 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network The Vegas Golden Knights now to a two-nothing lead in the Stanley Cup finals Which means our focus now shifts back to the NBA with game number three coming up on Wednesday Between the heat and the nuggets that series all tied up at one game apiece We're gonna break down that game with Brandon Gendula for today Then ask Brandon as well But the RBC Canadian Open on the PGA tour this is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network And number fire calm. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Brandon Gendula check him out of Twitter at Gendula 13 find his work over at number fire calm Brandon the heat made a nice little comeback and game number two that series now tied up We have not the best PGA tour field this week, but a kind of a ramp up before next week's major So kind of a still a fun time in the calendar. How you doing today? I'm good. Yeah, I love a good NBA finals that has Some back-and-forth We're gonna see what Miami has to offer at home, but yeah, I was kind of worried that that That series we get a little bit out of hand even though my numbers have liked the heat For a while, but I actually had one of those for I mean, I never watch any sports live like unless it's like a Let's like a Sunday round of a major. Yeah, so I'm out golfing late into the twilight basically playing into the dark on Sunday for during game two and yeah, you know like in TV and movies you get the Someone like turns on the radio and then it's just right then. There's the breaking news alert that kind of thing Yeah, I'm in the car like I don't listen to the radio, but it's set to the radio before My Bluetooth kicks on yeah Start the ignition to come home, and it's like oh Denver 66 Miami 64 I'm like at least it was a good point to get spoiled that you know Yeah, but like at least it was so I was like trying to look on the bright side It's like well at least I know it's gonna be a close game But you know Miami came out firing and then Denver came out and I was like I would have felt like those that game would have been a lot different had I not known that it eventually got Tied back up, but yeah, there were tweets that I saw during the game They were like they should end the series after three games because it's over and then Miami won That's yeah, that's pretty much Why I love social media because the reactions are yeah, usually logical and not reactionary But yeah, so the one time I had to like record something is if it's like an F1 race early in the morning I have some stuff going on that morning I will DVR it and if I do that I have to mute like I just pause all the apps of my phone Like individually so like I pause Twitter pause the SPN pause the athletic to make sure I get no notifications from those I like I think slack automatically. I don't check slack anyway, but like you know, I Have to go steps. I know that you don't check Twitter anyway, but like if I don't pause the app I will reflexively open it if I have a second of free time So I have to do that like me myself was spoiling myself. Yeah, that's that's probably a different issue Yeah, keep your phone down, but I mean, I know you're an Android what you like to talk about but yeah, if you're like a do not disturb function that you can just kind of wait Maybe then you have any notifications, but I don't know what I won't like like what if my wife sends me a funny tweet I want to see that. Well, I wouldn't get it because of Twitter. Oh dang it. I didn't think about Instagram She's gonna be a funny Instagram real. I want to see that, you know, I can't be cut off from everything This isn't like 1984. I love Wait the year of the book both. Well, at least the year In computer shifts and people's brains now I'm cool and coffee about it. So, you know, I will say the book Well, I'm here. Yeah. Yeah Hopefully they did. Did they I don't know whatever You know very sidetrack here. Anyway, we're gonna break down game three of the NBA finals with Brandon Then talk some golf after that. But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast bit of a unique schedule for this week because of all the All the all the NBA all the NHL stuff going on but also the Belmont stakes coming up So we're gonna have a double day on Friday We're gonna have two shows a Friday to account for all that because we just have too much stuff We want to discuss and not enough time to do it. So A lot of shows coming up here in your feed So in order to make sure you get those as they're posted Make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast to get notified as these go live and also check out the Fandall youtube page And subscribe there to get our notifications as they go live there as well If you like what you hear on youtube leave us a thumbs up or an apple podcast Leave us a five star rating as well It is almost time to crown a new NBA champion and Fandall wants you to be part of the excitement because right now New customers get a no sweat first bet up to two thousand five hundred dollars. That's two thousand five hundred dollars Back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the finals action than america's number one sports book Fandall Official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states First online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restricts