 After a mediocre wild card weekend from a football perspective. We are set for what should be a Delightful divisional round we hope coming up on Saturday and Sunday this week We're gonna today's break down the games both on Saturday and Sunday Let you know our favorite options may DFS perspective and get you set for what will hopefully be a better weekend of football Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula, he is the managing editor of number fire calm Brandon Divisional round coming in hot this weekend some really fun games scheduled. How you doing today? I'm glad you clarified that the fun games were scheduled I guess was that your way of saying that I'm not guaranteed in the in the vein of Kyle Shanahan We could all get hit by a meteor tomorrow and not be here So like you'd ever know I gotta I gotta bake in for the the hypotheticals Which I think is pertinent this week because there are a lot of question marks So I can question Derek Henry's usage and I can also question whether or not we'll be here on Saturday, you know, I Mean yeah, I Wasn't ready for an existential crisis at 10 a.m. On Thursday, but existential it's a fact Well, you know, what is consciousness? Who could say accurate? So how are you off to a great start again? Like I said, I'm I'm not I wasn't ready for this But you know, let's let's just focus on football. It'll make my brain not think about like meteors and comments and stuff But yeah, we got some good ones scheduled. I think Sunday is gonna be my preferred day But there's there's also kind of a feeling that that Saturday's games might actually be more enjoyable just because it could get a little bit You know, they kind of go either way I kind of have some You know, I don't think there are any clear favorites on Sunday either But you know, sometimes the games that I'm least expecting to be, you know close and fun Kind of can get a little bit messy and be a little bit fun The the four games this weekend my numbers have three of them as being What my numbers would expect to be a spread of less than a point. Um, it thinks they'll all be very very competitive I am excited for that. I think that it should be a fun week in a football And a lot of question marks and a lot of situations to discuss and we'll break those down our thoughts on them How to account for the question marks on this late in just one second But first we're listening on Sunday and you want to skip ahead to the Sunday only portion of the podcast Check out the episode description over on number fire Spotify, Apple, whatever it may be There'll be a timestamp in there that says when the Sunday only discussion begins to go there Check out the description and jump ahead to the Sunday only portion and hopefully Saturday went well for you also football fans We got a couple of big contests up this weekend over on fan duel calm for the Saturday only slate you can play For two hundred thousand dollars is a five dollar entry in the one million dollar Saturday million five dollar and she can turn that into two hundred thousand dollars for Saturday for Sunday Even a bigger contest also a five dollar entry with five hundred thousand dollars going to first place There is also a longest touchdown bonus So a lot of good stuff over at fandal.com eligibility restrictions apply Download the fandal app or go to fandal.com for more details All right, let's dive in here starting off with a Saturday only slate We'll we'll filter in discussion to about the full four game slate because similar to last week Although it's not the quote-unquote like main slate over on fandal. The four game slate offerings are still pretty good So I'm fine filtering in discussion of both these options Saturday is The Bengal said Titans right now the Titans are three and a half point favorites total is 47 there Total is also 47 for the night game to the Packers and the 49ers right now The Packers are six point favorites injuries for Saturday Derek Henry was cleared for contact this week He's expected to be activated from injured reserve by the Titans I'm sure what the work load will be we'll discuss that in just one second. Judy Garoppolo now dealing with a shoulder injury In addition to his thumb injury. He was limited in practice on Tuesday upgraded to full on Wednesday It sounds like it's actually kind of a concern So, you know, we'll talk about that Nick Bosa did not practice on Tuesday You do the concussion he suffered in the wild card round for the Packers Marquez Valdes gambling Got in a limited session on Tuesday after hurting his back on a week 18 But then he was downgraded it out on Wednesday or did not practice on Wednesday That's a concern. I'll Randall Cobb was also designated to return from his his major reserve Maybe activated for Saturday, which would be his first game since week 12 So potentially no MVS potentially with Randall Cobb Jimmy Garoppolo up in the air and we also have this Derek Henry discussion. So me Brandon I think the first decision we make on this slate is what do you do with Derek Henry? So I'm gonna start there looking at the Saturday only slate Where are you out on Derek Henry at $9,000 if we assume he's activated for Saturday? I mean, I think if we assume that he's activated We're assuming that he has a substantial workload. We're at the very least a ton of goal line work Which kind of makes the concerns about Derek Henry a little bit less because this isn't like a Like a Clyde Edwards you layer coming back and we saw Derek McKinnon have a workload And then we're guessing it who's gonna have the goal line work if Derek Henry is active He's gonna get the ball inside the 10. We know that he might not be as productive, you know between the 20s But you know overall The the touchdown upside is still there and it doesn't take a whole lot on a two-game slate to be relevant I know this salary is high and that's gonna restrict what you can do elsewhere, but You know these two game slates even the four game slate it comes a lot to come down a lot to like Game theory opportunity cost and if you say, hey, you know what I could play Devonte Adams Or Debo Samuel or Derek Henry and I'm gonna play the angle that that 49ers Packers game is just gonna be a little But lower scoring none neither those two are gonna go off and Derek Henry is gonna You know walk into touchdowns because I think that you know Tennessee is gonna come out and just beat up on the Bangles because they had the bi week the bangles as much as I love them They've got their concerns. They can kind of let you know have some letdown spots. I think for Derek Henry You know if we knew 100% he was full if this was prime Derek Henry full season transitioning in I'd say nine thousand is too low right now I think The nine thousand salary is fair because I have a really hard time Assuming that Derek Henry won't score unless the Titans are just awful Yeah, and I think the salary assumes that he's not full because if he were full he would not be nine thousand I think he'd be 95 97 somewhere in that range most likely from a salary perspective So if we look at what Derek Henry did pre injury versus other guys, let's just say for the full four game slate He had 136 yards per game In his eight games for his injury 48% red zone share 27 carries two and a half targets per game It's an amazing workload. Nobody else in their most relevant sample outside of depending on how you view Jerick McKinnon I'm just gonna toss him out. Nobody else was above a hundred and two point nine Yards from scrimmage per game in the most relevant sample the other guy who is above a hundred is Leonard Burnett also coming off I are but this week so to me The gap in production between Henry is wide enough or even if I assume that he's 80% Which I think is fair He's still going to be the top running back straight up and to me He's still going to be a worthwhile play so to me I asked myself one of the odds he is truly truly limited and then I you know reduce my exposure that much I asked myself one of the odds he is Full but doesn't isn't super productive to pay off 9,000 reduce my my exposure that much Kind of go through those adjustments of the different paths of failure figuring out the probability those odds hit and then allocating exposure that way I think that's kind of the way I want to play things, but just putting a lot of thought into You know What would it look like if you were limited or it look like if he were a full and considering, you know The probabilities of those separate options Yeah, I mean Look Cincinnati is not a run defense. We have