 All right, welcome everyone. We are streaming live. I want to thank BookMap for hosting this presentation We're going to talk about Bitcoin today and Specifically kind of having a longer term mandate With the micro structure so that when you're in the microstructure you've got a better sense of presence and of context of what's happening Before I get into it. I just want to go through this disclosure You know futures crypto forks trading contains substantial risk is not for every investor an investor could potentially is all Or more than the initial investment risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading past performance is Not necessarily indicative of future results This is such a true statement. Don't underestimate it It really messes up with your Head if you are trading under capitalized you make bad decisions. You're not clear You're not you're focused on fear over and Greed over what is truly happening? What we're going to go over today is purely educational. We're not recommending any buys or sells it's all here to Improve your bottom line give you some tools and insights to improve your trading I'm John Slazas from Dharma Capital Trading I've been involved in the markets for over 35 years. I started out on the floor of the mercantile exchange in The pits and found myself Continuing running outside the pits to look at the machines because my style is a little more longer term But it did give me great insight to the emotions of the market You know when you're trading inside the pit, you are part of the order book and Seeing that emotion live is It's you know really an edge that a lot of floor traders don't appreciate that they have but You know that's you know book map does a good job of you know providing some insights to Some of that emotion, you know much better than a traditional dome And so you know like there when they first came out and I started using them You know their logo was this you know guy blindfolded and you know, it's so true that you know if you're not using book map You're blind so I'm a big fan We just relaunched My analytics business under Dharma Capital Trading you can follow us on acts We got our YouTube channels is constantly growing We were on substack now, so this is a complimentary weekly outlook on Bitcoin And then if you wanted DM me in the discord channel book map discord channel, I can answer you know any questions You know before we get into the actual work I just want to do a quick overview of what you're looking at so that you know whenever you see any posts from us You get a better sense of what you're looking at and how it can help you everything that we're do is quantitative So this is all factual. We're not we don't do any technical analysis. I I started out in the business and technical analysis not a big fan anymore. It's just too subjective You know it you can use it at the very end of your analytics, but you need a statistical foundation And I think a lot of people lose sight of that and they focus too much on the subjective opinions Which gets them into trouble It's you can't get away from your cognitive bias without a Statistical fact check and you know it's too hard not to curve it things and see things how you want to see them so That's what we're all about fact-based trading We you know that involves making decisions based on objective data and analysis reducing speculation and subjective biases and We have the resources to provide that to you through our analytics to help you standardize your decision-making process We have applications and a web service, you know to normalize that data into your workflow and We have trader development programs that help to optimize your tactics You know basically you know if you're a trader you're going to succeed with your you know What works for you and you're unique and your path to success is unique And so you know, but then in how we can help you integrate analytics and Standardize that path and your method and our method is is straightforward. It's pretty it's basically the same thing every day It's you know wax on wax off, you know every day. We're looking at context, you know, what's the What's the environment? What's the market state? What are the and you know really understanding and defining those characteristics so that we we know in a market It's in a specific state. We're plugged in we know the nuances and that makes it easier for us to see if the market's Performing to expectation or not if it's not we need to adjust if it is we don't need to think we just need to Align ourselves with That state and that's the part of what we do is after we define the state We define the alignment and the structure points that define it meaning that where are those points with that state shifts? When do things change? You know, where are those inflection points and? From that we get an expectation, you know, it's really nift then You know of what is more likely to occur if we have a specific context with specific element Then this is more likely to happen And that's what we're always looking for when you're trading its probabilities You know you want to bet big when you have it when it the things are more likely to occur And if you're trading against what's more likely to occur one you need to understand it to you need to bet smaller if you bet at all and So, you know by doing this and having this kind of methodical approach, you know the results Adopting an objective viewpoint, you know, it's going to boost your confidence and consistency Improve your self-awareness while reducing stress and elevating performance You know, it's just a bunch of win-wins when you have a statistical baseline You have a fact check to really center you, you know when you when you have that doubt You know if you're