 So, I work as a futurist. Many of you may wonder what a futurist is. I wonder about that myself sometimes. A futurist is not somebody that's going to predict what happens. I mean, that's obviously not possible, right? But what we do is we specialize in foresight, which means that we help people understand what's coming and bring that forward. So usually at the next three to five year level, who run businesses have a very hard time looking beyond what's coming next week or next month because they're operational, right? And so what we do is we try to bring stuff that's quite obvious, but most people don't have time to look at. While I was listening to the last speaker, I was thinking of the whole time, basically, I think this concept of selling things in channels, multi-channel selling has a big flaw, of course, and the flaw is the channel itself, right? I mean, we're not living our lives in channels. This is sort of a way of looking at selling at some sort of mousetrap. So we devise better mousetraps when we have better channels. I think the basic thing that's happening now in a networked society in the digital world is that we are actually getting away from this idea of being trapped in something. This is a very big issue, I think, across business, and I did a lot of work in media in the past, is that the issue of control was a huge issue. How do you control what people are doing? Where they are going, what they're buying, what they are able to buy, and so on, right? And on the internet, it's basically, if you're looking at mobile devices, not necessarily the iPhone, but this is a device of uncontrol and it gives the control to the other party. So I worked in the music business for a long time as a producer, but also later on as helping them to understand the web. This device, of course, puts the fear of God into media companies, right? Because basically, the consumer gets all the power here, right? You can go in the store, scan the barcode, compare the price, right? I mean, that is basically, you know, for people running the store, that's not good news. You can go online, download anything you want, any movie, and you can listen to anything you want and watch anything you want on YouTube for free. So why do you need cable TV? I mean, in the end, it's rapid consumer empowerment. So that's a very big issue, a huge opportunity. But we have to get away from this idea of saying that we're going to control what the user does or my business partners do, right? It's much more about trust. When you're running your companies on a daily basis to free up your staff to spend 5% of their time on this job. Because the problem is, if we don't develop four sides, we're always behind. And now the speed of the web, you know, the speed of development is so dramatically quicker. Now, I used to work a lot for car companies and they made a new car every five years and then I made a new car every three years and now development cycle is 14 months. I mean, the speed of development, if we don't have four sides, it's going to be impossible to do. By the way, if you're on Twitter, here's my Twitter handle, G Leonhardt. If you haven't tried Twitter, you should. I'll explain later why that is a very good exercise in understanding what's happening. These are some of my clients that you can see here. So we work with hundreds of companies, essentially all in technology, communications and media. So this is an interesting slide I want to share with you because it kind of shares the kind of world that we're in now. This world is a noisy. It's chaotic. It has many opinions. It has all things happening at the same time. Marshall McLuhan, which was one of the original futurists in media, he said in 1971, the global village. I mean, this is what we have now. And the global village is not a place of peace, harmony and quiet. It's not. I mean, clearly when we have five billion people connected to the Internet, we're going to disagree on a lot of things. There's going to be lots of debate and lots of questions. I mean, it can't obviously be in a connected system. You have more discussions. So we have an interconnected world, what I call the network society. And Ray Kurzweil, who is the founder of the Singularity Movement in the US, he says, a kid in Africa with a smartphone has more information than the president of the United States 15 years ago. Now think about this five years from now. A person with a smartphone is going to have not just the information, right, but will have the comparison of all your offerings, will have your track record, will look at what you stand for, what mistakes you've made, the entire history of what you do is and will be available. Education. I don't know if you're in the education business, but you can learn anything you want in five years by going to an online place where you can study and get an MBA or something like an MBA. You can already do that, right? But it's going to actually work then. So think about what that will do to a lot of our society and the changes that we're going to see there. We're now living in this world and many of us, you know, I'm 50 years old, and for many of us this is actually a pretty hard development because we don't like to be part of a link system, right? We like to be the link in the middle, right? We like to be the link where people come to, right? Because we're experts in authorities and so on and so on. So if you're looking at telecom companies or ISPs and operators or media companies, right, they're not operating like this, right? They are the big link in the middle. If you are the big link in the middle, you are in deep trouble, right? Because basically what happens now is that everybody's looking to decentralize. So now you have to have a dual strategy. You have to be powerful and the person in the middle, but you also have to develop this, which is a networked business scenario, and that's actually quite difficult to do. So looking at the issue of, you know, multi-channel retailing and selling, you know, I think we need to look a little bit deeper, right? I don't think it will do a whole lot to look at marginal improvements, how we can be a little bit faster or better with this, right? Because clearly, things are going to move so quickly that we need to think a little bit beyond this. And Marshall McLuhan, as I was saying earlier, he mentioned basically a key word and that is the world of the global village, right? The global village is not a place to where you would go and he would say, always to people, buy, buy, buy, now you can buy a click here, right? I mean, this message is not really a communal message, right? It's a commercial message. So what do you do about this? I mean, how do you think about this? And Marshall McLuhan says it's the framework that changes not the picture, right? So if you're going to look at the mobile phone, at social media, at video, at location-based services, as better mouse traps, as better way to sell cheaper, right? Then you're looking essentially at the frame. You're looking at the picture, but not at the overall framework. You have to look at the framework. So there's something to think about while I speak, is that if you're looking at a world like this to where people are going to use mobile phones to scan things, like using a quick response code, you may have seen this commercial, it dramatically changes the social behavior of people when this is available, right? So I mean, it's obviously kind of strange to do this for a lot of people because it's not really that well integrated yet. But for example, in Japan, when you go to a date, you can go to a bar where you can scan the face of the person that you're talking to and the software will recognize who it is and will essentially let you make a social connection. You can find out the profile superimposed over the mobile phone while you're talking, right? So you can see this person likes dogs. You don't like dogs. You don't keep talking. You don't want a girlfriend with a likes dog. You move on to the next person. So it's completely transparent, which is a really strange experience. I tried it myself. Anyway, Henry Jenkins, who's a person at MIT, says something very important. It's really not about technology. It's about emerging cultural practices. What do people do? And how do they do it? It's not about the fact that we have a mobile phone. It's about what we actually do with it. Many of you may be using TripAdvisor. Anybody know TripAdvisor? Yeah? Anybody? Yeah, okay. Of course, LinkedIn and those kind of things we know, right? But TripAdvisor, for example, is a great example of the habit change. So for example, in Germany, when I go to a restaurant and I put my iPhone on the table and I pull out the TripAdvisor app and I just put it on the table, okay? In many places that I go to, they see that I have TripAdvisor loaded on the table. I will get better service because they know that the moment something goes wrong, I'll just go like this and I'll say, TripAdvisor, really bad service, right? They know that I have the power to rate them. In America, almost every single doctor is now rated by a website called ratemds.com, right? Where you can go in and say, okay, this didn't get the right help and so on. Is that good or is it bad? I don't know. Sometimes