 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a rematch the 2019 FIFA women's World Cup final coming up on Wednesday between the USA and Netherlands they're gonna face off on Wednesday We're gonna break down that match talk about takeaways in the US's win over Vietnam I'm just talking general takeaways from the opening weekend of the women's World Cup by talking to dr. Ed Fang today and getting his insights on what he's seen thus far It's this covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Saunas I am a managing editor of digital content for a fan dual research joined here as mentioned by dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power ranked calm check him out on Twitter at the power rank as well an ed One weekend of action is in the books. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. I had a nice weekend of what? Can't complain absolutely getting some soccer back in our lives some fun international soccer Got to watch most of that game against Vietnam back on Friday Obviously not as dominant of a win for the US as I think the betting markets at least we're expecting Ed It sounds like you were more in line with what wound up happening there We'll talk about that game here in a second break down thoughts on now the first a quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find us on Apple podcast on a spotify Wherever you get your podcast you can find us if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast Or Spotify also do not forget that all these shows do go up over on the fans of YouTube page and over on fan dual TV plus but I Want to talk about that USA versus Vietnam game here in a second And but let's begin things by talking about general takeaways from this first week And we've seen a good number of matches out there any big takeaways for you from what you've seen thus far For sure, I feel like Spain played pretty well. I watched, you know first 30 minutes of their game they against Against to Against someone that wasn't Costa Rica against someone that really probably shouldn't have been on the same field as them I thought they looked really good. This is the team that doesn't necessarily have all their top women at this World Cup But kind of didn't matter actually their top player Alexis Pateas was was actually not playing in that first 30 minutes. They managed to score three goals They had four point six XG, which is about the same as the US women had so I thought Spain looked pretty good I thought Sweden looked pretty good. This is a team that You know, I mean they were down one nothing to South Africa. I needed to go late goals to come back So I like that I have what 18 to 1 for Sweden to win I'm not sure they win, but wouldn't be surprised at all if they made it all the way to the final I did not see Germany last night, but 6-0 things could pretty good scoreline Alexander pop Alexander pop had two goals. And so I'm loving that obviously because 16-1 for her for the golden boot Is pretty nice, you know, the XG wasn't as big for the Germans, but still, you know, they they put a pretty good number on Morocco Their group is pop and just get two goals for every group stage match I would I would not be unhappy at all. Yeah, what you referenced there was our discussion from last week We talked about futures markets and you mentioned Alexander pop to win the golden boot at 16 to 1 as Sweden Was 18 to 1 at the time to win women's World Cup and again, like you mentioned the comeback picture for them Germany was plus 750. Those are the three futures Ed was zeroing in on before a discussion Before the first group play events got underway this past week Now you mentioned the XG for Sweden and talking about them Let's talk about them compared to the US because the US was taking on Vietnam and you mentioned the XG Potentially better for the US and the actual result there They did win three nothing over Vietnam and if you look at the betting markets where the total goals was massively high You said under six and a half, which was minus 112 at that time Obviously a three-nail victory does not live up to that does not live up to what we saw last time those two teams played But it sounds like based on expected goals Maybe they're better than the result, but I want to ask you Ed overall What was what do you think is a fair assessment of the US's first win over Vietnam? Right. I mean, I didn't think they played particularly well towards the beginning of the game I kind of expected them to come out and basically physically overmatch Vietnam. That was not the case at all Early in the game. They were kind of chucking a lot of long balls over the top Which I did not find particularly impressive. I think the play got better towards the end They put together some good offensive and some passing towards the later latter part of the game They hit the crossbar easily could have been four or five nothing Four and a half XG according to football ref, which is which is good Vietnam literally had zero so they certainly did fine on that side of the ball But maybe that's kind of expected Against you know, you know one of the lesser teams probably at this World Cup, but I did think it was interesting I mean, I don't watch a ton of women's soccer and I don't know if I should expect The US to physically dominate another team at this World Cup, but but they didn't and so that'll be interesting going forward because