trading you should know if you're trading you still clarity If you don't you need a fact check and that's going to help give you clarity And so we're going to use some of our tools To show you how we present this but all the concepts that we're going over here today Are all things that you need to you know, you need to have a new repertoire. You need to do this work We're here to help you do the work We've got some proprietary stuff that we've done and been doing so and supporting trades for over 35 years so we've got some good stuff and We're going to share that with you now And so You know just quickly, you know going through some of the things that we look at and on our fact-based structure You know, it's going to help you move from being Reactive to proactive, you know so you can proactively anticipate opportunity proactively manage your risk and We're going to we focus on the structures of the market and structures We focus on our price structure time frame structure and market structure And the common perception of price structure, you know, we're you know identifying, you know price action in the market You know, where are those ebbs and flows? You know, is the market building higher move highs higher move lows? Lower move highs lower move lows. Is it not building any trend? You know, is the market trending? This is good valuable Information, you know, this is a truth, you know, if the market is making a higher price low It's making a higher price low. That's a truth The problem comes is when you go beyond that you start you know drawing trend lines and adding Racial studies and and building on it. You start to interject some subjectivity into it You know, some people use the peak some people use where the most consolidation is You know, there's and then it also gets down to you know, what data source do you have? So it it gets a little it starts to get subjective really quick and clutters things up and you lose the value of price structure So keeping it simple focusing on Ebs and flows is the market building positive price structure negative price structure or is it not period? And so that's our perspective on price structure, you know If identifying the trending, you know higher highs higher lows lower highs lower lows price structure That's valid objective tool, especially on higher timeframes If incorporating technical analysis, it's going to reduce the ability by overlaying a subjectivity Which can curve fitted into your cognitive bias. That's where the problem comes in So the next structure we look at is timeframe structure and this is you know Defining the parameters of the trade period and this is you know What fund managers uses a benchmark simple as you know, what's the previous high low last and midpoint of a defined trade period? That's in and on the trade periods, you know, you can break that down into yearly quarterly monthly weekly and even daily You know, I think for fund managers, they're really tied into the monthly Structure but understanding are we up for the month down for the month? We above yesterday's high below yesterday's low below the midpoint, you know These are all great facts that you want to be aware of and it's going to give you insight to what's happening in the moment You know, and what we do is you know, we just break them down into acronyms And then you know, we're going to put those on the chart just to get a better sense of hey Here's here. We are Where are we within this, you know previous timeframe structure of the market? And it and it becomes a very valuable tool So what's market structure our last thing that we're going to you know get into you know Market structure defines the alignment of the state condition, you know, so are we trending? Or a non-trend or trending, you know, what are the parameters that define that condition? You know, that's that's what market structure is, you know price structure higher highs higher lows Lower highs lower lows not trending, you know And then the market structure is defining. Okay, we are in this state We're in a neutral digestive state and here are those parameters of that state, you know What what's what's the hard structure and where does that structure change? You know, so market structure is not support resistance Market structure is the technical alignment of the market state and so This is our proprietary work our price map and that's our structure analysis and this is what we use to define the states and structures and you know, where Where the alignment is where the shifts in states will occur and how we can standardize our tactics to the that structure And so we're using what we call a critical range Which is defined by upside pivot downside pivot So a red line and a blue line and the midpoint is yellow So that's kind of a rotational number within that zone and then a sentiment bias Which is basically over under number for the day and the sentiment bias is the is the big number for any trade period That's that's where the bias is that's where the liquidity is and that's and so that's always going to give it insight to what the foundations of the market state are and So the critical range is going to find the parameters if the market's going to hold structure Or if it's going to violate those parameters and break structure and change the state condition and The sentiment is going to tell us What's the what's the bias of this condition? you know You know, but Bitcoin today is in a bull trend, but sentiments above the market. So it's it's leaning negative and So we're going to go through Bitcoin today based on the weekly and we're going to identify, you know sentiment from the start of the week We're going to identify the critical range and then we're going to Talk a little bit more about, you know, the