it's actually bad because I may be wrong. TripAdvisor could be wrong, right? But just two days ago, the Encyclopedia of Britannica went out of print and said, we're no longer going to publish the Britannica. You guys may know the Britannica, which was the one point, the number one resource for colleges where you can look up stuff, right? So Wikipedia came along and now there have been many tests about this, right? So basically the reality is that Wikipedia is pretty much as accurate as the Britannica, right? But of course it's online and it's free and it's made by people who, for whatever reason, contribute to it. So now the Britannica has stopped printing. And guess what the CEO of the Britannica said when he announced that they're going to stop printing, right? He announced that he believes still that the Britannica is infinitely more accurate than Wikipedia and he doesn't understand why people aren't buying it anymore. That's what he said. So, you know, that's an interesting angle. I think we need to think beyond this sort of obvious scenario of what people are actually going to do in cultural practices. So I pulled up a few numbers here from Poland. You may, of course, know this better than I do. I'm not an expert on Poland. But in terms of the share of online sales in Poland, it's only 3%. But as the number goes below, it has grown a lot in the last few years. It's not up to the numbers of Switzerland or Germany, which is 9% or UK, 12%, right? So it's fairly low. I think you're in an extreme period of growth. I mean, that's partly why you're here. I'm sure that this is finally happening, if you see what's happening with advertising, that's growing a lot, if you believe those numbers. The businesses that are using online e-commerce, you know, finance, telecoms, automotive, clearly that's an interesting start there. In terms of top 10 countries, this is from 2009. This is kind of old information, but it's, you know, Poland has a way to go in terms of internet connectivity. This is just now happening, I understand, with LTE and companies pushing mobile connectivity. So for a while, of course, for quite some time, Poland has been below the EU average in connectivity. And I think this is something that I think would be one of the first concerns if I was to think about the future there. In many ways, of course, the telcos and ISPs and operators could be your best friends in creating more connectivity so you can reach people better. I mean, if you see what happened in America, is that Amazon sells more books on the Kindle than in print. And I think about the benefit of that, not just for the trees, but also for Amazon and for the other retailers. So connectivity leads to that sort of progress. That's why I think governments have to be aware of all these things. The CEO of Woolworth said just a few weeks ago, he said basically that the entire business, Woolworth is the biggest retailer in the world, I think, pretty much, will be multi-optional, multi-platform, multi-channel by 2015, and 100% of turnover will emanate from the multi-option channel. So basically multi-option, multi-channel retail becomes a standard. And I think that's something that we can easily imagine what that would look like. So if you're looking at this stat here about social networking, you can see that social networking here in Poland is actually quite popular in the middle there. Many of you are on Facebook and of course LinkedIn and so on. Is that in the end, social networking may become the reason for commerce. And this is an interesting angle is that we thought of social networking as a bunch of kids exchanging dates or recipes for cooking or whatever. But now social networking is becoming a major driver of business. I mean, when Facebook goes public this year, this will be the biggest IPO, probably in the last 20 years, fetching an estimated $100 billion. They have 1 billion users which is more than any broadcaster, any TV station, any network in the world. It's the second largest country in the world. China, only China is bigger. And Facebook could very easily get to 2 billion users which is one third right now of the global population in a year or so. And they have the best possible data about us, which is a scary thought. There's more data about us in the FBI. So they can see basically social networking becomes a major driver of commerce because clearly, A, they have the data. They know a lot. We give them lots of data. We kind of trust them at least for the most part. And this is why Amazon is getting into social networking. So you can use Amazon to exchange social information. For example, the books that you read. You can share the highlights that you've marked on Amazon. So other people can say, well, this guy reads lots of books. He must be a great guy or whatever. There's a social purpose. So I would say that every purpose of selling in the future will have intersections with social things. What's called, of course, social commerce. And it's really always been that way because when you consider that before the internet we purchased things primarily because of word of mouth. Somebody else told us it was good and so then we bought it. But now because of the internet it becomes an extremely viral situation where we click and we buy things. So Facebook is working on a scenario, for example, that will surely scare you, called Facebook credits. It's Facebook money. And many people are arguing that Facebook currency will be more important than the US dollar. Some people would perceive this as fiction. But when you hit the like button on Facebook, I don't know if you've actually done this, but nothing much happens. You just like things. It's not a problem. But when you hit the like button it is possible, for example, for people to say, well, if I have an account on Facebook and I put in five euros a year every time I hit the like button if it's a blogger or a film producer or a band or an artist they get a tiny piece of the five euros that I have in my funds. And so now newspapers are saying what happens here if people like the newspaper we give them extra stuff to read on Facebook. But they give me a tiny fraction of this like of the five euros per year. But if two billion people do it in 10 cents each that's interesting. And now you're starting to see people selling on Facebook. Delta Airlines, you can buy tickets from Delta Airlines on Facebook. You don't have to leave Facebook. You buy the ticket there. You can watch Al Jazeera on Facebook. Don't have to go anywhere else. So, I mean, clearly Facebook is becoming a vehicle sort of a highway for selling. And I would encourage you to investigate this because if one thing is for sure Facebook is not going the way of my space. Facebook is a highway now. Facebook is becoming the next Google and probably better or worse depends how you look at it. Now IBM says we're entering the era of social business. And of course IBM is very interested in this because they have many software tools and suites that they can sell along with this. But here's the bottom line. If you're an A-social company if you don't care about your customers, your providers, your users, your clients, your business partners you can't do social business because basically what that means is a disconnect between who you are and what you want to be. If you're looking in your marketing, like many of us used to do because basically marketing is not always the reality, right? It's what we want to be the reality, right? It comes out. So Ford in America, two years ago launched a Ford Fiesta which is a small car from Ford, right? And Ford said how do we do this? How do we get this car out there because people don't like small cars in America like big cars, right? Gas is too expensive. But anyway, they went out and said here's an idea as what the ad agency said. Let's give away 100 Ford Fiestas for free. All you have to do is make a video, one video a month how you're in the car doing something talking about the car. That's the only thing. So for two years you have to make one video a month and we give the car away and you can keep it, right? So you know what the CEO of Ford said? He said this is a good idea what if they say something bad? Our car is not that, the car is not so great. I mean he knew that Ford Fiesta is not a good car, right? So he didn't want to take the rest but they argued about it for half a year and then finally said okay let's do it. So they gave away 100 cars and they got off 10,000 of videos only one single video was bad even though the car is bad. Of course you get it for free which makes you more an armored with this, right? But they gave the customer the control to say you know this is really bad, don't buy it even I give it back and so back I would give it back, right? Imagine a disaster for a company like this, right? So what it teaches us that social business has to do with being a company that can actually do this, right? I mean if you're going to be an e-commerce in this way I think you have to also consider the implications of it, right? I think we can safely say and especially here in Poland because this is the fast-moving market and you're right in between the boring and stagnating Europeans which is not much is going to happen in Switzerland that really will