 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are already entering week number nine in the NFL which feels pretty wild to say and That's a that's sad because these are already almost halfway done at the season But I think entering week nine some pretty good numbers to bet and some fun teams to bet on and I feel pretty excited about For this week will break down which ones those are where I'm seeing value across week nine also take a look at game number 3 in the World Series for today welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sannis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to take a look at week number nine The NFL and also break down world series game number three fine solo for today to break down all of those We'll have college football coming tomorrow with that fang We'll have our NFL week nine full preview coming up Thursday with Ryan Williams and our player prop breakdown With JJ Zacharyson coming up on Friday So a lot of good stuff and a lot of good guests across the week here on Covering the spread before we dive into all that though a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get Your podcast we of course are an apple podcast Spotify stitcher Google podcasts. 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Well on last week's show if you want to skip ahead to the World Series game 3 preview if you are trying to bet that before Those games that King gets underway There is a timestamp available in the description Over on number fire comm in the episode description wherever you get your podcasts Let's zero in an NFL week number 9 right now though And like I said some pretty fun teams to bet on here and teams that I'm excited to bet against as well The first one is one that I'm super into and that's the Jags money line at plus one of six against the Raiders I'm actually Kind of surprised we didn't see a bigger reaction to the Raiders flop Against the Saints last week my model likes a Jags quite a bit They are a team that are efficient early downs both on offense and a defense That's a pretty big portion of my 2022 only model and that's why that model likes them I think that maybe what we're seeing here is a reaction to some of the rough throws that Trevor Lawrence has you know He's had great moments, but he's also had some bad moments And we can have like this negative highlight bias in our minds And maybe we're getting a bit of that with Lawrence here and that's dragging the Jags down My traditional model the one that I like has the Jags when odds at 55 percent We're getting plus money here. So pretty good value there and again the 2022 only model is also higher on the Jags here It kind of hates the Raiders specifically their defense. So I feel good about betting on the Jags I feel good betting against the Raiders here. The scheme is in Jacksonville So I'll take the Jags money line at plus one of six my first bet of the week The second one is one that I was pretty surprised by because my traditional model Has a super high a prior on the Chargers They were among the best teams in that model preseason. They were a team I wanted from a like an ASC West perspective from an ASC perspective and that prior is still in there Now it has been tweaked because we're Sean Slater's injury enjoyed both his injury So the prior now is not as good as it was entering the year, but that prior is still in there and it was still very high but That model says I should take Atlanta on the money line plus 140 against the Chargers here And I honestly don't disagree the Chargers will not have Mike Williams here. They are coming off a buy Which helps they should get key to now and back to full health now But this team can't afford to lose juice. They can't afford to lose Big play ability and Mike Williams despite not being like fast has juice He has it that downfield ability that not a lot of guys in this offense have this Falcons defense is hideous They're really bad. They've got a lot of injuries in the secondary And they're they're they're rough, but they're offence is super efficient on early down I don't know how they're efficient, but but they are efficient my traditional model says I should bet the Falcons as it has this game being A toss-up so plus 140 is good there my 2022 only model has the Falcons favorite I will caveat this by saying that I built that other model the secondary model Because I was annoyed last year with how often my number said to bet the Chargers I thought that model is overrating them because they were this team that was Inefficient early downs they'd rely on Justin Herbert's late-down heroics to bail them out So I was like, okay I need to tweak some things to account for teams that are like this because it's not sustainable and the Chargers miss the playoff So I think that was you know indication that was the right way to go So this model was built specifically to work against the Chargers So it's not a shock that 2022 model says I should bet against them But when you pair that with the traditional model, which has a very high prior on the Chargers saying to bet against them I'm very okay going here So that's the Falcons money line plus 140 a mighty fine way to go for me The final one I'm locking in right now is the Colts plus five and a half That's on the road against in England and I thought Sam Elinger played decently well in his first start Based on the opponent when you adjust for the team they played They exceeded expectations when throwing an early downs in that game. That's when they did not do it Mount Ryan there about 0.04 above average with Sam Elinger. They were minus 0.04 with Matt Ryan So I think that's encouraging We've also seen New England really struggle with rushing quarterback Justin Fields skewered them They've had some games against the Marjax and what they've done really well now Elinger is not as fast as those guys So that could be a bit different but Elinger did run a lot in college. He ran six times in his debut He's not fast. So maybe that's a difference because like you look at New England's defense The lack of speed is kind of the main thing that sticks out. So maybe having Elinger be a runner but not a burner could change that math a bit but He is a skilled runner. I think he can do well here So I'm fine taking the Colts plus five and a half There is value in the money line as well But if I can navigate my way around Bill Belichick by taking The spread versus the money line, I will do that. So I'll take the Colts plus five and a half in this one here taking advantage of you know, potentially Under reaction to Elinger looking okay in his debut and potentially because of the the match up mismatch When they were running quarterback facing off against New