other validation levels that help give us insight to the movement within the critical range and any potential targets and so as I mentioned at the start, you know, we are we have our New service on substack that you're all welcome to sign up for and this is published On Sunday evening. Let me just get this back set up here Because this is the start of the week so we can get a better sense of What we have going on here? We trade a lot of crypto options. That's what my primary style is What I'm doing Everyone's got their own style but we're just I'm going to go through our weekly outlook so you can come into the Sign up for the substack and you'll get access to there you know historical and you'll get access to the weekly outlook and You know just kind of breaking this down for you of what we're offering So, you know, you have a better sense now of The tools that we have let me clean this chart up just so You can show you what we look like From the get-go and you can get a clean sense of what's happening So I just want to show you that you know we're identifying the previous week high previous week low You know, here's the previous week close and the previous week midpoint and so You know, I know this is you know book map is a is a microstructure tool and What we have is a macro structure tool and so you need both so you can't go into the microstructure without a mandate without a plan You need to know you need to have a bigger picture view Because otherwise you're just going to get run over and then the idea is that once you understand the context of the bigger picture you want to see that being validated in the microstructure and That and that's you know them and then that's what the decisions are made You know, that's where you know you establish things but after you after you establish a position You know the markets either go on your way or not your dance around your size and then when it makes a move You know you're getting squeezed getting back in and you know and then are you in the move or not? You know and then if you are you take them you back out of the microstructure and let the trade play out And then when it comes into an alignment again, okay now you dial back in how's it going to behave off this structure point and so If we're looking at Price structure You know we had this big you had this positive trending market. It's you know, it's working higher This is a really nice looking positive momentum and then you have a big capitulation and boom you break structure So this is a pretty violent breaking structure and that's and typically you know after you get a move like this The market's going to you know take a step back You know, it's rarely is it going to go and and immediately just continue on its way and Move higher. It's you know, you're going to get some kind of you know, corrective sideways action So we had the violent break. We retrace a little bit now. We sold off You know basically we're starting to you know see this kind of lackluster movement happening And that's typical of you know a price action break It needs to take a little time before it's going to build up some energy to do something next So so what's it going to do next and what do we talk about? So with us coming in here on Sunday evening You know, we're basically go with the flow, you know, the markets had this it was has been this positive move What's you What's next? Are we going to continue this correction at corrective action? Are we going to have another you know impulse down or we're going to go try to challenge the previous week's low You know, we're below the close so at minimum we're probably going to go test the previous week's mid-point We're going to test the previous week's high and so go with the flow It starts meeting you know based off the net change for negative. We're leaning negative That's what the way we're going positive really in positive. We're going to expect a retest of the high You know the next thing we do is we're really identifying, you know, what are the what's the focus and the focus this week Is was on the 37,000 strike, you know and using this as a momentum guide for the market's next move so let's throw up the sentiment bias and For the next move we know that liquidity is down here so we know that okay the start of the week Okay, the real buying energy is way below the market here at 32,000 470 457 Okay You know, so this is all lining up at, you know, 37 1,000 which is basically just below the previous week's close So we're in a bull trend state. So let's put the critical range on and one of the reasons we like the 37,000 strike is it's it's in alignment with the weekly directional at 36,000 767 and this is what we call our metric boundary So this is that kind of the area of influence around this this inflection point And so Basically, we're key enough to strike above, you know, that's the bias the bull trend You know, it's going to remain engaged above here So if this positive momentum is going to pick up the market's going to stabilize above this area And it should start to build positive price structure higher move highs higher move lows and If we get a failure Basically below the previous week's midpoint, which is around 36,300 You know, that's going to validate a break in structure So that's going to tell us that you know what this underlying positive momentum There's a problem with it and we're and we're more likely into you know, this thing's going to correct And and so we get below the directional. It's negative. We trade below. This is another momentum level It's negative. Where can it go? It's going to want to go here. That's our expectation It at least come down to test these areas here previous week low and what we call our downside pivot and so This is just telling