 the latest iPad or you know the Japanese is lined up outside the store to get Final Fantasy 13 or whatever the case may be and so most markets sort of adopt what's called an S-curve of market penetration where you have the sort of the early adopters and the followers and then you kind of get this you know mass market and then it kind of saturates. So it looks something like that just sort of for illustrative purposes and generally speaking along that curve there's something that drives demand along that curve like what like what's driving people to line up outside the store what's driving people then to be the followers to sort of you know penetrate the market reach mass market and so on so there's usually something that's kind of you know driving demand along that curve. If we look at games if we look at consoles or game platforms I will theorize that what's really been driving demand along that curve has been what I'll label as horsepower meaning the raw power of the machine you know the CPU speed that you know the core multi-core processors in the PS3 the hard drive space the bandwidth the pixel throughput you know all that stuff that makes the machine more and more powerful so I'll kind of just call that you know horsepower for lack of a better label. So over many generations in fact what's really been driving demand across you know sales of consoles has been increased in horsepower and you know going back you know even to early very early generations of consoles and to this day to some extent. Now what happens in the marketplace is that you get a saturation point right where the consumers have reached enough of that thing that's driving demand so they have enough horsepower they've they satisfied their demand of horsepower and so they're looking for other things they're looking for for other to satisfy other needs and usually what happens is a new curve starts right there's something new that comes out that then satisfies that new demand and you get a new s you know that you know say you have the early adopters lined up outside again and people following them and you know you get you get this repeat of the process you know and you have a new sort of thing that's that's driving demand but you don't really know you know what that is necessarily. So what happens is in an industry the reason why I bring this up is to talk about risk aversion the theory behind this is called the innovators dilemma that the companies and and people working and doing stuff on the initial curve in order to succeed on that curve have to be become so optimized for success on the on the demand what drives demand on that curve so if you want to succeed on the first curve you have to be so good at delivering horsepower that you really don't really not good at anything else and so the innovators dilemma is that the things you do to succeed today are the very things that prevent you from succeeding tomorrow and this kind of echoes what Christian was saying in the keynote this morning if you're an entrepreneur and you want to look for opportunity don't try to compete you know by today's rules look at sort of three years down the road and sort of where where the trends are going in and compete there so innovators dilemma is you know EA or Sony you know Sony not to pick on Sony but you know Sony for several generations won the like won the console wars by delivering horsepower right so they assume well we just have to keep going down that path and deliver more horsepower in ps3 but that was sort of occurring at the peak here where many consumers had sort of reached the saturation point for horsepower and so they jump they jump curves right they jump curves in terms of going you know it's for more community-based social games whether it was on Facebook more sort of open or accessible input methods whether you know it was the Wiimote or the DS stylus that kind of stuff and so you know consumers start jumping to another curve but the companies don't right and part of the problem is that the companies at the saturation point at the peak are kind of are making you know a ton of money right this is sort of their peak of revenue generation and when the new stuff is starting it's kind of down here making very little money so the executives of this you know sitting up top of this curve are looking down at the bottoms you know that's just a fad that's you know inconsequential it's not significant revenue let's just keep doing what we've always been doing delivering horsepower and you know that's been our the way we succeeded all along and then invariably what happens is you know you have the early adopters the followers you know this kind of continues down this path and this is kind of crossover point where you know the old stuff is irrelevant and the new stuff takes