 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the general disclosure. I'll book map the metamaterials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my contact information. If you have questions after the webinar or want to post content, any topics related to the topics of this of my presentation of this channel, the best place to do that is in Bookmap Discord, the Options-Doug Chat channel. You can ask any questions there. Also, I'm on Discord. That's the best way to contact me. Doug P is my name at Discord. And again, Options-Doug Chat channel and Discord, Bookmap Discord. And then finally, I'm on X, formerly known as Twitter. My name there is at Doug Plus. So that's the best way to contact me, the best ways to contact me. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Doug Chat channel and Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading. And the first is positional planning. I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day, as well as a directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups today, I will be talking about an underlying asset. And setups can be taken with futures, shares of stock or options. For example, looking at ES futures setups that I talk about today can be taken with futures, shares of spy, spy options, or SPX options. Questions and comments are welcome. And I will be watching both the Options-Doug Chat channel and Discord as well as to the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. And again, remember, if you have a question that comes up after the webinar for all of those of you who are in YouTube, the best way to contact me is in Discord. All right, Debra, hello. Glad you're here. Welcome. My agenda for today, what I want to cover, economic data, events and earnings for today as well as the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis, my planning for today. Then I'll review a few setups from this morning and then we'll take a look at the live market. So if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at when I get to the live market, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. All right, so let's start with the news items, economic data. There were a couple of reports this morning. First of all, the ADP Employment Report came out at 8 8.15 a.m. Eastern time. That was lower than expected. And then an 8.30 GDP report came out and that was also lower than expected. So bad news is good news. Both reports lower than expected and the market's trading higher today. All right, so tomorrow PCE data comes out. That's an important report. And then finally, the jobs report is on Friday. Both these PCE and jobs data at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. Again, PCE tomorrow, Thursday. And then the jobs data is on Friday at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. All right, let's get to positional analysis now. I'm going to start with BookMap. This is the ES Futures in BookMap. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger timeframe. I'm going to go to an SPX chart. This is a 30-day one-hour chart showing just price and key levels. So let's take a look at price first and then we'll focus on the levels. So this is the options expiration, the August options expiration. Somewhat of a balance, maybe a little bit more put-dominated options expiration, meaning traders are long puts, market-maker short puts that expire that expired on Friday. And that, when those puts expire, market-makers can buy back their short hedges and that help to fuel this put-vanna rally that is pretty typical in a negative gamma environment. So gamma-notional for the SB500 spy and SPX was quite negative. And again, that helped to fuel a put-vanna rally. Then there was a sharp drop lower the day before Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Suposium that was on Thursday. And then Friday, when the market interpreted whatever he had to say as not as bad as expected, the market rallied. And then here is the strong drop in treasury yields yesterday based on the weaker than expected data fueled a huge rally. And that appears to be more or less continuing higher today. All right, so key events, options expiration, Jackson Hole drop-in treasury yields all had a large impact on price. All right, let's take a look at some levels. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. This is for the week. This is based on the options market. And note that SPX is trading well above the upper weekly expected move. Then the dash blue lines, these change every day. This is lower and upper daily expected move. And note that SPX is trading just below the upper daily expected move. All right, so both those based on the options market, you can find these should be able to find this information in any trading platform that has an options chain. All right, let's take a look at these spot gamma levels. Now, those are shown with the dark red horizontal lines. I'll go over the key daily levels. These are proprietary spot gamma levels. First of all, there's the put wall at 4,300. That's a strike with a large net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. The next level up is the volatility trigger at 4,435. That is spot gamma's proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure, and that tends to subdue to enhance volatility. So negative gamma environment, market makers trading with price that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, like SPX is trading now above that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment, they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure, and that tends to subdue or decrease volatility. And note that, and we'll take a look at this in a minute, SPX, gamma notional at the beginning of the day, was positive. And again, SPX trading well above its volatility trigger in a positive gamma environment. And the next level up is the 4,500 level. That is the call wall. That's the strike with the largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance. And above that level, spot gamma considers SPX to be overbought, overextended. And they have statistics that show that the one day and five day returns after a breach of the call wall are negative. And that is also