 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is the final night of the NBA all-star break, which means we have one last night for NHL to shine all by itself But also our final chance to check in on the NBA futures market before the action gets underway talk about both those things We're gonna bring an awesome swim of number fire get his read on tonight's NHL slate But also the NBA futures market bull to make playoffs NBA finals markets player awards and much more This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain Check him out on Twitter at a swing three Austin was helpful for me in my USC card last weekend we talked about that and show yesterday went very well so Austin a Thank you B. How you doing today? I'm doing great Jim We get to talk about two of my favorite things which is actual NHL games to bet tonight and then speculative NBA discussion for later this year. Those are two of my very favorite things to talk about so I am pumped Reckless speculation has never gone wrong I am fully on board because again, it's not my thing You know, you know, we can just fly on hinge with the NBA See what happens get some takes out there and see how things play out But again, it's an inflection point here You know, we've had this downtime between now and the second half where teams can reset a bit teams get some rest You can get healthy and gear up for this playoff run. So an inflection point in the NBA We'll talk about what that means which teams Austin thinks may be undervalued right now and get you sent for the second half here In just a bit but first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had Ali McCann of Fandall TV on yesterday to break down the Honda Classic for PGA broke down her golf betting process A couple of top 20 bets she likes and much more find that on the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your Podcasts and subscribe there and also check it out over on the Fandall YouTube page The midway point of the NBA season is here And now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sports book because new customers get a no sweat first bet Up to $1,000. That's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win. Just download the Fandall Sports Book app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to point scores and three strain Plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in bonus bets Make every moment more of Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online A real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not withdrawal bonus bets that expired 14 days restrictions apply see full terms at Fandall comm slash sports book gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or was a fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in Connecticut 188-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 109 with it in Kansas in Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm and Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help dot org in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler Net let's start things off here on the NHL side of things awesome We do have a nationally televised game of four tonight We got the Blackhawks and the stars may not be the most high profile matchup But when you look at this game Austin anything standing out to you people want to put this game on TV at 9 30 Eastern tonight So I think market size must have something to do with it because the Blackhawks are flat out terrible now I say that they've won two of their last three including if it's if you haven't seen it yet It's worth your time and near buzzer beater in hockey, which seems impossible By Patrick Kane last night for the Blackhawks, but they're on the second leg move back to back in Dallas here My favorite play is under six in this game, which was sitting around minus 118 when I last checked over on Fandall Sportsbook That's that's kind of my roundabout way of saying I think the Blackhawks have a really hard time Scoring not only the tired legs come into that, but I mentioned They're pretty bad There's one of the fewest expected goals for 60 minutes since January 1st So that is not great Dallas allowing the third fewest expected goals Jake Ottinger the the netminder for the stars one of my favorites these fifth in goals saved above Expectation, which is basically it's kind of like a metric for goalies in hockey like war That shows how valuable they are compared to the average goal tender put in their situation So Ottinger followed up last year's playoff run He's been phenomenal all year and he should get the start with Scott Wedgewood missing practice on Monday And then I think the better the Blackhawks to netminders here as well Jackson Stover instead of Peter Morazzick who went last night Against Vegas, I believe so I like this roundabout way for a low scoring game I imagine Dallas with the superior offense will dictate plenty of the action But I don't typically lay one and a half buck lines. I've laid two all seasons So I think this is a roundabout way for kind of a low scoring 3-1 4-1 Dallas victory Now you mentioned the goals allowed relative expectation. Is that based on like expected goals? Does it use that metric to determine that or are they two independent? numbers I believe they're independent I believe they're independent because the Now they tell you it's part of the calculation because you look at how many Expected goals a team would have given up in that situation So you look at so you look at a team like Dallas third few schools above expectation They put that in there because