Stinguished guests, esteemed colleagues, and dear students.Welcome to the China debate.My name is Michelle Hooks, and I'm the director of the SOA's China Institute.各位來賓朋友們同學們晚上好。歡迎參加本年度的中國辯論會。我是倫敦大學亞非學院中國研究院院長,我叫Michelle Hooks.中國名字叫何麥小。下面我將簡單的用英語介紹一下。The SOA's China Institute represents Europe's largest community of China's scholars.Yes, we do speak Chinese.We teach and study China across a wider range of disciplinesand greater complexity than any other institution.We're also very modest.The SOA's China Institute also harbors an explicit intentionto promote dialogue about Chinabetween those who work in academia, in business, in government, in NGOs, and in the media.Our annual China debate epitomizes that issue.This year's debate will devote itself to dialogue about the social, economic, environmental, and cultural health of the country.It's my distinct pleasure to introduce youto the moderator of this year's debate, Sir Christopher Hump.Sir Christopher has done an extremely distinguished careerin the British diplomatic service,combinating and holding the poster for Magity's Ambassador to China.He also recently served as master of gondol and keys collegeat the University of China.He is an astute observer and analyst of Chinese affairsand I'm delighted to sayhe is currently registered as SOA's student.Now,hand over to Sir Christopherwho will introduce the other panellistsat the format of tonight's event.Please join me in welcoming them.You shouldn't say so,we're here to get your Chinese number.I will switch back to Englishto say thank you very much for that introduction.It is correct that I'm now a graduate student.So as I wasn't here,I would like to introduce youto the next week's exam on Southeast Asian art.But then we move straight into the introductionvery distinguished group of panellists.Setting on my left,I have Beverly Sun.Beverly is one of the first American femaleentrepreneurs to establish a real estateand relocation firm in East Asia.First in Hong Kong,she expanded into China in 1995.She's based in Hong Kongbut travels all the time in mainland China.Secondly,we have Professor Andrew Walter.He has a chair at the School of Humanities and Sciencesat Stanford.He's a member of the Department of Sociologyand also part of an instituteof international studies.He's previously taught at Columbia,Harvard and Hong Kong University of Scienceand Technology.He's written extensively on Chinaat his latest book,which has come out this year,is China Under Mouth,A Revolution Derailed.And then on my far left,we have Isabelle Hilton.She's based in London,a writer,a broadcaster.She is reported from around the globe.She is the founder and editorof China Dialogue,which many of you will knowas a bilingual,what would you call it,based magazine dealing withenvironmental issues.It's very influential.She has written for BBC Radio and Televisionand for a number of the presswritten media as well.Now,if I can just explain how the evening is going to run.First,I'm going to ask each of the panelliststo give a short presentation on a topichow healthy is China.As you have heard,they come from different placesin the world,different backgroundsand that's of course the point of bringing themto bear on this subject,which can be interpretedin a lot of different ways,political,economic,social,environmental.There will then be a short period of discussionbetween the panellists.I invite them to commenton points raised by their fellowsin their initial presentations.And then for the final part of the sessionthere will be some questions to be answered.Members of the audience,I'm not sure whetherall of them are yet present,have been invitedto put inquestions in advance.We have chosen some excellent questions.I will invite the audiencemembers who are hereto pose their question and they will be answeredby the public.So,let us beginand I will tell to Beverly to make the first presentation.Thank you all for the honor of being here.It was in 1980,two years after Deng Xiaopingtook the Monument also to open China'sWest that I first stepped into China.crowds of blue uniforms would walk upto me in the streets and stare at mebecause I had more colorful outfitsthat looked like I had come from another planet.Today,of course,everyone looks as thoughthey've walked out of Na'ki Town or Blooming magazine.In 1985,I founded a relocationto the state company in Hong Kongwho continued my travels to China.And in the early nineties,I establishedin Shanghai and then moved to Beijingand Guangzhou with projectnumber 20 cities across China.When my first employee asked mewhat my vision was in China,I told them that it was simplyto provide services with integrityto western multinationalsand to one day work with Chinese companieswho would want the same typeof value added services.And here we are today.I think we would all agree that Chinahas enormous potential to continueto modernize,yet is facingmajor challenges.In considering the health of Chinathere are many possible metricsby which to measure or assess China's health.Economic growth,education,food safety,environmentalconcerns,political freedomcorruption,the list goes on.Courses are complex.Highly interdependent and difficultto aggregate to come up withan overall assessment,in my opinion.And rather than discuss these specificmetrics and overlap with my speedpillar class,qualify viewson economics and politics,I'd liketo take a different approach.Instead,having been in greaterChina for over 30 years,I willgive a humanistic perspectiveto understand China.Afterall,China is comprisedof each of its 1.4billion individuals.Understanding how healthy China'sindividuals are is another wayto understand how healthy China isas a country,especiallyin such a highly