 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good trading week. We'll obviously tackle that in a few minutes. You know, this is coming up the week of Thanksgiving. Okay, at the end of the day, this is what we need to be thankful for. As much as certain people like to click the mouse and all that good stuff and the love affair of trading and all that comes with it, at the end of the day, it's all about family. It's all about love. It's all about being with the people that are most important in your life because at the end of the day, what's the point of doing any of this, right? If it's not all for them. So this is coming up to a shortened week, biggest travel day of the year, travel week of the year. Thanksgiving, we are closed as a Friday session. That's going to be half. Most people are going to be gone. Tuesdays and Wednesday can be a huge, huge travel day. So going into this week, expect a slower week. You're not going to have these massive, massive ranges. It's actually a perfect segue into what we saw last week. But more important, just kind of understand what you are going to be potentially seeing this week. This is the week that you don't want to take a stake in anything. You don't want to prove your manhood, your womanhood. This is the week to kind of see where the action flows. Well, again, talk about that in a few minutes. Understand what's happening and kind of move forward because again, channels will contract. Bull market is intact. But there's a big butt to it. This is the first week that the S&P 500 closed down for the week. Now, before anybody goes nuts, it says, well, what do you talk about who cares, right? You should care. We'll talk about that again in a second. If you look at all the indexes, you saw the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ 100 down about a half to a percent each. Not a big deal. Definitely not a big deal. You saw a Fed come out this week. Talk about all future rate cuts are put on hold until there's a macro picture that's cleaner. Okay, we got that part. This is the first time though, and again, this is where the butt comes in. This is the first time in many, many weeks that we closed below the five day moving average. And not only do we do it once, we did it three times. And what I noticed on Wednesday's session was that this is the first time that any type of China news came out. And this is where if you guys remember, they talked about China said, well, we might not see a deal until 2020, which again, it's only a couple of months away, but they said that. And again, throughout the whole week, you know, you have China saying, well, we're not sure what's happening. And then you see Donald Trump talking about, well, we're encouraged that a deal will get done. My question is, does China know that? Okay, so the sell off that we saw on Wednesday, if you guys remember that sell off before the Fed came, you know, the Dow went down about from up 30 to down 90. And the one thing that I noticed from that first move, right, we never rally back. And that was the first time that I can remember in the last couple of months that we never rallied back. And that day, the Dow went, you know, the Dow went down. If it was 200 or 150, whatever it was, but the most important part was that the index is closed below the five day. Now, again, if you've been watching, if you've been watching just kind of the weekend update, even the videos throughout the week, but if you've been watching me just on the weekends, you kind of know the importance of the five day moving average, a five day moving average. And again, you can look at any chart, you can go literally any chart on your own time and you'll notice the trend, the shortest term trend is the five day moving average. And again, not a lot of people really subscribe to this notion, but I do. I really truly believe this is incredibly important. So one time closing below the five, it's not a big deal. Because if you look at any random part on the chart on the cues, any time they closed below the five day, the next day they got through, they kind of reclaimed it. And what we saw on Wednesday with no really big bounce back, right, you can see they closed right below the five day, we started closing below the five day three days in a row. And again, that's a big deal. That's a big deal. It doesn't become a huge deal until we lose this $200 level. And if you look at the cues of this whole big macro move, there's been monster protection, monster demand on this $200 level. And if you look at the rising demand, you'll see it perfectly here on $200. So again, it's not a big deal yet. It's not a big deal yet. But again, do we really need to rally into the end of the year? We'd like to, right? There's sure no materialistic evidence to tell us we shouldn't. But again, this is a big deal. It's not a huge deal yet, but it's a big deal. And we should really start paying attention because any close, okay, any close now below this $200 area, right? Any close below this $200 area. And again, this is not a point of