change the world, I don't think but in five years nothing is going to be like it is today and this is a real challenge because how can we anticipate this and take advantage of it? I mean take for example Audi. Audi is putting money into all kinds of things including building wind turbines for wind energy that are based on the same technologies in the car but also in getting to the apps business so if you have an Audi A8 the car is connected to the internet, right? You can download an app that makes the dashboard look like Batman it's software, right? So they're an app maker now they're also investing one-tenth of their money into a self-driving car a car that drives itself without you driving it, you just sit in it Why would a car company do this? Because clearly they know, A, people will share cars in the future because cars would have got too expensive and it would be too hard to drive them in cities they know that people will work and live inside the car and work inside the car so they need apps, right? They know that in the future self-driving cars are going to be for sure everywhere because that's quite clear when you look at the facts so a bit of planning in the future is to look at the obvious things that are happening and then work our way towards it because it will be nothing like today Here's an example if you're in the business of selling stuff people invent things that really change how we sell this is a guy, Dean Cayman who's an inventor in San Francisco where I used to live and Dean invents things every day but this thing that he has invented is mind boggling because what it does it's called the slingshot and the slingshot creates a thousand liters of water per day from any source of water that you put into it so it could be junk water from the factory it could have rats in it, whatever it doesn't matter not radioactive but pretty much anything else it vaporizes the water and makes a thousand liters of clean water a day for any source and it uses very little energy and this is production quality stuff now he's gotten twenty million dollars from the expires foundation and guess who's the company who invested in his thing now take a wild guess Coca-Cola Coke because if this takes off and then I put this machine into Africa and they're going to buy five hundred thousand of these machines bottled water business is toast why would you need bottled water? I mean of course Africans don't buy bottled water anyways but they drill to find water but this is going to change the way that they do business so if you look at e-commerce what are those slingshots what are those things that are going to happen in the next five years that will radically change how this works and I think social media is one of those social media is clearly going to be the next thing in selling in parenthesis except for the fact that we can't control the social party it's like going to a dinner party and saying okay guys tonight we're going to have dinner together we're all going to talk about this topic and nothing else you wouldn't be very popular at the dinner party that is the difference of course you can't call the shots in this way there so I think the bottom line is basically we have a couple of simple summaries on this topic I want to put forth so first of all we're entering what I call the conversation economy a lot of people want to talk before they buy this is a great thing about Amazon I mean Amazon I go there to talk in a way because I'm sharing what I buy they talk back to me and say if you buy this and you buy that and so on it's a conversation this is the reason why you should be trying Twitter because what happens there is you have conversations and they talk about your stuff already just go to search.twitter.com put in the product of your company you'll find out what people are saying my point would be if you're not in the conversation with your whether it's B2B or B2C it doesn't matter if you're not in the conversation you won't be there at all because they won't care I mean I'm not buying anything I'm not doing any banking with I'm not buying airline tickets I'm not buying a car from a company I'm not worried about who they are and what they believe in and what they do I don't so EasyJet goes to Warsaw EasyJet started flying here and the founder of EasyJet I've met several times, Stelios he's the guy with the tankers I love EasyJet for what they've done to the airline business but the boarding process it's like a bunch of cows being put to the slaughterhouse so I Twitter about this all the time to avoid flying EasyJet but for that reason not for the flying so I Twitter about this all the time and every time I Twitter something within 10 minutes I have a tweet back from Stelios saying you're always saying this so what is it, can you show me some photos and I send photos to Twitter to show what's going on in the boarding process because once you're on board people are nice and it's cool at board but to get on board is a nightmare so these guys are having a conversation and this is why I'm still flying with them even though I hate the boarding process because they're trying they're having a conversation the other thing in commerce that we can see clearly the successful commerce companies that we see around the world that goes for Zappos in America or eBay or Amazon or many others they're allowing us to have an interaction before a transaction we can watch a video we can look at the ratings we can interact, we can actually be comfortable so I think you said it in your opening speech the primary driver of business today is trust it's not the price I mean price is very important clearly but I can't tell you how many clients I have that are selling their stuff despite the fact that it's a lot more expensive than the competitors so it's about trust, I mean trust is the currency so when you're looking at multi-channel retailing you have to say okay multi-channel trust substitute the word retailing how do you build trust with people where you have to obviously be more transparent and be more open then we have this idea of peer-to-peer sales just like we share music online or used to before it became illegal we still do but no argument there just like we shared cool movies on YouTube now people are saying to each other I just bought XYZ I mean you've seen the tweets you've seen the Facebook things people are talking about what they've purchased that's better it can't be any better than that people recommending things and we're going to go to an extreme economy of conversation and interaction so in five years people won't buy anything unless somebody else has recommended it in some explicit way and endorsed it so if you're not part of the conversation you're just not part of anything you're just not going to be there for the transaction and that goes for the fact that if you're buying 100,000 kilos of chemicals or whether you're buying a car in eBay it goes for both I mean why is the reason for example in Switzerland people use Facebook to buy cars but they don't use eBay what is the reason because when you go on Facebook in Switzerland and you see somebody selling his car you can see his profile the person is real I mean Facebook real at least but you can look at his friends you can see at his latest post that he's not a complete idiot or somebody who's going to try to rip you off who lives in Shanghai like you have on eBay it's somewhat more real it's more trust so if you want to sell more stuff you have to create more trust as simple as that that is the first step more science what's referred to as big data you would not believe the amount of data or you probably would because you're in that business the amount of data that exists about what people do online I mean this is referred to commonly now as big data everywhere we go we say yes we like it we send a video we sign up we log in with different things and the social networks have become masters of this data is the new oil this is basically that's been said for years but now it's actually true because if you can get the data from your customers and they'll let you use it it's a gold mine for matching them with other things and for finding out what they think for doing R&D for selling them off to other people if they allow it I mean data becomes the driving factor why do you think all the rich companies on the internet Google's valuation surpasses all of the top 5 media companies put together and they don't make anything what do they do they take our data and we give it to them I mean if you use Gmail many of you use Gmail I'm sure it's very popular around the world they read your email literally I mean people and machines read your email to make those tiny ads those ads are so good because they have the entire history of my 400 gig of email to give me cool ads so when I come here and I'm saying I'm coming here to this hotel as you know what there's a cheaper hotel it's better it's very close it's in my email so quite scary but data is the new oil and basically whatever data you can get from your users that is worth giving away stuff for free I mean this is the philosophy of course of many companies on the internet Skype for example giving you free stuff in return you have the client running which allows people to have phone calls this