 Week 10 was an interesting one for NFL DFS with some interesting chalk brain I was looking at the numbers from roster rates from yesterday and Things were a bit different from expected there. There were some fun comes come backs and guys like Cam Newton We got to see Russell Wilson once again Although it wasn't full Russell Wilson and unfortunately some big injuries to discuss as well We're gonna break this down for today and let you know the big takeaways from a DFS perspective welcome on into the heat Check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by branding You do love he is the managing editor of number fire calm Brandon week 10 in the books now Pretty interesting and weird slate. I would say given all the weird bloods and stuff like that. How are you doing today? I'm good. I was fully ready to start the show Kind of picking on you because I got the better of you in a lot of spots This week we played in a dynasty league We played in a redraft league our head-to-head that we do for the show Snake draft that we do with JJ Zacharyson. I Beat you in all those And I'm sure had you known that entering the week you would have figured you had a bad week But you had an amazing week in DFS You were on a lot of the the the the top plays the plays that kind of came through Really good line of construction. So I was you know, I wanted to like kind of tease you and I know I kind of did anyway But I don't think you care After what after what you did with your DFS lineup So well, I mean I care because like it's a it's a recent device thing because like so I knew about the DFS stuff Earlier in the day, but I had them like doing stuff I was out and I checked like the dynasty league and I checked our head-to-head after and so it was like Oh, I knew about the DFS stuff was baked in and then I circle back around and Suddenly see oh, I lost the head-to-head. I lost the dinos and didn't just lose. I got torched it was bad. Yeah, so It was rough and I you know, it did kind of bring things down a bit So you can still gloat because I still feel the pain of those losses Yeah I mean in hey like for the dynasty league. It's not it's not decided yet Um, you still have george kittle, uh, but you need to make up like 70 points from george kittle Yeah, but I have that's Matthew Stafford still so, you know, you never know man You never know kittles. Uh, kittles been trending up So we won't be able to talk about his week 10 usage yet on the show, but no You know, maybe we'll talk about the 80 point game from kittle. Yes, exactly. But like yeah, yesterday was good. Um, it was nice because Uh, I feel like so my three best lineups this year have all been dak with cd lamb like because there are two yesterday It's separate slates the the main and the 1 p.m. Only and then a couple weeks ago, too So I feel like I'm now obligated to roster CD lamb and dak Every single week if they're not in the slated I might consider not going there But I feel like I would still have to like leave an obligatory space open on my lineups to To pay respect to honor the greatest combination on the plan Yeah, um like And it's weird because And we don't really talk about this stuff like even when things go well, but um, you know, I had a solid week too Um, and we had I feel like a pretty good read on the slate overall and that's despite a ton of blowouts Uh, but that pack or the sorry the The cowboys and falcons game We both liked a lot. Unfortunately only one side of it came to play But you know, it made me feel good about the process and after honestly, uh, a really mediocre start to the season The the sheer fact of you know Just better results from the same process makes me feel better about the process and a big part of that process Yeah, it makes you feel better about your process retroactively saying, okay. No, it's been the right stuff before Yeah, and again a big part of our process is At least mine, but I feel like a little bit more for you even is narrowing down that core that we that we go to um And I was building lineups, uh sunday morning and I was like, I should probably have some tom brady because the spot's really good and um The the the matchup at least you know the surrounding circumstance wasn't and I didn't get there and You know, it worked out and tom brady was extremely chalky, which was unexpected for I don't think either of us really saw that coming um, but you know, it's it just makes me feel better, uh about like the the sort of process based Uh approach, um a bit of a tighter core because whenever it does work out It's uh, it makes up for the mistakes that you have whenever your core doesn't pan out So I feel pretty good. Um, one of the things that I think is it a takeaway from What you were saying about the rostrates because it wasn't just brady Mike Evans is 40% rostered and sunday million. We talked a lot about how late breaking news Is often undervalued in dfs and I think that We could also say that if there is a guy talked up all week as being a great play Either becomes a less great play as the week goes along People are still going to use them pretty heavily because like evans was being pumped up in part because of chris godwin and the like that godwin's gonna sit and Godwin played and evans is still a very good play like this is not, you know, saying you shouldn't have but like Should be better than a 40% of rosters probably not And james connor as well, uh, 25% so we had dearness johnson at about 45% in the sunday million james connor was the second most popular Uh running back in the sunday million at 25% and again connor wasn't a bad play We still could have projected the big workload, but he became a less good play because we talked about him last week on the monday show as You know being someone who could really change the slate And that that all that changed by sunday, and I've been talking a lot about not Sort of going away from the best process plays that we identify monday But running back this week was a bit of a different ball game because we definitely like we for sure had mark ingram Um, you know, nodgy harris got bumped down So it did change the way that I sort of viewed things, but you know, it just goes to the the point you were making James connor Kind of being the guy early on in the week throughout the week And he still was one of the guys uh come sunday despite the fact that you know, you and I both bumped him down ourselves Like I we talked about this on friday. Like we think I think we had ingram above Connor once we knew kyler might not play. I think that was right Yeah, and like I think that that's kind of the the weight of the early week stuff So Probably something to keep in mind if you see a player who is getting seen up earlier on the week getting a lot of talk at that point account for that if they if their situation becomes less favorable I guess is the way that I'd say that we'll talk about our headliner here in just one second at first Reminder with the nba season fully underway fandals free over under contest is also underway It is simple head over to fandal.com slash over under and choose either over or under each listed prop You can make free picks for a chance to win a share of five thousand dollars All you have to do is make your picks on fandal before every nba on tnt broadcast for your shot at a big Payday eligibility restrictions apply go to fandal.com or download the fandal app for more details Let's start things off here with our headliner from week number 10 and unfortunately This is a bummer one. We love erin jonesle's podcast We don't tend to use them a lot in bfs because his role is flawed, but he's a fun player Really fun guy. He got hurt late in their game against the seahawks the packers aj dylan wound up Having 21 carries. He had two targets 66 yards rushing 62 through the air 51 snap rate He also had 10 of 18 red zone chances for the team all 10 were carries That was even with jones playing for you know more than half the game It sounds like jones is going to miss at least a couple weeks. I had a sprained mcl And I think I read somewhere that he had missed two games with that same injury previously So we're going to get aj dylan with no erin jones now The main slate's not up yet. So we can't play name that salary We can play name that salary in theory and then we can check back on it later So brandon based on your projected role for aj dylan name that salary in week number 11 Yeah, so you make a good point with erin jones where we both like him as a player We like the talent but the role has not always been enough For a brief moment with the transition from jamal Williams to aj dylan kind of being the the back the backup We've been able to shed those fears a little bit, but that has come back for erin jones this season I think that you could make the case that Pretty easily that aj dylan has a better role than erin jones Had with them both healthy because we're looking at basically patrick taylor You know playing behind aj dylan now taylor Not the most athletic not the most productive back Undrafted out of memphis if i'm not mistaken there. Um, oh man memphis memphis running back Yeah But yeah, like there's not as much competition behind dylan Without jones as there was with jones with dylan healthy So I think you could basically say that the role is going to be better for dylan. I'm not saying he's a better player I'm not guaranteeing as much past passing work, but If you take uh everything into consideration I think dylan within this offense could be in the mid seven thousand range And I think that would be justified I don't think he can be quite as high as erin jones because I don't know if the passing game work is there Um, he kind of made a face. So do you think i'm way off base there? Well, not way off base. Uh, but so like we were talking about how we think that Um aj dylan's role Will be better than the role erin jones had the past couple weeks and In our heads. I think we did putting erin jones around seventy five hundred dollars He was way over that from an actual solid perspective, but like I