 As I'm sure you've heard this weekend, Israel declared war against a militant group called Hamas who fired 5,000 missiles into Israel with zero warning and since then have done horrible things to, you know, stripping families apart. I saw an interview with the husband whose wife and daughter were kidnapped. I couldn't even imagine that I saw other videos of horrific scenes, which you don't know what's real or what's fake, but nevertheless, we know that there are some horrible things happening over there right this second. If you're wondering about my voice, I went to Vegas last week and I don't drink or gamble, so it's nothing like that. My daughter kind of caught a little bug and then I had kind of a sinus thing. And then I spoke. I did a 30 minute speech and the people in the crowd, you know, said this was the most powerful, moving, motivating speech that I've ever done. They said it was raw. It was authentic. And that's what it was. And I didn't plan it to be that way. It's just what came out. It's just what I was feeling from the audience and I just, I really let it loose. So this one hit a lot differently. I can't wait to get the footage so that I can post it here for you so that you can see the replay of that. I believe it's really going to change your life and make you a lot of money in real estate. I'm also doing a coaching session this Thursday, 4 p.m. Eastern. You can catch that at the Zoom link, joinricky.com. I'll put that in the description as well. But back to the subject at hand here, we are at war here. We aren't, but Israel is at war. And we don't know to the extent that this is going to escalate. We don't know how far this is going to go. There's a lot of unknowns. We don't know how involved the U.S. is going to get in this situation. So a lot of things are kind of out there. Now, as soon as I heard about this happening, I thought, oh, no, how is the housing market going to respond to this short and long term? So what did I do? I started researching how the U.S. housing market has responded. Two other wars, World War One, World War Two, Korean War, Gulf War, all the wars. And I looked at the data, right? And I read articles. So if you're an expert on this, please comment below. If you're an expert on how the housing market is affected by war, comment below and give us your perspective. It would be much, much appreciated because I'm in the very early research stages of this. And I'm going to continue to research as much as I can as I'm following the current story of what's happening in Israel as well as paying attention to the housing market. I'm going to give you a full housing market update video Wednesday. So be on the lookout for that. I'm going to go deep on what's happening currently in the real estate markets and where those opportunities are for you, whether you're an agent, investor, buyer, seller, whatever the case may be. But what I want to do now is I want to share with you a very short 60-second clip to give you an idea of what is happening over here in Israel. And then I want to share with you the research that I found regarding how the housing market responds to these different wars. And then we'll go from there. For years now, Gaza has been a place of turmoil and strife. It's people caught in the crossfire of a seemingly endless conflict. But the events that unfolded recently have pushed the limits of human endurance and tested the resilience of its people like never before. Residents at a Palestinian refugee camp in Gaza City searched through debris and moved people out of damaged building after an Israeli air strike. Explosions have been seen across Gaza as Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Hamas after the militant group launched a surprise attack the day before. And the saddest part is that residents are claiming that Israel fired all these rockets without any warning. At least 700 people have reportedly been killed in Israel, a staggering toll on a scale the country has not experienced in decades. And more than 400 people have been killed in Gaza, taking the debt toll to over 1,100. Fighters from Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israeli towns on October 7 with 5,000 rockets. This attack is the deadliest incursion into Israeli territory since Egypt and Syria's attacks in the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago. And that only gives you a very PG-13 experience of what is happening over there. It's absolutely horrific. So again, my prayers, my family's prayers, and it really makes you want to take a second and appreciate everything you got and enjoy every last second that you can because you never know when it's coming to an end. And I'm not even just talking about the markets crashing and you losing your money or even death. I'm talking about being stripped away from your families. Can you imagine that just for a second? OK, and we're over here in this bubble in the United States getting mad at somebody because they didn't get you your coffee quick enough or your phone, you know, didn't work for a second, whatever the case may be. It's perspective. It gives you much, much perspective. So again, just heartfelt from me to the people in Israel. Moving over to the housing market, which sounds kind of funny, huh? There's a war going on in Israel, but back to the housing market, you know, sitting over here, you know, making a video on YouTube, you know, while people are out there dying. It's it makes you take a second and really think about what we got going on over here. But I'm going to continue to do my job and no matter what's happening in the world, my job is to make