 Welcome back. Now, experts are saying that the 18 month economic recovery period will be accompanied by a high interest rate regime to tame inflation and the continued scarcity of FX in the NFEM would sucker from the parallel market. Now, during this period, now, experts are saying that it is important to constantly hedge to preserve value by moving excess liquidity and profit into assets that retain value. Now, international finance and economic analyst, Muhtar Mohamed, joins me now as we continue projecting for this year's outlook. Thank you so much, Muhtar, for joining me on Business Insights. Thank you for having me, Justin. All right. Now, the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospect Report for this year indicates a slight increase in Nigeria's growth rate projected to rise from 2.9% from last year to 3.1% this year. What do you make of these figures? Well, I'm not surprised we've done some reforms, especially in the petroleum sector, and we hopefully will see some of these things coming when I bring growth into our economy, especially the local refining of our petroleum products, EMS and others. So, as expected, there might be later in the employment of those also that also increase growth. So, I'm not surprised about what they said. But again, from that point, you realize there's not a straight line route that we are going to begin to see immediately, just see the growth comes in. There's going to be a little bit of other issues that need to be addressed for we to see those groups. And also, those issues are not just, they're going to be very painful issues. We're talking about inflation, like an interest rate, effects of latitudes to be there for a while to begin to end those effects or begin to get a foreign direct investment of the film. So, what they said is fine. But again, like I said, it's still a long way to go. And the growth we are seeing is all as a result of productivity in the oil and gas sector. We need to see regrowth comes in. And when we talk about regrowth, we talk about data that will come from employment. We see more women employed, more businesses being open. But in the short term, we will not see that. But maybe in the long term, if the policies continue from government and government is able to innovate in some of this policy, we could see a snowball effect in every era of natural income. Okay. Rightly, I like you alluded to policy reforms enacted by the government in 2023, especially in the hydrocarbon sector. That's some oil and gas sector contributed to moderate improvement in the country's growth. And that is supposed to actually just show in 2024. But the question right now, which you also mentioned in passing, you're talking about real sector growth now. So what should we be doing concerning our manufacturing industry? Because we seem to be having so much hope right now in the oil and gas, with the dango tariff refinery and all of that. But what do we do about our manufacturing? Unfortunately, the government is doing what they think they could do. Unfortunately, there are a lot of challenges facing that sector infrastructure and we're talking about infrastructure in that sector. We're not just talking about the wood network. We're talking about, we're also talking about power and all that monetary policy issue, physical policy that don't happen in that sector also. So all these are contributing to a lot of factors that we are not seeing the regroup in this manufacturing sector. And what do we need to do to do that? We need to look at policy statements, especially in the monetary and the fiscal side. What are those policies or what are those monetary policy issues that have really affected the manufacturing sector? How can we manage it? How can we help that sector growth? High interest rate is not good for that sector. High exchange rate is not good for that sector. So how do you address it? How do you bring that high interest rate? Do you address it internally? Then how do you bring that effects rate that cannot be dealt internally, externally to attract more effects into your economy so that the manufacturers can be able to assess effects, even if not for local consumption, to bring in their material also into the country. Their machinery is to work on it. But these are not manufacturers that need effects to do that. How can you enact a slimless policy that will make manufacturing companies assess effects, slimlessly rather than going from M that has become a buckle net, then you have to wait for month and month and month. So there's a lot of things that the government need to look at. They need to look at chip funding for that sector. So it's very important that government begin to look at chip funding. Even if the CBL is going to intervene, they should intervene like what they did before. They should intervene through the banking space, the monetary policy banks and so that will also help with stability in that sector. So it's a sector that needs a lot of surgical operation, but then the government need to have the political way to do that. But again when you look at policy around that sector too, you are not too excited because you are thinking about taxes, you're thinking about high interest rates. Also you are not all also recently have seen that if you end up at $50,000, $10,000, that's not the short of the country. The most colleagues about them. Is it 50%, 50 Naira of that amount in episode? That also is having an impact on that sector. And that sector will need to turn the challenge back to the consumer. And so that's why you are seeing inflation will have to go up because of those which will have to go up. Okay, let's look at our debt profile, our debt burden. The debt burden right now is about $130 billion, United States dollars. And it's being serviced by 95% of government revenues. And debt servicing is now exceeding both recurrent and capital expenditure. But how sustainable is all of this, I mean our debt level? How do we survive this year? Just when you talk about debt and sometimes I keep saying people that are nothing but in debt. But it's just what kind of debt you have. Like you say, how sustainable do we have? You see that the government, if you look at your project this year, they have most concentrated more on internal borrowing and through major capital market activities, which is good. And that will create an inferiority in the in the fixed income sectors. And that also could attract foreign investors and then you were able to use those persons for investment to begin to offset their some of their debt. So I think that they have a strategy on how they want to deal with that or how walkable is that strategy is on nothing all together. But at least now, from what we see, from what we are seeing, from where I'm sitting now, they have a strategy and the minister said that our goal is not to borrow more, it will be catastrophic for the national team to borrow. So what they're trying to do is to maintain the status quo where they are now and then begin to see how they can borrow internally, which is easier for them to pay without having the effects of volatility coming into into play. So they have done that internally. The externally, they want to attract investors to space content. This is where the fixed income space for them to come in. So it's just a lot, a lot to be done. And they said the government said in the if they have to grow, they will mention improve or prove that could be viable to pay off those debt. And I think for me, that's the right approach to do