 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good trading day. So let's review just a day ago, right? A day ago we had a pretty, pretty boring, I don't think it's more boring, pretty condensed session, right? I think a lot of you guys will kind of agree with me. We talked about it yesterday. Stocks were kind of like stuck in the middle of their ranges. There wasn't enough kind of movement downward pressure yesterday to sell off stocks and there wasn't enough upward pressure because obviously we're in a sell cycle that they couldn't get the stocks higher. And the most important part that we talked about going into yesterday's video is a lot of the names, they didn't start breaking down even though they've sold off into the close yesterday. What we started noticing was if you did your kind of chart work yesterday, you kind of saw that they kind of mirrored the NASDAQ 100 or the Qs that the Qs didn't take out the previous days low and neither did the stocks. And today kind of started out exactly the same way only in a very, very different matter. And let's kind of review going back to the weekend update now, right? It's like one of those movies they say, well, two days earlier, well, three days earlier. Okay, so let's talk about two days earlier. If you guys remember two days earlier, we were talking about on the weekend update that the fact that we're down 10% on the NASDAQ will probably do for some sort of snapback rally. We didn't get that on Monday. Okay, because if you guys remember, they opened up flat, started to rally a little bit and obviously hit supply and they rolled and went red. And today, if you guys remember in the morning, we were up pretty big in the morning. Okay, we were up about 300 points in the Dow, close to about 180, 200 points on the NASDAQ. And it put in the move that we were talking about from the weekend video, but it didn't in such an unorthodox way that nobody was long overnight. Right? Like, especially if you remember yesterday's close, how can you possibly be possibly be bullish going into yesterday's close? We sold off pretty much at the lows. And oh, by the way, we're going to sell bias bear scenario. So the fact that we got this pretty big gap up to you can see the futures at four o'clock and four o'clock in the morning cues were up at 278 fifties really, really big move. And by the time the market opened up, right, they were pretty much challenging the previous days high. Here is the problem, right? And here's always the problem when you're talking about a bear cycle. And correct me if you've heard this before, right, from some idiot, correct me if you heard this before. You never buy gap ups in a bear cycle because usually what happens in gap ups, they're going to get stuffed at supply at some point, whether it's daily supply, whether it's intraday supply in the 60 minute chart, but eventually you'll get nine out of 10 times, they'll get stuffed, right? It's very, very rare that you see a gap and go in a bear market. And that's exactly what we talk about over and over and over ever since the first time we lost a 50 day moving average about eight months ago or nine months ago, whatever the case may be. So coming into today, we saw, you know, my game plan yesterday was straight up everything to the downside. I mean, again, look the way we closed and we woke up today. This is what we were looking at. And true to form on every single gap up and again, we talked about this in nausea. If you've been watching these videos over the last eight, nine months, what happens in a bull market bear market into strength, right? So they slowly but surely they top ticked right at the open and slowly but surely they started coming in, coming in a little bit, nothing crazy, but coming in. And the first two hours of the day, we was sitting there like, oh no, here we go again. Everything's trapped again in the middle of the channels. The only difference was between yesterday and today, the sell-off didn't come into the close. Okay. And that's a very, very important point here. They didn't come into the close. It came at lunchtime. I'll show you this in one second. But the most important part was we started watching the cues gaining strength and all the stocks that gapped up this morning, right? That had some strength this morning, your apples, your Microsofts, your NVIDIAs, so forth and so on. They never made highs and that's the most important part. When you have an ETF and it's made up of a hundred stocks and you look at the leaders, right? The apples, the Microsoft, the Metas, the Amazon, especially Amazon. Amazon was weak the whole day today. We'll get into the pivots in a second. The most important part was they never took out the highs of the day with the cues. And now you're saying these stuff, well, let's see if we can actually get some value at some point through the day. Remember, when you're a trader, your window is only from 9.30. And tome out a trader, not an investor, not a swing trader. When you're an intraday trader, you have a window. Some people like to stretch it out at 2 o'clock. I personally like to believe that your most aggression is between 9.30 at 1 o'clock. That kind of ends the Eastern time zone lunch and then things start to contract. Unlike yesterday's sell-off and the close, today's best value came at lunchtime. It came around 11.30 today. If you guys remember 11.30, we started seeing notable weakness, especially in the cues. All the indexes as well, but especially in the cues. And there was a level there. There was a big line in the sand. And once that big line in the sand happened, this was the reality, right? This is what happened next, right? This was an absolutely phenomenal move. And the most important part was of this move. And congratulations for all you guys in