 Welcome traders to another Tick-Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing March 27th. After last week's slew of central bank inputs, we have a much quieter week in terms of the data slate. Focusing the US is going to be on inflation and how that's been affected by this stress that we've seen in the financial system. However, over the weekends, we have had news that Silicon Valley Bank have been acquired and assets and deposits are secured. So following the 25 basis point rate rise last week, markets will be listening for Fed officials, latest views on where the risks lie and how they see the path for monetary policy evolving. Central bankers continue to argue that financial stability, policy measures and price stability measures should be viewed separately. But the feedback from the stresses in the financial system look to inevitably impact the real economy and the outlook for inflation. In this regard, markets were keeping a close eye on consumer sentiment measures given the unsettling news flows surrounding the banks in recent weeks. There are also plenty of housing data out this week, while the Fed's favoured measure of inflation, the core personal consumer expenditure deflation is also due to be published. So in terms of the data slate, Tuesday we start with the housing data, FHFA, house prices index, the house price index, S&P, case Schiller also released. Payson price declines have clearly slowed, but a recovery is not yet in sight in terms of the housing data. We'll also get the March Richmond Fed Index Regional Surveys highlighting manufacturing, ongoing manufacturer challenges. Last time that was a negative 16 print there. And we will also get the March Consumer Confidence Index looking for a, minor pullback there to 101.5 from last month's 102.9, the uptrending confidence, limited by rates and real income. And heading into Wednesday we'll get the February pending home sales data. Last time we saw an uptick to 8.1%. Now we're going to see whether or not that was synonymally related to the unusually mild start to the year, market surprising a negative 0.23% print for after the January bounce. Then heading into Thursday we will get Q4 GDP annualized looking for 2.7% versus the estimate of 2.7% last time out. We'll also get initial jobless claims to remain at a relatively low level for now. Last time 191,000 print there. We'll also hear from Fed speakers, Barkins and Collins. And then heading into Friday we'll get personal income looking for 0.3% versus 0.6% last time out, personal spending looking for 0.3% versus 1.8% last time and the PCE deflator looking for 0.4% versus 0.6% last time out and the core PCE deflator looking for 0.4% versus 0.6% last time. The flattening trend set to crystallize, indicating a loss of momentum in terms of consumer activity. The FOMC will be closely monitoring services inflation components as a key input there. We'll also get the March University of Michigan sentiment on Friday looking for 63.4 versus the estimate of 63.4. And we will hear from Fed speakers, Bar, Williams, Waller and Cook. Moving to the technical setup. So after completing the equality objective, the test last week into that 101.80, we saw a decent rebound heading into the back end of the week as a safe haven bid emerged for the dollar. So we're now going to, we've got to set up to test some critical levels as we come into the start of this week. Firstly, I'm tracking the symmetry swing objective to the upside, which coincides with the high volume note here on the four hour chart. So 103.20 is going to be the key level as we head into this week. If we can get through there, then I would expect that we will see further upside in the dollar. Next stop will be the weekly R1 103.70s and then onto that former swing high there, the 104.70s. However, if we fail to sustain or get acceptance above that 103.20s and we continue to trade below the trend channel resistance, we could anticipate that the dollar will actually roll over once again here, break the weekly pivot move down to retest the prior cycle lows en route to an ideal test of the weekly and monthly projected range support down towards the 101 handle. So all eyes really are going to be on whether or not we can get a sustained break through this 103.20s. Moving to the Eurozone, much quieter week there in terms of data. Thursday, we will look for March consumer confidence. Last time out a negative 19.2 and the March economic confidence was actually at 99.7. Inflation and interest rates are weighing on confidence recovery across both consumers and businesses. And then we round out the data slate for the Eurozone with employment data on Friday, 6.6% last time out for the employment rate. And we'll also get March CPI percent year over year, 8.5%. The labor market remains tight for now, but slack is expected to emerge gradually. Attention in terms of the CPI print is going to be firmly on the momentum in the services sector. So let's take a look at