 Welcome to Below the Line, Griffith University's independent, comprehensive expert analysis of the 2019 federal election campaign. On today's show, my colleagues, panel of experts, are going to discuss four of our top ten seats to watch. These are the seats of Dixon, Brisbane, Dawson and Herbert. We're going to have a look at the issues and themes that are emerging in the campaign here in Queensland. And we're going to take a really good look at a wildcard seat, which may come into contention on the 18th of May. Let's move first to the seat of Dixon. Jenny, all eyes are on the seat of Dixon with the incumbent Peter Dutton. What are we going to see on May 18th? Well, I don't think we'll have a result on May 18th. I mean, as soon as Peter had the failed candidacy, as running as Prime Minister, all seats were going, all eyes were going to be on Dixon. He holds it by a very slender margin of 1.7%. It's one of those northern Brisbane seats where it's a very mixed bag. So you have this kind of new urban areas that vote for Labor around like Brake Park or Kalanga or Marumba Downs. And then you get into more regional areas. So you've got Dabra, Albany Creek and into Samford, which go more for the LNP. So it's not a kind of a straightforward kind of seat. Dutton's working very hard in that campaign absolutely everywhere. His core flutes, a huge amount of advertising. He claimed that he'd assembled a war chest of $650,000. What is going on on the ground? What's the action? He's been such a polarizing figure, Jenny. He's running against a strong Labor candidate in Alley, France. What's the vibe on the ground? Well, I don't think he's been that visible at community events. So he's got the money to spend on those kind of external parts of the campaign. And he hasn't wanted to get out there and engage with Alley, France as far as I can tell at local kind of events around different issues. Get up there. And I just think in Queensland that could be a mixed blessing. And I think after what happened with the, you know, the anti-Idani caravan, people don't like being told by people outside the electorate how to vote. Yeah, Tracy, that's a real Queensland phenomenon. And we often talk about, you know, many of us rail against, you know, the Queensland's different interpretation from, you know, the gallery or from interstate. But I think Jenny makes an excellent point. People don't like being told what to do from people who aren't from here. No, absolutely. I completely agree. So do you agree that that Adani caravan was, you know... I think it was a miscalculation. There's a lot of people around the country who care about this issue. But for people particularly in North Queensland, it's also about jobs and employment for them. And so, environmental issues, while I'm not saying they don't care about those, there's also, you know, the other factors to consider for them. And having Bob Brown and his caravan of well-intentioned people, I'm sure, coming up and arguing, you know, telling them how they should vote and, you know, protecting the reef that they live with every day, I think it was a mistake. It was an absolute gift, wasn't it, to one nation, Jacob, don't you think? And also to, you know, to Matt Canavan, and we've seen very little of the national party because there's such a problem for...there's such a liability for Scott Morrison. You know, what did you make of that as a sort of a political opportunity? Yeah, yeah, it's tricky. I mean, these sort of Northern Queensland seats really are the epicenter of this sort of environment versus economy debate that sort of sprung up and that the coalition in particular is really keen to engage in that debate on those terms. And so, yeah, the caravan was a really good way and a good opportunity for especially national MPs like Matt Canavan to really seize on, you know, it's one or the other. And such a shambolic kind of, you know, it's been so shambolic among the LNP in those seats. We've got, you know, George Christensen in Dawson, all the controversy about him spending a good deal of his time in the Philippines. You know, Michelle Landry invoking the spectre of a Barnaby Joyce return. I mean, it was a total gift. Yes. And as you say, Tracey, I think really well-intentioned. It sort of reminds me of Batman, you know, the Batman by-election being all about the adult in mind, which, you know, is sort of emblematic, don't you think? How much did Peter Dutton's comments about Ali France using her disability as an excuse damage him, do you think? I think he's not a man who takes a backward step. So the fact that he actually, after a couple of days, had to come out and issue an apology, I thought was very telling. And he also immediately gave her a profile she hadn't had before. So what happened was there were millions of newspaper stories explaining who she was, explaining her background, explaining how she got the disability, protecting her son. It really wasn't good for him. And it seemed to also fuel some online donations for her in a way that she's made much of. So, you know, other issues we should be looking for in the seat of Dixon. I mean, a big commitment in the budget about the Bruce Highway upgrade, you know, health and the congestion kind of, the CBI's, the congestion-busting infrastructure that is arguably a bit delayed from the 2013-14 budget. But we could sort of talk about that another time. You know, what else, Tracey, should we be looking for in the seat of Dixon on the 18th? Well, I'll be looking at it as an interesting barometer as to where the conservative liberals sit now. You know, we have seen successive parliaments being dominated by the factions that the liberals and the nationals have, even though they don't officially call them factions. And, you know, and we've seen a lot of influence from the conservative side of that come through