collective society.So how do you assess how healthyare China's people?One way of capturing the overallthing that these many economicand social forces have on China'speople is to look at what isimportantto the people of China.What do people care about most?What needs are they trying tosatisfy?A good brainwork toanalyze this question is oneyou'll likely be familiar with.Maslow'sHigh Archive Needs.It describes the priority of aperson's needs.The foundationis the basis.Human need.Food.Water.Survival.Once that's attained,onecan afford to move up a leveland focus on safety andcontinue survival.Shelter.Environment.Employment.Financial security.Health.Then comes belonging.Relationships.Family.Frenchness.Before this esteem,gainingthe respect of others,materialfoods.Social stature.And once all of these areachieved,one can focus onself-actualization,a higherpurpose,be that religion,community service,orimproving society.Maslow'sHigh Archive is a way toassessthe health of a personin the grander sense of the word.Similarly,the healthof a country can be inferredby determiningwhat is mostimportantto it and its people.So,a higherpurpose,with something inbetween,or similar inbetween.The Chinesehigh-archy differs somewhatfrom Maslow's.China'sstrong collective cultureand values with 90%,92%of the people being HanChinese,one ethnicity,oneculture,are based ondeep relationships.Youget this one metal to theChinese culture.And it is,thefamily.In China,relationshipsare not the third level of the pyramid,but are part ofsurvival,one of the basis ofhuman needs.That is thebasis,not the third.So,fortoday's discussion,theChinese pyramid has four levels,not five.So,where is Chinaon this modified pyramid ofwhat is most important toChina.The dramatic shiftfrom an unburied society tothe China of today is morethan simply the massivewealth creation that hasoccurred.People have movedquickly beyond the bottomtears of the hierarchy,survivaland safety direct toesteem.And this has beenmostlyobviously manifestedin materialism as thesimplest way to gain self-esteemand social status.The riseof China's youth and leadersare already moving past thedesire of full worldly goodsand are focused on broadersociable good,a betterenvironment ofthe world.And these material displays represent the first timepeople have movedabove the bottom tears ofthe hierarchy and generations.Thata growing number of China's youth and leaders are alreadyon the side of the good,a betterenvironment,a support systemwhere the underprivileged,theagent,their parents,theiradvocation of corruption.Peopleare increasingly spendingtheir money on enrichingtheir lives,not by purchasingloser goods,but by exploringtheir own country and world.A hundred million Chinese tourists traveled globallyin 2014.Why?Toexperience and understandtheir cultures,their art,theirreusing,their architecture,howthey do business,howthe society functions,the foodsthat they enjoy,and so on and on.Andas they do,they bring backintangible souvenirs,bothsolemnly and at theconscious level.Values.Theirtravels shape their perceptionof the world,and that iswhat is important to them.Mybusiness is in corporateworkhorse mobility,andwe have been increasingly workingwith Chinese multinationals whoare sending people across the globe.These young executivesare excited.More oftenthan not,it's not because theysee the international assignmentas a means to their careerand income,but they'reexcited about the exposureand about bringing home bestpractices to further not onlytheir career,but theircompanies,but also theircountry.Their focused on howtheir learning can benefitChina's future.This istheir self-actualization,theirway of improving society,andthey are already at the upper tier of this pyramid.I'mnot saying that everyone inChina is yet at the top ofMaslow's hierarchy.There is away to go.But overall,thepeople of China are very muchmoving into the top two realms,esteem and higher purpose.Thatis healthy.But just aswith the medical assessment,theabsolute mentor isare only part of the story.Noone,if your patient isimproving or on the declinecompletely changes yourprognosis.So let's look atthe trends.The trends Imentioned earlier are globaltravel,the focus on improvingsociety.These are all continuingto grow.I mentioned 100million Chinese tourists inChina,this year onlyprojected to be at 140million.I increasinglysee this in my daily lifeand in my work.Everywhere Iturn,I meet young people.Andthese are people who are 35years and younger,withinmy work.And who areexcited about the future,thatare also increasingly focusedon integrity,on learningand contributing to theirsociety.Fundamentally,whatChina is the tremendous sense ofopenness and interest in theworld,optimism and drivethat I see in the youngergeneration.You see thistrend vests in social media,waybo,renren,qq,andothers.Social mediais exploding and has enabledChinese youth to congregateand express what is importantto them,what they value.Andit's not the discussion boardabout the latest cars,themissions,or the latestcelebrity news.It'sabout the environment,foodsafety,high standards ofeducation,and improving thesocial good.It's aboutintegrity and doing the rightthing for their family,for theirfriends,and for their country.It'sabout their higher purpose.Theyare increasingly at the top ofthis pyramid,because they can affordto be there.In conclusion,inrapid pace,a populationof nearly 1.4 billion has movedfrom the devastation of thecultural revolution to beingthe second-largest economyand is soon to be worse.Ithas done so through atremendous vision,orpistration,and leadership ofthe government and drive ofits people.Rules,laws,directives can all bethere,but unless you have abillion individual humanspirits proactivelyembracing