to worry about too much. So even Derek Henry not full I think that the again, it's the 9,000 salary is high It's gonna cause you to get a little bit different at other positions It's gonna be hard to play him with receivers But you know, I think it's a fair salary like you said it it does adjust for the fact that he's not a hundred percent and Again, the thing that I just keep coming back to is we might have question marks We might have some red flags with Derek Henry But the one thing for certain is that he's going to get the ball, you know inside the five inside the ten and one or two touchdowns with 60 yards on like 15 carries like that's gonna do it on a two-game slate. So yeah, you know, I'm not gonna guarantee him for two touchdowns But if anybody can walk back into a partial role and get two scores It's there can the other key decision at running back on the slate to me is the Packers running backs because if we Take their regular season usage at like face value and assume that they stick with that It's pretty tough to justify or in Jones and 75 even on a two-game slate Like you could use him because he has like he could be a top-two score on the slate pretty easily because it's a two-game slate But I think that there is a possibility his role expands from what it was during the regular season reasons, I think that are If you look at look at the games he played a half the snaps He was at 13.6 rushes and 4.7 targets per game in that span pretty good Marks and we know we can be very efficient on the touches. He gets as well David Bakhtiari back for the Packers this week as well Maybe no mark has out of the scamming which I think hurts the entire offense But does increase the target projection for Aaron Jones and the fact that he sat out week 18 has had the buy to rest up That to me signals they value him a lot AJ Dylan played the end of the second half and that week 18 game I think reading the tea leaves. I Want to bump up Aaron Jones workload from what it was during the regular season. So I think to me You know if I look at a 88 yards per game at $7,500 that's tough, but I'm okay still being in on him You know do I give him above Eli Mitchell probably not because Mitchell is going to get that work whereas Jones It's more like a a projection slash hope, but I think he's like Sniffing Mitchell's tier is the way I do it due to the potential for him to get really good workload in a must-win game What about where are you viewing the Packers running backs? So yeah for me? I'm higher on Jones than Dylan for sure I'm not viewing it as like a kind of a 50-50 thing by any means I think that like you said if we if we think about it It's going to be Aaron Jones is the is the majority back that does not mean that you know he As you don't can come in on the five and score those touchdowns, which is a concern especially on a two-game slate whenever you need things to go your way So I think that answers the question about Aaron Jones specifically where I think he is Close to so I guess it depends on if you put Derek Henry in his own tier. I Might Yeah, maybe a half tier behind or a full tier behind then would be Joe mixon and Eli Mitchell But but Aaron Jones is I think pretty comfortably in that then third tier behind those other three backs because You know, I know we're talking about Aaron Jones in this back vote specifically but it's impossible on a two-game slate to talk about you know running backs without context of the bigger slate and look I One thing that really bugged me with that Raiders Chargers game to end the regular season was people ripping on the Chargers for having a bad run defense and saying like Oh, you can't be a good team with a bad run defense. This is why packers are horrible run defense We know what the 49ers want to do. Yeah, they might have Trey Lance like, you know, I don't want to say that but even without that, I think Elijah Mitchell is Easily a tier above Aaron Jones for me And so I can't sit here and say yeah, I'm gonna have shares of literally all five of those or all I guess all four of those top Running backs may be throw an AJ Dylan is like some wrinkles I'm probably gonna be more likely that I just don't have any Aaron Jones And I just focus on Henry mixing and Mitchell across my Saturday slate lineups So you play differently than I do where you fewer lineups and you're more concentrated and stuff like that I play enough where I will get Aaron Jones for sure I think that the way I want to do things here though with running back Compared to the rest of the slate is I think I want to limit myself to Two running backs per lineup because I have concerns around all these guys, you know, Mitchell doesn't get a lot of passing game work That's a concern Nixon You know, I mean, he's very good But like also we just saw that he isn't a lock to pull to pull through even he gets good usage last week So to me I want to if I just use two running backs per line I've been use a receiver in the flex for every lineup I'm naturally gonna limit my exposure to the running backs And I think that that's what I want to do For this specific two game slate to keep things in check there. So I'm still gonna have Aaron Jones. So I'm gonna have You know Joe Nixon, but I think to me I'm ranking them Considering salary, I think that he let Mitchell actually isn't Derek Henry's tier personally. I think that it's Mitchell won Henry to mix and three Jones for but I I think I'll be relatively flat in Like I'll have it'll be a sliding scale there, but it's not gonna be as drastic of an exposure difference at running back as I typically have I Will I will say pretty pretty easily. I'm gonna take a stand on Eli Mitchell for this week because the matchup is like we know what San Francisco wants to do I'm not saying that they won't play from behind, but they did You know give Dak Prescott a lot of problems I won't comment on the talent gap between Aaron Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott But Dak Prescott's definitely not, you know, just some Bottom bottom rung pastor or anything. So more than just a guy very much. So yes So this game for me projects to stay close enough throughout that San Francisco can keep the ball On the ground as much as they want to for the most part And so if you give me three quarters, even of Eli Mitchell getting carries Against this run defense that doesn't really it's this defense isn't just not really primed to stop the run I think Mitchell's the number one overall And for me then yeah, Henry's the number two followed by mixing and then Aaron Jones Okay, so let's talk about quarterback here. And I think one of the key things to keep in mind is we don't know the status of Marquez Valdes scantling yet because That would actually impact how I view Aaron Rodgers because otherwise it's Rodgers by a decent margin Looking at the Packers with MVS this year Rodgers specifically you can isolate by passer. So no Jordan Loven here Rodgers with MVS is at 0.22 EPA per drop back court in next gen stats. He's at 0.17 without MVS his CPoE is 4.9 percent. So completion percentage over expectation is 4.9 percent. It's 1.9 without MVS Success rate goes down 4 percentage points, too So I think that actually does matter if MVS can't go In the sense that it does down like they just have less speed if it's lasard cob And divante out there at the same time It would not make Rodgers not be the number one quarterback I still have number one, but it would increase my willingness to go with Joe burrow over Rodgers You know in a larger chunk of lineups I think the interesting thing would be if Trey Lance starts because his salary is $6,200. I don't think that's the most likely scenario I think that Jimmy Garoppolo will start, but I think it's at least worth discussing what we do if Lance were to go so to me Rodgers is one My enthusiasm around putting in there is dependent on the status of Marquez Valdes scantling I will put him there enthusiastically if MVS goes It'll be less enthusiastic if MVS can't go. How are you viewing quarterback for saturday only? Yeah, I mean the simple answer is that Aaron Rodgers is The number one, but you'll have to allocate that salary for him or you can save at least 700 to get to burrow um Or 1,100 for ryan tannahill I know we're not the biggest tannahill guys generally, but I think whenever you factor in The particular situation that the tannahill's in kind of getting that buy against the team that Has really had two tough games back to back or sorry That had that game last week That didn't really go according to plan. I