 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm and welcome to this week's a plan demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you, please don't forget to like subscribe and share it's really a free way of supporting the the channel and it really helps the YouTube algorithm and gets the quality content out to the traders that really would benefit from this type of analysis, so Getting into really the the week ahead And looking at potential fundamental catalysts and as fundamentals are really that the drivers of a medium to long-term price So just zooming into the week ahead. So all eyes are Turning on the US Employment report next week, which will probably add to signs of gradual job recovery as well as worldwide manufacturing PMI survey and an OPEC Meeting that is expected to offer guidance on the production plan. So what it is is that the the US Employment is a I guess An indication an indicator an early indicator of how the economy is doing so high employment and low unemployment you know and That should really Keep the Fed on track when it comes to potentially hiking interest rates, which I'll get into a bit later on We're talking about the dollar index Elsewhere key data to watch for Includes US foreign trade balance and construction spending UK first quarter GDP and current account updates now The UK first quarter GDP is pretty much known as three GDP numbers that come out. There's the I think the preliminary the the second Estimate and then the final so we already know this is pretty much the final GDP We pretty much know what the first quarter data was We really want to watch the market moving new news is really the preliminary News that comes out as far as the the data that comes out and what we know about the The GDP at the moment is already pretty much known So it's not really going to be a market moving event in my opinion Eurozone inflation and business morale again inflation is going to be is really the topic of Discussion and really the market focus at the moment and business morale Japan's tank and survey industrial production and retail sales and Australia foreign trade figures, so a few market moving events Going on this week so let's get into the technicals and some some deeper fundamentals and starting off as we always do on the Dow Jones dollar index and The dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength again weakness against Against other major currencies like the euro the yen the pound and the Australian dollar and some others and Pretty much from the technical analysis perspective. We came up to this supply zone last week and Let me just get my pen tool brush tool and we had you know, just a pretty much a little bit of a self But the overall path of least resistance. I guess at the moment is to the upside and I think the market really is waiting for Waiting for the Federal Reserve to to really kind of Be a bit more obviously a bit more hawkish, but waiting for the data to support the narrative So we had the surprise last week, right? Which was the hawkish tone in the FMC and now the market I guess is waiting for the data to support narrative and what is the data the data is unemployment, right so The feds Rosenberg says 2022 rate hike in play as job market heels Yeah, so the Federal Reserve might consider an interest rate hike from near zero as soon as late 2022 as labor market reaches full employment and inflation is at the Central Bank's gold Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren Said the criteria is that we have a sustainable inflation rate Which is 2% is their target or above and that we are at full employment This is the key full employment here Rosengren said in the in a broadcast interview with Yahoo Finance I do expect that it's quite possible that we will see that by the end of the year But it does depend on whether the economy progresses strongly as I'm expecting and that is the key the economy has to Support the rate hikes central banks don't want to just randomly hike rates if the economy won't can't support rate hikes And it's not just the Federal Reserve All central banks will see all central banks, but a lot of central banks are in the same Predicament when it comes to monetary policy, right? So peak central bank support Marks new phase for world recovery, right? So after the global pandemic There's a there is a global recovery And so the pandemic recovery is in a new phase as multiple central banks start or plot the withdrawal of emergency stimulus gradually shifting from peak support and Opening up divergences in international policy making that is in extremely important divergences in international policymaking because if a Central bank is hiking rates looking to hike rates and another central bank is potentially Behind the curve when it comes to hiking rates and they're looking to hold rates and the wait and see You really want to and this is not financial advice, but money will tend to flow into The central banks where the policy is ahead of the curve and they're hiking sooner rather than later So the Federal Reserve's crab walk towards the mo Towards the moment it reduces its aid has cemented the global pivot with Counterparts in the UK Canada Norway Sweden South Korea and New Zealand among those sketching out maps to to a pullback so Again just understanding that the global support all the money printing that was supporting You know furlough businesses the country, etc. Is being withdrawn which should actually have a positive effect on currencies as far as it should create demand as well as hiking rates has a the effect of of creating demand for the currency simply because Investors I guess will want to put their money into a higher yielding currency or assets over a lower yielding one, right? So what on the face of it, that's the basic premise of it There are nuances to that but going back to the Federal Reserve the Federal Reserve The reason why prices went higher was not because there was some technical reason It was literally because the Federal Reserve are now a bit hawkish But just be careful because the data has to support the narrative and if the data comes out this week Jobs come out this week and they disappoint then what happens is is that that 2022, right? The 2022 potential target late 2022 for a rate hike may be then delayed until 2023 and then that obviously pushes expectations for a rate hike Further into the future, which then means that less, you know investors are going to necessarily want to You know filled in need to necessarily buy dollars now and then you could see potential, you know downside So the data always has to support