change,makingsacrifices,theezingexpertunities collectively,inother words,withoutshared values of what peoplefeel is important,this daunting growth could not have occurred.China's peopleare keenly focused on China'schallenges precisely because theycan afford to care about grandersustainable issues beyondtheir own survival,or theirindividual social status.Inother words,because the country'shigher than it has been indecades,perhaps in history,theyare collectively assembling inMausol's Hierarchy elite,andare transforming the country intoa responsible globalcontributor.So if you ask mehow healthy is China,Ibelieve that althoughChinastill faces many challenges,itis arguably healthy andconsciously focused onbecoming healthier.Andwhatever people may be inMausol's Hierarchy asindividuals,theyare assembling.Thank you.Thank you very much.I thinkthere are some very interestingpoints that we may come back to in our discussion.If we would start off to AndrewOK.I checkedthe World Bank website this morning.And last year itappears that China pulled evenwith the United States asthe world's largest economy,whichis inMausol.Both economiesare roughly $16 trillionper year in purchasingpower parity terms.China's economy has grown 16times in size since1980.I'd like toreflect on this landmarkand what it means andwhat it doesn't mean,andwhat it says about how farChina has come and whatthe road ahead will be.And I'dlike to start by quotingChinese economist who has quotedabout this number last yearas it appeared that China wasabout ready to become theworld's largest economy.He saidforeigners take every numberabout China and multiplyit by $1.3 billion.He said in China we couldtake every number and wedivide it by $1.3 billion.And in that spirit I'dlike to talk about whatthis landmark means forthe future problemsthat it may face.China'sGDP per capitain saying purchasingpower parity terms was$11,800last year.That's10 times the number.That'sa measure of the level ofdevelopment,not just the sizeof the economy.That's 10 timesthe sizeof the economy in 1990.It'sdouble India'sdevelopment.In Chinait began the reform andopening process in 1980 androughly the same problem.Howeverthis ranks China's63rd out of some 130countries of the world.It'sat the bottom of themiddle incomeeshalon of the world economies.You start toenter the upper incomeeshalon at around $30,000per year.There are 17countries that are about$30,000per year.Soin terms of levelof development,thissurprised me when I lookedthrough the website a coupleof days ago,what countries doesChina rank with now in termsof its level of development?Thesecountries would include SouthAfrica,Serbia,Peruvia,Georgia,the Dominican Republicand Colombia.The levelof development of countriesin the middle income bracketlike Mexico.In Brazilare still 50% higherin terms of per capitaincome.Now we all knoweverybody has been noticingChina's growth is slow.It's been10% a year,roughly forseveral decades.It's slowto about 7% or less.Nowworld bank projectionsand many economists projectthat within 10 years it will bedown to about 4%,maybeeven 3%.So the questionis,will Chinawill China be hitting a plateauwill it level offand will it be caught in whatis often talked about,themiddle income trend,whichwill be at about the levelof Mexico or Brazilor will China'srise continue and go along the path of countrieslike South Korea,which was the lastcountry to move into the upper incomeor even earlier Japanand ofcourseChina's leaders have the aspirationand Chinese people have the aspirationto continue moving on this upwardtrack and not be trapped in thismiddle income level.NowI'd like to argue thatright now the prospectslook somewhatworry if you look very closelyat some of the social figuresabout inequality,aboutwages of the sizeof the labor force.I'd like toshortly discussfive things that are challenges.First of allwages in Chinamanufacturing in particular are risingrapidly.The labor force is shrinkingat the same time you have growthslowly.Secondlyyou have a rapidly aging populationin a country that's stillat a relatively low level.Third,China has very high levelsof income inequalityand its levels of incomeequality are unusualfor countries outside of Latin Americaand some there in Africa.Fourthly,there are problemsin the educational systemespecially basic level educationin rural China which will effectthe labor forcein the future and its ability to move upinto higher value chain of production.And finally,China hasa rather pronounced versionof coming capitalismwhich decades agowas modeled afterit was inspired bythe Japanese corporate economywhich as we all knowhas really hit the wallover the last 15 yearsfor reasons I'll talk about briefly.Now,one of the prospects for Chinamoving ahead.Since 1960only 12 countries have movedfrom the middle incometo high income status.All the others have stagnatedat the middle income level.China have made it out of the middle income traphave had moderate levelsof income inequality.So the genie indexwhich everyone talks aboutChina's was in the low30s,point 3,2 or soin the early 1980sthe higher this numberthe more unequal the economy is.Now,all of the countriesthat made itout of the middle income traphad genie indicesin the low 0.4all of the failed caseswere above the 0.4between 0.4 and 0.45China's currentincome inequality measureis 0.53which is very much higherthan all of these countriesthat have failed them actuallyto move on.EducationChina's populationthe broader populationnot the students in the best universitieswho are very very talentedand very well educatedbut the average level of educationof the overall labor forceis lowand it is not likelyto improve soon.China's ministry of educationclaimsthat 50%of labor forcehas some high school