us that we're no longer going to have an expectation to perform like a bull trend We're going to we're going to shift into more of a corrective hedge theme So we're still positive trend, but it's more of that the corrective part of a positive trend And that's really more of a hedge thing and then we are identifying that you know at this point You know this 38,000 level is going to contain and level for any new extension higher All right, so so then we then we're going through and it's that it's we're going to add our validation levels here And this is telling us okay. Well If we could start basing Above this price That's going to be the tell that this market is ready to resume this possible momentum So we're going to you know kind of looking at this this range here Where the market really needs to get above here if so we'd anticipate it's going to take up last week's high And it's going to make a play for these targets When we get to these levels, we're saying respect the structure But let price action to find the truth of strength at these levels, you know Is this is this really true? Are we really going to extend and the market's going to tell us in the microstructure as it approaches these price points and Can that be you know spark a move up to this 46 40,000 640 level which is a higher time frame level. I believe that's the That's the monthly UT one Comes up into here, so always always looking for alignment of different you know higher and lower time frames Okay, so you know so basically we're coming through here's what's happening Here's the state condition and then Identifying okay, what's what's the you know, we're above the directional So we're going to talk about the upside first Because that's where the price is currently and now it's going to happen if we break structure Well, if we if we trade below this directional then the market's vulnerable to a corrective dip down to 35,947 CR minus so we would expect a test of this area So this is the kind of the validation zone for a bigger move and that would be the first initial test You know and this is going to be the base for a new digestive action So if the market's going to continue to kind of go sideways like this, you know We could see a digestive action within this range You know expect to bounce but don't fight weakness below here as it validates a corrective hedge theme So we know that once we trade below here were corrective hedge theme Which means we're vulnerable to a breakdown here and this is the point that's going to say yes We're going to make a we're going to follow through on that corrective hedge theme or no or not And so that's we're just identifying that and pointing that out And if we if we can if we do validate below there, then we're looking for at least to move down to The downside pivot 35 128, but it's got the potential to go as low as this The DT1 and this they are weekly our level we get into Some options analysis. I'm not going to spend too much time on that right now. We'll come back Next week, but we do we do follow funding rates and and implied volatility and the and the skew and Then we use those microstructure terms in volatility to give us more insight into what's more likely to occur basis the options market and Basically, you know, if the market You know funding rates are expensive. So that means you know when you see those moves in crypto and The market, you know, it really high and you just get these breaks on the lower a lot of times It just comes down to what the funding rates are and how they're so skewed out of out of proportion It's just too expensive for people to come in and buy it and also they're more people are too squeezed You know get get squeezed on these moves but basically the What what the options microstructures telling us is that we do get a rally, you know Yeah, prices are going to go higher, but we're going to see Val rates come down a little bit. We're not going to see that expansion of volatility that we saw So let's let's go through the week and let's get up to where we are today and let's see what happens And so, you know, basically at this point the market is Holding above this directional point, which tells us that this bull trend is solid because we know that as long as we're above here It's solid market's working higher. I'm gonna blow this up for a moment so this is where you know, even if we're just looking at our time frame structure and We're using the previous week's clothes as a barometer, you know, this is good insight that okay We're not change positive. No, we're not we're you know, we're kind of rotating around. Okay, we're not change positive We're going to go test We're going to go test the previous week's high point and then we can't do it You know, and then we start to break this price structure here And so then if we add our market structure here, this gives us more insight to okay now we're retesting the week low but We get a failure here, which tells us that you know, even at this point here when the market breaks price structure It's not performing like a bull trend. And so this is what I'm talking about with context So if we understand the context, it's not performing like a bull trend Now we're getting a break in price structure because it's not it's it's not making higher lows So at this the mark and it's and it's below the previous week's clothes So it's all about when do we get clarity and what the market wants to do and the market's given us tells Can't hold above the previous week's clothes. Now. We're breaking price structure Can't hold build positive high of highs high of lows and then here we're great. We break market structure And we're breaking below the directional here We validate that break and then we got trade below the previous monthly midpoint