on a whole range of different policies. And the spill on Turnbull, Dutton's support of Morrison, and first of all, he's not him putting himself in hand. Yeah, I think it's going to be really an indication of whether or not people are atide of that kind of, you know, really base politicking and to whether, which I think is the case, the countries moved on from those really sloganistic, simplistic debates. They actually are worried about climate change. They do actually want to see action. And and I think, you know, it will be interesting to see if that results in his vote declining. Look, it's such a temptation to stay on the seat of Dixon, but we better move on. One of our other hot seats to watch that Griffith experts have picked is the seat of Brisbane, you know, held by first term MP Trevor Evans, you know, it's gone kind of both ways. It's it's a seat that's redistributed as the area is gentrified. You know, it's certainly the seat that I live in. Trevor Evans was a Dutton staffer, National Retail Association. You know, he's reasonably popular, you know, is holding the seat by you know, a reasonable margin. It should have been in normal circumstances. A safe seat, he consolidated the position. I don't think that's the case now. What do you think is going on in Brisbane? And it's an interesting mix of suburbs, isn't it, in terms of sort of, you know, Kelvin Grove, New Farm, Tenerife, you know, around Ash sort of new market and some of the Wilson, some of the property issues, I think, are salient there. I thought the Frankencredits issue could really play there. What do people think? I think it's interesting, because normally those in a city seat, say in Sydney or Melbourne that are likely to turn over because they have socially conservative liberal members. So it's the Tony Abbott thing is the classic thing. So the electorate's moved on. Whereas in Brisbane, you don't have that. So Trevor Evans was, of course, on the right side of the same sex marriage debate. He's more at the small old liberal end of the Liberal Party. So it's surprising to me that it's come into contention because it is such a gentrifying seat. The demographics are on his side, but the ALP have made it a priority seat. So they've spotted something there. They wouldn't be putting scarce resources into a seat like that, that they didn't have a chance. And the ALP candidate, Paul Newbury, is he's got a PhD, he's a specialist in the transition to renewable energy. Energy. So obviously climate change must be playing into that somewhere. And of course, amazingly, Andrew Bartlett, former senator, recently recycled senator is again running. He's running as the green and the green vote in that seat could be quite significant. Tracy, what do you think? No, I think that's right. I think the green vote will be significant and preferences will, you know, their preferences may well truly help the ALP. And yeah, and Bartlett for the Senate would be Oh, is he going to be in the Senate? No, no, no, he's actually in the House of Reps, terribly sorry. And he's a local. Yes, he's a local from that area. Yeah, that's right. So, I mean, I think I have been seeing some polling that actually indicates that, you know, the greens are very hopeful for Brisbane, but whether or not that that actually holds that to be the case, I think we were to see. But, you know, if Trevor Evans loses that seat, I mean, Labour's had a pretty mixed group of candidates in that seat. Some pretty ordinary candidates, frankly, in the last few elections. I think they got a primary vote of 26 or 27 percent in Brisbane at 2016 poll, which was, you know, a historic low. But if Trevor Evans loses that seat, it will be really about the Turnbull leadership challenge, don't you think? Which I think Turnbull would have had a fair bit of support among the people at Brisbane. Yes, exactly. And that is that demographic where you have a lot of, as you've indicated, wealthy retirees who might be a bit worried about franking credits. But they have had my big years in the breeze at the grocery store about what the burgers of Brisbane are thinking. I think it's a hard one to pick. But, you know, we really debated it, didn't it, in terms of it should be in our list. And I think it's also the thing that there was such a swing at the last election, it is likely to come back a bit. All right, we better move on. See, we can stay all day on each of them. Tracy Herbert, the seat of Herbert in and around Townsville. The most marginal seat in all of Australia, Herbert, at the moment. Cathy O'Toole won it for Labor with 37 votes, so it's a margin of 0.02 percent. And she won it due to one nation preferences last time. It took a month for her result to actually finally be confirmed by the Electoral Commission. So I think it's going to be a really, really interesting seat. Polling indicates that at the moment, the LNP and Labor are on around 50, 50. But the United Australia Party is up there spending a lot of money up there and the preferences from them may well push the LNP over the line. And they've got a candidate in Philip Thompson, who was a war veteran. He's very articulate. He's coming out very strongly about Adani. So is O'Toole, mind you. I mean, you know, she signed the pledge. Yes. So, you know, those are the sorts of factors that are going to really influence people. But for people outside Queensland, it's very important to understand that Townsville is always such a complex kind of community, but an enormous army presence. Yes, absolutely. An extraordinary army base there, isn't there? Yes. That's right. I mean, I think if you had to use a few words to sum up Herbert, it would be resources and reef. Those are the two words, I think, that really, and that's what the debate, that's what the discussion, that's what the argument's on and, you know, which way it will play, I