is what's happening on Skype if we were an online with a Skype client the other guys couldn't make the phone call because it's a peer to peer system so these kind of things are going to happen much more in the future I think ultimately we're looking at all these things your multi-channel becomes the default I already said and this is something that is going to be not news for you but something we have to face now basically this is the Google paradigm doing stuff and inventing stuff puts in the permanent beta phase we're always in the trying phase and something very un-German to say is that basically it's speed over perfection I mean not when you make airline engines it has to be perfect obviously but this is a very big change we have to invent a lot more stuff Google's paradigm is if you're an engineer you have to spend 20% of your time on inventing something else otherwise you get fired if you don't take 20% off and come up with ideas that lose money you get fired so speed over perfection and actually trying stuff is absolutely crucial because in this market in Poland clearly you can see by the stats I showed earlier it's been slow going for a while but you've reached a takeoff point now and the telcos and the ISPs will play a couple of months ago clearly they want to wire up every single person in Poland to get on the mobile internet and it's going to happen so the question is will you be ready for that when it does happen because at that point there'll be many other people essentially the mobile environment is going to really change how we buy and how we exchange information and basically the entire world will be on an IS at any given moment and this is not bad news it's great news for people who are selling except for if they're lying I mean you're going to have to just create more value to attract more customers looking at the mobile B2B revolution you see clearly people are all going online and doing data stuff and this is an understatement from Cisco from last year you can see people are connecting and doing these things when it becomes so easier I gave my mother an iPad she's 75 years old of course she doesn't know what an Apple has on an iPad or what the internet is for that matter but she wanted to go on eBay to look for stuff so well you don't have a computer you can't go on eBay so I gave her an iPad I connected her to the internet now what she does with the iPad guess what she does with the iPad now she watches television she thinks this is the TV I'm not joking for her she lies in bed and on the app that I installed as long as the internet is working it's the TV when things become this easy this will explode and when things become cheap the iPad is vastly expensive but you know it only costs 63 dollars to make an iPad the guts of the iPad cost 63 dollars so now there's many devices that will be in the neighbourhood of 10 euros sounds like science fiction but just wait and not Apple devices clearly that will be a sacrilege for the 1% who buy the Apple but in any case what we're going to see is clearly the move towards businesses making sense with mobile 80% of Fortune 500 companies letting their people use mobile devices to do these things and I'm not talking about the Blackberry here businesses use apps to be more productive to reduce paperwork this is a trend that we're going to see your company hasn't gone on this road you've got to get on there many people that I work with they ask me how do we make this change and say well give your top 20 people an iPhone and tell them they have to work only with the iPhone for 2 weeks and we find out what live is really like what you can do there how can we possibly sell something to people who are customers but we don't really know what they're doing we're living in a parallel reality I mean I worked in the music business for a long time trying to help them to understand digital one of my clients we went to and we discussed how kids use music today and I was dismayed to see they had absolutely no idea what people were actually doing they just said well all these kids are just stealing music if that's what you think you're never going to sell anything because you haven't bothered to look and say you can't possibly learn how to swim if you don't get wet so if you're not doing the same thing and your customers and your clients are in deep trouble because you never really know what it's like this is the reason why you need to be on Facebook and LinkedIn not because you want to waste time because it's part of the process it's exactly like saying you know 14 years ago or what are the 12 years when Google started remember that whole debate about Google I was in the Silicon Valley back then and we had this debate everybody was saying like well so who cares what kind of ranking you have on Google people put in my name and I come on page 15 doesn't matter a year later a year later every single company in the world wants to pay people to get on top of the first page in the Google ranking so-called search engine optimization and I'm sure you know all about this we spent billions of dollars in this now it's social engine optimization it's basically who talks about you who recommends you who's connected with you there's a website called cloud or peer index if you're not on Twitter you probably won't know them but what they do is they take all your API from Twitter all the information of data from Twitter and Facebook and they feed it into an engine an algorithm that reads how influential you are I mean it's very simple using the API open API there's a profile saying that GERD has a rating of 62 and that means for some reason they I don't know how they do this I think it's basically not but anyway they do this so in Los Angeles when you check into a hotel before you arrive they look you up they feed you into cloud and if you have a rating above 50 you get an upgrade to a suite they upgrade you based on your social rating I mean of course it's typically American stuff we probably wouldn't do that but it shows you something there's a new currency and the currency is how important are you how many connections do you have how are you actually dealing with others and that is becoming a social currency so if you look at all the mobile innovation that we see here clearly businesses are going mobile wider than that we're connecting employees I mean technologies in the workplace are clearly there if that's not your company then you have to have a word with your CEO because that's where you're going to go what is the time of arrival in Poland of this I don't know you guys have to be judging of this but basically this will drive a lot of commercial process I think so if you're looking at stuff that many of you may have not heard about QR codes, bar codes, markers, GPS radio frequency chips all that sort of stuff this mobile related technology becomes a standard in Asia you can go to many places and scan the QR code at Burger King in Tokyo and it will tell you what's inside the burger you hold up the mobile phone you scan the code, you get information you decide to kill yourself and eat it or not eat it you have this information about local markers about GPS and this all sounds like Star Trek to us like science fiction because many of us didn't grow up with these tools but for a lot of people this is becoming a total standard now in three to five years this will be built into any device so you better get used to that sort of idea of what it does and how it does it so future of money and transactions clearly we're going to lose credit cards this device I think it's called the square allows people with an iPhone to take money it's widely used already in the US but in the future of course mobile phones will do that and will be able to have mobile payments this is clearly going to be a big deal in terms of the change of commerce and it's already quite big here in Poland being looked at by several big players so that's something to consider now I think in general the markets that are in transition clearly I don't know which exciting business you're in but clearly there are some business models that are already quite stressed so if you're looking at this slide for example you can see that music, news, books, television movies they're already quite stressed by the internet now we're moving quickly into healthcare, cars, retail utilities, energy impacted by the model of the internet the biggest thing that's happening in America right now for example for energy it's called the smart grid and distributed energy allows people to put solar or whatever windmills out in the garden and contribute to the energy grid it's a reverse model so you don't buy energy only from your provider you also ship it back and you can become a provider of energy with whatever you've got left over from your solar for example if you live in the desert or so so it's a reverse model so lots of transitions there and I just want to show you some mobile commerce facts here as well clearly what we have now with devices like the iPhone Android and many others is that all of a sudden the interface of computers which was basically expert kind of stuff you know geek territory now it's becoming what we call natural user interfaces you just go like this and now the next thing is you speak I