think they should have probably had a better better game than they did For me, I think tannahill is still on the conversation I will say jo burrow has been pretty match-up dependent the titans are you know pretty solid Past defense. They're not an outlier good past defense, but Even against top 10 Past defense is jo burrows been pretty solid 293 yards one and a half touchdowns per game for 17.1 fandal points on average across four games So like he's fine, but I think that if i'm trying to save salary It's not so clear cut that it's jo burrow over ryan tannahill that i'm going to sit here and say like Hey burrows clearly in the second tier over over tannahill I think tannahill stacked with aji brown Is very much in play to try to get a little bit different and on a two game slate Anytime you can get different without being careless. I'm not saying play jimmy garoppolo That's not what i'm saying, but ryan tannahill's not Like he's closer to jo burrow than he is to jimmy garoppolo Right and the consumer tannahill is always upside and like if you give me a 13 game slate The odds that one out of 26 quarterbacks goes for 30 points is very high If you give me a four game slate or a two game slate of four quarterbacks the odds that one of them goes for 30 points is a lot lower there are non-zero odds that none of them get to 20 which case upside is less of a concern So like tannahill is more in play as a result of that than he typically would be I agree with your thoughts on that Where would you be on trey lance if he were to start this game for the 49ers? So for the salary that that opens up, I think I'd have to be pretty high Would he be above burrow for you? I think he'd be on par with burrow Because of the the access to the receivers that we could then get We haven't talked tight end I don't think that that conversation will be a long one on saturday because it's pretty bleak So we don't have like a travis kelsie that we're trying to roster And as it is now like, you know, while i'm just brushing up on on the tight end situation We have george kittle at 64, but george kittle's role has not been like Good, this is not really like a george kittle's way under salaried and we're dealing with either a non 100% jamie caroppolo Or trey lance neither of those are good for george kittle. So like Probably save some salary at tight end If we can save and roster a starting quarterback for 62 You're gonna have you you can take your pick between divante debo jamar and a g brown That's really appealing, especially if you don't play derek henry in those lineups. So based on that alone I think that I'd say let's say i'm building 10 lineups for the the two game slate um I think lance is in probably four of them Okay, that's fair. I can get on board that I think that I'd have him above burrow pretty definitively and a lot of that's because I have concerns around the bangles offensive line holding up against titan's defensive line We've seen them dominate bad lines before and with the right tackle, you know for the Riley reefing out for the bangles. I think that that's like a legitimate concern. That's worth considering here. So to me I'd still have rogers one, but I think that if there's no mvs I'd put lance in the same tier as rogers Followed by burrow if it's garoppolo. I don't care. I'm not gonna use him But um, otherwise, I think that's where I'd be. Okay, uh, you talk about titan Let's let's do that and we'll finish up with wide receiver after that because I think that you know titan is a quick discussion You have kittle at 64 cj. Yuzama is $5,500 then it's anthony furkser Who barely plays is $5,200 Josiah diguara is 49 I think to me yuzama is one to save the salary also might have more targets than george kittle on sunday Kittle's still too because like he can have a big game in his range of outcomes. That's worth factoring in and then I put diguara three Like if I go with your 10 lineup Thing I would say I'm probably five yuzama for kittle one diguara Like that's probably where I'm at right now. We're already sitting on the titans I'm fine. I mean, you're really just you're the real decision you have to make is What do we get from george kittle this week? Yeah, exactly if it is vintage george kittle and you pass him up at 64 You're just you're toast Um, but I think that george kittle is going to be way more popular than he deserves to be for what the current situation suggests therefore I think the right play is to be a little bit low on on kittle because Almost everyone's gonna have the salary to roster kittle at 64 They're the underlying data is just not really there to say oh, he's just primed for a bounce back. It's like a weird it's like a weird blip Um, that's not really what's going on The role has just been really different and again Either quarterback situation whether it's a hurt jimmy or tray lance is not good for kittle So I think I'm highest on yuzama as well And I'm I feel pretty good with that honestly yuzama's fine. Um, he's at Six targets are more in five out of his past six games because they've been throwing more And I think that that's encouraging for him. So I'm fine at that. I'm not totally bummed about that If we look at the time since t. Higgins returned In exclude week 18 you zamas at a 13 target share 14 in the red zone. That's fine as far as kittle goes I think the most relevant talking point here is looping in all the 49ers um If we look at the games since kittle returned with debos daniel and illy mitral both being active Kittles at 38 yards per game brandon i youth because it's 79 Debo is at 100 and illy mitral is at 106.3 Mitchell has 26 percent of the red zone work whereas debos at 29 percent yukas one red zone chance that entire time, which is concern Kittles at it l in 11 red zone share. So I think mitral and debo are in the same tier. I would say iukes in his own tier and then kittles in his own tier That's where i'm at with the San francisco guys talk about actually talking about kittle. How do you view debo and iuk relative to the other receivers on this saturday? Yeah, so I anyone who's listened to the show knows I Have a hard time with debo because he's really hard to project because his role is not very typical Yeah, just Yeah, just outside the parameters of what I can comprehend I guess he's second in the league in yards per outrun and second in the league in rushing yards over expectation per carry If you exclude quarterbacks, it's wild Absolutely wild, but yeah, I mean the you know The conversation of hey tray lance lets you roster debo. Is that like a Is that really a stacky one like what what kind of what are you thinking with debo if it's tray lance? So they'll just get enough rushes that it doesn't matter and like a sprinkle of targets So I actually don't worry as much about the targets personally because Well, this is a little narrative you betray lance from minnesota, um the motherland Went to school at north. I know they play in a dome in north dakota state But like hey, he's from minnesota. He went to college in north dakota He's one of us hashtag one of us. He'll be fine in the cold So he'll be fine at lambo. All right. Yeah, exactly. Uh, but also like in that houston game I love that it's the the narrative is now he'll be fine But fine for tray lance is Just not throwing the ball anyway No, no, no, no, no, no, no in that game against houston. I just about to say this Yijibro, okay in that game against houston They had a 50 early down first half pass rate. Whoa, that's the exact same number. It is a jimmy garoppolo like I think yeah, but like you lower the pass expectation You don't Nuke it completely and like debo is going to get rushing attempts still. He's going to get some targets Going to get some yards I still think that debo is fine Yeah, i'm not i'm not saying any of this to talk myself out of or anyone out of debo It's a matter of how heavy you would go at debo You know with tray lance I will say that their non garbage time pass rate so that when they're pre snap win probability Was between 20 and 80 percent the past two games with jimmy and elie mitchell back 43.9 percent I mean and again and again and again destroyed thumb. Why would you why would you not? Why would you throw a jimmy and again? We're it's the packers whose weakness on defense is stopping the run I'm not saying that I don't want to play debo because debo is going to get creative targets and a lot of carries But if we send that out to like the george kittle conversation There's not going to be a lot of passing volume if this game goes according