they say hey if you put a goalie in Dallas and he's an average league goal tender He's probably gonna put up good numbers because of the defense in front of him Goal-saving by expectation looks at compared to their competitors How many shots they're getting peppered with and you think of a guy like Carter Hart and Philadelphia has a high Goals against above average because their defense is terrible. He's actually top 10 in the league and goals saved about it above expectations So he's doing his part. He's just getting peppered because the defense will not stop shots in front of them Yeah, apparently people are on board with you because under six just moved to minus 112 So a little bit of move there was minus 110 now minus 112 So you want under six goals for Blackhawks and stars that is currently minus 112 at Fandall Sportsbook as Mention Austin that might not be the most high-profile game So elsewhere on this two or three game slate for the NHL anything else stand out to you there So it's just kind of odd and you know, it depends on the way the cookie crumbles is if you look at number fires model It only gave out three total multi-star recommendations on yesterday's nine game slate It's giving out three on this three game slate So we're lucky, you know, we've got some action that the model's looking at and I totally agree with both of these sides When you look at Jets Islanders, I think that's the best game of the day I love under five and a half here because it's it's the type of game that I love is someone who looks a lot at goal-tending metrics The the valuation of netminders is odd, you know, that's why I use goal-saved a bug of expectation Here's number one and number two in the league in that category for my money Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders should be the Vez and a trophy winner He's got the highest goal-saved above expectation by 10 He is blowing out anyone else he over 40 and second place is Connor hell you buck from Winnipeg He's at 29 point something around there. So that's how big of a gap Sorokin has over anybody else in the league He's an amazing netminder and then this should be hell you buck after David Riddich got the start on Monday So I think we get two of the best leads best goal tenders That's why this total is so low and these two teams allowing the 12 bottom 12 Fewest goals since January 1st, so they're both keeping the bugs out of the net Typically when you see this five and a half total in the NHL It is an indication because this thing could get popped in an empty net scenario. Yeah in an overtime scenario It goes to overtime So certainly I think when you look at five and a half it is expecting at least two goals or fewer on both sides That's the type of game. I'm profiling there as well Yeah, it's minus 124 under five and a half and that's a pretty decent number in terms of like you are laying a lot of juice for that does that number scare you off or Do you think that it is there for a reason? I think it's there for a reason where I would really start to second-guess things is if the total moved to five a five total in NHL is incredibly where it is you're talking about a situation where I might stay away at five because the Islanders are a Deficient defense as far as if you look at their expected goals allowed metric. They're actually bottom half of the league Sorokin it's just been that good I get vulnerable when the total creeps into that mythical five point zero range But I actually in my memory just off top of my head. I don't recall one this year So that would be a first It's interesting you could tell the sharps have pounded this number all ready to get the juice up to minus 124 It was minus 110 when I checked sportsbook last night. Yeah, so it's minus 124 under five and a half right now for that one So a couple of unders for Austin so far between the Stars Blackhawks and the Jets Islanders We do have one of the game available for tonight. That is Calgary in Arizona. What do you see in that one Austin? So I will be intrigued to see the betting information here because there there's kind of this blind assumption and camaraderie to Lay minus one and a half puck lines against teams like the Blackhawks like the Coyotes like the Ducks and the NHL Relatives to other bottom feeders and other sports They really really struggle like you look at their expected before metrics They're in the 40% the best teams in the league or in the 60s So they're usually getting blown out But I like Arizona plus one and a half here and they're playing well And it's because as somebody who looks at gold sending metrics Arizona's got a couple of stars They arguably have one of the best pairings in the league whether it's Carol Vechmeka who is the normal starter He's been struggling a little bit, but you look at Conor Ingram his backup I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the nod on rest again here because he only has 20 appearances He's already 13th in the league in GSA X and like I said, that is cumulative like war So in a part-time schedule if you're among some of the league's heaviest hitters You're doing some tremendous work and I love backing the Coyotes with the goal here is a three-star Recommendation from number fires model. So that's the best bet of the day according to to number fire And I don't see one minus 140 is very heavy juice at all in a very unique environment in Arizona right there on the college Campus, it's a kind of a loud raucous intimate crowd I like the way this profile as a Calgary's really been struggling on Monday dropped