England What I'm not betting right now, but made later on is Cincinnati They are seven and a half point favorites against the Panthers right now That is down from eight and a half before last night's game And I think it it's more likely to move towards the Panthers than towards the Bengals It might not cross seven But it's minus 115 on the Bengals Minus seven and a half right now. I think we can at least get that to come down I think if it's going to move it'll move that direction. So That might move. We also could get a better money line here on the Bengals side even taking out Jamar Chase and Punishing them quite a bit for how they played last night in the first game without him I have the Bengals favored by 9.5 points here So I could bet it now based on the value gap between my numbers Between what my model says and what the market is saying. I could bet that now But I think if it's going to move it's probably going to move towards Carolina I'm likely to add it later on this week. I kind of want to get a feel for the market first, but I want to see Where that goes. So basically what I'll be doing is just watching What the hold is on that the Bengals minus seven and a half it stayed pretty steady at minus 115 right now So maybe it doesn't move towards Carolina, but you know pj walker enthusiasm dj more enthusiasm Pessas around the Bengals. I think we might get a better number So holding off for right now, but very likely to add that one later on this week The one spot where I'm showing value, but not betting it is on the jets and this is I think just kind of a key overall discussion because My numbers say the jets should be 8.05 point underdogs in this game Whereas the spread is 2.5 and typically you get four points in your favor. You're going to take that But when you're betting a spread you're not betting based on the average you're betting based on the median the median expectation And is the median expectation that the jets will cover 12 and a half You know 53 of the time or whatever When I back test my model uh teams that are around this area They cover that range about 12 point uh about uh 48 percent of the time So 12 and a half points a team similar to the jets mismatched against the bills They cover a 12 and a half point spread about 48 percent of the time It's because when you fall behind Things can get out of hand very easily you're in a negative game script that can lead to really big losses You're in desperation mode for longer and I don't want to deal with that so Just because my numbers say the spread should be tighter doesn't mean I want to bet that Now you remember that I talked about the the Packers plus 10 and a half last week on this show And this is a very similar situation where they could fall behind I had more confidence in the Packers passing offense should they fall behind being able to claw to the right back and cover that number Then I do in the jets passing offense So that's the key difference in those two ones and also is a 7.2 point Spread by my numbers that one's a little bit different there different passing offenses. That's why I'm going to pass on this one and it's a different situation Then last week and the Packers did cover too of coming from behind to get that backdoor cover That was part of the thesis there. I'm going to pass on this one here with the jets despite showing value For the reasons listed above So to recap where I'm showing value this week I got the Jags plus 106 falcons plus 140 and the Colts plus five and a half on the spread I'm okay taking all those I'm going to wait and see on the Bengals against carolinix I think I can get a better number uh potentially later on this week But we'll hold off on that one to see Where stuff goes as a week goes along but keeping on that one for sure and likely to add it later on And I will not be adding the jets in any fashion against the bills for this week That wraps up our NFL week number nine first look I said that we'll circle back to week number nine on thursday with ryan williams to break down that and also Talk some player props with jj zack recent Let's dive now though into world series game number three because game three got postponed last night And we can actually talk about it here on the show because Tuesdays are more of a free form kind of show And I actually am showing value here on the astros money line. That's minus 126 at fandall You can get some slightly better numbers elsewhere My model puts the astros win odds at 58.3 percent. They're implied odds who take the minus 126 are 55.8 percent so About two and a half percentage points of value there and I'm very fine Taking that ranger suarez facing the astros and he's a lefty That's a very tough assignment because the active roster for the astros had a 132 w rc plus against lefties during the regular season That's very good and it's tough for suarez on the opposing side of lance mccullers He's looks really crisp in the postseason. I think that the the fun thing for me with the colors is that He is Using his slider a lot, but he's also not walking guys If you can get that combination out of lance mccullers Good things are probably going to happen. That's pretty tough to top. So astros minus 126 on the money line here I think that's a really good number and I'm willing to take that So I will take the astros minus 126 for game number three Now we do as of now know the starters for game four as well Let's just talk quickly about that uh for when markets open post game three My preliminary numbers view this game as being a toss-up in game four That's assuming the starters remain aeronola and christian javier I've got the fillies of 50.7 to win that game assuming nothing else changes too much now You can use that number as a baseline you'll have to tweak things around because Big shifts can happen if one team has an injury or has to burn through a lot a bunch of relievers for tonight That could change but as of right now, I've got 50.7 for the fillies in game four 58.6 Or 58.3 for the astros in game number three So use those as kind of your baseline to decide whether there is value there If you can get I mean if the astros wind up being like underdogs for game four based on Narrative based on the nola matchup and stuff like that then maybe you buy into the astros from both games So for right now, we'll take the astros for game three and see where things settle out in game number four Okay, let's now move into the recap portion of this podcast and go back through last week's show on the college football side of things We had austin swam of number fire on check out austin on twitter at a swing three find his work Over at number fire dot com and austin cleaned up this week. He nailed tcu west