know if you've tried Siri the Apple thing right very early but I was in the Google apps the other day in Australia and they showed me something where you can speak into a device and basically they translate that speech into 20 languages scrolling down the screen perfectly so not quite speaking yet but text and you can sit in your couch and command the television and the television of course is the internet so you can sit in your college and you can say bring up banking look up balance send $50 with your voice so these things are going to have huge impact I mean we're going to be in a store saying to our mobile phone just hold it up to the bar and say save for later I mean people already doing that but it takes a little bit more effort to do that that is going to be our reality we're going to see basically the reason that people don't buy stuff in the store is that they found online for a better price I mean price is a huge issue as I was saying earlier price and trust sort of rank evenly you buy something that is a good deal you buy it but if you don't trust them you wouldn't even buy it for a lower price the verse is also true if you trust them with the prices to how you wouldn't buy either so those things come in with parity it's a very important point so you have things like social network are becoming really important all this stuff like location based services basically technology is going to be the major driver of commerce for the next decade technology and the cultural changes because of technology so I always say to my retail clients you know what you're now in the content business because basically what you're saying distributing content about what you're selling for example car companies are now getting heavily into making movies with the cars second view on the technology business because you have to figure out how what you have can be presented there's lots and lots of cool technology and third of course you're in the advertising business that comes with the territory so a pilot with an iPad this is now a standard also it's actually being discussed whether they should be legal or not because guess what would they do with the iPad when they are up in the air they don't just read the flight manual but this thing the flight manual used to be 25 kilos or pounds and that changes the behavior of the pilot also because it gets updates on the iPad like every hour there's an update to the flight manual it's good for us, makes it much safer for flying supposedly here's my friend Carl Lagerfeld just kidding he loves books we used to be people of the book I mean when you think back I have a library of books, a couple thousand books we used to love books but now clearly we're no longer people of the book and this is kind of sad but that's what it is we're now people of the screen when you go to a big city the next time especially in Asia, just take a look how many screens the taxi driver has between four and eight screens are sitting glued to the windshield his Facebook page his taxi thing the GPS and whatever he's got it's quite mind-boggling we're people of the screen now I would call kids between 15 and 30 right? there's screens everywhere absolutely everywhere the screen is how we're going to reach them and when the internet gets faster and cheaper, which is a given that's the goal of every single enterprise in this area is to make it cheaper and faster and ubiquitous so clearly that's going to happen is a question of when and of course governments are saying basically they know that when 10% of more people are connected to the internet GDP grows by 1% that's direct relationship not only that, they also know they can save trillions of dollars for example from digital education from voting from sharing health records governments are connecting people this is a top priority clearly so when people get connected they do these things and that changes are going to buy things completely different and let's say back to one point I made earlier if you're not yourself a person of the screen you've got some work to do because clearly that is where the future is going so this is an argument I make with many of the CEOs that I talk to especially if you're between 40 and 75 or so you don't really see a reason to get involved because it's just time wasting but I would propose to you that you have to get a time wasting part of your daily job because if you don't do that you'll never find out what's at the other end of the wasting which is business this is a playground for the business of the future and Facebook is not a place where kids go and share dates there's many other places for that now Facebook is a place where people do a lot of business where they connect and talk about things so clearly people of the screen are different you've noticed now that we all become extremely impatient people call this the nowness so here's a quick example when Whitney Houston died in Beverly Hills in the Beverly Hills hotel it took 21 seconds after the mate discovered Whitney Houston dead it took 21 seconds for her to be announced to the world as dead through Twitter it took 41 minutes for the television people to show up so the speed of what we have today in news and in transactions that spreads much quicker so you have a choice of being you're either going to get in with the speed and give people the nowness which also means real-time product results comparison or you don't somebody else will do it you really have a very simple choice you're either going to be in a productive process or you're disrupted that is the choice that you have there is no other choice really here so we now live in the network society and we have to think about what network business looks like and one of the consequences is that we're no longer the only wheel I mean if you're looking at this image clearly shows you that there are big wheels in here maybe even bigger ones but they're interconnected and if one of those wheels drops out somebody else takes the place it's not like Microsoft 15 years ago where you couldn't possibly continue to work if you didn't have the latest update well now if something goes wrong and you go somewhere else you use another tool so basically if you look at all the stuff that used to cost money, Google has made it free email, docs, documents Android, all that stuff so in the network society that's a really important thing that we're moving from this idea of being central entities controlling entities to the idea of being networked and this is a crucial thing for selling stuff because when you're on the left in that red dot you can do whatever you want people don't have a choice but to buy from you because there's nobody else I mean just 10 years ago if you want to watch a movie 15 years ago you have to buy the DVD or you have to fly to London to see it if it wasn't playing in the movie theater here what you do today you have a thousand options you can pay or not pay doesn't matter you go to movies.to you can stream for free and there's a thousand websites that do it for free so now the option is not too much to say that it's not good to do this but it's to figure out how you can monetize the network system how you can create money out of this and this is indeed quite a challenge I think for content companies but for selling basically you have to realize that control moves to the nodes you know the points moves away from the center and to the users so the best thing you can do for retail for selling stuff is to move control to the user when you give the user more control and more tools to try to basically question you the more they will like you I mean this is what Amazon is doing this is the clearly the success behind Amazon is all these things now Amazon has Jeff Bezos has started the Kindle the reading device and basically nobody asked for this nobody said we want an electronic reader but he knew basically when he would do this that in the end Amazon becomes a publisher Amazon is not just a retailer now my last book the future of content is available on Amazon took me a week to put it up and it was available for selling I sold 2500 in like 4 hours now that's a big difference to the old system where I got 10% of the profits with a publisher take a year so those are huge disruptions I think that are coming our way here so if you're looking at a blackberry being that central and many of you are using blackberries I think you have to pay for the damn server and there's allegedly they're more secure but now we have Android we have a distributed system we don't need these guys we need them for many other reasons because the typing is great so they're still here I'm still a blackberry but we have choices now in a decentralized system these people won't survive because it's all about having a closed system with one big exception that's of course Apple they're very good at keeping a closed system so I think multi-channel is a total understatement this idea of multi-channel because we're moving into a world where the channel thinking is is probably flawed I mean the channel thinking is based on the left on the tower idea we used to have 2 towers now we've got 4 towers now we've got 8 towers and we have to control all these towers but really what it is is this there's a lot of conversations going on there's