 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Now, Tommy O'Brien. Hi, everyone. If you don't recognize the voice, that's because this is Basel Chapman, not Tommy O'Brien for the morning market kickoff. I'm sitting in for this hour. Tommy can't make it, and I'm going to be the guest host. So we're looking at the E-mini, you can see right here, down 29 at 3,900, stuck in this rectangle formation, but look at the 10-minute chart. Look at this from, you could call it about one, one yesterday, one o'clock yesterday to about three o'clock, in fact, yeah, to about three o'clock. There was a bounce, and then that bounce gave you the parameters for a most perfect down channel in the 10-minute E-mini, and it's just been stuck in this narrow band. I'm always absolutely, I have a reasoning for that. I have no, I wish I could do a mathematical kind of formula for it. I can only do a sentiment formula for it. And basically it says that there's the same, there's the same weakness that's within this particular series of tradables, in this case the E-mini, yes, M2210-minute chart, and the tide is going down. In other words, the trend is declining, and as it's declining, it's like a road that has this straight line down. I would call it maybe three degrees, three, maybe four degrees, actually I have a protractor over there. I don't know how many years, 20 years at least, I've kept wanting to speak to trade stations and say, couldn't we have one of those things that I always see on Larry Pesavento's show, where he has an angle, in this case the angle is going to do the other way around. So I'm going to say the angle is about seven percent. It's a seven percent or seven degree angle to the downside. So the sentiment is absolutely neutral, and that says that every rally only has X amount of energy to bounce, and then it's going to come back down to its base, except that the base is declining. So what you get is a channel like a tube, and every time it goes to the bottom it has some kind of testing trampoline bounce, and then it bounces and it gets close to the upper mini-channel, I call it the inside track repellent zone, and the bottom is the propellent zone, and every time it gets to the bottom it doesn't, how does it know not to break it? You see this is the question in technical analysis, how on earth would you know that you're not breaking this, and not only that, the price has no clue, I'm only looking at the price because that is a statistical factor, but in terms of buyers and sellers, what they know exactly that you're going to go right to their trend line? I think what happens is the measurement of sentiment is exactly the same until it explodes to the upside, or it increases to the downside, and as long as it does that it stays in the channel. For me that's the only explanation I can have. I've done, I used to sell at least a half a million charts, there's probably way more than that in my life, in my charting lifetime, I used to do them by hand, so that's all I can say. Alright, so out of that what I am looking at is that 200 period exponential moving average in the one minute chart is resistance, okay let's just run the numbers right now, let's go to the futures themselves, what I've got here is the VIX index, that's not the futures of 3417, it's kind of high, and that's just suggesting if there's any amelioration of tension that we've already had, we had the CPI number yesterday a little higher than expected, 8.3 I think it was, the PPI this morning was I think a tad higher, so far the response is not bad, it's just not great but it's not bad. So now what I'm looking at is within the context of the volatility index at 34.21 at this particular level, three points away from when Russia invaded Ukraine and we had interest rates, we had everything going on at that particular time and talk about COVID coming back in different forms, and here we are back when all of a sudden a great deal of the geopolitical tension is kind of ameliorated, this is subsided a little bit, so that just says to me under these conditions, and I have a scenario I'll try to talk about a little later on, I think that there's a chance that we are going to have quite an up move when it finally comes, but you've got to wait for that to get at patience, I think we're getting closer, and as we go through this hour or my hour, I'll talk about my scenarios. In the meantime, here we go, YM, the Dow futures, in leg C to the downside, minus 108 at 31,631, most importantly we're looking at the monthly chart, you've rolled over, you've taken out the left side low, you add a lower low, you're in leg B in the monthly chart, you've got sell mode in the daily, you've got a sell mode in the weekly, and I haven't yet even got a sell signal in the monthly, the monthly is young, let me tell you it is very young at the 12th of May, all right, so where's key support, next key support, I would say 30,000 is really important in the YM, looking at the ES, this is a continuous contract just for now, just because I need to get, I can show you the longer term charts, I can't do that on the June contract, in leg G slash C to the downside, we took out this arch formation, the left side, right side price time match, we had a nice bounce from the bottom there, and then what did we do, we rallied to peak A minus and plummeted down, and now we've extended, and no matter how I measured this is the area that says some form of a base needs to be made right here, otherwise Monday, Tuesday could be pretty ugly, and if you look at the weekly chart that is ugly, if you do a measured move, we're real close to exactly where the measured move would be at 3,900 in the E-mini, and looking at the weekly chart you've gone down to a similar leg B, not yet a sell signal, it's still in the peak B in the monthly chart, now the