thought his role was worth around seventy five So like if we take that and juice it up a bit I think Eight thousand ish is probably more appropriate for aj dylan just because like if we're taking Jones's role and juicing it up. I think that's probably where I'd wind up Yeah, um, I could see that I wouldn't I wouldn't hate it I guess maybe that means that you are you would be higher in theory on aj dylan's path to Receiving work than I might be So is that kind of the way that you see it? You think that because I mean and it's not fair to do this necessarily But he's he's at a six percent target share. Um this season, right Jones at fifteen percent um That the the the receiving share for jones is a big part of what gives him value So yeah, um, if you kind of had to ballpark what you think his uh dylan's target share would be moving forward Um, what would you put that in here? So he ran 10 routes this week Um with jones playing a good chunk of that game Looking back at other games here. I think he had a four target game recently. Was that last week? But he had that um, so aj dylan had uh He had four targets last week. He said two four so he can get like I would say I think that like a Range of two to five which is a wide range, but like two to five is probably appropriate. So Yeah, maybe bump it down a bit. Um, I think that's probably fair. You're right. Yeah, yeah, I think the yeah, so basically The issue there in jones is that he's always salaried at like 85 and we view a more, you know closer to 75 um, and even though I say Dylan's in a better spot. Um, then jones I still think like mid sevens like 76 77 would probably be The range for him just because I don't know if that receiving work is going to be there and we don't really like to play Vax at high salaries who are more touched on dependent and you're just by nature more touched on dependent for Outbursts and fantasy points if you're not going to be um, you know as involved From a pass game standpoint, of course, he caught the long pass. Um Right yesterday. He's got that ability, but you don't really want to bank on right one sort of busted play And and you want that do you want that volume to be there? Which it can be but I think that's really the only concern for dylan And I think it's you know moving forward our concern is not ability in the passing game It's will he get the opportunity and because like he's looked good when he's gotten those chances. It's more so like will they Try to you know move those elsewhere. So that could be good for I don't know like Alba's art someone like that uh to get some more But like who cares so yeah, I think that that's kind of potentially the thing there So they get minnesota Next week on the road. That'll be a pretty fun game for the main slate. So I think that'll be pretty enticing I think I think You've talked me down to 78 as being the sour for agent dylan this this week Yes, I mean all things considered were in the same ballpark with with dylan I'm going to be one of the better plays Uh for I mean presumably it's hard without the I would get he I bet that he's seven thousand because that's where they put james connor last week in a similar situation Yeah, if he's seven thousand, I think he's going to shape up as one of the preliminarily best plays Yeah, and With the difference between he and connor would be that we're not bank We're not like waiting to hear about the corgar back situation with him. So it's not colt macaway It's going to take a trevler. Yeah, it would take a lot to bump down dylan Yeah, unless they come out and say we're not going to throw them the ball, which they won't they're not going to say that So right and like arizona had all the receiver injuries to which hurts offense efficiency So yeah, I think the factors combined to make it a better situation for sure for aji dylan I'm sure we'll talk more about him on thursday, but again, I'm guessing he'll be around seven thousand We think he's closer to the high sevens from a salary perspective It's almost another injury is here from the week 10 a slate dallas got a rule about in the second quarter with a head injury It led to the targets being concentrated between divante smith and quest lock ins They both had six which Unfortunately, it was like half of the teams total actually more than half. I think it was 23 and they had 12 uh smith scored twice. He had 66 yards, but Like it's just so hard to have like a 120 yard two touchdown ceiling when the team's throwing 12 times a game So that's tough. Uh, but like it is going to be a really good like market share So where we had a divante smith if dallas got our missus time Um, so yeah, I have my 27 target share this week with the six targets 42 of the area it's three downfield two end zone targets um Again, you're the you're the comparison guy You're much better with comps But with this run heavy offense and divante smith skill set and good target share but low volume I'm getting like, uh marky's brown of years past vibes from this offense overall Where you kind of you can talk yourself into the path for a big ceiling game from divante smith But he's gonna have to do it on his four to six maybe seven targets Cash in on the downfield work Uh, but outside of that you really are setting yourself up for So a huge very easy a very wide path to failure. So that's kind of the vibe. I'm getting Uh, would you at least it's a wide path to failure but also like The upsides not as high because Like it you can't go for 202 If you're not if your team's not going to get 200 yards passing overall So like I think that it's a combination two things. I'm not saying like no you can't use him. It's more so like I can't get excited despite the fact that he looks really good despite the fact that he's got this massive target share Despite the fact that he's playing really well Like I can't get excited. I guess is the way that I phrase it. Yeah, that's That's how I felt basically to a tee with marky's brown in yeah for sure recent seasons not this season It's very different for him. I think it's pretty good Yeah, just a run heavy offense with a quarterback who Probably he's going to run the ball himself a good bit. Um Fall shy of 200 yards very frequently. That's just tough You know, we don't care about passing yards so much with quarterbacks Like obviously we want them we want rushing and we want touchdown conversion But that that really just straps the entire Pass catching core and it really takes them out of play right on full slates. So like from a An estimation perspective you want to get like a vibe check basically where I'm at with him I would say he was 62. I think this week. I'd keep him there like I don't think anything changed despite the fact that more targets. It's like You open up a 23 percent target share in the offense that that amounts to like four targets in this offense Which stinks. So I I'd say Same standing pat which stinks Yeah, I would say I don't think he realistically would go down from where he was after a touchdown game But I wouldn't want to bump him up either. No, I agree Other injury from sunday slate was cordial Patterson hurt his ankle against the cowboys and didn't return Hard to tell if he could have returned if the game had not been just like some massive blowout But like it doesn't matter like we don't know But with cordial out Wayne Gaulman did lead in snaps That's misleading because seven of his 15 carries came in the fourth quarter when josh rosin was a quarterback So I'm not sure if Gaulman is leapfrogged mike davis. I would doubt that but like Not sure it matters. Honestly. So if cordial misses time Are you in on mike davis or Wayne gaulman here or do we just avoid this backfield altogether? Um, it pains me to say as I apparently matt ryan's biggest fan, but Um, I I think that There's not enough here with this offense. Um, I Still think that there's A case to be made for kyle pits on any slate, but outside of him I don't think that there would be anything within this offense that would that would show me enough um On a full slate to want to get there. So right I I can't really I can't vouch for this offense even though I love matt ryan and I think he's turning up But they do play thursday against the patriots, so That will be no cordial Which means my dynasty would have been a revenge game is going to be even worse. Oh, I forgot about that. You're right Quarter house like 63 revenge games, which is good for him. Um, yeah, I think I think the issue we're gonna have is that gaulman's gonna take some really down work Like we can expect mike davis to get some passing game work, but The way you get, you know Points is via passing game work yardage and touchdowns. I don't think he's gonna get the yardage and he gets the passing game work They're probably not gonna score a lot of touchdowns. So I think even if we do take quarter out of the equation It's still a really rough spot and I would not be super inclined towards mike davis regardless Yeah, um I don't know how many games are gonna be on the main slate, but there's only two teams on by so probably like 12 13 I guess 13 No 12, um I don't I don't know What would have to happen at running back? No, what you'd have to get crazy. Yeah, you're right. You're right Okay, so let's move now to roll changes here and talk about what we saw there in week number 10 Cam Newton made his debut yesterday He scored two short touchdowns really early on playing goal line packages One of those is rushing and that's noteworthy because that's one of the threats that he would potentially pose christian mccaffrey If he could lose some goal line work if cam's running we talked about that with damian harris I like the end of the the preseason like oh man cam's gone damian harris gonna have like 97 touchdowns Oh But I think like With mccaffrey, he's still got 31 of the red zone chances in this game and that number could have been higher Because chuba hover got a late touchdown, you know Game was out of hand. They had taken him out to keep keep him rested So two questions here. The first one is if