 Before opening the question to the floor, let me ask one question to all, let's say, panelists. The question is that if renewable energy becomes the mainstream, and certainly the demand for fuel moves away from fossil fuel, regardless of what Mr. Trump is pushing, and demand for oil, demand for gas declines, and the oil price getting from 80 dollars per barrel to 8 dollars, for example. Just for the sake of our brainstorming or scenario analysis as such, does this low price of oil certainly impact Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Middle East, or Russia, and also the United States of the shared production? Does this kind of new world with renewable energy mean more peace in the Middle East, the other way around? More war, more battle, because of, let's say, battle for the diminishing returns or profit? What do you think, Oribia? Just it's clear that the oil consumption will continue to increase, and yeah, but it will happen in 40 or 50 years from now, so I'm afraid that in between there will be many, many revolutions in the Middle East. Well for renewable energy to become mainstream, I mean here again you will need, these are intermittent technologies, so you will need a lot of gas, a lot of storage, et cetera, as we mentioned, right? But I'm willing to play the game. It really depends on when that will happen. So if you assume in 40, 50 years time, I mean, a lot of these countries, I'm hoping will have time to implement some of the reforms that they have engaged, but here again, I mean, it's very difficult to put all the countries in the same basket, because I think your second graphic, Tanaka-san, showed how the regions are evolving, the countries are becoming importers, exporters at the same time, and being exposed to oil and gas prices totally differently. So I would not like to simplify it by putting just one, or giving just one statement, but I think for some countries, there will be an imperative to push to some reforms more extensively than others. Do you think Saudi Arabia ... I thought I was not talking in the ... I said it like three times. I am not ... I am very stubborn and sticky to ... So what was the question? Will Saudi Arabia survive with $8 of oil? And when? When? 2030? Yes. Okay. Good. Shabat too, Dr. Cooper. I'm with Olivier. I don't want to play the game. If we can play that game, we can imagine we have a magic wand. I'm with Olivier. I don't want to play the game. If we can play that game, we can imagine we have a magic wand. Just to facilitate what we want, that's science fiction. So I'm not willing to play your game. Or if you want to play that game, I'm allowed to put in some other things as well. Like what? A magic wand. Quite at the relevant countries. Keep peaceful. For the magic wand, for the peace. Just because my exercise of this kind of volatility, many companies are making the scenarios for preparing for the unprepared situation, very much volatile situation. So yes, science fiction is true, but without thinking this kind of very unpredictable situation, we are in trouble. 35 decibels of barrel rather than $8 of barrel. What do you think about the 30 decibels of barrel? I think Saudi Arabia will survive $35 with difficulty, but it will survive. 35 is very easy for Saudi Arabia. I think production costs is much cheaper. And 8 is impossible to imagine without a magic wand to go along with it. Well, let's see in 2030 what the oil price would be. I mean, you know, who knows. And this is a difficult thing, but without thinking about unprepared situation, Japan faced such a big mess after the crisis in earthquake and nuclear. So unprepared situation is very, very important. Do you want to play the game, Masuda-san? I think there is one condition. If I may go along with this, what you said. When is the director of the IEA in charge of oil market? Oil price is a single digit. I got a call from Riyadh from my friends and they explained how difficult it is to survive. That said, we will be able to survive for a while. Anyway, if oil prices should go to $8 per barrel or 10, the renewable energy need another revolution. Potvoltaic is old technology. It's already 150 years old. We need revolution, the revolution, one or two, then make renewable, more sustainable and easier to provide. And probably there will be peace in the world because this integrated supply system, consumption system is more peaceful than in tibetan. So I go along with what Panak-san said. Thank you. Laila has some additional comments. Yes, before getting into your $8 figure that I think a lot of us disagree with. In my second slide, I think I showed all the different levels of costs breakdown for different countries. So before it reaches the low cost producers in the Russians and Saudi Arabia and others, you will have other countries which will be in deep trouble before that. So I don't think the industry will stay not doing anything before that happens. How about you? I play the game. And by the way, let's remember that at the end of the 90s, the oil price was one digit figure. So what seems to me as a company important is to take into account not the fact that it will be forever, but that there is cyclicality. And cyclicality is something you can play with by being counter cyclical. And I think that's part of the answer to the question saying, first, by the way, we realize that even in the two degree scenario of IEA, I mentioned 22% for oil, but it's about 50% for oil and gas. And we should not forget that in your question at the end, it's for oil and gas because these countries produce both. So and 50% of the mix under the two degree scenario, it's quite challenging to imagine that you'll get to reduce that very