way I can count it, if you look at the QQQ, I'm using that instead of the thumb, I'll go to the futures, we're doing futures, I'll go to the futures, and Q took out from a peak G 16,789 high, back in November I believe it was, it's gone, it's in a leg after the downside, my measurement here says that we're at two days late to whole support and we've gone underneath, in this particular move right now, we've gone underneath the Chapman Wave inside wedge, target resistance line, usually I'll make that pink, there we go make that pink, and make that dash, and that's the line that we're looking at, so within that context, we're looking at, I just want to go to gold, I want to show you that gold is sitting right on this Chapman Wave inside track, propellant line in the weekly chart, it's held it so far but it has nicked it to the downside, I was asked about the IWM, we're gonna have an interview in a moment with Kevin Hanks, I'm really looking forward to that, great opportunity for this man of knowledge, so we've got the IWM down at minus 71 cents at 169.89, this is already in the monthly chart, no matter what happens after this, this is already in a sales signal, and the nine is finally across negative, so I don't see how I can not consider that that monthly chart of P, B and the S and P is questionable, doesn't mean to say we can't go down much further, but it says all the indices in the monthly charts are at levels where you can expect something like this, a big consolidation, I'll be back in a moment, Basil Chapman sitting in for Tommy O'Brien, market kickoff show, and I will be back in a moment, everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence, this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market, to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com, when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis, after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader, Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking, expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time, first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee, if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up, subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today 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the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free at TFNN. All our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors Hi everyone, Basil Chapman sitting here for Tommy O'Brien. This is the morning market kickoff show. Well, it's his hour. I'm doing the show so it's not obviously going to be completely different. I love the way Tommy mixes the fundamentals with the technicals. That's really very interesting and I love hearing it and he comes up with just ideas that, just concepts really that he puts together. He's got a very, very fine mathematical mind and that permeates everything that talks about when he's talking about the stocks and he gives nice validation of data that he looks at. So let's do this at this particular point. The question was on the IWM, where would I consider a target? Well, the high that was made back in January of 2020 at 170.56, we've already taken that out. So it's this whole entire area of the 167 to 169 area that has to become a base. And if that's not the case, then what we'll be looking at is something more in the, in the idea that the small caps, this is the Russell 2000 ETF, that's IWM, that the small caps, because of, because of the number of whatever the sectors are that are in favor, they have many more in those particular areas. So that says to me that we're going to have to wait for the small caps to become have some kind of leadership. We lost that December, January, February, a rotation we're very often over the years. I'm not talking about every other year or anything. I'm just going to go over decades. You would very often find that the small caps have either an early rally going into December, early January or late December going into maybe February. And this year, you can see that this particular high that was made right here in the IWM was November the 8th at 244.46. And then it did have a rally going from late January. But that was just more a sideways move. It did get up from the 190 area to the two, maybe two 12 area. And then it turned around and came all the way back. And yet it is early morning. We haven't had the market open yet. And let me just check this here. No, we don't have. Okay. And what we're looking at basically, now, let me just tell you, I have the opening call. That's my daily newsletter. We've raised the most amount of cash we've had in just really ages and ages. I am looking to put it to work. I am looking to say, there are some stocks and I I'm just figuring out a way to do it right now. There are some stocks that are really good companies and they have just been either taken apart and downside or basically decimated. So I'm trying to do some work by I think by this weekend, I should have a much clearer picture for the little section I call stocks to watch and the screamers. These are stocks under $9 that they can have really good percentage moves on a single day or maybe even you can hold them. So I'm looking at that. I might even I might even clear the deck. We do have Bitcoin left over from that fantastic move that we had back in. Yeah. Let me sell. Was that a question there? Oh, you do have Kevin Hings. So I'm going to stop everything because definitely I want to get exactly what Kevin Hings. Kevin, how are you? Basil, good to hear you. How's everything? Everything's good. Thank you. And not only that, I'm looking forward to this afternoon when I get to play tennis. I'm looking forward to that. So I got a question for you. I know that you do a tremendous amount of work on stocks that are coming up with earnings and you