 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white And welcome all to another excellent edition of the power trading hour as we Start off the show we're up 41 points on the S&P cash Dows up 126 nas except 232 the Russell's up 7 We've got crude oil Back to around 100 bucks 153 cents We've got gold down 13 at 1844 silver off 27 cents at 21 55 What else do we have in 10 year? Just a hair under three two point 97 I think probably the thing that everybody should have been watching today and I didn't hear a lot about it Was the TLT? it's up percent and It was kind of up but what at a high of almost and just a hair under 17 117 I Think everybody was kind of look at it way overshot the market As I said on the charts 118 should have probably held I think there was just a lot going on here many people speculating both Mental midgets and people that I respect that there was something broken in the market What we were waiting for was a few things. I want to thank Janet Yellen For giving me an opportunity to go long today By spouting some stuff that I don't think she even believes but I guess you know when you represent other folks I guess when you're like an attorney and your client killed somebody you're you kind of expected to lie You may know the truth or expect you know the truth, but man when you're a bad liar I Just felt sorry for Janet Yellen is spouting off stuff that was on Surface and down deep both just ridiculous But I think there was a little bit of combination of that and people waiting for an additional move in the markets for margin calls And you know that once we kind of made it past that and it looked like Probably not going to get any this afternoon markets starting to turn there were a lot of Signals that the market was getting ready to turn and it was foreshadowing it Probably nothing better than the almost fork tick on the AmEx yesterday for the trend And one of the best indicators I've seen for a while. There's a lot of reasons why but There's not that many stocks that actually Trade on the on the AmEx almost all of it is one big Various ETF one way or the other but with everybody kind of shunning from actually trading stocks and trading sectors It was a to see it at four yesterday or almost four was a pretty good indication that that the People that Were ready to throw the baby without with the bathwater were Doing that yesterday Options as I said have been kind of bullish I did write I think in the newsletter Was it today or yesterday? Hey, I forget But we were kind of at the levels that we were kind of far off on what option market makers predicted That was kind of the equivalent of the hundred year flood Now hundred year floods are supposed to only happen every hundred years. They actually happen a lot more statistics Isn't that good? It's kind of like a betting on a giant Asteroid hitting the earth and wiping us all out Well, we'll all be dead so we won't be able to write much about it if it does happen But if things don't happen very often very hard to handicap. I had to think just if I would have bet If I would have bet on the 81 horse on on Saturday and I had to think it may you know, I know I've read a lot of books and I've had people approach me and say, hey, will you help me? Become a bigger trader and I always do a couple of things and people never do it and Then I know that I'm just wasting my time these folks may become good traders But there's no way I'll be able to help them the first is that I assigned three or four books for them to read I can't sing the praises of fooled by randomness high enough Although I do not agree everything that's in there. I do agree a great deal with this thought process The problems that he Has in this book is all about A very broad brush that all traders are the same He was trading with three billion dollars I'm not trading quite with that just two point nine billion dollars But his three billion dollars that he had to trade with when he made his bones, I guess Is that a mob saying he made his bones? Or is that like a general saying? Yeah, I do digress. Anyway, when he made his his bones he was a You know, he had three billion dollars in George Soros's money. First of all, it wasn't his But I love the fact that he that he disdained people that was supposed to be all smart and Even back then knew how stupid these folks were not only stupid But they were stupid about their ignorance about being stupid And I brought up the book several times over last month or so maybe two months about Kathy Woods and just how It's not a mathematical book, but it is about options, but it is one of those things where he I mean Yeah, I think he wrote the book in 2002 or three But man, you got to go in there when he talks about the three different traders one who just keeps on doubling down and doubling down in a bull market and then they all blow up and the question is How is that not just what Kathy would did? All she did was find the biggest outliers get more people to invest in it and push it higher Eventually when the tide goes out What does she do? Well, she's not the genius that everybody thought and that's really The cracks of probably the first third of the book as he walks through different traders He's got a great part of the book that I love Where he's talking about going into meetings just before he he actually made I don't know like 20 billion out of the 3 billion he had By betting on way out of the money Puts and calls into the 87 market late 87 I think that's what it was anyway, he keeps getting dragged into meetings and Talk more