 for analyzing this sector. Sign up today on TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Now, Larry Pesavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray, feeling good, Louis. Continuing on from our discussion yesterday, this was the chart of the E-mini S&P, the June contract. And as you can see, that we were looking for a high to come in today, right around 43.92. The high was 43.94, so we missed that one. But we were also looking at the September E-mini S&P. And I want to get that up because, holy moly, something's wrong with my charts again. Oh, I know what it is. Shut the front door. I'll get that fixed in our heartbeat. Aha, very easy. Okay, there was the E-mini in the September. That came in at 43, excuse me, 44.38. And we sold it there. And now we put our stop at break-even. That's only down a few points from that area. And probably, given the fact when the Fed comes in, these stops will probably be taken out either by a lot or a little. And then we'll see what happens. But at that point, we want to be as risk-free as we possibly can going into a Fed report. Now, we had two trades today that were both stopped out that looked, gee, they were just absolutely perfect garlies. The first one here was the British pound. We ended up losing $250. Hold on just a second, cowboy. There we go. We lost $250 in the British pound. And we also took a loss in the Euro because it also went higher. We took another $250 loss in the Euro. And so actually, it was $300 in the Euro. So that's a $550 starting out the day. But the day wasn't a total loss because we were able to buy the soybeans, making a 3-8-2 retracement like we've been talking about for five or six days in here. And then also in the corn, both of those have been really big winners so far today. And so that makes up with anything. And you have losses. I'm not worried about that. I'm just trying to show you the patterns as they pop up so that we see them when they occur. Our guest today will be the king of the hill, folks. We've got Mr. Stan Harley will be coming up as our guest. And he's going to be talking about some of these cool-looking cycles that he's been talking about for some time. But I have to show you this one, folks. This happens to be the Christmas corn. That's a December corn. We made some pretty good money in that. Didn't get out. And we got out way too soon. Of course, we're able to buy it back today. And it's added another $0.15. What we've done now, you see, both in the soybeans and in the corn and in the S&P, we moved our stop to break even. And the reason for that is, folks, it's a game of not losing very much money. So take care of your losses and the profits. Take care of themselves. If it gets back down there, it probably isn't any good. That's all we know. Whether this thing will work in the stock market or not, I have no clue. It's just a pattern. And when I do the newsletter, I work with John Jamison. John Jamison and I have a matching IQ of 140. The difference is, for me to get to 140, I had to take the test three times. John is just a really brilliant guy. He's a forward thinker. He was involved on the internet when it first started back in the 80s. He's been involved with cryptos since they started. And he's just a forward thinker. And he's been helping me with, helping me. He's been doing the newsletter for me for four years. I've known John for 20 years. I knew he was smart all along, but I didn't realize how smart he really was until about, well, he came here about five, four years ago and spent three and a half weeks with me. And day and night, he actually stayed here at the house. And it was really an experience to listen to all the things that he's done because he's retired at 32 and he's in his fifties now. So anyway, that's neither here nor there. But what I do is I look at patterns, folks. I had a real breakthrough. When I worked at Drexel Burnham during those years from 76 through 82, all I did was ABCD patterns. That's really all I knew. And that's all I did. I had some soybean guys, Oscar McClure, Dave Nelson, Jim Sibbot, Earl Hattity, helping me along with some of the fundamentals ideas. But my whole premise was just looking at what the charts were going to do. I never wavered from that. Every time I did waver from it, I ended up, you know, putting it in my head between my legs and, you know, somebody say, kiss your rear end, goodbye, because it just never worked. Now, I talked about the article that's in Barons this week with the headline of the Barons. I'll bring it up here to show you that this bull has legs. And, folks, I've been watching Barons for 60 years. And I just don't have a great deal. I think these guys are really smart that do these things. And they have great writers and stuff, but they're, you know, they're involved in the emotionalism of these markets. And my guys, if you watch what's going on with CNBC and also with the Bloomberg, my gosh, it's almost like politics. They're so involved with artificial intelligence, as they should be. But for heaven's sakes, there's other things in the world besides that. Now, I'm looking at, I hope Stan will cover this. This was sent to me by one of our listeners that follows a couple of cycle guys, and I wanted to get this up here. I guess it's from Twitter or something like that. I'm not sure. But he sent it to me. I wanted to show you because Stan's work is far more superior to something just