the absolute gamma strike. That's the strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma. And we'll look at that 4,500 strike, look at the absolute gamma in just a minute and see how important that level is. And there were shifts higher in levels for the SPX. First of all, the volatility trigger shifted slightly higher today. And then the most important, the absolute gamma strike shifted higher to 4,500 from 4,400 yesterday. So that's bullish. And then on the other hand, even with the rally yesterday, the call wall for SPX did not shift higher. It did shift higher for the SPI for SPI. And the call wall yesterday for SPI at 4,46 was somewhat of a technicality. And again, we'll look at the absolute gamma strikes in just a minute and see how important the 4,50 level is for SPI and the 4,500 for SPX. All right, so those are the key daily levels. SPX trading above the upper weekly expected move, the volatility trigger and the call wall. So that is a 30-day chart. Let's take a closer look at a one-day chart. Zoom out just a bit. So these are the levels that are in play for today. Here's the call wall, 4,500. And then the upper daily expected move that has more or less been acting as resistance. Price has not been able to get up above that level. All right, let's take a look at book map now. So in book map, I have my cloud notes and I have the SPX level shown on this chart. So here's the 4,500 call wall. And that's also the absolute gamma strike for SPX. And then here's the SPI 450 absolute gamma strike call wall. And if we scroll, scrunch this up just a little bit, we'll see the upper daily expected move for ES at the top of the screen here. All right, let me point out that there is a difference in the price and the points between ES and SPX. And today it's around a little bit over 8, 8 and a half. I'm using 8. So I'm showing SPX, the 4,500 absolute gamma strike call wall at ES 4508. So ES minus SPX equals around 8. It's a little bit more. All right, so the levels in play for today, the upper daily expected move and the call walls. So the SP500 trading now above the call walls for SPI and SPX and a little bit overextended at this point. All right, let's just take a look at, for some reason, it's not showing the lower portion of the screen here. Just want to point out the support level this morning after the sharp drop right around 10.15 is the SPI 449 level. All right, so those levels in play for today, SPI 449, the call walls 4,500, 450 and then the upper daily expected move. All right, I talked about shifts and levels for the SPX, absolute gamma strike shifted higher and for SPI, the volatility trigger shifted higher, the put wall shifted higher and the call wall shifted higher and the absolute gamma strike shifted higher. So most important, the call wall and absolute gamma strike now are both at 450. So very bullish shifts higher in the, in SPI, all the key daily levels shifted higher. All right, so that's the SPI 500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ now. Here's NASDAQ and we'll take a look at QQQ chart in just a moment and see the 374 level that's the zero gamma level acted as support and the 377 level acted as resistance. Let's take a look at a QQQ chart. We can confirm, confirm that. So here's the 377 level that acted as resistance this morning and now price is oscillating around that level and here's 374 level that acted as support this morning. This level for some reason on this script that's available from SPOT Gamma to subscribers is not showing this 374 level as the zero gamma level. It's not, not shown in red, but it is the zero gamma level. All right, so range today for the NASDAQ 377 on the upper end of the range and 374 on the lower end of the range. Let's take a look, let's take a quick look at NDX and there really no NDX levels directly in play for today. There's the 15,500 large gamma two level up above. Let's go back to book map now NASDAQ. So again, price chopping around that 377 level QQQ 377 level as well as the NQ 15,500 level with the upper daily expected move up above and there's that NDX 15,500 level right shifts and levels for NASDAQ. The put wall for NDX did shift higher and is was strange move higher yesterday. The put wall is above the call wall for NDX and it moved even higher and then for QQQ the volatility trigger shifted slightly higher put wall shifted lower but the call wall shifted higher and that's most significant from 370 yesterday to 385. So theoretically giving the NASDAQ more room to run to the upside for QQQ. Again the call wall most this is a more most important shift for QQQ 385 370 to 385 for the call wall and also for NDX the absolute gamma strike also also shifted higher to 15,000 and that's the level that has been in play for quite a few days I've talked about that. Alright let's take a look at gamma notional we'll see how market makers were positioned at the beginning of the day and look at gamma notional for SPX, SPI and QQQ note that the all these shifted higher so now SPX gamma notional is positive market makers position on the gamma curve is was positive at the beginning of the day. So in this case in this situation traders are short puts market makers are long calls and they have to so traders are long puts short calls market makers long calls and they have to sell futures as price increases to hedge their delta exposure and then slightly still slightly negative for SPI but less negative than yesterday and then now pretty much neutral for QQQ just slightly negative. Alright let's take a look at some information for SPX I do want to focus pretty quickly on this these absolute gamma levels going to look at 4500 here very clearly the absolute gamma strike the strike with the largest absolute gamma orange bar showing positive gamma call gamma the blue bar showing negative gamma put gamma and that is the again the absolute gamma strike and the call wall and we'll take a quick look at SPI again gamma concentrated at the 450 level 450 is the absolute gamma strike and the call wall. Alright so that's where those those levels come from let's go back to SPX take a look at one other thing this is the Vana model what this chart is showing is market makers delta notional