 D已 Couldn Thank you. It was a great day, I have been terrified all day. I have been thinking how I'm going to marry up what I am saying to these fantastic debates. I'm actually going to talk most about demography, in fact I have got some treparation one reason, is that the person of commission who is the guy that I am talking about is in the room, that he revealed himself before lunch. Mae rhannwch i'n gweithio'r bod nhw'n erbyn gwneud yn ddysgwrs not transmission yn gyfael arna yng nghymmgwyd yn maen nhw. Felly dyna'r darmenau o'r cyd-giw wedi'i eich bod ni'n bwysig. Mae'r mewn ddysgwr sydd y gweld y tu allan hanes. MEYchaf yw'n ffaith cyllideb. Maen nhw wedi bod nhw'n ddysgu'r bwysig a'r holl ganddiwch chi fod yn mynd i ddim yn ddaliad ar y cyfrifiad. a dyna'n byrwyr, mae'n bwysig iawn, oherwydd yna'r ddysgu digon, a dyna'r ddysgu wahanol. Yn y pethau, wrth gwrs, mae'n ddefnyddio'n ffordd oherwydd yng Nghymru a Llyfriddau mae'n ddechrau i ddefnyddio'r ddiffyniad o'r pethau o'r ddifyniadau o'r ddifyniadau oherwydd o'r ddifyniadau a'u ffordd o'r ddefnyddio'n ddefnyddio'n ddefnyddio'n ddefnyddio'n ddefnyddio. Gwyddiw, mae'n meddyliadau sydd gennych cyfnodd. Yma, roeddwn i年i gwychselu chydig. Yna'n mynd i gwych yn ddigon o mynd dec lipid. Oeddaeth ddoedd drug o ddweud. Gofynno'r mynd i gwych yn edrych cyfrannu a'r ysgrifon. Gofynno'r mynd i gwych yn cyfrannu. Gofynno'r mynd i gwych â gwbl deiligwydio a gweithfwrdd. Mae'r mynd i ddweud yn cyd-ylen o'r gyfer ysgrifon. But nevertheless, international, and then internal migration are a key part of the picture. And so a lot of what I'll say will be talking about those kinds of issues and related demographic change. So there is a need then in essence to consider how changes in religious tomography and associated changes in demography and the presence of religious populations, faith communities will change religious landscapes in the future. Mae'r prydyn ni'n credu i yw'r clyweddau gyda Ieigwyr. Mae'r prydyn ni i'n credu i'w rai gwirionedd ac i'w Rodgers i gydigogu ac i gael gwirionedd ac i gael gwirionedd ac i gael gwirionedd Llandu. Rwy'n gwirionedd gyda Lundigarol, iawn o'r gwnaeth, dyna'r gwahanol, a dyna'r gwahanol ymweld y ffordd o'r gwahyddoedd cyfnod o'r swyddiad mewn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn agynon. Mae'r gyfweliad hwn o gweithio, ond mae'n mynd i'n cydwyddoeth ar y cyfnod hyfforddon. Children's hunter is not to be reductive, it is to remind ourselves that Britain has been long been and continues to be a destination for migrants and for patterns of settlement. Of course these are out of her account, issues of second and third generation, and why the questions of identity, there is a problem of othering when you talk about migrants all the time, is not only about migration. ac mae'r cyfwyr yng Nghymru yn ystod o'r ddaeth gyfnod yn ddod yn ymgyrch yn ysgrifennu. Mae'r cyfwyr yn ysgrifennu, rydyn ni'n meddwl i'w bwysig, y cysylltu'r cyfwyr yn ei ddynnu'n gwybod i'r ffordd ar y cyfwyr. Mae'r cyfwyr yn ysgrifennu. Yn y gweithio'r cyfwyr yn ysgrifennu, mae'r cyfwyr yn ysgrifennu, mae'r cyfwyr yn ysgrifennu, yn ysgrifennu, yn ffordd, yn ysgrifennu. Felly mae'r drwg wedi'u project yn ymdodd fel y buraio. Mae'r Cyngor Barchiwn Dagynwyr yn ymddangos, yma'r cerddffod honno, unrhyw o noddau gwybod yn ddifrif yn ysgrifonau yn y ddyn nhw, yn y ddyn nhw i lwn, mae'r ddyn nhw'n ddyn nhw, mae'r ddyn nhw'n ddyn nhw i lwn yn y ddyn nhw, nid yw'r ddyn nhw, mae'r ddyn nhw i ddyn nhw i ddyn nhw i ddyn nhw i ddyn nhw, terms, which are therefore spatially and socially very dynamic. So, as I said before, it's a project that aims to address both current and future needs for places of worship, faced by what the borough clearly recognises as a growing issue around religious population growth and related emergent spatial needs. The report should be out in March this month. We hope it will be. So, as I'm saying, it's a borough that's experienced considerable demographic change in recent decades, and clearly we'll see this from the slides I'm going to show in a minute. We would expect this pattern to continue. It is a focus of both international and internal migration, particularly from inner London. And just to bear that point out, between 2001 and 2011 it witnessed the fifth largest growth in any local authority context across England and Wales in terms of the proportion of residents born outside England and Ireland. It's culturally and socially diverse, therefore. And we could think of that in many other terms, as well as religion. For example, language, we know that from the census there were 72 different non-English languages recorded in the census as the main language of households in the borough. So language is also an indicator of cultural diversity and difference in this context. As well as being dynamically changing, it's also growing in absolute terms. So the GLA has predicted that there will be a substantial growth in population, the centre for 