 What's going on and welcome to the solo shot my name is Tom Vecchio We be three game MLB slates night lock is set for 9 at 38 as always This is one of the many shows on the Fandal podcast network You can find that anywhere whether it's Apple podcasts whether it's Spotify you name it Make sure to give it a like follow or subscribe the video version can be found on the Fandal YouTube page We found on Fandal TV plus can be found on Fandal comm slash watch You can follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one Before we hop into things snap into action this NFL season with Fandal America's number one sports book right now new customers get $200 and bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet That's $200 and bonus bets win or lose if you've been thinking about joining Fandal There's no better time to get in on the action The app is easy to use and there's a wide range of betting options including spreads player props overrunters and more So visit Fandal comm and kick off the NFL season Fandal official partner of the NFL must be 2 1 plus and present in select state's Fandals offering online sports wagering in Kansas under agreement with Kansas our casino LLC first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued as now withdraw the bonus bets that expire seven days at their seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot Fandal comm gambling problem call 100 gambler or visit Fandal comm slash RG in Colorado I want Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee or Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next Step 2 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona call 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc PG org slash chat in Connecticut in Indiana call 1809 with it call 1 800 5 2 2 4 7 0 0 order visit chaos gambling health comm in Kansas in Louisiana call 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop visit md gambling help dot org in Maryland Visit 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia or call 105 2 2 4 7 0 0 in Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling helpline MA dot org or call 800 3 2 7 5 0 5 0 4 24 7 support Massachusetts Or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why or text hope and why in New York? Alright, let's jump in to tonight's three game MLB slid again lock is set for 9 at 38 We have a very small slate to start the week any obviously an interesting lock time set for 9 38 p.m. Eastern three West Coast games tonight Texas at the LA Angels Houston at Seattle San Diego at San Francisco. We are a hundred percent clear of weather Seattle playing in a dome. It's super nice in LA. It's a little bit cooler in San Francisco But there's no ringing in the forecast for any of these so really really straightforward when it comes to weather tonight again a small three game slate obviously the match up for Houston and Seattle is like playoff scenario for both of these teams along with Texas all these teams vying for the ALS the wild card Whatever it might be. Let's jump into pitching on tonight's slate, which is oddly Extremely strong for a three game slate starting off Blake Snell at eleven point five Louise Castillo at ten point eight Logan Webb at ten point two Justin Verlander's nine point seven and then we have John Gray eight thousand and Patrick sainte-bald seven point five Snell's on his way to the NL Cy Young Castillo's having an awesome year Logan Webb super solid picture Verlander solid picture as well It's easy to say that Snell and Castillo are the best pitching options on tonight's slate Snell coming in with a thirty one point seven percent strike area is absolutely awesome He's a thirteen point five percent walk rate, which again has been his issue not only this year But throughout his entire career. He's only allowing point seven eight home runs per nine not too much of an issue for him there He does have a four point zero eight Sierra skill interactive era and ultimately He's not getting burned too much by that thirteen and a half percent walk rate with a very solid 43.8% ground ball rate and fifty two point three percent medium contact rate Snell is awesome again. He's on his way to the NL Cy Young this year Almost certainly gonna be winning that the issue. I have with Blake Snell is that he's 11,500 and we have a very small three game slate So it's pretty easy to say that Snell's in a great matchup There's no doubt about it when we look at him going up against San Francisco They come in with a twenty four point eight percent strike rate with their current act of roster versus left-handed pitching Which is the sixth worst in the league. He's on the road in San Francisco, which is a fantastic pitchers park We're basically checking off every single box We could possibly want when it comes to Blake Snell except his salary when we're dealing with it above 11,000 on a small three game slate. So on a normal slate We would say Blake Snell could be the clear SP one You know considering the matchups that we have for some of these other pitchers But we also have to factor in that if we roster Blake Snell We're gonna be really searching for some value and we only have three games on the slate Now Luis Castillo has also been awesome this year coming in at ten point eight tonight He has also been one of the top pitchers in the league coming with the twenty seven point three percent striker Eight six point six percent walk rate one point two four home runs per nine allowed He is a three seven zero Sierra skill interactive era that is better than Blake Snell We also see Castillo with a few fly balls at forty two point four percent his ground ball rate is at thirty nine point four percent So just slightly a fly ball pitcher This is the first season since he has been in the major leagues that he's actually showing to have more fly balls compared to ground ball So I do expect that fly ball number to regress his career fly ball rate is at thirty one percent and stop at forty two point four percent this year His ground ball rate for his career is at fifty point three percent and this year. It's at thirty nine point four percent So he's allowing way more fly balls this season than he has at literally any point