 Welcome traders to another Tickmill Weekly Market Outlook with me, Patrick and me for a week commencing on the 27th of September. Dollar heads into the week, a bid on Friday and to be honest, a little surprise that did not rally even more on a set of hawkish Fed dots that showed a tightening cycle way above anything priced into money markets. Highlights in the week head will be a host of Fed speakers attending conferences on both sides at the Atlantic. It may be difficult for them to surprise the market now given that Powell made it reasonably clear that tapering will be announced in November, completing next summer and perhaps making the case for the first Fed hike as early as September 2022. US data in the week head focuses on consumer confidence, personal income and September ISM manufacturing. In addition to a supportive Fed backdrop for the dollar, a fragile risk environment could also lend the dollar further support. There have been grand debt resolution stories far from clear. Chinese authorities wish for ever going to resolve its challenges by itself and there may be further twists and turns before a full debt restructuring is announced. We'll also hear more from US Congress about the debt ceiling this week. October 1st is the deadline to approve any stopgap funding bill. Though really strictly mid-October seems to be more the deadline to focus on for the US Treasury, we'll have to start scaling back activities. And short risk assets may struggle to find equilibrium this week. So from the technical perspective as the dollar index continues to hold, the 93-hour support, I'm looking for this extension into the 94-handle. It's going to be a key pivot for the dollar and watching for bearish reversal patterns in this zone to re-engage the dollar on the short side, certainly looking for a test of trend line support. And if we can get through there and move down into 91.70 will be the next downside objective ahead of a test of the 90-handle. At this stage, only a close above 94.30 would suggest that the dollar is actually moving into an extended upside reversal. In the Eurozone, focus really is going to be on who will be the next German Chancellor. Monday should see the dust start to settle on the German election results, although it could take some time and much more horse trading until a new government is formed. The elections have not had much impact on the Euro so far. Pinning a market reaction on the results is tricky, but latest views suggest the left wing government could be poorly received by the Euro, while a surprise CDU-FDP coalition would be well received. On the macro side, the focus will very much be on prices and what the ECB plans to do about them. Friday sees the release of September Eurozone CPI expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year and probably trigger a fresh outcry from the ECB Hawks. We call that contains many speeches from the ECB big hitters including Lagarde and Lane, who will likely have to hold off the Hawks. A more hawkish ECB story may be the best hope for the Euro to defend the 117 handle this week. From a technical perspective, still as we hold our 117-60 to 117-80s resistance, I'm looking for a test down into the Equality Objective 116-28 and projected descending trend channel support coming in at 115-80. Watching for bullish reversal patterns in this area set long positions, initially looking for tests of descending trend line resistance at a 118 handle. At this stage, only a loss of a close below the 115-70 trend line support will be a significantly bearish development opening move to test 114-30. A similar story really in Japan, it's going to be about who the new LDP leader is. September 29 sees the LDP leadership election, which given the LDP dominance in Japanese politics is effectively the race to become Japan's next Prime Minister. There are four candidates in the race with the front-runner seen as Taro Kono, the country's vaccination minister. Of the candidates, reports suggest Kono is the furthest away from other nomics that triggered the big yen sell-off seen in 2013-2014. Given what could be another tricky week for risk assets, it's difficult to see how the dollar yen is going to extend further to the outside, with the speculative market still very much short the yen. From a technical perspective, looking for an extension into the 111-65 area, we look for some profit-taking pullbacks there, but ultimately I'm looking for still looking for this grind hire to get a test initially of the 112-50 with that 113-07 equality objective just above. At this stage, you can't really look to the bearish side in terms of the dollar yen until we take out trend line support now back below 109-60. In the UK, sterling likely over discounted the adverse risk environment at the start of the week and managed to recover some losses after the Bank of England sent some hawkish signals as it announced policy on Thursday. In particular, two points appeared to have a more hawkish than expected tone. Firstly, the acknowledgement that some recent developments had strengthened the case for moderate tightening. Secondly, the fact that one NPC men looked rance and joined Saunders, invoking a gains maintaining the same asset purchase target. The UK economy is still set to face a number of headwinds this winter and the NPC still appears divided around the threat that higher inflation is posing an issue. In turn, it looks like the current market pricing of a February 15 basis point rate hike seems a little bit too hawkish as I think we probably don't see any hikes before mid 2022. This is probably going to limit any further upsides of potential for sterling stemming from rate expectations. Incidentally, I think we can become increasingly sensitive for sterling to data as any signs of weakness in the UK economy and especially in the jobs market could make investors scale back their views on that February hike. However, this should not be a story for the week ahead as the UK calendar only includes some housing data and the final reader of second quarter GDP given sterling's recent increase in sensitivity to global risk version. I think incoming years from China is probably more likely to drive the pound in the week ahead. As we continue to hold the 137.60s resistance, I'm looking for a test pivotal support at 135.60. This is going to be key area if we can see some bullish reversal patterns here. I've been looking on the long side, looking for a test of descending trend line resistance coming at 137.50. However, crucially if we do get a close below that 135.65 level then I'm looking for an extension to the downside to the equality objective at 133.30 before we see any meaningful correction to retest this pivotal support zone as resistance. Finally, down under in Australia, the Aussie really followed the swings of the sentiment around the Evergrande crisis quite closely and looks set to do so in the week ahead. We should see a very similar script as there are no market moving data in Australia except for all this retail sales numbers. Incidentally, as the Reserve Bank of Australia has officially frozen its policy until February 2022, data in the next few weeks may have a somewhat more limited impact on the currency. Aussie remains really the most fragile of the G10 space to any spillover from the potential Evergrande default and that is not only because Australia is the most China-dependent country in the G10 but also as the collapse of a real estate giant would raise further demand concerns in the iron ore market which may well generate another sell-off in the commodity prices. The only positive factor really for the Aussie now appears to be a technical nature as markets are already extensively short the currency. Still, any short squeeze is probably going to be short-lived in nature as the domestic and external downside risk continues to pile up for the Aussie. So, as the Aussie continues to hold the 7330 as resistance, I'm looking for an extension down to test prior lows of the 7106 handle and then as the price of port here at the 7220 access resistance ultimately looking to move down to test the yearly pivot just below the 70th September. At this stage, it would really take a close above the descending trend line resistance somewhere around 7420 to suggest that we have another LEGO corrective upside in play. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 27th of September. As always, trade us, plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.