the webinar. We didn't prostitute our money trying to squeeze out longs that weren't there. We didn't deviate from what we've seen, what we are seeing, where we are in a bear cycle. The most important part was we waited, we waited and waited. And when finally everything started to confirm the bottom channels, this was the really, really big result at lunchtime. You had the cues literally losing about five points within about a half an hour, 40 minutes. And where the craziest part about today's day was, pretty much the ETFs, a lot of names, they violated yesterday's low. But instead of closing at the lows, which it looked like it was going about to happen after the 2.30, I logged off around 2.30. Once they violated the lows, ironically today, they kind of rallied, right? They kind of rallied a little bit back, right? Here's the demise into the lunchtime hour, right? Here's the lunchtime hour. And here is the rally into the close. Again, I don't know if I want to use the word rally, but this is kind of the move into the close. They kind of rallied off the top. Now, the question remains is what does that mean going into tomorrow's session, right? And again, we'll get to the pivots in a second. Here's kind of where I'm looking at it. You know, I think any rally, right, any gap up, I think the playbook, and we've been kind of using this playbook for a long time, any playbook and gap ups have to be deemed sell areas, okay? Sell areas into supply, because that's what usually happens 9 out of 10 times. So I think that kind of moves out of the way. That's deemed until we reclaim back the 50-day moving average, which is, you know, which is, what, 30 points away? That's a long, long, long way. So again, this sell bias is going to continue for a while until we start reclaiming the 5-day on the close and still we contain the 10-day and the 20. You can see here all the areas here that orange line keeps on getting rejected. The green line keeps on getting rejected. See, orange, green, orange, right? Same thing over and over and over again. So you have to continue to believe it's a sell side market. Again, nobody's talking about we're going to crash. Again, guys, I understand social media is your only exposure to the trading world. But again, I want to say this pretty clear. Stocks are not going to the moon and they're not going to crash. When you use the word moon and crash, you're screaming at the top of your lungs, you're a novice trader, okay? We get it. You're excited, but we're not crashing when I go into the moon. If a pandemic couldn't get us lower than trust me, we're not going to crash. If the mortgage crisis was absorbed after a couple of years of the economy pretty much crashing and actually going to hell, if that finally didn't knock us down, we're not going to crash. So stop using the word crash. Stocks going lower, stocks going higher. Be a professional, right? It's not like the, you know, it's not, and again, I love football. It's not, you know, Justin Jefferson doing the gritty every single time he gets the ball. That's cool. And that's cute. But you know what else is cute? We're also very cool. Barry Sanders getting into the end zone just handing the ball off into the referee. Be a professional, right? It's pretty obvious when you start screaming, crashing to the moon. Be a professional. If you want to be treated like a professional, you got to act like a professional and deem every single day as an opportunity and a risk parameter based on your own timeframe, your experience level and everything you have to go. Again, you don't need to get emotional. You need to fight in everybody. The market's the market's going to go up. It's going to go down. Whether you think it's going to go up or down, it's kind of irrelevant. It's all about price action. And the price action is kind of really screaming at us where we are. Again, we're not going to go straight down. Okay. That's obvious. We are getting moves, especially aggressive moves after two o'clock. That's why I always try to end my day right around the lunchtime area. So you want to kind of diminish your exposure. Okay. And the biggest exposure is always going to be after two o'clock. Random stuff happens. Market goes up. Market goes down. So you kind of want to stop really getting aggressive after two o'clock. Again, I've been always saying this, whatever you think you like in the afternoon you're going to love in the morning. It's the same setup, just a bigger average true range. So going into tomorrow, again, you have to be sell bias until we start getting a reason and start getting above this 280 level on the cues. It's very, very tough to get excited on the long side. Again, you're still getting a lot of value. And if you look where the biggest violence came today, it wasn't technology. Okay. And this is kind of an important part. It wasn't technology. It was consumer cyclical. So basically all the things you use, all the companies that you pretty much encounter or come across on a daily basis. Right? For all you guys out there, Procter and Gamble, right? Consumer cyclical. So you know, you're shaving, you're shaving cream, Colgate Palmol, right? Your soap, your deodorant, whatever the hell Colgate Palmol makes, right? Estee Lauder makeup, right? Down six points. Makeup. And then look at Coca-Cola, right? Again, these are consumer cyclicals. So these consumer cyclicals start moving lower and continue. Look at me. Look at the wash in these consumer cyclicals. That is, again, another sign. There is a buyer strike. Nobody had to tell us this. We saw Target. We saw Walmart. We saw all these things. We saw everything, right? So this is continuation of the bigger picture sell bias mode that the market is in. Of course, you're going to have days that the market's going to