 Good afternoon everybody. My name is Barry Colfer and I'm the director of research here at the IIA in Dublin Just allowing a few moments for people to find their seats as the zoom room populates I'm delighted to welcome you to this event a keynote address from Professor Alberto Alberto Alamano Alberto is one of the most exciting thinkers of his generation across the breadth of public policy taking in law Health society and very much in between and it's a real honor to host you Alberto here. I'll be it virtually in Dublin before hearing from the professor, it's my pleasure to Hand over to Catherine Menon. Catherine Menon is a consultant at EU affairs And an active member of the IIA community Including but not limited to chair of our own Germany German affairs group Catherine thanks for being available to moderate and I hand you the floor No, thanks Barry No, good afternoon to everybody and thank you for coming for joining us I must say we're delighted that Alberto could be with us this afternoon We're really looking forward to hearing from him. He is as Barry says really original and exciting thinker Just on the details. He will speak to us for about 20 minutes and then he we will go to Q&A with the audience So One of the better aspects of doing it all online is that you're responsible for your own fire exits But I would ask you to use the Q&A function On Zoom, which I think everybody's fairly used to now So please send in your questions as you think of them as it goes along With your name and affiliation if appropriate and we come to them once Professor Alamano has finished his presentation The presentation and the Q&A are on the record You can also join the discussion annex using the handle at IIA and please tag us in any posts So Alberto Alamano is the German a professor of European law and policy at HEC Paris His research has been centered on how the law may be used to improve people's lives Through the adoption of power-shifting reforms countering social health economic and political disparities of Access within society. He's the author of more than 60 scientific articles and a dozen books He's permanent visiting professor at the University of Tokyo School of Public Policy The College of Europe in Bruges and a scholar at the O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law And he's a fellow at the Rutgers Institute for Corporate Social Innovation at Rutgers University He's the founder of the non-profit or organization and movement The Good Lobby Committed to equalize access to power So we look for with a with a CV like that We look forward with great interest to what you have to say to us Alberto, please so the floor is yours Thank you so much Catering for giving me the floor to Barry and to the IA for the kind of invitation for the opportunity to share a few thoughts I had of the European elections We start gearing up there start capturing the imagination of the media in Luckily enough also of European citizens and and voters and that's a reason why the title of my presentation today is the road To the European Parliament 2024 But is it just the casuals bellies and entries and excuse to share a few words about the state of play of European democracy and what we can reasonably expect From happening the road to the European elections has been Incredibly punctuated by electoral moments this year You are really witness an unprecedented electoral reason electoral season We've we've we've elections in in a record high number of European countries That even the risk of having a rerun Portugal is gonna be having elections in a couple of weeks from now There might be a rerun of those elections in the same way as the Spain as Spain also risk having a rerun in December we had the Dutch elections that we then didn't lead to a government formation yet We had elections in Poland that completely changed the political landscape by creating yet another challenge how you re-democratize a country when it basically eroded On on the rule of law. So is a terror incognita is definitely an unprecedented season That is preceding the electoral competition leading to the June Elections in Europe. So it's no exaggeration that for the first time these European elections really matter for us because we might be witnessing some Structural transformation in which the political conversation are happening in Europe So a few remarks on what to expect before during and after elections by asking a question I've been posing to different groups and communities across Europe of the past few years and the question I have for you Which sounds a bit of a quiz is what Europeans never do together and when I I ask these questions I always hear that, you know, there are things we don't do because you know There's not really something that you can do at the education level. So our schools curricula look different the taxation level I don't have to say this in Ireland are different. But in reality, the EU is also going there What do Europeans never do together for real is politics. So if you stop and ponder about it What is going to happen on? June in June in 2024 will be having around 400 million Citizens across Europe being called to cast a ballot and they're going to do this on on different dates They're going to be doing this For national parties. So in Ireland, you will be voting national parties Whereas in France are going to be voting their own French in the polls will do the same We're going to be voting for national programs Basically ideas that have been concocted at the national level and we're going to be asked to cast their ballot for Candidates who shared the very same nationality and citizenship they do have so as you can see this is so much for European politics There's very little European everything is extremely domestic European elections are nothing else But the sum of 27 parallel national competitions whose outcome has to be aggregated artificially ex post facto after the elections and this explains why so difficult To have a clear cut ideas on what it might happen in terms of new parliamentary majority in Europe And that's why there's so much speculation happening today After 70 years of socioeconomic integration the EU still has no European party system The European political parties are