullbacks into this zone I'm going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns games get in on the long side and we'll be looking for an extension up into that 138 40s as the next upside objective so 200 pits to play for there if we can get this pullback to to hold the trend line support and then we'll be looking to get in on the long side looking at let's jump into some of these commodity currencies here we've got the dollar CAD now the dollar CAD this is also another key trend line test that's that's in play here you can see we have potential third test now more often than not these third tests will hold but with this with this color the current dollar dynamic any close through this trend line will again drag on the dollar and and see these commodity currencies advance so paying very close attention to this level here on the dollar CAD 124 50s if we get a close below there that's a significant bearish development we then want to be targeting 122 95s and then back into the lows here at 120 so for now we stay bearish the dollar CAD let me just draw in what I'm looking at here so any moves that when we take out the trend line and then three-way corrective moves into the trend line resistance here on the intraday the hourly timeframe so 125 20s to 125 30s would be opportunities on the short side for to set up an extension to the downside in terms of the dollar CAD at this stage again can't really get constructed unless we get a bullish reversal here that takes out this interim descending trend line resistance and then we could see a more sustained corrective move potentially or we ascend then up to that 132 23 a quality objective versus this bigger swing structure again possible but at this point given the dollar dynamic less probable would be my my thoughts at this point and certainly when we start now to look you can take a look at the Aussie here so we're seeing some strength in the Aussie I mentioned this last week so we've got a trench channel here to look at on the intro time frame so pullbacks now that find support into this high volume mode and the projected pitchfork support coming in 72 50s should be opportunities on the long side we want to engage there looking for a move up to ultimately test the trend line resistance coming in 74 60 74 70 now that obviously implies a failure of the trend line resistance trend line supports sorry in terms of the dollar CAD let's take a look at some of the commodities themselves and start to lean to the bullish side in terms of commodities and I'll explain why in a minute certainly with the oil move so you can see on the daily in terms of gold there's not really much to do here we're trading in the triangle at the moment and I've been waiting for the triangle to get a retest or a break before doing something in gold silver similar well we're trading within the wedge at the moment in terms of silver if we can get a move through the weekly range resistance here there would be an opportunity on the long side to play for this move here where we get a test into sending trend line resistance 24 25s there and there may be a new low before extending to the upside in terms of silver but the one that's of most interest to me at the moment in terms of commodities is crude oil so crude is sitting right at this trend line resistance so what we want to see in terms of crude now is any pullback into this trend line support and these prior highs so the 8040 level in crude this is what I want to pay attention to because if we can get back in here and we get a bullish reversal pattern from this area then I'll be looking on the long side to play for a break of that trend line resistance here on the daily time frame so through 83 20s and then we should break the prior highs at 85 85 39 and then in terms of upside objectives what we want to track is the fid tool here we have a 127 extension then up at 91 64 so we're through the 78.6 retracement which is really gives conviction on the bullish side so what we're looking for is that first pullback we could from the current levels if we look at if we think about it in terms of wage structure we could have a quite a deep pullback here which would still be bullish and still give us that extension then up through the the highs let's just measure that versus that pullback and then in early wave terms what we want to think about is five equals one so the fifth wave equal to the first wave as a minimum objective so we could pull back in theory here into the 76 level and it would still be a bullish structure versus this this equality objective and and set up that move to break the highs preferred scenario like I say is that on the intro time frame we're going to move back into this support so in 80 40s bullish reversal pattern from there to extend to the upside initially targeting 85 70s in terms of crude let's check in with the cryptos here bitcoin has tested that daily sending trend line support can't can't really get too excited about this until we take out this descending trend line once we do then we may have a more meaningful low in place in terms of in terms of bitcoin here and pullbacks then should should be opportunities on the long side to at least play for that gap fill up to the 53,700 level this is obviously the continuous future futures contract that's why it's got a gap obviously bitcoin itself doesn't actually have a gap because it trades 24 hours a day but this is the futures contract so it has a gap 53,600 will be the magnet if we can take out the descending trend line resistance ether really trapped at this stage in this descending trend line whilst this is still in play and I think the picture for ether remains pretty bearish and we can start to think about this trend line support projected pitchwalk support 2321 from rejections at the 3500 level so that's going to be a key test for ether if we can get through there then we can start to get constructive again on ether and start to think about upside