educationnow ministry of educationfigures are based on governmentsat each level that reporthow many students they have in schoolfor which they get subsidiesin the budget.Sensitakerswho go to householdsand askFadlandshow many people in the homehave atleast some high school educationthe number is not 50%is 24%China's ministry of educationtheir figures say that the high school83%of high school agepopulationare inhigh school presentlybut the census data said 53%these figures are lowerthan those countriesthat have become stuck at the middleof the income level.Lower considerably lower thancountries like Brazil,MexicoChina and Turkeynow I said earlierwhy will thiswhy will these numbers not improvewell it's fairly simple public educationin China is not freein fact it's fairly expensiveespeciallyin rural areasit turns outand I was quite surprised to find thisthat China's rural high schooleducation,tuition and feesare the highest in the worldfive times higherthan the next most expensive countrywhich is Indonesianow what this meansfor China's economyis the followingone reason for poor high schoolin bromance is the high demandhigh wagesthat I mentioned earlier in my presentationwages and manufacturing jobsare really quite highthey've been rising fasterthan the rate of economic growth in Chinathere's an estimated 1.3for each workerin the manufacturing sectorthis is why wages have risen fasterthan the growth of the economyand I thought for many yearsthat this would never be a problem for Chinabecause that means simply that the processing firmswill move out of Guangdong in the coastal regionsand move into the interiorto Sichuan and other placesit turns outhoweverI've learned thatthe labor marketnation-wideit's a single labor marketwages are the samethroughout the country and the interiorand the coastand the workers who were willing to workhave moved and migratedto the coastal areas alreadyfor a very long period of timeso this means that you haveyou also have an aging populationthat this labor force is shrinkingand this trend will continueroughly 2 million workersleave the labor forceevery year in Chinafor the past 3-4 yearsand this number will accelerateas the population agesmore quickly in the next decadethis obviously will threatenthe modelthe economic model that was so successfulin the last 10-30 yearsthis export ledit will affectforeign exchange reservesand trade surplusesforeign firms, I'm toldare already starting to movetheir operations outside of Chinato other regionsI'm told that Samsung has been movingits operations to Vietnamit's very large operations to Vietnamover the last 5 yearsand I don't claimbeing from university in Silicon ValleyI don't claim any special knowledgeto relocate its operationsto another countrythey're seriously considering Indonesiain other wordsthe exit of these export-orientedmanufacturing firms has already begunand is going to accelerateand this is why China's leadersand most observers are sayingChina has moved to a differentchange gears and a differentmodel of economic developmentnow briefly mentioned obviouslythe budgetary implicationsis a rapidly aging populationwhich leadsto a smaller ratio of peoplewho are employed to people who are retiredthis is happening at the same timethat the growth rate is already slowingand because of the one child policythat was enforcedso rigorously for decadesChina's populations agingvery quicklyand it will be a countryat the lower level of middle incomewith an aging populationit will be actually olderthan the United States populationwithin ten yearsfinallyis the big questionI think the fundamental systemic questionsall these things that we've been talking aboutare not that manipulableby policydemography is baked inthe size of the labor forcethese are not things that any government can really easilyrespond to in the short runbut the big question really iswhat's called the Beijing modeloris really a form of crony capitalismapproximately 30%of corporate assets are still in the state sectormany of these are large nationalchampionsthey look very largevery impressiveespecially in the world rankingsthe world's largest corporationsand forums and fortune magazinesmany of these howeverare actually former planningindustrial bureausfrom the old command economy daysthat have been structuredand reorganized and mergednow these firms don't really operatein the same way as firmsin otheror market oriented economiesthey have a monopolyor oligopoly position in the domestic marketthey are protectedmostly from foreign competitionthey are being given bankfinancingfrom state banksat preferential rateswhen they can't pay these loanstend to be rolloverand ultimately when they're not repaidthe state banking system has to berecapitalizedthere are very high rates currentlyof corporate debtdue to the investment-led stimulus packageofthe way that Chinaavoided an economicdown turn after 2008these firms are in many ways too big to failthere's a lot of national prestigevested in thembut they're going to have to be restructuredor partially privatizedor beforced to facemarket-based competitionand of course this is something that China's leadersknow and it's in theeconomic reform planthat they published last yearnowthis is an economy I said earlierthat it was inspired bythe Japanese model of the 1970sand 1980s and I rememberhow everyone was worried that Japanwas going to take over the worldback in the 1980seventuallythe protectionism, the crony capitalismled to stagnation in Japanand we all need to worryI think China's leaders are aware of thisand they're going to think of waysto avoid this kind of thingso very quickly I thinkmy time is upbut I'd like to sayvery quickly a post script on corruptionand the anti-corruption