as simple as this. But look at these eight-week cycles. I mean, my goodness, they've been, you know, really pretty good. And we're bouncing up against one right as we looking. All I'm looking at, folks, is when I put a trade on, you know, I'm not looking at a 10-day pattern or anything in the S&P. Yeah, maybe you get lucky. You get a 10-day pattern. But if I can find a nice ABCD pattern that I can trade, that's all I'm going to do. You know, that's my gig. I don't care if it goes to $4,800. Might go to $4,800 today. That's not what I do. I do one thing. And you remember what Curly said, you know, do one thing and try to do it well. And that's what I really try to do. If you remember, when we started this week, we said to be really, really aware of what's going on in the old Mukaus, because the cattle market has made a major turn down, folks. And as you can see from this pattern, it's only a 20-minute pattern, but it covers from where we were. Last Friday, you can see there's the perfect ABCD right up there in 174, and it's already dropped below the page here. It's already up $1,300 for a $400 risk. It's up $1,300. So that's what we're watching. Now, if we get stopped out of the SAP, not a problem, because what I'm going to be doing is I'm going to fall back on page 222 in Gartley's book, and that's what I'm going to be watching for is this ABCD pattern. I'm going to sell that first ABCD, and wherever that is, then I'll put my stop, you know, within my risk parameter there, and that's what we're going to take a break here. Stan Harley's our guest at The Break, folks. We'll be right back. We have exciting news, Tigers. This June, Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle will be hosting two webinars providing insight into his renowned market timing methodologies. On June 8th, Tim will delve into the S&P 500, teaching sentiment indicators, identifying market bottoms and divergence, and so much more. On June 15th, Tim pivots to the gold market, taking a look at cycle analysis, ratio studies, advanced decline indicators, and other important tools for analyzing this sector. Sign up today on TFNN.com, TFNN, educating investors. 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For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Over 30 years, a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today, and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Folks, we're back and I brought a chart up here. This is the S&P over the last seven months. It shows the three ABCD patterns that are there. The main thing is here, if you remember, a week ago Friday, we were sitting right there at the 431 level, and it looked like it was going to be the absolute dead ringer top in the S&P, being at the exact 61% retracement. And then Sunday night, it opened higher and continued to go up. But if you look at all the ABCDs here, we're within a really, really small tolerance of all three of them being completed now. Whether they get completed or not, I don't know. What I do is I look at those, and then I go down to my smaller timeframes. And if I see a chart on a smaller timeframe, like I was looking at here in the September here at 434-38, it tells me that I don't have to risk very much at that point. And may or may not be a high. I don't really care about that. I just want to know how much I'm going to risk going in. In fact, when you're in Fed Day, everybody gets so emotional about this, and they're all expecting the Fed is just going to wave their hand and say, okay, we surrender. No more interest rate increases. Be careful, folks, because they don't always do what they say they're going to do. So those are just a few of the things that are on my mind today. As I look at, it's all about the risk control, folks. I don't mind losing two trade. This is the first time we've lost two trades in a row for the 24-7 in quite a while. They were very small losses, but they were offset by some nice profits. And so, but that's, that's what the game's all about. It's not, you know, it's not what happened yesterday. It's what's going to happen tomorrow. You got to forget what happened yesterday. The one, the one chart, the two charts that people will ask me, what am I really looking at? What am I really thinking? Here's what I'm really thinking. And I believe I've been doing this a long time, so it's not, I think about it a lot. Okay, here's where we were. All right, look, this is where we were. You see this, these seven or eight stocks that we talk about, Tesla, Amazon, Apple, the Nvidia, Tesla, Google, all of those stocks, Microsoft, Meta, all of these seven stocks, that's seven stocks out of the S&P of 493 other stocks. Okay, this is the, this is the market. You can see that these are the market, those stocks have been running the market. Back when I started doing this, this is when I was a kid, the Dow Jones had a thing called the Nifty 50. It wasn't the Dow Jones, it was the S&P, but they had the Nifty 50 in the S&P. There were 50 stocks back then, you know, Polaroid, 3M, let's see, Polaroid, 3M, IBM, digital equipment, a whole bunch of those stocks like that. Some of them are not even in business anymore. And but anyway, that's what that's all about. And when you, when I watch the news each morning, when I get up at four o'clock in the morning, and I, and I see the emotionalism of these reporters and stuff, I mean, my guys, some of them are so, they're giddish, almost