 First close below supply so now you have two areas of support coming in for tomorrow You got 912 and if the bears start taking control of that 912 910 level Welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success Profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and own your future Hey guys getting your buddy welcome to another edition of the access a trader calm nightly wrap up show if everybody is Doing well. I haven't been with you guys for a couple of days a couple of literally two days ago I started feeling under the weather You know head cold this that the other thing fatigued the next day yesterday. I felt a little worse And the next thing I know We're getting an email from school. My son comes down with COVID You know and then the world comes as everybody knows who have young children, you know scattering throughout the house 105 fever my son had now he's back down to like 101. He's a tough kid. He's gonna fight through it But as you can imagine all hell broke loose We had to get the house together everybody had to separate all this stuff. And in the meantime I'm going through my old thing. So I went to got tested Fortunately, I got a negative. I have no idea how but I got a negative reading My sons in corn well isolation now Apparently, I'm just fighting something and apparently you could still get sick and it's not COVID But apparently it sucks. So hopefully everybody is safe Hopefully everybody is healthy. That's the most important part. So What a crazy couple of days yesterday, you know, this really incredible move Kind of like Batman and you know in Superman coming to save the bulls At the 50-day moving average on the cues and again, this was tested You know, this has been tested several times here on the 50-day moving average and each time the bulls came back in And really started catapulting the market higher, but there was nothing bigger than what we saw yesterday The day started out pretty good. You had Boeing that we talked about on the short side a couple of days Broke down yesterday really really good breakdown. Yes, they will talk about bowling in a second. I think it goes lower You had a lot of names getting really soft testers of the world which had a really Incredible really incredible move today again, we'll get to that in a second but the most important part was everybody's waiting for the Fed and I Will say this much, you know, I'm not I'm not a big believer in you know reading blogs and all that stuff But you know whenever you do go into a financial site, you always hear people complaining about the Fed Well, if it wasn't for the Fed printing money if it wasn't for the Fed if it wasn't for the Fed the market would be in Shambles well again. Yeah. Yes, you're right, right? He absolutely right the Fed started buying back mortgage back securities all the way around 2008 2009 That was the mortgage. That was the mortgage crisis again They were the backbone, right? They were the stabilizing force The tapering really never came, you know, they talked about tapering for years and years and years. We really haven't seen it They're still in a very very aggressive program. They started talking about, you know, three-rate hikes Going into this year, you know, we'll see but the most important part is the investor, right? The investor you can't have it both ways You can't talk about bitching complain about the Fed is the only reason that the market is holding up And then sit there in the fetal position underneath your desk praying to God That when the market goes lower and the market has been in a very very aggressive sell-side bias You can't sit there and pray to God that, you know, the market is going to save you. Guess what? That's the Fed, right? So you can't have it both ways So yesterday the Fed induced rally that so many people are saying how come the Fed is propping up the prices Well, if it wasn't for the Fed yesterday, you would have confirmed the 50-day moving average And you would be having the conversation somewhere around here. So you can't be a little bit pregnant. Yes guys There's a lot of outside forces in the market. There's the Fed, right? There's a lot of technology There's fun managers. There's retail. Everybody plays a part But it's very very tough to turn around and say if this doesn't happen, this doesn't happen It's one big cycle Okay, if it wasn't for the Fed yesterday instead of this majestic $14 candle in the cues. Well, we would have been breaking down very very aggressively So the next time you turn around and say well, if it wasn't for the Fed, just keep this in mind If it wasn't for the Fed, look where your position was it would be So there's always a place for something in the market. It all depends how you look at that force Okay, people always complain about algorithms. Oh, they're algorithms and controlling the market Well, the algorithms could control the market if you're on the wrong side of the technical trade If you're on the right side of the technical trade the algorithms are your friend What do you think Tesla puts up a $12 candle for mom and pop buying three shares on Wall Street bets It doesn't work that way. It's the algorithm. So everything does have a place in the market The only question is how are you positioned right? How are you positioned in that place to capitalize on all these outside forces instead of sitting there complaining Which you already have no control of what's going on The only thing you have control what's going on is your your risk management your process and your ability to read market sentiment Everything else you don't have control But at least you have control enough to understand that all things happen There's nothing you could do about it and you're trying to put yourself on the side that there's the high probability Where these things will play out so again before you start complaining about the Fed and