dozens of different ways that people reach us and buy our products we have to find a way that we can serve those fragments we have to think about what Forest of Colts here on this slide a little bit hard to see great research report what's called social commerce we're entering the era of social commerce and this has nothing to do with social per se in terms of in terms of social things so we're moving from a one to many world to a many to many world I think in your private lives if there's any such difference there really is no difference anymore between private and business life really for us as I'm sure you find out I have found out already you're already vastly connected to others I mean who's unlinked in here let's see who's unlinked in you can admit it why are we unlinked in to connect to others just in case we need them not for jobs but for connections so I've got something like 3700 or so unlinked in and if I want to talk to the CEO of Dokomo it's one email away somebody will say you should talk to Gert and he will listen and the same goes for Twitter I can tweet the chief editor of the New York Times and his response because what he does he takes the tweet, the message he looks at my profile and says this guy is a complete idiot maybe I should answer that's the difference many to many societies so what does this really mean this sort of funnel Seth Gordon has something very interesting he's a marketing guy that you should read his books he's got like I don't know 47 books but Seth said basically what's happening because of the internet so we're not out here talking like this to people like broadcasting our message right they're out here with their funnel going to me all we have to do is gather what they're saying to me and then turn that into a process of selling but that's a tall order of course because it's reversed so Andreas Weigand who's a friend of mine used to be chief scientist at Amazon he said in the 90s it was all about search and find in a 2000 it was about social and sharing and now this decade is about mobile and creation creation in the sense for example saying you go somewhere and say I like this product send it off to a friend, upload a video I mean the kind of stuff that we have happening in our mobile devices just beats everything so we go with this idea from saying we put a buy now button we're inverting this idea essentially saying okay there is a way that we have a conversation that leads to a purchase but we're not telling people that they have to buy all the time it's much more intricate than that so we're now living in a world where the users, the consumers are creating a lot of that stuff it's called meta content or metadata we're all in that production cycle we go somewhere and we say we like this thing or we forward it to somebody basically content is advertising data and users in the reverse is also true so if you want to think about selling you have to think about your customer whether it's B2B or B2C that's actually not much of a difference there this is what they're doing now they're generating huge amounts of data that we can use to do a better job and now in addition to the people of the screen we're also people of the cloud when you think about this our music is moving into the cloud using services like Spotify or more, Guardio our movies are moving to the clouds with Amazon or iTunes our health records are moving to the cloud and this is a good news for you people's money move to the cloud basically the way it's going to look like in a couple of years or pretty much now in many places you can buy anything you want anywhere you are from anyone that's fantastic news the only reason you're going to do that is because somebody has recommended it and he actually wanted so advertising will change completely to put people towards a direction that they really like rather than what they could like so advertising for example is changing in the way and this is bad news for television and for print because the old television was disconnected it didn't know who I was thankfully sometimes but now every single television that's being delivered starting I think in Europe it's pretty much around now every single television connects to the internet the future of television is the internet it's the convergence of the two so all the television guys Samsung Sony everybody else has one thing you want to do is make sure that the internet goes online so we can communicate with who's watching and guess what's going to happen there we'll be able to pull up our slideshow from our kids or our flicker images and the advertising is going to be so targeted like on the web just wait until Facebook offers television we'll be able to watch television from around the world 10,000 channels on demand for free using advertising anyway so people of the cloud clearly that question is do you want to get this cloud to work in Poland I think sooner than you think because the benefit of this is obvious no matter how you look at it this is basically the goal for everyone so in this world we'll be moving from the idea of the central entity to the network entity it's basically fundamental changes on how we live and work communicate and buy and sell it's a fundamental change so I would urge you not to look at retail multi-channel retail in a way of saying you're going to put on a mouse trap or put a fig leaf on or a band aid some of those is needed but let's think a little bit larger e-commerce of the future the super challenge is this point number one we're going from e-business to me-business to we-business this is a great simplification of course it's not enough to go to people and say you know what now you can buy this well that's great news that was great news in the 90s I can go somewhere and click but then it was about my stuff and now it's about our stuff and in other words the social commerce parts I talked about earlier so there's a great opportunity there Mercedes-Benz has already discovered this and we have this site called Generation-Benz if you're a Mercedes driver and they like you and you've bought lots of cars from them they will invite you to come to this website and you can contribute to the R&D of the next Mercedes there's 750,000 people in this drivers and you can tell them what they should build it's free of course you don't pay but they don't pay you either most of the R&D for the luxury cars comes from this place I mean the engaging people I think we have to rethink how we do business when it's from the me to the we how does that impact what we're selling this is what Daimler does about the open innovation network I would say we're now dealing with the people formerly known as consumers in fact I think we should strike that word I mean if I said to you guys you are just consumers like you were 15 years ago you wouldn't be happy with that because it's like saying you're just a white guy or something okay that's true but that's not all I am there's more to it we have to think about these people becoming different kinds of people different kinds of pieces of them and if you're looking at this talk about multi-channel I think consumers already have multi-channel lives maybe many of us don't have that because we're not maybe we don't really feel like we should be part of this but we have multi-channel lives mobile phone email internet and so on a stat here from some recent research from the ITU in Poland showing you that definitely you have some work to do you need to talk to your government and get them to hurry up to put people online this is a crucial requirement the second one here is Poland you guys have mostly DSL and a few other things but not like the other countries where you have several options and this slide shows you basically that a lot of people in Poland have said the reason that they're not online is because there's no need I mean this research is I think from 2008 so I'm sure it has changed ITU isn't that fast with research so I think you're at the takeoff point now a bit of a pivot point where all these old concerns are starting to go away and hopefully the government will also support this I just wanted to show you this slide here by a friend of mine, Ross Dawson who's the futurist from Australia and he talked a lot about the news and media business and if you're looking at this slide this is your future even though it's about newspapers basically what's happening is that people in the news business have said people should be willing to pay for content pay for news which is a logical assumption if you make the content but the bottom line is that people consume news because of 50 different reasons that they value they value the filtering the curation, the packaging, the community the relevance, the terminus, the novelty these are all issues why I buy stuff, right that's why I read the Wall Street Journal or so or not because of this mix of things if you take this map of the newscape and you superimpose it over what you're doing which is retail, selling things then you can clearly say that people are going to buy stuff because of a myriad of reasons many different reasons your job is to create a value map that is meaningful for them so they may buy something because it's easy they may buy something because it looks good like in a for