on the vertical axis and how that changes with changes in price shown on the horizontal axis there are two curves on this chart the gray curve is showing how market makers delta notional changes of changes in price only and then the purple curve is showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility and that change in delta with a change in implied volatility is the the Vana effect and so Vana is a second order Greek let's take a look at see where SPX is trading right now whoops so SPX dropped down so found resistance again at the 45 just below the upper daily expected move right now trading around 45 11 so let's locate that on this chart so that's right around the bottom of the curve so the point of looking at this so what this means is let's say SPX was way up here increase in price market makers would have to buy back short hedges but in the case today in this positive gamma environment this portion of the curve is really a more more important so this is indicating in a positive gamma environment market makers have to trade against price as price increases their delta notional increases and they have to sell futures so right now SPX is trading just right around the bottom of this curve so there is no Vana tailwind like there has been the last few days and the negative gamma environment that Vana tailwind put Vana tailwind is gone it's all that fuel is all burned up for any boosting a rally higher and we can just take a look at how this curve has shifted for the last few days so this is today more typical curve for a positive gamma environment and then yesterday gamma notional was negative slightly negative this curve a little bit certainly more typical of a negative gamma environment and then this is the day before on Monday that gamma notional was even more negative so a shift from negative to slightly negative to positive today and Joe I I'm not sure what happened to your post I was going to take a look at that it was kind of lengthy I'd like to take a look at that if you if you looks like you deleted it in discord I'll be glad to take a look at that it was just a little bit too long for me to take a look at during my webinar all right so that is the information that I look at for for my planning process positional analysis so based on this my thesis for the day was first of all looking for lower volatility then the last few days because of the positive gamma environment and also really looking for more mean reversion to about SPX 4500 considering price trading above that level to be somewhat overextended overbought all right let's take a look at some setups now I'm going to start with the SP 500 let's zoom in on the morning session so strong rally this morning really supported by aggressive buyers you can see all the green volume dots market by my minus cell a lot of aggressive buyers in there when the when the dot is green that buy minus sell they're more buyers than sellers that's what drives price higher also buy stop orders so the dark blue line that's cumulative volume Delta and indication of the aggressive buyers the rising yellow line is showing buy stop orders fueling the move higher also shown by these small green dots and these numbers here and notice on the way up that larger traders start to sell with iceberg orders that's shown by this falling light blue line so as price starts moving up toward that upper daily expected move these are not really extremely large numbers but large traders are selling with iceberg orders and we'll take a look now and see what options traders were doing off let's go take a look at hero this chart is the hero signal hedging impact real-time options the white line is price for SP X the purple line is the hero signal for a combined signal whoops wrong tool combined signal for SP X spy XSP and ES futures all combined into one signal so if you trade any form of the SB 500 this is really what you want to take a look at alright so let's take a closer look at this chart so again a combined signal for SP X purple line showing options trades market maker hedging flow for the SB 500 going to zoom in so this is the right here this is 9 30 a.m. Easter time the beginning of the cash session and what stands out to me as price was increasing there was really a little support very little support from options traders so not really aggressively buying calls or selling puts and then this hero line started to diverge lower there was one last little push higher and then options traders started taking aggressively taking negative delta positions so we know that going back to book map now so we know that the move higher was fueled by aggressive buyers as well as bystop orders we know from looking at hero that options traders started taking negative delta positions and we also know that larger traders were selling were fading this move higher with their large orders they used to hide their size so it took a while for this to play out it was more a lot more clear in the in the Nasdaq a very sharp move up sharp move down right at the 377 level we'll take a look at that in just a minute so anyway this set up a nice short very sharp drop and you can see the couple of trend breaks there and then aggressive sellers really start to come in shown by the pink volume dots there magenta showing more aggressive sellers than buyers and notice this stop line and also the CVD starts flattens out so it's rising flattens and then starts to drop sharply lower as aggressive sellers come in and options traders taking negative delta positions and so the basis for this setup that's the order flow that's what I'm watching but the basis really was looking for a reversion to the mean a move back down towards the SPX 4500 and spy 450 right let me check for questions Truman asked do market makers shift from being short calls and long puts to long calls and short puts and does that shift their gamma exposure from negative to positive in that order let's take a look at a go take a look at something so this is for SPX this is the this is the gamma curve so yeah you know when you know the when the current position moves around on this gamma curve that's the that's the shift let's see where if we can find the so there's the