discussion. Okay, technical analysis is not, you know, it's not a broad stroke. It's either happening or it's not. So it's not a point of an opinion and discussion. It's a materialistic fact. We close below this $200 level and we're going to drop down all the way down to $196. Again, it's not an opinion. This is the way stocks work. This is the way my whole theory of trading pivots works. They trade from channel to channel. And if you believe, and we've been, you know, we've been trading these pivots for years. If you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply, demand to demand. So if they lose this demand zone, we're going to go all the way down to here. So it's again, very, very important area. And what more important, what we started noticing was, you know, Monday and Tuesday were fine. Okay, they were pretty solid days. Wednesday was okay. And the reason why Wednesday was okay, Wednesday was the first day prior to that China news. Okay, we started seeing, if you guys remember in the morning, we started seeing really, really thin bids in offers, right? Especially names like Tesla and Netflix, right? Really, really thin bids and wide, wide spreads. And I noticed I started trading Netflix. I think my first two trades of the day on Wednesday was Netflix. And what I noticed was the move from the sneaky pivots. I kept on missing the moves from the sneaky pivots because they were trading like 50, 60 cents spread-wide, 100 share-lots. And by the time that I actually got into the pivot, okay, around the 306 level, it was so thin that every single time it kept on spiking up 60, 70, 80 cents, the bids would just dry up. And it would take like a Herculean effort just to get out of the trade. Because if you didn't get out of the trade, you know, break even or just try to make a little bit of money, it kept on stalling out. They kept on spreading you down to three points. And I noticed the first time around, if I didn't sell Netflix, you know, with a cup of coffee again, the first time around because of the spreadiness, I noticed, well, first of all, I took down the stock three and a half points, which was very, very aggressive. And I noticed the second time around when they reclaimed that 306 level, when I got in again, they spiked it up again. And again, they confirmed the channel. It was super, super spreading again. And again, I wound up taking a small profit as well. So, and I started looking at all the charts and the charts were fine. It was again, the macro participation. I started seeing the same thing with Tesla. I started seeing the same thing, for example, within the video. And then finally in the video kind of caught a bit and kind of saved my day. And that was that, if you guys remember, if you go back to Wednesday's session, that was that sneaky area above that 209 level that really exploded the stock to 214. So that kind of saved the day, but that was the first day I kind of started seeing that it was just something wrong. And when you look, when I looked at the charts that day, and again, this is where a lot of you guys will kind of agree with me, even if you don't trade with me, you kind of will agree with me that once that Wednesday session passed or kind of in the middle of Wednesday session, we started seeing a huge divergence. We started seeing a lot of strong names and a lot of weak names in the same group at the same time. And the market just kept on going up and down, up and down, up and down. Every single time the stock got stronger, they pulled it. Every single time the stock got weaker, they brought it right back up. Again, I know this because I was trading Roku on Thursday and it was just all over the place. So I started seeing more and more evidence that the market just didn't know what to do. And when the market just doesn't know what to do and they keep on building over and over again on the same level, on the shortest point of reference, you want to start scaling back. The problem with that was we're all human beings, right? We're all human beings. So I did okay on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Thursday came across and I knew this was all going on. And Thursday, I'll tell you this much. I usually trade between two to four, two to five trades a day, okay? Value, it's the same names over and over. Test, again, you don't need to trade a lot of them to catch a really good move as you guys know. By Thursday, okay, because the market was representing strength and weakness at the same time and for whatever reason, my stupidity, okay? Because again, I'm the king of the idiots and my humanity kicks in. It didn't dawn on me by like Thursday, because for some reason Wednesday didn't dawn on me, that we were still building below the five-day moving average. I kept on pushing and pushing and pushing. I wound up trading, no joke, people in the webinar thought I lost my mind. I wound up trading, I put on nine or 10 trades by lunchtime, the same three stocks. Netflix, Tesla, and Roku, and I got nowhere. I got absolutely nowhere and I lost a little bit of