3.4% from 2015 when they conducted their projections down to 2050. So substantial overall growth, and we can also already see some of that taking place between the 2001 and 2011 censuses. So a 13% growth in the population within the borough, and within that some major changes already just across the decade in terms of religious makeup. We can see, just a headline figures here, that the Christian population fell by 8%, the Jewish population by 22%, but that all other religious populations grew in that period, Hindi, Sikhs, Buddhists. Particularly the Muslim and the African-Christian populations were real foci for growth. So the Muslim population grew by 257%, major growth, and also the African-Christian population grew by 307%. It's actually one of the local authorities in the UK where, in England and Wales, where the African-Christians are particularly highly represented. I think it's the highest in percentage terms, seventh in absolute terms. I gather from Andrew, a real expert on this in the room, that Southwch is number one. But clearly then an issue of changing dynamics in terms of religious population makeup. That's just bearing out the point from the previous slide. It's also reflected geographically, I have to talk about geography at some point. So if you shift scale again to below the borough, you can clearly see that there are patterns of change reflected again across the census, that's an inter-sensual period, across the wards that make up, that the 17 wards that make up the borough. It varies of course, but all wards witness growth, ranging between 0.8% and 33% growth in population that is. And in terms of particular groups, again telling dynamics, the Christian population fell overall in most of those wards, as did the Jewish population, whereas the Muslim presence grew across all of those wards, and with particular concentrations in some key wards. And likewise with some of the other, he quotes minority populations, Hindus and Buddhists and Sikhs. Another way to look at this is issues of segregation. Again, it's a bogie issue, perhaps it's not bogie, it's a very important issue, but I'll smegwled it in to this discussion, partly one of the topics I work on, but again it's important. No reckoning segregation, it's a politicised issue in terms of how particular communities, sub-communities are represented, so we need to kind of engage with it anyway. But it's important for us in terms of how it tells us where communities are moving to in relative terms, relative to each other. Quite against the thrust of segregation debates in popular parlance, actually segregation in Britain is falling. We know that, we've been able to show that across a series of censuses all the way from 1991 to 2001 to 2011. So all that scary language of introspection, of cultural isolation, of parallel lives, it is that it's myth-making and very dangerous myth-making and we need to treat it as such and be very bold about saying so. And that national pattern is replicated here in Buckingham Daggerham. So generally speaking, segregation has fallen for most faith populations across that inter-sensal period. I've highlighted some key ones here, particularly the largest, apart from the small, quite small populations, the Buddhist is quite a small population, but for the larger groups, the Christian, the Muslim populations, a significant degree of falling segregation. And then some marginal increase, again, not significant for the Hindu and the Sikh population. Generally, when we think of segregation, it's an index varying from 0 to 100, figures from 0 to 30 are low, 30 to 40 are moderate to low or low to moderate, and above 40 you start talking moderate to high. So you can see here anyway segregation in the thorough is not high and it is generally falling. So that's good news. Well, the debate. Moving into the landscape, the religious landscape issues that relate to some of that tomography. Of course, it reflects some of this change. A lot of the things that you've talked about, the speakers so far have talked about in a lot more detail that I'm going to, are clearly reflected in the changing religious landscape in Buckingham Daggerham. We have new purpose-built buildings. So we have the Amadena mosque here on the left. We have conversions. So this is the main parking group Wara, which I believe, although Clare may go to correct me, I believe is a converted school. But again, she's going to go to correct me on that. So conversions, purpose-built, and then in terms of Christian communities, older building stock of course, and then the growing African Christian Pentecostal presence in terms of, particularly in terms of newer conversions. That's going to continue and that's I'm going to move into that issue now. What we're looking at in the borough, I'm getting in a little bit for the moment, but is a huge issue as those particular populations grow, as particular faith groups grow in number, a huge issue of unmet demand, and that's