like they were during the dot com era, not quite. That dot com era, I'll never see another era like that in my lifetime. You folks probably will. It might be next week. I don't know. But anyway, that's all I'm looking at. Then when I saw that picture of the economist or the, the Barron's picture and Boyle, that to me is my colleague's professor that started me looking at that. He felt that the only, you know, use for the Barron's and all the Wall Street Journal was for the lining of his Oscar, which was his parrot that he kept all the time. So anyway, that, that's what I'm looking at here. I'm looking at risk control. I, I, you know, people ask me, why are you doing here? Can't you follow the trend? Folks, I follow the patterns. I don't care about the trend. I should. You know, probably I'm 100% sure because why couldn't I buy and just watch it go up all the time. I look at patterns. If I see an ABCD, that's what I, that's what I live and die by. Remember yesterday, we were talking about the Canadian dollar. Look at this Canadian dollar. And we were saying that the triple bottom is failing. It was very, very easy to see that the market just kept going lower. It didn't stop going lower. You see, and it's still going lower today. So that is no longer a triple bottom. You see, and then that's, that's what you have to do. Look at the ABCD on the upside. It's absolutely perfect. Look, and this is in a downtrend. Okay. So you tell me what the trend is right here. The trend is up, but you look at it from here. The trend is down. All I'm looking at are patterns that'll give me an edge. And that's all I'm looking for. Count the number of bars up in the A and B leg. Count the number of bars up in the CD leg and to give you a nice edge. And then when you start down, that's it. Somebody says, why don't you enter on a valid trend line? Folks, I know that valid trend lines work because I used them for years. But these numbers that I look at up in here, to me, they're accurate enough that I can, I don't have to wait for a trend line to turn. I have an idea that this is where it's supposed to turn. That's all. It's not a, it's not a big deal. It really isn't. Now, we have Stan Harley coming up who, you know, he's a research specialist in cycles for the stock market. And I'm sure he's going to give us some really cool looking things to work with. Now, the second thing that I talked about getting back to that same patterns of the S&P of these, the seven stocks that have been running the E-mini. If you look at this, and just, and this was done by somebody on the internet, it was kind enough to send it to me. But this is basically what those seven stocks have done versus the rest of the market. You can see, and you can see there's drive one here, there's drive two here, and there's drive three here. And it's up in this area right here. This is a week old. So it's, some of them have gone higher. Some of them have gone a little bit lower, but the apple stuck at 185, probably on its way to 288 or whatever it's going to go to. Anyway, that's what we're watching here, that that could possibly end. I'm trying to get a lead on it. Now, boy, there's that boy again. You can take the boy out of the farm, but you can't take the farm out of the boy. Anyway, the main thing is, is that what I'm looking here is if this happens to be it, and this is a key day, and that pattern is correct, then that's fine. If the pattern is not correct, I'll go back to game plan two, and I'll wait for my next entry. That's all I look for, folks. I don't try to keep it, you know, I keep it as absolutely as simple as possible. That's what I'm doing. I'm answering as many of these questions as I can because I know you people have questions about this stuff. And that's it. Here is the stock of Tesla. We were talking about this yesterday. It was up 13 days in a row. Of course, today's the 14th day, and now Tesla is down a little bit. You can see that the ABCD price swing on this measured up into this box right here. The bottom of the box was 162, 262. Whatever that is, is that a two or one? That's a 262. It's a 262 handle up in here, and so that completed the ABCD pattern, just like this Gartley right there. There's a beautiful Gartley pattern, ABCD. And look at that, 13 days in a row, straight up. So that's what you're trying to find. Stay tuned, folks. We've got Stan Harley coming up, 877-927-6648. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today at TFNN.com. Educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay we're back folks and we have Stan Harley in the house. Stan, how are you doing today? I am doing just awesome Larry. Well you look pretty sharp with that striped shirt and everything man you're really becoming a regular New Yorker or what do you call it a New Jersey guy now right? Well thank you, thank you. Hey I wore my tie today as well you know. I got I you know Stan I probably have $3,000 with the ties back there over the years and I tell you maybe more because I wore ties all the time. Let's forget about that stuff. Everybody wants to know what's going on? What do we do next? Tell us please. Okay well let's take a look at some charts shall we? That's what I want to see. What I brought today are some charts of the S&P and the Dow and I think it might give us some ideas of where I think things are heading. Of course we've got the big Fed Day today coming up here, the announcement coming