we assume cam starts, which I bet he probably does in week 11 How does it alter your view of mccaffrey and does cam starting elevate the pass catchers for you above where they were with pj walker Uh, I mean Let's let's be clear. Let's go with the pass catchers first Um, there's one pass catcher. I would consider and it's dj mor pass catcher. You're right. Yeah um, I don't think that it hurts from an efficiency standpoint because like I actually wrote a piece for number fire. Um Entering the season about dj mor's potential with sam darnold and basically dj mor has outperformed teammates With virtually every quarterback he's ever had which has not been the best list So I still think that the arrow is um, slightly more up than it is down with cam newton I would assume though this is something I could talk about. Um, I had this in the philosophy changes section sure, um with the uh panthers Over the past four games, they're eighth in pace excluding garbage time plays which is uh, when your presnap win probability is either lower than 20 percent or higher than 80 percent so within basically a winnable games, uh script They're up to eighth in pace and third down to 30th and pass rate over the past four games Prior to that they were 29th in pace again now eighth Um, and they were 18th and pass rate down to 30th if cam newton starts you would expect that they they're Down in like the bottom three and and pass rate. Um, they might play a little bit faster So I don't think that it's enough to bump up dj mor by any means just from an efficiency standpoint because the volume Never is going to be that high. Um, so that's how I would view dj mor which is it sucks because we love dj mor as for, uh, mccaffrey watching that game. I saw a good bit of it on red zone He almost scored multiple times And that's the kind of thing that Won't really show up people probably won't talk about enough with cam newton there Especially if newton is named the starter, which I would presume would happen um So I think mccaffrey still has Plenty of touchdown upside of course that goes down a bit But if they move the ball better then then they're in the red zone more. So I kind of view it as like a Overall probably a net wash for mccaffrey where he's still amazing Yeah, and I think I know I'm talking a lot about this But we're talking about the best running back fantasy asset in football So I think it's worth discussing all the different angles. Um, so I would say it's about neutral for mccaffrey With some pluses and minuses but ultimately coming out to like a wash I think it's either a wash or a slight positive despite the fact that they may lose some goal line work Just because of what you said because they'll have more goal line chances with cam than pj walker. I like I basically wrote off this offense when it was pj walker starting whereas with cam It's like you can keep them afloat like you may keep them relevant. So I think that's enough where I'm Gonna be there because of that so To me I think it is a slight positive. They're facing, uh, washington this week named that salary mccaffrey if we assume cam starts in that game Um, I'd say probably Just because he is who he is I would say He was 9 000 this week. I'd say 10 000 I think nine five 10 somewhere in there. I know it's a big range too, but it is but he's gonna go up Yeah from 9 000, I would say that if he's if he's 10, I'm fine with it anything outside of that I'd be a little bit more wary. Right. Um, but Again that that I think it's just like I think he was under salaried I think well, I think he was fairly salaried for the potential concerns But seeing what he did again this week those concerns are all gone. So I'm cool to kind of take the Take the top off or take. I don't know remove the the tarp of concern with mccaffrey. The tarp of concern I've never heard that before but I don't know. There's probably there's probably something out there that uh, I was trying to I was trying to say but we're gonna keep that that's gonna work. That's that's a thing now It's 9 25 eastern And it was a long long night of prep to try to get get up to speed with all these changes So I have no coffee here. It's 6 25. I'm at an airbnb in Seattle. There's no coffee. So I am drinking tea Which I don't do. Uh, so I feel you I get that for sure. Uh, yeah, that's the fun digs. There's no coffee there Well, there was we we drank it so It's gone Um, staphon digs the week after we talked about how a manual sanders was creeping into being a one b-ish type Thing staphon digs said no idiots. Uh, he got the wide receiver one treatment for the bills against the jets 13 to 28 overall targets. He had four out of six red zone targets five out of 10 Downfield targets. That was the issue before was that man. He was eating heavily into staphon digs downfield share digs had a 24 percent target share in all games leading into this 17 percent of target share the two games post buy but now He showed that these games were within his range of outcomes So brand are you changing how you've used staphon digs based on this game? Um, yeah, because the fear of missing out with digs is back. Yes. Um, because he it wasn't It wasn't that he had a good game It was that he had phenomenal usage. Yeah, those are two very distinct differences cd lamb had a good game this week His usage wasn't necessarily Um, phenomenal digs getting this workload is the type of thing that makes him An outlier uh, potentially each week Again, I don't know if this will stick but It's it's gonna be trend. It's got to trend up into this now that he's done this um So i'm not saying he's back to being Someone I feel like I have to play no matter the salary But I am changing the way that I view him because that fear of missing out is back Yeah, if you look at his his overall shares now like we're going to the full season He's at 28 percent in the red zone 31 percent deep which is still lower than you like but 26 percent overall those are really good numbers and Those are the numbers that can produce a You know a ceiling game which he showed on sunday So it kind of the floor is the same I still think that there are situations where he reverts back into Being, you know, somewhat underwhelming I guess I would say previous like that could definitely happen again because manny is still there Manny is a guy who earns targets But the ceiling is better and I think that's exactly what you were saying where the you know Because that's kind of a proxy or fomo's a proxy for ceiling um And so I think that You bump up the ceiling keep the floor the same I would say probably bump down manny's floor but keep the ceiling the same So like yeah Widing the range of outcomes on both guys but in a positive sense for digs and a negative sense for manny so one thing you said that really kind of drew my attention was that you You said that digs having like mediocre Usage games were still within the range of outcomes for him And I agree with you But it it kind of brings a follow-up question of is there anyone other than maybe like davante adam is where you feel like Like a 25 target share is virtually guaranteed every single week. Like is it Is it just I mean, I guess tyree kill tyreek. Yeah, but like so digs isn't in that level No But I think like if you're not davante and you're not tyree kill you're gonna have issues digs might be like the The number three though behind those two guys davante smith is also guaranteed a 25 target share which Amounts to four and a half targets. That's true. I would say terry mccloren also is kind of a You'd be baking 25. It doesn't matter as much because he's catching that some taylor heinecky and nautrash allen I I still think that like I'm not even yeah, I think the digs you put him down for 20% minimum because like his target totals are 14 8 10 10 5 11 7 8 13. Those are all really good so I would say I think the the reason why The underwhelming games could still be there is because the deep usage and the high leverage use is not I'm not as Firm and saying that's not going away now I think that's the difference for me because like you can have a set entire game It would just be fine because you're not getting any high leverage stuff Yeah, I mean, I think the The the main point for digs and I really wish we had salaries, um, yeah, is that I think he's basically at the top of the The second tier, you know, again with the vonte entire week and he was close to that already But he yep, he was like mid mid tier. He's more firm in that now. I think Yeah Yeah, I'd agree with that as well Okay, so let's talk here about the cowboys michael gallop returned tough to know How to view them because the score was so lopsided here like just outrageous in the first half CD lamb had seven targets michael gallop had four amara cooper at three So gallop actually had more targets than amara cooper, which means he'll be involved Dolton schulds didn't have any first half targets for this team In lamb went nuts. Uh, the upside is still there and I think that's important to know Similar to digs like these guys can still have stealing games because dak is amazing because they're very good players It's more so like how do we view them from like a baseline perspective now that gallop is healthy as well? Yeah, that's tough. Um, this team is They've already had I'll call it market share concerns not really production concerns just because of the way that they share the ball lamb again, I sort of mentioned him in comparison to staphon digs lamb had the two touchdowns 94 yards on his seven targets, but it was 21 of the targets And yeah, like things got out of hand quickly Uh, but I don't think that that's really What led to a 21 target share for cd lamb? Uh, that's not like what His issue is his full season target share in his in Is 23% like It was this basically the same. Um, he just had the production on at the efficiency No downfield work for him in week 10, but three red zone targets two end zone targets So his workload's still really good and I will always rank him above amari cooper whenever I can get there Um in