have a wonderful way of working at them using options trades and just positioning yourself, trying to assess the pros and cons at that particular time and how you would how you can educate people in terms of focusing. I just have a quick question. Maybe it's not a quick answer, but a quick question. And I don't know if you're even allowed to talk about this. Maybe this is inappropriate, but I just want to know genuinely just from your own just the kind of feeling. Do you get a sense that the public are less in the market over the last few weeks than there had been or more? Because people are coming working from home. That's a question. Yeah, I think if I got your question, what did you say? I just the question was, since we've got so many people still working from home, are there more people that you got a sense more of the layperson is in the market over the last three weeks or pulling back? That's if you get if you have a way of answering that. I think there's never been a retail trade numbers as high as they were, but now they're down off their highs. Oops, did I just lose Kevin? All right, I'm just going to ask my engineer if I lost Kevin or maybe I'll ask the den they should know that they're not hearing Kevin, because I'm not hearing Kevin. Let me get a question. Okay, here we go now. Oh, thank you. That's great. I thought for a moment that you were in the North Pole or something. Yes. Can you continue? So I'm back. So yes, I think there is a lot of paralysis going on right now. A lot of people not sure what to do with this market turned down. I think they see a lot of I mean, the the carnage that has happened in some of these tech stocks, and you saw it yesterday in Apple down 5%. Now they're starting to hit the most popular names, even some of the names that have held in there, the most widely held names for a stock like Apple to be down 5% yesterday. That's pretty some some pretty interesting price activity for you know, there's a lot of discovery going on, bezel. So that must be the bigger players because it wouldn't be down 5% just if the late public were you know, I think that's bigger players when exiting you think Yes, I believe for the move that we had in Apple yesterday and remember something, you have to realize that Apple is in three of the four major indices. So a large futures sell off is going to trigger some selling in some of these big names, Apple, Microsoft, you've got Salesforce in three of the major indices. So those names are going to come under pressure during these times. So that that can't be helped right because the future and electronic trading, they're going to be weakness, but Apple was weaker than I thought it would be yesterday. But now with the PPI number coming out today, with the 10 year yield going back to 2, 2.86 so far this morning, it was 3.1 at the beginning of the week battle. So I know it's a catastrophic move. Remember when we were younger battle and you used to go to the bond market and note market for lack of volatility. Now they're becoming some of the more volatile products out there as interesting move all over the board. That's what I've been talking about that the tradition as far as my memory is concerned over the decades is that when major stocks become volatile in in stock market parlance that means going down, usually money migrates on the volatility of stocks into the so called safety of bonds. This time we did not see it right. I agree completely. And I wonder if that's why the dollar is so strong. I wonder if the US dollars becoming the ultimate risk off asset because in an interest rate rising environment, you can't bleed a bond because let's face it, if you're in your basic 6040 stocks and bond or bond in stock portfolio, both of those are getting hit. So where do you go for protection? It looks like either cash or the US dollar bansal. Kevin, are you able to stay for a little bit off to the next day or do you have to go? Of course, you can stay great. I'd love to ask you about what you're going to be talking to your your clients about this afternoon. I'll be right back with Kevin X folks to Dow. The futures are down 97. And I, this is Basil champion. If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my goal report. The goal report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee. So you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the goal report with coverage of gold, silver bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the goal report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tiger's Den. You can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first of its kind program, the Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. In another few seconds, but we have Kevin Hings on the line. Kevin, in your program today, could you tell us what you're going to be talking about? This is a noontime eastern. That's 11 o'clock your time in Chicago, right? Right, exactly. Well, normally we would go through earnings at this time of the year. But we find ourselves in that chasm between when the really high profile stocks come out just a few weeks ago. And then before when we get into next week, the second half of earnings season, we really start to get into retail. So we'll start to look at some of the retail names and trade some of those, some of the names coming out next week. We're in the process right now of figuring out exactly what we're going to trade today, Basel, but it will probably start looking at some of the names that are coming out with earnings next week in terms of retail names. So it's always a great time when we get to the retail segment of earning season, that second half. So it'll be really interesting to see how this plays out. Now there's names after the close today affirm the buy now pay later company. But you know, those are