the narrative when it comes to buying the rumor Anyways, if you do feel that you want to get long on the dollar at the moment There is really no demand zones unless we kind of create a new higher high and then wait for a pullback and Then into this would be the new demand zone here And then we're looking for long trades. If not, you're looking for a pullback all the way down into that 90.5 area before looking at long trades if you want to get long on the dollar If you're looking for short trades, then I think any pullback into that supply zone will be a decent short trade But again looking for potential Catalysts and reasons as to why you want to get short on the dollar From a fundamental and possibly risk sentiment perspective moving on to the Dollar yen and a dollar yen last week. We did come up into this This supply zone, which was a market a previous market high Surprises were expensive here the premise about supply and demand or understanding supply and demand is understanding Why is you know if it was expensive in March? What is going to make? Why do investors determine the exchange rate to be expensive here if the US dollar we're looking to High crates for example Yeah Sooner than the Japanese yen the Bank of Japan then in fact the market has to price that in yeah, so Doesn't make sense to just go short here based on the technical pattern because there's no technical patterns That are going to work in the face of fundamentals and understanding Value and monetary policy. This is just not going to work The market think that this is a bargain right here for the dollar the prices will go higher So the path of these resistance at the moment is to the upside you can see what's been happening since really I would say mid-April to the end of April and Again, there has been a major shift in monetary policy. So For me, it's really about potential pullbacks into certain demand zones So that would be where I would look for any kind of long trades pullback into the one tens 109s and then look for potential long trades again if the data supports the narrative So that has to be you know a requirement don't just necessarily just buy or sell you have to keep You know your fingers on the pulse when it comes to understanding the fundamental analysis on what? The big money and a smart money is likely to do If risk off does come into the market meaning there's some fair uncertainty and doubt the Japanese yen does benefit From a risk-off environment and this would then look like actually quite a really decent Short trade but for now There are risk events, but I think the market is is kind of shrugging them off for now as the vaccine rollout should protect, you know Citizens from, you know new Delta variants, etc. Even though there have been, you know certain lockdowns in that But I do think that for now until it really is front-page news I do think that we are in probably more of a risk-on environment than a risk-off environment So again, power for these resistance to the to the upside for now Moving on to the dollar Swiss same thing as a dollar yen Really my bias is really to the upside. So I'm looking for long trades So if prices can make higher highs pull back into a nice demand zone, this would be demand then that's really my preference But again depends on what happens with the dollar and do what the data is saying if not Then you're looking for pullback into the 90 cent area if you are looking for short trades again The question is why do you think that the Swiss franc is undervalued? Why is it a bargain at this at this price point against the US dollar? That's the question you have to always ask yourself and for me the again the Swiss franc the Swiss National Bank are very dovish not looking to raise rates anytime soon They're pretty much the last of essential banks to want to raise rates or looking to raise rates So I think again the path of these resistance is to the upside Again moving on to Next currency pair, which is the dollar CAD the dollar CAD the CAD is actually Bank of Canada is actually ahead of the the Federal Reserve when it comes to potentially hiking rates, so The for me not necessarily a pair. I would like to trade but Just on that that idea if I was looking for any kind of direction I would be looking for short trades any pullbacks into supply for me are short trades There are easier trades you really want to trade currency pairs that are diverging or converging Meaning that one is potentially hiking rates one is cutting rates, right? or for example the base currency is cutting rates and maybe the The quote currency is hiking rates of convergence and divergence trades to to trade Pairs where both central banks are hiking or both are potentially cutting or hawkish or dovish isn't necessarily the best idea In the world you really want to look for this because this is what is going to show you where the market is trending This is price discovery. This tends to be Generally tends to be ranging market territory. So again for me not necessarily the best but There is a slight bit of divergence when it comes to the bank Canada and a Canadian economy being ahead of the US economy So my bias would be to the short side if you're looking for long trades probably look for maybe a pullback down to the 1 to 1 50 area as a to get long on the the dollar and Short the Canadian dollar, but there are definitely easier trades out there moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollar one of my one of my buy pairs not necessarily against the US dollar Against some other currencies like the the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc prices did come down into This demand zone last week We did get a bit of a sell-off which I was saying to the members of the private discord group was a buying Opportunity and you saw pretty much this week prices come back lots of a bank forecast really kind of focusing on long New Zealand dollar US dollar price up to I think that Maybe third quarter might be about in the 73 areas. So for me any pullbacks into a zone Into that zone now. I think is a decent buying opportunity if we can get it. There is a bit of demand right there The bond There so a bit of pullback into this demand zone and then looking for potential Long trades short trades if you feel that the The US dollar should get stronger, but again, there are easier trades to buy the US dollar against I'm not necessarily a fan of this currency pair at all moving on to the pound dollar pound dollar again, I think it's more even Steven if if looking at the the fundamentals think maybe the the pound for me is Again, I think it's a buy but just