 Hi, good morning and welcome to today's products and focus and I guess one of the big questions that we're kind of really looking at today is where is the bottom in crude oil, especially considering we're just a here's breath away from $30 a barrel on West Texas and Brent crude is not that far behind it. We're still seeing a little bit of a little bit of indecision in China. They just raised the yuan rate again from the stabilizer stock markets and a lot of the central bankers from right across the globe have kind of said we're not going to intervene. We're just going to go ahead now and let the markets be efficient and sort themselves out so traders don't have to keep on second guessing the central bankers. But really what we're seeing just now is a real staunch sell-off on the commodity markets right across the globe. Lots of questions still remain around the value of the US dollar and interest rate hikes and everything else. If you are really looking at crude oil as a barometer for the appetite for potential growth in like China and America and everything else, it's not really looking that good. With crude oil so cheap right now and people having been buying it up and storing it, apparently storage is becoming a big scarcity right now across the globe. With crude oil hitting 12 year lows this morning, when it breaks $30, that's a big psychological level and you've had Goldman's and JP Morgan both coming out with saying that sub $20 is possible. So when we look at crude oil in regards to the technicals, the next potential support level is closer to $27 and there's obviously multiple levels of support till you get all the way down to about $14 and then even $10 after the original Desert Storm Gulf conflict back in the 90s. But certainly where can crude oil go from here? Well I can tell you there's been a large number of people buying ETFs and trying to trade crude oil and they've been buying crude oil all the way down from over $100 and they've been buying it at $60, they've been buying it at $50, they've been buying it up at $30 as well. So just consider the fact that we could still see potentially lower values in crude, even with the conflict going on and the proxy conflict going on between Saudi Arabia and Iran and a lot of countries are getting hit quite hard by the lower oil price. What is really surprising actually is the resilience of the oil industry to a $30 barrel, $30 per barrel crude price because there was a huge concern that there's been huge massive layoffs all across America because of not even just across America but over the UK and I guess you'd have impacts in the Middle East and Russia and Venezuela and everything else that the market just couldn't weather that type of storm for very long. But we've been on the on the crude slump for what seems like forever and these markets are still doing quite well. Look at the non-farm payrolls report that we had there on Friday with 292,000 new jobs created. You do not see mass redundancies there but the question is what price point are we going to see a massive knock on effect because it doesn't feel that we've really had this mass exodus of employees from the oil industry yet but it will happen at some point but what is that sweet spot? I think as when we start to get below $30 and if we begin to get closer to $27 if that actually happens of course then there has to be a knock on effect when you get to that level but people keep on buying it and they think we're going to be doing it long term and buy and hold for the next five years. That's a risky strategy depending how deep your pockets are of course. So less about less about crude oil let's get back on to the rest of the global markets starting with our all favorite the US 30. So you can get a bit of a chance to to see where we are right now doji formation that we had yesterday we were much lower we rebound higher capped by that 16476 we've been negative so far today we have been lower as managed to recover a little bit seems to mortgage clients are currently 72% 72% short at the moment so they're obviously anticipating further downwards momentum the next potential support could be at 15,000 well close to 16,000 to be fair. So that's where we are for the US 30 the RSI is oversold the slow stochastic shows further room for maneuver and the MACD histogram is arguably beginning to accelerate right now as well so we could be looking at this level here has been potential resistance and this could be your next potential support. Moving on to the UK 100 for CBC Marks clients are buying this up trying to pick the bomb they are 90% long currently and that does give you a bit of a flavor of what to expect when you have a look at the support level right here around about 5886 we've got one support two three four five we had a gap lower yesterday and we've just slightly above it so far this morning but it's a tough market you can see we almost have these tips of these candles be almost exactly the same it looks to be that 5886 is going to be the potential support level and we'll see how that pans out later on today. We are trying below both moving averages MACD histogram is accelerating and the RSI is not yet oversold so that shows there could be extra room for further downwards pressure and the slow stochastic is kind of right in the middle so from a technical analysis perspective if we do begin to see a sell-off over in Asia again and the US comes off the UK market is obviously a kind of possession for further weakness obviously it's our exposure to the commodity markets that makes the UK 100 so particularly vulnerable so then have a look at Japan 225 very precarious at 17200 the Japan market the underlying market did come off a holiday there on Monday we are looking at 17200 as a potential support you could be looking at the tip of this candle here has been the next potential support while you look at 16440 being the next potential support level 96% of CMT markets clients by monetary value are currently buyers of the Japan 225 that is a significant level then looking at a dollar yen usually a proxy for how the Asian stock markets are doing but we are in the middle of two ranges right now between 118 spot 33 and 116 spot 80 the US dollar doesn't really know what it's doing right now a rate hike supposed to be three to four rate hikes expected in 2016 I think there's massive question marks over that just now in this market CMT markets clients are currently 71% long in this product and as I mentioned the potential support level is a little bit further down we are looking at the tip of this candle here