isn't in his entire career He's still majority a medium contact pitcher at forty eight point two percent his career number is at forty nine percent So he's right in line with a medium contact. It's just a little too many fly balls this year from him Which is I want to say a clear outlier given what he's shown over the past And he's been under one home run per nine in each of the last season of last three seasons and in 2019 He was only at one point zero four home runs per nine So the home runs this year. I want to say our clear outlier for Luis Castillo Love his salary Love what he's been doing on the mound his matchup is a little bit more difficult going up against Houston who come up with a 20% strike array their current actor roster versus right-handed pitching, which is the fourth lowest in the league They are a very disciplined team at the plate not giving way any chance of theirs coming with a 111 WRC plus versus righties Which is the fifth best of the league and they come in with a 176 team ISO Which is the set odd the 10th best in the league with their current act of roster versus righties So there's no doubt Castillo has a more difficult matchup compared to Blake Snell But the salary for the least Castillo is much more favorable when again We're gonna be searching for every bit of salary relief that we could possibly find now Logan Webb is here as well and There's no doubt that Logan Webb is a really solid real-life pitcher But his fantasy upside Doesn't match what Castillo or Snell brings with Logan Webb coming with a 22.9% strike array a 3.8% walk rate is so so low He is not letting anyone on for free, which is awesome only 0.87 homeruns per nine He has a 3.21 Sierra, which is the best among these top three pitchers is a 61.6% ground ball rate and a 53.1% medium contact rate When the balls get hit off a Logan Webb, he is not allowing any damage He's not allowing any runners on for free. He can cruise to six seven innings one earn run The issue is that he's may not be pushing for eight nine ten strikeouts. He's gonna have five or six So at ten point two if it comes between Castillo and Webb Ultimately, I want to roll with Castillo simply due to his strikeout ability in yes It's a more difficult matchup going up against Houston, but we want the fantasy points here and that lies with Louise Castillo Now Justin Verlander is 9.7 We can say that he doesn't have as high of a strikeout rates or we know that we can say he has he doesn't have as high of a Strikeout rate compared to any of these other pitches at 21.1% this year Still only 6.6% walk rate, which is great 1.08 homeruns per nine, which is great 4.48 Sierra and a 44.7% fly ball rate along with the 51.7% medium contact rate Verlander is a good option and I think on most other slates We'd probably be overlooking him simply due to his match against Seattle Atlanta But certainly has a lot of power and just given the other options around him, but on tonight's late Due to his salary. I actually have a little bit of interest in Verland So while Snell is the best pitcher on tonight's slate and has a great matchup to really accentuate that strikeout upside Going against San Francisco His salary may not fit into roster construction up at eleven point five So I want to put Castillo one tonight due to a salary and his individual strikeout upside Snell is going to be there at 2a and I'm actually going to put him near with Verlander at 2b And this strictly comes down to Verlander salary and 9.7 because the Verlander can limit the damage and get to six innings with five six strikeouts against Seattle That actually is really enticing when it comes to a lot of construction Logan Webb again is a super solid pitcher He just doesn't have the same fantasy upside that Castillo or Snell has and frankly I'd rather get up to Snell and try and just go for as much value as possible then go to Logan Webb. So Castillo one Snell slash Verlander 2a 2b Logan Webb at 3 I have no interest in John Gray. I have no interest in Patrick Sandoval tonight and frankly, you know That's where we're going to be looking for stacks So when it comes to tonight's late in terms of the stacking or what teams are going to be looking at It's it's looking pretty clear that At least from you know, my initial assessment of things that Texas is going to be the chalk stack of tonight's slate and Then it's going to be one offs in terms of filling out the rest of your lives So maybe four hit three or four hitters from Texas and maybe you go with like a four two one one stack You're not you might not be going with a full four four stack for two teams or four three one stack It might be a four two one one or you might go Four two two whatever might be I think it's me a priority of a Texas stack tonight for a lot of people and then we'll move into You know, just some one-off searching for a little bit of power or two-man stack Whatever it might be. So when it comes to Patrick Sandoval for the Los Angeles Angels He has a nineteen point eight percent strikeout rate this season, which is below the league average He has a ten point eight percent walk rate, which is bad above the league average He doesn't allow a lot of fly balls or a lot of homeruns only a point seven six homeruns per nine He has a super solid forty seven point two percent ground ball rate fifty three point three percent medium contact Three the issue with Patrick Sandoval is that his babbath is at three oh eight He allows runners on for free and then he's the kind of picture that gets hit around a lot again It may not be home runs, but it's gonna be walk with that ten point eight percent walk rate Single double walk the whole sort when it comes to Patrick Sandoval the home run upside may not necessarily be there for every Hitter going up against Patrick Sandoval, but the ability to get runners on base constantly get the ball in action and then play for Texas is really what we should be seeing So when it comes to Texas, obviously, this is where I think again a lot of the people will be prioritizing The stacking and yes They do have some expensive options up at the top really with three of them the three ideal hitters We'd probably get on tonight's slate with Corey Seeger at