So the markets told us it wants to go lower Now, you know, they don't always they're not linear and this is classic where the market gives us a signal that tells us Yeah, we're going lower and it can squeeze. I mean this thing could squeeze back up to the previous week's clothes It's nice when you see price structure alignment with market structure But this is a classic move this week where the market retraced After it gave us the negative signal it retraced back up to the figure And gave us an opportunity to get in the market for Participate in the hedge team. So at this, you know, it absolutely at this point There's no doubt you've got clarity that this thing wants to go lower, you know, when do you get clarity? Are you getting clarity here? Are you getting clarity here when it can't maintain a trade above this metric boundary? You know, are you getting clarity here? And you know, and you're you're selling into this you're selling to this You know where your stops are there above here You know, when do you get clarity at this point? It's no doubt the market's telling wants to go lower and when we and when we go through the Commentaries, you know, where is it? Does it want to go wants to go here? Let me put the validation points back up there and this was also a tell as well where If the market was going to digest in a digestive trade, it shouldn't trade below this boundary And the fact that it does is a sign of weakness. So it just gives us more insight into selling into this and And this is where this is where we use the you know, the microstructure to get back on this and we'll go real time In a moment here because I don't have that data to show you how the microstructure structure was working there But it again, it's always when do you know, when do you get clarity and so You know, we were anticipating the market to move into this area and you can see how you know, it came, you know, it held it held the previous week's low and You know, why is you know, why is that important? Well, we can't you know, the markets in a bull trend So just by definition of a bull trend it makes higher lows so for the market to Continue to you know, hold this positive structure it needed to do this and it did and Then it produced what we call a reversal signal So it went below the critical range downside pivot and came back of it. So this is a this is a positive signal here So the market told you that here You know, we know the state's positive trend and the market tells you here that it's built in a higher low now it's giving us a Reversal signal where it went below the critical range downside pivot and came back above it and Held and held structure. So this is a positive signal So the market this is your risk below here and you could even risk below here Your expectations that we're at least going to come back to the directional and that would just be that would be a Move with the expectation that the market is going to just still continue to go sideways a little bit Okay, so now Now we're real-time. So what does the market done? You know, basically we're still in containment of last week's range, right? So here's the previous week's high Tested the previous week's low Now we're challenging the now we're back up to the previous week's close So the market is all if markets dialed into net change For the week Okay You can see also how this the previous week's midpoint worked as a momentum level. Let me just take everything off again Just so you can This is so underrated and such a powerful thing People don't use It's just identifying this time frame structure or understanding that you know, how's it? You know, this is this is what the fund manager is looking at You know, they're actually looking at even higher time frames of what's happening on a monthly basis But That's a different presentation So, you know, this is basically the previous week's midpoint which acts as a good momentum level Hey, you know above here, we're gonna try to make a play for the previous week's high below here We'll make try to make a play for the previous week's low And you can see how it you know acts like as a as a pivotal point in a momentum area And it really came in in alignment here and and this is where When we're at these points is when we really dial into the microstructure and actually we probably have Let's take a look don't have that history For this initial move But we can see on this move how we get a really big intensity of trade wrote, you know You know one if we're just looking at the price structure And we're just looking we're looking at price if we just isolate this week And we made a peak here and we're building negative price structure here The market hasn't made a new move low yet So this this is still the key number and then here we make a new low And we make a high here and then we make a new low here So this this becomes this is the high before The big drop right so this is this is a key inflection point, right? So at this point if the market is really bad and you had this big violent after you had that break here You had a little bit of pull back there, but basically just went straight down So this is the second price structure breaking point So as long as the market was below here amble and in alignment with the previous weekly midpoint We're still negative We're not anymore So let's put the the price map back on here But you can see and and this is a great tool to have on your book map is the VWOP And I like to look at this. I'll I like to use this a lot But just super simple stuff, you know, here's the previous week's midpoint and this is the cloud notes And and you can you know, you can enter these in and we have an application that plots them on your heat map But you've got it's real clear here you're