about it when we get back Are they stupid or the page chills? I don't know. I don't think I think a lot of people make predictions on stuff when they don't see it well Because like they have to Be back Are you grinding in the market? But seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier learn to take The path of least resistance with David white's powerful trading newsletter David white is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades support and resistance Define the ranges at which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David white is able to find the path of least resistance David white's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily Before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David white's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee Take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a Frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive Informational edge you need to succeed These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free With our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the World from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors Free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 As we return continue my story will get into the rest of it Just hey We're gonna see a lot of this back and forth. I think I had a good question in the email and Yeah, I think we've probably You know, could we get a retest we could I don't think we're going to but I do think that that we've got a Low in place and maybe that low is in place To the three-day weekend at the end of the month So we shall see and I think that Happened Not too long ago Anyway, I was get back to my story from the book because it's always interesting He'd be dragged down to these meetings before he became a big Big shot on Wall Street By just from reputation Anyway, Nassim Tlaib gets dragged into these meetings and they ask him what he thinks and he says I think 80% chance the markets going higher. I think it goes maybe two three four percent higher But there's a 20% chance that it drops 20% this is remember. This is before the big crash in 87 and He says so I'm gonna buy some more way out of the money puts And they go, but you think that 80% chance it's going higher and he goes, yeah Yeah, but I think that there's a 20% chance it goes extremely Much lower and I'm gonna buy these out of the money Puts because guess what they're improperly priced If I if that actually does happen 80% of the time and 20% of the time I'm gonna make a absolute God-awful amount of money and You know every time they bring it up, but the market's going higher and you just buy more puts and Pretty soon. They didn't invite him back to any of the meetings where they all were talking about how the Market was only gonna grow to the sky like Jack and the beanstalk but eh always interesting to see The Countertrend guy that doesn't agree with everybody on Wall Street still makes money now There's that's not the only way to make money people are good traders there You don't always have to trade against the grain of the market But what it did Really drive home for me is waiting bit for the big fat pitch and also That your trades better be asymmetric that is you better have your wall your back to the wall You don't have to trade all the time and you know what you can You can just you're not somebody on Wall Street that has to have all his money invested You can wait and tell that big fastball comes down The plate and you know what it's a home run basis loaded Not a bad thing to be Anyway, we'll keep an eye on the market, but like I said, I think why you might have some back and forth here I think we're pretty good into At least the end of the week and probably into the 20th 20th for options expiration In fact, I was kind of sure that this is all lining up. So I scheduled my vacation yesterday for the 23rd through the I think it's through the To is it 31st anyway, I think it's I come back the day after Memorial Day So yeah, I think I think we're probably gonna have a lot of chop, but Markets are pretty good at not making people wait. I always love what? Warren Buffett says about the markets a mechanism for Trading money between those that are patient and those that are in patient or impotent If you get that joke So it's not something that I'm gonna worry about too much But I think as many times as I've said that you can be in a bear market And the market can go up for a very long time before the next big move comes down but Now there were pretty good signs that it was getting ready to set up Janet Yellen had to go out and say some stuff that I don't think she even believed Although I don't think she's that bright But You know what you defending the indefensible. I think a lot of people kind of looked at that and thought and Maybe sold just a little bit more. Maybe it was something else. Maybe it was market gas Maybe there just wasn't enough be no or Integestion message Medicine for all of it, but at some point the market will find a low It will rally it will rally for a while. It will rally a lot longer Then the shorts will have patients though short they'll short they'll short and they'll get blown out and get blown out and get blown out and Really the only thing I've ever seen that actually says when the next bear market leg starts is when the short give up because as long as they continue to short they have to cover and They tend to give at least half of all the money that they made back in the big move down trying to catch every high There'll be