coming under a lot of attack. And they're just not turning out to be the popular names that we thought. So we'll take a look at some of the economic data. The PPI will look at the WASDE report, some of the grain markets, and then we'll look at some of these retail names coming out with earnings next week, Basel. So that's very interesting because in the retail sector, retail was actually holding so well. If you look at the RTH index, right up until April, went to 190, then at retail ETF, which has 20% Amazon, and then it's now down at 157. If you look at the XRT, which is the S&P retail, which is equal weighted, it's gone from the 104 area to right now it's trading at 63. And yet within that, there are a couple of retails that kind of didn't know that this was a bear market and have done pretty well. So that makes it really interesting for you, I'm sure. Yeah, I mean, you know, retail's been strong and held in there for a while, because the US consumer was so strong, all the retail numbers were still doing very well. And the US consumer who, you know, makes up about 67 to 70% of this economy has been out there spending money and savings were up. Now they're starting to come down. So we'll see how the retail investor is faring over the last few months over the last quarter, at least. That's great. So just to sum it up, the show is at noon for us on the East Coast. And you have, so this is a TD America, this is basically the show that you discuss how to use options, how to use them as both protection and to use them in various ways. And I know the way that you structure them often changes. Anything you can add to that? Yeah, what we try to do is educate retail traders on using options to either hedge your trading, your remember, if you have long term stock holdings, you can hedge with them. We look at how to initiate new trades using options be a instead of buying stocks, maybe buying options for a bullish or bearish strategy. We just try to give people alternatives to use, like, you know, let's say, if you want to trade Amazon, well, most retail traders can't buy 100 shares of Amazon right now. We teach them how to trade Amazon in a bullish posture using options to help them trade for using less capital for same directional trades, Basil. So basically what you're giving them the chance to put far less money to work with the results in the direction that they would like to anticipate this stock of tradeable going. Exactly. We lean on probabilities. And we lean on, you know, high probability trades that use option decay in your favor. And every trade we do, Basil, is a risk defined trade. We never do a trade that has unlimited amounts of risk. So we always control the risk that is always impressed me as something that you do very articulately. And you emphasize it because people in the options market, you don't really want to make mistake. It's very specific. And if you do it in a very specific way, there is an outcome that you have a lot more control over. Exactly right. Controlling your risk is the most important and it's frankly the biggest mistake that uneducated option traders make. We try to bridge the gap between undereducated and educated and bring you along from being a beginning trader to intermediate to advanced. And we take you along. We know all the strategies. We try to fit the right strategy to the right situation. Well, thank you so much for holding on over the break. That was fabulous. And I look forward to sometimes speaking to you soon and have a great rest of the week. Thanks for having me on, Basil. Have a great day. Thank you. Bye, Kevin. So folks, don't forget 12 o'clock. I mean, this is, it's just an opportunity. Let me just check. I want to give you the exact title here. This is TD Ameritrade, Think of Swim with Kevin Hinks and Tom White. So listen to that. It's really such an educational show. I love it because it's discussed in a way that articulates for you, especially if you know, just a little bit about options in a way that makes the choices so much clear. And if you're fresh to it, then it's an education itself. It's really important. All right, let's get back to the market. Dow's down 307. S&P's down 45. So the selling is intense. What we're looking at in this particular instance, let me now I can run the numbers. So we're looking at the Dow did have a little bit of a bounce off the intraday low. Now it's giving that back. It's the Dow itself. Let me see the low is at 31512. We're just a little bit off that. We're above it at 40 points above that. We're going to this acceleration mode now. So I have three scenarios, which are outlined for my subscribers. Number one is that any rally at this particular point, just I should say one, two, three, but it's not in order. I'm just saying these are the way I'm looking at the markets. Any rally early on fails. And even tomorrow, Friday, it's a lousy day. And over the weekend, all the headlines used to use barons as a market, but now we got the different medias. But the headlines talk about the stock market having its worst system is worth that. And it just exacerbates an intense desire to sell. And Monday we get something. I don't know if it's I would not like to even think of it as a crash scenario. But it's a scenario that says watch out Monday or Tuesday could be really ugly. And then we could have a kind of a washout. I mean, if you talk about a washout, my biggest qualm here is that when you look at a Microsoft, a Microsoft you look at that monthly chart of the spectacular move that it's had. If you're looking at everything else that's going on, this is in the late stages of the of its bull run. And therefore, it could have more to come to 53. It could go down to two 30s. It could even go down to this whole cluster of of digestive phase before it broke out in September 2020, 232 even to the 196. I don't want to talk about it right now. It's going to 196. I'm just saying that's kind of the scenario we're in with the big caps, especially the doubt type big caps that have waited and waited and waited and held so well. Like Kevin was talking about Apple Apple Apple Apple Inc. Just a consumer electronic software online services, big leg G to the downside could be an alternate count. And here we are down six and 140 in Apple. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value, or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to Tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Hi, guys, we're back, Basel Chapman sitting in for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Morning Market Kickoff Show. We're looking at Apple down 5 at 141.16. Now we've got the big caps putting some pressure on the Dow, but at the same time, this is so interesting. Almost every day, if you've been long, you'll be short, you have to take immediate real quick profits because it will reverse as steeply to the downside. Generally, the market's been going down, but these intraday moves have been really vicious. I mean, we've seen almost one week moves in hours this past week. So the question now is, where did we get some kind of a low that you can feel if you want to put it into two stages? Where would the first stage be to put in a buy signal? And where would the second stage be? Is that even the way to do it or to wait for that V shape turnaround? And as I say, at this rate, if we have a lousy Friday, we could get that Friday into Monday over the weekend, where just the news headlines just says, get rid of everything. And then on Monday or maybe Tuesday, but I'd have to say it's Monday, you would get some kind of a turnaround that says, now we can have at least a 10 day to a three week rally maybe into early June. And then we got to be careful again, because I looking at the rotation into the big caps of the Dow, and I have to tell you, a stock that is new to the Dow, that to me is just an absolute shocker is salesforce.com. I understood, I've discussed it on my show before, with the whose name I always forget with the CEO, the well, the CEO invariably talks about how great the how great the company is and we've gone from two billion to a trillion or billion or billion, whatever it is, to four and it and it's usually correct. This is my thing about hubris is that when you don't deserve, you talk about something you don't deserve. That's when it comes back and smacks you on in the nose. But it always felt like, yeah, it's okay. He has a right to talk because he does so well. But over the last year, I've noted how often he's not talking about any of thank you about his company as much as he's talking about social aspects. And my thinking is, whenever a company builds, and that's what they did, they built this incredible building, I think it was San Francisco, and it coincided within months of one of its major tops, and then it continued to pull back sharply and then went higher. But when the focus is diffuse, and that's my my big thing here with with Tesla, Tesla trading down 31 to their 703. Let me just check this out to see if that's not for me now, not for me right now. Whenever the focus is, for instance, when you think of Elon Musk, you're thinking of someone who's totally focused and the tech sector is really where he's good at. And he's good at these huge projects, taking the size of a hanger. I mean, people start off in the basement, he never started off in a basement. I mean, for the big jobs for Tesla, and for his space, space company. Basically, these are huge, just the hanger alone is in the amount of money spent. But when when you start to go into other fields, when you write a book about something, it just, it takes away from that focus. And that's the reason why I think that Musk is going to follow in the footsteps of Benioff, lost the focus. And that's why I think CRM, which I still think is a great company, has just gone from 311 to 157. So you're more than kind of half. Yeah, that's like some of them, not like some of them that have been cut in 60, 70, 80 percent. But this is something that's very serious. And to answer doubt stock, that's the other thing. So Tesla I think is in the in the same category. So let me do about my three scenarios. The first scenario is that between now and Monday, you're just going to see lower highs and low lows. Nothing serious because it's constantly this buying that comes back. And it doesn't look like the market is down so badly. But in should in today, it could be huge. And that just continues that even Monday isn't the big sell. If it just continues, we might have a bigger rally a two, three day rate, but you keep making lower lows and lower highs looking very much like some of the stocks like, let's just choose a stock. Let's go to maybe Shopify. I hope this is not going to be used as an example. I'm just saying lower lows and lower highs. But here's another company that everybody was doing everything fantastically going into the high of 1762 trading a little bit lower here at 329. I would call that a major self. So that's the scenario. The other scenario is we have some kind of a rally today that gets us close to unchanged. Tomorrow there's an attempt to rally but we close lousy. I don't know what lousy means, but it just doesn't feel good at all. And then the news comes out over the weekend. Oh, bear market this bear market that and we get that major sell off and we get some kind of another big internal low and then we have to wait for residual lows. And that comes on Monday or I couldn't usually it's Monday. We're gonna be a Tuesday. That's a scenario. And the third scenario is that there's a rally now without the volatility index giving me the kind of message that I