Because I certainly think the European teams are probably more skilled than the US So we'll see how the balance of kind of athleticism versus skill So it kind of comes out towards the later part of this tournament Yeah, and I think that I agree that you were especially early It did seem to be not quite what we were expecting They did seem to ramp things up a bit as the game went along and it seemed like from a possession perspective There weren't a lot of serious threats on the opposing end So I don't know if cruise controls way with a phrase it, but it kind of felt that way as if like It's like a max for a step in winning formula one where you don't need to put the the footal The you know your foot all the way down for the entire race And the US kind of felt like they were they allowed themselves to take things a bit easier Throughout that match because they knew it might not be the biggest test they could save their cells for this Wednesday match against Netherlands Would that be a too optimistic viewpoint of it in your eyes? Oh Maybe not. I mean honestly going into the match I kind of thought the US would put kind of put their foot on the jugular Which is the only thing that was worrying me about under six and a half goals under six and a half total goals You know with the US get there because I didn't think they Met up did they let up? I don't know. I mean, I just felt like the the match was hard. Yeah They feel in general Vietnam played pretty well You can't really see that in the XG But if you watched like I thought they played well, they I thought they defended well, so Yeah, I think you know to be determined with with the women with the US women and we'll certainly learn a lot more on Wednesday We certainly will so let's talk about that match here because we do have the USA Taking on the Netherlands again a rematch of the 2019 World Cup final and right now we do see the US as a favorite here Their money line is minus 145 over at Fandals sportsbook The Netherlands is plus 400 the tie is plus 260 right now looking at the total goals market here Over under on two and a half goals is currently the over plus 112 the under minus 144 so we've seen some movement towards the under in this match and we've seen some movement a bit Towards the United States money line. So when you look at this matchup, what are you expecting in this game between the US and Netherlands? Right, so I actually ran some numbers on this and assuming that the US and the Netherlands play on a neutral side Right. This is based on major tournaments since the last World Cup We have some pretty decent data on the US and a lot of the top European teams So, you know, what it actually said was that the US has about a 47 percent chance to win and then it's not really surprising that the It's not really surprising that their probability their markets are higher on the US Netherlands has a pretty key injury to Vivian Medima So, you know, this is a woman that has 95 goals and 115 caps You kind of just don't replace that too easily. So So not surprising that the markets are ahead of my model I also looked at XG. I looked at XG So we have XG data based on the last World Cup and then also Euro and so that should pretty a pretty decent sample size on the Dutch And less so for the US But just to give you a sense that said the US had a 74 percent chance to win So I think we're seeing a little bit of a small sample size effect there. It's not enough data on the Netherlands I'm not exactly sure what lineups that they had actually played in the last World Cup Versus Euro last year But the XG favored the US a little bit more. Obviously, I think it makes more sense when you have more data with with just the match results from the from the major tournaments I think that calculation kind of makes sense. I think the US should be a little bit more favored due to the injury situation You know, I don't really have a bet on this. It looks like the markets have gone towards the US It looks like the markets have gone towards the under US is better defensive Than they are offensively when I look at the data And so, yeah, you know, you kind of expect a low scoring game. Maybe one nothing US to nothing US That's that's the kind of game. I expect it to be I watched a little bit of the Dutch. I thought they were good I I think they're actually pretty similar to the men in that it's a pretty skilled team They're certainly gonna whip the ball around the field very skilled Don't really have a woman that's gonna put the ball away a top goal scorer and very similar to the men and So, you know, probably not a prime contender to win this Up they're they're they're they're pre-plop odds before the tournament were pretty low compared to the other teams I think the US should be able to win this match and And they look to move on to the knockout face Okay So it sounds like the markets make sense at least where they're at even if they are a bit more aggressive than what as numbers have We can understand why that discrepancy may occur based on health and things like that Any other bets you like in this game at USA versus Netherlands in the less traditional markets Yeah, this one's been tough Jim Um, I don't really I think the money line is about right I do expect a low scoring game and a lot of these low scoring games You tend I like to bet even number of total goals and for the men's world cup I draft Kings like