to plan for the 49ers So I think that this is the way I view it. Um If I use lance I can get to debo without costing myself divante And I think that's the main appeal Because using debo typically robbed you of divante because if we're allocating let's say rogers at $8400 and have divante in there We're cutting it pretty thin you can make a rogers divante derrick henry lineup work You have to you have to lower your standards a lot at some spots Uh, I was tinkering around tinkering around with that yesterday But like you can make that work, but if I can go lance divante debo and get I don't know a lot of workload from those two guys. I think that is attractive So I think the appeal of lance with debo is that it means I can use debo with divante And that's something I do want for this week if I can get there Yeah, I am gonna then gonna have if I do that I'm gonna have tre lance debo plus elie initial I want to say I got to just be all right with but I think we get every yard they get it's gonna be great Now that's true. That's true Because debo and elie and lance will get all the rushing Correct And lance will really I mean iuk will get his like Kai you Kai you shack will get a touchdown, uh, brend and iuk rushing juan jennings two tuts No juan jennings passing touchdown to george kittle Or kittle passing dot jennings. I don't know whoever it's the better throw there. That'll happen But I I think that that there is appeal in in having all three of those guys Yeah, for sure I could even consider I could consider a full four man stack with lance mitchell samuel and iuk in those spots where I say look Cincinnati, Tennessee is just going to be they're going to run the clock out. It's going to be pretty low scoring I know these totals are identical at 47 Um, but you know, that's that doesn't mean they're each going to score 47 points You say you pull a gym you tell yourself a story you say It is you know since natty, Tennessee Not going to have a lot of fantasy points. I can get value it with iuk and and uh trailance Debo's going to do his thing mitchell's going to get his 20 plus carries That's honestly not the worst play Yeah, I'm more into iuk if if jimmy plays that's he's kind of the one Guy who I would say gets influenced most by the quarterback decision But like even the game where they're lance played against houston iuk at at that time a season high in yards at 94 He reset that the next week of jimmy, but like, you know I think that's a positive thing also jimmy is from illinois like he's not going to be He'll be fine the cold too But I think the trailance is from minnesota and will secretly crush at lambo is my favorite narrative Maybe that's actually what's going on. Maybe jimmy's fine, but um They want to unleash trail. He's like he probably grew up a vikings fan Probably hates the packers. I think it's a trailance revenge game secret low-key trailance revenge game also north Dakota states color is very similar to to green bays. It's a little bit of a Comfortable colors narrative comfortable uniforms narrative. I don't know. We got we got a couple narratives and trailance is favorite this week I think yeah, I think like the latitude narrative is Yeah, yeah, yeah, whichever starting quarterback is from the higher latitude in the playoffs Lance is from like moorhead. I'm pretty sure um, which is Uh trailance hometown He is from marshall I technically have I technically am a sophomore at university of uh, uh minnesota minnesota like something I got credits in high school which did not transfer to where I went to college So, uh, I could uh, we can we can go to marshall. Uh, we can hang out there. I'll go to school trailance. Anyway Let's the rest of the receivers talk about demo talk about a uke What is you with the rest of the receiver slate for saturday? Yeah, I mean the vante is a clear cut above everyone else I have him 33 likely to lead receivers on the saturday slate in fandal points 37 likely to get over 20 um, that's that's pretty nice. So I mean that's not a I like a bold take but Realistically 87. So I actually think like it's it's fair to note that though What Wait, sorry, you said davante, right? Yeah. Yeah, he's only $7, so I think it's fair to know how good his his upside is Okay, well, yeah, I didn't know what you meant because I was gonna say I was gonna say you can kind of just say Hey, what I rather play Derek Henry or davante You know full slate super healthy Derek Henry. I'd say Henry because we'll have more value at receiver Davante's ability to kind of bust open the slate is as high as Derek Henry's who's not like without Henry being 100% So I think that that's a fair conversation. Um, and I agree by the way. Yeah, so like yeah I think realistically davante Like I think Eli Mitchell is the best play At salary across all positions on the slate Davante might be number two I have one more I'll propose but you can talk through the rest of receivers first. I agree that they're they're T. Higgins Maybe it's probably yeah, that makes sense. It's 64. No, there's there's another guy's up there, too It's not just T. What? No, I'm not not telling you not spoiling is it? Uh, it's Julio Jones, huh? Of course it's Julio Jones So, yeah, I mean, I think davante's in a great spot and then debo a g brown jamar chase It's almost like a take your pick And that comes down to like what games you're stacking more. That's kind of a Cold take to have but I think that it's you know, I projected out close enough that I really think it comes down to like Which quarterbacks are you using which you know, what's your narrative for this particular lineup? Okay, I don't think I had to sell people on tea. I know that like last week was rough Um, it was very painful for me because I had a lot of tea I don't think I'd sell people on that. I think people realize that like hey So I got a 23 share uh since he returned 30 of the deep targets. I think they get I don't need to sell them But I'm gonna sell them anyway. Right. All right. I'm guessing when I when I said Julio I'm guessing either a people turn the podcast off or b Gave whatever device listening to just double barrel middle fingers like did the Eli Manning Yeah, Eli Uh, Eli's one who gave double birds on tv They gave they gave me the Eli Manning and said no you idiot. However, wait, wait, wait It's actually Julio Yeah, okay I thought that was a bit. I thought that was a bit. No, I love Julio. Um, okay, so In the games with the big three quote unquote big three healthy AJ Brown 28 share. He's under salary. I agree 76 is too low Julio's at 18 percent Not too shabby 25 percent of the deep targets and 22 percent of the red zone Yes, Julio is allowed to get red zone work at times. I don't think he scored it all during the regular season But um, he he did get some red zone work AJ Brown is 56 to the deep targets like that's absurd also When did Julio Jones set a season high in targets that was in week 18 healthier than Four of those nine targets were deep Kind of interesting. He had the buy week to get that hamstring healthier. He is $5,600 Facing off against the Bengals will be allocating a lot of resources stopping a very very very very very good AJ Brown and Derek Henry I think Julio Jones at $5,600 helps unlock a lot I'm into it. I'm very into Julio. It's gonna hurt and I'm gonna regret it by A game starts at 4 30 so 4 37. I think is the disappointment zone For Julio, but I think It's the right way to play things here. So I'll say this um A lot of Well, I won't say a lot because it's kind of straw man But there's enough of a sentiment that it only takes one play or like one touchdown for a value receiver to be relevant in dfs On a main slate, that's not the case. You need more than that On a two game slate even a four game slate at a salary that low Give him six seven targets a touchdown You know 75 or you're 85 yards like that's a pretty big game I know but I I think you sold me Okay, I did not sell one eye jack on youtube. They said uh, when he limps off after a seven yard catch in the first quarter That's the 4 37 zone when I jack. I agree. Like that's definitely within the range of outcomes. So like I you want to like so I keep like Just a little behind the curtain here I do a hand build and I like put the names in an excel spreadsheet So I can track exposures as I go and kind of see the combinations by eye I will have a close eye on my Julio Jones allocation because I gotta make sure I don't go too heavy, but Other guys in that range from a salary perspective So tyler boyd brandon. I youk. They're fine. No