lineups, I was building this week with dak It was I'll settle for amari when I when I can't get there with salary, but I'm always going to prioritize cd lamb Um, so I still feel good with lamb His salary already was 7700. So it was at the high end. Um, and if it goes up from there because of the two touchdown game, I would Have a hard time, uh, justifying that because we're looking at someone who again full season 22.5 percent target share So, yeah Wide of our time justifying is like a standalone play but for with dax Like because the ceiling is so good. I can still get there very easily. I think that's true for all these guys Yeah, I'm so I think the better the better case is probably if I if I was playing a one-off I would probably just place to find digs over cd lamb. Yes. Yeah, I agree But for game stacks like cd lamb still within this offense Within any with with any concerns that we have about gallop and how the usage might break. He's still the guy for me Yeah, which is a very safe take. But yeah, I don't care what a salary is I would prefer to be able to stack him with that whenever possible So I'm gonna put it out salaries here and you tell me where you disagree I would say lamb 77 cooper 7000 gallop 6000. What do you think about those? I think those are fine, but I don't know if lamb will stay at 77 after yeah Yeah, but I think that again anything above that if he's creeping into the 8000 range I don't know if the usage is there whereas if the font digs is 8000 I would probably be more okay with it. Yep, I agree that Let's talk to hear about the patriots without Damian Harris from Andre Stevenson was featured for the patriots Played on 57 of the snaps. He had 20 carries for 100 yards of two touchdowns Also had five targets on nine routes So five targets good nine routes less good, but they threw like five times in that game because they're up so big Stevenson had six red zone carries and two red zone targets So eight out of 16 chances inside the red zone for the team Problems, we don't know what Damian Harris's role will be I'm not convinced he did enough to like be dfs relevant when Harris gets back. What about you? Yeah, so that's the discrepancy here is did he do enough to be dfs relevant right with Harris back? No If you need him in season long, did he do enough? Sure You joked about the the route rates um, 32 of the routes on Even with just the nine actually had two red zone targets there like like we said and Dropped what might have been a touchdown That's not what you want to see for a back really trying to make the case for himself, but Did did overperform his expected rushing yards next gen stats had him at 69 Expected rushing yards, which is uh, you know nice enough But he went ahead and got us 100 on those yardage and I say us as if I I didn't play him I didn't I didn't think there was enough there, but um So again, I I really don't anticipate a big enough role for Stevenson The bigger thing is and you and I don't really play Damian Harris as it is but I would Have a very very hard time Yeah, he was crossed off already after last week when he was losing work before he got hurt and now he's crossed offer Yeah, cross it offer cross more cross it off cross it off sometimes Sometimes when you cross something off you just do the one line through it, but and then you can still see what's there Um, I think you need to take a sharpie over Damian Harris's name sharpie and pen And pen this is permanent just dusted away Never again make sure it's gone. I think with Stevenson like if he were to Clamp down the previous Damian Harris role And I could believe it I could maybe talk myself into him, but the odds I believe it are minimal at best Yeah, then like it's still very flawed Yeah, I do think the one thing that's better for him is that like I can more realistic and see him getting passing game work than Harris. So like that that's positive But again, believing it is a different thing believing. It's legit believing. They're not going to pull the wrong guy from under me Yeah, that's that's the real issue. Um, and and again, this is not just this is historically And this season has just not been a team where we see elevated snap rates I believe the highest single game snap rate for this team Is 61 for Harris back in week four Very few it's another game where you have like five carries for like nine yards or something crazy like that I can actually pull this It was something I think it was something absurd where he had like five carries that was going to Tampa Bay Oh, yeah, that's why yeah, that makes sense um Yeah, four carries negative like they just don't they just don't give people Good rolls, which I mean, you know more power to them. Their offense is working great Why I can't criticize it. It's more so like I just don't want to use it for dfs In that game four carries two targets 26 yards sick Sick Yeah, so, um, I think Stevenson will be The poster boy or a big waiver wire pickup, but yeah This is not Well, I guess let's let's talk about this if Harris is out What yeah, because you got passing game work. Yeah, okay Um, and like that game got blowouty. That's not a word either Um, we got blowouty so snapper could have been better Um, so I think that yeah if Harris sort of missed more time, I'd be okay going there for sure Yeah, okay, and I mean they play Thursday So yeah, we could we could be looking at a single game slate with with Stevenson in that situation I think that that would make a lot of sense. Um But if that game was on the main slate and we had no Harris Against the salary and I'm guessing he'd be too high Yeah, he would bump up from 54 Yeah so That's where I'd be uh mark ingram was a featured back for the saints in The year 2021 that happened. I played 85 the snaps. He had 14 out of 16 running back carries also Tied for the team lead with seven targets. Uh, the red zone roll was also very good He had four to seven carries. He had two out of six targets That's a really freaking good role alvin chimera Didn't practice it all this past week. It seems like there's a good chance. He sits once again this week Ingram may be the lead guy once again So based on what you saw here in this game brandon, uh name that sorry for mark ingram They are facing philadelphia on the road in week 11 Yeah, um, that is a really really good workload. Um 22 routes which is 55 that would be probably the main hang up of mark ingram as if the receiving work wasn't there But it was there a little bit before this week too. So I think that we could buy in and believe that it'll be there The good red zone roll Not a whole lot of competition For him and also time on camera got banged up. So that helped. I'm sure Uh with 85 snap rates, so we'll have to monitor that but get spun around which ain't great They kept trying to show it on the tv and I was like, no, just cut this off. Stop it. Stop it. Stop it This is a really hard one to figure out because I don't love this offense um That's done trevor played well, man You should love this offense They're just they're one and a half point road underdogs in a game with a total 43 and a half against the team that wants to Run the ball and just basically keep things moving. So this is probably a spot where I will be too Too low on him Given the specific matchup for next week, but I'm kind of like Can I just say 7 000 like a james connor? It's a better roll like 74 I wouldn't so we're not that far off. Yeah, yeah I wouldn't hate that but I think that if you give me a guy Who's gonna get legit passing game work who is going to be decently efficient, you know 180 yards. That's good yardage upside good red zone roll I think that once I account for your concerns which which I would echo with the offense and like the you know facing a run Heavy opposing team. I think 74 is where I settle in after accounting for that those factors which are agreed I agree. Those are legit downgrades so they're gonna have Like a 21 point implied team total If if he really is 74, let's call it. Yeah, I don't know if that's Within that specific game It might be like a very very different paths to great usage But de andre swip this week where like he was what 73 I think I feel a lot better about the saints offense and the lions though But like a better match or two The overall perception of like, yeah, he's there. I see the case for it. But man, I like I don't know if there are enough points here And I like it's it's like a guy that I like See him for like lender for net in that range this week It's like I don't I don't dislike this but I think they're a better place So if he is 74, I could very easily see myself not quite getting there And I don't think he's gonna have a six in front of his salary either So I think he might actually I wouldn't be shocked. Yeah, I think I can see like 66 settling in just because like It wasn't like a buzzy injury. Um, you know, that happened during the week And I think those ones that tend to get juiced up a lot. Um, I just checked there's no slate up yet, but um, Yeah, I keep I wouldn't be shocked if he's in the 6000 range I wouldn't be shocked. I think if he's it. Yeah, if he's in the 6000 range, I think he's gonna be one of the better plays Again this week. Yeah So I would but I do have my I do have my my own concerns here to some degree and those are fair concerns I think that's why I bump it down to 74 just begin to account for those because like if you give me 85 snap rate Uh, on a better offense I'm going $8400 with 74. So, uh, Jonathan Taylor. Okay No, like I especially early on in the season. I tried I tried to like look at snap rate and be like That's basically your salary. So 85 percent snap rate. You're like, okay around 85 100 but I don't think I'm there because I don't like the offense nearly as much And one reason not to apply the snap rate principles because Jonathan Taylor used to play a low percentage of snaps and he no longer does He played with season height 84 percent of the snaps this week. He also sets season highs and carries and targets 37 Adjusted opportunities carries plus 2x