really the issue that motivated the borough council to commission this report, as I understand. Just pushing the job a bit further, I guess some fairly obvious points, but this is the distribution of churches relative to the Christian population. As you'd expect, there's a fair evenness of spread in terms of the underlying population and likewise of the related places of worship, Christian churches. In terms of the Muslim presence, there is some concentration. Again, segregation, remember, is low, but there are concentrated patterns. There's a degree of clustering, which, again, you would kind of expect to some extent. And the geography of the current geography of mosques reflects the underlying demographic geography, likewise. Similarly, with the Hindi population, concentration to the eastern side of the borough, in actual fact, most of the Hindu temples, I believe are in neighbouring areas and they're not actually in Barfkindagiru, that explains from that east-oriented geography. So in Ilford and other places, I think, is where you'd find most of the Hindu temples. And again, some of that geography, that eastern-focused geography, in terms of the Sikh presence, although some concentrations elsewhere in the borough as well. So what does that mean in terms of issues of buildings and groups? So the survey that formed part of this study identified 109 Christian groups, 14 Muslim groups, one Hindu, one Sikh, one Jain. But the Christian groups, 13 of nine, we kind of identified as traditional. These are loose terms, but generally referring to the Anglican, Roman Catholic, Baptist and Methodist groups. And then 17 Euro groups, mostly Pentecostal groups. And in terms of building use, so the survey identified that 52%, slightly more than half, were in purpose-built structures of one sort or another. And then a further 21% of fifths were converted for religious use. Interestingly, there were also other buildings that were being used in an unformalised way. So not all buildings were... Not all groups had identified buildings for meeting in other settings. The headline point again, huge issue of growing and unmet need for religious space for minority faith groups. That's borne out by this chart, which is just summarising the figures on the previous slide. The survey also asked what are the issues in terms of current needs and likely future needs. So all identifiable groups were surveyed and responses to this survey. This is a percentage here now, percentage response to the survey. Comparing Christians with Muslims just for the sake of simplicity with this slide. And you can see that just slightly more than a third of Christian respondents identified that they needed additional space now. They got issues of confinement in terms of their current spatial needs. As well as, again, getting on for another third, 30%, who identified a likely need for space in the future. The former figure, much higher for Muslim respondents to the survey. So 58, getting on for 60% of Muslim groups in the borough who responded to this survey, identified that they need additional space now. They've got spatial issues currently. And then a further 15%, 16%, 17%, so that they are likely to need space, further space in the near future. So there's clearly an issue of growing need and emerging patterns in the current time. Of course, when you start to factor in, this is the other point of this study, was to project way into the future, all the way down to 2050. Of course, then that becomes enlarged even further. We have unmet demand at the moment. We have a growing population and growing religious populations. Clearly that need is going to continue emerging for the foreseeable future. And this is, I'm just going to share these quite boldly, that reason why I think they more or less speak to themselves. What we've shown through projection work is that the Christian and the Muslim population in particular, not only those, but those groups in particular, are going to grow substantially between the period from now until 2050. A little bit on how we generated this, is more methodological points now. We didn't start from scratch, so we didn't estimate values for migration, mortality, and so on, framed around religious, bespoke religious projections. We took the GLA ethnic population projections. We adjusted them using the borough populations to allow for anticipated development of housing, so new housing that they are expecting to build in the foreseeable future. And then we apportioned the ethnic populations into religion groups using the cross tabulations from 2001-2011 census. Not perfect, but robust, at least for the purposes of this study. And helpful because it fleshed out the points that I was making earlier in the presentation, that we get a sense of how particular ethnic groups within broader religious designations are growing vis-a-vis one another. That's particularly important in terms of the growing, extensively growing African Christian