objections to them. I think that's totally okay You can sell me on those guys for sure. He's below Alan lasard. Fine, you know, I get lasard But then you get to marquez valdo scamling is hurt ramo cob coming off. I are nick rustbrook akina juan jennings Like it's I know julio always gets hurt. I know he's not been good this year. I have not used julio since like week three I will use him here and I think that it's it's wise to do so so in The the name that I keep coming back to that I actually assumed you were talking about down here was alan lasard Um, if you look at games with him without marquez valdo scamling, he's got a 13 target share Which isn't good A lot came earlier in the season, but yeah, it did so it came weeks four to seven is when mvs is out and lasard It feels like he gained rogers his trust more so down the stretch, but that also came with ramo cob out and cob is back and like Cob overlaps more with lasard than lasard overlaps with mvs so I would assume that there are three receivers that would be mvs lasard and cob and lasard would probably be out there in two receiver sets too But like not having mvs is is is a little scary still. You said there are three receivers that would be Sorry, i took out divante divante lasard cob. Yeah, receiver set be divante and lasard. Yes. Yes. Thank you No, it was a good good desk clarification there But yeah, I mean week 16 mvs didn't play lasard had five targets, which was 15 percent Two reds on 1d, but again, it's it's fine. It's not substantially better than julio jones as you pointed out his recent workload, so Well, I think actually I don't think lasard's ever had as many targets this year as julio did in week 18 Let me check that Okay, lasard's max this year is seven julio had nine in that game and like lasard's not a I think early. Yeah, but he had nine in week 18 Sorry, sorry, sorry my bad. I misunderstood the point my bad. Sorry. I back off. I back off. I I Okay, okay Okay, uh priority plays for the saturday slate when it all boils down to it Who are you viewing as quote-unquote priorities for saturday? Absolutely elie mitchell. Yes, uh divante Are there any others that you I guess like jamar chase and a j brown So I guess realistically it's the receivers who I consider is like I think mitchell's the only receiver to I've used like a priority. I will use henry. Sorry. Yeah running back Uh, I will use henry a decent amount, but like Not sure priority is the right label for him I would say divante is number two priority Then we get to like tea and tea and julio relative to sour I think that they are in that discussion too. Um any any aj dylan for you That's 61 well like it's within in the range of outcomes for the cappers the packers to just Trounce, I don't think it's very likely because I think the 49ers are gonna be competitive here But like hey, I mean stuff happens So But do you think it takes a drubbing for aj dylan to have a role? Is that how far you are with erin jones? No, you're probably right. So like Again, like 50 yards and a touchdown at 61 on a two game slate. Yeah on like nobody. I think it's reasonable I'm a bit more likely to play erin jones or uh aj dylan than erin jones. I'm definitely not there, but For salary like because I'm gonna play Eli so much. Yeah, I don't know. Um He's probably a 10 percenter type guy. I don't know Yeah, I try not to do that too much. Yeah. No, I mean that's the right way to play things That's not how I I don't play do as I say not as I do one of everyone. Yeah, exactly 10% less come on Yeah, so I think the overall takeaway for me is I want to prioritize Eli Mitchell and davante adams I want to go receiver in the flex in order to naturally reduce my exposure to the running backs Play things like that. Any final thoughts for you on the saturday slate? I guess like technically cg yuzama might be a priority play Like by default So let's talk about the sunday only slate because things a lot less grim there at tight end The sunday only slate starts off with the rams at the buccaneers. Uh, the buccaneers are three point favorites there total is 48 and a half. I believe in that game. Yeah 48 and a half The second game is the bills of the cheese total there is 54 and a half Cheese are one and a half point favorites there injuries here Leonard for net was practicing for the buccaneers on Wednesday said he'll play on instagram. I believe this week He practiced last week too, and he's still questionable But it sounds like it's encouraging for for net for shot pair of men serial Grayson and ronald jones did not practice on wednesday And then also center ryan jensen and right tackle tristan worse both in this practice Those are both like kind of all pro level type dudes along the offensive line Pretty noteworthy there on the ramside left tackle andrew whitworth Didn't practice due to a knee issue on wednesday Sounds like he will not practice throughout this week, but could still play on sunday with the chief's tyree killin cladden It was elea were both full participants on wednesday Darrell williams did not practice due to his toe injury So the sunday slate is very similar to saturday where I have question marks for a lot of running backs How much of the buxies lenny if he comes back? Do we see cam makers roll continue to get even better? What do the chiefs do? Like I think that and then devon single terry is still a deity, but like that's that's kind of the one Sure thing on this slate How are you viewing the running backs here? We can go team by team if you want or have you want to handle that? Uh running backs. I mean it's it's single terry is like Where is he relative to mitchell for you on the four game slate? Um, I think behind mitchell, but only barely I've got him above mitchell Double tutty. I still worry about yeah, I I added red zone data to my like Pass rate stuff just as kind of see and I'm it does worry me how pass heavy they are in the red zone still Yeah, if you look at the six games with him as a lead back He's at a 36 red zone share elie mitchell in the games with debo being full as a 28 percent. So I think that it's like you know They both have red zone concerns I think that mitchell's yardage upside is probably better. So yeah, I should go mitchell, uh, but I just feel A little bit more certain with the bills off the bills off and uh, Than the 49ers despite the fact that I do a faith in them too. So I'd say four game slate. I'm Like I'm going to build around elie and single terry. So I'm kind of just splitting hairs for that Yeah, sure. Um, but yeah for the so if we're talking sunday only, uh, running backs, it's going to be single terry number one And then cam acres we can have all the concerns we want With cam acres and whether his role will expand but as it is now for a salary of 57 I'm fine with what his role is With that, you know, 50 ish percent snap rate. Just he looks good. Like I I didn't think he'd look so good so soon That's that's wild to think about. Um, three red zone carries last week Uh, you know 21 adjusted opportunities. So For that salary any yards You got two deep targets So I think two I don't know if one count is deep but like they're both like downfield. Yeah for Yeah, I almost had that long catch too, but He did have a long catch from the better quarterback on the team. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry but, um Yeah, so cam acres 57 like I know claire rugiler got into full practice. He's also 57 I can't even Think of a spot where I would rather play ceh than cam acres So I'm going to lock in single terry and acres virtually into every single lineup on sunday And then maybe I'll have learned for net. I'm probably just going to try to avoid the chief's backfield so I think the the sunday slate is very simple when it comes to running back because I feel good about two of them I also don't like I don't feel like terrible about sony michelle for 53. I did that not using him Not 40 42 percent snap rate To two right down probably yes, but if it doesn't it's viable But again point remains single terry acres. I might lock into every lineup for the two game slate. Yeah um So I think if we talk about the four game slate with acres in there To me, he's at least in the same tier as michel and single terry When you consider that salary, yeah, and so like if I have so I was building four game lineup earlier I wanted to have michel Single terry and acres in there because it allows me to get to you know divante divo cup You know the tyreek the really high-end guys and spend up a tight end I might have to settle for for net uh over a over michel and i'm okay with that but like I think The key takeaway for me is that running back on the sunday only slate is a lot better They're running back on the the saturday only slate and I would say Both single terry and acres are standouts not only for the sunday only slate, but for their four game slate as well That's an absolutely. Yep. I'm with there. Okay. Some of the cheese backfield. Um, I think that If I were to use anybody In that backfield would be mckinnon just because he's looked good. Um and like This team's also done enough of like the hot hand stuff that they're not going to be married to giving ceh's Usual workload. Um, I think mckinnon is going to be the guy And so I have to like ask myself. What are the odds he plays? A decent role Like he's the 1a ceh the 1b because it's $6,000. That's kind of what you need is like a 1a situation Given that like he's probably working the passing game. He had six targets on sunday. Uh 12 carries 142 yards so like I think if I'm tearing out running back it is acres and single terry tier one Lenny tier two by himself Tier three. There's no one mckinnon is tier four And then it drops off to everyone else. I think that's where I'd be there I think mckinnon's Tier three if not tier two and a half. Okay. Um, you know, he played 79 of the snaps 24 adjusted opportunities with those six targets 12, uh 12 carries. We know that he Has that ability to to catch the ball out of the backfield, which is Um, you know, I try to keep some of these takes to myself But I'm gonna say this one like they they brought in ceh to be that guy And he hasn't really been that guy Yeah, if mckinnon can be that guy, which you and I both adore jerrick mckinnon. He's like It's got like he's not really coming out of nowhere. I know that You know, he has I had just put my mckinnon poster in in the closet and all of a sudden he's back, you know I gotta rip it back out. You know, it's annoying. So I really I really do think that he is You know on par at salary I won't say as close. He's not on par with Derek Henry, but I think he's you know that tier behind him or a half tier Like a half step behind him. So I think I'm much higher on mckinnon than you then you seem to be Yeah, um I think the question is like why would they go back to ceh? Well, the question is this did they use mckinnon because they think he's very good Or did they use mckinnon because they think their wounds is very bad slash hurt But did they find out that jerk mckinnon is good? I mean, I I think he is right but like I just get in their heads and I I have to like acknowledge that I don't know Coach's decision-making as well. Yes. That's something we talk about all the time Yeah, and so like if if I were Andy Reid, Jennifer can never would have been on the bench again with because he's the best um, but like if I were I'm not Andy Reid Andy Reid is a very smart guy and like maybe he thinks that ceh is better and they did Put ceh back in his old role when he first came back from his injury He was a full on wednesday I think that the odds that that this is a time share to the point where mckinnon is not going to pay off Even at $6,000 are very high. Um, but I also think that there are situations where he is at same back so I kind of want to You know allocate my exposures accordingly. What are the odds mckinnon gets his same role or a good enough role on sunday? 30% you know, that's kind of the thought process. I want to go through again Yeah, so like I said, I'm going to play acres and singletary in virtually every lineup Then I will rotate in some flex plays between on the Just talking sunday. Yeah, I'll play some lenny in the flex not that I'm you know, I gotta make sure the times work out But just for simplicity sake. Um for net Uh, mckinnon will be rotated into the flex. They're not going to be you know locked in plays So again, that just kind of speaks to where I am with those guys, but it does include mckinnon Probably doesn't include ceh. I would be more nervous about ceh than I would be with mckinnon I don't think I'll use ceh. I don't because like even when he had his good role He wasn't really doing a whole lot with it. So like yeah, is it gonna burn me We're not using him probably not it could burn me for not using mckinnon. That's that's the way I do that as far as lenny goes um I thought he'd play last week um So that was kind of a bummer and like that does impact How I view him here because if he had come back when he was first eligible to come up I are I would have felt very good about him the fact that he needed an additional week to me as a tiny bit concerning I still think he comes back to a very good role, which is why I like him a lot at seven thousand But like offensive line is banged up Giovanni Bernhard looked pretty healthy in Four net stead. I don't think he's showing a lot of volume and feature in if Lenny were there So I think that like I take four nets where I'd usually view him because I usually I'd view him in the same tier as I probably have number one Above single terry and acres if it weren't for the fact that he sat last week The fact that he sat means I do put him a tier below But I do still want to be in on him a pretty decent amount because I think they're like The odds he gets his rollback are a lot higher than ceh and phrase it that way And he can do a lot with the work he gets. That's where I'm at with him What are your thoughts on Lenny here? Yeah, so if I project out for net for his full workload, he's the best play on the the sunday slate However, I don't know if that will be the case because you know, he's Been trending toward playing but then didn't play last week. And so like Yes, he's a weak removed from that, but You don't really want to see someone Assume that he like think that he's healthy and then not sort of play like maybe there's a little more to it So, you know for net again more of a rotational play But if this was full under for net, you know, he played last week 7 000 don't even care what He produced last week. I would say he's the number one on the slate Where do you view for net in the hierarchy of the four game slate? So we're putting in henry mixon jones michael, etc, etc Where does he slot in there for you? um, I think for me he's gonna be behind michael Behind acres Behind single terry He might be He might be fourth then Maybe now i'd say fifth behind henry Even henry are fighting for that that fourth on the four on the four game slate. I have Well, I have, you know ostensibly more value at like receiver But I also have studs at a tight end that I would rather get to so henry's gonna be a Henry might be a hearse on the four game slate Because we have like more stud receivers and You add in mike evans terry kale cooper cup gabriel davis For priorities to get to but like kelsey kelsey and groanke. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so I I agree josh allen in my homes Yeah, so let's talk about that let's have a quarterback here for the sunday slate Uh, how are you ranking things here and where do you view them relative to rogers if we filter in saturday as well? Okay, uh, ranking them for sunday only is in order of salary um, allen maholms brady stafford if I went tiers i'd say allen tier one um maholms tier two brady stafford probably Tier three. I know we had this conversation before the show that you think tom brady is the best play on I've backed i've backed off that. Um, okay. I thought maybe that's where this was going I thought more about it. No, I think the worths and jensen thing does Does yeah, but especially for me, especially from you I'm bristling at the idea of maholms being a tier below allen I think that like he's below allen because allen is again Turned into lamar jackson from a rushing perspective. Um, like he's running it Uh, let's see here eight uh eight point eight times per game the past six games With 68 rushing yards per game. I think that it is the most relevant sample because That was that bucks game where it became clear. They needed to win make the playoffs not just like, you know, win the division They ran him a lot. That's why the same number for single theory is past six games So you're getting 6.8 points from rushing yardage alone Not factoring in touchdowns. That's why I put josh allen one We also have seen maholms run a bit more in these higher leverage games They're at home um He's been amazing since they're by even with the fact that they have been A bit more conservative in terms of like chucking it deep So I think that it's allen and maholms in