significantly. But even if that was the case and that happened in the past, I think that investing counter cyclicality is definitely one of the answers to the question. So you mean the total will survive? Of course. Okay. Dr. Kuber, yeah. A question of Laudislas. One of his four points or five was renewable biofuels. What do you have in mind exactly? Because the biofuels I know about, which are corn based ethanol and palm oil based fuels are terrible from a climate change point of view. So what biofuels do you have in mind as a part of a solution? The one that actually we're talking about is really the current biofuels that are being produced because that's right, that second generation, sub generation biofuels remains extremely challenging from the technological technological point of view. But I made that point because I think that's one of the areas where public policy today is helping the case, at least in terms of emissions because and and we don't see that that often on other aspects. There is some in energy efficiency where there are some mandatory objectives that are imposed by public policy. But for instance, we don't really see it on carbon pricing. So I took the example of biofuels saying, ah, at least here, there's a level of incorporation which is made mandatory. And at the end, which helps the case, even though I agree that the impact in the future of additional biofuels may remain quite limited at the scale of the challenge that we face. Thank you very much. I will open the floor to the questions. First, Don Johnston, my former boss. Thank you very much, Chair. My name's Don Johnston and I was the Secretary General of the OECD from 1969 to 2006. I had the pleasure of actually having Nebu Tanaka, our Chairman, as one of our first class directors in the organization. I'm not close enough to the mic. But I just wanted to make a few observations. I've been following this dossier for a long time. In fact, I chaired this. I think it was in Doha where you were then with Total, were you not? And Total, you made a very impressive presentation as you have. I think Total is actually probably quite exceptional in many respects. But you know, we're really talking here. I don't want to sound cynical, but I've heard the story so often, so long, going right back to 1992. Rio, and then I came to the OECD, and 1997 was the big year. That was the year of Ungas, you know, the United Nations General Session in New York, which I addressed. We heard all the terrible things that we were going to cure in the next few years. We had Kyoto, where other countries undertook, you know, we had addicts and non-addicts. And Canada, for example, undertook to reduce its emissions to 1990 levels, you know, something like 100%. In 2010, it abandoned Kyoto because it increased by 25%. And we've seen this right across the border. So you know, really, what I'd just like to say is when you get out of the discussion here, you're talking, you're talking mitigation. That means trying to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions, which we've been uniquely unsuccessful in doing, or adaptation. I don't hear enough about adaptation. I mean, the fact of the matter is, look at the world today. Look around what's happening. The four stars in the rest of the United States, in Canada, in Northern Sweden, above the Arctic Circle, the temperatures and so on. So I think you have to think in those terms. I'd like to see you talk more about adaptation, less about trying to meet these targets. Finally, it's that the people start discussing about adaptation, just as you said. Yes, that's true. Please, wait a minute. Push now. Okay, go ahead. Yes. We spoke quite a lot about long-term. Being on the market, I'm more short-term minded. And being short-term minded, I would like to have your views about the future of our different commodity prices. Of course, I understand Mrs. Ben Ali doesn't represent our Ramco, but I would like to know how much oil Saudi Ramco and Saudi Arabia can pump more in the short term. Can we reach $100 per barrel or perhaps more? We spoke much, of course, about the price of oil, but I'm also struck by the price of natural gas. Natural gas prices have never been so high since the Fukushima crisis. And it's really a long-term trend, as we spoke about, the commoditization of the LNG market. What's your view on the future? And by the way, it was said by Mrs. Ben Ali, the price of coal is pretty high. And the demand for coal, be it a steam coal or a cooking coal, is pretty high. So we are dreaming about renewables, but on a short-term basis, we are really with almost an energy crisis. Thank you. For the question, yes, please. As we are in Morocco, I would like to say that what was mentioned during the debate, that here we can confirm what we lived in this country, especially with renewables. You heard Mr. Bakuri during the lunch, but the price that we reached on the project on wind is 3 cents per kilowatt hour, 4 cents for PV. It's big power plants produced by private companies and selling to this price to the utility. So that's true. We are working to have 52 percent of our electricity capacity in 2030 from renewables. It's possible because we have anti-connections with Spain, with Algeria, soon with Portugal and Mauritania. It's also possible because we have water pumping for storage. We have also melting salt for storage in Marzazet and also batteries. We're talking about big projects, but don't forget, especially for Africa, how small projects, PV roofs, PV pumping can be used in the whole continent. And it's something that is as important as big power plants, but there's also these solutions that can be also something important. Last point, I'm