 Ladies and gentlemen welcome to this webinar with me Michael Houston and Ryan Paisley of PIQ Hopefully we're going to try and give you an insight into some of the thought processes that go behind Well our decision-making my decision-making particularly and obviously Ryan's decision-making. We're coming out the markets I think from two totally different levels of experience and Hopefully that should give you some sort of insight into the way I look at the markets, but also the way Ryan looks at the market because I think it's um, I Think it's important that if you're an analyst and you're analyzing the markets You have an open mind to other people's points of view too often. I've seen on social media That people automatically dismisses other people's ideas just because they don't happen To align with their own And ultimately, I think that's a mistake. Yeah, by all means criticize I'm scrutinized but for me, I think politeness costs nothing and I think the more people you talk to who have different points of view I think it allows you to also become an awful lot more open-minded about your own decision-making Processing so essentially where I come where I come at the markets from my background is foreign exchange these trade Currencies for Commonwealth Bank of Australia back in the 1990s Sat through and experienced the ERM sterling crisis, which was a lot of fun Which saw interest rates in here in the UK go up to 15% briefly. Can you imagine that? No wonder the housing market tanked? but also The the concerns with respect to Well, I've over the last 20 or 30 years have seen an awful lot of financial crises But I have to say Ryan mentioned to me in the lead-up to Our little discussion that it's the 13 year anniversary of the Lehman crisis today and We're in the midst of a 13 year bull market. So I'm gonna turn my webcam Back on now. Can you can you guys see my screen? I'm guessing that you can or you can't. No, yeah, I can see it Okay, did you see the disclaimers at all because if you didn't I'm gonna have to show them again. I Did not Okay, so here we go again And Not showing not showing any disclaimers which was a bit naughty of me and I'll get into trouble from compliance for not doing that I just suddenly looked to my right suddenly realized. Oh, oh I'm actually not showing my screen. So Hopefully you can see the screen see the see the disclaimers and Hopefully we can get cracking very shortly with respect to Our little discussion. So I'll now basically hand over to Ryan to introduce himself He can turn on his webcam. I think he's been given grief for actually not wearing a tie I think everyone knows that I do not Guys Hello, buddy For those that you for those of you that don't know me, so my name is Ryan Paisie I need to speak up like the audio is quite fine Okay, sorry. My name is Ryan Paisie for those that you that don't know me I am also known as Priya per psyche or PIQ on Twitter My background believe it or not. I know I only look about 12 years old But my background is getting on best. Well, that's part almost 20 years exactly in the markets Started off as a runner for a company called kites group, which were massive. Well the largest local independent trading shop on the life floor. I I joined them just a just a few months basically or maybe a year after they moved from the life trading floor up to the office Where they had a big kind of open Trading floor of now obviously people trained on computers So it was very much my role as a runner was very much in the in the spirit of Floor trading a pit trading runner, which basically means you're the bitch Um, you know, it's it was a great opportunity It was you know, I think I'm one of the last true kind of you know, what you'd call a runner Because well, I know the person that joined only eight months after me It was a completely different role by then they realized, you know, they those aren't the kind of things that you can get away with when you're in an office But you know forced up onto a desk and tap dancing down the Down the length of it because you lost a bit or shit like that Yeah, so then after a year and a half two years, I was given a trading account where I traded oil markets I chose oil markets purely because It suited my kind of interest I'm very much man of you know as the the nature of this Webinar is it up and very much into geopolitics and you know, how the world is working rather than What interest rates are doing what that's for me? That's you know, it's not my cup of tea And also the timing coincided with the ice outside the IP exchange Which is the London oil exchange International petroleum exchange that coincided with that going to screen based So the idea in my head was you know, it's something that I'm interested in plus it's You know, it's everyone's all of a sudden on a more of a level playing field bearing mind all these You know all these barrow boys from the IP floor and now moving on to screen based and Yes, thank you. I'm thankfully very successful You know, although that whole adult the old adage of it's not what you make is what you keep I'm probably a good example of how to make it and possibly not keep as much as you should That's another story more more for a pub more than a webinar But yes, so after many years of Trading I Kind of you know lost the love of it slightly a few times a couple of near mental breakdowns and what have you and It was in 2019 I decided to start Pripyat Psi Q and the basically the idea behind it is I want to provide people with as much information as I can For free from sources that perhaps they wouldn't have access to or perhaps they wouldn't know where to look kind of like aggregating as much information as possible Obviously within that I To those of you that know me know that I'm not the most serious of people So there's an awful lot of shit posting per involved in that But I do a more serious newsletter in the mornings I'm also about to release a new product called PIQ sweet, which for you for those of you on Twitter that use tweet deck It's basically tweet deck Plus so it's like a pinned version of tweet deck where not only can you add columns for your Twitter lists? But you can add RSS RSS feed columns in there market data columns I'm in talks with a few other Premium data providers and headline providers to you know have cons that anyway, you don't hear about all that the crux is my basic raise and detra is to provide as much information to you guys as Possible and all for as free as possible or very low cost So yeah, that's me my in terms of trading. I am very much In the frame of mind is I like to develop a theme based on what's going on in the world and then I look for The best market to suit that thing and to me that's the natural way of doing things I know for many people they would prefer to stick in one market and then Try and think of themes that then fit the market. They're trading. I really don't like that I would like to I prefer to have every market at my disposal and To then choose the market that fits