four point four Adoles Garcia at three point six and Marcus Simeon at three point six I think that's where a lot of people are gonna be truly prioritizing Getting a stack from Texas now. This is not to say that we can only go into those hitters again Depending on what you're doing a pitching if you decide to play a pay up for Blake Snell You know getting all three of these hitters specifically Corey Seeger is gonna be tough He's four point four. I think Corey Seeger may be one of the best plays on the entire slate Given his matchup and given his the level of consistency and upside that he has So Seeger four point four Garcia at three point six Simeon at three point six are all great But Jung at three point three Garver at three point two Hyme at three point one all of them should be in plates And I along with Nate low at three thousand dollars and if Evan Carter's in the lineup at three thousand He's been hot as of late the recent call-up for them. You could certainly be looking there But as we move further down, this is where the value from Texas might be necessary with leotis avarice at 2800 or Ezekiel Duran at 2700 depending on really what your lineup has the ability to afford again depending on what you're doing with pitching So sandball should be a pretty clear pitcher to be attacking tonight on the other side John Gray like isn't a pitcher that I'm worried about and I think you could be Looking to attack him. The issue is that like it comes down to the lack of power and the lack of Essentially excitement when it comes to the angels lineup where it could be a full 10 15 game slate And I don't think I'd be looking at anyone from the angels for any bit of upside where they clearly lack power Yeah, they're affordable. So maybe if you just want to take a one or two hitters here or there Brandon Drury I think it's fine You're getting a rental grid trick. I think it's fine Again, these players aren't super exciting when it comes to overall fantasy upside begin some of their salaries Do play favorably into roster construction. The next question beads like where else do we go? You know, we have seen verlander struggle at times this year. Could we go to some of Seattle? Sure, you know Louise Castillo has struggled with home runs and fly balls as I mentioned his home run his fly ball rate are way higher This year compared to what he's shown throughout the course of his career now Those should regress as time goes on but he's currently struggling like does that present upside for your Don Alvarez? Kyle Tucker two lefties who we know of plenty of tremendous power upside Versus righties and again Castillo is awesome. He's just happened to be struggling with fly balls right now So this is again where I would say The one offs or the smaller two-man stacks could come into play for a team like Houston Yes, your Don Alvarez is awesome. Kyle Tucker is awesome. But you know getting to someone like Jose Braille I think it's a fine option and Alex Bregman at 3,500 This is also a viable and totally fine option. Jose Altuve I don't have a whole lot of interest in if I'm paying up for someone at 44 I prefer to be Corey Seger, but if I'm realistically going to someone from Houston It's probably just gonna be your Don at 39 or Kyle Tucker at 3700 and the same thing can be said about Seattle Verlander is good and he's not as good as he once was if you're looking to take some shots Yes, it'd be with Julio Rodriguez at 4,300 if you can afford him But no, that may not always be the case and I think a you hand your Suarez at 2,900 or Teosca Hernandez at 2,900 Both of them could be in play and I guess you could say the same thing about What you know San Diego, you know, you're not super interested in rostering them as a full stack because you know I think we'd all agree that Logan Webb is a pretty solid picture But if you want to go to a one-off with one-soto, you want to go to a one-off with Fernando Tatis That is certainly fine or you're throwing Machado throwing Xander Bogart's in the mix as well So I think Texas this is where Texas kind of shines tonight in terms of their priority as a stack getting a full four-man Texas stack in there and then one or two hitters from Houston one hitter from Seattle one hitter from San Diego kind of mix and match the one officer or smaller two-man stacks Just because a some of these hitters are expensive. We're not gonna be able to afford full four-man stacks from Houston and Texas You know, and then we want to obviously pay up for pitching So tonight's late is certainly very interesting because we actually have amazing pitchers on tonight's late But we're just starved for value because it's only a three-game slate Let's get to some dinger calls to close things out I'm going with your Don Alvarez. Like I said, Castillo is awesome He really is but the fly balls and the home runs are clearly an issue for him this season So I'll be continuing to look to you know continuously looking to at least get a few hitters going up against Luis Castillo There's no doubt about that and then let's go with Marcus Simeon for the Texas Rangers As I said Patrick Sandoval isn't a massive fly ball pitcher by any means but eventually it'll get to the angels bullpen We're not worried about the angels bullpen. We're interested in a Texas stack And I think Simeon's gonna be in a good spot for the power and a fly balls that he truly has shown this season All right, so that does it for today's podcast We will be back tomorrow with a bigger slate for MLB. This is the final week of MLB season Of course, there's still plenty of other sports going on whether it's NFL whether it's UFC Make sure to tune into the Fandal podcast network because we have it shows up for those Obviously football throughout the week with Jim Sonnis and Brandon Cadulla Austin Swain is back doing UFC full-time That is back in full swing. So make sure you are subscribed Of course, give it a like follow or subscribe on Apple podcast Whether it's Spotify the video version we found on the Fandal YouTube page We found on Fandal TV plus we found on found on Fandal comm slash watching follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio One and it's the next time. Good luck in your contests