outright to Philadelphia is like a minus 300 something favorite They've actually dropped five of their last seven as well. So they're struggling Arizona's gold tending red hot I don't even think minus 140 is a substantial price to pay for a one-goal margin there Yeah, the plus one and a half right now is minus 144 at fangirls sportsbook on Arizona Against Calgary and you said that's your favorite bet of the three for tonight It is yeah, and that's number fires favorite bet as well Just because especially with the the way the odds are trending in jets Islanders I imagine that is going to be my my largest bet because my expectation is as always the Coyotes get bet against the Coyotes stink Nobody wants to bet on them. And so this number might move toward Calgary as the day begins So it might even get better from here So I'm gonna kind of hold off and look at the activity before I place my wager there I believe mention it was minus 140 before it's now minus 140 for which implied There's been a little bit of money on the that coyotes side there So it could be a situation where you want to dive in now depending on that I've not seen breakdowns of what it may be but it minus 144 I think it if it was minus 140 before that would imply there's been some interest on the coyotes side of things Okay, that is a three game slate for the in NHL for tonight now Let's shift over and talk about some NBA We're gonna talk about playoff futures talk about award futures as well But let's start things off here on the NBA finals side of things right now We've got the Celtics as the favorites at fangirls sports book to win it all there plus 280 Any teams popping for you awesome as being value right now? So I think when it comes to value when not saying that they're going to come out of the Eastern Conference Or when the NBA finals when when I look at three teams in the Eastern Conference There are three now that stand well above the rest with Brooklyn having shipped off their superstars You see Boston up there. You see Milwaukee there without shorter than plus 500 I don't understand why the Philadelphia 76ers lag so far behind in this category. They're plus 1,300 to win it all I think that's sixth in line of all contenders in the easier easy or conference And that we kind of can project who's coming out of the East one of those three teams and this The odds at sport fangirls sportsbook indicate that I almost feel like there's a value discount here because they lost in six games to Miami last year There's a lot of rumors about you know, James Hardin does he do well in the playoffs does Doc Rivers do well in the playoffs But when you look at this team that Philadelphia did Competent playoff team they have four different guys that can drop 30 points and not nobody would be surprised in the entire League John be James Hardin Tyrese Maxine Tobias Harris and they have added elite Surrounding parts when last year they were playing Danny green sporadic minutes They were playing George Neang sporadic minutes while they added D Anthony Melton from Memphis He's been a versatile score eight and up a lot of minutes for them PJ Tucker was a big reason why Philadelphia couldn't get going offensively in that series last year against Miami He flipped from Miami now on the Sixers and then they even scooped up Jalen Daniels at the trade deadline I don't think there are any other title contenders Maybe the Sun's maybe the Clippers that can boast four guys that can have explosive scoring outings like that plus we saw You know defensive ratings is a big deal when it comes to if you're gonna make the NBA finals or not Last year was on number one golden number one Boston number two Golden State Philadelphia sixth in that category and they're right there with Boston with Memphis with Milwaukee all these other teams you see at the top of the List I think Philadelphia's odds are way too long for the conference. They're in and I absolutely wouldn't be surprised What so ever if they came out of the East this year Would you have interest in the Sixers in the to win the East then as well? Or is it primarily that the the fear of the West is gonna drive that number up? If we look at the the Eastern Conference odds for 76ers right now plus 650 So very in line with their with their finals odds Do you think plus 650 is a better number than 13 to 1 or would you rather go for the whole kit and caboodle? so with so with I Would go for the whole kit and caboodle I feel like whoever comes out of the East is gonna have a significant advantage in that defensive category that I was talking about Over whoever comes out of the West you'll get Denver. They're barely a top-half team There are analytical film breakdowns that say a lot of Memphis and their defensive rating in the regular season Is their ability to funnel things to Jared Jackson? But there are a lot of people I trust in the film department who say that John Morant is a significant defensive liability for Memphis So I'm kind of I feel kind of washy about them defensively in the playoffs and then Jim You know this I'm a Clippers fan and I'm saying this I don't think the Clippers You know, we haven't really seen much out of the Suns I would heavily favor any of these three teams coming out of the East But yeah plus 650 is far too distant as well given Philadelphia probably gonna be the three seed I don't understand why Philadelphia is getting a tax for a potential series with Milwaukee That will be very close and competitive, but the Bucks aren't as much I think maybe that's because we've seen Janice break through and do it and so that that's Calculated and factored into the outright odds, but I feel great about Philadelphia relative to their odds Okay, so Philadelphia 13 to 1 is Austin's preferred market there for the aim to win the NBA finals Also some value of plus 650 to win the Eastern Conference But it sounds like he prefers the finals bet instead other stuff We have over a fan dual sportsbook right now You can bet on a team to make or miss a playoffs Yes, and no markets being offered for or I guess actually yeah, they're yes and no markets offered for Most teams so when you look at those Austin, where are you seeing value there? So I see tea I thought I saw value yesterday I'm like I could not believe these odds on a team to make it and I also couldn't believe these odds for a team to Not blow it and not make it. So let's start with the positive news, right? We want to be positive people around here I think the Toronto Raptors are a phenomenal bet to make it at plus 184 But you look at this gaggle of teams at the bottom of the Eastern Conference now Which everyone would acknowledge is the weaker bottom half of the conference I mean you have the defending champion warriors in the Out in the eight seed right now in the West. So that's how deep that conference is but I look at Toronto They were a playoff team last year and they're surrounded by Atlanta Washington Chicago all of these teams that respected NBA voices are suggesting blow it up trade your stars You're not going anywhere. Your team's not worth anything I feel like Toronto significantly better than those guys because we know what these guys can do in a playoff setting They pushed the aforementioned six series last year so and all their key pieces back in place See a Pascal see a Fred Van Lee Scotty Barnes og in a nobie It's been this weird year where this trade chatter is hovered over per Toronto But they ended up shipping zero key pieces out and they got Jacob Pertle Which is exactly what they needed from San Antonio guy that could play the center Pascal see outcomes not a traditional center They were bottom five in defensive rebounding last year. It's been a little better this year They've been about mid-pack in defensive rebounding, but it's never been a strength Pertle helps them with that He helps them with their interior size. They're only four and a half games out of the six seed I would not be surprised at all if the Raptors went on a run push toward the six seed to Invoid the play-in entirely as I mentioned Brooklyn is an entirely different team now with without really a key engine Or a leading scorer. You've got the Knicks in here. You've got the heat in here I think a team like Toronto that's been there done that now knows that they're a complete unit for the rest of the Year can push toward and I although almost certainly be in the play-in as well Yeah Toronto as you mentioned a plus 184 to make the playoffs Do you think that's like a lingering number from the trade deadline where people assume they might chip out someone important and it hasn't adjusted yet? Or what's your read on that market? Like why is it's like? Why are you? Differing from the market so much do you think well? I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that they have not played very well Recently but to as point of my evidence it this whole season. They've struggled That's why a lot of people figured the Raptors who are now the ten seed would ship people out They just start the rebuild because it wasn't working They weren't in a position to realize their ceiling but the way I look at this team They're ninth in net rating since the trade deadline So all of a sudden they've rebounded and that's it in the entire NBA not just the East So they now they've become this top four or five team in the conference and they've rebounded now I think with all these pieces in place by the way. Oh Gianna. Noby hasn't been playing. He's at a risk injury key perimeter defender I mean all these guys you're talking about with Toronto guys We're willing to give a five six first round picks as many as they could to get one of them They are valuable pieces especially on playoff setting and the thing I love about the Raptors is that they just play their guys They play like seven or eight guys play 30 plus minutes And they there is some wear and tear with that ultimately makes them have a cap ceiling when they get into the dance But as far as advancing into a seven or eight seed through the play-in tournament This is a team that's been there done that whereas, you know, Washington don't even know if their top stars get a longer play Very well Atlanta You know a lot of mid defense mid metrics about how they're middle of the pack in rating if middle pack offensive rating defensive rating I think Toronto has special ability and we've seen that in the past few years and this core A lot of it was part of that title team back in 2019 as well Okay, so Austin likes the Raptors at plus 184 to make the playoffs. He said that was the good the positive the fun The fuzzy outlook. What's the less fuzzy one you're seeing valuing right now So I don't think this is over 50% likely to happen So it's more of a value play, but I'm looking in the Western Conference I kind of look at the Sacramento Kings to not make it and Kings fans everywhere I've just grown some of them just turned off your podcast They've made the NBA playoffs in 17 years right now Their position is the three seed in the West so if they didn't make it would be an epic collapse And those fans would be tortured even