hitting the Moroccan agency for energy efficiency. And I think the cheapest way, the fastest way of reaching this climate indices is through energy efficiency. We should work on energy efficiency in industry, transport, housing, public lighting, agriculture, in all those sectors we have programmed for that. So that's also as important as the big power plants. That's my observation. Thank you. Thank you. Are you from Massen? AME is the other agency in charge of energy efficiency. We have two agencies in our energy transition policies, Massen for the big power plants with renewables, and AME is the local agency for energy efficiency. Thank you. Yeah, because Mr. Makuri mentioned about this sustainable energy transmission project with the European Union, Germany, France, or Portugal. That is very interesting initiative of the Moroccans. Please go ahead. I'm Jean Rituboul, former president of Shenia Marketing. So I will advocate a little bit for gas. On the short term, I don't fully agree with what has been said just now. The price of gas in the United States, it's $3 per million BTU. So it's very cheap. And with the startup of the LNG export out of the US and with the commodization of LNG, I don't believe that the price of gas will go up. It's true that in Asia and in Europe, with the price of gas index on oil, there could be some time where these prices will remain high. But in my mind, it's very temporary in my mind. And within the next two or three years, there will be plenty of new liquefaction projects in the US which will help the gas prices to become more and more a commodity price with a world price, more and more. On the longer term, first of all, I'm not sure to fully understand Mr. Tanaka, your gas, your curve on the coast of wind. In my mind, I'm not sure that this cost will go down so fast. And as a matter of fact, today, all the renewable prices are still highly subsidized, especially in Europe. Always on the long term, if you don't build additional nuke power plants in the world, the numbers do not square without high development of natural gas. They just do not fly. So I'm not sure to understand your curve where there is a peak gas in 2035. And I'm not sure to understand that. On the storage of electricity, and this has been stressed by Mr. Cooper, battery, everybody insists about battery, I highly believe in the future of hydrogen. And you can produce hydrogen with electricity outside the peak hours. So practically, the cost of producing hydrogen can be negative or almost zero. You can use hydrogen in the fuel sale, even in the cars. Somebody has said that in the car for the mobility, you will still need battery. It's not obvious in my mind. You have a lot of technology of power to gas to use electricity to produce hydrogen and then inject hydrogen into the network of natural gas. So you have still plenty of technology which are under development and which allow natural gas to increase its market share, even if the renewables are seen as a solution for everything. Thank you for your question to my chat. Yes, the 2030 peak of gas is still that chart, the gas is increasing even with the sustainable development scenario, 450 scenario. Oil peak out very quickly around 2020, cold much earlier, but gas will continue to grow until 2030 or 2040. But slowing down if sustainable scenario or 2 degrees Celsius or 1.5 happens, because it's still carbon emission happens. By the way, we have 10 minutes more, so I'll give the floor to the panelist to answer some of the questions about price or some of the questions about gas roll. A few comments and I would like to develop a little bit the issue of the oil embargo to Iran, which is a short-term issue. First, clearly, midi adaptation was part of the Kyoto protocol and in the following cops, it almost disappeared. Now, as you said, it is quite difficult to cope with 2 degrees or 1.5 and then it's very important to consider adaptation. I understand that it will be very important part of the next cop in Poland. It's clear that they will not discuss a lot, they will not push the theme of mitigation, but I think it's a good news. Second part, what struck me when we discussed about energy is that I remind that electricity represents 20% of the problem, but 95% of the comments. And when we discuss about renewable energy, we discuss about solar and wind, but in fact, don't forget that 80% of the final energy consumption is non-electricity. A few words on the embargo. The oil embargo on Iran is one of the one important explanation of the high price now, because thanks to the decision taken by OPEC plus two years ago, the market is now almost stable in good balance, but on the top of that, there is this decision of Trump to set up an embargo against Iran. In fact, the spare capacity stocks are at low level worldwide. The spare capacity is not so high. The official figures is 2.7 million baris per day or 2.5 and around 1.8 in Saudi Arabia. And my experience at the IA is that spare capacity where you don't know exactly when will you get, when it will be possible to get this production. It may take three months, six months, or one year, because it needs, it's necessary to need some investment. So what is for me the most challenging is the reaction of Iran to this position of Trump. And this may create a mess in the golf, in the person golf. Just, I remember that the missiles of Iran have been tested on the straight of Omuz. And if there is anything which happened, it will be totally impossible to load oil in the golf of, in the person golf. I remind that the straight of Omuz, the person golfs who present, 20% of the world oil consumption and 25% of the LNG. So this may, it's not an increase of the