they had minus 110 on both sides even odd no matter what Matt It was for the World Cup. It was the most sublime thing ever I don't know if you remember, but I definitely had even total goals in the final France versus Argentina, which was Even with the chaos of that game that that felt good the entire time and it won so You should really lean towards even total goals. Unfortunately draft King has both Decided to increase the juice on it And actually are leaning a little bit towards even so it's like minus 120 to the even So yeah, not a ton of value there, which is it's just a little disappointing that they they actually got off their rear end and fix that But you know, I mean I see maybe a zero their game Maybe one zero us game kind of a low scoring game if you kind of want to have fun You know, I think first goal scorer at any time goal scorer should be probably more similar than then they should Could be so, you know, maybe Alex Morgan first goal scorer because because that might be the only goal So I haven't bet it, but if you're desperate to bet something I would probably go something like Alex Morgan first goal scorer She's currently plus 340 right now over at Fandals sportsbook No goal scorer is seven to one as well If you want Alex Morgan any time goal that is plus 130 right now over at Fandals sportsbook as an option there as well I there is no even Even odd number of goals bets over at Fandals and I feel like we know who to blame For increased use in those markets at the men's World Cup So you lost the market, but it might have been because you did too well previously So I feel like you got to take on some of the blame there when it comes to the the takeaway of that market at other sportsbooks What about other stuff you're seeing right now looking at other matches futures markets, whatever it might be Anything else that has piqued your interest so far that you may want to lock in before he's next round to games get underway I thought it was particularly The interesting that Japan had 6.5 of XG against Zambia and you might think oh, that's just a minnow that they destroyed Zambia beat Germany and a friendly before this World Cup So I'm very interested to see what we can get out of the Japanese women You know it was not a team that the numbers particularly liked coming into this tournament, but I think that performance kind of Makes me you know want to watch their next match and and and see how good they really are So that that was something that I'm interested in you know I'm oh and They play Costa Rica and Costa Rica's is not it's not good. So we'll see how that goes and then You know as far as other matches I'm kind of waiting a little while until so that there's some more competitive matches like US Netherlands We might have to wait a little while and But yeah, well, we'll keep you up to date on what's going on Yeah, that Japan versus Costa Rica game is coming up 1 p.m. East or 1 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday morning Or late Tuesday if you want to watch that way instead Japan versus Costa Rica Japan's money line minus 2100 after that big win over Zambia as well So interested to see what they can do in that one and see if we can get another contender in the mix for the World Cup That's all we have for World Cup for today I'm gonna go through a recapping last week's bet here in just one second but Ed first of all want to thank you for Swinging by for today one of the numbers for us We're gonna be back again on Thursday not just to recap that US versus Netherlands matchup But also we're gonna talk some college football futures because college football season is just around the corner So Ed it was a delight to have you on the show for today people are looking for Five Nuggets Saturday trying to find your work in general. Where can they find that right now? Thanks so much Jim. Yeah, you can find all my work at the powerink.com Definitely sign up for the newsletter Five Nuggets Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips And analytics, I try to I try to do a little handicapping in there even off season But the important thing is looking at other people stuff like you're working that's car jim trying to find People that you should be listening to so check out Five Nuggets Saturday and get that at the powerink.com Alrighty, well, thank you so much Ed. We'll talk to you once again Thursday to talk Some college football talks and women's world cup as well find Ed on twitter at the powerink and again find his work Over at the power rank.com as Bench we're gonna dive into Recapping what we talked about last week here on the show Recapping the bets recommended and much more here in just one second at first We got some exciting news over at number fire beginning now You can find all the number fire content from the analysts You know over at a new home called fan dual research fan dual research is on the fan dual domain Meaning you can now do your own research on the same site where you place bets and Submit daily fantasy lineups and don't worry all the number fire tools are still in place over at number fire.com So your daily process can remain the same for right now as a thank you for your years of loyalty We're running free rolls over on fan dual research now through the end of nfl season to check out This week's free play for the women's world cup talking that usa versus netherlands matchup Go to