the algorithms and the market makers And your mother-in-law and everything else and the New York Jets and Satan and everything else in the world That's bad and good. Take a step back. Take your trading into into your own hands. There is no boogeyman There is no behind the curtain. It's your investment since your trading strategy against everything else The most important thing is be mindful be respectful of the market where the market will respect you will humble you very very Aggressively indeed. So where are we right? Where are we after this majestic? You know phenomenal rise? Off the 50-day moving average on the 50-day well We kind of made you know We kind of made a really aggressive U-turn and went right back to the 50-day moving average So today it wasn't the Fed right today is just a natural course of what we've seen now for the last three four seven days The sellers are obviously in control Technologies here has continued to be sold even names the most aggressive names like Apple That were really, you know pushing up the market news kind of like the last Defense of the technology sentiment will eventually got sold as well and here we are again So it's not about what happened yesterday It's not about what happened three weeks or three weeks ago or three months ago It's where we are now and this is the most important part if you guys notice we've now touched and tested Successfully if you're a bull successfully, we've tested the 50-day moving average one two three four five times Now the question is how long right how long can the market defend the 50-day moving average? If you guys have been watching this broadcast, you know how important that 50-day is for example again We talk about the remount off the October 18 lows excuse me October 18 highs On the cues and this started basically a three month very very aggressive rally So you can see why the 50-day moving average is so important So the question is how long can the bulls keep the dam right keep the dam in one place before the levy breaks And the water starts filtering out That's the question that we have to answer going into tomorrow because again if you look at How many names are sitting on the bottom of their channels and how many names are imminent breaking down at the bottom of the channel? You could only you could only imagine that Eventually the bottom of this channel will get broken now that that's the magic question Is it going to be broken tomorrow? Is it going to be broken on Monday, right? Is it going to be broken groundhogs day? Nobody day or is it going to be broken at all? We don't know right that's the whole point of technical analysis and why we respect levels and Trade to make our assessment off that levels. We're not guessing. It's going to break charts are telling us It looks like it's going to break it smells like it's going to break it tastes like it's going to break But we don't know if it's going to break Having said that you know, I'm 99 sell by is going into tomorrow because that's where the charts are Looking at the only one that looks pretty decent for tomorrow is if you believe in the whole, you know We're going to raise rates three times going into Next year the one of the financials of the play and if you can see if if the 50-day moving average is important to defend Right while the 50-day moving average on the upside is very very important to reclaim So if you believe in the whole financials, there are going to benefit from the interest rate hikes Well, this is the 50-day moving average on Goldman Sachs So if Goldman Sachs gets above this 50-day moving average, maybe the financials could have a much bigger run than like three days Every three and a half months. So that's on a watch But but look how many stocks you have on the bottom of the ranges. Look at CRM, right? CRM is literally one day away two days away Whatever the case may be is sitting on the bottom of the range if this thing confirms the bottom of the range This thing is going to get imploded right really really big move look at Microsoft, right? Had this really really big move up really really big move down And this thing now is varying the Nasdaq 100 one two three four five times on the 50-day But if this 50-day gets lost tomorrow, look how much room down you have $15-$17 worth of room down that is going to mirror the Nasdaq 100 itself again There's a lot of value here look at a name like INMD look how many times it's tested now the 50-day moving average Excuse me the 150-day moving average one two three four eventually if this thing starts building down Look how much room it has to go and you're gonna find a lot of names like that even a name like Boeing Who is not at the bottom of the range the point is it looks like it's one or two days away It's held 190 several times now just the same way it held 195 several times a couple days ago from the really really good pivot So if this thing confirms the channel, it's gonna go all the way down to this bottom range here Maybe go goes all the way down to 185 so it's not that I'm cheering for the bulls to give up control I'm just looking at reality if you know there is a snowstorm outside and they're in there and they're predicting You know four feet of snow You don't you know take your toddler dress them up in flip-flops Right and a tank top and put them outside You're preparing for this and even if the weatherman is wrong at least you're not caught off guard So what we're going going going into tomorrow's session There's tons of value to the short side the question is are they going to confirm and the biggest one again Which was which was realistically the only one you really needed today is Tesla right Tesla You know held that 930 level Macro several times if you guys watched if you if you're an active participant today You saw how many times they find they were defending that 930 level and then finally just