getting this intensity of trade you've got buyers coming in That that pushes up through here. We're coming into the lower metric boundary of the directional So it's it's getting that liquidity is getting gobbled up because it this is a big metric boundary But we're above the VWOP and we've just transitioned above the previous week's midpoint and and we've also broken price structure and So if we just look at this momentum that we have here basis the week, you know, we know we're in a bull trend We knew the liquidity is down here at the market tried to make a play for it. It couldn't It's stabilized above the previous week's low Gave us a reversal signal bought by reversal signal here We validated that here took out the previous week's midpoint here, which is another positive signal stabilized off the The the minor critical range negative number this zone, which is just classic climb in the ladder You know just which is exactly what it does. You know makes a push and pulls back So this stabilization is positive then after then when you get back above here It's it's validating and here you've got clarity the market is you know, the market is telling us it broke structure here this market this corrective actions over and And You know if we see if we can't trade above you know below this weekly midpoint You know this thing's really positive We get below this weekly midpoint and trade under here the expectation would be for it one those terrible sideways trades probably for the rest of the week but we didn't do that and So now we're having a bit of an event in Bitcoin. So where are we at? So we got You know, there's a lot happening here and we have a lot of intensity of trade. I'm gonna blow this up a little bit So we're looking at the weekly structure and I might flip into the daily structure just to you know Get a sense of what's happening there as well. All right, so I'm gonna throw the Daily our level on here. So it's always good to look at the different alignment points and To have and I'm gonna put the metric boundaries up here, too So 36,000 503 is the upside pivot for on the daily and it's also the sentiment bias So this is the over-under number. So the the daily structure was a little different than The weekly But it gave us really good insight here at this moment Because the day started here and just throw something up here So Bitcoin on the daily is also this is our playbook and it was also on a bull trend and but sentiment was above the market at the upside pivot at 36,000 503 and You know, basically that was just telling us. Hey, you know Bitcoins in a corrective state below this price point and if we get above that price point, you know That's when the bull trend can re-engage And so that's what happened here because this was the daily critical range I'm just doing this to show you, you know, kind of, you know, how the alignment came into play So like on basis the daily and how, you know, how the lower time frame can give you insight to this move as well is Basis the daily the market. We know it's in a bull trend. It's corrective It's below the directional and this is the beauty of the structure as well as it translates into, you know any time frame any market and when it Transitioned above the directional it told you that hey, we're gonna make a play for this level And if the mark was really going to continue to correct it should have just correct it It should have just really hit everybody and stayed below this price point. It didn't so this is a tell of strength and Then and then we see all this all this different alignment coming in here at price structure at Mark at time frame structure at the daily sentiment bias and the lower metric boundary of the directional so right now We had You know, we had a lot of intensity of trade coming in here. Let me move this over To really validate this transition So this is this is a good truth that the market had that all this liquidity Building up. This is just a classic squeeze back down to let me go into a sort of time frame here So we can see it on book map where we You know, we have this, you know, big intensity of trade We're charging through we're validating this turn, you know, this is you know We can see it in the order book that we got a lot of buyers come in here This is significant significant shift in momentum and we take out the previous week's close So the market says hey, we're going higher You know this pullback in intensity of trade sets up this This is just a classic squeeze again, you know, just keeping it simple. Where's the VWAP? And when you get the VWAP that's in alignment with structure So the view up's coming in right here at our structure point And when you see stuff like this happens, it just gives you confidence in You know that the structure the markets aligned And so it gives us confidence in where can it go And what's the expectation? So the expectation is yeah expectation is let's make a play for the previous week's high If not and more likely the upside pivot So the first stop is going to be here And so when we see this look like this liquidity building up in front of this figure You see you see how this just powered right, you know, this this we're getting the signal here And so we are we had the signal lower and it's being validated Now we have a pullback Okay, so now we're in the microstructure now we're getting some buying and we're getting the buying that's going to come into some structure Let me back out on this so that We want to see the we want to see that into that intensity of trade building up through the figure You know above here So what can happen is when you get buying in front of a figure It can be it can just be a tell that hey and then it backs off when we don't get the same intensity of trading It