prices. I would say nobody knows at what level it may come. We may come to $200 per barrel because there is no elasticity on the market. And also this situation of, yeah, that's the comments I wanted to make. And I have very specific views on hydrogen. I'm not a believer. I think hydrogen is the question of religion. Yeah, Japanese are very religious about hydrogen. Laila, do you have comments on the stock, I mean, spare capacity? Well, I mean, here again, first point, I'm not mandated to talk about short-term markets and Saudi Arabia's production policy. Again, second point, Olivier Aper has already made all the comments that need to be made about the spare capacity. So thank you very much Olivier for thank you so much. I mean, he always saves me in those meetings. No, but I mean, on gas, I really want to, because yes, we can be concerned about what is happening in the oil markets. And I think there was a lot of work being done for to bring those 25 countries together in the OPEC plus alliance. But there are also some concerns on the gas side because today in Europe, I mean, I agree with the points that was made on US, but today in Europe, gas prices are $3.5 million per million bit too higher than the same time last year. We don't know what's what happened this winter. We don't know if we're going to have a colder winter that average or not. So these are also, and in many of these countries, I mean, gas prices are being now reformed and linked to international gas prices as well. So that's also an aspect that I just wanted to highlight as well in the meantime. Thank you, Ray. Dr. Cooper. Well, I address mainly long-term issues, but since Iran has been raised, don't you think that the Iranian problem in quotes will be solved by China? China could take Iranian oil. It's substitutable for other kinds of oil. And China could well set up a clearing arrangement, which did not use Swift or the US dollars at all. And Chinese firms operating in the US would have a problem like Total would, but there are Chinese firms that don't operate in the US at all. So do you seriously think that Iran will not be able to export its two million barrels a day, say? What I heard on the market recently is that the bank of Kundrun Bank, which is more or less the only bank which has a kind of monopoly of relationships between China and Iran, which is owned by CNPC, has just finished accepting bills by Iran, paid either in euro or in yuan. And it is said on the market that for November, there is no Iranian oil which has been bought either by CNPC or Sinopec. That's it. Even the Chinese have problem with that rights that you Americans have with the dollar. May I remind you that it did cost 10 billion dollars to be in Pippa Ibar? Talking about November, that's just a week away. I'm not talking about November. I'm talking about the next few years and whatever happens in November as almost already happened. But if I were advising the Chinese government, I could construct a scheme that did not use the US dollar nor would it involve Sinopec or CNPC because they both have business in North America, at least in Canada. But there's a way to do it. And the question is how imaginative they and the Iranians together will be about bringing it about. And there are lots of two-way trade. It's not just oil from Iran to China, but it's Chinese goods going to Iran. And so it's basically barter with a little fluid to grease it basically. Thank you. I think the European Union invited China to join that clearing house. Is that right? I have heard that, but I don't know. Okay, let's move to Matsuda-san. Okay, just to make one comment on renewable energy. I think we talked a lot about renewable energy and storage, but obviously we need second and third revolution technology. And what we face about technical evolution is there's two types of value. One is technical value of death to make new technology to be able to be developed fully. That's one. And there's a lot of shortage of supply of financing, one. And second is financial death of value. Although there is a demonstration plan to ready to go, there's no one to invest, and there's no way to commercialize. So unless we are able to overcome all this value of death in technical development deployment, we won't be able to have revolution. But otherwise, we can't have technical revolution, which again, completely rewrite the energy scene. And IEA World Energy Outlook could be very obsolete in a few years unless they are able to do it. And we have to do that. That's my ending remark. Thank you. Thank you very much. Matsuda-san, that is left. Maybe quick comments on the price. I think short term, there are definitely some supportive fundamentals for the oil price because demand is still significant. OPEC and Russia are well lined. Then one specific element with regard to the U.S., where there are some bottlenecks of exporting shale oil by pipe. So probably until the mid next year, there will be some constraints on the U.S. market. The exports reduced from Iran, of course. And don't forget Venezuela, Libya. There are some countries which still face quite some difficulties. Not taking into account the fact that we have to keep in mind that the level of investments that have been made in the oil and gas industry has decreased very significantly by 2014-15 when the oil price collapsed. And there are some impacts that are going to be associated with that. So I think it's quite supportive on the short run, even though for me on the mid run or long term, the keyword remains volatility. Thank you very much, everybody. And I really appreciate your participation to the interesting game I raised. And I hope everybody enjoyed the discussion here.