targets. He had eight out of nine red zone chances So like his red zone roll remains stupid If we look at five games since Taylor's snap rate first one about 60 percent He's again, he's 84 on sunday He's at 143.2 yards from scrimmage per game So we like Taylor a lot coming into this week. I think that once uh, Ben was ruled out. We agreed Taylor in all formats We had said Taylor internments before above nudge me once Ben is ruled out I had Taylor above them. Okay, you did. I didn't yeah, uh once Ben is ruled out I had him above in all formats as well. So we were consensus at that point now We're getting the roll even better So he was already high, but his his actual roll is getting better. So Like do we just keep bumping him up more or what do we do here? Yeah, I think we have to um So if you look at the full season so you don't even like cherry pick his best games, um, he is Eighth among running backs in adjusted opportunities per game But that if we take out Derek Henry, uh, he bumps up the seventh chimera. He would be sixth Um, and again, that doesn't even like look at his best, uh, his best sample Right, we know that the red zone work is phenomenal Watching that game on like whenever they get in the red zone, um It just was like they're gonna just hand the ball to jonathan taylor here I mean literally there was only one player where they didn't well They want two targets to him too. So it's like they're just gonna they're just gonna give them the ball Inside the 10 or inside the 20 but like, you know, really once they get down there, it's like Yeah, that's what you those are the types of Fantasy assets that we've had historically at running back that we don't really have anymore um And that's what makes guys back whenever it was like levy on bell and uh christian mccaffrey and david jonathan's like yeah, it's like You can't really make a case against these guys even at like extreme salaries. So right we know the talent's there We know they want to get on the ball. Um, I don't know if you asked me for a salary But they get bufflin next week. So it's like a tough defense, but like I don't know if it matters with him, right I don't think it does either because he's good enough like to to overcome it and the usage is is so strong yeah, um The only fear I still have and I so like You could probably Comp him to some degree to derrick henry of years past where it's like, okay if they really get floored from the get-go like maybe there's a defense at like a pick six or a blocked punt and A buffalos up like 17 nothing at the end of the first quarter Like there's still a chance that they go to naeem heins much more than you would want But I don't think that uh We're to the point where like he's going to be off the field like derrick henry had been so right I don't view it quite the same So I don't really have a whole lot of knocks on on taylor, which is I know Very safe to say but historically I've been low on taylor for these concerns Right, so he basically was training the opposite way of erin jones where like those two guys I had right concerns with jones would was regressing back into What I had historically thought of him Taylor has just shattered through that So I think the era is way up on taylor and it already had been so I yeah I really don't know what the salary would have to be for me not to want to play him Right, but then it would open up into like the What does the other What are the other guys at running back? What am I out there? Yeah? Uh, so let me read you his yardage totals from week four on 114 169 158 110 122 200 126 Pretty good that 110 plus in seven straight games 11 points from yardage alone on vandal a minimum Like that's absurd. It's great. I know you don't need to be told that jonathan taylor is good But I'd like to tell you that jonathan taylor is good. Just we're breaking breaking news here. I would say He's worth 10,000 even that matchup I'd consider paying more though Yeah, um, so boy that's gonna What's that total? Okay, let me ask you this jonathan taylor versus buffalo or christian mccaffrey against washington Well, I was gonna say the the reason I brought that up is uh, so the colts the colts game has a 49 and a half point Over under the colts seven point underdogs according to vandal's words book. That's a bit heavy um, but The panthers washington game has the lowest Total of the week at 43. Yeah, so six and a half point gap there tighter spread but Oh I think Look if we're gonna want to play christian mccaffrey, we're gonna have to talk ourselves into playing them with low totals. Anyway, yeah, yeah, so I think I'd go mccaffrey by a hair Yeah I get it. I think I might go taylor though But the fact that we're looking at jonathan taylor now is a seven point underdog on the road against an extremely tough defense In comparing him to christian mccaffrey Uh, I never thought I'd get there so Curious where I have this one at um, all the kudos to uh, jonathan taylor for for what he's been putting out there She's it's a seven point spread Yep, that's a lot. All right, cool. It is looks like I am Thatting the colts this week. What could go wrong? They almost lost me one of the jags yesterday That's one of the biggest spreads of the week On the main slate. I don't get it. I don't get it. Wow actually Um, oh never mind I don't have it sorted by absolute spread. Okay. All right I thought that there were three games with spreads greater than two and a half But I was mistaken just because I sorted my spreadsheet Okay, so another uh check in here on the broncos with jerry judy and noah famping healthy because we've only had Now three games a sample with that so quick update on that Judy had nine targets in week 10 fant and tim patrick had six courtland sudden just three So if we look at the games since judy returned because judy played like half the snaps in week one So it's fair to admit that one if we look at just weeks eight and ten judy has 22 percent of the overall targets and 30 percent of the air yards Uh, believe this even both those no fant second and target sure at 17 percent tim patrick is at 15 percent Sutton is tied with uh jivan table in some melvin gordon 12 percent. So Judy's role is good, but not great and I think that that's Annoying when it's not in an offense. We tend to target. So I still like him, but he's I can't love him when these factors are in place What about you? Yeah, again, I'm not great with comps and I don't actually have one, but I feel like the jerry judy good target share Undesirable offense for the most part, but going to be down in like the low six is where It's right before you're digging into like the scraps at receiver and really trying to talk yourself into guys There are always players like that Maybe like a brain and cooks jar in the past jar those those types of plays where it's like You know for a cash game for a one-off like I would rather play jerry judy than just punt at receiver, of course But there's not a whole lot here and I don't know what's going on with courtland Sutton But they just they're not wanting to throw them the ball Yeah, I think Sutton's off the map for dfs. I think it's just phantom judy on this entire team I know that javante Williams out snapped melvin gordon this week, but I don't put too much into that personally um Melvin fumbled and that's probably part of the reason why that happened um But I think to me it's really It's just those two and I don't feel great about either I think phantom is also again fine if he stays in the 57 range You know, I talked about him a lot on thursday I wound up going down to dan arnold and fire move more getting up to pits So like I liked him, but like that mid-range at tight end is just kind of like very awkward very no man's landy and You know realistically am I gonna be super stoked to use him probably not unless it's like a really good spot You know, I I think that he's like he's worth that salary. I just don't know if I'll be jazzed to use him Yeah, this is like I mean look it's it's we're entering week 11 We've got a lot of situations just figured out by now um This is one where there's been some change, but there's also not enough to have something Super super actionable where it's like, yeah, no a fan in the right situations I like him, but if we're gonna have access to someone like a dan arnold at 5100 um The case for a fan is a lot worse because effectively There is no difference maker at tight end Like from guys with salaries that Basically, if you're not like one of the big five like yeah, everyone's the same And it's all just sort of match up and who who caches in Because nobody has yardage upside outside of the the top tier Nobody has significantly better red zone equity aside from maybe hunter henry at this point So it's it's basically just the same and then at that point you take some savings So I don't know if I'm gonna play fan like the rest of the year even though I like them Yeah, that's where I was this week and it's thanks. I do like him too But I think just kind of no man's land at that point Sunday was our first game with erin rogers and mark has valda scantling together since week three and mvs Didn't have a bit a bigger role than he had last week. He was about half the routes last week He was on 26 38 this week just two targets. Um, both of them were deep shocker I did catch one for 41 yards the he went full mvs. You know, that's kind of how it goes. Um That's normal. That's what we expect, but it's not the kind of role we want for dfs. So Can you get to anybody? You know, can you get to mvs anybody else on this team outside of divante and aj dylan right now even in even in game stacks of the packers No, like hypothetically you loved air like let's just say hypothetically you wanted to use erin rogers on a slate Would you stack with anyone outside of divante and aj dylan because I don't think I would No, there's not enough there For anybody this is like the team that you just see 30 30 for divante Um, sometimes people get up to like 20 in a single game like this week. We had um You know erin jones at 