the chart in terms of the Eurodollar. Got a decent bid over the last week, pulled back as the dollar strengthened into the back end of last week. So again, the Eurodollar testing some key levels here. If we're going to see further upside, we would be looking for this 107 level to hold. If it can, and we get, we're going to move back through the 108 handle again, then we'll look for a retest the price cycle highs on route to an ideal test of the monthly projected range resistance and those price ring highs into that 110 handle. However, if we fail to hold onto the 107 and we see offers emerging into the market below that 107 level, then we'd anticipate move back down to test support into that 106 handle as the key area where we then once again look to retest the high volume from below, getting moved back into that 107.20. So it's really going to be key as to whether or not Eurobles can hold onto the 107 handle as we get things going this week. Moving to the UK, data wise, Tuesday, March, nationwide house prices, our pricing correction in the housing market in the UK remains well entrenched. Last time, we've got a negative 0.5% print there. Moving to Wednesday, we will get mortgage lending data, 2.5 billion last time out, but there is a downtrend that is firming amid broad spread correction in terms of the housing market in the UK. Then we round out the data in the UK on Friday with Q4 GDP, looking for a flat line there, 0.0%, the final estimate. In terms of the chart, stunning wise, we are looking at a test now of the 122.80s. If we can't get through there, got a potential head and shoulder scenario developing on the four hour time frame here, I'd be looking for a move back to at least test into that 1.21.30s, but if we can break through the 1.23 handle, we look for a retest of the 1.23.40s and then on to our target for the quality objective versus the 1.20.10 swing low, we look for 1.24.11. Moving to Japan, in terms of data, incredibly quiet, I think we only have one printed note which comes on Friday, the February industrial production, last time negative 5.3%, looking for a positive 2.7% print there, softening global demand continues to act as a drag on output in the Japanese economy. From a technical perspective, I'm looking for any three-way corrective moves back into test trend channel, projected trend channel resistance, just about 1.32 watch with bearish reversal patterns there. I'm also looking for a test of the monthly projected range sport down to just about 1.29, and then we have weekly projected range sport and these prior swing lows here at the 1.28.17 level at this stage would really take a close through this trend channel resistance to suggest that the corrected move to the downside is complete, and then we start to think about a grind back up into the 1.35 handle. Rounding things out from a data perspective down under in Australia, what do we have this week? Well, Tuesday we get retail sales data, looking for a 0.1% print there. There's the potential that we can see something as high as 0.5% monthly gains possible, but in the context of a material slowdown. We'll also hear from the RBA head of payments policy, currently speaking at a bank and summit on Tuesday, then heading into Wednesday CPI monthly indicator, looking for 7.2%. Markets to expect could see something in the range of 7.4%, and February survey, a large number of services prices were on the uptick there, and then we round out the data down under in Australia, February private sector credit, looking for 0.4%. Further confirmation of a significant slowdown in the credit sector there as the rate rises really start to bite. So, from a technical perspective, Aussie Dyer continue to hold this trend channel support. Any loss of this trend channel on a closing basis would be a bearish development, suggesting that we would take a look down into the weekly projected range support, and there's prior swing lows, the 66.50 handles. However, if we can hold the trend channel support zone, then we look for a test back into the high volume load 67.30s, and then we'll think about move back on into look at the 68 handle as the next upside objective for the Aussie. So, it's really going to be key as to whether or not we can hold this trend channel support for the Aussie dollar as we start the week. And running things out with a quick look at crypto and Bitcoin continues to trade in this potential megaphone pattern here. We are looking for move to test the 30,000 level from there. We're watching for bearish reversal patterns, and certainly as we maintain momentum divergence there, I think this could be an interim top, and then the first target to the downside will be a move back into the apex of the megaphone scenario here, 27,700 from just above that 30,000 levels to watching any test into that zone as we head into the week. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 27th of March. As always, traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.