 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your humble, lovable, squeezibly soft host. As always, we'd like to come to you this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So what do we have today? Well, it's options, expiration, not much movement after the open. A little higher. I thought maybe they'd just try to pin it at 3,100 on the S&P cash. Looks to me a little bit pusher. I wouldn't be surprised to see us give up five or six points into the close. Volume so far today, fairly tepid. Generally, if you don't get a lot of action on Thursday, you get that action today. It's been rather mewed after the first, of course, a little bit of the open. But 3.7 billion shares, which is kind of light. I didn't have a lot of volume yesterday for options, expiration. So we'll have to keep a close eye on it. Sometimes you get a lot of juice the last 30 minutes of the day. But to see where, for the most part, as we've been talking about it, the thing that has bothered me about being short, wasn't the fact that most of the technicals look horrible. It was the stocks that probably shouldn't be shorted, like Apple, Microsoft, and others, were being heavily shorted, which almost always makes me think that the market's not going down. Or if it's going down, probably not a lot. I always like it when shorts give up, and then you almost always see a rapid descent that makes it worth the money of being short. So just not a lot of cash to the upside. I mean, yesterday, the option market makers were thinking maybe a point higher into Christmas. Again, it's not going to be lost on anybody, but certainly I suspect that they're trying to hold this market up as long as they can. The big men of Wall Street are generally paid for Christmas bonuses with the closing price at the end of November. Sometimes those bonuses don't get paid out until January, but basically the cutoff date for about 80% of people on Wall Street for Christmas bonuses, performance bonuses, are the end of November. Some of them actually get the end of October. The rest, the majority though, I think it's the end of November. So generally you don't see a lot of juice and movement in December. Last year was kind of a one-off, but certainly it sold horribly into the 24th, 25th, and 26th before it started to run. We were pretty much heavily long, I think by the 25th or 26th in the newsletter, caught all of that. And one of the features in the daily newsletter is the sector oscillators. Well, they've done exceedingly well at finding all the lows. I continue to work on a lot of stuff to find the highs. Much, much tougher to be shorting the highs because euphoria, not a logic in it. Fear, man, that's something that permeates the body and almost always a very good signal at lows. Generally not that more problematic to find out when manic people have decided to give up. Generally it is not with a bang but a whimper, and it is problematic. Still, I've still got one position. I was looking at another one. I'm just waiting for everything to kind of settle out on it. Maybe Monday we'll see if the bounce in a couple of what I'm looking at hold. But again, I'm going to be looking a lot more toward the commodity side of the markets mostly just because when markets tend to be very narrowly traded or small trading ranges and actually small, even small up or down movements, they tend to want to look at commodities a lot tougher. I don't know if people just leave the equities business and look for action in commodities because there isn't a whole lot, but certainly it does end up playing out that way. Don't know the actual reason. We can surmise, but I don't think we can prove. Anyway, took some shots mostly because the charts showed horrible internals in the market. It did not matter. A handful of stocks is keeping this market up and pushing it a little higher. We'll talk about earnings after the bell last night and how they're pushing it. Of course, the biggest thing is that we're going to be six days less from Thanksgiving's Black Friday to Christmas this year. Comparisons are going to be very, very tough in the retail world and kind of unsure how that's going to play out in the den just before the end of four o'clock when I was going through earnings. We've got a ton of retail coming out next week. None of them look all that strong, but again, a lot of them are very, very short, shorted. If they just come in okay, it could be a lot of people covering before the end of the year, even though the stock price is probably somewhere around a fair value at the time. Shortly, those stocks tend to get pushed with lighter volume starting about the second week of December to work on it. You can give me a call at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. Of course, you can always put a message in the den. So else do we have right here? Well, one of the reasons we talked about taking a little bit more than five bucks off the table in our China short yesterday mostly because it finally looks like the Fed has thrown enough gasoline on the fire to keep the TLT hovering around. It's basically flat on the day so far, but they got it back above that 136.50, which is kind of the low end of that trading range. It doesn't look like