17 percent, but erin jones is kind of the their secondary pass catcher And then everyone else is 11 percent eight percent six percent. That's just that's not enough. Um, yeah, and again, I Mark has bought a scaling is the perfect high a dot receiver, but a high a dot receiver um, can mean Different things for him. It's he's a high a dot receiver. So he's going to get his two three targets They're going to come at a high dot. It's going to be hyper volatile, but Two downfield targets and two total targets like that's not enough That's not what jim and I talk about whenever we're looking for downfield work We went down to work in addition to like a 20 percent target share an 18 percent target share maybe for like a value guy if it's You know, I think that there's a perception sometimes where all it takes is one and it does to some degree but realistically if mark has bought a scaling catches like a A 50 yard touchdown He might not do anything else the rest of the game. That's still not going to get you there So like you still need the volume and it's not there right or anybody else The checklist we make is 85 yards or two touchdowns a wide receiver You almost definitely cannot get that on one catch. Let's even 85 yard touchdown so like All you take is one all it takes is one is a phrase that's used often And probably like a thought process that's used often, but it's actually not true Like unless it's an again a 99-year touchdown or whatever like 86 Or probably not or like a small slate. Um, if we look at like the afternoon slate something like that But if you look at 12 games You don't you don't make an optimal lineup at receiver like even if you're Is your salary is 5 000 if you have nine fandal points like a 30-yard touchdown or whatever like it's not enough Or even 11 Yeah, like if he gets 50 yards on the touchdown, that's 11 and a half Yeah, I think um I think like nobody made it below 12 and a half last year Or like very like one for a perfect fandal lineup No, a sunday million winning lineup, I think oh Okay, I was gonna say like no one made it below 18 last year for uh, perfect lineup for a perp. Yeah for a sunday million I think one or two guys were like below 13 But like it takes more than that. So yeah, you know, I know I know we're kind of fixated on mvs, but This applies to a lot of other players too very much does yeah for sure Uh, so it's really just devontae and dylan on that team right now The chiefs ran more heavy personnel on sunday night. I got my boy. Noah gray and he ends then which I always take They also scale back michael hardman's rule quite a bit He played a season low 31 of the snaps fire and pringle played 60 of the snaps He ran twice as many routes as hardman actually josh gordon ran more routes than heartland did which is Wolf uh pringle just five targets but Are you willing to use him on full of slates now because michael is gone like we can just say that but like Would you use pringle at all on full slates or are we on Whoever's that running back kelsey and hill? Yeah, what happened with with hardman like he Looks good when he when he did get the ball. So I don't know if you got a couple times early. Yeah um I don't know. I mean A little bit surprising maybe we'll get some news there, but yeah, I don't know if I'm quite there with pringle um Two downfield uh targets one ends on target the Like we want to talk about the packers having minimal uh relevant dfs pieces I feel better about whoever's the third man up for them for the chiefs Or even the second man, I guess, but like yeah, right. That's not like it's got to be third With four that you count daryl williams getting his nine targets so This also is like not the chief's offensive old where I would have been much more open to it So I don't think that there's enough for for pringle either because next week It could be josh gordon if he's trying because he's been trending up So I'm I'm not going to be there on a full slate. Uh, what about you? Yeah, I don't think so because like even when hardman had a really good role Like he was getting targets and like that there was no yardage upside and like I kind of feel like pringle Will wind up being in that same bucket um, so like Yeah, I I don't know. I think I think that the main change would be like on a single game slate pringle becomes the de facto like lower salary guy you use on the chiefs because like we're looking there but like Outside of that they get dallas next week. So I'll have to think long and hard about this, but I think for right now I am likely omitting those super low salary guys Well, we can't name that salary with any and get any confirmation, but What so byron pringle? 5000 He was he was 52 on like the week-long slate, I believe so I'm not saying he'll go up, but if he's 55 Probably a bit and that's where like Gallup was this week and I had I think like 10 gallup and I feel better about gallup than I do about pringle. So like Yeah, I feel like I would have a hard time getting there Because like they could also just like reverse the roles again and go back to me cool. They could go to Anyone, I don't know. So That's just how this offense has always been for a long long time. Um You know just not to mark as robinson. That's that's all I'll say is no to mark as robinson. That's that's the only definitive. No no You had like 100 or he had like 200 yards in a game once and I don't think he's gotten 200 combined since then No, no, no No, no, but I think I mean, we might get ch back this week. That'd be kind of fun. I guess but like um I don't think I can get to those lower salary dudes in this this spot So we'll see that's gonna be a fun game. We'll talk a lot about on thursday Russell wilson made his return less fun. Uh, obviously really struggled as you know Average negative point 3a passing that expected points per drop back. He completed one of nine d passes in this game He gave eight targets dk mech f entire locket, which we like but also gave eight to gerald ever which is kind of interesting and different. Uh, so Really struggled What's your level of trust in this offense right now? um trust I was not a Trust is not the word I think I would ever use for the seattle offense. I trusted them this week Obviously, it was okay because other stuff went well, but I trusted them more than I should have I don't know. I mean trust is a stretch for me because the way that russia wilson gets there is By throwing four touchdowns on 24 attempts for like 280 yards um and with the Market shares being good, but the past volume generally being low The way that locket and that cap get there is be by being hyper efficient on their limited chances. Yeah that's They're not really a team. I trust they're a team that I feel like That I fear missing out on that's basically How I'm how I view them so that's probably more of a me thing than it is anything. I trust I trust that that that the that locket and that cap run and get volume And I trust that they'll be efficient in that because rust is so good Which allows me to trust the whole offense Like it doesn't mean I think that they have a high floor But it means that I think I'm not going to regret it in terms of like, oh, I think the usage will justify this move Okay from yeah, if it's just usage then sure Um So that I think that's probably to say that I'm not worried about the jail or whatever usage eating into mec half and locket I think it's more. I'm more asking like do you trust the performance given how how much they struggle this week? Why do you trust them to perform this week? They get Arizona at home, which is a potentially fun game if kyler is going Uh, this is a tough one. So russ had A 12.3 a dot Did he have 490 ariads? Sweet Um, so if you look if you look at his expected completion rate according to next gen stats and just for drops and everything like that He was at 60.3 percent yep Not good league average this week was 69 percent, which is nice. Um, I think Just a first look at this slate Russ is not going to be a quarterback that I want to play uh-huh Unless his salary remains at 75 or goes down, which I don't anticipate And what about the receivers? I'm always good with mec half and locket. Although I'm pretty sure locket is Generally the play against the cardinals if you so what you're saying is that the the performance on sunday combined with the seahawking-ness of them is enough where you don't want to get to wilson But it's not enough where you're going to pass up the receivers Am I correct? Well, I'm not gonna so okay, so It's a hard question to answer. I'm probably making it harder than I need to with trust Just because it's a very specific word I don't really I meant like the way I phrase it just now. Do you agree that okay? Yeah, well the thing is Do you consider dk mec half and Tyler locket one-off plays for you because I generally don't I had them as again, this is This is the one thing didn't go that well this week I had those one offs this week and I do have them as one offs decently often. Yes I typically don't so If you want like a level of comparison I am more far more willing to have those two as one offs than the cowboys receivers I'm more likely to stack with back Then I am like, you know have rust as a quarterback But I'm more likely to have those guys as one offs because their target floor is sick and they have The same upside I agree with that Okay, so let's go to situations to monitor here talk about some other stuff that's stuck out to you From either sunday or thursday. What else do you see when looking through some data? um, so ty Hilton's a little bit Back not to the point where I want to use him, but it's more that we've been monitoring Michael Pittman a lot this season Hilton had five targets on 26 routes tied for a team high 36 percent air yard share in week 10 In three games with hilton playing Michael Pittman jr. Is still the wide receiver one. So I'm not that concerned It's a 23 percent target share, which is decent 29 percent air yard share Hilton's at a 14 percent target share in those games Still getting really good