doesn't power right through it. It's you know, it can set up a potential pullback. And so for us We're buying breaks You know all day long we're buying breaks right now off of 36,005 with three You know basically this you know this whole this lower metric boundary here this whole area and with the VWAP here And we can see this liquidity built up here underneath that level as well This is our pullback and you know if the market's really true and the bull trend is really going to engage It's going to hold this VWAP and it's going to build higher lows But that doesn't mean we can't get a push into this area and then have a pullback down to here first So the fact that we're in the middle is not it tells us that we want to be careful and we don't we're not interested in executing When the market's not in alignment So going back to the you know the longer term outlook if we're you know, we're above Directional and we're in a bull trend, you know, we're positive You know is this was this all the corrective action that we're going to get is it over is it done? Well, the tell right now is going to be is this market going to be able to hold structure You know, we had we had a pullback here from 37 200 down to 36,900 and maybe another three so you know basically, you know get at least a minor swing having to come back down into this area here and Looking for some liquidity to kind of shift up And support it you're right now It's still supporting it off basically that the directional area and the VWAP but the key right now right now We're just leaving it alone bottom line the markets told us that we've shifted And we've and we're in the markets looking to reengage the bull trend So we're you know, we're going to look for situations like this Where we're getting Liquid, you know aggressive sellers that come into structure. So this is kind of classic opportunity right here Where you get these panics people are panicking into structure. So these are like these are great setups And this this also goes back to context, right? So how do bull trends correct? Well, they have these vicious breaks, right? And so when you have this, you know, these people the markets panicking like this and Really getting aggressive on this selling but you're selling into structure And then when you have a bigger context mandate when you know that hey, you know markets bull trend market broke price structure It broke time frame structure and it's breaking market structure You have all these things that are an alignment and you're above the daily VWAP That gives us, you know high confidence and What the longer term structure gives us is where can it go? And the longer term structure tells us well, at least we're gonna we're gonna make a play for this area here But more likely we're gonna take out the previous week's high and make a play for you know, 38,000 688 Why? Because we made a higher move Low off the previous week's low and we haven't had it. We haven't really had a good challenge to the previous week's high And since we are in a bull trend it would make sense even if we take it out by a point To you know to at least make a play here and take it out by a little bit before it before it really pulls, you know exhaust So this is this is also a good example of how powerful reversal signals are and so anytime So basically having a reversal signal here that's in alignment with sentiment Because if you you know if you think about context we're positive trend We know the big liquidity is here But we also know this is a previous week's low if this week's gonna maintain positive and get back on the bull trend It should stabilize here it does and then if it's holding positive positive price structure That's all good. And then you have this kind of an on acceleration of that Well, this what the expectation now is that this should really continue this Create this steep acceleration should just continue and if it doesn't it tells you it's over It tells you we're you know if we have a pullback We might have to do some work around that pullback before we can build up some new energy to just go because the market's You're gonna try to take money away from people that are buying it here and they're gonna you know They're gonna you know come down press it move higher than make a new little low press it higher Get them sucked in press them back down and then they're gonna go But but you know so it's more like a seismograph now off these areas And so then we can look for situations like this in the order book when on those pullbacks, especially like, you know taking out A level here that the view up gets above here and then we start training here We get some big sellers, but we're coming right into structure, but it this market should just It really shouldn't have any pullbacks greater than You're definitely not greater than this amount. So what for? 450 Do it 750 so 650 $700 pullback That would be we shouldn't have any more any pullbacks greater than that So we're still in the middle. We're you know basically looking for another situation like this to jump on or we're You know, we we're gonna wait for the market to trade back above 37900 and price qualify above this structure, you know So let's say we did get a test of the previous week high and we get a rejection there We would anticipate some basing here off of the 37600 that would be that kind of the pullback that we'd want to look to engage in It's all about size management, too So, you know if if this break if we had a break all the way down here, this would be our max size This is our next max size off the critical range and then this wasn't this is an opportunity here as a pullback And the market should just base and just keep going. It's hard to jump on the train. I'm not that's not my style