sure that you you're connected to real estate in some form or fashion. And my job is to take whatever's happening in the world that affects real estate and report that to you and help you understand how it affects real estate and how you can can take advantage. I hate to use the word take advantage when we're talking about people dying. But what I'm talking about is to be prepared to help people. Right. Because I'll tell you this, the market never goes to zero. All right. Prices don't go to zero. The number of transactions don't go to zero. Never. And so there that means there's always people that need to buy and sell that are going to buy and sell and they need someone to help them through those transactions, whether you're by yourself. Right. Whether you are an agent, an investor, a seller, whatever you are. Okay. I'm here to bring as much knowledge as I can to you based on my research and what I am following along with and the market itself. So I'm going to continue to do that regardless of what's happening because that is my job and I owe it to you and I owe it to myself to continue to do my job. So let's dive right in here. We want to talk about World War I, World War II, how real estate in the U.S. reacted to those two moments and also the Great Depression. Maybe touch on that for a second. Let me get a swig of fresco before I do. Ma'am, every time I take a sip of fresco, I get a listing. You know, it's kind of like an angel gets its wings. All right. So right here we've got 30 year fixed mortgages. Let's dive right into that. Now, we're at 7.81. Can you believe it? We're literally about to be at 8%. Now, I don't know if it'll actually get there. Okay. I'm not saying we're about to hit that, but we're almost there. We're at 7.81 and there's a lot of bankers out there who actually are quoting some lenders who are quoting 8% on some loans. It's crazy. We're basically there. You know, and what we're seeing right now in the market, I'll give you a full update Wednesday. Okay. But we're seeing it up, taking new listings more than normal. Okay. I want to talk about that Wednesday. We're seeing prices, in my opinion, flatten out even though we're higher year over year. We went up a whole percent, a 1% from July to August. That's insane. Right. That's 12% over a year. It's insane. It's insanity. But we're going to talk a lot more about that Wednesday. But we are at this 7.81% interest rate. So what I wanted to first do is dive into interest rates. Okay. And this goes back to 1880. And you can see right here from 1880 to 1940. Okay. Interest rates never went above six or below five. They stayed in the fives the entire time. Crazy. What a run. What a run that interest rates had, that mortgage rates, 30 year fixed mortgage rates is what this is. And then in 1940, it dipped down into the between four and five range all the way to 1955, 56. It stayed between four and five. Insane. Insane. And then we get into, you know, the sixties where it actually did break six and then you get into the seventies and eighties where, oh my gosh, it went up to 19%. And then you see the down, the downward spiral of 30 year fixed all the way up until now, which this is probably a year ago because it's got it at 6% right there. But I thought, okay, well, here is a chart of mortgage rates through all these wars and everything. And you can see right here, 19, right around here was World War I. Okay. Interest rates kind of stayed similar. World War II was right here and mortgage rates came down during the war, World War II. Okay. So I'm just finding all this interesting, continuing to dig along. Now, look here, I found this chart, inflation adjusted. So keep that in mind. This is inflation adjusted home prices. But look at World War I right here. And we see we started here and we end up much, much lower. You know, home prices went down quite a bit in World War I. Quite the opposite in World War II. We start here and we end up here. And I do know the number there at 60%. You know, home prices increased from the beginning of World War II to the end of World War II, 60%. And you can see in the Great Depression, we started here and we ended here. So we were up during the Great Depression, home prices were up. Now, in the beginning of the Great Depression, home prices were on their way down. They hit a bottom pretty early into the Great Depression and then they picked up. Same thing with World War II. They were on their way down, entering into the war. They hit a bottom and then they shot up. Okay. But why would prices shoot up during the war? And what was the difference between World War I and World War II in terms of home prices? Okay. Well, I found this little piece of information. If U.S. goes to war, inflation and national debt will increase. Okay. Leading to low interest rates and inflation. Okay. So it's like, if we go to war, inflation happens, right? Leads to low interest rate and more inflation. So inflation leads to inflation. So if we actually, if this does escalate into war, then we could see national debt increase. We could see inflation and we could see rates come down, which creates more inflation. Okay. And potentially impacting the real estate industry with increased prices and the need for the government to print more money. So if we get into the situation where we get into war, it does escalate to that point. You know, during COVID, what do they do? Printed money. It created inflation. And all these things happen. And now we're still in recovery from that. We're still in recovery from the money they printed and the stimulus that they did and injected into the economy