the theme that I believe in the most Because yeah, there's only so many battles you can fight and I don't want to be fighting the battle Well, I'm looking for something that fits my market because you end up trying to shoehorn in the wrong kind of theme and Yeah, it's me just doesn't work. But yeah, so that's a very broad Kind of history of me and what I look for in the markets So Ryan your theme If I'm a little cut in is that macro based or is it technical analysis base? What it was, you know, what are you? What are you based your theme on because obviously me as a technical analyst? Yeah, generally look at prices being the most important price point. You obviously Don't share that because I've seen some of your cynical tweets about technical analysis and I have to say Yeah, some technical analysis is a little bit shall we say I'm questionable but for me It's one of the most important elements in risk management Oh, but it's for sure. Yeah, so to answer your question my Technical technical analysis for me. It just isn't for me. Basically. Um, you know, I I will develop a theme More purely on macro And you know, what's going on in the world geopolitics Um, you know, just kind of trying to get a feel for what like I'd say for the macro kind of aspect of things Um, I will then look to the markets that you know should perform Based on my theme then I might you know looked for some very simple technical analysis just to tell me What's you know, where I'm going to get the most legs on a trade? Um, like we've spoken previously Um, you know on weeks ago about kind of similar things like this in terms of um In terms technical analysis, I very rarely look beyond A few moving averages and we're talking like big moving averages. So like say 50 day 200 day moving averages Previous like major lows major highs in the market kind of more. Yeah more the price action than Anything else. Um, but that's not to say technical analysis doesn't work because although I do You know, I I do dig it out on twitter quite a lot. Um, I'm yeah, I'm just doing that for a bit fun. I Personally, I should you're just doing that to get a reaction. Well. Yeah, exactly. Um, I do think 95 of technical analysis that people use is bollocks But I think that's more of a case that it's due to most people use rubbish technical analysis like Because they don't know how to use it and I think that's probably where you and I probably do agree The yeah to use technical analysis in the right way Yeah, exactly. Like when I see people with like Fibonacci fans and Cup and bowls. I like on the balance sheet Yeah, oh my it's like every time someone divides by the fed balance sheet and angel loses its wings. It's like, can we stop doing it? I think this is the important thing. You've got to cut through an awful lot of stuff on twitter That and in general, I think that's nonsense Yeah, definitely But also you got to remember as well that most of the people selling these But most of people selling technical analysis or selling all this They're doing it because you know, they're not doing it because they're making millions out of it themselves You know no trader that's making serious money Is selling a subscription for 50 bucks a month? No Is why we're selling this is it? You know, why would you give away your edge if your edge is you know, there's only a certain number of lots on the Bit of the offer if you've got this all singing all dancing Technical driven signal generator You do not want to share it because if you do everyone's going to be hitting the same price and you're not going to get filled It just when you break it down to kind of that kind of thing. It becomes obvious that most the people Um in the industry, unfortunately the world most the vocal people in the industry and you know, obviously you can't stand They're on uh on webinars. No, but people that's fair and no people like that Let's let's let's just keep names out of it. But we we all know we all know who the repeater funders are It's but yeah, and this like I say if you keep technical analysis very very simple um Yeah, it's I've got nothing wrong with it. Um, I see nothing wrong with it and there's there's definitely a place for it. Um I saw a 20 earlier today if I could just jump in From someone who shall remain nameless who says why are people buying cable? Um, it should be it should be an awful lot lower. I think the person in question knows he is well based on this chart Why would you not be buying cable? Well on top of that I would also say that uk cpi was um a little bit stronger than expected Yeah, which gives a bit more uh ammunition for the the boe the hawks within the boe that want to um increase rates Don't forget before the the recent uk tax news um Everyone was talking about the boe hiking rates. Obviously then boris johnson and sunak announced that there's going to be some taxation Um straight away people that obviously sterling got hit purely because the idea being the logic that the follow through logic was that Okay, well if they're increasing tax That's a more that's a negative pressure on the economy Therefore those in the boe those in friend needle street that were Just on the verge of you know pushing for a rate hike. We're now back off their timing is key though Well, this is it. Um, and then obviously you get today Pardon sorry, they're not coming till next april so it's not a problem No, exactly economy is No, I agree, but then you get like today's boe uh, so like today's data and Yeah, it's inflation. You know, we're going the opposite our inflation numbers going the opposite way to the us So no why wouldn't you know, we've just yesterday we had quite like, you know Quite decent proof that um us inflation is indeed transitory. Don't at me at that. You know, that's just my view It's the right view, but uh, we will come to that later. Um Because ppi is going in the opposite direction to cpi, but that's a completely different Unargument. Yeah. Um, well, yeah, obviously and then you can say well actually hang on the fed actually prefer to use pc Then cpi anyway But the the generic like as in but kind of the overall theme being the data in the us seems to be softening whereas the um The inflation metrics in the uk affirming Um, so, you know, we could very easily see the boe being one of the first major central banks to to hike rates And also when I say hike rates is everyone's got it in their mind that you know, you hike from 25 basis points we know from Um before like well pre covid when we were kind of looking to get it back involved into rate cycles um So there's all there's an awful lot of rumors out there the bank of england their first Rate move might not be 25 basis points. It might be 12 and a half basis points And it'll probably be Because they cut from a point 25 to 0.1 Um, soon after they cut from 0.75 to point 25 Yeah, very good point. Very good point. This is what I mean. It's like so me. I'm uh, well, okay I'm perma bear on the cable. Uh, well perma bear sterling. Sorry. Um At the moment, I'm pretty