If you know if you put problem is with trading too short term is if you put if you know if you're trading you get caught in This situations You just can't get out and this is just too expensive to take take a little little little wins little wins little wins little wins Little wins. Bam. Just give it all away Doesn't make any sense to me so I Want to catch bigger moves. I know that and I want to take trades When I have clarity and so the market is clear now that it's transition back positive And I know that my sweet spots here, and I'm just going to you know, and if I You know if I'm not involved, I'm just going to be patient. Wait. I've got clarity what the market wants to do Maybe it's going to give me an opportunity If you do jump on a train like this You just you know, you're just you're jumping on the momentum train and just use price structure and the brakes price structure get out The problem is is this the liquidity in the slippage that can really kill you But you know what where can this market go? Well, the expectation is it's going to take out the previous week's high So it's always like what's the reward as long as you're going to hold on to it for that or a move to the upside pivot You know, it's all good and you and you could anticipate a break out above here Is you're not getting this this whole move does not get comfortable unless we trade up of 37 thousand nine hundred Because that's what we call our validation plane I'm going to discount the previous week's high as a valid price level just because we're in a bull trend I'm expecting it to take it out to make higher move highs and I would My expectation would be that it's more likely the market's going to make a play for thirty thousand six eighty eight So that's your target. That's your story. You're sticking to it as a minimum target And you know, maybe we're not going to get that today, but maybe tomorrow But you know and this is this is all structured. It's all good for tomorrow. It's all good This is this is the weekly structure says this structure is going to hold all week So basically as long as we're above thirty six thousand four hundred You know that basically that price structure turning point previous week's midpoint the lower directional metric boundary, you know, this is you know This is where you have a lot of different alignment that's coming into play And as we saw earlier especially for today It's the daily Sentiment bias level as well. So that's that's the sweet spot for any sharp corrective move otherwise, we are waiting for this market to Trade above here and more likely we're gonna have to wait till Till the new period This is this is why I love book map for is You give me clarity that the market really wants to go higher here really validating things Setting up, you know squeezes, you know, I want to buy it here You know, I the markets already told me it wants to go higher I'm wanting to buy a pullback and and it gives me this, you know More insight that this is people are you know panicking into alignment with the view up and market structure After we have this transition, you know, this is kind of a classic classic setup And I and by entering here what my risk is really to find I'm putting myself in I can risk one to make five. You know, I'm risking What coming in here? 36 800 and I can you know risk under 36 500 So I can you know risk $300 and I'm looking to make over two grand So I hope that was insightful again come visit us at the substack link and Get a hold of our weekly outlook and get it for next next Sunday. So you're prepared for next week You know our method is, you know Based on solid truths. I mean if you haven't read No, well prize winner Daniel Kahneman's book thinking fast and slow, you know, he really validates our method You know the outside view offers more accurate predictions in the inside view and what he's you know really talking about is that you know You're subjective your intuitive bias is great and and you know, typically everyone lives their life making intuitive decisions And most of the time they're right, but in trading a lot of times that can be You know your cognitive biases you can get anchored on on things that you don't even know you're anchored on You know, you read something and just have this little, you know Someone says hey, I'm positive or I'm negative or you read something to that effect You know, it's going to anchor you a little bit. Even if it's just a hesitation and so in crypto The hesitation is just too long, you know, it really messes you up. So, you know having a statistical baseline And focusing on what the facts are, you know, you remove that that cognitive bias And so that's what our method does, you know by incorporating a statistical outside view It helps to slow down the decision-making process and minimize these biases and that that's what we do and that that's why we're here And that's how we're here to help you to provide you that statistical foundation So, you know, we're all about trading with clarity. You can come to our website Dharma capital dot trade learn more about what we do Again, you know, follow us on X. We're posting every day the YouTube channel is building out with more good insights Substack link that I mentioned and if you want to contact me directly you can get a Demi in the Discord the book map channel there or you know send an email to info at Dharma capital dot trade Well, thank you for your time today. I hope that was enjoyable you like us and Turn people on to us if you think that you think would be interested in this and I will be here next week and Going over more insights and yeah, please feel free to drop notes in the discord of things that you thought were interesting Or you'd like to see more of I enjoy your day. Cheers