the welcome to fan dual research article over on fan dual research And be sure to check out all the great content while you are there again. That's fan dual.com slash research To find all the great content again from a podcast perspective nothing changes You can still find all these posts over on fan dual research You can find the the podcast seeds are the exact same including the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Still up over on the fan dual youtube page still up on fan dual tv plus so from a podcast perspective Nothing's different Pot the content will all be the same just in a new home over at fan dual research Check it all out at fan dual dot com slash research Let's dig in now and recap last week's recommendations here on the show as we discussed with ed His women's world cup that last week was on under six and a half goals for the usa against vietnam The under there was minus 112 and it wound up being three nil So we talked about how unders can be pretty rough sweats in the shell This one really was not looked pretty good from start to finish and it did cash there So great call by ed on that one again check him out on twitter at the power rank Find his work at the power rank dot com brandon gadoola was our guest for the open championship You can find brandon on twitter at gadoola 13 brian harman got the win in the open championship by six strokes bananas showing by brian harman there brandon's Outrights were on patrick cantley 22 to 1 zander schauffly 25 1 and hedecky matzuyama at 65 to 1 brandon also did eccy As the top asian player That honor went to tom kim who finished in a tie for second place Had eccy was plus 490 in that market couldn't quite get there brandon grace was brandon's bet to be the top south african Grace was plus 320 there, but louis hasen got that via a 23rd place finish And finally brandon had marcel seam as the top german at plus 170 Kind of you know brandon thought it like a head to head with thomas detree there and seam looked really good friday It was near the top of the leaderboard at one point, but rough saturday shot of 74 there. He finished 41st Thomas detree was the top german he finished in 13th So tough week there but looking forward to talking to brandon once again tomorrow about the 3m open Finally i had nascar and formula one this week nascar went great Formula one did not i had george russell the podium at plus 410 and pierre ghastly top 10 or uh, yeah george russell the podium at plus 410 and pierre ghastly top 10 at minus 120 Both those guys failed to make it to the final round of qualifying not ideal russell got caught in traffic Trying to make a lap and ghastly had a lap deleted in in q2 Then the first lap of the race ghastly got caught up in an accident not of his own doing So did not finish a lap nor did his teammates estimano con rough day for alpine russell did run pretty well during the race It's a track where it's tough to pass and he did make his way up to sixth But that's not a podium. So uh rough day there in formula one, but nascar as mentioned went really well My two bets from the show last week were eric jones top 10 at plus 430 and ricky senhouse jr Top 10 at five to one and both those did wind up cashing or cashing They had used some strategy to get there but senhouse finished seventh jones finished ninth held their own toward the end despite a couple restarts where they probably were not on You know the ideal strategy did have a bunched up restart But hey, they ran well they cashed those tickets So happy with that did help make up for uh the formula one stuff in the morning. So overall Feeling good about nascar feeling good about formula one With the move to fan dual research I'll actually be posting my formula one simulations over at fan dual research each week So you can find those before practice in qualifying each week if you want a more in depth look at this You want to use them for you know looking for bets that you may like stuff like that Those will be up each week over on fan dual research In case you want to look at uh win odds podium odds top six odds and top 10 odds Those are the numbers I will post based on my simulations each and every week That's what we got here for today though on covering the spread want to give a big thank you once again To dr ed feng find his work at the power rank dot com and on twitter at the power rank as well I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Don't forget to follow fandal research at fandal research on twitter if you followed number fire previously That is now the fandal research accounts. You don't need to follow there already doing so But again excited about this transition excited about uh getting to post my formula one sims nascar truck series Nascar obscenity series all in fandal research. So it's going to be a blast Looking forward to that as always again if any questions you can go to there's a full explanation post over on fandal research And also just hit me up on twitter at jim sonnis as well If you like what you hear on the podcast side of things make sure you leave us a five star rating now for podcasts We're on spotify and find all these videos up on fandals youtube page and on fandal tv plus I want to thank you all for tuning in we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to preview the three m open This has been covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network