think, is going to be very interesting. So how, in the wake of Queensland-Nickel, centred on that community, can the Palmer United Party, sorry, I beg your pardon, the United Australia Party, this time around, explain the psychology of that to me, please. I do not believe that people have that short-term memory. I mean, I really don't. But when you actually see people being interviewed up there on the streets, they're talking about the fact that Clive Palmer understands them. You know, I don't know how they can possibly see that. Clive Palmer, he's spending a fortune, an absolute fortune. And it's all about for him, I think, ensuring that mining continues in the Guadalupe Basin. I think that if you had to sum down his policies, I think that's maybe his main priority, to actually ensure that a party gets elected to government that actually, you know, continues to promote or allow mining in a region where there's a lot of coal, sure, but there's also, you know, a heating planet. Well, they're also just experiencing the most extraordinary natural disasters as well. And, you know, that whole region has been devastated and not for the first time. Jacob, what do you make of Herbert and the Palmer United and the One Nation presence, I guess, in that seat? Yeah, I think it's really interesting. I've, yeah, been focusing on the whole Queensland and the Nickel of it all. Like Tracy, I sort of, I find it a little bit hard to reconcile, you know, Queensland Nickel is based in Townsville. Its main refinery is in Herbert as well. It's difficult to see workers who are directly affected by all of this living... And whose entitlements haven't been paid? Yeah, like still waiting to be paid. It's hard to see an electorate choosing even a portion of an electorate so affected, choosing to go towards Clive Palmer. But, yeah, when you drill it down to there, is still a demand for mining and the resources industry? There's a demand for jobs. That's what it is. There's a demand for jobs. And I'm not sure that the other side have articulated well enough the fact that renewable energies will also offer jobs, perhaps more than a Dhani. You know, there's been massive amounts of employment figures thrown around by a Dhani. The investments by the state government and the solar and renewables. But, you know, when you really drill it down, it's probably going to be more like 1,000 jobs. You know, it's not going to be in the thousands. And how many of the people up there who aren't very skilled workers will have those jobs. But, I mean, Jenny, do you think the Labor, it comes down to how disengaged voters are? That it's actually, in the end, it's about advertising and it's about name recognition. Well, I was going to say there must be an issue with the ALP candidate that she's not cutting through. She's a woman. She's from the left. She's got a strong community background. She has, but there must be something that she's not pulling. And I would be tempted to say mainly working-class men and women back to the fold. And I don't know the seat well enough to understand why she's not having that appeal and that they're looking for these kind of, dare I say, fringe parties. But, yeah, she's just not being able to maintain that Labor vote. And we've alluded to the seat of Dawson, Jacob. But this is the one that you've been very focused on. Tell us about the seat of Dawson and its colorful, incumbent George Christensen's chances of holding on. Yeah, yeah, it's a tricky one. So Dawson, of course, neighbors her bit. The northern end of it touches sort of part of Townsville. Then it goes down the coast through a few regional towns and then into the top part of Gladstone. So an interesting demographic, reef and resources also quite well describes its industry. One in three, male workers in Dawson are employed in either the mining or logistics industry. So that's obviously big. But then there's also a huge eco-tourism industry based on the reef and then places like Ailey Beach as well. So this real tension between the environment and mining really does play out very strongly there. In Dawson, you've got the sitting member of George Christensen who has been a very interesting candidate. He's sitting at the moment on a margin of about 3.4%. So he's a little bit safer than... Which has been progressively whittled down over. It was a much safer seat, wasn't it? Yes, yes. So it's being whittled away. But currently, he's a little bit safer than either Cathy O'Toole and Herbert or Michelle Landry and Capricorn. Has the news, the fact that Christensen has spent an inordinate amount of time out of the country, has that resonated in polls? Has that seemed to be something that voters have considered? Not that I've seen... Yeah, it's tricky. He's been nicknamed the member for Manila based on the amount of time that he's spent in the Philippines. But yeah, it is really interesting and it's going to be really interesting to see where the protest votes in Dawson go because I think that's what will ultimately decide it. In 2016, he got about 42% of the primary vote. Yeah. We would expect that it would be even lower this time around. So he will be relying on preferences and it will be a question of where do those preferences come from. One Nation didn't put a candidate up in 2016. They have put a candidate up this time. And that's quite close, isn't it, to where the state seat was won by the One Nation member? Yeah, yeah. So similar sort of area. So potentially One Nation. It's interesting, George Christensen, because of his... He's deeply, deeply conservative and so you would expect that some people who would be tempted to vote in One Nation in any other seat might still stay with the LNP because George Christensen has been so vocally against issues like gay marriage or something like that. And I mean, he really has styled himself as the maverick