it's going to go a lot higher. The question is it certainly looks like the bulk of the weakness is in Asia. The question is, are they doing the same thing over there to paper over any gaping issues in the market? You always think that China is going to have its 1929 moment. Just don't know where. Things may be okay over here but still pull back if China does have some kind of systemic risk. You got to know that it's a house of cards. Everybody's lying to everybody. Just wonder when the music is going to stop. Anyway, we'll be back in a minute. We'll talk a little bit about history and then we'll move on to a lot of charts today so we can start looking into next week and through the end of the month to see if there's anything out here that's worth playing. If you're not currently using the TAS Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The TAS Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures and forex. Heated by Steve Dahl, TAS understands that in today's technological world the use of top-flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. 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The first commercially available microprocessor, the 4004, was primarily used in calculators, the first being the Buscom 141-PF. In fact, it was the Buscom that actually developed the design of what would become the Intel 4004. Buscom approached Intel to help them finalize the design and manufacture their calculator engine. It would be a scant six or seven years before I would buy a Altair 8008 that had an 8080 processor in it. The forerunner to the X Intel 32-bit processor design that would come out for the PC 16 and 32-bit processors of the 1980s and 90s. So I was pretty much familiar with at least the big brother to this particular processor. They weren't exciting by any stretch of the imagination today, but at the time pretty groundbreaking and, of course, you could have never had a calculator that ran off of batteries before this. Everything drew so much power that it would have lasted all of about five minutes. So why they were a little bit bigger and clunkier than today? You could actually, if you were an engineer, put one in your pocket. And of course, by the mid-1975, 1978 range, slide rules kind of starting to slide by 1980 a lot of the new Texas instrument kind of calculators were coming out with even graphing functionality in the LCDs. And that kind of put an end to that old business. Of course, one of the biggest entries in that calculator business was Commodore Business Machines. A maker of typewriters was looking for something to enhance its business, looked at some of these processors available for using calculators, decided on a 6502 and made a Commodore 64 out of it. The biggest and best-selling computer of all time. I don't think they're ever going to get to the kind of numbers that they had in a Commodore 64 ever again, mostly because the cost and the people were doing what they do now. Of course, we're looking at big numbers in game machines, which really is kind of why you don't see those again. On this day in 1971, the big move to semiconductors really had started. Or was starting. I guess that would be a better way to describe it. After the bell last night, AMAT says that there's a lot of spending coming out for the new smaller size dies next year. That means that the current semiconductor companies may have higher expenses. We'll see in the next round of earnings whether or not the investors like that part of it. But being able to pop this one also has a great deal to do, like I said, in way too many shorts for the economics. You had decent shorting the last few days. It wasn't that bad. It wasn't that horrible or that many shorts. But there were plenty for earnings, which basically came in line with just a tad better guidance. But at this moment, the market's not looking at anything half full for the most part. They're looking for, oh, is it full or did you just take one sip out of the glass? It's pretty euphoric in a way that earnings are coming in. But I have a feeling that is because of a great deal. But far too many people shorting the stocks that may roll over here in another couple of weeks. But it's kind of tough to see that. The other big news of the night was NVDA, is that right? Yeah, NVIDIA. This one, man, were they pouting on trying to keep this up last night? And today, they sent everybody and their dog out to make sure this went higher. Again, Cisco didn't know if they would say the truth this quarter. NVIDIA was one of these things, too, where you knew from outside, let me put it this way, I knew from outside sources that both Cisco and NVIDIA should probably be a little bit weaker on the day when earnings came out for NVIDIA. It was certainly what we thought of about 55% of the business and revenues and income all come from video cards, the rest of it from a variety of other sources. But it's more than half of everything they do. They pretty much have about 70% of the games market. AMD with their cards had a lot of business in video cards with the Bitcoin mining business. That still isn't anywhere close to what it was. The economics basically say that you need to have, you start making money at about $8,500 on Bitcoin. I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. NVIDIA and AMD both came back as a great deal of those companies that got involved in Bitcoin, had to liquidate a lot of those video cards that were being used for Bitcoin mining. So there was kind of a tough year there. So NVIDIA, AMD both kind of coming out earlier this year on it. But kind of interesting to see people that should have known better, big analysts spouting on TV about how Bitcoin mining was coming back. I see absolutely no evidence that that is true. And certainly even when it was at its height, NVIDIA only had about 20% of the business of Bitcoin mining. 