 Very good morning to everyone Thursday 16th of January. I hope you're doing well in terms of what I'm going to talk about is a little bit on updates regards to the Signing of the phase one of the US China trade deal. Where do we go from here? A few thoughts on that and then I look at the calendar But that's pretty much it from me because it's pretty quiet from a news headline point of view Not a great deal of things going on now that that major macro event has kind of passed but Definitely Sam's got something he wants to get off his chest Walked in this morning. It's just getting his coffee started brandishing some pretty bullish noises about US equities and I don't want to stitch him up too much, but I Definitely Don't disagree with his view and so he's going to come on spend perhaps a little bit more time on the mic to give his Two pence or two cents depending on where you are But in terms of the charts this morning Reaction to the trade deal signing was pretty much as anticipated Most people have already really factored this in the details had already come out prior to then the actual symbolic conclusion of that part of the event and so limited real reaction if anything US equities again just Just about touching fresh all-time highs so kind of a perfect storm for Donald Trump in terms of The way of which he can express the success of that deal Next part now, of course is about what happens with with phase two It's been a little bit mixed between the two sides about exactly when that's going to begin Following on from yesterday's phase one signing which the US President Trump said work on phase two is to begin as soon as phase one begins VP might pence remark that phase two work has already begun But the Chinese have said this morning that it's unwise to rush into phase two Negotiations stating Beijing has little interest in immediately doing so adding we may get nothing if we rush Part two before completing part one. So as we were kind of suggesting yesterday, I don't think that's Any of those comments particularly that's shocking I don't really think phase two is really going to get underway personally my view for another several months because Everyone's going to want to see The legitimacy of really can China remain compliant to their commitment to buy what 200 billion dollars worth of variety of different Imports from the America over the next two years, which we'll look at so overall in the market sentiment is Really classified as positive. We're kind of in a bit of a neutral gear at the moment We're kind of lacking a little bit emphasis on on the fundamental side. So with that being said then Markets do need something to take their cue from and and typically then this is where people might put greater emphasis on the technical setups of the various different assets that are trading with the kind of distinct lack of fundamentals Corporate earnings season. I don't think it's going to provide that trigger point There's no one really that Substantial significant or is there that much of a volume of corporate earnings hidden the market at the moment Earning season doesn't really start to ramp up until next week and the week beyond that It's just kind of the the banks at the moment and we already really know Generally what the situation is there having had already quite a few of the the main Wall Street names report So yeah, I definitely would be looking at this trade story as as you know, I wouldn't have it as a Real directional driver for saying want to be long short different assets at this point it's kind of more Just looking at a key technical levels, I guess is what I'm saying from a Trade deal point of view. I did just briefly mention it, but I did want to show it on a graphic Just make it one notch smaller so you can see it. Just give me one second. I scroll to it This was the detail behind Beijing's 200 billion dollar buying spree kind of promise in order to get this deal done I know over the line with US President Donald Trump and you can see here The two colors denote the breaking of year one and year two of the kind of phased-in element of the buying of four different Areas of of imports from America agricultural energy Manufactured goods and services Manufactured goods being the most but it's just quite phenomenal really just of just a size of this and certainly From an American point of view Not only have you got a fairly accommodative Monetary policy where they're kind of in a holding pattern at the moment and on the balance of things You would say if anything they're more like it's a cup than than hike in combination then with The likelihood probably of quite aggressive fiscal pledges as Trump goes into trying to Cajal sentiment into the second term and now with the underlying commitment of China buying Copious amounts of goods from America and in fear of reprisal if they do not now that they've signed this agreement It is it is all looking a little bit gravy over the medium term for America and Donald Trump this of course Coming amid the house still looking to persevere with their impeachment of the president But again as we've said over the over the last couple of weeks I don't really see that there's just political noise on Capitol Hill rather than anything influential for prices day to day With that being said there was something from the Chinese side that I did see Just giving you the highlights here This was coming from an official overnight who said that the people's bank at China the Chinese central bank will keep liquidity at reasonable Ample levels by flex flexible or flexibly losing monetary policy tools like the reserve requirement ratio the medium The lending facility that they have open market operations and basically just Continuing to do what's necessary To avoid any kind of disruption in their local economy, but a lot of this stuff particularly Liquidity injections at this time of year seasonally do coincide with the build-up to the Domestic mainland shutdown that you get over the the new year period