candidate, hasn't he, very active in the campaign against Turnbull. He's been an absolute gift for Labor senators, though, and I think Murray Watt has been particularly effective in lining Christensen up and keeping a real focus on his travel arrangements. And it's also drawn the attention of the AFP and the security agencies, as we saw in Senate estimates. Every election, the Griffith University team picks a wildcard and we debate it and we argue about it, don't we? We do. But this time we've settled on the seat of Ryan. The seat of Ryan is the 2019 wildcard. Let's take a look at it. So here we are in the heart of the federal electorate of Ryan. Traditionally a very safe, liberal hold, but this time around, a combination of federal and local factors are combining to bring this very blue ribbon seat up for grabs. To give us the analysis of why this is the case, we're speaking to Dr. Tracy Arclay. Look, Ryan is a very safe, liberal seat. It still is held on a margin of 9%. So it would require quite a swing to unseat the candidate who's standing for the LNP. It's also a really interesting election in that we don't have an incumbent. Jane Prentice was quite unceremoniously dumped and Julian Simmons was pre-selected as the candidate for this seat. Angering, I think, probably some women voters, particularly with all the stuff about the Liberal Party not being great with women, it wasn't a particularly good look. The fact that the seat is tending to be a more green seat than many others in Queensland, I mean, we're up for an interesting election, I think. While Ryan is traditionally a safe, liberal seat, Dr. Arclay says factors such as the way Jane Prentice lost pre-selection after successfully winning the past three elections have potentially changed that. Julian Bishop being treated not the best way in the leadership tussle. And then Jane Prentice being dumped for a young man who she and her valedictory address alluded to as being impatiently ambitious, perhaps does play into the narrative that the LNP has a problem with women. Local discontent has bubbled to the surface in the usually conservative seat. It's been a cute, if not a little bit strange, video put out talking about where's Jane. Where's Jane? Where's Jane? So there's been a few things like that that's been happening. Many will watch with interest to see how much ground the Greens Party gains this time around, particularly in the wake of the party's success gaining a seat with similar electoral boundaries as Ryan in the recent state election. A lot of people, I think, think it's going to play a part. It's going to be interesting to see how much it does. Certainly, we have a Greens member now for the seat of Maywa, which is a seat that used to be, you know, Indra Pilly. So I think the Greens will be a player in Ryan to what degree that is and whether or not they can get enough support to actually be able to upset the election, I think, you know, is a very long bow. However, with local issues, traditionally not holding much sway in federal elections, Dr. Arclay says the battle is still too close to call, particularly with the lack of an incumbent also adding to the mix. Came as quite a surprise to many, many people, including, I think, some people inside the parliament who were shocked by the pre-selection of Julian Simmons and to replace her so suddenly. She had won the seat very, very strongly. She didn't need preferences. She was an assistant minister who was doing a lot of work with the National Disability Insurance Scheme. She's also had a career outside of politics first, so she brought with her a lot of that kind of background in business that we don't see in many candidates or at least we're seeing that less happening today. The replacement is, I think, what you'd call the new kind of politician that we're seeing, someone that has been steeped in the politics of the party. There's a degree of personal vote when you've got strong incumbents and so when you lose that, you're basically, you know, levelling the playing field just a little bit. Julian Simmons, I don't think, will get the same level of support, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he required some preferences to get over the line. So, of course, the big issue is that package showed a Tracey and you nailed it, I think. You know, the dis-endorsement of, or the challenge, the successful challenge by Julian Simmons, former staffer to Jane Prentice, you know, the LNP's woman problem. How much of an issue is this going to be more generally, and perhaps across the four seats that we've talked about today? Ryan is my seat. I live in that electorate and I've been, you know, listening to the voices around the shopping centres and talking to people here and there. Political scientists do research when they go to shop. Absolutely, absolutely. He leaves paper with the aisles, kind of. Every opportunity to learn more. I have to honestly say that I haven't detected a huge amount of anger amongst normal people about Jane Prentice, although things like that little video does show that there was a groundswell of support for her. And I think it was a shock, the fact that someone who had won so, without needing preferences, had won three elections, had been an assistant minister, was suddenly gone. For a 34-year-old young man who clearly saw his pathway to the Lord Merrell teeth watered. Yes, exactly. Well, yeah, that's certainly what it looks like. Someone who'd been quite active, though, in the council, on the planning committee, lots of controversial decisions around the planning committees. It's an opportunity to make friends, but it's also an opportunity to make a lot of enemies. And the electorate of Ryan, one of the things that, when I look at the posts of Ryan, it's the traffic. You know, it's those sorts of everyday issues that people are getting fed