80% of that was from AMD. Let's take a quick look at that. You could have a little something out here on $39.37, the high of today. Again, everybody was shorting the living daylights out of this stock. If you look down here on the bottom, where I've got my pointer, that black part is the percentage that was sold short yesterday and the day before. But it's been... This thing's being shorted to the tune of about 30% and actually almost 40% on Tuesday. So a lot of people were on the wrong side of this going into the earnings of others like AMD. But again, try to stay away from highly shorted stocks. What was it? It's not as bad as you would think. About three days to cover. Still far too many shorts in AMD. We need those shorts to give up before the thing will pop out. We'll be back in a minute. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now is a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter, the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything. David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently, and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning, then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters. For all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today, log on to TFNN.com now. Hi folks, Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. 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We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even provide you with a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Up 18 points on the S&P 5 Dow 30, up 161 Nasdaq up 52. The Russell 2000 up just under 8 at $15.96 and a half. Crude oil up $0.99. Again, the Baker Hughes numbers came in rather bullish. And I think at least we probably have some kind of floor under crude until those numbers start changing. But at some point you have to give up production and the best thing for a low price is a low price. We continue to see rigs being taken off that are probably not the most economic and the ones with cheaper cost of production leaving out there or living. What else do we have when we take a quick look? Let's take a look at this. As we said, oils up $0.97 for West Texas natural gas, up a nickel, gold down about $6.70, silver off about $0.11. Copper still stuck in that trading range around $2.63. Natural gas, up a nickel. But again, this thing has kind of been stuck in that trading range. The best thing that you can say for natural gas is that the rig count is coming down. You might be able, if they close the right rigs, you might be able to get a little bit of movement in natural gas. I do not see a future this year where natural gas goes over $4. Still a big move, but too many people telling me about natural gas going to $10 or $15. That always makes me think that there are way too many people way too bullish on natural gas. It would probably be fairly conservative. If that price on crude goes higher, you're going to have those wells open back up and the price of natural gas will fall fairly quickly. As we said, volume fairly light. We still only have four billion shares on the day. That's an expiration day and off a day where the volume was well short of what we were, or what you think you should look for in attacking new highs in the market. We shall see. As I said, I wouldn't be surprised to sell off five, maybe 10 points before the end of the day, but there's no guarantee in it. I don't see a lot of evidence yet. Too many people short dist at the moment and that may be enough to keep the market higher for just a little while longer. One of the other things that I dislike, like I said, covered my short position in China yesterday for a nice profit, but one of the problems was or is that the Fed may be able to pull one out of the fire, or they may not be able to speak. They've at least got the downside quilts for the short term and the VNQ. This one is the one that rotated first. If we're going to have some downside before the end of the year, this may get up another 50 cents or a buck. Of course, the big news, the reason why this bounce was the TLT, this thing did get back down, blew out the lows, did so on more volume, and that's a lot of stuff that makes you think that we're going to get at least one more retest of 134.45, which is the November 7th low. So, as we see that, you gapped up, you kind of kind of gone a couple of sideways moves. Could this get back up to 140? It could. That would be a better bet if we're looking for another big leg down, maybe even 141.68. Maybe it comes up there and hovers around here for a while when they move down. And of course, the overnight