money in the day. And the one thing that I kept on noticing over and over and over again, that one time, okay, it's a coincidence, second time it's starting to be a trend and going into Friday's session, I was a lot smarter, okay? I was a lot smarter, I scaled back my activity and only waited for the valley and actually Friday turned out to be a pretty decent day, we'll talk about that in a second. But what I noticed more and more going forward into my career and kind of like passing on what we're seeing is any single time, guys, and again, the word chop, okay, it's not a coincidence. The word chop, and again, everybody has different ways of trading, everybody has different ways of approaching the market and my price, because I gotta get everybody this, there's day traders, there's swingers, there's scalpers, people trade different. So your time horizon is a lot different than mine. So for example, I'm taking a short on Tesla and you love Tesla. Again, I'm not talking to you, okay? You don't need to convince me that your stock in the next six years will be higher, okay? If I'm shorting Amazon, you don't need to try to convince me that I'm wrong, okay? Your opinion versus my time horizon is night and day. It doesn't make a difference to me. But what I noticed and what I noticed when people start talking about the word chop, the word chop is almost equal to the word divergence, okay? And the chop happens when the macro universe doesn't know what it wants to do. Especially when you're coming from a linear market that needs a desperate rest. Again, this is not an opinion. This is not speaking from a bearish point of view. not an opinion. This is not speaking from a bearish point of view. I trade both sides of the market. I'm an equal opportunist. Okay. But when you see the market coming off a linear linear move up, that's exactly what we saw from October all the way to you can make a case all the way to Tuesday, right? So last Tuesday, and it starts to kind of get heavy and you see the stocks that led the brigade up the apples, right? The apples, the Netflix is the test of the world. When you start seeing them get tired, they're not resting. Okay. They already had their moves. Again, look at look at Apple's chart, right? Apple has just gone from 220, right? 220 to 268. It's not resting. It's tired. It desperately needs to pull back to certain levels. And again, if you see a visual, okay, just the visual, you kind of know, right? Ever see this rising support? You kind of know where Apple needs to go just to kind of reset. Again, where it goes after the reset is a whole different story. It could hold and go back higher. It could, you know, it could start breaking down, but it needs a reset. So when you start looking at Apple and you start looking at Tesla, again, Tesla might be a completely different thing. And by the way, okay, I love Tesla. Okay. Everybody knows I love Tesla. I love trading Tesla long, short. I love the car, right? I love the car. Everybody. I love Tesla. But that damn thing that they introduced Thursday. I'm sorry. That was hideous. That was hideous. The whole event was was bombed. There was a crack windshield on the design alone. Okay. I thought the stock could have been down 100. I mean, that it was the ugliest thing. It was like 30, 40 grand for this thing. Okay. I don't know if Elon Musk is smoking dust. And I love you, Elon. Okay. I love you, Elon. Don't go away. Keep doing what you're doing, baby. But boy, oh boy, that was on. He was on angel dust. Whoever approved that that that design on Tesla. But again, the point is not what happened to Tesla. The point is kind of what was happening prior. You could see going into the vet. You see this rounding top going on. So when you use, when you see the word shop, right, when you use the word shop, please understand it's not just affecting you. It's affecting the whole macro universe of stocks. And when you start seeing that guys, the last thing you want to do is keep pushing, you keep pushing, keep pushing. And there's no more evident group on these beta names because usually beta trades as a tribe. When Facebook is strong, that means Amazon is strong, that means Netflix is strong, that means Tesla is strong and Facebook and Apple and everything else. When the Apple gets weak and Netflix is weak, but Alibaba gets strong and Facebook gets strong and Amazon's all over the place, which by the way, it really needs to start waking up soon. And actually could we'll get to that in a second. But the point is when you start seeing a big disconnect in these stocks and these stocks represents speculation money, okay, you are going to fall into the chop. So when you look at the final scoreboard at the end of the week and you notice that, well, that's some piece slipped the first time in six weeks and you know, everything was down about a half a percent. And you turn around and say, who cares, right? It's just the rest. Maybe it is. Maybe it's not. But again, we're not in the guessing business. We're waiting for more evidence. So kind of