example buying apps on the mobile phone you guys if you have an iPhone or an Android it's so easy somebody comes up with an app for the weather or so it's one euro you click and that's it it's easy, it's low price it doesn't really matter so the average iPhone user spends $4.80 a month on this stuff that's kind of like it's a combination of all these things and then you forget that you even have these apps you buy it, you use it, once never go back I mean what a great business Apple sells more apps and it sells music and movies combined money-wise so clearly there's a value creation here that we have to say well the bottom line is here that if we use it as a roadmap we have to add value I think the fragmentation is also quite clear that many different customers have different reasons to buy they don't all have the same reason some are more for money, for price and others the bottom line everywhere is this it's controlled to the user and of course this is the most painful part because we really don't like this idea I mean if we're going to give the user so much control that they can kick our butts all the time that's not a good position to be for example the airlines many airlines did not until EasyJet came along and EasyJet allowed people to re-book online to see the availability of flights and re-book and do all the completely transparent they charge for it of course but you can do it all of the big airlines around the world did not want us to have this kind of power because A was a travel agent who could do it have to protect them and B they don't want to tell us what's available because we can compare all the cheap airlines have done this now Swiss and Lufthansa finally three months ago said okay you can re-book online I mean why why does somebody else have to come along and destroy your business so that you're going to make a change it makes no sense so the more you can empower your customer the better and that goes also for your B2B relationships so you should make those moves now because as I said earlier this is all about trust Rupert Murdoch's story you all heard about this of course basically he had to apologize to the public you know I don't know 500 times over the last couple weeks but transparency is now becoming something that people are expecting from you right you made a mistake you have to be able to admit it something goes wrong you have to talk about it you can't do something you have to tell people I call this the tyranny of transparency it's a bit of a tyranny but there's nothing we can do about it if you're selling stuff online if you're retailing you have to be transparent with all of the pieces for example Unilever one of the biggest brands in the world having owned something like 5,000 consumer goods we did a seminar the other day and it's quite clear they're spending something like 50 billion dollars buying stuff the procurement people buy soap or palm oil a million pounds of palm oil so all of a sudden these companies are subject now to transparency because people are saying you know what if you buy this much stuff maybe you should buy it from organic farmers or from farmers who are not cutting off all the trees so all of a sudden they're responsible for that too they're not just responsible for the cheapest price but now they're also responsible for the amazon so that transparency is our future and you can say you don't like it but look at the music business they did not survive this 75% profit decline in the decade so here's a video that you may have seen a FedEx delivery guy just some last week pulls up doesn't ring the doorbell he just throws it to the delivery which is a computer screen over the fence and takes off he was filmed by the security camera so this guy put the video on youtube and within 13 minutes got 8 million views and the stock went down of FedEx and they had to explain that this guy was a bad driver but not everybody does this it's obvious not everybody does this but I mean of course we all know this guy is probably an idiot and I just did it for that reason or he was just stoned or whatever but basically what we're seeing here is this transparency is expected from us all now before people have a meeting with you if you're running any company of any significance they go and check you out online so if you don't have a name like Gary Smith which is difficult to find people go to your LinkedIn profile and they check you out I mean I'm sure it happens to you all the time now and if you don't have a LinkedIn profile if you're not on Facebook if you're not listed on the company website they're gonna say who is this person doesn't exist I'm meeting a ghost I mean this is basically we're living in a public world now so in many ways our privacy has been supplanted with what I call publicity if you're in business you're public and that creates of course all kinds of problems but transparency I mean here you can see the police department in Davis California a demonstration from Occupy Wall Street demonstration where the policeman steps up and without like a priest in the church pulls out the pepper spray in this kind of I mean you see every single day last year there were 56 laws or new laws were overturned because of Facebook action people got together and said we don't want this law let's all talk about it and it didn't happen so you can assume that people are really going to look at what you do transparency is crucial as the CEO of salesforce.com which is a fantastic service I'm sure that many of you are using it right he says it's not about the airspring only it's about the corporate spring I mean the power has shifted to our users, our suppliers, our partners and of course the consumer and the major force of that power shift is that people want stuff for free I'm sure you've recognized this as consumers we love free like the phone company gives us a thousand SMS we buy from them because it's free or their bundle of music we buy from them we like free stuff on the internet this has become the paradigm of operations you're getting something because you're going to buy something else that's not new but on the web this has extreme consequences for example Amazon has just launched a movie service in America and to launch the movie service they didn't say we have movies now click here to buy they said to every single user that's a premium user getting free shipping you can watch 5,000 movies online for free it's a present so Amazon went to the movie studio said we're planning this how much would you charge us to get 5,000 movies from you guys so we can build this together they paid whatever 30, 40 million something like that and they gave a gift to the customers now the customers are saying wow 5,000 movies that's pretty cool I'll watch 5,000 movies it takes a long time so they get into this and do this and before you know it they say it's quite cool but I wish I would have the archive and watch those old movies from Truffaut or whatever I want to watch then they pay that's called freemium and that is the operating paradigm of modern commerce if you can figure out how to give away something for free that will not cost you too much or nothing and then unlock the next level then you found the holy cow so I would encourage you to think about how can you make something free and then convert 50 to 80% of the free users to the next level LinkedIn works the same way you can use LinkedIn for free but if you want to send more emails it's 20 bucks last year they made 650 million dollars and this doesn't cost them anything because the flag that says the database flag says ok to send that's it doesn't cost anything so freemium is a great model I would encourage you to look at there's lots of examples on this which you don't really have time to get into but we're looking at Evernote for example or Dropbox or LinkedIn many of those things and Amazon this is the Amazon ad so if you can think of making something free I think multi-channel retailing if you do this we'll give you this and if you do that we can sell you this it's basically that sort of idea the connected idea this is the ideal vehicle for multi-channel selling because you can make something free and something else costs money and look at the telecom companies the ISPs and operators that's what they're doing it's called bundling so if you buy the DSL then you also get movies so think about it like this it's basically a very fruitful conversation to think about what you can make free this is Facebook of course and by the way I'm not a great Facebook promoter I just use it as an example I think Facebook is becoming infrastructure there were many other good companies like Facebook doing very similar things including of course the Polish company can't pronounce it but what is it called Nazca Klasa okay so interesting to see now evening out but clearly if so many people are using both social networks are the next cable TV they're basically places where people swap information and we are the content of Facebook so many people have said with humor that Facebook is like a full-time virtual reality show and we are the actors we're acting on Facebook and people can watch us whether it's brother or something so that's not too far-fetched because now that big brands almost every single major brand is going