has been that short-term potential support let me just kind of move out here a little bit more and you can kind of see where we've been actually dollar yen has been in a sideways moving market for some time but this is towards the bottom end of the scale is when we get towards 116 or worse yet towards the bottom of this candle right here that's when the whole makeup for dollar yen changes and obviously the yen is a safe haven asset people will be looking at gold and yen if you begin to see more uncertainty in the market let's look at crude oil and it is crude oil that everybody is really talking about right now 20 dollars 26 cents at the time of recording this video with the longer term potential support let me just go on to my monthly chart here for us to get a chance to see that you have to go quite far back here to get a real flavor of what's going on you could be looking at levels much lower than that even the 27 gets broken if you want to get really hardcore you could go with 17 dollars but it has been lower than that as I said back in Desert Storm back in the 90s where we're hitting about 10 dollars a barrel the people ask where is the bottom on crude oil well 10 dollars is probably the bottom on crude oil that gives you because that's where it's been before so the question that a lot of traders are thinking about will I buy it now I'm just hold no matter what happens well depending on on your view you could obviously go ahead and do that but there's a lot of pain that you can still have considering we just broke this on the monthly chart but we just broke that major low that we had at a height of the financial crisis we're even lower than that now that should be giving people a lot of cause for concern and certainly if we're looking at 27 dollars has been the next potential support we're in no man's land right now there's no other support levels to look at right here and you're looking at 3157 has been that potential resistance and we're at the bottom end of the range so far this morning and everybody's talking about it once it breaks 30 dollars I think you're going to see it on all the major news networks it's just gone down to 30 spot 24 right now 94 percent of same-seam markets clients are long they're obviously hoping that there's going to be a turnaround which of course there could obviously be some sort of bounce but when you're just looking at this trend just now it's been feeling the pain for a while it's down 20 percent in the last two weeks alone and that's why everybody's buying it to be fair 20 percent in two weeks is incredible so moving on to gold which is usually that safe haven asset even even gold can't get any luck right now gold came off a little bit yesterday it's not doing a huge amount today safe haven assets the end is probably where most traders are looking at based on where the charts are moving from a technical analysis perspective the MACDs cross the zero line the other technicals are neutral we're above both moving averages same-seam market clients are 50-50 on gold right now and when you look at a chart like this there's just not a huge amount happening so the yellow metal is not one of my favorites right now euro dollar is also a bit of a tough one to kind of gauge right now um same-seam clients are 79 short by monetary value we could be in a kind of a descending triangle formation here if we hadn't already have broken out one spot 0820 is a level that's been strategically important on this on this FX pair you can see it was important here we had a breakout here it worked as a potential resistance then we had another breakout support support technical breakout and then we're back into support as well and we could be in a sloping trend line right here which would form this kind of descending triangle formation the other technicals are flattening out um not if this is a triangle formation you would expect that it would trade within the triangle for traders out there you obviously don't want to trade inside the triangle you want to wait for the potential breakout if that's what's happening but it's getting a bit tougher uh to to gauge which direction euro dollar is going to go uh ultimately if they're not going to raise interest rates in in the US anytime soon you would think that that would have uh that people begin to reposition their dollar position at their dollar view but then it's not like the euro that's super strong as well people are talking about is are the eurozone is the eurozone going to reduce rates as well to combat the economic slowdown in china so big question marks over that but seems to market clients are confident that they've moved down 79 percent sure so GBP USD the only level that's really worth talking about is one spot 4568 which is the low right here which we have broken uh and we broke that on thursday and friday uh we had we tried to get back above it yesterday we had a failure to do so we're on the down we're on the bottom end of that range for by this morning the next potential support is all the way down at one spot 42 30 if i go into my weekly chart let's see if we can see that you that gives you a flavor of where we are so one spot 42 30 and one spot 35 10 uh those are the main support levels to be aware of seems to clients 86 percent short so they are pretty confident and this on the weekly chart it just gives you the chance to see that that that kind of move that we had yesterday got pushed back down again until we get above back above one spot 45 uh and and change back above this potential resistance level uh the bears will be out on uh cable so not a lot of love we're almost getting oversold right now the rs sign the slow slow stochastic just about to go into that area of uh of an early warning signal but the signal to buy it has not yet been given so that gives you a bit of an idea of what to expect so i'm just going to very quickly get my uh market calendar out as well this is for uh for today uh we do have some chinese data due later on uh that's four o'clock uk time and uh then you also do have your industrial production 9 30 uk time for tuesday and then fast forward onto wednesday overnight we do have some more chinese data so be aware of that and then we have some uh some asian data as well from japan and we've got of course crude oil inventories that's going to be quite an important one i think for wednesday so that gives you a bit of an idea of what to expect well guys thank you very much for uh for watching very good luck with your trading and join me again tomorrow to find out what happened next thank you very much and goodbye