understanding that information going into this week that we are now three days below the five day, two days now below the 10. And there's a very, very strong possibility. Again, we could slide down gracefully. Nobody's even going to notice into the rise in support or we could get another aggressive pull and could start another magnificent wash into this 196 area. Again, before we put the cart in front of the horse, we need to understand, let it happen, let the market dictate that this is actually happening instead of forecasting and jumping in the gun and losing control of ourselves and start trading price action that's not there. So going into this new week, understand it's a short week. Most traders are going to be off. The traders there are going to be to trading. Remember going at the last week, right? Remember this past week, choppy, choppy, choppy, disconnect, disconnect, disconnect, right? It's not going to get better. It's only going to magnify when there's going to be smaller value and less participants. So yes, is there going to be value going into this week? Absolutely. We are still quote unquote in a bull market. Again, I don't believe the word bull and bear exists. I only see value. Okay, that's that's for me. I only see value and I trade on value. There's no value. I'm going to scale back. Like on Thursday, I was all over the place. I traded nine, 10 stocks, nine, 10 times, same three stocks. And I got no one. Okay, I traded Friday under control. I traded real quick twice, once to the short side, once to the long side, got some good value. Okay, you kind of wrote off to sunset kind of to decompress. But the most important part is understand that we are human, we're all going to mess up. But when you see choppiness and disconnect, that's the time to scale back not to try to make your week or make your month or whatever the case may be. So let's talk about Friday. Okay, there was actually pretty good value. Okay, there was actually pretty good value. We had to wait for it. You really had to wait for it. And if you look at Friday session, a couple of things happen. Number one, again, we don't care which way the pivot is going to go. We had a pivot to the short side of Disney, we have a pivot to the long side of Disney, one of them confirmed, you guess which one confirmed, right? So again, we're not biased, we don't care about, you know, we don't care about what's going on. But again, the most important thing is to wait, not to anticipate, not to put on your money ahead of the pivot, ahead of the confirmation, just wait. So Disney, right? So Disney, two days in a row, couldn't rally, kept on holding that 146 area. Obviously, not got, didn't get there. We'll talk about the pivot to the upside, which is a really good one. Netflix got hit again pre market and Netflix was a very, was was pretty good action this week. We caught that really good move from that 306 area when it exploded. Okay, we caught that move in the middle of the week. But then towards the end of the week, you got a little choppy. So the market got, you know, the market swept the market really started hitting the stock pre market. And again, was it because of Disney again? Probably but how many times and again, this was actually answered, how many times can Netflix go down on the same news, right? And the one thing that Netflix did was and again, the news was I don't see any news, watch possible read the green for experienced traders note that this is not a pivot only momentum obviously needs to reclaim 313. So what I like what I saw about Netflix, and this is kind of what I like going into this new week, it reclaim it went down to like 304, right went down to like 304. What I liked what it did was it reclaim the earnings hot. If you guys remember it reclaim the earnings hive in the previous day, that's where it broke out from 309 to 313 area. I like that it reclaimed that the buyers completely engulfed that Disney news, a potential Disney news subscribers, all that stuff. And it closed up not only above the five day moving average, it closed above the earnings highs. So I still like earn I still like Netflix going to this week. I think if it starts reclaiming this 313 area, I think there's a shot man as long as the market isn't implode. I think there's a punch a shot this thing gets a 320 so we're definitely watching Netflix this week. Facebook tons of coal buyers right tons of coal buyers we saw this whole week. We saw the 200s the 205s the 207 and a halfs going into the next year we saw the 220 somebody's very, very bullish into Facebook. And again, you could see the Facebook chart again didn't trigger obviously, but you can see how important this whole 220 level is any any close to any close over 200. It should start moving higher. So again, very, very good price action on certain names. You can again anytime stock was like Netflix, the gates bad news and the gates the same headline over and over and over means the sellers are tired and the buyers are in control. So all we needs now is confirmation. But again, you can