is applied seafold terms at fandall.com slash sports book Fandall is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem call 1 a 100 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 800 9 with it in wyoming in kansas 1 805 2 2 4700 or in kansas ks gambling health dot com louisiana is 1877 770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in maryland md gambling health.org in new york 1 8 7 7 open wire text open y and in west virginia Go to 1 800 gambler dot net Let's kick things off here by talking about game number three brand in the nba finals That is in miami for the heat and the nuggets and as of right now at fandall sports book The nuggets are two and a half point favorites despite the fact this game is in miami total is two 14 and a half and The he had the big comeback winning game two and i want to talk to you about the first two games broadly Because we have not talked to you since the series began brandon anything takeaways from those first two games That all to the way you view this series as a whole Um, so yeah, I think it's uh, there's a chance that this things can be A bit closer uh again than than I thought now I come from this thing like My numbers whenever you look at their splits without tyler here on the court and it seems like tyler hero Not quite ready to return at least for game three still experiencing some soreness and They're not going to rush things. He's I think he said that he doesn't want to like Interrupt the flow anyway something like that. So um Which is you know good awareness Uh, because their numbers are actually a bit better when he's off the floor Um, which I'm sure he doesn't quite know but you know, it is what it is. Um, but yeah, I think that uh From the eye test standpoint, uh It's just one of those situations where we know miami is not a super deep team We know that they're overperforming and we know that denver has been a really good team for a couple years now When they're at full health, um, and they're and they're like you know on all cylinders right now, so The eye test, uh, just has me thinking you know entering this that the denver is going to run away with it and You know game one didn't do a whole lot to quell those concerns, but in game two You know, we saw some of the You know some of what makes playoff basketball to me I think my favorite uh of all the sporting events because it's about How teams evolve over a potential seven game series So we saw some of those coaching changes some of those lineup changes. Uh, kevin loves started game two played 22 minutes Um, hey, what high smith fell out of the rotation Michael porter jr. As well as minutes were down, which is just interesting. We saw more bruce brown and uh christian brown Which I know You know everyone loves christian brown, which is uh, just fun to see someone like that step up and make some plays some hustle plays and You know, it's it kind of is really interesting for for people like that who can you know Maybe change that the course of the nba finals with like one or two plays which is always um To me a really interesting note, but you know overall i wait The the the true difference makers in it's not like i'm completely revamping the way that i'm looking at this series Based on you know, I will factor in kevin love more. Um, but you know The the bruce brown situation not necessarily moving the needle a ton um In my perspective, so You know in terms of the what we've seen so far Uh the problem for me with with like playoff basketball is we don't know who exactly is going to get heavy minutes in game three We might think we can estimate But there's going to be some changes. There's going to be some some some tweaks here Especially if we had tiger hero coming back, but it doesn't sound like we're going to Um of note given sort of the it was a pretty even gaming game too based on the the four factors, but The rebounding battle, uh again favored Denver so I actually had them expected to win that game based on just if you strip away the actual score Look at the underlying data. Um around 60 of the time. So this could be a two-oh series. Um That being said Uh, they did not win and that is basically What matters and now we have an even series going back to miami In even series heading back to miami where the heat are actually underdogs to an outpoint dogs here on the At home in game number three. So let's talk about game three specifically brandon When you look at that spread look at that total Can the heat get a win here or to the nuggets rebound in game number three So one thing to note here, uh for people who like the the totals miami plays slower at home than any team in the league Uh, I just kind of wanted to throw that out there. Um, but when I use the samples with key players active The nuggets have a net rating removing garbage time possessions of a plus 7.1 For the heat it's a 2.1 Which is a pretty big gap But of course you have to make some adjustments for the context of this game home court Rest playoff specific adjustments where things Um, you know efficiency tends to be down about three about three points off of offensive rating So my model thinks that the spread should be Half a point in miami's favor, which means that both the spread and money line are in play Again going back to like the eye test. I