damn bearish. I pretty damn bullish Um cable, um, obviously that's because of my my bullish Sterling views and also I happen to be bearish dollar as a whole. I'm short dollar at the moment. Um, I was quite vocal in Um from like july saying I wanted to sell 93 50 in the dollar index Um, I think it got to 93 70 so or so maybe 60 something Um, so I've got very kind of the patients paid off which surprised me can walk normally When I'm patient, um, it bites me in the ass so Um at the moment, obviously what we traded now 92 50. So, you know a big point on side We'll see how that goes my target on that's like much lower. I want to see sub 90s really, but um, we'll see how that goes I'm bullish on cable. I mean I used to trade it. Um, so You know, I mean, obviously I've had good days on it and the bad days on it But I much prefer buying it to selling it. Yeah Sometimes the big moves happen to the downside and I've certainly been caught the wrong side of a few of them um, but I certainly didn't think that, um Then when we were at 120 we'd be going to parity, you know, you heard all these parity calls from all of these big shops And to be quite honest, you know for me those big calls generally only come about because they want to get on bloomburg or cnbc You've got to sort I will actually know that's nonsense because it's not a binary outcome You've got push-pull of fed bank of england ecb You know and for me, you know, if you wanted parity on cable You'd have to put euro sterling at 110 and that's just never going to happen Well, this is it and it's funny you should say that about people wanting to get on tv. It's like, you know, you see, um, the banks and like fx trading shops and stuff While boutiques and whatnot putting out their um, their targets You know, they know if they put out a a rascal target that's way outside They know they're going to get highlighted on reuters. You know, I know someone might even be listening today or on a recording of this The works for an effect shop And you know, he's openly said to me that you know in the past they put out They'll see what everyone else's target is and then go like two big points of bubble below where the outlier is Just so they know if someone looks on um bloomberg, you know, where you can see everyone's targets like mapped out on the chart Um, it they stand out. You know, it's it's a pr exercise for most people Um, you know, especially when you look at people with zero skin in the game um Yeah, it's very easily to get um, wait, you know, it's the same with all these salesmen You know, there's a lot of salesmen on twitter in terms in this space, which is you know, one of the reasons why I kind of started doing what i'm doing is because i'm just trying i just hate the uh hate the bullshit involved But you know, it's a losing battle trying to fight it. I'm slowly coming to terms with that I think you just have to basically accept the world as it is and not as not as you'd like it to be And I think that's for me Come from experience and certainly I certainly think that sometimes Mr. Grumpy out there could probably Take a step back occasionally because otherwise his blood pressure will go through the roof and I know I'm going to get grief for that comment But yeah, um, yeah Sometimes you've just got to say okay fine, whatever, you know, if it makes you happy Yeah, I'm very bad at that to be fair. I'm trying to be more stoic in my outlook recently. Um, it's I've I've I've never got any work done. I've never got any work done if I basically Come on push push something out which was stupid on twitter. I really wouldn't say Um, it's not a hill that I'm prepared to die on for most of the time No, no true very true But you we've got the bank of England next week. We've got a federal reserve next week We've got the german elections And and for me, I think these three events Probably won't shift the dial too much in terms of my overall views on cable or euro dollar For that matter because to be quite honest while they're important macro events I don't think overall they're going to change the overall direction of travel for any of the currencies that we're looking at Um, yeah, I just agree there Um, because I think I think we could well see the bank of England Reduce their bond purchase program sooner than the federal reserve based on that data that we saw this morning We could get an announcement next week Yeah, I yeah again i'm with you and also as well as I In terms of like this, you know bank of England tapering obviously there's talks about the ecb tapering But not a taper all this rubbish and obviously the big tapering decision coming from um from the fed But I think people people see I sometimes I'm convinced There's a significant number of people that don't realize that tapering Isn't quantitative tightening. You know for that first month when they take, you know, say say they taper 20 billion a month say the federal reserve side taper 20 billion a month They won't do that much. I'll be surprised if they do 15, but this round number it and Bearing in mind that they're currently Um, yeah, they're currently buying 120 billion a month if they taper 20 a month for that first month They're still buying they're still buying 100 billion's worth of assets um, you know, it's it's so gradual it All this nonsense that you hear as soon as they begin tapering that you know the financial market will collapse Yeah, it won't the financial market at the moment does not give two hoots about the money being bought Hence why you've got like the reverse, uh, you got the repo operation Like, you know now plateaued above a trillion because you know banks It's not like yeah, they're not hard up for cash at the moment if if there's a liquidity drain Well, it's not even a liquidity drain of 20 billion. Sorry. Yeah 20 billion a month That's not going to affect anyone. It's certainly not going to You know be the tipping point for financial markets so much. Um, it's been overplayed on this hand Yeah, and when they do start tapering and nothing happens stocks continue to go up Bonds continue their long-term trend down Um, yeah, it's there's going to be a lot of people trying to you know Re-refit the narrative to suit the fact that nothing has happened But I think the discussion is a bit of a red herring because I think the Fed is more concerned about the employment outlook Or the unemployment rate than it is on the inflation outlook and those numbers Really bear that out. I think yeah, especially at the moment, you know, they've more I kind of laughed off the idea that their um, their inflation metric had been hit. Um But you know, you can't disagree with Fed members themselves when you know an increasing number of them have said that the The the inflation metric of you know of the inflation employment Um significant progress Yeah, they're all saying now that that that target has been met I find that a bit kind of odd because you know, this So I sustained over 2% for a long period of time that we haven't hit that yet. Yeah, we