up with. You know, it takes you maybe an hour to traverse Moggill Road at certain times of the day. You know, we're in a normal time and take you 20 minutes to get the same distance. So this is partly the pressures of population growth in the southeast that we've seen and are being dealt with in the context of the Seq City deal, but the lag in infrastructure investment. And clearly his big slogan saying, Julian Simmons will fix roads, you know, indicates that he is aware of that. I'm not quite sure I had this vision of him out there with the shovel fixing the potholes. Well, he wouldn't be the first former Lord, you know, Mayor Alaska to so do in our context. The woman issue in Dawson or in Dixon, you know, to what extent is that, you know, I keep thinking that women and young people are gonna be the decisive force in this election. You know, we've got the very interesting example in Ryan, you know, what about the other Seq? Well, I think Peter Dutton was seen to be bullying Ali France. Yeah. And obviously the word came through fairly quickly that he had to kind of retract what he said. But, you know, it just endlessly plays into that. And I just don't understand with the LNP, they understand it's a problem, but they're putting a flashing light on it all the time. All the time, yeah. And one of the best and most effective campaigners if we think back over recent campaigns has been Julie Bishop. That's right. You know, totally missing on the evening coverage. So that's very interesting. I still think it's got some way to play out. Yeah, I think that's right. And I think progressively over time, you know, people are going to start, I mean, Jacinda Raidern is a great example of a different kind of politics where those softer, by softer I don't mean less important, but those softer, intuitive skills that emotional intelligence, I think that we've been missing in Australian debates for a long time. And don't you think that's generational as well, to some extent? You know, here's a woman who's not quite 40. Yeah, that's exactly right. And, you know, I mean, maybe there's opportunities this election with the extraordinary exodus of long-term members to see some generational change. And increasing numbers of young people in rolling to vote who are concerned about the sorts of issues that, you know, for a long time, the Liberal Nationals have not wanted to tackle climate change being the number one concern. I think those are the sorts of things that, you know, with this influx of new voters under the age of 30, I think they could really play a part. I mean, that's something we follow quite closely, isn't it, Jacob, in terms of the same-sex marriage plebiscite, then the state election and the, you know, the extraordinary change on the electoral role in some of these key seats. Yeah, yeah. And what's really interesting is that a lot of these new voters aren't being picked up in the polling that's done because the polls only use landlines a lot of the time. And, you know, millennial, I don't have a landline. Like, so it's, yeah, it will be interesting to see whether some of the polls are underestimating, and we know that younger voters traditionally are a bit more progressive. So it will be interesting to see whether the polls are underestimating that progressive vote in some of these really key seats. So what we do know at this stage is that preferences are going to be essential. Yes. Fundamental and perhaps never more important than in this campaign. But how do they work? I think it's really important for people to think about how their preferences are going to work, and Jacob's going to explain that for you now. Australia is one of the few countries that uses compulsory preferential voting for our elections. But what is it? Let's look at how it works in the House of Representatives. On your green ballot paper, you must rank all the candidates. Otherwise, your vote won't be counted. Number one for your first choice, number two for your second choice, and so on. When the votes are talented, if no candidate obtains more than 50% of first preference votes, then the one with the lowest number of votes is eliminated. The votes for that candidate are then distributed amongst the remaining candidates, according to second preferences. If there is still no one with a simple majority, the second-last candidate is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed as well. This continues until a candidate achieves a simple majority. The idea is that preferential voting results in an elected candidate who more closely represents the will of the people. So when you're voting, consider how your preferences might flow, as that could have a big impact on who gets elected. So we've talked a bit about the exodus of experience at this campaign, and of course, one of the big drivers of that is the Turnbull Leadership Challenge, and the rise of the hard-right, many argue, in the party. For people outside Queensland who looked at the Dutton Challenge, at the constant undermining of Turnbull, really, obviously, might ask the question, why does that happen here? Why has this group galvanized so strongly when the electorate is clearly not as conservative as they are? I guess it begs the question about what is left of moderate capacity within the LNP? I think, you know, if the Liberals went back to what they started to be, it was representing a group of people who were not trade unionists, were not blue-collar workers, but also weren't, you know, men, mainly, of the land, and over time, the party came to represent, I think, that kind of economic conservative but socially progressive voter. Since Abbott's election, that has progressively whittled away, and I think it's been really interesting. I mean, I don't know whether you describe Abbott as a conviction politician, but his convictions, certainly, I don't think, don't echo. He's an electorate for a start. You know, someone that's been around for a very long time, not being able to tattle the message, not being able to, because I think he does get out there and talk to people, but there is just something in his being that, you know, the things that he believes in, he can't let go of, and he's being left behind. Australians have moved on. It's a different kind of climate, and I don't think many of the Liberals have yet understood that. It's been put to me, Jenny, that the party, and of course, you know, the Liberals was always the weak coalition partner in Queensland, which is very important. And the National Party was always the dominant partner, and, you know, from the Beokyapetosan... Getting that to the Queensland difference thing again. Well, sure. You know, there'd been a financial drain as well, you know, over many years. So the Liberal part has never been that strong, always highly factionalised around personalities. But where do, you know, Tracey's talked about Waringa, where we've seen a, you know, and also in Malcolm Turnbull's seat? Redwood. Thank you, which is currently alluding to me. And also in the seat of Wentworth. You know, the emergence of, you know, effectively small-L Liberal independent candidates. We're not seeing that here. No, and I think that's interesting, and I think that's what makes Dixon a bit tricky, because in those other seats, those kind of socially progressive, economically conservative Liberals have somewhere to park their vote. So they can go to Zaleasteg or whatever and feel comfortable that she will represent them. Whereas in Queensland, it's still a stark choice. So you don't have that opportunity to park your vote, and I think it's a long call for disenfranchised and disenchanted Liberals to then go to Labor. And I think that's what's going to make it a bit tricky. And partly that's about the dominance of the left in Labor at the state level, isn't it, you know, where it's the dominant faction now. So, you know, so those state issues do echo into the sort of federal arena. Yes. And I think, I mean, people like Abbott and Dutton come from that hardball political culture. And I think we're seeing the dying death rows of that and the fact that Liberal women are just leaving in droves, some of them sitting members who are leaving. And not leaving quietly. Not leaving quietly. So I think in the next parliament, you're going to end up with a strong kind of, you know, crossbench of these very interesting, effective, Liberal-style, independent women, I think. Why is the LNP so flat-footed that it can't stretch out its arm and keep those people in the tent? And I think, you know, this is very interesting, Jacob. It's been put to me, and we think about, you know, George Christensen, Matt Canavan, you know, Stuart Robert, the sort of people who were core to the Dutton challenge. It's been put to me that they are old fogies, young old fogies. Is this something about being generationally out of step because of the deep immersion in career politics? What do you think is going on with this? You know, as Jenny says, they seem to flash a light on it. They don't seem to be able to understand. It alludes them. Yeah, it is interesting when you look at the histories of some of these candidates and their progression through the political wings of the party, rather than, you know, long and rich careers in the public service or even out in business and things like that. So it is interesting the environments in which candidates are being socialized and then the values that they are picking up as part of that process. And so, yeah, we would typically expect to see people of sort of Matt Canavan's generation to be perhaps a little bit more progressive, but when we don't see that, yeah, we raise questions why. Yeah, I mean, you alluded to the career politics experience in the Ryan package, Tracy. I mean, I think Ryan, had there been a strong, independent, socially progressive, the conservative candidate, they would have really given the two parties a run for their money, particularly the LNP, I think, at the moment. But there isn't one. So people either have the choice of voting greens and the seat has progressively voted greens. And there's a state overlay, it's the only green member in the... That's exactly Ryan, in Maywa. So, you know, the state seat of Maywa is part of Ryan. So, you know, there is a bit of a precedent there. But whether or not that, that's also in the Indo-Pili area that covers university students and covers, you know, a more urban population. Ryan is also quite a widespread electorate and there's also lots of other types of areas, acreage properties and things like that, and established families who... I'm not quite sure they'll be able to go for greens, although climate change really is an issue out there. Yeah. But there's still not the candidates in winnable seats for the LNP. No, that's right. I mean, that is a fascinating issue, isn't it? And we saw it in Victoria as well, this absolute incapacity to deal with the woman issue and the persistent denial of it, actually. And this should have been the symbolic turning point for the LNP this election. They should have pre-selected these kind of women who are now running as independent candidates. They should have gone all out to demonstrate we are now changing this pattern. Exactly. And they can't. They can't have some people progressing at the expense of others. And I think this might be the essential point that you're missing, Jenny. The campaign so far has really been a contrast of styles, hasn't it? Oppositions run small targets in recent Australian politics since the 1993 fight-back election. And Labor has been very clear, hasn't it, that it's going to come to government if it gets there through the front door. Labor's gone very strong on