up real real soon. So what are the technical suggesting? Here is a chart of the S&P 500 going back 20 years ago and I shared this with you about a month and a half ago so I'm updating it. But what I found Larry is the pattern from 20 years ago and the pattern today is just remarkably I mean remarkably similar. So kind of keep that image in your mind for the moment and then let's fast forward 20 years. Here it is to the present. I ran this off about an hour ago and notice the similarities. Wow we made a low in October of last year just like we did in the prior year I mean 20 years ago. Well heck I just laid the two charts on top of each other to make it a little easier to explain. The top chart is 20 years ago 2001 through 2003. The bottom chart is the current and what I've done with the purple vertical lines is lined up the lows and you can see within a day or two or three they line up with exactly the same dates as 20 years ago. For example 20 years ago we made a low in October on October the 10th in 2022 20 years later the bottom occurred October 13th. In late 2002 we made a low right near the end of December we did the same thing again here in December of 2022. Then we made another low in mid-March 20 years ago we did exactly the same thing within a day or two of exactly the same date here in 2023. Okay look at the pattern I've drawn the purple arrows. The high 20 years ago occurred on June 17th. What's today June 14th so one two three four trading days of 20 years ago if I underscore if the pattern were to continue as it did 20 years ago it would suggest we are very very close to some kind of a high and we might get a little shake-out lasting a couple of weeks into early July. You know these patterns work until they don't but I mean I've been showing this with you now for a couple of months and it just keeps on working. Yeah that's for sure and you said I know how this stuff works at some point they cease to be to be similar but right now it still seems to mirror the pattern from 20 years ago. It's pretty much spot on okay this is the kind of stuff we'd like to see please continue. Here is a chart of the Dow Jones industrials and the prior charts were the S&P this is the the Dow industrials from a little over an hour ago and I've had a similar chart on the air with you for the last few months there is a down sloping trend line emanating from November the 8th 2021 which is essentially governed the pattern of highs on the Dow industrials so as you can see how this line has come downhill each of the highs since that date have been either right on the line or a little bit above or a little bit below we're a little bit above it right now but until this trend line gets broken convincingly to the upside you have to you have to give it its due and right now it's it's pretty much got a glass ceiling on the market. One more thing that is is not trivial here but I want to point out some Fibonacci Lucas relationships that cluster in the present time frame I talk a lot about Lucas numbers as you well know I find that Lucas counts in terms of trading days or any type of units from high to high or from low to low tend to be most important Fibonacci numbers seem to work better from low to high or high to low and when I mean fib numbers it could be their multiples like times two times four times five and the same thing with Lucas numbers times two times four and that's pretty much it with Lucas numbers but just in the recent past measuring from the October 13th low of last year we are right now 170 trading days from that low low to high that's Fibonacci number 34 times five okay next we had a high as you can see there on the screen on December the 13th of 2022 okay let's use the Lucas counts because Lucas from high to high it seems to be the most often we are right now exactly 123 Lucas trading days from the December 13th high which is the highest high on the doubt chart by the way from the October low so that's something to pay close attention to and we are as I said right now we're 123 trading days from that date the next high occurred on February the second and we are 94 trading days which is Lucas 47 times two from that high the most recent low occurred on May the 24th we are 16 trading days which is Fibonacci 8 times 2 so I've got a clustering of Fibonacci Lucas counts right in here between say here in the next two three days so the the the technical underpinnings are strong but not certain but strong for the market to stall out right in here and that may happen it may not happen but nevertheless the the underpinnings are very very compelling for the market to stall out right in here and we shall see sometime between now in the next two or three days I think that's highly plausible wow it's really good please continue my friend oh wait wait a minute we might have a uh hold on I can tell you see much the time we got left here uh we've we've only got a second let's take it pay a few bills why don't we continue after the break larry let's do that we're going to pay a few bills for tf and n folks and then we'll be right back oh stand I got my my clock was wrong we got a minute and 20 seconds so if you want to cover something else before you go to the next chart how about the questions people are asking me are you considering the the seven stocks you know tesla amazon you know they they call the magnificent magnificent seven does that weight your analysis but you look