during COVID. That's what we're recovered. That's what this is all about right now is inflation jumped up because of that. And they had to raise interest rates. And that's what we're kind of going through right this second in the middle of us trying to recover. Now there's a war over here not to mention the war that's still going on in Ukraine that we're funding and we're sending money for. So you've got two situations over there with a lot of uncertainty in the market. There's also a lot of uncertainty with if we're going to go into a recession. There's a lot of uncertainty with the Fed if they're going to continue to raise their federal funds rate. There's a lot of uncertainty in the markets right now. That's what I find, you know, worrisome when it comes to all this. So why does inflation increase? Why does inflation increase when we go to war? Well, war bonds, war bonds and taxes provide finance for the war effort and reduced demand for civilian goods and services. Okay, reduce the demand to conduct a major war without that risks inflation. So they're trying to, you know, combat the inflation. If inflation is a risk during war, recession is another risk at the end of it. Okay, so excuse me. So let me let me get all this straight. A war hits. We print money. Interest rates go down to try to keep the economy going and, you know, support the war. And then, you know, inflation happens and then we had a recession. That seems to be the cycle when I look back at, you know, GDP and all the different things when it comes to, you know, recessions and wars and everything else. Now look at inflation during, this is World War II. Overall from 1939 to 1943, the Consumer Price Index inflation jumped about 24%. Okay, now, now you gotta think that's over a four-year period. Jump 24% while from 1943 to 45, just one year, it climbed only 4%. Okay, that's not crazy because over the course of four years, 24%. What's that? 6%. So it went from 6% a year to 4%. So it did come down, you know, but it was 6% a year during the war. A late 1943 comparison of the inflation related to key defense materials showed a dramatic improvement from the World War I failure. So what are they talking about there? Well, when you look at the prices in the World War I era. World War I and its aftermath, 1917 to 1920, then produced sustained inflation unmatched in the nation anytime since. Now, I think that, I think we probably broke that last year. Let's see. Actually, no, we didn't. Prices rose as an annual 18.5% annualized, annualized. We went at, last year, we hit 9.5% inflation. Okay. And what they're saying here is that we hit 18.5% annualized rate from December, 1916 to June, 1920. So four years in a row, we're talking about 18.5% annualized rate. Twice as much as the peak from last year. Wow, that is unmatched in any nation anytime since. Crazy. Increasing more than 80% during that period. Okay. All right. So here we have World War I, World War II, both of these times had inflation. Okay. World War I was way crazier than World War II. Okay. 18.5% annualized. But we did see inflation during those times. And we did see recessionary periods after the wars. And what did we see with home prices? Well, let's go back to that chart for a second. Right. Let's go back to that chart to take a closer look here. Okay. Now, this is adjusted for inflation, of course. And we see that home prices dipped to World War I and after came back up, had a little bit of dip during the beginning of the Great Depression and then rose up. I'm sure that was caused by interest rates coming down to try to suppress the depression and so on and so forth. Then we saw prices shoot up in World War II and continue to go up. And then they kind of stabilized for a while until the 70s and the 80s. Right. And then this big shoot up is actually the 2006, you know, boom that happened. But this is what happened with home prices. Okay. Now, I'm saying all that to say this, that it's something to pay attention to. I'm really interested in what the market's going to look like over the next 12 months, especially if this thing escalates any further. Now, what do you need to be doing as a real estate agent right this second? Let me tell you something. Right this second, we're in the fall. Okay. This is all normal, you know, new listings taken up, prices leveling out, days on the market going up. All those factors that are happening right this second happen every single fall. If you look at a chart for home prices in America, they go up and then go down every year, up, down, up, down, up, down. Same thing with new listings, up and down, straight down, up, straight up, straight down, every year. It looks just like that. This is nothing new when we get into this fall. Now, what we've got is a double whammy. We've got the fall and we have the bottom of the 10-year cycle. We have this 10-year cycle that's happening because of, you know, the Fed's raising rates and interest rates and all the things that are happening every 10 years or so. We had this massive cycle happen. We had it in 2008. We had it back in the dot-com crash in 2000. And now we're having it right now. Now, it's been longer than 10 years. Okay? This is the longest bull market that we've ever seen, but that's finally happening. Okay? We're in the middle of the 10-year cycle, the down part of the 10-year cycle and the down part of the year combined. And what you need to be thinking about as a real estate agent is that your business, you're not going to make a million dollars a year off of people that want to buy today. Okay? When you think about conversion rates, when you think about