virginia. He had tcu minus seven and a half over 68 and a half They get a little lucky in getting up both those because um, he was talking to him about that this morning and Tcu one by ten total finished 72 neither those would have hit had tcu not scored a late touchdown that when they didn't really need it Trying kind of trying to burn clock, but I mean it was a three point game. You can kind of understand why they were Still pushing there. So it wasn't like a total total nonsense touchdown. They were only up by three points But you know, it still works So tcu winning by 10 getting the cover getting the over Hero ball stuff there to get austin both the wins there. He also had washington state plus seven They were facing utah. They lost that game by four so they covered in that one Finally, we had austin ed going head to head on kentucky versus tenancy austin had tenancy minus 12 and a half Ed had kentucky and austin also had the under at 62 and a half and ed Did get the closing line value second time that's happened this year because it closed 11 and a half and second time he's gone head to head against a guest on the show Got the clv But the other side won closed 11 and a half austin won both those. He won the Total is that game went I think under 50 almost or pretty close to it Did not get 62 and a half for sure and they won that game running away So austin four and oh on the week here on the show actually five and oh, sorry I forgot he had two totals and two spreads or two toes and three spreads So five and a week for austin again checking out on twitter at a swain three and find his college football betting work over at numberfire.com he does Betting guides for like the the one-off slates like uh twos or a thursday or friday So check it austin's working number fire. Give a follow on twitter At a swain three as well for player props We had jj. Zachary snod as always he went two for three on the yardage props The hits were david montgomery over seven and a half receiving yards, which he hit like two minutes into the game AJ brown over 66 and a half receiving yards, which he hit like two minutes into the game So both those hit pretty quickly the one miss was robert tonion Under 32 and a half receiving yards. He finished with 35 so pretty tight miss there, but Good week on the the yardage props for jj finished two and three or two and one The touchdown props were courtland siden plus 220 anytime and then just in fields under Under 0.5 passing touchdowns at plus 145 Neither are those hit but good call on the yardage props for jj He talked about unders on the jets backfield given they might be a committee with ty johnson working in None of those guys did anything unless you went with a michael carter receiving yardage prop He mentioned tony pollard as being a you know, some guy to buy high on In the betting markets that worked out pretty well. So could we go overall by jj? Even with the tight miss there on the tonion under 32 and a half Ryan williams check him out on twitter at ryanowesend or underscore w144 on spread bets this week But also did really well with props last night He had tyler boyd and amari cooper anytime touchdowns those were plus 145 and plus 170 respectively both those hit So good job by ryan there. He also had donovan people's jones over 43 and a half receiving yards He finished with 81. He had a super long catch right away so no hit for joe burrow 250 yards and two touchdowns Plus the bangles spread in the tyler boyd over 60 and a half receiving yards But another overall really good week from ryan check out him on twitter at ryanowesend or underscore w Also forgot to mention jj is on twitter at late round qb late round commas where you can find his work and the late round fantasy football podcast I have a super frustrating week because I have three bets and then one prop last night the prop did hit That was amari cooper over 52 and a half receiving yards. He finished with 131. So that was good I was one and two in the other bets the wind was the packers plus 10 and a half They lost by 10 so covered uh big counts good teams win great teams cover packers play great So i'm gonna buy my estimation The other two were money lines the bucks and the bangles Both those were about as frustrated as you could possibly get because the bucks were plus 102 when we discussed it on tuesday They closed it minus 126 on thursday night. So Awesome closing line down you will take that every single time And obviously they lost so that was a bummer Didn't feel like a good omen for the rest of the week Then the bangles were minus 180 when we spoke they were down to what minus 196 at one point And then the jamar chase injury got announced. I still had their win odds around I think like 65 or so percent post chase injury. So It's not like it was something that negated all the value that I had But you know, you kind of get that like sick feeling you're like, oh man Like even though i'm still thinking this is like like the odds say this is an okay bet You don't feel good about it. I had that feeling Once that jamar chase injury was announced. You're like, okay, here we go It's gonna be frustrating Monday night and it is exactly that way. So I think the process for both the bucks and the bangles was correct But not the right results and that's happened a lot this year. It is frustrating, but it happens. Um, so you know It's just annoying with the way that went but I think that with the way the numbers are moving I feel good about those bets long term closing long value should translate to win So I still feel okay about it, but definitely Not the results I wanted overall but a good week for the show with the austin sweep Good weeks for ryan and jj and ed For ryan and jj doing well on their bets as well So hopefully a profitable week for you if you're listening to the podcast here on covering the spread More to come throughout this week as I mentioned work back tomorrow talking about college football week number 10 with ed fang We'll get his breakdown of those numbers there. I'll have ryan williams back on on thursday to break down end of a week nine in full We'll have jj on on friday to break down player props for this week as well So don't forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also subscribe To the fan dual youtube page if you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big thank you Everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck. If you decide to bet on the asterisk week for game number three If your affiliates fan astros fan, etc. Just enjoy the game We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for some more college football discussion This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network