okay. We're over 2% But you know, everyone's calling it transitory, which it is Um, but anyway, that's by the bottom inflation percentage. Would we look at post tapering either in the uk or the us? or both Um, I personally don't think it's that important central banks generally tend to look through inflation If it doesn't so I'm waiting for it to come back and I don't think this will be any different Yeah, I completely agree. Like there's the thing is there are so many tools now in in the um monetary policy toolbox That were not, you know, people that people are there actively looking for repeats of, you know The wyme are republic and like hyperinflation. It's almost like some people want that to happen Just so they can say they were right, um, which is a ridiculous stance to take because you're you know, that's that was an awful time Um, so I won't get my head around those people and I kind of think they need to be a boy No, but I think it was different then because obviously everyone's doing it now So the net effect of it basically tends to cancel each other out And this is this is the thing as well, right, Michael. It's like, you know, say, you know, say the us, um You know say we do get another problem in a few years time as has been proven Um, you know in cobit, you know, pretty much every crisis recently if the us works to solve their own problem It the knock-on effect it kind of goes a long way to solving the global economic problem So, you know, that's why you you know, you often see central banks waiting for the federal reserve to act first Because it knows it takes the pressure off of what they need to do Um, and that's only going to increase it's like every time we have a crisis now is you know, I remember the You know talk going back about how it's the anniversary of late the layman brothers bankruptcy I remember then, you know, I remember sitting at my desk and hearing like 300 million announces, you know Like for a bailout for this that and the other and I was like, yeah blow in my mind. It's oh my god, 300 billion dollars now 300 billion dollars. It's you know That's It's bugger all, you know, like, you know, we joke like billions became the new millions and now it's trillions of the new billions and I think I think the point when it comes to equity markets I'm also being asked Do we have any thoughts on china? Obviously there was those retail sales figures this morning, which were pretty awful Um, obviously we have the ever grand situation and obviously the regulatory crackdown. How much scope is there for What china's doing right now to cause a little bit of a schism in financial? Obviously in terms of the the data from china, um, yeah I think every piece of data you take At china in terms of economic data, you have to take a pinch of salt I personally I do not trust and do not look to chinese economic data for any of my decisions. Um Yeah, it does generate a reaction though. So you can't completely, of course No, no, of course it will generate a knee jerk reaction on the following days trade or following weeks trade But for me personally when i'm building up my theme for trading, um, I do not look at, you know industrial output from the official chinese numbers as a What was that? I do not look at official data to help me with my themes. Um, I look for comparable You know, I look for trade data like data from the us on kind of trade with china and from with europe and You know german exports and stuff like that. Those are the metrics that you can use to try and gauge your Yeah, that was a big tell that german exports number to china the other week. That was a big tell for Yeah, um, but in terms of china also that you know talking about geopolitics, which is obviously, you know china is the big one Um, you know, that would be one of the first things I look at the morning Is what is the overnight news from various chinese ministries? Um, you know, there's multiple ways you can do that. Obviously twitters are very easy way Yeah, you've got um roisters if people have got roisters, you obviously got the news court channels and and whatnot um, in terms of my current outlook for um, how things are going say on us sino sino relations um Both parties are desperate to come to some kind of agreement Um, but obviously no one wants to be seen as the one You know backing down or going a bit kind of keen although biden's very recent comments have seemed a little bit keen although he's denied that Uh, denied that he has been kind of desperate for an agreement and a meeting. Um In terms of the short term, I think we're going to see plenty more chop in terms of the rhetoric between the two parties Um, but medium term, um, I think everyone's going to get together and you know, they'll be shaking hands Yeah, we're seeing an increased amount of pressure from um, like agricultural sector in the u.s. Where they're desperate for You know the trade to keep to get going again We're seeing a lot of exporters starting to get very keen on biden to kind of make an agreement and also From the chinese perspective, although they're they're very happy to pretend It's all singing or dancing the fact that they know they've got this everground Hangover looming And also if you look at the high um, the high frequency data from china Namely the you know the the highway traffic the highway traffic has stalled You know pardon the pun Well, well, well well well below the you know the 2019 levels. So, you know make no mistakes china are hurting um You know as well as the u.s. So I do believe that as much as we'll see some quite choppy noisy Um, rhetoric in the short term Especially using taiwan as just you know a little bit of a an easy headline to grab Um, I do think medium term it will be all sorted out and I you know, I'm at the moment I'm looking to get well i'm getting like very itchy trigger finger on maybe perhaps punting a small long in everground itself because um Yeah, I don't think I don't think for one second the chinese will let that Uh the contagion spread You're gonna do what I did with rbs back in 2009 Yeah, when you when you mentioned that trade the early one before we went on air I was thinking well funny you should say that i'm looking to do very similar. It's just you know everground is such a You know it is such an advertisement for like a failed policy from china Um, you know if they let this you know, I think they're making a very good example out of um everground in terms of Um to you know comparative companies within china they're saying look, you know, we are going to let you fall to pieces We are going to let you erode all your capital. Um, and your share price more important But will they let that damage the the rest of the you know, the the chinese experiment I don't think for one second they will allow that. Um, it would just be too embarrassing for them So it's just not just that though. It's the banking sector as a whole as well It's I mean we saw what happened with leemons, right? Well, exactly Exactly and bearing in mind at the time and