campaignyou can tolerate a great deal of corruptionwith 10% annual growththe current campaign against corruptionis highly popular in Chinait's long delayedand I think we all agreethat it's something that's badly neededbut the problemthe reason why corruptionis a problemthe problem that Xi JinpingC as one of the greatest threatsto the future of the partyof China's stabilityis baked into the organizationof the political systemwhich deeply penetrates the organizationof the corporate economyand it's very difficult as a private entrepreneurat any level to do wellwithout at least good relationshipswith the local governmentand government officialsso in other words toothe task is easy to understandit's a particularly difficult taskto restructurea large economythat large corporate economyand what really will staythe government's handis that any changes that you begin to introducewill threaten to lowerin the short run growth rates even moreand this is a partythat really seeshigh growth ratesas essential to stabilityso in many waysi think it's a very interesting momentto be talking about the health of Chinawe've been on the wholerather positive by Chinafor about 30 yearsvery impressedwith the China miraclewith the great growththe kind of economic figuresthat Andrew was quotingbut i thinkthat just at the momentwhen we reached a pointwhen all our futureswith Chinais now such a weight in the worldthat whatever happens to Chinainescapably affects everybodyI hear more and more anxietiesabout the state of Chinathat you hear anxieties in Washingtonand hurt feelings in Washingtonwe're used to hearing hurt feelings in Chinathere are a lot of hurt feelingsin the United States at the momentabout China's recentbehavior and there are greatanxietiesabout the strategic anxietiesabout China's riseand what sort ofplay out China will proveto be in the internationalworldnot helped by theSouth and East China sea behaviorswhich i thinkhave been felt to be disappointingbut also the fear of the internalpressures created bythe sort of nationalism of grievancewhich has been cultivatedin 1989 as the majornational narrativea dangerous choiceit's a self-created trapif you like for China's leadershipand i think the seesawing natureof China's foreign policyremains confusingto many observersand just as we're getting used to the ideathat the Chinese economy would powerlong and be themotor of global growththe Chinese economy is floodedafter the great financial crisisthe Chinese economy is slowingit's aiming at 7%most observers think it's around 4.55at presentand for many of the reasons that Andrew mentionedit's not likelyto pick up very powerfullyin my viewjust at the moment when China is trying toexecute this very importantspeciatric shift from the old modelthe low added valuemy investment export ledhigh polluting modelto moving up the value chainand all those thingsand relying more on domestic consumptionthan on exportsand domestic consumptionis growing but againfor reasons of demographyit's hard to see that being as powerfulmotor as it needs to beinvestment is intriguingsubstantially and debt is a veryheavy burdenif you look at an aging populationand you look at the one childpolicy and the impacts of thatwhere you have a younger generationwho might be expected to spend morebeen responsible foraging parentsand grand parentsthey're not going to have as muchspare cash in the large populationoutside the relatively privileged circlesI think that the momentthat China has reachedthis strategiceconomic pivot if you likeChina has set itselfsome really excellent objectivesthe 12th five year planif you're looking at the health of Chinaif I were China's GPand I saw this patient arriveI would be looking at somebodywho was getting on a bithaven't really lived very wellin the last few yearshaven't really listened to the doctor's adviceso if you look at the systemsthat support healthor mental senseand the health of its populationand the health of the economyI would say it's lookingpretty ropyand rather like someone who in their late 50sdecides to go to the gymprobably should have gone there 20 years earlierChina is now trying to executea verycreditable shiftto a moresustainable modelwhich began with the 12th planand will continue with the 13th planthe problem is that just as againnot to labour this poor patientmatter for deathbut if you give up smoking in your 60sit's not nearly as good as giving up in your 30salthough you'll feel betteryou still have a lot of damageand China is in that condition nowChina is trying to moveto a moresustainable economyafter 30 yearsof taking the viewthat rapid growth is what countedthat we'll get richand then we'll clean upnow Chinain addition to all the other challengesit facesis facingthe very very heavy consequencesof a verywasteful and polluting modelnow every industrialeconomy did thisthe bridge startedthe United States did itGermany did itwe all polluted firstwith the ideathat we would clean up laterthe problem China hasmuch much less hebrewthan anybody else if you think China has roughlythe same surface areas in the United Statesbut only a fraction of the usable landand five times the populationif you look at any measureany index ofenvironmental hebrewChina starts off gravelydisadvantaged that's bad luckbut that is the realityChina starts offfor instancewith a very very lowallocation of fresh waterwe don't think of China as Saudi Arabiabut North Chinait has about the same allocationof fresh waterand thispoor allocationis exacerbated by uneven distributionso you'll have sometimestoo much water south of the ANCand not nearly enough north of the ANCand if youadd on to thatthe fact thatmost of China's surface watera great deal of its underground waterhas been