not against potentially the dollar I'm not necessarily too sure about the the dollar. I'm saying that you know, you shouldn't where we should again Not financial device, but there are much easier trades fundamentally to if you want to to buy the pound for example Would you buy it necessarily against the dollar who are also looking to high crates, right now going into some fundamentals about the the pound The Bank of England warns against tightening too soon as inflation surges So the Bank of England pushes back against speculation that a surge in UK inflation means preparing to boost interest rates saying the economy still needs Support to recover from the pandemic. So again, it's the same theme as the Federal Reserve They're all doing the same thing, but they need the Economy to recover because if you hike interest rates too soon, it could really, you know, hinder the economy if if if businesses Still struggling still requires support. So they're in a wait and see at the moment. They're in a wait and see situation You know the central bank warned against premature tightening Toughening its language on the need to maintain stimulus. So they are still supporting the economy. They're still furlough programs Going on as well the remarks Contrasted with a sharp increase in the bank's outlook for inflation Which officials now see peaking at 3% a half point higher than their forecast is six weeks ago So inflation at the moment is is running away and you would really expect it kind of to Go higher simply because of the amount of money printing that goes on But again, what this is what the central bank is is worried about is hiking rates too soon They don't want to hike rates and potentially hurt Businesses and the economic recovery. So they're in the same boat as the as the Federal Reserve waiting for, you know, certain economic signs Which potentially could mean that we could be entering into some sort of range for example this being the market high Right. So this was the market high. This was an expensive exchange rate. This may be This was you know a bargain here. So we could actually enter into a potential ranging market state So let's see what happens there Again for me buying The the pound wouldn't necessarily be the best or the pound dollar would be the best pair to trade But if you do want to get Long then looking for pullbacks into that zone there or just below Before getting long looking at any kind of short trades and buying the the dollar Then you're looking for a pullback into this only even though I don't really like this zone Too much from a supply zone perspective. Yes, it's got nice little hard out there, but Probably maybe wait for some sort of Potential stop hunt with some fundamental catalyst above the market before getting involved in that so, yeah, that's pretty much the analysis for the the pound dollar and moving on to the Euro dollar before we get into the Euro dollar just a quick reminder that the Supply and demand course Private mentoring opens on the fifth of July, which is eight days away. I've been getting lots of emails And thank you to those who are inquiring So with the fundamental Analysis and the supply and demand mentor and we pretty much put it all together We go through many different trading strategies as well as Weekly live calls as well. So we are, you know, it's not just me posting videos. You're actually talking to me We're going through, you know trades not necessarily trade calls, but we do talk about The fundamentals how it affects price this is the discord room and Also, as well, you get access to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet, which gives us Really kind of a clear view as to what to expect from currencies currency strength strength divergence and convergences and risk on and risk off sentiments. So just in case you do want to have a Sneak peek into the group it opens enrollment starts July the 5th and You can access the group for less than a pound a day anyway, it's getting back to the Technicals we've got the Euro dollar and Euro dollar Did bounce off of this demand zone right here So we've got a bit of demand coming in limit of the move potentially again If the Federal Reserve are looking to cut rates and the data supports the narrative You should see prices continue to go to the downside the ECB at the moment are A bit behind the curve so ECB's Schnabel Warns governments not to end crisis to support early so pretty much echo in the same sentiment really as the Bank of England as well as the the Federal Reserve to a certain degree but more I think they're more lagging when it comes to Them wanting to potentially high crates a European Central Bank executive board member Isabel Schnabel pledged that she and her colleagues will do everything needed to sustain the economic recovery and warned Governments not to undermine that by tightening fiscal policy to soon. So again, you don't want to choke off the economy Potentially by hiking interest rates or removing the the help and the what she's talking about fiscal policy It's probably more to do with you know furlough schemes You really want to support the economy even though inflation is rising You know the they really don't want to end it just now they want to see the data support the narrative and then they will start to look to potentially see if the economy can support a Hike in rates. So at the moment, I think the path at least resistance is to the downside Again, not necessarily a currency pair that I'm really interested in But if I was then the dollar the US dollar would be the the currency pair that I would look to trade and it would be You know more to the short side. So let's see what happens here positive sentiment around to the the US dollar and the Fed kind of neutral around around euro So again partly resistance to the to the downside So ultimately what you're looking for is for prices to make lower lows a pullback into supply and then That would be supplied there and then a short trade there Or if prices do manage to get back to the one to one area Then you're looking for any kind of short trades around there If there is a more of a hawkish shift towards Europe, then I think you're probably looking at any kind of long trades Either at this demand zone around here or down at the 117 area Moving on to the euro yen euro yen last week I was saying I did want to be long on this didn't manage to catch the catch the low But although the although Europe are, you know, probably maybe lagging behind the curve a little bit I do think that they're in a better place than the Japanese yen. So for me Ultimately, I want to get