even more recently now they're saying, you know, they're making all these like they're bringing forward all this regulation You know, whether or not you believe it's the reason or not But the reason they're giving is they're bringing it forward to you know to stop Yeah over you know excessive risk To their financial system. Well, you know a bit late for that with everground because that's a huge risk to their financial system Which is another reason why I just don't think they'll let it, you know, completely tear Tear the um the economy apart, you know, they they can do a lot to stop it They get you know, they can let it fell and they can contain contagion Um, yeah, so if I was a better man guns in my head, I would be looking You know to to start maybe add into a long position in uh in that Um, you know, it's one of those, you know, you got to talk about every trade in terms of risk reward Obviously, there's high risk that this goes to zero Um, but the reward it's worth the same as you said when you buy by rbs at 10 pence. Um, you know, it's It's it's an equal This is it. It's you know, and that's how you got to look at it. You know, would I be looking Would I have I've been looking to buy everground until the last couple of days? Not a chance But now they're trading what's sub free. Um, I just think, you know, there is more upside than downside I think that you make a very important point there you wait for the market to come to you And you don't chase the market. I think one of the most common mistakes I used to make when I was younger Was that if I got a trade wrong and I lost money on it I was quite keen to jump back in again And I'll make that back, but you don't you shouldn't be doing that You shouldn't be trying to chase a loss and try and make it back, you know at the end of the day You know trades are like London buses. You may not see one for about, you know Two or three days and it's suddenly three come along at once and then really is a question of whether or not You're spoiled for choice and I think that's the key enemy of any trader impatience Oh most definitely and especially, you know, and that impatience certainly ratchets like racked it's up. Sorry um a few gears after you've had a we are losing trade because Certainly thinking I need to make that money back um Yeah, and it is the wrong. It is the wrong way to uh to look at it because you know For me again, you know, I think fortunately by building themes and then building trades around the theme It does kind of almost subconsciously slow down my process um, yeah, I'm not I'm not kind of Fitting technical levels to a market just so I can get a trade on Um, yeah, but again, yeah, like I said, I will not say that technical trading doesn't make money Because I know a couple of traders that pretty much only rely on technical trading and they make money It just so I can say, you know, this this chart here is a case in point I'm not interested in the cable at the moment But if it drops back to my blue line Then I will buy a cable with a stop loss Just below that line and look for a rally back to 139 140 because it's my view is cable goes up I've set a rule on it that rule is the trend line from the lows in august We've we've seen two or three touches of that line. So it's valid therefore My my loss my downside is fixed. I know exactly what it's going to be but on the flip side I also know what my profit is going to be because I've got three peaks four peaks Around about 139 10 15 20 Which are likely to cap any move higher. So that's where I take my profit If we do break higher then obviously we've got a series of highs up here So for me, it's really about what's the price action doing the highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher So the trend in the short term is higher. And that's the way I structure everything You know, I try and not let my um biases Get in the way In that situation which you've given there, um, yeah in terms, you know how you trade When you uh, you say you've got your target. Would you also leave someone for you know, in case you do get flush higher Or do you look to you know, you have targets where you exit your your entire trade? Now what it depends on my feeling at the time Um, if I felt that we were going to go for a move higher then I may liquidate half the position Which obviously would then bring my average down to below the trend line And obviously there is a very very big support level all the way through here at 137 25 Through there. So what I might do is I might take a little bit of profit up here And then put a stop loss and leave the stop loss exactly where it is Yeah And then see what see what transpires, you know, it really depends on the situation There is not I don't have a hard and fast rule on any particular trade But what and that's Going sorry No, but the one rule I do have is I won't I won't run that profit into a loss So because that line is sloping upwards as soon as the price action breaks that line, I'm out Well, yeah, and I think I think you're right in what you've said there about You know, you have no hard and fast rules in terms of you know, how much you look to get at certain levels You know One thing I've never understood is when people talk about ours as in you know I'm looking for for free ours and then I get out of all my My my trade and stuff and I think you know for me personally I know a lot of one of the biggest questions I get when you know Because I always try and give time to To new traders and stuff obviously if they start taking the piss a little bit I kind of end up having to say look I restrict you to one question a day kind of thing But normally the number one question is do I use stops and Yeah, I do not have when I put a trade on I don't have a stop price in mind. I have a Kind of an area where you know, if nothing has changed in the in the news front in the theme front But the market gets to that level Um, I then start okay. Well, maybe I'm just wrong Um, but at the same again, I could be you know, the market could trade sideways from my entry But if all of a sudden I'm starting picking up on news stories or just just the whole theme of the market is changing Even though say I might even be a few people might you know, I might be a percent or two on side But if the theme of the market is changing in my eyes Um, I'll be out of the trade. You know and same is you know, if the If the mark if I'm a percent or two offside, but my the you know, the theme I'm working on Yeah, it seems to be improved more and more right I you know, I'm not saying I'll add to the trade, but I certainly won't be getting out And in terms of that's why I can't really I'm not the kind of trade that can have a set stop and And I will you know, hold my hands up and say this is completely You know, what you you know, you're taught you always have to have a stop and you know admittedly to an extent you do But I trade my size accordingly where Yeah, I could suffer, you know a very bad day on a particular market because because