see the same thing happening with Facebook, Amazon. So Amazon never triggered to the downside. But if you guys notice Amazon's chart for the last probably for the last month, right, it just can't get out of its own way. We finally saw a bottom, in my opinion, on Friday on Amazon. Okay, not again, my opinion means absolutely nothing. It could confirm back down to the downside of zero. You can point. But what I started seeing on Friday were two things. Number one, we have Black Friday coming up, right? Everybody is making bets ahead of time on Amazon. You have Cyber Monday coming. So again, who's going to benefit the most from it's obviously Amazon, right? What do we started seeing on Friday was some pretty big bets in the options market. There was over $2 million dollars. It's probably more than that, but there was over $2 million worth of bets. I believe it was the December, I believe it was the December 18, 1850s, I believe it was the 1850s. Actually, if I go on my, if I go on my Twitter account, Amazon, yeah, so there was over, it was over $2 million. So there was over $2 million dollars bet on the actually, excuse me, it was the February. Okay, it was the February 1840 calls. Okay, it was 1840 calls. So they started, they started, you know, really betting, they started really betting on Amazon, towards the bottom of the channel, okay, towards the bottom of the channel. And what I like, what I saw, what I liked what I saw about Amazon, it really firmed up, okay, really firmed up to the end of the week. The problem is there's really, there's not really a great entry. Okay, you can make a case that, you know, if it starts reclaiming 1749 1750, right, but there's more supply 1753 1755, reclaims 1755 56, then you know, there's, there's more areas here 1762 can get to 65. So you can see, if you're entering Amazon this week, right, you're going to need a really big gap up to succeed. Because again, there's no such things as guarantees anything. And if you get if you believe in the theory of stocks go from supply to supply and demand and man, you could see 1817 5017 53 then gets rejected 1758 and gets rejected 1762, maybe goes to 1765 and gets rejected. So there's no clean pocket. This is the only stock out there on all the beta names. There's not a clean pocket. So but again, those 1840 calls came in over $2 million worth of bets. And I'm probably, I'm probably, probably right in saying this that wasn't mom and pop sitting on their porch from in Wichita, Kansas is betting $2 million on Amazon. And again, we see that type of price action or at least that type of money flow. They are probably not uncertain of which way the trade is going to go. So that was that Roku obviously never got down to the 154 level. Alibaba started to build Alibaba started to build off the 86 20. Well, you know, went to like 87 again, not a big move on Alibaba again, you could actually just tell how tight these channels are. That's why the whole thing the word chop comes into play. That's my whole point. We just talked about the last 15 minutes or so. Google 1315 needs to build. Here's the Google chart, right? Here's the Google chart. Again, you just couldn't get above it, right? Couldn't get above it. And now you see a very specific channel. You have 1350 to the upside. And now you have 1288 to the downside, something has to give. And again, if the market pulls, again, you could clearly see how clean these pockets are to the downside. A lot of congestion to the upside. A lot of clean moves to the downside. So again, 17, you know, right 1288 to 1256, right? 1315 to 1332. Again, you don't need to guess anymore. Here's your top channel. Here's your bottom channel. One of these things need to confirm. Boeing, right? Boeing, you know, it's a bitch of a stock to trade. But you know, and this thing gets going, this thing gets going. It finally put in a new base of 13371, right? So here's Boeing, right? It finally put in a base of 1371, excuse me, 371. It really should go, you know, it really, really should go and test this. The next big area here is 376 for a possible move to 380. But this stock is just literally all over the place. The only good thing about the bull cases, as long as it stays about 365, you're good. Once it starts closing below 365, you got a problem. But again, first close over 371. Again, this is your thing. This is your thing. It's just too hard of a trade, at least for me. Square didn't do anything. Shop didn't do anything, just never, never confirmed. Disney, Disney finally exploded. If you have little girls, or even little boys, my daughter is going to see at some point tonight frozen Disney. Again, Disney, here was the sneaky pivot on entry, right? Here was the sneaky pivot. We talked about 47, 4760 area and it exploded. You know, it throws in part two. It's supposed to be good, right? It's supposed to be good. Let it go, right? Let it go. Let it go, right? So they let it go. They let it go. Stock went to 49.5, big, big move on Disney. ULTI is still like to the downside, never confirmed. NVIDIA, you