want, which is screaming above the 3752 high of the 8th of March where just everything looks just horrible. This goes even higher, but it's more the sentiment of the market place. It's not the technical sentiment, but the market sentiment. And that gives you a pretty serious VIX index top that I put a note you and say whatever it is rates or Russia, whatever it is, and I'll put a note and then all of a sudden you come up on that. And two weeks later, the VIX is down in the 2726 area. So those are three scenarios. The most favorable one would be to get some kind of a massive sell off into Monday morning and we start fresh. And then all of a sudden we talk about wheat. I'm going to do this in my show, but coming up the target conditions are wheat, which is way off. It's high. We're talking about soybeans, which is office high, not way off, but off it's high. We're talking about corn, which is a little bit off it's high, but they start to come down, ameliorate the tension of the commercial products, these absolutely desperately needed throughout our production line. But certainly the commodities that are so important include sugar. Sugar right now is trading way down to 20.45 fish was the high back in mid April, early April. And now it's at the 200 period exponential moving average of 18.43. So that's kind of what I wanted to give you a scenario that I'm looking at here. Where do I get the kind of buy signal as the ones that we've had before March the 20th, 23rd of 2020 in the Dow? We still hold that long position. We got that major low on the 6th of March of 2009. That kind of where you buy and hold and you can you can trade in between, but you really want to keep your core position. That's going to be the big question. And I suspect that on over this weekend, certainly I'll be talking about that in my overview, my video for subscribers in my overview on Saturday, I suspect that we getting way more clues. And the biggest clue is Apple trading a little bit better now just down for Microsoft trading down for a 256 gold and sacks trading down 271 and 298. And that's going to be very important to me. Well, that I heard I heard the break then I didn't hear the break earlier on. That's a chap in city for Tommy O'Brien. I'll be right. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN. You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 830 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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Larry will delve deep into the ABCD trading pattern, explaining how to structure your trading day, the times most likely to generate signals, which signals to ignore and how to use the pattern to mitigate risk. In this all day five hour live trading webinar, take a seat by Larry's side as he trades the market's real time, including the Dow and S&P 500 E mini crude oil, natural gas, gold, treasury bonds, wheat and soybeans, the Euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar yen and more. If you've ever wanted to get inside the mind of a market master, you cannot miss this live trading webinar. To sign up today, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Hello, it's Patrick I've been sitting here for Tommy O'Brien. This is the morning market kickoff show hour. That's I should say it's not Tommy's show because only Tommy can do his show. He does a great job mixing the technicals and the fundamentals. Really what I wanted to talk about is in my show coming up, the Tiger Technicians Hour, this gives me an opportunity because I did tell subscribers I'll be doing the show today from 9 to 11 a.m. So this covered a chunk of stuff that I really wanted to get out. And I have just a huge list of stocks that people have been asking about. And I said I'd get to it. And today I do want to get to it. So that I'll be doing in my show coming up. Don't forget just coming Tuesday, all day webinar, Larry Perzevento need I say more Larry Perzevento, all day webinar. You don't want to miss that. Always, always a treat and something that you'll learn from fabulous. So this is what I want you to do because we just about to wrap up this particular segment for the final hour of this 9 to 11. Let me just do this quickly. The Dow is trading down 197 has come back from below. And this is what I mean about the longs and the shorts. I suspect that in today, I said to subscribers, there should be some kind of a rebound. It's the close that's going to be important. Is there worry about tomorrow's jobs report? Whatever the report is at 830 the economics report. And then there's a sell-off for the last hour. But in the meantime, back in the ranch, what's really important about this is that you constantly see buying coming in. Instead of just being red candles ugly all the way through with a huge candle at the end of the day, you see intraday bounces and then make another low and then whatever happens happens. Have a great rest of the day. See you in a few minutes. Go keep going. I'll keep going. I thought that I heard the music. Sorry about the silence in radio. It's just not good at all. So here we go. Let me just finish this up and say that within the context of the VIX index, let's just go there. The vi vi x dot x because suddenly just keeps coming in. So with that said, let me go here and I hope I hear the music because I don't know what happens. It did come and then it went away. The VIX index at 34 36. If it climbs to the height today is 34 76. If it starts to trade in the 35s, this market really will start to decline sharply. But if it suddenly slips under 39.93 and gets to the 39.93 30s as the market as the Dow only comes back to a minus 42 or minus 32 and the S&P actually comes back to a minus eight. I would say, you know what, that's telling me a lot about buying these sellers. I thought about when I get back from.