I'm looking for the medium longer term moves I'm only trading smaller size anyway In terms of experience there, Ryan, I think if you're talking to someone who's just starting out I probably wouldn't encourage them to be Stop fluid if you like. No, no, yeah You're you're this is the but this is why it's so difficult to like to explain and this is why I tell people do not You know, do not look to copy someone else's style because you know a lot of people like my idea of trading Which is kind of sit back Just follow news follow kind of you know, it might take me three four months to build up a trade idea um And people like that idea because you know, they kind of especially people that are doing this part time as well as something else But the fact is yeah I all I do is stare at markets for you know from 5 30 in the morning till the UK morning until 9 o'clock at night for the US clothes So, you know even subconsciously I'm kind of you know getting market kind of intelligence into my head um So, you know, it's it's easy for me to say. Oh, yeah, I don't use stops and I don't have a target I just change my mind or get out or get in when when the theme dictates But I do appreciate that that is something that most people can't do But what I will say whilst we're kind of talking about you know, the whole idea of helping people if if anyone does have any questions Or not that I reckon not that I'm you know, the best trader out there far from it um, but if anyone does kind of like The ideas of what I'm saying, um, you know, my dms are always open as they say on twitter And I'm always more than happy to talk crap about markets. It's you know Be too well, you can't go down the pub anymore. So, uh, well, as you know, you know, you can um But yeah, so uh, if anyone wants to check crap about the market just hit me up Yeah, but I think that you make a very good point and I think that's one of the things I learned very early on when I first started out on my my sort of markets career you always Tried to sort of follow people who you respected and followed and you know and try and follow their trade ideas and you suddenly Realized that sometimes following them was probably not the best idea and Sometimes it went against your own gut instinct in terms of what you felt the market was going to do But because you didn't have the experience to know better You went against your gut instinct and decided to go with them and you ended up losing money Now I always go with my gut instinct through An awful lot of trial and error and ultimately then no one is responsible for me losing money apart from me Well, yes, exactly. That's the that's the thing, isn't it? Is if you follow someone in it's very very easy to Shoulder none of the blame for your bad trade Um, and that's entirely the wrong thing to do even if you are following someone in It's your decision to follow someone in if that goes wrong. It's a hundred percent your fault Um, and it's so hard for some especially newer traders to kind of understand that Yeah, and that's why No matter how yeah when you're first starting it's good to have someone to kind of roughly kind of Not show you the ropes but just to kind of ask opinions from and you know, see see what you can gain from From their perspective, but then do that to three or four different people do that three or four different traders Yeah, try and get a more of a rounded feel. He's like, you know, I learned I learned probably 90 of what I Built on in the first Year and a half of being a runner and that was you know, there was 30 40 traders in the trading floor Any time that I wasn't I know off to make a cup of tea or something for someone or doing someone's laundry I'll be sitting next to a random trader and just watching them obviously Yeah, I can see who's making the money and just sit with them for a while. You're actually doing the laundry. Were you? Oh, well, I was well taking it to the lawn director. I say, um, Yeah, I used to have to take That you do not want me doing your laundry. I'll give you a clue. Everything will come out pink Um, which Joe suits me But go on. Sorry. I was digressing slightly. I just Yeah, I learned pretty much everything that I then built from from that very first period before even started trading You know, it's just in terms of mindsets and you know, not in terms of I wasn't sitting there learning Exactly how they trade because everyone is different. But in terms of you know, how do people handle loss? How do people handle winners? Yeah, and also a thing that I kind of speak about nearly every time I do a podcast or a webinar with someone is the fact that Personally, I think the barriers to entry for trading are far too low um, and I think it's you know news today that robin hood are going to the beginning of like a yeah, basically um, drumming up new clients by going to um, city colleges and I think that's wrong. I think that's wrong. I mean, I don't know what the sec is thinking In allowing in allowing that It's it's it's the wrong way. It's you know The reason they're doing that is because they need robin hood need losing traders to make money basically because if the reason why say that and people might argue it but Yeah, most of robin hood's Profit comes from selling order flow Now for that they need lots of order flow But if you're a trader that is cleaned up trading on robin hood The first one of the first things you're going to do is you're going to then you know Take it professional and then you're not going to be using robin hood if you're a professional trader You are not trading on robin hood. You're using what about, you know You know, you're setting up an account with Schwab or or ameritrade or someone like that. Yeah um Well, that's a different right right if I get you that's a different mindset I mean generally people who to trade with Schwab are investors not traders Bad example, but what I mean is people will go But they'll go for direct market access or stuff like that or uh, or you know, like go go to yourselves or something robin hood is the game of five. Yeah, it's it's the It's the sandbox. It's it's the playground for trading, right? If you become successful You're not going to stay at robin hood. So what they need to do and it's very much the same as what happened with betfair So betfair market for you that I'm getting most people most know but for those of you that don't it's It's the first sports betting exchange um Their model was put sports bettors together They'll make the price their trade and betfair take a tiny commission off of each side Which is brilliant. The only downside became when you had all these very very shrewd successful um sports betting punters were basically Cleaning out the the mug money the people that you know only have a sunday bet They were doing that week in week out to the extent where betfair then after you know, they were running out of the other side of the trade So what they then had to do is they basically they spent a huge percentage of their revenue in adverts trying to