repo business is what this thing is all about. It started off in September. By October, it became problematic. You got back up to 146.03 on October 4th. And then a wholesale selling down to this November 7th low, a little bit of bounce here. But again, this does look like nothing more than a bounce and a downtrend. What we're looking for is this thing to get back up to 141.68, which would be a nice move back out and sideways. So what else do we have? What did we want to look at? Had a few things out here. We looked at TLT. We looked at that. Question about docus. Take a quick look at that for Jim from Ontario. Canada or Ontario in California. And maybe you'll let me know. Anyway, docusign, you know, when you look at this, I want to cringe. Mostly just because there is no volume since this gap higher back on the 6th of September. Let's see what earnings are next due. December 5th. So yeah, could this hang out another couple of weeks higher? But certainly when you look at this, especially last week or so in the volume, this just looks very, very tough on this one. But you know what? Kind of the whole market when we look at that kind of stuff. To what else do we have? Question about the IBB. Take a quick look at that. Did I put it in there correct? I don't want extra B. So it's not going to find anything. You're back up to the July 3rd high that had 2 million shares. Got about 1.3 million shares. Now you had about 1.6 million shares on the 8th. And you had about 2.1 million shares, which didn't get anywhere. Now, a couple bucks shy of the high, 2.2 million shares. But again, what you were looking for is these hits close to the previous high at 1,1063. And again, 1.3 million shares compared to 2 million shares. You've got an hour left in the day, but volume has been moving around rather slowly. To what else do we have? Question about Adobe. A-D-B-E. A-D-B-E. If you can type correctly. Adobe. Yeah. I see what you're looking at. You're going in 2.5 million shares with maybe 1.5 million shares so far today. So you want to see how this works out over time. If you're looking for, you know, a nice trading range, could this go all the way up into the Christmas and retest 313 on much lighter volume and set up kind of trapdoor selling at the first of the year? That'd be one scenario. The other one is that this is the retrace that you're going to get. And today is a low volume spike back into that August 9th high at 298.27. That had 2.5 million shares. Again, you've got 1.3 million shares right now. So again, very light volumes. You know, are you ever going to get the retrace? Well, you hope you do because if you don't, and it drags like this all the way up into Christmas, generally that means some very happy selling at the beginning of the year. You want to let some of that tension out now with some retraces. We'll be back in a minute. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. 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I'll talk to Tom O'Brien about this in the Tech Insider half hour, last half of his show coming up here in about 45 minutes. But I had something happen to me on my Roku device. Maybe other people had the same thing. And Tom made a comment about it last week, about the way we should think about it. And thinking that it does seem like the way we do. So we'll talk to him about it a little bit. But very interesting. What else do we have going on here? We'll look at it. What else are we going to talk about? Why a company thinks it's going to corner the weather business? If you believe that. Somebody does actually believe they're going to corner the weather business. And it may not be who you think it is. Doesn't that sound like one of those National Enquirer ads? And you may not think who you think it is that you might think that it's who it is. That it's not. Anyway, just a thought. Anyway, at the bottom of the next hour. Okay, so what else do we have? Still light volume in the markets. Up 18 points on the SB cash. Again, kind of looks like a just barely holding up. At least you're not seeing a lot of volume come in just now over a little bit of 4 billion shares. So one more push higher and not that much juice. Any question about what's going on in the dollar? It's down a little bit and down 15 cents. Yeah, I don't see a whole lot that says that the end is nigh for the dollar, but you're down that much. It's been mostly for the last trading day sold off, but I don't know if that matters so much. Again, that may be more of an issue with the Fed and their levers and pulleys behind the curtain to any other extent. Okay. What else do we have? I'm just looking at a few other things out here that we have people asking about. Question about keys. K E Y S. They make a lot of test equipment. Again, like the whole market for a lot of these tech stocks, there's a handful that didn't, but a lot of them like this one look very dangerous at this point. You've had about two weeks of up move and key sites without really any specific good signs of strength. It's still in a try. It's still in an up trend. No sign to pull the trigger yet. But again, when you get with this kind of light volume, you're never really sure what is going to be the opposite side of it. And