long on this currency pair. There is demand here as well I'll delete Probably this one make the chart bit cleaner. So there is definitely demand in and around this zone This one started from the one through one Area and when you have such a large zone, one of the things that you can do is break it down with support and resistance Because right, it's not one or the other you use what you really want to do is use both As confidence the reason why is because we understand that other traders use support and resistance, right? So not only do we have demand? So for example price was a bargain in and around this area, but for more precision We understand that there's going to be at certain support levels, right? This being resistance. It's being support There's going to be technical traders getting involved in and around this area here just buying technical levels Right. That's what traders tend to do not understanding which way they should be trading from a fundamental perspective So it adds to the supply and demand equation if we understand fundamentally that we should be buying here and then Technical analysis traders look for certain zones as well And they start to place orders to the upside the question becomes Why is there going to be more supply in this area than demand? Yeah, or why is there like to be more demand in this area than supply again? Nobody knows exactly where the market is going to turn, but it's all about probably, you know being the probabilities of one thing happening over Another so one of the one of the techniques we do use out of probably about five or six Confluences is also the addition of support and resistance with supply and demand zone and a little secret in fact Supply and sorry support and resistance, right a past supply and demand zones, right? I've got videos on my YouTube channel if you have a search for it Support and resistance are past supply and demand zones that have been projected into the future it's just the way that it's been traded by supply and demand and Support and resistance looks different, but they're actually the same In fact, I'll just see if I can find the the video in fact I'll put it I'll try and put it in the in the link in the description box and you can have a look at the At that that video anyways moving on actually not yet Japanese yen risk off you're looking for any kind of short trades back up into this zone here before looking at any kind of short trades If not, you're looking for lower highs and lower lows to be made before Prices pulled back. So what I mean by that is if we Get rid of all this Not all of that you just go back, right? So if we do get lower low lower high or lower lows, right? You're looking for a pulled back that would create supply and then you're looking for a Cell trade in and around this area here But again, you're looking for more risk off sentiment to come into the market moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar and Price did actually again accurately bounce off of this demand zone right here Again, I'm not a fan of this currency pair simply because you've got two Currency pairs that are you know looking to potentially hike rates soon I think the Australian dollar probably just a bit more ahead of the dollar So if my bias if it didn't have a bias it would be to the upside So any kind of pullbacks to that demand zone for me is a buying opportunity Selling opportunity up into this Supply zone right here before looking at any kind of sell trades or if prices do make again lower lows You're looking for a pullback into that zone before looking at getting short Moving on to the Aussie Yen Aussie yen Again a nice sign mark this out last week again support and resistance This basically illustrates the point right so your support resistance has been that wide demand zone and then look what happens Prices bounced off of that support zone And went to the upside right for me. I'm interested in this pair Longest pair because they are pretty much diametrically opposed commodity currencies like the Australian dollar do wedding a risk on Environment yeah, and the Japanese yen will tend not tend to do well in a risk on environment So for me commodity currencies over safe haven currencies and the risk on environment all days So long trades it is I've been saying that for a while. This was a bit of a Quite a large liquidity hunt But we've seen prices bounce if you get pretty much back down into this zone around here for me That is another, you know entry for a Continued long trade as long as risk remains on if you do want to get short in and around these areas I probably say the 8550 the highs of this area would be the the best area to look for any kind of a short trade within this wide area of Of supply as you have bit of resistance resistance resistance in and around these areas there and Finally looking at gold and gold is really like the dollar this week. I think is waiting for a bit of a catalyst The dollar they've really didn't move in either the gold I think continued a potential continued gold sell-off Which then this is really driven by again the hawkish Federal Reserve will be dependent upon Inflation for example if you do think that inflation is going to get out of hand and It's not transitory as the Federal Reserve say meaning that it's a temporary inflation Then I think then you probably want to continue to get long on gold but if you if you you know if you if you sorry if you if you don't believe the Federal Reserve and it's temporary inflation if you do believe that the inflation is temporary and the US dollar will want to Will control inflation put a little in inflation by hiking interest rates then the effect really is for weaker and lower gold prices Because money will flow into a higher yielding asset like the US dollar And if they look into high rates from for example 0.25 to potentially 0.5 percent Yeah, and gold doesn't pay an interest And also we're in a risk-on Environment then Unfortunately the dollar pretty much wins and especially like I said if inflation starts to come back towards the 2% target average inflation as well So we could just be seeing this range where prices have been contained between this range here this high here and This low here so you can see where the actual range is Contained between this nineteen nineteen twenty area potentially and The sixteen and prices may remain within this range for a little while But let's see what happens again keep an eye on inflation also keep an eye on the US Jobs and the US recovery. Anyways guys, that's it for this week. I hope you guys have a great trading week and Take care speak soon