bring in more accounts to feed their professional punters and then it got even worse when you know now people say, you know Betting is tax-free in the uk. Well, if you're if you earn over a certain amount of money on betfair They can charge you up to I think it's like 50 maybe even 60 percent of your winnings now because they have to fund ways to get more mug money into the account Um, and that's exactly what we're seeing with robin hood And it should be the other way around Nothing drives me up the wall more than a new trader starts punter. You see them You know, they you know, they start posting pictures and stuff. They're trading a market If you ask them, like what is that market? It's half them wouldn't know You know, if you're trading the s&p 500 you should know, you know, i'm not asking you to name every stock in it But you should know what are the main, you know, so what are the top five six weighted stocks in the market? You know, what are the hours it trades? You know, what's the tick size? You know, what's the daily range is like, you know, what's it's all these questions? You know, they're not hard to grasp But until you know them You're you're always at risk. Um So, yeah, that the whole barriers of entry thing is it does grind my gears Like a very good point trading isn't for everyone. Um, I think the mark of a good trader is not so much How many good trades you have But how you react after a particularly bad one or a bad trade? And does your confidence basically disappear? Um, you know faster than a nice cube in the desert Well, I think Yeah, and I think that's a true test You know, if if you can bounce back from a bad trade Believe me, I've had a few over the years Then you probably have the right mentality for trading, but you know This market has a habit of being very unforgiving to people who take liberties with it Oh, exactly. It's like we've mentioned before. It's like the market will humble you very very quickly and readily It's you know, it's always looking to uh to bite you in the ass basically Okay, so as I say, we're not really expecting much from the federal reserve in the bank of England We've got us retail sales tomorrow and you know, I think for me Those inflation numbers are likely to point to another disappointing number perhaps I'm on the part of the US consumer and I think that more than anything could well make things complicated for the Fed But for me, the important number is the payrolls number on october the 8th Yes, I I um, I think like most the the consensus now is that september for a Fed announcement on our tapering what is dead Um, I think everyone would be shocked if they do anything there. So like you say And kind of like they they telegraphed in the The previous month or so. They're looking for a few consistent strong um payroll data Obviously, you know, I don't think you can call. Yeah, I don't think you can begin to call the payroll data. We've had recently consistent um, but if we get a solid number on A solid october number Well, so for september data released first friday of october, um, if that is solid um I really believe we that brings november into play my base case for an announcement would be november And it's you know, I tweeted back in june or july that Yeah, I I was expecting kind of a very very heavy handed kind of Yeah, unofficial nod in jackson hull We didn't really get that But even with that, I also said that they would then wait until november for the official announcement I'm still i'm sticking to my guns for a for a november announcement But I don't think they'll let it begin until january. I don't think it's going to be a Yeah, I don't think it's going to be announced and then you know start straight away or start a month after I think it's going to be a a decent bit of time, but um The there's a december leaving between the november one and january um, and I sort of course I cast my mind back to 2015 When the fed were basically procrastinating about their first rate hike And there was some expectation. They do it in september 2015 in the end. They didn't they did it in december 2015 and i'm wondering if A tapering announcement could follow a similar pattern as it did six years ago And the thing is as well like you say it's like the the fed they do love a You know rely on old patterns if you know what I mean, it's so you know what it's This is one of the things why i'm convinced that they do I know it might be a bit small for most people, but I i'm convinced that they only do 10 billion in terms of tapering What and they begin in january? Why do I say that for one? Yeah, they're they're not in a rush to to taper it all away So 10 billion fits that bill, but also if they start tapering 10 billion in january Obviously 12 months. It's 120 billion to do do 10 billion a month You know, it takes out the whole of 2022 and a nice easy clean 2022 the year of tapering You know, that's I know kind of people might laugh that off, but you know You know the perfect reasonable scenario, what would you say to the people who argue that people like bullard and daily who are voting numbers next year Want a quicker reduction in pace of asset purchases? Do you think that the voting members could have I would say that I would say that it's What what members say when they're non-voters is no guarantee of what they say or what they think when they're voting Um, it's very easy for You know someone that has no skin in the game someone that has no actual say To come out with quiet land outlandish comments And again, it kind of relates back to what we've said before about targets Price targets, you know, someone makes a ballsy comment. They get in the paper Oh Are you still there mate? I think I might have lost him for a bit. Sorry. I'm back doorbell So to wave someone away. Um, yeah, so You know One even if they do stick to their guns and they want the aggressive tapering. It's only, you know, it's only two members But more importantly, honestly, what you've got to be aware of Who's voting and what that's what they're saying if the non-voter is suggesting something You have to take it with a slight pinch of salt. Do not automatically roll that into your thinking Okay, well, they will think the same thing when they are taught when they are voting Um, it just doesn't work like that human nature doesn't work like that Just thought I played devil's advocate me No, I agree. This is not to work. This is just not to work the definition of transitory I'm not going down that road. I haven't got all day And you might start to um roll out your transitory Right, so we're just coming into the end of the webinar now. Did you want to basically showcase? um your um Uh, yeah, I can do what's that platform. So I'm going to hand over control to you Yeah, so what I will do hang on if I can work this out take control Oh But I'm going to try and share my screen here one sec. So Can you guys see that? Yep, we're good. Yeah So this so in terms of when I say like everyone knows I follow news So what I look at constantly is here