to go. If the previous I'm sure I've gone to this approach, maybe we won't be where we are today. All right, Moqta, let's just leave the economic outlook for one minute and talk about some recent development that I'm just a code in the country. Right now, from what we hear the federal government is planning, let's talk about immigration and of course, home affairs and all of that. The federal government is planning to begin full contactless passport application, home delivery for much, you know, I'm thinking it is a good development because I've been thinking about how to go and renew my passport and the whole issue of who to, you know, set to the passport office is actually something that could be very cumbersome. But how do you see this new development and what impact would it really have on business activities, both locally and of course, internationally? I think locally, when you save time like you, you have to go to passport office, we have friends, we have to travel and sometimes out of Lagos, some go to Canals, some go to Elisha, some go to Kekuta, some go to Shagamu, just to capture. I think that all times will not be wasting time. I think it's a very innovative idea. I've always said that it's not rocket science for us to begin to have a passport in the comfort of our room because it's done in other countries of the world. I have my passport for people, I mean, American citizens that have to apply for their passport, the comfort of their room and that passport to live up to them are the comfort of their room. Even in Ghana, so I think it's a good thing that could do us to the minister. It shows that the minister is really working, I'm sure. He has already passed Presidentin-Uber-Lithuans test to be one of those ministers that will continue to be minister for interior, interior affairs, I think he has done very well. All right, are you still there? When you look at the foreign side of it also, it's a side that we also have to look at because that will begin to attract investors into our country. But I hope that the minister will be able to make it in such a way that you could apply for Nigerian passport and visa also at the comfort of your room so that you can have the Nigerian visa at the comfort of your room, feeling all the details because sometimes just in this world it's not only Nigeria. Even when you go to the passport office in Atlanta, it's the same thing. When you go to the passport office in New York, it's the same thing like what you experience in the Kui passport office. It's located in that place also. So the minister have said that the first one is to deal with that in Nigeria, which have started yesterday. The second one will be in the diaspora and the last one will be sometime in March that will make you fill up your data, your passport, right at the comfort of your room. I can't wait to see this policy comes to light. I can't wait. All right. Let's just keep our fingers crossed because March is just around the corner before you know we are in March. Let's talk about some political economics as it's where, you know, literally the past 24 hours a whole lot has been happening, lots of shake-up, you know, in MDAs and all of that. And just yesterday we heard that the head of the FCC, PC, that's the consumer protection and of course the Bureau of Public Enterprise were actually changed. You know, this is January and we are seeing lots of changes happening. You know, is it going to drive the change that we expect to see this year and then what impact all of this really, really have economically? Justin, I must say I'm surprised and very commendable. I mean, when I say I'm surprised, I'm surprised and it's a very commendable move from Mr. President. I've never seen Justin serve this fast in the history of Nigerian civilian regime, administration, not regime administration because it's the first time I am there to be corrected, that you have a minister accused and within 48 hours an action was taken. It must give it to Mr. President. Nothing was done. So we must give it to him. For the consumer protection, of course, we remember that just last week they came up with a circular that they were finding British America tobacco, about $120 million for infringement. I hope that's not the reason why they are sacking the Director General. Maybe he has gone above his point. But I think those two with Bureau of Public Enterprise remember that the government is planning to privatize a lot of his assets this time. They will need a very robust or diligent Director General I'm not saying the one that is there is not it's not it's not it's not a qualified but say maybe the President wants his own men and he knows how they know how he wants his things done. So I think those appointments are going to be very huge in the coming days because they are the Bureau of Public Enterprise that is going to drive the privatization drive of this government. Remember that the government is planning to bring companies like MTN, I mean NMPC Nigeria Limited to the capital market. So we'll see this Nigeria Bureau of the Bureau leading that drive and also must be forget that consumers have been complaining of poor services and no action seems to be taken. Hopefully bring somebody that will be there for the consumer, not the one that is there for the producers. All right that's a whole lot of change, a whole lot of expectations from Nigerians now. But I just want us to go back very quickly as we round off just in one minute going back to outlook for 2024. I'm certainly concerned about the the forex regime and all of that because from the report we heard sometime last year we're supposed to go, the Naira supposed to actually gain momentum to about 800 that they're about to the dollar that's what we were told in December but this is January they're still above a thousand Naira. Mukta what exactly do we need to do in the immediacy on our forex regime? In one minute Justin same thing we said last year same thing we said this year attract inflow of forex into economy as much as you can through every sector through policies to physical policy to monetary policies come together attract effect into your account but again you must be careful that you are not doing this and and and also this making foreign investors not to come into the market but I think what we need to do nice to end effects we don't have enough we cannot fight with the parallel market people because we don't have enough so they they even seem to have enough because they're able to meet large demand compared to our own government that we're CBN that we have to go to a lot of buckleness to have so if you tell me what's the merit what we need to do physical policy monetary policy come together common policy that will attract investment from diaspora those are the ones that bring effects into the country you have to look at full investors you have to also look at foreign direct investors you have to look at all these people and begin to ask what do they really need how can we attract them back in our country because we need that effects to stabilize our exchange rate thank you so much mukta thanks for your time thanks for all of the useful insight as always that you bring on the show mukta Muhammad is an international finance and economic analysis joins us almost all the time to look at these critical issues we do appreciate your time thank you Justin for always having me thank you it is our pleasure and that's the size of the show for this morning i am justin akal dunye see you again next time bye for now