heavily pollutedthrough very poor governancethrough the get rich quick approachof the chemical industryamongst othersthrough the fact that almost 20%of fresh water is taken upby coalby the mining and processingand general use of coalby the fact thatNorth Chinahas been drawing downits reservesincompensatingfor itslack of water byoverdrawing water from riversby overdrawing from underground aquifersso that the water tableunder Bay June for instancehas dropped by some 80 metersand all over the North Chinaplain you can see indentationsof exhausted aquifers17,000 riversdisappeared completelyin the geography surveyin the last 20 yearsyou can see thatat least in terms ofa patient who hopes to live a long timesomething quite drastichas to happenand there is a huge economic riskbuilt into thisNorth China has 40%of theChinese economythe assets at risk in agricultureare about $3 trillion a yearit's more than 40 trillionin terms of the industrial economyNorth Chinanone of this can function about waterpowering Chinawater and energy are intimatelyconnected decisionsevery energy decisionis also a water decisionand that isChina is running out of roomto make energy decisionsfreelynow China hasthe definition offoolish behaviourwhich is to keep addressingthe same problem with the same solutionand hoping it will work next timeChina's approach to itswater problem has beensubstantially an engineering oneChina has built more damsthan any other country in historyit continues to build damsit's currently building dams in one of the world'smost active earthquake zoneson transboundary riversunwiseand through all this engineeringsome of it quite heroic engineeringthe water situation in Chinahas got steadily worseengineering is not going to fix itthe most recent case of misappliedengineering is the south-northwater transfer projectmulti-billion dollarproject to movereally inadequate amounts of rather dirty waterat a high energy costfrom south China to north Chinanorth China's water problemand on a cost per litre basisit would be cheaper to desalinateso curiously inappropriate decisionscontinue to be madeand I think one of the reasons that they continue to be madeis that althoughwe do see a tremendousawareness at this pointwhen we started China dialoguetoward nine years agoenvironmental problems really were at the marginof public discussionthere was the beginning ofa civil society that was concerned with itand some very talented and active individualsbut in general termsthe priority was stillvery rapid GDP growthtodayenvironmental concernsare a matter of regimes alivewe know about air pollutionwhich has caused the regime totake quite serious measureswater pollutionand water scarcityor also existential threatsto the chinese economywe don't hear so muchabout soil pollutionbut that's an equally severeand extremely intractable problemwhich is currently a state secretthe extent of a sustained secretit's more intractablebecause it's very expensiveand difficult to fixso cleaning up soil and then remediating itso that it is of some useis very difficultand issues come togetherand certainly the governmenthas respondedthe twelve five year planis a bid for sustainabilityit will take a long timeto turn the economy aroundand meanwhile the billsfor past behaviourwill have to be met in some formand what are these billswell they are the cost of remediationthey are the cost of treating the waterother than discharging dirty waterthey are the cost ofmaking an energy transitionwhich allows you to clean up the airand they are the health impactson the chinese populationwhich are equally severeand air pollutionis not just ugly and unpleasantit causes lung cancerand chinese lung cancer rateshave gone up almost as fast as the economyif you look at the graphwe don't hear quite so muchabout other forms of cancerthe entire community is struck bythe effects of the chinese industrial revolutionbut they are also severeand those bills will have to be metso there is a toxic legacyof the race to industrialiseand although it is fixableit is a burdenon the present and future generationsand just to cheer you up completelyas mentioned climate changeChina is very vulnerableto the impacts of climate changebecause most of its developmentits advanced development is on lowlying coastal citiesso sea level risemonsoon variabilitymulti places in the Himalayaor of those are extremely seriousI can see you christenedgetting anxiousso the good newsthe good news is thatin certain climate policyChina for many reasonsis I think going to surprisea lot of peoplewhen its climate planis published and come to pariswhy do I say thatbecause China is at the same time sufferingall these problemsthe biggest producer of solar panelsthe biggest producer of wind technologyit has a very largeinstalled capacityfor renewable energiesand it has promised to peak its emissions30probably couldn't do it by 2022might do it by 2025and emissions will then begin to declinethere is a very positive contributionChinais going to makenobody is doing enoughbut certainlyI think the Copenhagen situationof which China was playingfor the breakdown of the talksis not likely to beto be repeated in parisso I'll stop therevery muchI think we've had three very rich contributionsand there are manydifferent lines of discussionwhich lead out of themwhat I'd like to suggestsince we're going to have to compress matters a bitis that I try to extractout of those presentationsreally just two questionsso I'd like to put those outand that will giveall three of you an opportunitybriefly leads to commentwhat you really likeout of what your fellow panellists have saidone of them isI was very struck by what Beverly had to sayabout the sense of opennessand curiositywhich she