the same tier. I still put allen one But I think they're in the same tier maholms hasn't been that good against top 10 defenses The bills are a pretty legitimate defense. Um, my data has maholms at 226 yards Uh per game in you know against these These top 10 defenses playing well below expectation I think that it's pretty clearly for me allen Trying to pull out my numbers here Where is my home is against top 10 past defenses at 0.23 passing expected points per drop back, right? No, sorry top 10 ease at 0.04. Sorry just kidding. Oh idiot um Josh allen against top 10 defenses 0.21. It's okay fair. Fair enough That's just what it comes down to for me. That's the reason I liked brady initially before Pumping the brakes a bit and I still like him. Uh is a salary. That's good Be easy to stack as you go evans. Just you know evans are gronk or both see My Numbers have them projected to be Both teams in this game projected to be like very good in terms of efficiency. I think this is going to be very competitive The pace in this game is superb Um, it's uh the team ranked second in pace versus the team ranked fourth in pace based on football outsiders numbers I think the over hits and I think that that leads to brady. Although I have not I've hesitant to actually Bet the over because I'm concerned by the offensive line stuff. So That's the one thing hanging me up with it with brady. But I think the like even with that considered I might still go brady three for the four game slate even above rogers I could see that But to consider him above allen and moholms. I'm not quite there profitable focus has their offensive line matchup chart Um across the the eight teams playing This week they have the second worst expected Not that cause of injuries. That's not yeah, so That's what gets me off of brady to the point that you know, I again I think all four sunday quarterbacks are in play to different degrees I just think that brady is a big step behind the uh, Josh allen and patrick moholms I get the point with brady He's historically been hard to stack That's now easier because of the absences. I love gronk this week. Um, love mike evans but I don't know if brady compared to two guys who can run the ball and throw for five touchdowns as well Match up with just brady. Who's path upside is throwing for you know, five four five touchdowns and really having that chief spills game kind of tank And the good thing too is It should be easy to get to allen because our running backs are lower salary So that means that it's easier to get to you know those guys. Um, okay, let's go to wide receiver. We have cooper cup mike evans tyrie kill And then it drops off. Um How are you viewing receiver on this slate? I love cooper cup this week. Um at that salary. I think that People will get a little bit of cooper cup fatigue potentially He's had seven targets in what three straight games. That's not very good for cooper cup It's very good for most receivers if not like all other receivers But over the past four games with tyler higby back and higby's been a real part of this offense since his return Cops though at a 28 target share with 96 yards per game 96 percent route rate Um, I really don't want to go away from cooper cup. I view him clearly above tyrie and mike evans and stuff on digs I know that that is reflected in the salary, but i'm kind of hoping that People don't play as much cooper cup as they probably should Because he's just been sort of okay, you know in recent weeks The volume the volume has been down. The market share is still extremely high And whenever i made a note here whenever these two teams played week three week three Robert woods is still there The rams had a 71 percent non garbage time pass rates and the bucks were at 70 percent We saw just a ton of passes here on this game was you know 14 seven and halftime like That works for just expecting points here. I think that there's a lot of passing and I think the cooper cup is a very clear priority and That helps a lot with with having camp makers and I have no issues playing camp makers with cooper cup in the same lineup I had the under in that game. Um, I was pretty excited when it's 14 seven and a halftime and then it devolved got bad um So cup he's at seven seven and seven targets to pass three games obviously that's underwhelming That's like you said though not due to market share slippage is due to passing volume slippage because I think they're trying to hide matthew stafford a little bit. Um And like we both think stafford's still good, but do they that's the question and I think we've seen an increased rush rate as a result. However That's not the way you would attack things here versus the bucks So that's why I agree with you where I very much want to buy in on a cooper cup bounce back and be high on him here I have a hard time deciding how I view them compared to evans and hill though just because their salaries are a lot lower and Their teams are less scared of their quarterbacks. I'll phrase it that way So I actually think evans and hill might be a hair higher, but it is a hair Versus like being definitive on those two I won't fight you on that At all because we like like like I said, we have josh allen that we want to prioritize Or at least I want to prioritize and if not it's patrick patrick mohomes for Their their salaries are close enough that it's it's difficult and then at tight end, which we haven't gotten to like But it's it's on these on slates this small. It's hard to talk about one position without the other If travis kehlisied 82 rob grunkowski at 71 doson knocks at 65. I'm not gonna go to the doson knocks really um at 65 But we have kehlisie and gronk who are slate changers knocks can be as well, but Really can he over performed a lot last week on his workload But then we also have tyler higby who can save his salary So again, I'm fine playing tyler higby with cooper cup if that's where it requires But cup with allen and kehlisie it gets a little bit tricky It does and you're getting narrow with who you can really play Um, but you know, maybe that's a lineup where you say, hey, I'm not gonna play devon singletary I'm gonna play jerrick and camakers And that's gonna open up some extra salary and see where it goes from there Maybe, you know, you also don't play kehlisied and gronk and then you play some other stud receivers Like you can still get a little bit creative even with cooper cup in your lineup Yes, if I want to go josh allen with acre singletary and fornette I have a choice. I can either go with cooper cup or I can go with mike evans and tyree kehl Kind of tough to not go with the two guys there. Um, so it's not an aversion to cup. It's an it's a situation where I just like evans and hill a lot and Their offense is a lot and I want to account for that. Yes, but Straight up in a vacuum like if I'm building lineups on this we're gonna say the same thing I just don't want that to lead to not playing cooper cup because it's a lot easier to play mike evans and tyree kehl Yeah, for sure cup is very good. I think he's in a good spot this week. Um, okay Let's talk about uh tight end quick then we'll get to value receivers I think higby actually is pretty in play this week. Uh, he's 54 to dollars He is my arch nemesis because I used him a lot earlier on this year and he refused to do anything with it but In the games he's played with odal since the buy he's at a 19 percent target share Um 10 deep and 13 in the red zones like the high leverage work hasn't been there But a 19 target share for $5,400 in a spot where they may throw more Pretty hard for me to say no to that So I actually think I'll have a decent amount of higby. Um I want to make sure I'm not going too hard because I don't want to deprive myself of grok and kelsey But I do think higby is a pretty good play Especially if it allows me to go with tyreek and evans in the same lineup, which I would like to do So that's kind of where I'm at with higby. What about you? Yeah, I like higby. I've been warming up to him Uh now that it makes sense to unlike, you know, some of the calls we've Why am I here? Is it look you're gonna trash me in my face. What would you say if I weren't here? The same thing, um But yeah, I think I think the higby conversation Is a really relevant one because Again, you're just betting against kelsey and grok having a game where it's like, man I really needed to have those two guys or one, you know, whoever goes off if you think that that's not going to be the case Then higby makes a lot of sense. You could also throw dox