and Chinese New Year kicks off in about nine days now So another this is too surprising, but you know, this is another thing about that overall General outlook still remaining relative positive Not just because of all the reasons just discussed there with America and Trump But from a Chinese point of view the deal also Does then put a bit of an end at least in the short term to some of the negativity Which obviously was a real risk factor To one, you know, the largest emerging market in the world Last year which was the significant economic pressure that they were experiencing through the escalation of tariffs And now this is kind of on hold for the time being there's kind of a mutual agreement here The lack of escalation with the additional Stepping up of the PBOC and the natural fiscal forces in China Yeah, it's hard it's hard not to To be fairly Now upbeat about the the future despite some of the obvious risks that are out there That's it really for me Nothing really too much obviously the conversation is all quite high level top view macro rather than anything so much specific intraday Definitely would be more interested to hear what what sam's looking at as key levels to watch across the different asset classes From an actual calendar point of view This morning not really too much of interest. You do have the ECB minutes coming out at 12 30 london time, but ECB minutes By default are are dated I don't think they're going to be in particular relevance or have much in the way of market moving potential later on today then in the u.s Regular weekly jobless claims at 130 alongside import export prices. You've also got fully fed and u.s retail sales so Perhaps then a u.s Focus session in regards to potential catalysts that could dictate some of the sentiment when the when the americans come in and the general volume overall starts to pick up Speaker wise feds bowman voter neutral stance speaking specifically more on the housing market That's going to be at 3 p.m. Then ECB's christine lagarde is also speaking at 6 p.m Obviously the ECB president always worth monitoring Bank of england's howl dane is also speaking 6 p.m. An event in london and from an earnings perspective as I said, there's not really too substantial At least from an index trading point of view from a single stock perspective We do have bank of new york melano reporting ahead of the opening bell today All right, that is it from me. Let me hand you over to sam any questions though feel free to leave a comment On the video on youtube and if you're watching this and you're not subscribed to the channel make sure that you do subscribe Uh, we'll have these daily updates, of course, but we'll also have live events of which We'll also be covering the fed on the 29th of january live via the youtube channel So hopefully I'll see you then if not before and have a good day ahead. Thanks very much guys Yeah, hi guys. I hope everyone is doing well. I feel like I've got the the big build up here So hopefully I'll give you something Something useful. We'll start off with with stocks as that's what I was talking about when I was coming in this morning about Well, let me just bring this into picture and obviously you can see just as a couple of moments ago I made the new all-time high in the s&p Can anything stop this market this year? Well If we have a look on the longer time frame you can see last year you had In may where the phase one trade deal was looking less likely We came down for a couple weeks went higher Then in august we had the devaluation of the reninbi above seven And that led to a week or so of downward move But I think it was a another decent push higher if you look from that low from the 26th of december 2018 It's incredible move. Um, and if we think about this year They may well not start phase two for now, but they're going to and there's going to be bumps in the way, but They're going to get a deal done So it begs the question is every dip here now just an opportunity to buy you got trump Who is the favorite to win the election? So unless the polls indicate otherwise Then you know, this market is going to remain elevated and he's going to do Everything he can to to get this done. You've seen his tweets before where he says, you know this You know if the feds were this if the trade deal was done It's going to put x amount of thousand points on the dow Jones and you know, he's not lying He will do what he takes to get this market higher and higher Uh, global slowdown doesn't doesn't slow this market down Significantly and there's again another opportunity to get long I was just saying if you were paying someone to invest for you and they weren't in us equities You'd be what what why on earth not? Um, I'm not saying right from this moment. It's going to go We're above 30 300 on the s&p. We're above 29,000 on the dow Jones. It didn't take long from 27 to 28 can there we get the 30,000 can I bring my 30,000? Dow Jones hacked into the office. It seems a bit of a formality for now If we want to start to the year We've had if you think of the Iran situation and we're on the all-time high right now So my my opinion and bias for this year is To get long at the best opportunities, which are going to be any potential dips And that's what happened at the back end of last year Of course, you know when this market does properly come down There's a long way for it to go But this year you're going to have phase two deal going to start yes with the bumps But they're buying opportunities Trump most likely to win the election the fed very very rarely make a policy change during an election year So that is you know going to be on the pause and they're definitely and trump is definitely not Going to be happy if they were to raise rates. So if there was a change it's going to be to To put to a cut or any decisions would be made, you know next year. So yeah, I favor that this market Is going to drift till november For that election on the third having to look more intraday Opportunity