encounterson the part of young peoplethe question in my mind isis that sense of opennessand curiosityshared by the partyshared by the governmentfacilitated by the governmentin the way whichis really going tomake China developin the healthiest possible wayand the other questionis on this whole question of reformbut there is now a paperas Andrew saidsome very ambitious planssome very impressive looking plansthe third cleanerin the jargonlaid out a veryinterestingset of reform proposalsbutis there a willto put those proposalsinto effectare the vested interestsgoing to be overcomeare those reformsreally effectively going to be carried outin the way which will make China'seconomic healthlusty as it should beso who would like to comment onone or other of thosebut so goodmay Iit was just on the question ofwhether the curiosityin the open mindedness of the youngis shared by the governmenti think that maybe fivesix years ago i would have saidyes todayi wouldcertainly not say thati think that we have seenincreasingly concernsexpressed at the most senior levelsabout western ideasand how dangerous western ideaswhich i described as dangerous to Chinaactually the dangerousperhaps or seen as dangerous to regime survivalwe seeincreasingly heavy handcentership and increasingly heavy handin the free flow of informationwe seeincreasing arreston all sorts of chargesof people who are thinkingpeople who have set up think tankspeople who are putting forward ideasaboutfuture governancein all sorts of waysso i think that that isa retrograde trend at the momenti would like to propose thatobviously China is a veryvery large countrywhat seemingly may becensorship which there isthere has beeni thinka movementin factrewritingtexts and limiting informationthat flows through the countryby the same tokenChina is allowingpeople to leaveit allowsthoughtful processthe concern isat what speedso i think there is a little conflictthere in respect ofnot and cutting backand reverting and refrenchingi would like to thinkthat they're looking to slow down the processwith innovation and technologyand allthe strengths and the ills of thingsit bringsthere is great concern that itgoes too rapidlylet me give you an examplein fact one of my colleagueswas on a flight from Shanghaito Guangzhouas it turns outthere was a rumor in Guangzhouthat theweageri don't know if you're aware of it in Xinjiangbecause of the minority groupChina looks in whatthey consider to be an equal opportunityposition to takethe weager people to different partsof the country so that they might participateto the economic growthof the countryand a rumor was spreadthat six weagershad attackeda young womanin Guangzhouand that led to cell phonesall the way back to Urumuchithat led to riots wheretwo hundred people were killedthe unfortunate thing about thiswas that this was only a rumorso those arereal concernsand it's comingand China will invest in itbut there needsperhapsto be acertain temperingin terms of speedwhich all of this growsI was listening to myself talkI thought this was really a pessimisticpessimistic talkI'd like to actuallypick up on something that Beverlysaid aboutthe openness and curiosityI was also notstruck by thatIwhen I analyze theissues facing China I tend togo heavy on the problemsandmake very clear what the hugechallenges are butthis is especially truewhen I'm in the United States sitting in my deskand then I go to Chinaand of course I meet many Chinese peoplealso in the university but I meetbasic level officials in ChinaI meet academicswhen I go to villagesthen talk to villageor county levelofficialsI get the sense ofvery intelligent,hardworkinghonest people I don't actuallysee the corruptionthat people talk aboutI've never been shaken down by a traffic copfor anything like thatwhen I read books aboutRussiaand constantly I almost adoptthis kind of proud feelingas a student of China that Chinais rungovernment much betterthan these countriesand you know this is most of my workin recent years has been about Chinain the 1960s and even in that periodChinathe Chinese Communist Partyis a very well organized entitysothere's an irrational part of methat wants to believe thatsomehowthe people of Chinawill be able topull themselves outso that's my ham-handedattempt to put in a little bit morehappy faceit sounded like a pretty gloom presentationthank you very muchnow I'm going also to be a bitselective with the questions which I haveand choose oneswhich are going to have a new handleto our discussionin generalsomehowwould you like to ask your questionI feel like David doyou do like to ask your questionyesin a loud voicethank youdo you see anylikely of the Chinese Communistwilling to spendsomething like 10% of GDPon health and medicineon the populationfrom theretaking into account the backgroundof ancient demographicsquestions to be expenditure on health careand perhaps welfare as wellare you going to startI do see Chinabeing very concerned aboutthe wealth growth of its peoplebeing part ofthe cracked on corruptionI would think that the medical industryis one that bringsa great concern to Chinaand as the populist growsand you have a middle income centerthe people who now become hopefulare expressingthe need for better medical careorto look as wellas the country havingan agent populationChina will have to committo developinga larger medical platformfor its peoplein fact I do believe that it ison their agendaone of the important onestogether with food safetytogether with pollutionShenghai this yearhas committed to 27billion dollarsto work on pollutionto clear up the riversto investigatehow they might improve the air qualityto look after toxic wasteof the area through factorieswithin the ShanghaiTaiwanand 27billionnot