 Okay, very good morning to you. Happy Friday. It's the 7th of January and I've got some news for you before I begin And that is that this is going to be my last briefing on a daily basis. Don't worry I'm not leaving Amplify. We're just changing the way of which some of our content gets delivered So for those regular listeners, I'm still going to do the normal Monday morning look ahead So that macro outlook will go out as per usual to set you up for the week and then to bookend that don't forget You've got the market watch podcast Available on Spotify, Apple and all the other platforms where peers and I the head of training will talk over the main events of the week So hopefully that's the beginning and the end of the week in the interim period. Of course, I'll be tweeting As per usual, so I've got it up here and my handles there and Every morning as I'm sure some of you are aware I put out a full lengthy note for every trading session It really helps me get my headset for the day and helps me keep on track of all the news and my my thoughts and views on markets That goes out early in the morning So again, if you do need that macro update, you can still get it from here on my Twitter account So I'll drop my handle in the video comment section and then also on that You've got the web link here which allows you to sign up for our daily newsletter Which I myself write and it goes out at the end of every European trading day So we still got you covered in that respect But in terms of YouTube and what you can expect is much more kind of focused videos on certain trending hot topics Explainers and things like that. So I'll still be posting on a daily basis But the macro daily briefing will you go out now on a Monday? All right? Cool, let's move on and let's have a quick look at the markets and how we reside this morning And it's pretty quiet overall across the board But you would anticipate that ahead of the release of US non-farm payrolls, of course Which we've got this afternoon and that's going to be highly anticipated given some of the moves we've seen this week Which is namely that of the 10-year yield seeing its biggest weekly jump since June of 2020 Remember we've had The FMC minutes which took a decidedly hawkish turn. We also had the ADP Private payroll numbers come out much higher than expected and what we've seen then is quite a change in the timeline of the Fed normalization process that being not only for them to Accelerate taping tapering which we already saw announced at the end of last year to finish that quicker by March But also that time gap between the end of tapering and commencement of rate lift off being reduced Then from June to now markets priced in for around at 80% probability of rates to increase in March of this year Not only that then there's been some further fuel added to the fire from Fed's bullard and Just before I go into what exactly he said don't forget to get yourself acclimatized to the new rotation Of course and if you know your central banking then every year although the chairman vice and board members remained fixed voters on the federal open market committee the reserve President the reserve district presidents rotate on a year-to-year basis on the calendar year And that does mean now that bullard is a voting member this year on the FMC and why is that significant? Well, he is an outlying hawk amongst the composition of the central bankers in the US So what did he say yesterday? Well given? He's a hawk. It's not too surprising. But as I said Just gives further impetus to that yield moves that we've been seeing He said that the first rate hike could come in March and the Fed is now in a good position to address Inflation with rate hikes and balance sheet runoff is needed Importantly, he said he was one of those who projected three rate hikes in 2022 fine But he said the balance sheet runoff should start shortly after the initial rate increase So again just further cementing some of that market views has been emerging throughout this week The other thing that has been oil markets oils had a decent run actually over the last 24 hours In fact, we've moved to a seven week high Supply constraints in North America of setting any of these ongoing Covid-19 Outbreaks that we're seeing in China at the moment why particularly important for China Well, they're a big consumer of oil certainly that comes out of the Middle East for one The other is then that if they have outbreaks of Covid that impedes then their economic activity and obviously it's such a large Economy is integral to the global view at this point in time and it comes with the zero Tolerance policy of what they have when there's only a small outbreak. They shut it down Despite that though oil prices. I said to keep moving higher what's been going on Well a deep freeze in Canada and northern US is disrupting oil flows You might have seen some shots of Washington deep under snow and that is impacting some of the Distribution of oil flows through the network boosting prices just as American stockpiles are declining as well Output from OPEC plus member Kazakhstan's a giant 10 gas oil field has been temporarily adjusted Amid unrest in the Central Asian country Meanwhile production OPEC member Libya is down about 30% amid a militia unrest While Russia also failed to boost output last month and of course It's also comes with the market kind of coming to that view that the Omicron variant although Causing a high degree of cases the more mild symptoms then is not being as I guess restrictive of mobility as what we've seen from government measures going forward So all of these things contributing to pretty firm oil price for the week The other thing then is Jumping over to some other hot topics Bitcoin We talked about Bitcoin yesterday and I'll bring up the chart just to refresh your memory because we