 I always want to encourage everybody to try to make an actionable trading list on both sides of the market. Again, even though right now things are looking like they're going to roll over, it doesn't work. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com. Weekend update show, hope everybody is doing well. I'm kind of literally in between soccer games and basketball games. This is literally the only time for the whole weekend that I have like 15, 20 minutes to kind of record the video, kind of share my thoughts and move on to the next event. Right now, usually I get the weekend video done either Friday night, Saturday morning or like early Sunday morning. It's 340 Sunday and I still have another one basketball game left in the day. So let's talk about the tape. The scoreboard is not going to paint a picture of what's going on. Volatility is still definitely there. The most important part of the volatility, the scoreboard kind of doesn't matter. If you look at what the NASDAQ did this week, they literally eeked out. I'm talking about a very eeked out small game throughout the week. And if you notice why we've had a really, really aggressive move down, we've had a dead cat bounce now for the last couple of days here and we've gotten rejected off the 20 day moving average. I'll talk about, I'll kind of show you the significance of that in a second. But keep all this in mind, OK? If you're seeing a lot of names kind of stuck in channels or kind of drifting lower and trying to get their head above water and then getting shoved back down, there's a reason for that. All this volatility is taking place below the 50 day moving average. And that's very, very important to kind of understand which way the wind is blowing, especially going into the new week. The one thing that we have to consider is when you're doing the most basic technical analysis, you have to understand that bullishness, right? The bullish overall directional bias takes place when we're above supply. And that supply now turns into the 50 day moving average. And now we're two weeks below it's nestling in, feeling comfortable below the 50 days. So all this volatility is happening while the stocks are still trying to get up in air and the bearers keep on bringing them back down because they keep on getting rejected into supply. And as many names that did very, very well and continue doing very, very well despite where the overall indexes are, names like Netflix, right, thriving above, way above supply, had a great, great run. A name like AFRM has been a rock star, right? An absolute rock star. A name like UPST is doing incredibly well. Even a name like NET, there was a really big pivot yet on Friday off that 137 level that's gotten rejected several times. So the cloud names, Netflix, there's definitely strength in this market. And if you don't pay attention to macro technical analysis, you say, well, what's wrong? There's nothing wrong until you start looking at the broader names. And a lot of names are going to mirror where the QQQs are. And that's kind of where my focus is. That's kind of the majority of names that I trade. So you'll notice after we lost the 50-day moving average, we kind of went down for like two weeks in a row, found this little short interchangeable, I guess, way of looking at the market for a little bit of a dead cat bounce. And if you look at the last time, we failed twice off this rising 20-day moving average, was right around here on September the 23rd, which we tried to have the same kind of scenario, right? This dead cat bounce into supply. And what happened was next, we had back-to-back days of rejecting off the 20-day moving average, started the next cycle down that we eventually took out the previous lows and had a really, really aggressive move down. Again, the first kind of the most simplistic way of looking at technical analysis is kind of back-testing in a short interval of what happened last time we met that scenario. And you can see what happened last time, right? We got rejected and went lower. And we've had now a good dead cat bounce for the last three days in a row. We traded back into the 20-day supply two days in a row, putting the lower highs off the 20-day supply, just like we did on September the 23rd and the 24th. And the question is, what happens next? Well, again, if you're like me and you're a very visual person and you understand the most basic cases of technical analysis above supply bullish, below supply bearish, well, again, this is a high probability. Okay, well, it happened, we don't know it to be determined, but this is a high probability scenario that we saw right over here. Two days in a row, had this nasty decline. Two days in a row, had a nasty decline. And if you look at most names that are not Netflix, that are not UPST, they're not Letter U, that is not NET, you're gonna run into a lot of names that are kind of mirroring what's going on on the NASDAQ 100. Apple's chart looks exactly like a mirror image of the NASDAQ 100. You look at Amazon, right? Look at a name like Amazon, did exactly the same thing, rejected on the 20-day moving average and rolled over, rejected the 20-day moving average to be determined. Look at Facebook, it never even rallied, right? And it never even got to the 20-day moving average, got rejected off the 10-day moving average. So look at Square, had a really good potential going into Friday to reclaim the 20-day moving average, especially with the strength of Bitcoin, right? Now it's kind of a sort of, kind of sort of like a Bitcoin plane, this was really sold off very, very aggressively, which is obviously setting up, you know, shorter prices. Look at a bunch of semiconductor names, you know, like a MCHP, right? Look at NVIDIA, okay? These are all names that kind of got rejected off the 20-day moving average. So it really is setting up the probability cycle going into this week of what happens next. Now again, you can make the counter argument and this is why I always want to encourage everybody to try to make an actionable trading list on both sides of the market. Again, even though right now things are looking like they're gonna roll over, doesn't mean we will. We can, you know, future, by the time you guys get this video, right now it's only a quarter to four, futures overnight, futures may open at six o'clock. You know, the NASDAQ 100 could be up 200 points, we don't know, but so for that's the case, we have to kind of plan out both sides of the