have a dead cat bounce. Yada, yada, yada. Those are the days you try to be very, very light. Because everybody knows dead cats either last for a couple of minutes, a couple of hours, or don't last at all. And that's what I said. So most important part going into tomorrow, look at these groups, right? Start paying attention to these groups. These are the names. And I know there's a lot of technology names that still look crappy, right? Again, like Amazon still looks crappy. It held the bottom of the range here two days in a row. Names, for example, like NVIDIA held the bottom range here. Now three days in a row. Yeah, I'm still watching those. But look at some of these names that haven't really imploded yet. And it kind of goes into the theme of consumer cycle, right? Look at Coca-Cola. What I did today, right? Look at Coca-Cola. Now look at Pepsi's chart, right? Look how close Pepsi is to getting completely annihilated, right? Look at, for example, Archer Daniel Midland, right? They're involved with food. They're involved with the farming, right? The agricultural stuff. Look at that, right? Look at a name like a Dollar Tree, right? Look at Dollar Tree consolidating now for about a month or so. This thing starts taking down its earnings lows. Remember when we talked about the earnings lows plays? Once they close well, the earnings plays what happens? All you have to do is look at names like OKTA, right? Took out the 58, right? Took out the $58 on earnings lows. Went down to 53. Look at a name like AI. Again, we've been talking about this play for a long time, right? AI took out 14. Now it's at 13. So a name like Dollar Tree, if it closes below its earnings low, you're going to see multi-day, maybe even multi-weeks, potential downward draft. So those are the kind of names I definitely want to at least bring to your attention so you can watch. So let's talk about today's pivots. So this was kind of, I put these pivots on to the upside, right? Tesla, NVIDIA and Microsoft, right? Which basically the only one, yeah, it's Tesla. I mean, the video went up about 70, 80 cents, nothing there. Ironically, I actually lost a dollar in Tesla today. Don't ask me how I did to the upside considering it went from 285 to 289. Don't ask me, but I did. So these stocks actually, they didn't do anything, but here's the most important part. Put some upside pivots in case the rally holds. We will be super prepared and that's the most important part, guys. That's the common denominator every single day. You want to be super prepared on both sides of the market. It's not just, oh, futures are up, let's start buying everything. I go, look, just in case, just in case doesn't scream, hey, we're prepared for the long side today. No, that's the whole point. We will be super prepared on last night downside pivots if they pull, stay patient. And that's exactly what happened, right? You know, finally around 1130, the market basically imploded for that 40 minutes. It really did. Q's went down about five. The spies got murdered. So let's talk about the downside pivots. Disney, 98 held three times daily if it builds below can flush, right? Here is Disney. So here's Disney. Again, Dow stock. So it held this 98 level three times today. One, two, three. The third time was the charm. It closed within 40 cents of the lows into the 9580s. Again, if the market continues to go, Disney looks like 92, 93 coming up, right? Big move there. Q's, this was definitely the trade of the day. I'm not a big ETF guy, but this was standing out so clearly because we didn't take out highs. Stocks didn't take out opening range highs. And once this thing just started sitting there on that level, 276, it got hit really, really hard in a 40 minute interval. Definitely, definitely the move of the day, at least for us, at least for me, excuse me. So here's the 276, right? Here's the 276. And look at this implosion. This is on one candle all the way down to 72's. Really, really strong move. And again, it looks much more uglier on the five minute, right? If you look at the five minute chart, look what happened from 276. Look at this move. Looks like destruction of hell broke loose. So really, really nice move there on the Q's. Amazon, 1540, if it builds below, can flush. Again, watch the Q's for a reference. Once the Q's started building, Amazon started building. So here was Amazon. It lost its 1540. You could see the same timeframe. The whole, right? It lost its 1540. Here's the 1540. Really, really nice move into the $13 area. You got a $2.5 move on Amazon in 40 minutes. That's a great, great move, man. Congratulations for you guys who caught that as well. Spies, 363 held three times. Three times. Huge lie in the sand. If it breaks below, it can flush. Look at the spies from the 363 level. Same thing, right? Here's the 363. Excuse me, here's the 363. And look at the wash here on the spies all the way down to 361. Again, this was very, very aggressive pulls. It's a really nice move there. NVIDIA, again, I still really like NVIDIA for the next couple of days. So that's it. I mean, that's it. So the market continues to be very aggressive. Of course it's hard. Just think about it. Life is hard. Why would you think the market would be any different, right? Life is hard. Life is not fair. Market's not fair. So the key is to have a plan, take your research, and wait for that research to confirm. Don't guess. Don't anticipate. You might be wrong. You might be stupid, right? You might be an idiot like me. But the point is, if you're going to stay in business and you want a career of more than five minutes, you got to let everything play out and give you the clearest path to the goal line. Guys, God bless. Stay safe. Stay healthy. Keep smiling. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.