dox and nox into either of those conversations where like Those two don't go off, but I had dox and nox and he had 12 fan dual points. I was, you know, that's that's awesome um But I think it's really higby is the number three behind kelsey and grok. So again Skipping over nox after the the the big game you had last week But we're really looking at four viable tight ends on this slate Yeah, we are and I would say Every single one of them is better than the guys on the saturday slates Yes Okay, cool. Um Gronk and 71 is under salary. I'll say that quickly. Okay, let's talk about some lower salary receivers So we'll go odell beckham on down odell checks into 6500 dollars byron pringles 57 van is 55 Manny 55 gade davis is 53 And then we get some stuff, but also is a mckenzie is 4800 dollars tyler johnson who tom brady Shockingly did not have come from the team is five thousand dollars brashad pyramid 51 What is your view of the value of wide receiver? I don't like it that much. There's like a lot of possibilities, but no firm Yeses and that's scary. That's basically Um, we you know, I talked about this during some trends during their regular season is like it's You know, it's great when a value receiver hits, but the probability that these guys hit is low and with even on the Sunday only slate we've got four superstar receivers who could really hurt you So if you are end up if you end up playing two value receivers and just one of the studs and like the majority of your lineups That's like kind of your base It's risky You're really again, I kind of keep saying this but this is how two games late to work You're betting against the big game from cup hill digs and evans, which you know could happen um, you can't play scared like that you have to play those guys, but You know with the with running back looking like it does you don't really have to like Allocate salary on the sunday slate. So I want to minimize the exposure I have to the value receivers So and again, I keep doing this but like it's a possible to talk about one position without the others In the context of slates this small. So I think that I would rather play in a flex Jerick McKinnon over any of the 6,000 or below receivers He's above Pringle I think the question is do I put him above the bills guys and the bills guys is left bag intentionally because they have three guys You could consider so that's that's that's the that's the hardest right for sure But like okay, so let's look at the first three quarters on Saturday against the patriots because that game is a blowout you don't have to do this for a playoff game but Congrats patriots. Uh, anyway, uh in the first three quarters gave davis a snapper with 78 percent uh dig 71 percent Manny 51 is in mackenzie 40. Uh, cold duskley was at 33 percent. We can cross him off If we look at the route rate in the first three quarters digs 86 percent manny 68 percent Davis 59, uh mackenzie 50 or 46 So a couple takeaways there a It seems like davis was out there because he's a very good run blocker some of the times I'm okay with that because it means he'll be on the field war and i'm i'm comfortable with that So to me if i'm ranking those guys, I go gave one gave the babe back uh Mackenzie two Over sanders for it with that strong route, right? I know it might be stupid. I mean Mackenzie 48 like that's yeah, that's why it's like I was I was talking about like hey, you can jam in josh allen with Tyreek and mike evans. That's the cost. It's like the Thanos thing. You know, what did it cost? is a mackenzie I mean, he's your guy you're mega bills fan You're always telling me about isaac mackenzie's red zone workload grinding bills tape. Actually, I was tweeting about this yesterday with chris allen um He was talking about like randall cobs roll when he comes back And he could he competes like isaac mackenzie's i'm looking into it and Isaac mackenzie's snap rate increases like 12 percentage points in the red zone because they like his speed um so You're joking. I know because you're needling me because you know, I'm not a huge bills guy, but uh Kind of hit on a correct point in the process so my thing with the bills receivers and just having so many options is that I honestly would consider if I built a lineup that I loved By having value receivers. I might Again, maybe say I'm playing 10 lineups, which is I think a reasonable number for like a lot of people and you know $2 lineup something like that I might build a lineup with mani In there and then duplicate that and sub in davis Duplicate that sub in mackenzie. I know I'd be wasting some salary, but like You you're gonna have to waste some salary on the unslates the small it's how it works Um, but that way like, you know what that way you're not saying hey the whole lineup hit But I guess wrong and on which bills receiver it was I think that's really viable I think it's viable on a lot of slates like bigger slates even with this team specifically but On a sunday slate even the four game slate I might consider doing that especially in allen stacks Yeah, I'm into it. I I think that's a very good idea for this weekend. Definitely not opposed to that By any means. Okay priority plays for sunday Who are you labeling as such here? allen Okay single Terry acres Okay Like helsey and gronk, but if I had to pick one gronk just because it's more realistic that I can roster him And then honestly the the three stud receivers cup hill and evans So I think there's no, I think they're like good enough where again I I don't really am not interested in too much value or receiver. I think the priorities to me are acres and single terry and then evans and hill that's fair I think that's where I settle in Like I can be talked into that's more realistic for me to I should have just kept it to those guys I mean like I'm finding out and finding my homes. Obviously I'm okay jumping down to brady though. I love kelsey love gronk, but I'm fine jumping down to higby Like cup, but I'm okay settling for those guys. I think that's kind of the way in the year so I think the first guys I put in would be acres single terry evans and hill and Working out from there. I also think bucks defense is kind of a priority a little bit a little bit $4,500 You know Ram's defense also works if you assume that the offensive line struggles with erin donald's facing off against a couple backups That could be uh pretty gross too Any final thoughts for you whether it be for the sunday only slates the four game slates divisional round weekend anything else? Honestly, just trying to get I know that there's going to be some fear of missing out and like if you play lineups and you didn't have doson knocks last week and You know kind of feels feels bad man, but uh t higgins in every lineup. Yeah, but bad man If your goal was to you know place really high in tournaments You got to you got to cut out some of the the Rotational pieces get a tight core and whenever that hits again like I know the The sub in the bills receivers lineups might say I'm kind of wasting some lineups, but if you hit on seven or eight of your guys and that one doesn't hit like That's a great lineup that you want to make sure you get the maximum You know potential out of so in that specific instance. I think it makes sense So basically what I'm getting at is Try not to play everyone really really kind of make your list and go from there. Yeah, I would also say account for uncertainty um Both in the good sense in the negative sense negative sense with like Derek Henry letter for net in the good sense with Aaron Jones to an extent Jared McKinnon account for The range of outcomes not in their Their like results but in their usage. I think that's a key for this week too is knowing Where we could be wrong and stuff like that That is all the time that we have here for today and for the divisional round of the playoffs But do not worry we're back here once again next week to get you set for the conference championships To gain slate to get that and do you get all of our nba nhl ufc pga podcast right to your Podcatcher, I don't know whatever it's called as they get posted Make sure you subscribe to the number five or daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Brandon and people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm at goodwill 13 gd ula 13 And i am at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your divisional round line-ups We'll talk to you once again next week to get you set for the conference championships This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire