 Good day, fellow investors. Welcome to the stock market news with the long-term fundamental twist. The SAP 500 is close to its all-time highs again. People mostly see that the SAP 500 ratio is 22, thus 100 divided by 22. The earnings yield, the return on investment over the long-term, should be 4.55%, add some growth, usual earnings growth of 2% per year, and you have 5 to 6% growth investment return, expected investment return over the long-term. Then you compare it to the yield of the 10-year treasury, which is 2.75%, and logically stocks are much cheaper, are a much better investment than other opportunities out there. However, this is limited thinking for me, because it's fixed on the current period in time, and many investors don't have options to think in a dynamic way, so they have to think fixed. And here is where our advantage comes, and let's see what Buffett advises us to do. From his 1988 letter to shareholders, he says the following, in any sort of a contest, financial, mental, or physical, it's an enormous advantage to have opponents who have been taught that it is useless to even try. So the current investment environment is index funds, ETFs invest in everything, it's useless to try to beat the market. I disagree, Warren Buffett from the 1980s, when he was still telling the truth, disagrees, so let's see if we can beat the market, and to beat the market, we have to avoid the biggest risk of the market. For me, the biggest risk of the market is that things over a decade, over 5-10 years change significantly, so if you have a dynamic view on what's going on, you will see much bigger risks and the key is to avoid them, let me explain. So if I look at the long-term yield on the Treasury, just 12 years ago it was 5%. So on 5%, the required return from stocks would not be 4.5% as it is now, but it would be 7-8%. So in case of a higher required return from stocks, the S&P 500 value would be much, much lower. For example, I have made a little table that shows the S&P 500 in the next 10 years. If year by year the required return from stocks or the price earnings ratio drops by one, so in 2029, let's say that the US Treasury will be back to 6%, 7%, and that the required return from stocks will be around 8%, 9% for a price earnings ratio of 12%. If earnings grow alongside the economy at 2% per year, in 2029 the situation will be that the S&P 500 will be at 1,931 points based on a price earnings ratio of 12%. This isn't a crash, I think this would be even worse than a stock market crash of 40% next year and then with a recovery. So this is the biggest risk and why would interest rates increase at all? Very simple because the US government has to borrow more and more to finance its budget deficit. So over 10 years things always change and this is the dynamic risk that I see hitting the stock market somewhere in the future and that's something I want to avoid. So how to do better? Well, I'll give you an example of two stocks, Procter and Gamble and Archer Daniels Midland that we haven't have already discussed on this channel. So we'll have two companies, similar companies, stable companies with completely different price earnings ratios and the difference in price earnings ratios will give you the long-term difference in returns. Let's start with P&G. So very famous company, we all use the products, very stable, everybody thinks it's a great company, great stock and it actually is. But it is part of the S&P 500, so the stock price is pushed very, very high as everybody's chasing such stocks. It is paying a dividend yield of 2.81% but the stock hasn't gone anywhere since 2007. If we look at the price earnings ratio, it is in line with the S&P 500 price earnings ratio 25-22 and this is the return you can expect from Procter and Gamble. As you can see on the revenues, they even declined over the last 10 years, earnings didn't go anywhere, there were ups and downs, but let's say stable over the cycles, currency influences, etc. So Procter and Gamble, we can expect 4-6% investment returns over the long term. Let me show you Archer Daniels Midland. This is a company that produces, processes food and the price earnings ratio is 12 forward, 14, the price to book value is 1.27. Okay, the dividend yield is a little bit higher but they are investing more as they are using their money to invest deeper. You can check the video on Archer Daniels here on the channel. So my message is very simple. In the long term, your investment returns are perfectly correlated with the returns the business delivers, the underlying business that the stock represents a part of it. And you have to invest in the business and when you invest in the business over the long term 10-20 years, I think that if you invest in those that have a price earnings ratio of below 15, your returns will be higher, will be around 7, 8, 9%. If you invest in those with 20, 25 and also stable growth, yes, as long as the stock market is happy with 4-5%, the stock price will increase as those companies grow, etc. But if over the next 10 years, dynamic thinking, something changes there and people expect 10%, 12% from the stock market, then you are in trouble. And this is the biggest stock market risk. It might turn out in a crash. It might happen suddenly. It might evolve over a long period of time of a decade. So the lower the valuation for a same business, similar business with similar risks, the better you are off. And this is what we do on this channel. We look for better investments with higher returns and lower or similar risks. So if you fancy that, please subscribe, check whatever I do. And thank you for watching and I'll see you in the next video. Also, don't forget to comment any ideas about such good businesses that have higher business yields with same risk. Please share them into the comment section. See you in the next video.