population. And this slide bears that out. So you can see, obviously, I've talked before about how the Christian population between 2001-2011 fell. But some of that fall is already being offset by the growth of the African Christian presence. And that will continue until the meeting point, roughly around 2014-2015. So there's an offsetting there, and it's not only the African Christian population and other ethnic groups within the overall Christian population as well. And hence, over time, a growth in the Christian population which will be ethnically diverse. We also looked at attendance. So one of the things we were trying to do was just not make assumptions about the overall broad sizes of, in quotes, populations. But to think through, what does it mean in terms of actual spatial means? So we, in the absence of better data, when there's an absolute, we need better data for this kind of work, but we made some assumptions and choices based on the best data available. One source of which is the British Social Attitudes in 2015. This wave of the BSA survey included a module on attendance. So we took responses to that survey, again, cross-tagulated by ethnicity and religion in terms of regular attendance and place of worship. We reckon in terms of once a week or more. And then applied that to the population figures that I've just shown you. And then we used, we derived from our survey responses, a spatial measure of unit of space to religious population as a rough relationship between current spatial uses and attendance, and then projected that forwards to allocate our spatial needs. I didn't think we'd probably need to get into this, actually, because it's a little bit techie. But we estimated, and again, remember this is key class because it hasn't been reported yet, but we estimated that current needs are around 34,000 metres squared. There's also, on top of that, this is currently now 5,200 metres squared, roughly, of unmet spatial needs in terms of what the survey respondents told us. Down to 2050, that's going to increase substantially. We're going to need around 77,600, 700 metres squared. So an extra was like 38,400 metres squared. Anyone can think what that means in terms of buildings. I actually can't on my feet, but it's a lot of space. It's a lot of space that we will need in the future. There's already unmet spatial needs, and that's clearly going to grow in the future. And then that's just graffing figures I showed on the previous slide for the trend. Rapidly bring this to a conclusion. I said it was data heavy. So bring this to a conclusion. It's very clear, just on this one case study, we could replicate this in many other cases. We could look at the centres of cities. We could look at, as we are in this case, issues of centrifugal movement out of inner city areas, we would find, obviously, new issues, but the broad pattern would be quite similar. That we are in a situation of dynamic population change. So we are then, in terms of landscapes of faith in the UK, in a profound process of change, and the Barking and Daglin case is a good case, a sufficient case to illustrate this. So on the one hand, this is analysis that shows that the current pattern of building use already reveals significant unmet demand. There is still an issue now that the communities are fighting for space, that's not quite the right word, but they are looking for additional space. But also over time that this emerging pattern of need is going to increase substantially, and we would expect that to continue. In terms of planning, major issues. It means that we have to think way beyond what we currently are. Our current debate is still playing catch-up with issues of current needs, recognising cultural differences and so on. The work that Andrew and I have done in the past shows that that debate still is way behind where we should be in terms of culturally nuancing the way planning functions. I'm sorry for the critical point that I've worked on this for a time. There are some great signs in terms of particular authorities are doing some fantastic work. I think this is ffarsighted that Barking Dagger in this case commissioned this work. And there are other authorities that we could cite as key instances of best practice and showcasing creative thinking around these issues, but there is a lot of work still to be done in terms of planning response. And of course it follows through in terms of heritage. This is fantastic that we're able to have this debate, but clearly the debates that we're having today around issues of competing values as they attach to built heritage and what we understand by that. And related practicalities around the reuse of existing buildings that are recognised as having a legacy and an important contribution to our heritage are likely to amplify. So to finish where I started, the key points are that these debates are going to grow in importance rather than stabilise and be settled any time soon. That's it.