again, as long as people are starting to develop stuff for 5G, key site will probably be doing extremely well. And of course, mostly infrastructure. When this thing starts to move south, then that probably means that the big money is going to be made in other areas of that technology. Like the people actually making the phones, a lot of other stuff. So I have a feeling when you see Apple advertising 5G phones, that's going to change a great deal of it. And probably this one will come back to some kind of decent value over time. I think right now it's nothing but blue sky after 5G has been out for a year. So could this easily come back to 55? I think you're going to find that this is going to hit a high. Once you buy these machines, the issue isn't whether or not you need to buy a lot more. The stuff is expensive. Just the little probes and stuff you buy are 20 grand. So it's a great business on the way up. It is also problematic for any kind of pullback in that business. Western Digital continues to try to find 50 bucks as a home. This and STX, both are trying to make the transition. Seagate a lot easier that they bought a memory company up front. Western Digital paying higher premiums is going to be problematic. I just don't see how either one of these guys makes it long term. Seagate is the stronger of the two. Western Digital still has always the issue of being one earnings call away from being back down to 35 bucks and then probably years of selling like Sears or Kmart or all the rest of them unless they come up with some kind of technology for memory that no one else has. There's no sign that these guys are spending in the capex area that would make you think that they are going to have one big movement. Really, these guys are going to be sold out for memory producers and anybody that can't get in and have their own fab for making their own products, probably going to pay too much for memory and it will be very tough for them to ever make a living in that business. Okay. What else do we have out here? Question about Microsoft. Keep those cards and letters coming. So Joe wants to know about Microsoft. So let's take a look at that. Again, just everybody miserably short these leaders. I don't understand. You don't want to short companies that have lots of cash and are making lots of money. They will eventually pull back, but they won't be the first to pull back. They will probably be the last to pull back and they'll probably eventually at one point, they'll be the last guy that buys 10 shares of the stock at the very high and you get a very nice pullback in it. But the question is, do you see anything in it other than light volume? And the answer is nothing that bucks the trend. You've got three gaps back to 132. Whenever this thing does kind of start moving back, I suspect that that 132 is the next good level to probably buy the stock and long-term support. It's just been going up on light volume for far too long. Unfortunately, the markets are kind of like a big rubber band and that is you can stretch it. You can stretch it. You can stretch it. Eventually it's going to break and when it does, it's generally fairly painful. Until then, it's all fun and games until someone loses an eye. What else do we have that we want to look at here? Let's do this. No, we're going to the break anyway. We've got one segment left. We'll be back with Tom O'Brien at 330. We'll be talking about technology. You have some interesting ideas. A lot of people have been asking me, what a rather large company is planning to do? to do. And we kind of hear a little bit more about that this week. Anyway, we've got one more segment. If you really hurry and don't wait right now, call 877-927-6640. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, six and three months. 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Netflix may have made a couple of of errors in long term judgment. I don't know if they could have ever avoided it. But certainly putting all the money over the last couple of years and especially 18 months in content for specialized countries that isn't usable in the English speaking side of the business may be problematic. And that was really where they started having issues in the last earnings call where really kind of reversions come back down and gone sideways. But no real change on what they're doing. I think a lot of people on Wall Street are thinking, well, you know what? Maybe the hot heyday of being able to be the monopoly in town is over. But yeah, could you get one more push back up to 308? Question is whether or not people are going to be able to actually do what they want to do, which has been kind of subscribing for a month and then not subscribing as soon as they binge watch whatever they want to watch. They're going to try to split that stuff over several months. I don't know what stops you from watching the first or waiting until all of them are on Netflix and then watching it. I guess if you have to watch it today, maybe that's it. But I don't think that goes very far. But we'll talk about this and many other things. Tom O'Brien at 330. In the meantime, so when you can not when you have to, we will see you here Monday. Same that channel. Same that time.