on Facebook and creating a channel there where they have videos and audio podcasts and pictures of the executives and updates and conversations it's a lot like interactive TV so basically what's happening there is that we can easily say Facebook is becoming like television and CRM is a social tool is CRM if you haven't noticed social media is CRM so that is clearly going to be the trend in the next couple of years we're heading into a world of what's called Lyconomics it's a book by Rohit Bhagavar who's publishing it very soon it's a friend of mine the like button is worth more than advertising Lyconomics means and this is really true in B2B it's even more true in B2B what you do business with somebody that you don't like in parenthesis you're worried about them, they may be dangerous they may not be honest they may have been tainted by bankruptcy you don't do business with people you don't like and that is going to get worse or better you could say because of the internet because we're becoming more transparent you can make mistakes but you have to say that you made them within reason of course so I think this is a crucial trend in Lyconomics that we're going to see on a global level they will become absolutely crucial in the B2B sector the only value that you have is trust and being like an offering added values everything else is just coming down to the common race towards zero which is free you make everything free people will buy from you so that's basically what it comes down to I'm going to skip the linked in stuff because we don't have enough time sorry about this here's this one you've heard about earned media hopefully earned media is essentially the idea of saying when people talk about what we are and what we do and how good we are we earn attention we don't pay for it and this is the trend that we're seeing basically as a way of marketing I'm not talking about better mouse trap here I'm talking about honest earner marketing you see the own stuff the bought stuff now there are people saying that our marketing is going to shift to 50% of our marketing is going to come from earned media people talking about us and this is why you would give away stuff for free and I have to warn you of course there is one thing that kind of spoils the party here when we buy marketing we control it when we earn marketing we get more reach but we have no control and this is precisely why a lot of CFOs and CEOs are saying I don't like this idea they could talk bad about my product because my product is not so good ok that's the trade off you can't have the cake and eat it you want people to talk about your stuff you have to let them talk what they want to talk about Dell computers great example you may remember about 10 years ago or 12 years ago Dell was really big and then Dell machines got really bad and they went to this thing called Dell Hell everybody was bitching about Dell nobody was buying anymore so Michael Dell said what we do here is we go online and we just pull down our pants and say ok we've got these problems let us know what they are and they started this huge conversation called the IdeaStorm and they have 27 people on Twitter doing nothing but taking customer complaints and they improve the product but guess what the Dell computers have improved but they're not that much better than before but they're ok again people buy them again because people have taken the conversation inside they've earned this even though they have not actually fixed every single piece so you don't have to be Superman then but you do have to take in the conversation significant challenge we all have to become a little bit more like Google in the sense that we would expect somebody else to invent something that's going to completely disrupt them and in a way you could say that Google has already been completely disrupted themselves by the likes of Facebook and Twitter because Google was all about saying you type something in, you find it and we own that guess what people do now, they go on Facebook and listen to what people are saying that's a real problem for Google because it's not algorithms in the same way so a little piece of the Google empire is to say how can we accept that we live in a world that's constantly moving then we can't always look for a plan I mean we can look for a plan but we can't take a year to make the plan another year to roll out the trial it has to be permanent beta so we put 10,000 euros into an idea we launch it, it fails, we do the next one not a million euros we have to try stuff much more much more quickly so Google for example has 1200 alpha projects which are invented by the Google staff and then they graduate into beta they have 150 beta projects and the last one Google Mail just came out of beta that's their process you got to have a process like this remember what I said earlier I think when you're in the selling business it's about technology it's about advertising and it's about content so you have to actually invest in this term so I'll give you a quick summary first I didn't talk much about this because it's kind of obvious the future of selling anything is social, local, mobile, video, cloud it's all these pieces people want to see videos about your products they want to see your stuff in the cloud they want to be able to do it on the mobile there are estimates saying that from we're going to see in some countries probably will take a little bit longer and more than others we'll see the entire internet traffic will move to 80% on mobile devices so completely the reverse of today which is mostly computers which are not made for buying or content that's made for work so when the internet moves to mobile devices when people use mobile devices they become your perfect buying partner but that's a different world I think that we have to get used to that is the future if you don't live in this world you don't know what social means you don't have a mobile phone and of course you're not in the same world as the user and I'm not talking about kids here I'm talking about literally the biggest growth in social networking is 32 to 50 years old and of course those are the clients and customers data is in your oil you're collecting data but you're not using it or you're not filtering it you're not mining it or you make mistakes with data like privacy violations and those kind of things but I can't understand for example why we still have these debates in many e-commerce companies why you don't allow people to log in with Facebook into your website I mean I'm sure you have this debate all the time if you want to buy something you make them register why? log in with Facebook log in with Twitter called a social login you don't get the user data in the beginning you get it later simple as that 90% when you require them to sign up with something they already signed in it's the same thinking than the music business where they said if we can control the artist, the distribution the copying, the royalties then we're in great shape false complete failure 75% decline of revenues in a decade because the reverse is true so anyway it's not about that so it's about finding a new way of doing this interaction before transaction you want to sell lots of stuff then you have to engage if you don't engage you won't sell you may sell now because there's nobody else selling it but that's going to stop I mean Amazon is a social place as much as it is a store and any good store of course even an offline store is a social place I mean that is of course the logic of selling return on involvement not return on investment this is a nightmare for CFOs but you have to get involved and then you have to invest and then you have to figure out how to make this work I put this again there sorry the conversation economy this always sounds a little bit like sort of California geek stuff but it's not I mean every conversation can have multiple purposes but when you're having a conversation with your client or your business partners it always results in building more trust and that results in more transactions simple as that but you're not having a conversation about the transaction every time I mean that wouldn't be human in that sense so multi-channel is the new default I mean clearly that's depends on the exact time of when the roll out of connectivity is improved give control to your customers of course we've said that for 50 years but now the reality is that people having these devices they have control if you refuse they'll just annihilate you if you give them as much control as you can look at what's happening with the airlines all the stuff I can go to swiss.com and I can see how much carbon I've burned now using a graphic in fact now the airlines are starting to suggest that I shouldn't fly I mean this is the next step if you think this through so airlines are now looking at building places and airports where you can virtually travel telepresence 3D holographics those things cost a million euros next time you go to the airport the airline will say you know what we figured out that if you only go in there to speak for half an hour go in this box we'll ship you there don't burn any carbon so those kind of things are the future control to your customers I want to thank you very much for your time