like what we talked about I'm trying to prepare for tomorrow's session Eventually the levee broke right it took out that 930 level Only one doubt you know only one down to 921, but we'll get you we'll show you that the macro pivot were Where was a phenomenal trade? But the point is look how much room now it has to go and that's the most important part You don't sit there and hope and pray it comes back Maybe it does maybe it doesn't but again you're collecting data to trade off that data Responsibly in case you're instead of hoping and praying that your position will work So going into tomorrow a lot of good value on the sell side We're gonna once again watch the cues to see if the bears finally take control over the below the 50-day moving average And if that's the case you're gonna see a lot of pretty good aggressive downside pressure We'll see we'll see so yeah, I mean I was waiting for you know I had a whole bunch of pivots to the upside today You know figure you know listen, you know, we had this big big move yesterday You know are they gonna confirm today I was watching Qualcomm I was watching Marvel I was watching Costco all these things right all these stocks. I was watching And then they never got close. Okay, and slowly but surely as the open happened people are saying well You know bears gonna get trapped again on the first cell off They're gonna get trapped and watch we're gonna go green again and everything's gonna explode day, too Yeah, okay. I was listen. I was in that camp as well I was watching Qualcomm to the upside Marvel to the upside Costco to the upside on the video to the upside Right, I was watching it and slowly but surely when they started pulling these things and there was no bounce Now you start to talk about plan B and it's a very very important bear Essence of training whatever doesn't go up right must go and that's exactly what happens So slowly but surely the bottom channels on all your favorite technology names started to get hit one by one by one and We noticed that Tesla never rallied on that first push of the market and now is the most important part and This is where I mean This is basically the the one and only of the day and this was a monster monster move and now This is the first close today below macro. So all the stuff didn't confirm right now I know these alongside pivots confirmed But Tesla second entry for experienced traders only 988 if it builds below can flush So the first move was only a couple of points because again, nobody anticipated Nobody anticipated a complete push So the first move was into this rising support and then we started looking at it over and over and over again And it started losing big big levels But the key one was this 953 level and I started tweeting about it on my regular tweeting Twitter account So that 953 just kept on holding and holding and holding if you look at the five And if you look at the support here where the hell was it if you look at the support here here is right here If you look at this whole 953 support It was holding up several times and again just like we talked about a few minutes ago Potential levy breaking it finally broke and this thing just got absolutely hammered And not only did it come down from the 988 level and confirm 955 It finally confirmed the bottom of this channel here, which is 930. You can see here It held several times first closed below supply So now you have two areas of support coming in for tomorrow You've got 912 and if the bears start taking control of that 912 910 level Then you got all the way to 875 and 854 again. It's not fear mongering It's it's not the point of you know trying to will a stock you direction You know stocks go up stocks go down. I love Tesla. I traded the long side I traded to the short side. I'm not a bull. I'm not a bear and I'm an opportunist And the most important part is You know taking the side right taking the side where technical analysis is backing your Is backing your thesis instead of hoping and praying that somebody comes in with the 1200 calls and some You know giga giga factory news to rise the stock again. So there's a lot of value in tesla I think if it confirms today's channel tomorrow, you can see a lot more room Down to the downside. So, you know again a lot of good move there As well. I think that was the only one to the downside AMD obviously again I had a lot of pivots to the upside today. There was nothing even close to that confirmed Yeah, they were coming in for the 900 puts right they were coming in for the 900 weekly puts just a phenomenal phenomenal move On tesla. Let me give you guys some names that I like for tomorrow Tesla I still like obviously CRM I'm watching on the bottom channel here. That looks good Rivian Rivian came out with earnings after the close. Not good. Not bad I'm watching this hundred level here if it starts building below this hundred level here. It should see IPO lows I like ambarella to the downside as well First really aggressive candle first close below the 50 day moving average if this thing confirms There's another 15 points in this thing as well. That looks good I mentioned before i and md, you know, this thing is like a day away from confirming the bottom channel as well So the value is definitely to the downside. Uh, again, can the market go higher tomorrow? Who the hell knows? Okay, i'm wrong every single day. It's not about uh being you know, being wrong theoretically It's about being wrong financially and obviously if the bulls start reclaiming macro channels Hey, you just buy stock but but the vice the theory That psychology and everything else in between is to is pointing to the downside tomorrow We will see don't anticipate don't forecast but be prepared and that's the name of the game guys God bless. Hope everybody stays healthy. I'm gonna go get some rest and with God's help. I will see you all tomorrow