market. So for every bad-looking chart that looks like it's about to roll over, there are some good-looking charts. Microsoft did a great, great job in reclaiming the 50-day moving average despite the QQQ's way below it. I mean, for example, like Google, right? It looks very, very strong as well. Again, doing kind of the same thing that Microsoft is doing, is kind of building a nice little base above the 50-day moving average. So for all the names that look like they're about to roll over, there's still a handful of names that look like they're building a nice little base above their own supply zone, now the question is what happens next? And this is the part of the show where we turn around and say, we don't have to guess, right? There's definitely opportunity, if you did your homework over the weekend, there's definitely opportunity to the short side, there's definitely opportunity to the long side, and now the question is what happens next? And in about two hours from now, we'll get an early look at where the futures are. We'll see exactly how strong they are and we'll see how they progress through the overnight session to put themselves in a position that you have a little bit more clarity at the open. Is the open dictate the whole day's events? Of course not, we see that all the time. We see gap in craps, we see gap in goes, we see dump and run, all these different scenarios, but at least we are prepared. So for every clear name like Microsoft and Google that are building and clear rollover possibilities like a square and Apple and a video and microchip and a long line of names, there's still a lot of names that we could take advantage that are not usually trading with the overall indexes. So for example, look at a name like four, okay? I don't know what this four is, but look at the chart on this four, really aggressive engulfing candle that took down literally about a week and a half worth of buying and now it closed below the Bollinger Band. Again, I'm not really familiar with the name, I don't know anything what they do, but this thing looks like it wants to, it first of all closed below this whole range here. So this thing confirms Friday's channel, it looks like there's a lot of potential back to the downside. A name for example like Draft King, right? As much as every state looks like, you know, they're legalized and gambling and all that stuff, you know, they just couldn't take advantage of the start of the football season, the start of, you know, the start of the major league playoffs. You have college basketball starting, you have the NBA starting. So they're kind of, you know, they're kind of putting, you know, they're putting in the wrong look going into these new seasons. So look at the bottom of the range here, the only reason why it stopped is this linear regression line. So this thing has potential to go lower, but at the same time, again, there's a lot of names that are not correlated with potential NASDAQ 100 moves and look at a name, for example, like a Roku, right? It's not on the NASDAQ 100, but look at what it's kind of doing. It's not the greatest chart in the world, but you can see here at least it didn't sell off with the market for the last couple of days. And now it's kind of a building at base above the 20 day moving average. And you can see the tight little channel. Of course, this is not an in breakout mode, but if you start looking at the options market and you start with seeing, especially last week, you're coming for the 330s, the 335 all short-term expiration, at least you can find the sneaky channel here to kind of get going on a name that never sold off towards a lot of part of the week that a lot of names started rolling over and showing weakness rejected off the 20 day moving average. The one enigma that is kind of sitting in there and I really don't have a strong opinion on Tesla. Tesla gave a couple of really, really strong moves this past week, but I can't possibly be the only one thinking, well, they had the catalyst, they had some good delivery numbers, they had a good shareholders meeting, they talked a bunch of stuff, a lot of jargon was loose, but again, the stock just couldn't put the appreciation yet. So now for Tesla going into this week, I'm literally watching both sides of the channel here. Again, like I can see here, twice it held the 10 day moving average and twice it got rejected off the linear regression line. Something has to give you, right? Right now it's trading basically in a $12 range and the longer it kind of sits in that $12 range, well, something either the upside channel is going to confirm going to take out supply off the linear regression line off the Bollinger man or it's going to lose the 10 day moving average. And if you watch the video for a very long time, you kind of follow this channel, you know how strong I feel about the five day moving average being the shortest term sentiment and the 10 day moving average being kind of the birth of the trade. So Tesla loses the 10 day moving average. Well, you can see where it's next potential move. No technical damage is really going to be on the name until it loses this rising 20. So for now, we're just looking for a potential trade back either to the upside or to the downside. And if it does close below the downside, then obviously you're talking about 35, 40 points to the downside. However, if it starts finally digesting and gains and closing above this Bollinger band and you could see here where you measure potential is, right? Almost to all-time high. So we're kind of set up going into this week. I'm definitely, definitely open-minded. I'd like to see Monday, you know, I don't want to be too aggressive on Monday. I'd like to see in the first half hour and number one, how the futures open. Number two, how the stocks react to the first futures dip. I'd also like to see how the stocks react if we open lower for first potential market rally and then slowly but surely we're going to start accumulating data and making our technical view kind of whole on the next potential confirmation. So guys, have a great night. I have one more basketball game tonight. Guys, I hope everybody's doing well. I hope everybody's having a great, great life, right? Not even a great weekend, just a great life. Smile, be happy. Again, we don't get a mulligan. We only have one life to live. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God's help. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.