policy. How is that tactic working? Will this be seen as a mistake in the big wash-up if Bill Shorten doesn't become Prime Minister? What do you make of the policy rich versus policy-light dynamics? It's interesting. And I think that more policy debate in an election campaign is a refreshing change. I think what you were saying before, Tracey, the electorate seems to have moved past these three-word slogans and things like that. They are looking for a bit more meat in the debate. And so the fact that Labor is providing that, I think, is a good thing. What is interesting is that the Liberals haven't risen to meet that challenge. They've still kept a very tight ship talking about economic management and not a lot else. And we've seen in the past week or so, well, and criticising all the policies that Labor is outlining. So we've seen Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, because they're the only ones out in front of the camera. They're prompted to say, beyond economic management, what have you got? And you can see the journalists turning to that now, can't you? Beyond that, what's the agenda? What's the forward agenda? Well, it's in the budget papers. And they don't sort of want to get much outside that. But Labor have really bought themselves a fight with franking credits. But they've also gone out and explained it very well, both Chris Bowen and then the other night on Q&A, I saw Shorten, and they both, you know, they explained why they're doing that, because, you know, the reality is there aren't unlimited resources. And you've got to, as a country, decide where you want to spend money. And even though it's hard to take things away, I think it's a warning to future governments, though. Don't, when you've got a huge mining boom and you've got a lot of wealth coming in, give it away and give some tax, because it comes back to bite you. It might be decades later. But, you know, if that money had been spent instead, not on baby bonuses, not on, you know, giving retirees, you know, basically government money, it's another government payment. Well, I mean, Shorten shifted the narrative to subsidy. This is a subsidy. But he does, you know, he's trying to explain it. And in a way, I've been surprised that he's gone a bit harder. He's certainly sort of upped the ante around that rhetoric in the Leader's Debate last week here in Brisbane. Labor's also bought itself a very significant fight on negative gearing. And, you know, this is an assault the government would have us believe on nurses and police who seem to, and teachers who seem to be the primary negative gearers from what we hear in the debate. Do you think it'll be interpreted as a mistake in the wash-up? Look, I don't think the negative gearing is a carryover from the last campaign. So they have been consistent on that policy for two campaigns. We have to fundamentally change the structural setting of housing policy in Australia. And everyone understands that. Well, everybody's understood that for 30 years. And it's grandfathered. So really, I think that one is fine. And I think that won't be an issue. The retu... Oh, now I'm about to say the retiree tax. I think that has really pushed off a negative campaign which the LNP are jumping on with all those TV ads all the time. But I think this is the only path to government that the ALP have. They've been a very cohesive, consistent leadership team and shadow cabinet for a long time. They've done the policy work. Bill Shorten has identified and talks about the way we need new politics. And if they didn't demonstrate that during this campaign, it is really, it's... I think they're trying to do a circuit breaker from the past and they really have to walk that talk and say, we have put our policies out there. We're seeking a mandate. We're not hiding anything. Yes, which is the sort of the riffing off the... Still the 2013-14 budget of, you know, they made a commitment and then they came in and kind of didn't honour it. Let's talk about Clifeparma because we have to count drive anywhere along Moggill Road or anywhere else without seeing those yellow signs. Can you buy a seat in federal parliament in Australia? Yeah, the campaigns call for a lot of money and Clifeparma has been splashing around a ton of money. But campaigning is more than just advertising. You need actually some substance to that advertising. Oh, you have. Well, you would hope so. And so what I think will be interesting is when we get the results is, yeah, whether that has translated. We've seen him splash the money that hasn't been able to back it up with policy and our vote is buying that or not. And then... Oh, sorry. No, it wasn't yet to get... And as well as policy, you need to actually have an organisation of week. And this is a very thin, fragile kind of entity. Deeply personalised. Deeply personalised. I think he just must have thrown an ad in the paper and got a candidate in every seat. It's very hard to find out who these people are because they're all kind of deadlings. Well, it's also required them to sign an agreement that they'll pay back any expenses if they defect. $4,600, I believe. So, though he's made a whole lot of preference commitments, I mean, you need people out at every polling booth in every electorate for that to have any kind of bite. And, you know, and he's paid people in the past and he might pay people again. But you can't pay people to cover every polling booth in Queensland. So I think that's where some of this stuff falls down. And I think, you know, the ground game, which we haven't talked about at all, which Labor, of course, will be far, far stronger in, and they have really targeted the north of the state, haven't they? I mean, Shorten has done and the Shadow Cabinet have done, you know, town hall meeting after town hall meeting and been very visible. What impact, Tracey, on