a pretty good signal when we make the next high. I suspect But that's it now. Is it gonna be easy? No every bounce is gonna be shorted Everybody's gonna believe that every time we go higher the thing to do is gonna be short it's gonna be the end of the world and They'll do that until they give up and then the next move that will be not the end of the world But probably a significant move lower unless policies are changed Which if Janet Yellen's testimony this morning was any indication the ability to To reject reality is still there So at least for this administration you just have to wonder about doubling down on being wrong At least on the economic side of what's going on And try something different, but it doesn't sound like we're doing that But even then you'll find some lows and you'll find some highs and we'll do that anyway Um Independent thinkers doers are the Let's stone him. He doesn't believe as we do Okay Well, let's do a little bit of history And then we will move into questions Which we have piling up at path at tfnn.com On this day in 1894 the wireless boom is born and we're not talking 5g or 4g We're talking about Marconi himself who sends a radio wave three-quarters of a mile Three years later the Marconi company will successfully communicate ship to shore Over a distance of 12 miles and Marconi's work leads to the commercialization and Pluripharation of most of radio technology we know today. It was pretty much in the late 19 I think about 1918 That we really had radios based on tubes working well by 1927 the biggest stock ever and I know we talk about big tech stocks now They're all pikers. There was a stock It was the biggest stock ever as a percentage of market. How many people though? That happens to me If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU HUI GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting TFNN.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today TFNN has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Den hosted at discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tiger's Den You can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs And join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other Tigers and Tigris's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the Tigers Den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any traders methodology Using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci Formation setups including Gartley's ABC's Butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when Scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day Unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com And we fade out the music In the 1920s we think about big tech today there are only a couple of big tech companies back then but the biggest one of them all was RCA and Motorola was the second one because they made the power supply That could plug in the wall for the RCA radio And yeah, it was the biggest thing that anybody had ever seen and of course a magnitude change in technology Is almost always accompanied with a magnitude order in change of money But that was the big one of the time back then Okay Okay question about KTOS Which what do I have here? Let's go ahead and pull that up and take a look Okay, why do I remember that say that symbol? Maybe I'll know Crackers defense security solutions What I consider a rejection of lower price Yes But again a lot of these stocks have been coming down Everybody if you're all thinking that we're gonna get an instant V bottom. I think you're fooling yourself Every move higher is going to be resisted a lot of these stocks, especially poorly capitalized stocks Are probably gonna have more of a you bottom in the next week I don't think you should expect a lot of them But almost all of them probably the big move up later next week It's gonna be a couple of days Maybe you go above the three by three you pull back it again with light volume and then you go higher again This is a bear market Anything that really moves they're gonna shoot it just assuming that it's gonna go lower and Once the short interest is built up on it if it's not going lower It's probably going a fairly strongly higher as the shorts have to get out of it Remember as we get into late in the month not just in options expiration on the 20th for the monthly We're gonna have a lot. We're probably gonna have the biggest decline in volume I suspect the last week going into that three-day weekend So Yeah, a lot of these things have they make making a bottom is not the same as going higher But I do think that just overall we have so many people piled into some of these big ETFs That we're gonna see the highly capitalized stocks that have huge amounts of cash that can buy back their own shares Kind of feed the shorts that have stayed too long to the party a little bit of a painful beating. I Think it's probably the nicest way that I can say it, but we shall see anyway Cracos defense security solutions Is there a bottom? Yes, would I be buying it? No, I want a lot of proof out here on individual ETFs I mean individual stocks And sectors before I go to the sectors To the Which you prefer a small cap or small cap growth or no small cap. Well, I Like I said, I think this is all about who's gonna run and where they're gonna run Are you gonna run the stocks that need lots of cash like biotech? Are you gonna run the stocks that don't need any cash that sales are probably gonna be fine and If you're on Wall Street, it's not what's gonna do best it's what everybody else thinks is gonna do best