committed fora five or ten or 20yearperiodes.It's a 3yearcommitment that that money willspend.Possible.Perhaps that.It's absolutely correct,and healthspending is going onyear on year.I think there're anumber of orch social costswhich are going to have to be metin over the next few years回到關於貿易性的問題是誰會去探討社會的社會權利和民主權利益這些是民主權利益百多萬民主權利益移民到城市但他們沒有社會權利他們沒有權利他們的孩子去學校他們沒有社會權利他們沒有任何的社會安全這是一種理解這是一種貿易性的這是一種貿易性的還有各種社會權利例如離開孩子孩子在家裡在家裡或在某些情況下或在某些情況下這是一種貿易性的最近有一個案件是殺害五年輕人在那情況下這會影響很多社會的情緒這問題是誰會去探討社會權利所以這些民主權利益有很多人在死亡他們沒有有權利的社會權利他們沒有有權利的社會權利他們要支持他們的貿易他們要給政府太多他們沒有有權利的社會權利所以現在有個戰爭社會權利在全中國的社會這是關於他們的財富而且到那時候這會很難知道在十年代他們的財富他們的財富沒任何支持其他的財富他們有權利的社會權利他們全國民主權利這些 defenders他們有權利的社會權利然後他的財富就是這個很多人要對財富APPLAUSE今日は去 cut一些一個較大的是否有任何法律的影響你會想去分析中國的健康好,這就是我的想法我認為中國大企業的貿易系統與其他國家的貿易系統與其他國家的貿易系統與其他國家的貿易系統與其他國家的貿易系統另一個方式,中國其實是不同的日本和西方的經濟是他們的貿易系統和貿易系統完全是一種這意味著你會看到一種貿易系統的貿易系統我們在美國和世界在2007、2008年因為政府對貿易系統要重新重新重新要立即重新重新他們會做這個比較少的貿易所以這不像是一種民主的經濟像你可能期待日本和西方的經濟我們看到在2007、2008年所以我認為這就是我認為我認為我們可以再說兩件問題一件問題如果我們不再回答中國要有什麼影響在貿易系統的貿易系統和貿易系統的貿易系統發生了什麼然後政府可以跟貿易系統的經濟和貿易系統的經濟中國很清楚貿易系統和貿易系統和貿易系統的貿易系統貿易系統的財富和貿易系統的貿易系統他們現在看貿易系統貿易系統建造新的貿易系統其實這應該是貿易系統的策略建造建造貿易系統建造貿易系統讓中國去到泰國建造貿易系統讓中國旗幟建造生產數據地景貿易系統轉化和貿易系統虛擬印象中實際影響而經濟增加到5%你仍然有持續的經濟我相信美國是對我來說1.3%是一種優惠的所以我認為我們必須一切看待這些問題看看其他國家的情況所以我並不太猶豫中國的經濟增加因為我感覺年輕人人們都願意做寶寶他們願意看待增加他們都很聰明這是一個很不同的概念如何他們能夠如何國家能夠增加自己這不是三十年的自然性可能二十年增加得快 unless you have the people with the type of willpower an ability to make sacrifices and to have hope所以我感覺我會說我會更加適合因為如果我來看水準it is a global problemI've spoken towater consultantand his concern is Californiamore so than Chinabecause China doesn't have the old infrastructureit will have the abilityto create innovationto find new methodologiesit doesn't have toleave all over old infrastructurewith the new technologywith new innovationChina probably has more of an opportunityto create new resources for itselfthat others are notand the final questionI think Luke Williamsis not with usbut he asked to what extentwould democratization of Chinaas he got saidlead to environmental improvementsWestern democracies do not have an exemplaryrecord of fossil fuelsand carbon emissionsIsabelYeah, Iwhich are entirely except the premise of the questionwhich are all democracies of the sameand all non-democracies of the samebecause it doesn't reallystand much examinationso at present for instanceEuropean union countriesare pretty much on targetfor a meeting of Kyoto targetsincluding BritainBritain is meeting its Kyoto targetsbecause Mrs. Sanchezclosed down the coal industryand went for gasentirely different reasonsbut neverthelessdelivered a climatedelivered a climate bonuson the other handCanada, Polandand Japan are not doing too wellAustralia is not doing too welland India finds it very hardto make any decision at allbut exemplary democracieslike Sweden and Denmarkare aiming to be 100%fossil fuel freein the next couple of decadesso I think youyou knowso the starting pointthat you knowdemocracies are performing worseI think it's not necessarily trueon whether democratizationI think we always tryto look at the possibilityof reforming Chinathrough probably the wrong lensbecause we seem to be lookingfor a ballot box behind everybehind everyunder every tableit's not going to happenbut China's systemwhich is more likeresponsive authoritarianismis certainly concernedwith public opinionand it is concernedwith a futureand that leads it to makedecisions which are going to bemore environmentallyfriendlyand certainly as I saidin my remarksin terms of climate policyChina sees a strategic opportunityand quite rightlyfor itsfor new technologiesI think environmentrather than climateand these are not the same thingthe difficulty I think that China facesin terms of cleaning up its environmentis one of governanceif you look at industrial societiesthat did clean upthey did so with the benefitof a robust civil societya robust legal systemso colluters could be taken to courtby well-funded NGOsa freedom of informationand a free presstransparency and accountabilityall those good thingswhich make for governancewhat we have in Chinais a lot of very good lawsvery very poorly appliednow there is some signthat in the 13th plana great deal of thoughthas gone into thisand so we will see reformsof a governance systemwhich could well affectimprovementone for instanceis to make officialsresponsible overtheir lifetime careerfor the decisionsand the consequencesof decisionsthat they makerather a good ideaI think we should do thatthat means you can't justyou knowrecitally move onand say in 20 years timeI can't even rememberwas itit will follow youand it will affect yourpromotion prospectsand that willmake behaviourmuch more responsiblein the dayso that's a good exampleof thinking about howwithin as a top-down systemyou do get better governanceand I hope it worksI still think thatthe kind of restrictionsthat are coming downso the societyI'm not going to helpyou need to engagethe populationin this kind of thingyou can't do it aloneas a governmentcapping itselfin that respectby not empoweringback to the showsurprising remarksthe question we have askedas divided opinionand China as a subjectof study divides opinionit's very temptingto spend most of your timetalking to and sittingin a room with peoplewho have basicallythe same opinionabout China as you haveand I'll reach outand talk to peoplewho come from differentperspectivesand have different opinionswhat we've been tryingto do here todaywhat we'll continue to donext yearand year afterand year afteris to bring people togetherwho hold differentperspectivesand we want to enterinto the conversationand we want to have that dialogueand I for one am delightedat the wonderful exampleis sent tonight by our paneland I would like all of youto ask them to thank them