downfield work per target. Um, but again, not enough for hilton Just more like tracking Pittman. I still think i'm there, but a little bit lower Although hilton could in theory help the offense be more efficient James robinson coming back from his heel injury 58 percent of the snaps all three red zone carries. So Uh, I thought he was very over salaried at 75 this week. I will still think that but he's probably gonna train back up Moving forward just not really enough there for me within this offense Deandre swift led the lions in pass routes, which you absolutely love to see he had 27 Tied for a team high and targets with six to go along with 33 carries had good yardage output, but Did not overperform from an expectation standpoint on the carry when they gave you case killing all those stealing all those touchdowns Go cats there we go. Yeah, I had to wear the north western shirt just for my boy godwin here I'm sure you've never worn anything north western No, definitely not I bought this for this show Where's your good college? I don't know. I'm in the northwest right now. So I can wear the shirt doubly. It's great Yeah, just just cut off the end. So it just says northwest northwester Of the Steelers pass catchers because chase clip will did not practice this week So that's not necessarily the most promising thing Moving forward james washington led the team with 48 pass routes, but had just six targets Deontay johnson 47 routes 13 targets Um, love to see that for deontay ray rear mccloud 12 targets on 41 routes Pat fryer mooth nearly doubled up eric ebron and routes 28 to 15 had nine targets. So Again quarterback issues The quarterback thing is interesting too because jay glazer was saying he didn't think ben and be cleared for next week. Oh which is wild It's not a 10 day thing allegedly because ben has said that he's vaccinated, but like, you know When has ben ever told a lie? Uh, so mason rudolf negative point 2o passing unexpected points per drop back if he starts again Like does do deontay's 13 targets matter? I don't think so um, that's kind of the the crux of what I was going to get at is um we liked fryer mooth and like Entering the weekend and then I jumped off pretty much entirely and just went to dan arnold. Um once we got the quarterback downgrade Rudolph did not look good that the whole you can't tie with the lions like that's Rough that's just a rough look. I know that I know that the conditions weren't fantastic, but Not very good. I guess I would an injured jared goff I would say deontay He was what 74 this week. I can't get there again Um, I needed that to come down was it probably won't after like the 13 targets Friar mooth probably won't go up significantly But if he's back in like the 5000 range again, we don't have to slate So it's hard to know for sure. Well, they're not on the main plate. So that helps. Oh They're on sunday night. Oh a feature game between jesson herbert and mason rudolf or dwayne haskins. Who can say Who could say um, and then aj brown Uh had just four targets despite lining up against march on latimore on only eight of 24 routes So they didn't really get him the ball outside of that anyway. Um, marcus johnson's going to get a lot of buzz, but um Not gonna chase that. Why not six targets led the team 100 yards. What's from what's wrong with that? I don't remember to pass catcher in a somewhat inefficient passing offense. Um, who might get you six targets um I mean six targets on 17 routes 59 of the routes That's not enough jim. He's basically julio. Good. All right Um, musha bateman kept his nice roll even with sammy walkins being back. Um bateman 29 routes and 47 drop backs. That's not ideal But it's also not terrible. I would say walkins 14 routes made some pretty key errors Which may influence things and keep bateman's roll more steady bateman 88 targets one of those is deep I feel like i'm fine continued to be in on him as long as the salary remains low If it creeps up then i'll have more concerns about hey, he's not getting a ton of deep work That's that or etc. But like i'm okay with it for right now That's our matt bateman at this point. You look like you want to say something on him? No Nope. Okay, cool. Uh letter for net played a bunch of snaps on sunday despite a negative script We've talked about this a bit where I was like, okay, is you gonna come in if they're if they're down it didn't uh for net snapper It was at 64 percent basically ronald jones the one who got thanos'd uh for net had 11 carries nine targets Don't need to go into it much But I do think that it's a bump up for for net knowing he will still be out there Should things break against them the way they did this past week not a roll change Is ronald jones not already been thanos? He'd still like would pop up for like seven carries every now and then and it really annoyed me every time Like every time I saw the two on the back of a Of a buccaneers running back jersey I get annoyed because it's either geo or ronald jones and I get annoyed whenever it's one of them So well you'll get to watch closely because they're playing monday night against the giants as 11 point favorites That'll be a why is that a monday night game? It goes after oh because it's the daniel jones repeat game of his coming out party In his first start when he went nuts And everyone's like oh man, we were wrong about daniel jones He I mean he's already made the he's he was put in the hall of fame after that game. Can you take him out? Can you take himself out? Can you sack himself from the hall of fame? I don't know. We'll see Uh, not a little change himself in any circumstance True, uh, but we did the confirmation that there was no role change for a lot more because He's been playing really well that has not led to a change in his playing time He's still he's still rotating with other guys to the jets. Um, he ran around about half the drop back sunday The production is very good. I would expect eventually that route number two increase But i'm not going there on a bad offense until it does so i'm waiting on Elijah more still with then out we talked about that one before Leviska shinalt did run a bit more in the slot this week 31 snap rates in the slot this week It was 27 last week 27 or 20 before that. Did I say something stupid? you said Oh, oh I read it as his His snap rates been creeping up back to 31 Which I would have believed snap rate from the slot eight targets Uh for leviska is most since week six two of those were deep. He had 15 yards on those eight targets So I don't know why I bother noting this but uh tomorrow agnew was still super involved five targets three deep targets for agnew He had that long touchdown to so I'm just letting you know that we're still avoiding it But you know leviska might get more slot route or snot that was snot snaps That was the excuse people were using for why leviska hasn't done anything is Oh, hey, he's not running the slot anymore. It turns out when he goes to the slot He's still not getting yardage. So there is that let's go to philosophical changes and start off with washington They were gonna establish it Uh despite basing the bucks their early down first half pass rate was 48 percent That's down from 54 for the full year or before they're by and again It's against the freaking bucks and it worked. So it's probably gonna stick Ryan Fitzpatrick likely done for the year now tary mclauren is dealing with a shoulder injury during the game Wouldn't be shocked if they continued to run but I don't think that's good for anyone because I haven't seen enough from antonio gibson to like feel good I know he's good this week, but I don't trust him yet for dfs I don't want to use him in dfs And it's also bad for their opponents if they're going to run more because it slows things down So where are you out in washington right now based on that run heavy approach this week? Uh speaking of slowing things down, uh, washington started off as one of the fastest teams in football from weeks one through four They ranked third in non garbage time pace which again is when your presnap win probability was between 20 and 80 percent They are 24th since week five in that number. So if they're going to run the ball And they're they're going to slow things down. It just ruins the other side of the game not that Not that washington football team games have been the most stackable to Like to begin with even when they were playing At faster paces. Um, but this really does kind of derail things Next week they play the panthers. That's a bit of a concern Just because the panthers can be um susceptible so That's going to be the the hardest question we have to answer for uh christian mccaffrey is Against a run heavy team that wants to slow things down grind some clock um, and with the the goal line concerns potentially like Is he really the best is he really like christian mccaffrey? So often it picked that game a good bit That that game is has a low total for a reason. I think that's what we're saying here overall like it's it's pretty grim Um, you had some notes on the raiders here and their pace. What are you seeing with them recently? Yeah, I already mentioned the panthers um in their tendency to run the ball a lot more But play at a faster tempo. So that was the the other noteworthy Mention I wanted to make but the raiders led the nfl a non garbage time pace in week 10 They've now ranked top four in pace the past three games Under john gruden, uh, they ranked 20th in pace and fifth in pass rate Um, since then there's so eighth in pass rates are virtually no change there But they're first overall in that sample. So they've been playing faster. Um, there's their pass heavy Um, it's it's been a pretty fun team overall Again, not flawless. They still have some market share concerns, but that could help darin waller And also their games be more stackable And that could be very relevant when they play the bangles next week that total is 49 There's basically there are five games with totals of at least 49 on the main slate according to fandall sports