know, NVIDIA needs a new base. NVIDIA needs a new base. They never got there. NET was from the watch list. NET was from the watch list 1750, 1760. You know, ran up, you know, ran up to about the 18 bucks. I still like it on a reclaim to 18. You can see the daily chart there. Let's see what else. Let's see what else. Roku, Roku was good. Roku was good. So I traded Roku, I traded Roku on Friday, but down from the short side and to the long side. Here was the first one. Again, the reason I say pro traders, when the stock is coming off the top, it's going to be the short side. It would be the certain trades. They're just not for everybody. So I started shorting Roku. Pretty good aggressive flush. One down to like 154 and change. I covered two thirds. Once they held that 154, again, I covered two thirds. The rest broke even, which is good. Again, you always want to use a break even as your stops. That's your runner. So that was good. Obviously take on the way down. Disney take on the way up. So Tesla had some issues, right? Tesla had some issues. 34, 70, 35, it just really couldn't get that big momentum. They try to get it up a couple of times. They got it above 334, 70, 335 numerous times. Traded it to like 35, 60s. A lot of sellers there. I kind of, I want to watch it on both sides on Monday, but there was a lot of sellers there. Again, 154 and Roku continues to be the huge number going forward to the downside. But here was the pivot, right? Here was the pivot to the upside, which was a really nice scalp towards the end of the day. 158, 80, 159 needs to build. Again, towards the end of the day, you're just looking for cashflow. So here was the pivot towards the end of the day. This was actually a great call by, I think it was Philip in the room. I wasn't even watching this until he called it out. And he said, yeah, there's a sneaky pivot there. So we got along right here. Nice scalp here. It went from the 5870s all the way up to the 5970s. Again, a dollar move in the afternoon is very, very rare, especially a contracting channel. So thank you very much again. Appreciate Philip for the color there. So good job there. So again, it was a nice move to the downside, right? So here was the pivot. Here was the pivot to the downside, the 5570s, right to rising support. And here was a sneaky pivot to the upside. Again, what's great about pivots is you can trade these stocks to the long side, to the short side. There is no bias. We're just waiting for confirmation and a sentiment to confirm. Roku again takes sales. Here comes the 160s, which kind of never got there. Here was a pivot towards the end of the day on Tesla. Not a big pivot. It will only work for like a dollar and change. But Tesla 333 support, if it builds can flush. Again, here was Tesla. Okay, you don't need to, we're not shorting the bottoms and buying the tops. We're looking for the meat, right? That's what she said. Right? So here was the candle right over here, 333. That was a sneaky pivot. And again, went down to like 331 and change, 331 80s. Again, is it the biggest trade in the world? No, but again, the afternoons, the same trade that you'll get in the mornings for $2, $3, $4 of major potential, you probably get into the 50 cents or a dollar in the afternoon. So again, you have to kind of curb your expectations for the afternoon. But a 50 cents a dollar move just for cash flow towards the afternoon, especially towards the end of the week on Friday is pretty good. It's actually pretty good again for anybody who trades in the afternoon. So again, short week, okay, short week, lighter volume. I think we're going to get some value. Okay, I think Netflix is still good. I'm waiting for Facebook to confirm. I can't believe I'm even saying that, but I am. I'm watching Tesla both sides. Again, look, can Tesla keep going lower? Of course it could. Look at the channeling, right? Of course it would go lower. Again, if he reclaims the top of the channel, it's going to go higher. If it confirms the bottom of the channel, it's going to go lower. So there will be value there. But again, the most important thing, guys, just stay patient. You don't need to trade every day. For all your option players, you guys need channels to expand. Okay, you can't trade in a contracting cycle. So if you're an options trader, where's your biggest value towards the end of the week, right? Because that's where the biggest bets for speculation, especially the weeklies, will get put on the line, right? So you have a much better potential to make money on expanding cycles on Thursday and Friday than you do Tuesday and Wednesday because that's the middle of the week. So again, you don't need to trade every day. Okay, just wait for your opportunities, understand your measure potential. And once it confirms, that's where you strike with extreme prejudice. Guys have an awesome week. Happy things giving everybody. I love you all. God bless. And I'll see you on the field. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS 60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.