These four panels in the bottom left. That's my Reuters news headlines Um, obviously that is a a premium product. Um, Although, you know, funny enough if you not that this is an advertisement But if you if you did want access to this, I've got some deal that can sort people out of Um on the right hand side bottom right. This is the new squawk headline feed And the top section the top half is my own product that is just about to launch called piq suite. Um And just a quick overview of everything. So basically I will stare at this window all day every day And from this, yeah, obviously part of my my business is regurgitating the news onto twitter for people to to have access to Again, it goes back to what I've said before Yeah, I've a huge believer in everyone should have the same amount of information In terms of um, Quick kind of promotion for my own product in terms of my own piq suite Like I said before it the idea is it's a pimped up version of tweet deck So if you can see this you might have to zoom in on the On the how let me zoom in I can zoom in a little bit there. Um, so yeah So basically you can add your own twitter account economic data, um, which is just pricing data and mark over you So mark over you which is economic, um, which is pricing economic data, which is your data calendar twitter lists These are the the six twitter lists that I use on tweet deck And they're the lists that I've made myself and I curate I actively curate them And the news feeds at the moment It's just all the main topics you can think of including sports obviously because you know, we're not we're not animals We can we need a bit of entertainment And it's all um curated rss feeds. I've compiled into into one column. So you select what column you want You can then drag your columns around Basically, the idea is is to make yeah one dashboard if you like for all the free news that's available Um, if in the future well very soon, hopefully we'll um once we've rolled it out We will be looking to add further features such as this. So basically this new squawk window here, which is My own card. Well, this is my login to new squawk, which you know, they also which are fantastic guys They provide audio squawk Um, basically it's a team of them that's that's staring at bloomberg reuters all this stuff that read out the headlines Um, and then they put it into a text form as well They'll soon will be the feature to be able to have this inside the tweak the end. Sorry inside the piq suite Um, we're also looking to add the audio squawk I'm actually also speaking to reuters as well to see about if we can incorporate there the main kind of news headlines, which are obviously the fastest ones you can get into the The piq suite as well and The good news is that the idea and you know the the couple of guys that i'm kind of That bought into it with me. Um, they hate me for it But my main goal is to make it as cheap as possible Primarily free So I want you know, the office course is going to be certain features that you know You're going to have to pay up for because if i'm paying for it to have access to it You're going to have to pay me for the privilege You know, I need to make some money somewhere But yeah, so and this this for me if you are keen on geopolitics if you are keen on following the news Yeah, this is something you absolutely do need to or how do we stop me sharing now Yeah, so this is absolutely something that'll be up your up your street And again, although officially it's not launched yet If you're interested I can you know drop me a direct message and I will be able to give you a a link that will connect you to the the server where it goes live Um, it just it's not on the official site yet. But yeah hit me up on that. Um, but yeah, it's for me Um for someone that loves trading off of news trading off of you know the geopolitics side of things It's You know those four those three things piq suite the newscork and Reuters I can't live without it And that's pretty much it Yep. Yep. I can hear you. Sorry. I just put myself on mute. We've got to take myself off. So I'm talking I'll put you right off Thanks. Thanks. Thanks for that Ryan. Um, as I say, I use I use tweet deck a lot as well and to be quite honest In addition to my Bloomberg, I probably couldn't do without it. And I think that's important You think you need to follow the right people Um, and I say I've been on twitter since 2008 2009 Some people have come and gone But ultimately I think in terms of the people I follow, you know, I generally tend to follow people that are Generally, um, what I would call a responsible when it comes to tweeting information And um credible and I think that's the most important thing Um, because if you've got credible sources and you've got your own filter as well Um, you certainly need a filter on twitter when you see some of the the nonsense that comes out But nonetheless, one of the right people on twitter and you ask the right questions. Um, you can probably Go on just quickly just quickly on the twitter front. I completely forgot So these are the twitter lists that I curated I used to actually offer that as part of my my morning newsletter service But I've recently decided to make it all free. So if you are on twitter and you You know, you're just you know, you hate how noisy it is because you're following different people's conversations So if you Go to piq lists, which I will Tweet, maybe I'll tweet it to you so you can see it and from there You can just subscribe to the list that I curate and then basically you're following the the refined version of twitter And it's it's a complete game changer. I know, you know, like our friend Michael brown. He's been using it since day one I'm pretty much most. Yeah, it's a mix of traders use it. I know a few quite large brokerages I've given them access to my twitter list as well It's like we said before it's cutting out the noise. There's too much noise out there And I'll retweet it Yeah, I'll I'll send it all to you. Um, but yeah, it's I think you nailed it. It's like you need to Following the right people the credible people It's it's a complete game changer because there is so much Amazing information out there and there's amazing people that will will yeah genuine people that will help you out If you know where you're looking and and that's obviously half the game is knowing who to look for Okay, so that's round about just over now. I'd like to thank you Ryan for taking the time out of your very busy day to talk to me I'm hoping to do some more of these. Um, what I'm going to do is I'm going to post this online once I'm done on youtube um, but um And I'd be grateful as well if you could sort of feedback on the content that you've heard today because I will get to see it And hopefully we'll be able to do these on a more regular basis I certainly have found it instructive and I certainly hope that um, you guys have to as well Yeah, thank you for helping me. It's been uh, been a good little chat Cheers Ryan. Thanks a lot mate