the amount of people that you talk to that actually buy today, what is it? Okay? If you're just taking the general population, what is it? 1-2%. If you think about online lease that are supposedly hot and ready to go, what is that? 3% or 4%? You're looking at 95% of the people that you talk to aren't going to do a deal today. Those are the people right now that you're looking to buy today. Those are the people right there who are going to do a deal later that multiply your business. You know, a lot of, you know, some coaching programs and stuff, they're only interested in you taking on clients that are ready to go right now. Anybody else? Forget about them. You're only, and you know, you get to that million, but it takes so much longer to get there. Why? Because you're not accumulating relationships. I want 100% of people. I don't want to fill my database with just the 3% or 4% that buy when I'm in front of them. I want to, if you don't want to do anything, let me dig a little deeper. Let me understand your situation, what you're looking to do short or long term. Let me acquire you as a future client. Let me have systems on the back and to stay in touch with you forever and make that influence massive. It's the people that don't want to buy or sell from you today that multiply 10x, 20x your business in the next 2, 3, 4, 5 years. I never made a million bucks off of closing the deal, getting people to sign the line, having great listing presentations, all that stuff, right? My business exploded when I built the database up to a certain point and these people started coming back to me as the market rebounded. And right now in your business, you've got a lot of people sitting on the sidelines. They're sitting on the sidelines because of interest rates. They may be sitting there because it's a little slower right now. It's fall. We want to see what happens. Now you've got the war that's happening. We don't know what's going to happen there. There's a lot of uncertainty. Some people are sitting on the sidelines and even the people that say they're thinking about doing something, they don't want to do anything. They're ghosting you. They're not moving forward and doing the things they need to do to move forward because they don't really want to do anything. You've got to learn to read between the lines. You're going to run into people who need to do stuff now. That's your now money. Okay. But 95% of people just aren't. But if you gather those people and those people, there's so many of those people right this second. That's why right now is the biggest opportunity when agents are laying down because what's the point and nobody's doing anything. Interest rates are too high. Fine. Go ahead. Lay down. Let me come in here and pick up your slack. Let me go ahead and get all the market share that you're giving up. Go ahead and take that and save that in my pocket for when the market re-explodes because guess what? Ladies and gentlemen, the market's going to re-explode. That's what I want you to be prepared for. Don't lay down right now. Get excited about finding the people that don't want to do anything right this second. Build that relationship for later. Do it through that process of going after the people who aren't ready right now just to build relationships. Guess what? Find so many people who want to do a deal today. Right? This is the moment right here. More important than any other moment, maybe in your career. Why? Because when the market is retracted like this, you have time to go prospect and to build your business and to build your influence. When things are great, you're too busy selling to actually go out there and shake hands and kiss babies and meet new people and do all the things you need to do to build influence. Right now it's influence building time, ladies and gentlemen. It's not closing time. You're going to close some deals. You're going to make it. You're going to keep your head above water, but it's not closing time. Right? It's not harvest time. It's seed planting time. You've got to understand the cycles of, you know, planting and farming. Right now is seed planting time, not harvest time. Are you going to pick up a few, you know, you're going to pick a few right now? Yeah. You're going to do some deals right now. But you're going to really build that 10-year business right now. Another thing to focus on is investors. They buy no matter what. They buy no matter what. If they see a deal, they're going to buy. They're going to buy. They're going to sell regardless of the market. The market goes up. Guess what? They're buying. If the market goes down, guess what? They're buying. You need to build a strong list of investor clients. How do you do that? Every single prospect you talk to say, hey, let me ask you this. If I had a great deal, smoking hot deal on the list, would you be interested? And then just listen to them and ask them more criteria questions if they are. Put them on your investor list and get to work for them. Build that investor list to the moon. Build 10, 20, 30, 50, 100 investors on the list that you're working with. Guess what? You don't even have to worry about leads ever again in your life if you have that going for you. Anyway, I digress. I hope this video helped you understand at least a little bit about how the market impacts to possible war that we're looking at who knows what's really going to happen. But if you if you're an expert in this field, please let us know in the comments what you think. If you have any questions, feel free to put those in the comments as well. And I'll see you guys on the next video. Let's go.