volatility trigger right around there so that is still that's not the zero gamma level but that is it's close so this is where the shift occurs and you know that doesn't mean necessarily that above that level market makers position is totally long calls and and short puts but it's shift the balance is shifting and that is that you know that's where this shift occurs so true but I hope that answers your question all right so that's the S&P 500 again no support from options traders in the morning and the aggressive buyers and sell-stop orders that kind of dries up and large traders selling with iceberg orders and that leads to this nice short quick drop lower let's go back to and that was good for almost let's say two and a half spy points even if you got in at 451 and price dropped down to 449 that level acted to support right let's zoom right so since then price has reversed higher and more of a sharp move up sharp move down to the more of a grind up and now rolling back over let's take a look at NASDAQ so pretty similar action and NASDAQ just I thought a more clear read this sharp this reversal at 377 was first of all very very clean at exactly at that level so anticipating that level that I look at every QQQ round number level as potential support or resistance and watch order flow to confirm confirm that and you know as we can see here QQQ 370 almost to the tick acting as resistance QQQ 374 zero gamma level almost to the tick acting as support so here's the setup this break of this wedge right at the 375 level NASDAQ takes off higher pretty similar situation to the S&P 500 aggressive buyers start to come in you can see all the green volume dots rising cumulative volume Delta also by stop orders shown by the rising orange yellow line as well as the small green dots there that levels off and then aggressive sellers start to come in you can see by the magenta dots more sellers than buyers let's see what options traders were doing go back to hero take a look at NASDAQ so nice not real not perfectly clear because of this little bump up but that was starting to set up a nice nice divergence short let's go take a look at NASDAQ now here's NASDAQ and again this is a combined signal here for NASDAQ for NDX and QQQ zoom in on this and you know there was a pretty strong confluence between option trades hedging flow and price action both long and short will zoom in this morning to the morning session becomes a little bit more clear so not really a divergent setup like the S&P 500 and more of a just a confirmation for the short right around 1015 so that's NASDAQ and one thing that I forgot to do let's go back to the S&P 500 I'm going to separate outputs and calls so we can get a more clear signal not what traders are doing and this makes that short setup even more clear when you look at at the morning setup that traders were buying puts from the open let's just zoom in on that and Joe I think this might have been what Joe was showing zoom in on this a little bit more so from the open traders were buying puts started buying puts more aggressively and they stopped buying calls that were buying calls they stopped buying calls started selling calls right here and that was a great confirmation of a short right around 1015 so Truman that did answer your question great you're welcome and trade and sale hello glad you're here and thank you for your kind words there alright so here's more more in depth about the S&P 500 short setup and again Joe I think this might have been what you were posting let's take a look at NASDAQ will keep the puts and calls broken out zoom in on this so similar in the in the morning here you can see that call buyers helping to drive price higher they take their foot off the gas and traders were it looks like selling puts start buying puts price moves lower so separate separating out puts and calls gives us more clarity alright so those the index products let's take a look at a few stocks going to take a look at Nvidia here this is for me this has been the stock that has provided the best trades the most clarity in the last at least the last couple of weeks hedging flow very giving very strong signals as well as order flow so we'll start with Nvidia and the thing that I want to point out is first of all there was you know again strong confirmation for short first thing in the morning that along the short again and notice right here this flow alert and this is something new may not be available to everyone I'm on the on the beta group but this is looks like provided a great signal there's no way of telling from this that's maybe hard to see but it's a little yellow dot I don't know if it was I assume that was a long signal you know it certainly would make sense to be a long signal and that was a great signal for a long so let's go take a look at book map go to this up go to Nvidia so here's that flow signal right at I have it have it with the red rectangle there let's zoom in and note that 500 is the that's the call wall and the key gamma strike and that is definitely the target that's in play pretty clear to read shift in order flow for Nvidia notice all the magenta volume dots on the gray on the way down some green dark start to come in and then Nvidia makes this final push down to 487 and then aggressive buyers start to come in and just a very clear line of aggressive buyers shown by the green volume dots in confluence with that hero alert from spot gamma all right let's go go back to hero now we'll separate outputs and calls Truman says Nvidia look like morning price was driven by call buyers who were buying dip and selling rip until about 1130 all right let's take a look at that separate outputs and calls so traders were and that's a good observation thank you Truman so looks like the put line is pretty flat not really significant so this notion of value so they are buying puts but right now that is 3.4 5 million negative versus call buyers right now at 98 positive 98 million so quite a difference call buyers have much more of an influence on price action in Nvidia and Truman you're right they were selling calls wrong tool selling calls at the open sorry selling calls buying calls then started buying calls again helping the