book That leaves seven at 46 and a half were worse. So We could kind of have our research cut Down a lot if we just focus on the games with the higher totals, especially because Of those five games with the total of at least 49 only one has a spread greater Than a two and a half right now and that's the cold spills game Let's party. Uh, so you would ask me in the private chat on this stream Hey, should we do like a game scroll since there's no salaries up and I said no But i'm gonna override myself. I think we should do that. Let's actually go through In lieu of a salary scroll, uh, where we go through the salaries on fandall and say, hey, this this stands out to me We don't do a game by game But I think we should like kind of just look at this slate overall And shout out the games you think are going to be like the focal points For this week the games we might be considering for the bookmaker section like our key stacks for next sunday's slate. So, uh Let's just kind of go through here and see what stands out The standout game For sure is going to be the chiefs and the cowboys that total is 55 and a half on fando sportsbook tight tight two and a half point spread for the chiefs at home so That is going to be the standout because the other well, I won't talk about the other games We'll talk about why that one um is the the best one because There are really no concerns on either side Unless you're still worried about the chiefs So I have like a a thing um, I don't know what why I said it that way. I have a I project offensive efficiency for both sides. I don't know why that was the way I decided to phrase that I project offense fishing for both sides and then you can combine that to get like the overall game Efficiency effectively if I do that for next week without adding in what happened this week Although it would be good for both teams. It'll only make it more encouraging um It's at like point 205 net expected points per play Between those two teams That sounds good for and even for the under initiated. That's good Yeah, like and like neither team is super slow paced um We have Some concerns about like where the ball is going stuff like that and dan quinn's a smart defensive coordinator So I see like we'll see a better game plan than what the the raiders had last night against this chiefs offense But am I numbers account for the fact that like they've been rough this year like it knows that and it still views this game as being Like a wide margin better. No other game is above point one five. This one's at point 20 like per play overall Yeah, so I think that's going to be the game of the week again So that puts the cowboys in basically the best game which is going to be very common I'm trying to whip up my own um Well, I have some game scores that I run I'm trying to get those up just because we're we're lagging behind. We're trying to get something something to uh Uh discuss but I would imagine this game is going to rate out very easily with Just like the best Overall game score imaginable for this week because of the tight spread Because of the good trends overall So I'm almost there, but I really don't know how this game doesn't just be the number one very easily so What's the spread in that game two and a half In favor of kids city, right? Yeah who What do you think you think it's Dallas? My numbers have Dallas by five, which seems not right. Oh, that's because I hadn't switched home field yet I was like, oh my gosh. Yeah, I hadn't switched home field yet. That's why um, okay So that's that uh other game that stands out minnesota green bay is pretty fun The pace there will be underwhelming at best but like from a We know where the ball is going. We know how to stack that game perspective. That's a pretty good game I like that one. Okay. Yeah, so That was one of so I think the other the other four games that we have with totals of at least 49 that's uh, this vikings packers game Seahawks cardinals, which I think we have at least concerns with seattle We have a spread concern potentially with the bills and colts and then we have We're really not a whole lot of concerns. I think with raiders bangles um But I run some game scores that I look at Basically your z score, which is like your standard deviations above and below the the main slate Um, I look at over under implied team totals pace and pass rates. So the pace and pass rates not updated It's just using what we had um entering this week, but um, kc. Dallas is getting a 4.85 Okay, um for context second up is seattle in arizona at a 2.15 and then third is uh, the raiders in bangles at a 0.74 so Basically this game that the chief's dallas game is Breaking the numbers here. Um, it's going to be the game of the week without any question And I do think that there are concerns everywhere else So I don't think there's at least one concern. Yeah, there's at least one concern So I don't think anything's going to be able to to best it. I don't think so either and it probably shouldn't either Okay, so let's go to a note to future me to close things up here brandon Based on what we learned this week based on what we talked about during the show based on your look at the week 11 Slate, what are things you're trying to remind yourself once you're filling out lineups later on this week? um ignore popularity projections for Dallas and kansas city basically um, I don't think that they'll get that like CD lamb and marie cooper didn't project to be very popular. I don't actually know off the top of my head Where they wound up? I should have had this pulled up. Um lamb 13 percent in the sunday million Cooper nine percent. So yeah I feel like it people don't like the market shares, which I totally get but um, That's the only knock that they have And then I would say really nitpick every other game at the top because right now I might prefer Raiders bangles To those other games with like higher profile offenses Like a mix and waller stack Mix and waller, uh, we get jamar chase back Um, oh, yeah Yeah, well the team goes on by one week and I forget who's on the team Yeah, and it's very possible that other people too just because you know sort of that out of sight out of mind situation Yep, uh, my note to feature me is something we talked about at the beginning where we're talking about mike evans and how He became less than a good player as we went along same thing with naji harris. Same thing with pat fryer muth My note is don't get locked in don't tie myself to players get infatuated with the idea of using them The point where I ignore other stuff other factors So I want to remind myself like Yes, don't forget what you were saying Make sure you account for the reasons you were there But if those reasons change if if factors that are in Consideration part of the reason you'll let the player changes Then shift if james connor loses kyler murray something You know, I kind of thought the cow was gonna play this week. Um, if he loses kyler murray, knock him down a decent amount If it was deandre hobkins knock him down if pat fryer muth loses his quarterback and has mason rudolf has his quarterback knock him down I think that like Don't do it for anything. I think we've talked about that, you know, not ignoring what we talked about But when there are tangible changes make sure i'm properly accounting for them and adjusting I think I did a decent job of that this week, but I want to make sure that that's something that I continue to do in the future yeah, and I Kind of like almost brag about this monday show because it's it's extremely helpful for me to go over All of this information all of the stuff while it's fresh looking at sort of untainted like well here's what I think about the broncos and Yeah, I like jerry judy fine. I like no offense fine But sometimes like if no offense gets talked up a ton for example I'm like I need to play no offense even though i'm like kind of lukewarm on him Yeah, those are the types of things that I try to advise against and I try not to to fall into myself But yes, even whenever we talk about situations on thursday Like james connor we like we both had him in our loves I didn't really love him by by sunday because a lot changed about our expectation and about the other Just sort of holistic parts of the slate. So if That the change caveat is key if things don't change don't forget That you like someone or didn't like someone Nothing's gonna change presumably with no offense, but like for example if people are loving him I and then drew locks don't Yeah Yeah, um, or even like if nothing changes Yeah, and you're you're not on someone those are the types of things that I've I've fallen to very easily And it's good not to change the world. Yeah, you know, we all are influenced by people But just like trying to stick to okay, if you know why you're not there sick to that That is all that we have here for today on this week 10 recap podcast But as alluded to we are going to be back here once again on thursday to talk about that cheese versus cowboys Game and talk about all the other games on the week 11 slate and break down a j dylan where those salaries wound up as well To get that podcast you can watch it live on youtube at 10 am on thursday 10 am eastern I should say as a now west coast guy for the next three hours I got to say on the eastern time 10 am eastern time on the fangirl youtube page and it'll be up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed After that as well to get that to search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast while you're there leave us rating your view and hit subscribe because that does help us out a bunch Brandon If people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? i'm at goodwill 13 g d u l a 1 3 And i'm at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fangirl podcast network at fangirl podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your single game monday night lineups We'll talk to you once again on thursday to get you set for week 11 This has been a heat shack fantasy podcast powered by number fire