as God, what's the guy's name? I'll think about it in a second. He had the thing he called the Beauty contest I'll think of his name here in a minute and that is as traders. You're not trying to Get the best stock You're trying to get the stock that everybody else thinks is gonna be the best Because to go higher they need to buy it not you you buying it probably doesn't do much of anything But you don't have to pick the the prettiest in the in the contest you have to pick what everybody else thinks is the prettiest in the contest and My guess is what's his name? I'll think about it in a little bit he also said When I change when the facts change I change my mind. What do you do sir? Can't think of it in a moment 877-927-6648 okay, that's the first one. Let's go on to other ones Goldman Sachs They've got problems of their own most of it was I think they flushed Six billion dollars down the toilet in Russia and not a lot of discussion about that I think maybe they wrote it off. You do have at least the first signs of some loads out here You do have a little bit lighter volume on this last leg from April 21st You do have lighter volume compared to the retest on April 7th You really need to close above 324-32 so you got a long ways for this thing to prove itself But you had a high volume low It got tested on lighter volume it still closed lower than that lighter volume 308 You're trading out at what 305 first sign would be a close above 308 then you need to get above 324 You know bigger trading range Could be 330 335 ish probably where real resistance comes in on the Goldman Sachs. I Think I do I still have that I'll look for it in the next break, but There was a guy that made a cartoon about the Goldman Sachs. Maybe I'll come find it if I still have it Okay, Richard says great call and welcome back Now for a few weeks I answered that Yeah, I answered that one already and we have that one, okay Let's go on to some of the stocks that not everybody's talking about we had Kind of a bigger low in 3d systems earnings out gap down mostly just I think because people like gapping down Stocks and beating on these things, but it's done nothing but go higher pretty much since the open out here No sign yet that you should buy it, but you know it consolidates around ten bucks I think it could do well another one in this 3d space is direct metal This one kind of the end of the world. That was always a flaky stock pushed by a lot of the Robin Hooders Never really understood why they thought the thing was so great It seemed flaky at the beginning for me. I never bought it But a lot of stocks and the end of the bull market We're trading that way Let's take a look at the Wall Street darling, which is SSYS Which did have a little sympathy? Pains out here today But it could be worse again a lot of these stocks that need cash I'm going to say a you bottom is kind of your best outcome Couldn't even go lower again We'll make a big distinction between stocks that have lots of cash lots of income And those that don't I think the index is going to crawl up on the backs of big tech and And companies with lots of cash I probably not gonna see a lot in these stocks until they do some work and Get some consolidation out of the way that baby You're gonna get them kind of three tail in right before the market tops yet again Probably somewhere around the end of this month. 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That's Tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV as we Question about how people have been shorting CELH, which I haven't looked at And the big problem I see on this one Is that you just had too much volume today? So again a lot of these stocks that aren't big names or have 100 billion dollars sitting in some bank account somewhere Or that are not larger than the any Gross domestic product under the top five countries in the world They don't have to work a lot to worry about this actually doesn't look too bad What you really dislike those the volume will last few days high volume lows are not lows unless they get tested So can you get a bounce? Yes. Will it get retested? Yes. What do you want? You want to this thing to? Bounce a little bit come back down and test the low on about 400,000 shares and you can certainly get that and get the low It's just there's no way of saying it's in yet other than it didn't close below the previous low It's probably gonna have more volume Then the big low back here on January 28th that had 1.6 million shares As far as daily shorting it is in the 20% range every day Going back almost two weeks and even then but it's been yeah, 20% every day The big day was on the 14th of April. Let's go back and look and see What went on that day 14th? April I don't know what was going on that day, but certainly or the 18th Now it's the 14th We know I'm out here so much shorter than living daylights out of this thing right in here And it went sideways for another 10 days and then gave it up But hey, what can you say doesn't look as bad as one would think? At the same time There's a difference between making low and going higher. I think there's better fish in the sea again If they everybody hadn't heard about it and they don't have a load of cash And I mean by load I mean billions My guess is that they're probably gonna underperform the rest. Let's take a look at some of the others out here Doesn't matter how many shares are short right now you need other people to pick it up Microsoft Does look like it's put in a low Does look like maybe that low is going to be on lighter