think denver is a much better team But the thing that's really impressed me is bam adabio I kind of thought that he would be one of the true keys to this series. He's playing he's playing really well Um, you know, sometimes when I look at him, uh playing he seems a little bit more passive but he seems to be More aggressive and taking advantage of the fact that uh, nicole oakage is definitely not interested in getting into foul trouble um So bam playing well is very interesting here and again The heat have a 1 1 series in their midst with jimmy butler averaging 17 points per game. He's been Not looking like jimmy. I mean he's still contributing in other ways, but If we get like a 35 point game from jimmy butler Uh, and everyone else plays, you know somewhat close to their their potential Um, I think that miami has a lot of there's a lot of there's enough reason to think that the data Is correct in this sense because jimmy is not necessarily standing out And they barely eeked by to win Game two, you know, just to say someone is a do is problematic, but we know jimmy butler's a lot better um Then than what we've seen through two games and with his own with my with miami basically Forcing nicole oakage to score um That it sort of took denver out of what they do best So I think there's enough reasons whether it's slowing the game down Causing that higher variance with fewer possessions um in the zone Different rotation tweaks role players tending to play better at home In the playoffs, um, I will take the two and a half points, but as As a nod to you jim I will uh bet the money line as well Okay, I was gonna ask which you'd be willing to do It sounds like you prefer the spread because the plus two and a half is minus 112 right now The money line for the heat is plus 120. It sounds like based on You what you're seeing if you were to bet one of those you would lean towards the spread. Is that correct? Yeah, if I had to bet one if like if I was telling someone to bet one I would take the points. I think it's the smarter play But in solidarity with you and again because my model does have miami as the favorite I personally will go the money line. So take that for how you will with how you jot things down But I think both are both are good plays for anyone listening. I mean, I do keep track of what we say on the show Uh, but before you finished talking I'd already bet the money line. So I didn't wait in that regard You gave me the green light basically by saying they were favored By a half point. So I didn't wait in that regard and did take the heat money line. So yeah, it's I feel like Yeah, it's an interesting one if you just check different models. Um, I know espn's model Um Is low on the heat not to like that's not a I wasn't like referencing the the meme But yeah, I think it's just due to their long-term offense not being great Uh, I think that's what really has things bogged down But if you look at some other models, uh, they pretty much say what mine does too. Um, so that's always reassuring But yeah, I think that it's not it's not outrageous and the fact that the spread is is still relatively tight Yeah, um Kind of does mean this is anyone's game. So I don't think we're overreacting to a game to win By by leaning to the heat and I do I would say the two and a half is significant in terms of the spread So if you want to go spread over money line, I get it just my personal preference is to go Money line there. Okay, we know we know from from talking about this. We know Brandon does like the money line at plus 120 or the spread of plus two and a half at minus 112 We'll see how things play out in game number three And of course we'll talk more some more mba later on this week here on the show as well But for now, let's shift focus and talk about some pga It's not again the best event for this week the rbc canadian open and I'm sure to your delight Brandon It is also the first time they played this course It is at oak hill gulf and country or oak dale gulf and country club never hosted a pga tour event So give me your best guesswork based on what you've read. What key characteristics should we know about this course? um Sorry, whenever whenever you do like the inch and feet notation the single apostrophe is for feet And then the doubles for inches correct. Yes for anyone who doesn't know the the gcsa is a great resource for figuring out like Just core stats But there's not a whole lot on This particular course, but I think an update from when I had it initially because I just refreshed this it says rough bluegrass for with a single apostrophe so I don't think they mean rough, but um if they're playing a four foot rough i'm concerned yeah, um so we're looking at uh You know average greens, which is I think updated from what I saw too. It's 6000 square feet um par 72 over 7200 yards so um bit short for a par 72 and again no past course data to look at but if you look at like the course flyover It I think we can learn a little bit um You know and and like looking at the scorecard too. We've got some we've got a lot of short par fours Five really short really short par fours Three long par fours and then all of the par fives are short to average So I think we can find some shorter hitters toward the top of the leaderboard for this week I think there's going to be multiple forced