lose federation of parties that have very little in common One to another and which are not visible to the average European citizens. That means that a National party today in Ireland or in any other country can still run for the European Parliament without telling their electorate Which is the European political group in European political family? It belongs to and I can give you plenty of example one Which is very salient in the south of Europe is the five-star movement a party that has been around for 15 years They never picked their European political family. So they are independent some of them join some groups But there's very little Ideological consistency in the way in which they both and where they come from When you vote for the European election most of the national parties don't indicate their political party affiliation So there's no link being made by the act of casting your ballot vote and the political color of the European Commission That might be emerging as a result of that vote here. There are some examples coming for instance from the Netherlands I think is an interesting one where the outgoing Mark Rutte Prime Minister leader of the VVD the liberal family previous government actually Fell as a result of another liberal party member of the Alde the liberal party because they disagree at the national level So the party fell the government fell at the national level But nothing has changed at the European level D66 and VVD they belong to the very same European political party And then I can ask how many people are fully aware than when we're voting for For Angela Merkel and for CDU and today they're working there were voting they would be working for they would be voting for EPP They would also be voting for somebody like, you know, Victor Orban Fidesz when he was still part of the party So this limited intelligibility of the system prevents us from really understanding what is happening out But there is another side of the coin is not only the absence of a pan-European electoral competition Is also the absence of a European public sphere meaning that what happens in Brussels is narrated in 27 different ways depending of the country in which you are in so if we have a major speech by Ursula von der Leyen Well, that speech will be narrated from the national angle the national interest perspective of every single country That means that Europe does not necessarily suffers from a democratic deficit as many scholars have been trying to demonstrate over the years I'm not one of them But he rather suffer from an intelligibility deficit at the end of the day who is in Brussels represent us directly or indirectly has been democratically Legitimate it right through governments through parliamentary process through elections through appointment processes Which are pretty democratic in nature, but the system is not readable and that's what probably is holding us back today How can we tackle pan-European challenges if those pan-European challenges? Ranging from how to tackle migration all the way to how to address climate transformations are discussed According to the peculiarities and the political debates happening in a more parochial way at the national level This is something we might call as democracy without politics in a way Europe has been depoliticizing itself through its technocratic Policy process and politics struggle to comes in even though a greater Politicization is part of what we witness today, but not yet a Europeanization as I've been trying to explain to you The major consequence deriving from this lack of intelligibility is a lack of accountability Who is responsible for climate inaction who is responsible for the pushback against the climate Package that we witnessed over the past few months climate was the new raison d'etre was the real mission Foundational mission of the union under fundamental line, but over the past few months We have been seeing a reversal of that very same policy several parties not only the EPP Which was the first to be brave enough to say we no longer buying for this But also the liberals also some of the socialists also other political families are actually Taking or turning their back to the very same policy they subscribe to in 2019. Who is accountable for that? Well difficult right now to make sure that we're going to be able to identify the culprit and whether this culprit will be Sanction at the ballot box because of the lack of intelligibility who is responsible for not ensuring the respect of the rule of law and Heading a commission which could have been much braver in bringing more action Against the Hungary and in the past Poland in order to make them a bite But the very same rules of the game they subscribe to when they join the European Union but in the meantime and this is a very important point I think to be made today ahead of the European election if politics Doesn't really exist at the transnational level because it remain a domestic national affair The Europeanization of society of the economy has been going very fast So if I ask you how many European citizens do leave in a different country than the country in which they were born Well, that figure is 3.6% so approximately 15 16 million citizens that might some of you might say well It's little right in the US the interstate mobility is closer to 30% so significantly higher Well, they speak the same language that been together for more than 200 years So it's a different story, but there's another figure which I think is much more significant And the figure corresponds to the number of European citizens who are somehow exposed to another European country on an yearly basis Because they have family because they travel they go on holiday This figure is 50% so one European out of two Is somehow exposed to the European project, but the problem is the other 50% one after two is not exposed Why because historically the union has somehow put a specific premium On those who actually benefit from pre-movement the mobile people as opposed to the mobile one And this is clearly one of the challenges today also Head of these of these elections and this explains why over time already 20 years ago There's been an attempt at Europeanizing so fixing this original scene by