drive price higher and here is the 500 call wall key gamma strike right let me look for questions right so trading sales says if flatten out is short had a great trading day it was you who led my way back to day trading thanks again you're very welcome thank you thank you very much for your kind words I really appreciate it that makes my day when when what I'm doing can really help someone again thank you very much and glad you're here and glad this is helping all right so there's Nvidia for me again the stock that has provided the best trades the most the easiest to read order flow when hedging flow all right let's take a look at a couple of other stocks real quick I've got Microsoft what I was looking at here was this divergent short notice sharp drop in hero and then price follows a few minutes later just below the 330 call wall key gamma strike that could be expected to act as resistance let's go take a look at book map take a look at Microsoft and let's zoom back out on Nvidia so Nvidia not quite making it up to the 500 call wall let's go to Microsoft right so here's the 330 call wall somewhat like the SAB 500 a little bit of a chop up and down before the sharp sharp drop lower right around 1015 and then you can zoom in on this just a little bit see the shift in order flow really also somewhat of a lack of liquidity but nothing but magenta volume dots so good for two and a half points in Microsoft let's go take a look at Tesla now all right there were some alerts in Tesla as well so let's go take a look at hero we'll focus on the alerts first and then we'll we can see what we'll take a look at what options traders doing so for the day options traders have been they've been buying puts all day it looks like somewhat like Nvidia call buyers sellers buyers driving price action and then finally traders start selling calls continue buying puts and price reverses lower all right let's take a look at these alerts so here is one alert so slow to Zari says some Nvidia news just coming in what we'll go back to Nvidia in just a moment so here's one alert right around 1020 another alert all right so slow to Zari said Biden blocks sale of Nvidia AI chips to Middle East over China fears so that what we'll take a look at NASDAQ and Nvidia in just a minute so here these flow alerts so first of all 1020 and the next one right around 1254 all right so let's go back to book map now so here's the first alert that I have circled here so that was a great alert for short same here so two very good alerts hero alerts for for Tesla go back and take a look at hero again so this was this was right around the time that most everything else moved lower so again nice nice alert short set up for Tesla there let's go back and take a look at hero back the total signal so Tesla there were options traders market maker hedging at Kivi setting up short long short then along again it looks like most of the alerts were for for shorts so right now options traders are definitely taking negative delta positions I would certainly not be looking for a long and Tesla and notional value for the day is negative minus 300 million so again traders have been buying puts all day and started selling calls right around 1230 well let's take a look at Nvidia see what sort of impact that news had on Nvidia so it doesn't appear to have infected affected Nvidia too much right trading sale enjoy your evening glad to see you here today have a great evening and hope to see you tomorrow all right let's take a look and see what's happening with ES first so a lot of aggressive sellers came in right around looks like right around 145 can see all the magenta volume dots large traders coming in iceberg orders let's see what options traders are doing so price still slightly above spy 450 and SPX 4500 looks like more aggressive sellers this light blue line is VWAP so price breaking below VWAP let's take a look at hero the SP 500 so options traders have been taking negative delta positions it looks like that has accelerated a little bit remember price over extended above the spy and SPX call walls notional value for today pretty negative minus 2.92 billion so options traders definitely fading this move let's just see what they're doing so they're still buying puts still buying calls or actually there they have stopped buying calls but this notion of value for calls is still positive so net for the day they have been buying calls SPX spy ES XSP they've also been buying puts just a steady very steady process of buying puts all day and the put number is minus 3.2 billion versus positive 265 billion so put buyers definitely more aggressive today let's take a look at NASDAQ and really not a lot of clarity here up and down signal traders buying calls buying puts it looks like call buyers more aggressive but price is still moving lower holy Trinity says what's up team love this channel thank you very much glad you're here welcome more clarity definitely for me from the SP 500 more consistent with options traders taking negative delta positions so prices trending lower the move lower supported by options traders we just saw that also aggressive sellers shown by the following cumulative volume delta there was some support the iceberg orders that was not there was no follow-up to that iceberg orders have leveled off and no stop orders that are starting to decline now a little bit so more sell stops starting to come in so now SMB 500 approaching the spy 450 level and then the SPX 4500 level below that would be the the next two targets so NASDAQ sort of rolling over maybe maybe finding support at 450 all right my time is up I want to thank everyone for watching thanks for your questions and comments again remember my contact information if you have questions after this webinar you can contact me on discord Doug P you can post content information related to the topics of my presentation of the channel and the options dash Doug chat channel in in bookmap discord and then also watch for me on on Twitter X all right everyone thank you very much for watching thanks for your questions and comments remember PCE data tomorrow morning we'll talk about that tomorrow afternoon and I will see you tomorrow thanks again bye