volume Though the big number out here for a while has been February 24th low that was 271 52 on Microsoft you got into that with 46 million shares and bounced on earnings you pulled back here. Yeah, is that earning? Yeah, it was earnings You pulled back you did break it one more time. You didn't increase the volume You did to match the volume of March 8th, but you didn't get to the 57 million shares So you're back in and closing back in today and again 25 million shares. So It's gonna look like you had a pretty good thrust down today The volume didn't come in we're not closed the day had no ver curly But it certainly does look like you've got something there now on the long term You went up on about the same energy you went down All that tells you is that at best you're in a trading range So I'm not saying that anything's out there resistance pretty much comes in at about If you get through 277 you're really probably talking about 290 and I think this thing's probably in that kind of trading range now Apple also out there Earnings tonight. Okay That was on Celsius I don't see a whole lot out there a lot of shorts, but that'd be it Okay Let's go through the rest here and see what else we have Okay, okay Okay, let me get that with that there was go back. Okay, so we looked at Microsoft. Let's take a quick look at Nvidia I have a feeling a lot of people Went nuts yesterday After the bell, I don't know what was going on But there were all kinds of prints at $230 for Nvidia going through they cleaned it up I don't think anything actually went through on that, but there's a big gap there at 230 I thought it was hysterical why it was going on I saw some I Think it was I can't remember what it was on It was on one of the boards stock boards or something where everybody was freaking out They were dubious or spurious spurious better word for it Takes it to 30, but I thought it was kind of hysterical didn't do much Did try to go lower today. I would have liked to see in the little lighter volume if you want to bounce But again, a lot of these stocks have been hammered 206 is probably resistance which is still an awful good trade on this My guess is you're gonna get up to about two. Yeah, probably 203 That's where real resistance comes in about 206 Probably a brick wall at least in the short term, but you can get back above 200 before The market turns back lower. Let's take a look at some others AMD Okay To-to-to Someone says Please tell him you're short not long if you are long sell now, please Well, no No, thank you. I am long and proud of it. I'm using options. So my My Downside is limited But yeah, I think we've got a bounce for a while. I still believe it's a bear market I do believe that you're if you're going to be committed to the bear side of it That maybe you should go on vacation take some aspirin and wait until the market goes upwards The risk reward is better To be short than long so I will Kindly disagree with you and no, I won't take my bounce money now There's a lot more to it and I've got all the signs out there Nobody has a crystal ball. I do have a crystal brain though My brain sees lots of things No crystal ball, but a crystal brain and my crystal brain says that your email should be discarded I think I have a 70 or 80 percent chance of being successful in my trade But I am not going to go to the grave with it. I know that there's going to be significant upsides in bear markets and A lot of times they think you a lot of cash. We'll be back in a minute Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the Right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be TFNN educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Just visit the front page of TFNN.com catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN as we come back Didn't really talk too much about AMD but What you have on it here Let's get in a little closer chart out here We're retesting the previous low. You came down with far too much volume yesterday You got a little bounce out of here today yesterday was probably then in the words of Wycoff a selling climax That doesn't mean a low you went into a low of their 83 million Shared yeah 83 million shares from April 27th with 145 you didn't break it. You did bounce out here But again, let's make a distinction about stocks that have to do a lot of work before they go back higher and Stocks that have tons of cash on the side don't have a lot of problems with Imperial entanglements i.e. to the Chinese invading their country and Yeah, what else can you say about it? I think there's a lot more To go along with Nvidia and AMD. We just don't have that much another one was a JD. Was that it? Which looked a little bit better out here you've got the problem though again you had 22 million shares yesterday You had 10 million shares back on April 21st You did gap up on 60 million that was back on March 17th So you probably have some level of support, but I'm not getting along those stocks I want stocks that actually if I'm gonna play individual equities. I Want stocks that tested previous lows and lighter volume? Okay, someone bought snap Take a quick look at that mr Zack Yeah, again a lot of these stocks have broken through support gaps and everything else I do kind of like the lighter volume out here. I'm gonna say there are better stocks Probably out there made better signals, so we'll talk about those tomorrow Be there be square so when you can not when you have to we'll see you tomorrow same back channel same back Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most