 Mr. Steve Rose as we do each and every Monday at twenty past the hour and don't forget folks you can listen to Steve every trading day one to two Eastern standard time Steve also has a great newsletter and mastering probability now it's very easy to get this newsletter folks to come over to our website at TFNN you're going to go on to featured content you'll see you just hit subscribe you can get the letter for one month for a hundred forty nine dollars you can get it for six months for six ninety five which is a savings of a hundred ninety nine dollars at twenty two percent you get it for a year for eleven ninety five which is a savings of five hundred ninety three dollars and thirty three percent now they all come with a thirty a money back guarantee folks so check it out get what you like out there if you like it great you'll get charged the next month you don't like it you get your money back Steve Rose what's going on well it's hot outside it's hot outside there's no doubt and it's cold in the market like you said volatility is a trader's a friend out here so you know so I thought we would do kind of like we have here in the past because because it's really pertinent is just begin by taking a look at our annual seasonal cycle charts and the first thing that I would point out to folks that are looking at this is the typical pattern so this is over the last eighty six years okay typical pattern is that the Dow forms an initial high in the first few weeks of May turns out that day is around May nineteen then we see a movement down typically into June right around June twenty fifth then one last rally to set that summer high that typically comes July twenty first which is today's nineteen so would be on Wednesday but notice here the patterns the highs are typically very similar and so with the exception of the exact dates marking highs and lows so here's a menace it's an active chart of the Dow we actually had the high coming on May tenth in fact I think we missed it on Thursday by about one point and not that it needed to but that's you that was a resistance level out here and so what I would this stage oh I should you should be able to see the charts we can see them okay good perfect perfect okay so I'd really have to say that the cycle pattern isn't played because we had that initial remember it was May nineteenth well came in at May tenth June twenty fifth is typically a bottom was June eighteenth May twenty first yeah May twenty first is typically the on average the high it was May nineteenth at this stage out here so certainly the seasonal cycle pattern is in play and that suggests folks again that the markets could move lower should move lower into about the middle of October so for those folks that feel like they've missed the short side of this that that is not the case if especially that's not the case if we are in our unfavorable seasonal cycle out here that takes us down into the October timeframe so that's the first thing and if we're going to see a move lower and that's really important then what we do this is where we make our money so to speak this is where folks listen to us to try to understand where our key levels of support inside the Dow equity future contract that level is thirty three seven thirty one now thirty three seven thirty one folks that is the bottom of a TAS market profile okay and here we've got a chart that takes us back time into the two thousand seventeen timeframes we can see that when price closes below the bottom of this weekly of this weekly profile that can lead to much much lower price and the much much lower price right now if in fact we see a close and this close folks you'd really be looking at not what's going on today or Tuesday or Wednesday it's really the close on Friday so a closed time on Friday below thirty three seven thirty one would actually set up a move down to the top of its monthly profile and that's at thirty one four fifty three so that's a pretty good ways to the downside so we definitely want to keep as one of the levels that we're watching thirty one four fifty three there's another key level of support and it's the breakout area and the breakout level that I use are are formed by these TD nine counts it's a Tom DeMarc system out here and the low of that pattern which on the Dow which on the Dow equity future contract is thirty three six twenty seven I believe we've hit that or maybe just uh just below that or maybe a point above that uh during the day today so on a daily basis this is a real key level to watch because typically when you close below one TD nine breakout level you then move to the next one but as we speak right now and this is really important for everybody understand that first level has been tested in fact this would typically be the point in time at thirty three six twenty seven where people would buy the dip because this is the breakout area so very important level to watch and and from a breakout perspective if thirty three six twenty seven fails then on the Dow weekly chart our level becomes thirty three one fifty seven to look at so let me summarize this for everybody and everybody can write this down in their pad of paper and these are the levels that will be key now this is the Dow equity future contract okay the first level to be watching is going to be thirty three seven thirty one because closing below these areas specifically for their time frames then bring about the next areas of target so we're really going to be looking at this on Friday but we'll pay attention to it certainly today and tomorrow and so forth so close below that Tom brings us to then thirty three six twenty seven that was that daily TD nine breakout level a close below that brings us into thirty three one fifty seven that becomes the weekly TD nine breakout level and below that thirty one four fifty three and all of these are absolutely in play here over time especially if in fact that seasonal cycle has kicked in I recognize that not everybody tracks the Dow equity future contract so I've got a few things here for the cash industry in the cash industry and folks in my opinion the equity future contract for the work that I do is better than just take a look at the ETFs or the cash indices and the reason is because we have more discovery more time because it's traded about 24 hours a day but still I can use these same tools Tom on an index or a stock or or an ETF in this case here that level is thirty three eight sixty nine so if price is able to close below thirty three eight sixty nine that is going to suggest and this is a daily timeframe that is going to suggest lower price now the lower price level if I take a look at the cash industry Tom takes us all the way down to thirty thousand oh fourteen that is where the Dow broke out so this is the longer term picture this is where if the if we have entered that unfavorable seasonal cycle between July and October that really becomes a longer term target there's even another one below that at twenty eight nine oh two so all that being said so yeah so one of that that last one to give that's six months ago yeah okay yeah yeah that's on that that's the weekly breakout right you know and so and so if you break one you start you know break on the daily then you start taking a look at where are we at on the weekly time frame so this is kind of like the flying the financial employment so everything is pointing to we're in the unfavorable seasonal cycle and we should move lower but I want everybody to understand this as well and that is that since the March 2020 low the Dow has had seven what I refer to as two week knee jerk reaction lows and on this chart here the ones in the twos all the digits out here we're really looking at the red ones they represent where the close of the current week is below the close of the prior week okay and so I've got all these blue arrows pointed to those two levels there's only been one exception to the two week knee jerk reaction low and that was a four week time period back here in the august september time frame so this clearly looks like we may be in week number two and and so this would be this is the strongest element that I would could find for the bull case out there do I think we're here you know Tom price a time will tell you know whether we're here or not it's really important I want folks to understand this is that we should see a bounce or a short-term bottom form perhaps even tonight and one of the reasons because this advanced decline oscillator is in the extreme oversold condition out here that and we have a spot ball utility index that right now is a one-day rate of change well above 10 out there all this stuff included in the newsletter so that's what I that's what I see when we take a look at the charts right now and folks very easy guys newsletter come over to our website at tfn go into featured content you're going to see master in probability right there Steve you have a great one safe one we look forward to show tomorrow thanks Tom you thank you