creating some different rules of the game The first important rules of the game 2009 has been to embrace a timid form of parliamentarization That basically means that the choice of the press the European Commission has to reflect The parliamentary majority that is emerging from the ballot box And these has been a game changer is something that is really giving the final word to the European Parliament Because if the European Parliament won't vote by a majority They can lead a precedent designate precedent selected by the European Council Well, that precedent will never become a precedent and that Commission will never see the light of the day and ask Ursula von der Leyen when she only got eight vote of difference To actually become a designating a precedent in at the end of June 2019 this explains why in 2014 for the first time ever We had a system Scott so-called spits and candidaten that for the first time try to do the following trying to Convey to the average voter that when casting their ballot box the choice Their choice would have been at defining the political color of the European Commission itself And the rule at the time was that the party the European political party Getting the highest number of votes would have automatically receive the presidency of the count of the Commission and This was interesting to see mr. Junker as the lead candidate of the EPP became president However, when you fast forward you see that in 2019 not all European political parties selected the spits and candidaten and it's not only the liberals because Macron at the time We've renewal realized that it would have now never been possible to come on top of citizens preferences And they start boycotting the spits and candidaten process together with anti-european forces like Fidesz or Salvini lead in Italy by simply not selecting as a member of identity and democracy as spits and candidaten with their forehead already in 2019 a very Difficult situation to understand and unpack very few percentage point of the voters were Aware of the spits and candidaten process However, the turnout for the first time since 1979 went up and the question is Are we gonna be able in 2024 to maintain that same level of turnout? Big question mark all the more so because in 2019 None of the lead candidates who have been selected by the European political parties made it as a president of European Commission Certainly not man for Weber who was the spits and candidaten for the EPP on paper It should have been the one not France Timberman's who was the lead of the socially that came second and nor the liberals Which came third that means that the pick by the European leaders went To Ursula von der Leyen at the time minister of defense in Germany not running for the European Parliament Not with a European political program nothing Just falling from the sky and gaining control of the European Commission So the question at the time was and remains why should European citizens vote in 2024 if the political message they convey is not necessarily Automatically translated in the political priorities and not even into the political leadership of the European institutions But we simply witness an allocation of those posts Based on some calculus that political leaders make in close rules Hence the attempt once more to change the rules so they're gay So we spent three years in Brussels thinking how can we modify the European electoral law in order to ensure? Citizens to somehow choose and define both the political leadership and priorities of the next European Commission This was the promise of Ursula von der Leyen first statement She made in 2019 when she made it through the European Parliament vote this won't happen again Next time there will be new rules Defining clear accountability between the casting the ballot box and the appointment of the political leaders We are now four months away from the next European elections The electoral form hasn't be even considered by our member states the Parliament in his own work and trying to say Why don't we contest a number of seats not only at the national level but also in a pan-European college So that an Irish voter can actually vote for a German candidate a German candidate or a German citizen Or Slovenian could actually vote for an Irish candidate who would be representing all European citizens As the Treaty of Lisbon already say any piece represent all citizens not only their constituencies However, this idea was boycotted by the member states as well as other ideas like imposing the indication in the ballot box of The double logo the logo of the European political party So we are absolutely stuck and it seems very unlikely that these European electoral law will have any chance to be ratified before the next European elections If we fast forward and I'm coming to the very final part of my comments to you We can imagine that when we're gonna wake up as a result of these elections that is gonna take several days Why because the Dutch vote on Thursday? Some vote on Saturday some European citizens most of them vote on Sunday and the Italians keep voting on Monday morning To make sure the turnout is gonna be Acceptable enough, but on that week we're gonna wake up and we're gonna see a Parliament that looks very different than today There's a lot of speculation But essentially what we can take for granted is that the incumbent Establish largest political parties the European political party and the socialist and Democrats are gonna lose some seats So we're gonna be witnessing a sort of shrinking of the incumbent party as well as the Liberals Which represented a significant force in the current Parliament very much aligned in terms of voting behavior to the EPP and socialist And also the Greens who have been I would say a major political force in greening The political priorities of the Union are also set to lose big as a result of being sanctioned for their Political action in Germany where they are in government and greens party are not everywhere in Europe So they also suffer from that but a major transformation will occur on the right side of the political spectrum where we have been seeing major Figures coming for the European conservatives led by Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni supported by PIS the outgoing Polish Party that has been in government for a long time mr. Kaczynski and Also, other political parties around them Most likely we're gonna be seeing part of the far right in France. We have been seeing with marion Marichal who is the nephew of Marie Le Pen joining ECR and also Mr. Orban bringing a significant number of elected because Fidesz is gonna score high probably in that political party and also a difficult but Cozy relationship between the Conservatives and the idea so the most extreme party Le Pen Matias and Salvini and the AfD which is set to score very high in in Germany. So a lot of The political balance of the next European Parliament will depend on how the European new Conservatives a party that was originally Established by the British when they left the European popular party a couple of decades ago And the ID which is a more recent European political party identity in democracy are gonna be voting together We see an attempt of the Conservatives ECR a la Meloni to basically speech themselves as the moderate right Not anti you not questioning the very essence of the you Rather playing the game and the other real right Marine Le Pen I have the Salvini taking a much more colorful Anti-European stance not only alternative for Deutschland even Mentioning the possibility of a German exit from the European Union, which seems very far-fetched But this is possibly the only country which you still have political forces gaining points by selling an idea Which seems to be really expanding our over-the-window or what is possible and then 60% of the new Parliament being Inhabited by incoming new coming new babies. So new members of Parliament and bringing a lot of fresh net But also inexperience Which will probably also be a major defining factor in the way in which this Parliament will be looking at so as a prediction I expect greater Politicization the fact that Ursula von der Leyen has been endorsed by the EPP as their As a pizza candidate and the fact that she seemed to be the frontrunner We certainly politicized the overall conversation. She has been into office for five years. She has been trying to I would say Water a lot of fireplaces that were happening all over. She's been extremely reacted She proved they used to be resilient But at the same time she didn't get everything right and who is accountable to if she's not even running for the European Parliament And she's gonna be just coming out of a closed door room by European political leaders who basically say Tina There is no Alternative in the absence of better candidate or more consensual candidate. We need to endorse her That's where we are today, but this will lead in my view and you already sense That this is happening at the European Isation so back in 2019 back in 2014 We've been seeing pan-European parties like vault DM parties that try to present one Common political program a common pool of candidates across the European Union They were trying to push mainstream political parties to do the same that we're also running or allowing Italians running in France or having German candidates running in Italy and vice versa Well, I don't think we're gonna see much of it because we are actually the Europeanizing the political process at the very same time in which this is getting more political more visible more recognizable The average European citizens now know who is Madame von der Leyen what a paradox what is the risk and this is the very last slide Well, the risk is a risk of paralysis paralysis of the entire European policy cycle a commission Inhabited for the first time by Commissioner coming from rebellious party. Let's imagine from Hungary, but perhaps also from Italy or perhaps from let's imagine Portugal depending on how the elections are gonna go we'll Clearly represent a challenge for a college of commissioners that tend to vote Tend to vote very little to act consensually defining political priorities and acting autonomously from their political capitals But if we have One or two commissioners who are reporting back to their capitals on a weekly basis to represent the national interest Well, that's not what the commission is there for the commission job is to identify the European Interest which is not the sum of the national interest, but is yet another thing But this will inevitably reflect then on the European Parliament, which would be Possibly still dominated by mainstream political parties, but with a much weaker political support and we've Variable majority on different files where the right which might reach between the 25 and 30% of the entire Parliament will still be able To stop or delay or boycott the entire process So this would lead to a slowdown of the political The delivery of the political priority has slowed down of the policy legislation of the reformist Agenda of the European Union tasks somehow making Everything more difficult to agree upon at a time of unprecedented challenges to the European project at a time in which we face a very geopolitically shatter word will the European Union be able to deliver on his own decision-making in those Political conditions and for a taste of what has happened to us just imagine that on July The first 2025 the presidency of the Council of the European Union the Council of Minister will be taken over by Mr Orban as somebody who has been positioning himself as very pro-russian very close to the Kremlin Acting as a Trojan horse within the European Union still defiant vis-à-vis all the European leaders and Really not pushing back despite the major scandal that has been affecting his own party and some of his closest Advisor, so this is just a taste of what is waiting for us either There will be a major wake up by our European political leaders coming from The major political family or there is a high risk of seeing the European political project being hijacked by those forces That could be able to not only paralyze it is lowered down but also change in the very nature of the objective and operation of The European Union, so I'm gonna stop here. Hopefully I'm gonna give you I gave you enough Food for thought to get your your remarks your questions your reflections and comments and criticism, of course You