objectives but for now it's uh it looks looks bearish dolly yen so we have dolly yen breaking it's uh it's trend line support it's internal trend line support here as we get through there the next stop for the dolly yen is actually going to be quite a way down back into this 111 80 ascending trend line support so in terms of the intraday what we want to see is a close through the uh the trend line support and the pivot at the moment so if we get a close if we get through back into 114 and then we want to think about a move that corrects in uh an equal weight to this last leg here so we want to see this type of scenario develop then we retest the on the daily we'd be retesting the trend line from below to actors resistance and that's going to be where the opportunity on the short side is and then we would be setting up for a downside extension into um trend line support coming in 112 30 so uh it's ample room on the downside and again this feeds into that idea of the dollar ultimately failing at its uh and its trend line support so it's really for me at the moment it's going to be key to watch how this dollar index uh responds to the uh the trend line test that's underway and like I say at the moment we're not really seeing much appetite in terms of in terms of the balls and so I'm starting to think in terms of a breakdown and then playing that first retest of the 95 level from below I think will be an interesting opportunity and obviously then that feeds into uh the FX majors as uh as I've discussed so those are the charts that I'm tracking at the moment and the uh the opportunities I see uh in developing in the in the coming sessions really and so uh keeping an eye on those I'll be updating them in the uh the tick mill uh trading view account which I posted the link for in the chat uh so at this point I'm happy to uh open up for any questions anyone uh have a chart would like me to take a look at but I haven't covered you can type it into the chat or the q and a okay sterling swiss to start with let's go okay so this one is sitting right at this trend line have we tested well we're just shy of trend line support uh trend line resistance there if we look at the intraday structure let's zoom out so we have the trend line support here oops so what I'll be looking for on this one is the quality objective so we have this leg this leg and this leg so I've been looking for a move uh whilst we hold 125 60s as resistance and let's see this pattern play out and then get in on the long side certainly thinking about that trend line test so we have uh 126 30s so we've given entry here potentially at uh this trend line support in this pivot cluster the quality objective 124 50s watch for bullish reversal patterns there and uh and I think that's a decent opportunity on the long side their third test of the trend line as well like that and uh and then we can play for a challenge on this uh descending trend line resistance uh which would actually technically be a fourth test and so um as you know those fourth tests uh the resistance is probably weakened significantly and so they provide a decent opportunity for a break and then we'd have that high volume mode 126 95 127 so this great risk reward scenario here nice technical setup and and yeah so watch for the bullish reversal pattern at the 124 50s sterling yen and this one is uh is looking at the moment like uh like it could do this ascending triangle pattern here so if we can hold 156 50s do we have a quality objective there let's just look yeah we have the equal legs 156 50s we have the pivot there um so any move into this own bullish reversal patterns engage on the long side we might consolidate here at the uh the trend line resistance third test but ultimately we'd be looking for a breakup and um if we extend then we can start to think about that 160 there on the upside which again if we think about the wave structure here we have a potential five equals one would put us up there um quite nicely and then from there i'd be anticipating uh we see a bit more of a sustained corrected move but you can see the structure there on the daily works nicely and we have a nice entry here watching for reversals from 156 50 and Kiwi CAD so the Kiwi CAD looks uh looks to be setting up that's yeah so what i'd anticipate here with Kiwi CAD is essential for um trend line here where price stalls out at the um at the 78.6 61.8 percent extensions from the uh this i classify this as a potential double double correction so an x y z pattern um but what we could look at is for um here on the let's do this one second to measure this and this and this so yeah what i like with this then is um we probably are going to correct higher here but ultimately what i'll be looking for will be for uh the price to stall out in and around these prior lows here 86.14 and then a final extension down into the 83 uh 83 level and then from there i think we could see a more sustained corrected move completing this uh the equality objectives on multiple swings there so um pullbacks like i say into 86.12 let's draw in what that might look like here so something like like this would work and then look to engage on the short side so that makes sense i mean okay any other questions equi if you don't have a question and any in the chat box is useful so i know that uh we're all on the same page and i've done a reasonable job of explaining what it is i am looking at and where the opportunities are for the week ahead okay if there aren't any other questions i'm going to uh are you using high can actually candles um now i'm not using high can actually these uh these are trend candles as as defined by the volume wasted average price no problem joseph okay like i say you can follow me on on the trading via put the link into the chat and feel free to join me in the the futures group for that daily trade plan and uh i'll look forward to uh recombining same time next week all the best everyone thanks very much