layups Which is kind of key as well So ultimately the thing that i'm i'm sticking to and I think makes sense is not Overweighting driving distance. I don't think driving distance is going to be enough to fly some of these forced like layups um Therefore it's going to put a lot of golfers in play and we know that we have One single favorite uh for this week. He's a big hitter roey mackerel I think his advantage on the field is going to be a bit lessened So I think he's fascinating but again overall I think that this course will play It should play fairly easily Based on what I'm seeing Again, this is a lot of looking at the course looking at whatever notes I can find in making assumptions Um, but yeah, I think that some of the shorter hitters will be viable this week What that always does is puts more people in in potential To contend so uh, it's one of those weeks and again, it's not a great field. So we have You know, I think fando actually has a it's like a big guns versus the field market, which is pretty telling Uh that you can narrow this one down to like I think it's like four big names in the field I'm gonna say is it just roey versus the field? I think it's It was like of course now I can't find it because i'm talking about it, but um You know, maybe maybe we'll come across it here. Yeah as we explore Oh, here here it is. Uh roey teal hatton Matt Fitzpatrick and sam burns. Okay What's the field versus them Field is minus 235 big guns plus 180 So you've probably kind of answered this already, but let's talk about roey macaroy He is the favorite here at fando sports book. He's five to one as you mentioned Could flatten things out with the forest labs and stuff like that But roey has kind of surged back to life the past couple of events He's five to one uh teal hatton second shortest at 11 to one Have you seen enough from roey the past couple of events to view him as a value at that number or Does the way the course is laid out prevents him from quite getting there? Yeah, so to clarify Um what you're talking about with like the recent events where he's been t7 at the pga championship Uh was t7 at memorial as well um Two two designated events good fields obviously one of those being a major and he's also Back-to-back canadian open champion. Yeah, he's he has no one has won the canadian open since 2018 other than roey macaroy Let's raise it that way instead sounds better. It does sound a lot better, but uh Two for two years due to covet There was No event, but yeah roey looking to go I mean it this would still be back-to-back Uh, technically so that'd be the full of manskey Three three courses too, right? Yeah, so that's the one that's the thing is like just because roey's won here I mean you can make big case for like canadian courses. He gets bumped up, but um technically going for the the you know the back-to-back to back opportunity Um, but yeah, those those t7s are off the heels of the miscut at the masters and a t47 at the well's fargo with bad irons um You know just kind of a teachable moment here um shout-out chase you but uh Just because roey macaroy has too bad events with iron play does not mean that he's gonna trend that way If anything it probably means that he's going to Return to long-term form uh for roey and speaking of that long term He's the best golfer in the field. Of course that shouldn't surprise anyone I have his his uh win odds at about 15 percent Which is not enough at five to one where you need him around like 16.7 percent Um, so I can't get to rory. I can't recommend him sometimes like it's close enough for I said, I'm not gonna get there, but I think other people could just based on that number alone I don't really see the value. Um On rory for the week. Unfortunately, that's kind of The overarching theme for outrides For the week Yeah, I think that with his win odds being 15 percent though. It's close enough where it says to me He's not being undervalued in your model because if he's undervalued in your model It's going to allocate too much win equity to other guys and I'd be concerned about showing value elsewhere But it sounds like because he's gobbling up win equity. It means nobody is a value based on your model, correct? yeah, so uh Whenever someone is 15 likely and is not like an egregious betting value Then you're typically on the right path And so but that leaves 85 percent of the potential wins Spread throughout everyone else. So you're gonna have to kind of get um a good number Uh here and there on guys to to really want to dive in that being said I have and you know, this is this is not necessarily a Small difference. Um, I have Tiro Hatton at 12 to 1 He's 11 to 1 and due to the fact that I love You know, I'm gonna stick with my my course fit Uh, just assumptions here. Yeah, where it's not going to be about driving distance And it's going to be more of an approach Around the green and putting kind of weak Um, that's close enough for me So I want to go with Tiro Hatton because I'm not going to be chasing a whole lot of other stuff For the week. He's just a dominant golfer the weakness for him generally distance. Um But he's accurate and again one of the best, uh Like fairway through green players that we have on tour So I think it's the right setup for hatton And I'm in on hatton and then the other name well There's one name in in particular that I'm also going to get some exposure to but for the most part There's a lot of golfers in like the 30 to 65 range who I think are About two percentage points away or sorry point two percentage points away. Yeah So like it's just constant Not something that I want to get uh exposure to but uh sahith the gala is 30 to 1 on fandal sports book I have them at What's the equivalent of like 31 to 32 to 1? So once I get to that point that's that that percentage point gap is a bit different but Consistently hits the irons well putts well Um, not necessarily a great driver, but again, I don't think that's going to be the most key stat At least not from a distance standpoint. So I think that could work out for him and he's really fascinating for me because People like him So he's been popular And he's been overvalued. He's been one of the more overvalued golfers in my model For a long time and I think that luster is wearing off And so then he's back to like where he probably should have been all along And that ultimately is why I like the model because it just shows me Based on long term with more recent weighting on Uh recent events or sorry like heavier weighting on more recent events. Um Adjustments for field strength. Here's where guys probably should be Yeah And then I can go from there So that that's why I'm in on hatton and and I will uh also bet sahith fagala For this week the numbers on those two guys hatton 11 to 1 sahith fagala 30 to 1 and as brandon mentioned Not quite values by his model but close enough where if you want some action in the outright markets You can turn there their values in my heart this week. That's right. That's the true model Yeah, the will to win. Uh, what about non-outrights? Anything sending out to you there? It's also kind of kind of tough. Um, at least in my The way that I'm viewing things in the way that my model is looking at stuff But it's two top 20s that I like alex smally um I didn't drop down his number here. I think I overwrote it Uh, top top 15 and iron play. There we go. Uh, he is plus 250. Yeah, that sounds right. Um Top 15 iron player in the field over the past 50 rounds according to data golf 12th overall in stroking teeter green Missed the cut last week with a really bad short game But t 40 at the trial Schwab in spite of bad putting And then if you go back to like when he had positive putting but Like barely positive putting T 23 at the pga championship Which is probably equivalent to like a T7 in in this field and a t18 at the wells fargo championship So I like smally based on the the fit And so then sort of the inverse ben griffin top 20. I have 290 here a plus 290. So Um wrote that one down. So welcome jim Uh, not a great ball striker like smally is a great ball striker with iffy short game Griffin's basically the the opposite 82nd and overall ball striking over the past 50 rounds eighth and short game not super accurate off the tee but you know the the the form overall is there for griffin and If I were to like bet a long shot, I would consider griffin. So if anyone wants to like put down just a partial unit there I don't mind that but for me i'm i'm focusing more on the top 20 market for him Again, that was ben griffin plus 290. He was right beneath smally. So I actually didn't have to scroll at all So that actually made it a lot easier smally plus 250 for the top 20 over at vandal sports Anything else you like for this week or uh pretty thin based on what we're seeing here Pretty thin we got nba finals. Um, we got stuff we can entertain ourselves with w nba as well. So Got anything for tonight? I haven't run a yet or nothing yet, and I would not uh rude. Yeah Hey, we can talk. Believe it or not. Yeah, jim asked me to have nba finals prep for a day in advance and then still wants w nba in addition Okay, well DM me Maybe we'll get uh, that's fine. We'll get some w nba uh discussion on the show here eventually. Maybe uh can connie into that I don't know. Well, we'll see it's uh, I'm using all of my My process from nba to transfer to w nba, but I don't know if I'll become as well versed I got a scratch man. So just saying no uh, no branded ticks for nba. It might be a little a little dry So just saying uh work on it and we're gonna I'll work on you to try to get you talking some w nba here on the show as well But that is all that we have here for today on a covering this spread as mentioned Please make sure you are subscribed because it is a weird week potentially six shows undecided as of now Who can say we'll talk some ucl finals coming up We'll talk some more Stanley kelp more nba all right here and some belmont steaks pitching ninja back this week too So a lot of good stuff right here on covering the spread to get all of it as it is posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast brandon Thank you for swinging by for today. Enjoy game three. Hopefully no spoilers for you. We'll talk to you again soon Thank you jim. I might watch this one live tonight. Wow. It's not tonight Or yeah, that's what I meant. That's what I meant You can watch the live tonight if you want it's not going to be there though. You enjoy. Yeah Check out brandon twitter I could do a 13 check out his work at number fire I am on twitter at jim saunas. We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network