at the broad market don't you stand I mean you just don't pick out seven stocks I don't just look at seven stocks I look at I look at the big five indices the major major for those for me the big five are the down industrials the dow transports the s&p 500 the nasdaq composite and the new york composite and I tried to make a sense of whether or not we have come from confirmation among those five or some type of divergences um but yeah just a few individual stocks don't really factor into my analysis I'm I'm more of an index kind of a guy and I want to look at the interplay among those big five and the evidence right now is very compelling not certain of course but very compelling we could stall out here for a couple of weeks before we resume the uptrend okay we're gonna they would stand hardly when we get back folks they'll miss the thing we'll be right back in just a few minutes you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is 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This program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ and Harley Harley stock market letter and please continue my friend absolutely Larry let's shift our focus from stock market to something else that a lot of folks probably have an interest in and that's home prices I tracked the the case Schiller series of market indices very closely and here's the latest there's a two month lag in the data of course but the latest data from from case Schiller for the national index show that prices may have peaked about the middle of last year they have pulled back but here's what's interesting the blue dots on the screen there represent the monthly price bars and the the data in red is an 18 month moving average that I have applied to the graph what I find it's very primitive but it but it works quite well a simple buy sell signal when the monthly price bars cross either above or below that 18 month moving average it triggers either a buy signal or a sell signal just going back in time you can see in 1998 the bars moved sharply above the 18 month moving average where I have my mouse cursor and we had a buy signal which remained in effect until late 2006 prices topped out then and then the monthly price bars broke below the 18 month moving average stayed below it until early of 2012 so if had you bought real estate during this time period well you you got hurt pretty badly however if if you had just been patient waited for a decisive break back above that 18 month moving average that would have rendered a buy signal and trends in real estate tend to run for long periods of time so it's it's rare that you get a fake out they last for generally years and we've been on a on a on a tear really in real estate the index has gone from about 135 or so on the national up to just north of 300 so you're looking at it more than a more than a double in real estate prices since 2012 now prices the monthly price bars have pulled back to that 18 month moving average but the latest data point ticked up so it did not break below the 18 month moving average yet so technically from a technical analysis perspective using a very simple 18 month moving average as a reference we're still on a buy signal in real estate file that one away for the moment and then let's look at the next chart which is a little more frightening as you can see this is the 30 year interest rate this is what one would pay if one went out and took a 30 year loan to buy a home and of course the topic of today is interest rates although the federal reserve does not directly control the 30 year rate that we all pay when we take out a loan to buy a house they are they are indirectly related they're they're they're they're somewhat tied together but as you can see rates have gone from two-ish and change yeah to seven in a very very short period of time in about two years and I don't that that's that's been painful for sure well just stop and think someone that tries to buy I mean you're talking the mortgage is going to be you know three times what it was you know because most of it's going to be an interesting because most people only put a small amount down you know stand when I bought my first house back in California this was back in oh dear back in the 60s 65 I bought a VA repo up there in Santa Maria and this is when they built I'm taking your time away please keep talking no no go ahead please no anyway that I bought that house for $25 down that was a closing cost on a VA repo in other words been repossessed somebody couldn't pay it and so I lived in it for for two years and by then prices had started in California it started their meteoric rise that continued do you know stand my house there in Westlake Village which was a you know it was a tracked house it was a nice house 3,300 square feet it's on the market for $1.7 million and I paid 32 grand for it well yeah well I'd like to tell you that I kept it all those years as well I know that market well and it like the rest of the country has had a meteoric rise a lot of real estate people are fond of saying the most important words are location location I disagree with that I think the most important words are market timing because whether we look at the national index we look at the Los Angeles area index the Phoenix index which you are part of the New York Metro index where I live now and down in New Jersey they all have this same waveform that I'm showing on the screen