the day, will the ground game difference have? Look, I'm not sure about what impact it will have. Hopefully it will have some impact because I think, you know, Clive Palmer spent a fortune and he's got double-page ads in papers like The Australian and all over the place. But he hasn't articulated really what he's going to do if he gets into Parliament. Whereas, you know, Labor have gone out there and they have tried to explain things. And for a political scientist, you know, government is a really serious business. It affects all of us. And you'd hope that people are listening, asking questions, challenging them, and that, you know, and that they're learning more about the process of government. And perhaps focusing on their record because he was comprehensively repudiated as the member for Fairfax. Yes. You know, with the very ambivalent record. Oh, and he didn't go to Parliament. So I don't understand why he's got this desperate drive to be a parliamentarian and actually not be there to vote on legislation. I don't understand that. It's approaching 600,000 Australians who've pre-polled vote. It may even be more by now. It ticked over to a million on a Tuesday. Oh, amazing. Yep, they're projecting five million by people who have voted before polling days. How do we understand that? What's, A, what's driving it? B, what implications will it have? It's really interesting. It's probably convenience more than anything is what's driving it. People don't want to spend hours lining up on their Saturday if they can just pop to a polling booth. And we love this kind of thing. We can't at all understand that. And you don't spend hours. That's the thing. I mean, the queues are very rarely, even 30 minutes, really. But it's this, yeah, it's this, why would I spend my Saturday voting in for someone who I don't particularly like when I can pop in the week before and do it on my way home from work? Do you think it's got anything to do with incivility? Do you think it's that, that people, you know, we saw the egging incident with the prime minister. You know, do you think it's about people's concern about incivility, having to sort of traverse the people handing out how to vote cards? I mean, you still get that. They're still, you still have to run that gauntlet even on pre-polling day. It's interesting the, in terms of incivility, in terms of a sort of a sense of civic duty to vote and that, you know, the voting day is a day where we come together as an Australian community and choose our government. Whether that is in decline and whether pre-polling undermines that sense of community, I think, is an interesting debate that has been going on. Whether it's, you know, you're gonna run that gauntlet no matter which day you go. So I don't know that. Do you think it's much more about convenience? What about the seats that it's occurring in? Does it, are they significant? I mean, I've seen some of the analysis of seats like Flinders, of other seats that, you know, where candidates, you know, people have been drawing conclusions about people rushing out to vote, having made up their mind. Well, I think the parties are concerned about it because I heard yesterday or read somewhere that the parties are starting to talk about the fact that maybe they should reduce the amount of pre-polling time because it affects the whole electoral campaign cycle. Absolutely. You know, when you actually get your messages out, when you actually start to, you know, people, you know, unless they've been really listening to and reading a lot, they won't know all the policies, presumably, when polling first opened. You know, so I don't know what that tells us about. I think people just want the pain over. And they think, well, I voted now, I can shoot out for the next couple of weeks. I don't have to listen to it anymore. You could well be right. But what I think is interesting is, and this has been a trend for the last few elections, and Labor has recalibrated its campaign to take into account, so it had the launch and earlier launch, it's got all its policies out. I think it's even putting its final costings out very soon. Yes, I think Shorten indicated Thursday. And normally it's like the Friday before the Saturday election, yeah. But again, the LNP have been a bit flat footed and I just assume both major parties would recalibrate. And I don't understand why they haven't. And the coalition launch, of course, is going to be on Sunday. Now, there's tactical reasons for doing that because it means you can use the advantages of incumbency until you actually have your campaign launched. But again, to go back to your lights on it kind of point, Mother's Day as the day for the launch. So in lots of ways, Jacob, the rhythms of the campaign as we go into the last week are going to be unconventional by what we're used to given this pre-polling trend. Yeah, yeah, it's tricky. And of course, we've had all the public holidays at the start of the election campaign as well that really threw a spanner in the works to campaigning. And that was a critical time given that pre-polling was about to open. And so, as Jenny said, Labor being so out there well in advance of the election even being called being clear about what its vision for Australia was has really helped them navigate that tricky campaign. And yet it's not showing up in the polls. No, I know, I know. And so do we, as we've done after every election, go, well, the polls don't tell us anything anymore because millennials don't have landlines. I guess we'll have to see. Next week on the show, we will be looking at the election grand final. We'll be coming into the last week of the campaign and approaching the decision time, I guess, for both parties. Thanks so much to all of the politics nerds that have tuned in today. We look forward to welcoming you next week to Below the Line.