were talking about The breakdown of this price action here Which was if I just put a rectangle those support levels the breakdown through 45 and a half And I was talking at the time when we were looking on a daily chart about the breakdown of that Well technically I'd be eyeing the 41 K levels, which were the sep lows with the June July highs of 2021 And here we are We've just tested that really in the late overnight APAC session came down to 41,000 So I don't think that was particularly too hard to see from a technical perspective But we're kind of sat at that level at the moment I guess the question is do we go now bounce back up towards 42 and a half and towards 45 or do we break down further The next kind of landing zone I'd look at would probably be 37 and a half thousand futures Which was that August low and then down to 36 and a half, which was the July Support area and resistance seen late June now. What could trigger that downside further movement? would be Really a firm payrolls report because as you've seen throughout this week the higher yields dollar go more pressure It's generally put on Bitcoin And so I'd expect that trend correlation to continue And so if we do get that upside surprise a firm report coming out this afternoon Then that could be a trigger catalyst to break technically through that level 40 K of course is those lows that was seen in September and then again depending on the number Whether it's got the impetus to really Push on through that point will depend on how strong that is again a weak report the opposite We move back higher again. We find some support of the 41 in the short term all right, the other thing is GameStop is almost like a one-year anniversary event and GameStop shares The reason why I'm talking about GameStop is their shares were up as much as 27 percent after market yesterday Actually finished. They're up about 23 percent Why have they rocketed higher again? Well, the news is as you can see here They're launching a division to develop a marketplace for NFTs and Establish crypto currency partnerships according to sources and that's really just fueled it up again and The price movements in this stock to tend to be quite outsized And just given its link to crypto and NFTs the Reddit boards are lighting up again And the stocks just caught fire in the short term. So yeah, quite interesting just giving it was this time last year Obviously, we had that big squeeze in price So let's just talk briefly about payrolls. What can you expect? The actual headline reading today is expected at 400,000. What does that look like in context? Well, actually the last print that we had was a big disappointment came out at 210 400k would put us back up I guess on an average really across the last four readings So it would be improvement by around double of that prior number the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.1 from 4.2 percent with rate wages seen rising by 0.4 month-a-month and 4.2 percent year-on-year this December report definitely given the context of the week will be framed Then in context of that rate lift-off expectation Those minutes being hawkish Some of the policy makers suggesting a hike could come before maximum employment is met Remember, even if the number comes in in line today We are still around three and a half million jobs short of where we were prior to the initial pandemic hitting if we go back to the jobs Day two in the US back in Feb of 2020 but several have already Been several of the conditions for the Fed have already been met and most of these Fed officials have judged it could be Achieved relatively soon if job growth Continues on its current path in terms of getting where it needs to be to execute on some of their pre-deposed plans The other things then is how markets are priced. I mentioned Just given some of the things that we've seen March rate hike now is seen as around 80% probability So therefore the report be gauged to see whether March indeed is that first trigger point for the rate rate moves to Commence first remembering that although you've probably read has been quite a chaotic Scenes in the US with the the number of COVID cases Whether or not it was kind of built up Kind of figures where we got to a million cases in the day to increase testing Perhaps as people intermixed through Christmas in the years and so on Nonetheless the actual outbreak and the rapid acceleration of the Omicron variant in America will not be captured in the survey week Data for this payrolls report So that will come in the following report to come So it's worth keeping that in mind analysts at City actually put out quite an interesting point that I think could be key To deciphering how intraday in the market reaction might look like and they're watching the jobless and the participation rates They're saying that if further increases in participation or accompanied by a largely steady unemployment rate The start of rate hikes would more likely come At a come later at the June meeting is what they're saying All right, that is pretty much it otherwise for this morning. You do have the HICP flash so to kind of CPI reading for the eurozone at 10 a.m This morning is expected to decline slightly off those peaks of 4.9 percent last month to 4.7 for December And then really it's then just the payrolls report at 130 which will be key You do have some Fed speakers daily boss they can bark in all speaking post payrolls But do note that all of them are non voting members for this year of 2022 All right, that is it and so yeah, I'll catch you for the next video on Monday normal look ahead for the week So if you haven't already remember to subscribe to the channel to catch that and then yeah other breaking videos to come In due course. All right guys. Have a good session ahead. Good luck for payrolls and have a great weekend. Take care