right now they all reflect the same waveform that the national index is reflecting they all tend to make their highs and lows together although when you get to the final terminal point either a higher low often there are divergences think of it like a stock price chart we look at the Dow we look at the Nasdaq we look at the S&P we look at confirmations we look for divergences and it's the same kind of mindset but right now I'd say we are in a topping zone but it might be premature to say the top is in until we see the national index in particular the LA index by the way has broken below its 18 month moving average but the national index has not so some divergences are starting to pop up and it's suggestive very very suggestive very compelling from a technical analysis standpoint that home prices are in a topping zone okay now just to sum up what you're looking at now is between the 14th and the 17th of June there should be some type of an intermediate top coming into the stock market then down into July and then up up and away is that pretty much what your analysis is saying that's pretty much what I'm thinking Larry yes well I know two great minds that think that way you and Larry Williams are pretty much exactly looking at exactly the same thing so we're certainly be watching it you know that'll be really really interesting to see you know how these things unfold but the gosh I was unaware of Larry's what has what has Larry been suggesting he's saying top in here he doesn't give the exact time but he said sometime here in June and then he said the middle of July around the 15th he does put put that date he said it doesn't mean anything it just means it's the middle of July he's looking for like a three-week correction and he think it's got a chance to really be a nasty one he said the worst that it is the better you remember Chris Carolyn right oh yes yes yeah Chris has got this date here that he's had since 1990 that he thinks is going to be really big and that's on the 25th of June which happens to be a Sunday and so I've got that marked on my calendar just to look at it but he also had that date back in 1987 well most people did that was at August 27th high that we had in the stock market you know that was the big harmonic convergence type thing so I don't know if that's a related to type I don't know if he works for Elliott anymore or not but they never mentioned him in his work so his work is okay but you know I'm short term oriented you know between Wednesday and Tuesday that's long term for me well it's Tuesday to Wednesday not Wednesday to Tuesday hey buddy thanks for joining we're gonna have you back on real soon okay my pleasure look forward to it it's our pleasure to have you on your real stand-up guy thank you very much Dan we'll see you soon okay buddy if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any 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and so much more on june 15th tim pitts to the gold market taking a look at cycle analysis ratio studies advanced decline indicators and other important tools for analyzing this sector sign up today on tfnn.com tfnn educating investors don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv okay we're back folks i posted the weekly chart of the treasury notes as you can see we're in a downtrend and the bounce off of that last low was not very much that tells us interest rates are still going to be going higher folks so i don't know what the fed's going to do this time but don't be surprised if they start raising rates again because they're not going to be dropping rates i don't believe i could be wrong but that's what it looks like from the cheap seats here in the Tucson, Arizona but make sure that no matter what you're doing yet during the fed if you're trading during that time to keep your stop working because my goodness you know these things can go absolutely nuts in either direction and they usually do either direction so just make sure that you do that if you did the trade like we were looking at today what happened to be selling the s&p september at 4438 your stop is 4438 so your break even you don't have to risk very much on that and that's the main thing that you want to be paying you you know close attention to so i i hope that uh i hope that helps it's all about risk control folks so keep your risk you know as near to your vest as you possibly can so that you you're always around to play the game and you'll still be in the game and that's the real key because no matter what happens after he's done talking the markets are going to continue trading and you know whether it's a day or two or three days you're going to catch somebody's moves you're going to miss some of the moves you can't get them all you try to get little bits and pieces i knew back in 1980 after being with Drexel for five years that i knew that i could beat the markets because just this a b c d that's what i used that when i got away from a b c d use and got a little of astrology again i always got my hand slapped so just remember folks keep it as simple as possible it's not how much money you make it's how much money you don't lose and if you keep that right in front of you you're going to be okay look at that chart and ask yourself how much do i have to risk to see if i'm going to be right so we'll see on the flip side tomorrow live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless building wealth