wise I think you know now we are just pushing higher Certainly looking for areas of support To to get in yesterday and the previous days have been quite choppy But just identifying 32 95 as an area. We had some good support in that asian session That would be a point of interest the the lows from Yesterday, I'm just going to bring in a bit of a trend line here. You can see What's a trend channel, but I've held it up quite nicely So again, if we were to get to that that kind of point I'd be interested. I'd Ideally wait to see how price reacts around there, but if it was to come in An hour or two time you're looking 32 87 88 For an opportunity to get long and same sort of patterns in the dow and the nasdaq All-time highs can we buy a lower down? Not much is going to change The overall picture and if it does what an opportunity to get long A cheaper point having to look at currencies euro yesterday pushed higher Last few days it has been Those lows Sorry of Most recent days just getting pushed upwards the highs as well It's not a great trend channel But like the one with oil to the downside probably worth having something similar on and In just looking when if we were to be more comfortable with price coming lower Or these lows and this trend trend line has to go as well line in the sand today yesterday's double top From the overnight on Tuesday and then wednesday morning keep a watch on that one 1178 on the futures below there i'm a seller Towards the s1 and yesterday's low if we have a look more closely at the highs And it's getting this trend line on from that top you can see we're just now Closing or about to close above this one two three now the fourth test through that So euro balls may be slightly more happy. Can we get a push towards the high? It's not a big move five ticks or so five full ticks anyway But that's how i'll be looking at the euro. So some key levels in and around where we're trading Much like with the pound we've got to keep a watch no matter what happens On that daily trend line, which is offered such a good level support It'd be interesting to see what happens here In a month's time and we're looking at this level. Was it a 120? What an opportunity to buy and suddenly we're now trading back at 133 And beyond or has it been the right thing to do to be patient wait for that break lower to target 128 But held superbly to keep a watch on that to get the pivots on this a little more intraday You can see similar to the euro when we are just drifting higher a bit of dollar weakness has been In present so keep a watch on that trend channel. We have this morning Or almost this morning on the futures filled that gap, which is usually obviously the case So 130 77 keep a watch on that As another point of resistance. Where would you be happy to get short? Well, I'd say personally you want to wait for this trend line here the pivots key 130 46 But below there then you can start maybe looking to target that overall big trend line And of course the bigger move to the downside would happen there other strong resistance points 131 handle 130 108 on the futures you got the lows there from the 8th you got the highest from the 10th you got the top of this trend channel you got r2 Could be a decent point And level to to have marked up there as well also in the mix around there You're going to have that the overnight high on the 31st You're going to have the the seventh pie and potentially the third test of that there Is well have a quick look over at golden oil to wrap it you can see likewise with those currency pairs Where we've had a bit of dollar weakness gold is following that that trend higher grinding higher Whether that low has saved us. I've said this before 1537 1534 35 is a key zone That's where I'd still be happy to to hold long as long as this area holds To the upside, you know, I think you'd be pretty comfortable and it's again, it's a zone Of targeting those highs if we were to get above between 1563 and 68 Give or take we're just sort of in this range here Is that opportunity to sell around 1563? You know if expertise keep pushing higher then maybe That's a great level to then target back down towards there. I have a way a wait and see I feel for now Yes, there will be a couple of intraday opportunities. Perhaps, you know looking at those lows from yesterday's and highs From today, which you can see we're not far away from just testing that now So obviously the opportunity here could be on a break of that trend But the overall bigger picture top end of that range and bottom end of that range I keep an eye on this this gold as well along with those Previous lows above 1555 you feel confident there could be a bit of a push DOE's yesterday decent move to the downside and then a full reversal you think it was a central bank meeting That in this trend channel still keep a watch on that I would say for This market we tested the top end of that this morning and it held quite nicely And the bottom up to got this more of a trend line, but you can see We're in there and the opportunity for me is above or it is below. What one do I prefer? I don't really have a bias for now. I'd rather let the market tell me what's going on and Well, we'll have to wait and see for that one there pivot looks relatively key Some interesting support around 57 75 as well the high the top end of that trend Channel is also yes those high as well. So it could be a bit of relief if all of that goes as well as usual any questions, please do let us know and also In the in the chat below on YouTube, let me know reasons why In November, you don't think equities are going to be on their high It's always interesting to hear the other side It's just my opinion that Trump's going to win A trade deal is going to get done whether it has any bumps or not and they're not going to raise rates As well, but yeah, any questions, please do let us know And I'll be on see on the chat throughout the day So I hope you will have a good trading session and catch you all later on