further So I feel bad for doing this and my largest preseason wager this year by the way Sacramento Kings over 33 and a half wins So I've been a buyer on this team from ground level, right? But I have to also acknowledge the clear ceiling so much of the NBA regular season is who's trying and who is resting DeMontis Savonis is only this two games for Sacramento all year. DeRon Foss is miss five This is a team that is valuing the regular season making a full push the entire year That is why they have a three seed But you look to the ninth worst defensive rating in the NBA Okay, most of those teams are in the lottery in the sweepstakes for Victor when Ben Yama more so than the playoffs And they don't really have a rim protector playing Savonis at the five And this is a I see extraordinary value in this number when I would comfortably project them for the play-in tournament When you look at what is around them Denver and Memphis clearly ahead Phoenix just added Kevin Durant The Los Angeles Clippers just added all their new pieces Dallas added Kyrie Irving The Pels will get Zion back and then you have the Warriors the Lakers These are a lot of teams that I'm naming here that are going to serves They're going to peak in this 2025 game window after the trade deadline the Kings are what they are now all their guys have been playing all their games They have a defensive ceiling and to me I could see absolute heartbreak for this team in in the play-in tournament If they had to play a tenth seed Warriors or a tenth seed Lakers and ended up falling into the eighth game And then you know, who knows what happens there with a Dallas with a New Orleans, Minnesota is working out there So plus 245 seems like crazy to me considering I would almost project this team for the play-in tournament at this point as these guys start to make this second half run the contending teams So basically your thought process is they'll wind up the seven of the eight seed and then They have the advantage in the play-in tournament with needing just you know a win to get in but your thought process is They're vulnerable in that spot. Is that am I interpreting that correctly? Right, so you look at these odds. These are more so in lines with in line with what you see I almost think the sportsbook is telling you something without telling you something here These are in line with what you see right now with six seeded nicks in the Eastern Conference And it's all about who's trailing them and that's why I Jim you're exactly right I do not think they'll miss the play-in tournament entirely obviously But they only have a four and a half game cushion a ninth in the West right now So they're not sitting comfy into that three-seat the West has been a cluttered mess all year If you go on a four game losing streak it's slide from fourth in the standings to 10 So the Kings I feel like have been playing at their absolute Ceiling with all of their guys healthy and it's just their competition around them is going to get better And you see some of these Western Conference schedules. These guys are all playing each other coming in You know, I know specifically with the Clippers they've got Memphis Denver the Lakers right out of the chute and It just does not get easy in this conference And I think the Kings are really gonna struggle defensively against most of these high-level teams Looking at the odds to be in the play-in game The Kings are plus 125. So implied odds there hovering, you know They're decently high at plus 125. Obviously, they're favored to not be in there But plus 125 means the odds they want of the play-in pretty high And like you said, it's gonna be a tough play-in in that conference So I think that that thought process does make sense So Austin's favorite bet here is the Kings at plus 245 to not make it very rude An apologies to all Kings fans out there But raining on their parade and what has been a very fun year, but I get it values value So you got to do what you got to do. Okay. What about player awards? We've got Some pretty heavily favored guys in these markets, which makes sense We've already played a good chunk of the season already, but that could mean Maybe there's value in them if they're not short enough, you know There could be a situation where a guy's favorite but may not be short enough or there could be a longer shot Who could benefit from chaos at the top? So when you look at these markets Austin the player awards markets, what do you see in there? So I would give the advice to anyone before I give my favorite pick out is that if you look at these markets One substantial injury can vastly change things Even if you look at like a rookie of the year market Palo Ben caro is like minus 1000 on Fandals sports book if Ben caro got hurt in one of the first games Out of the break and ended up missing the rest of the season is Orlando kind of went into the tank Benedict math or an absolutely has a shot So that that is the type of thought process you should take with some of these heavy favorites right now is if I'm assuming an injury to The heavy favorite right now who would most likely be in line to pick to pick that up And I'm not even assuming injury in one of my favorite ones to win I will save the MVP buck for my Twitter timeline. I've got strong thoughts on that But the reality is I think at this point yokich is a deserving favorite given what the speculation what the rumors are Is going to happen. It's not what I think should happen, but it is what it is, right? But we're talking actually betting one. I'm looking at the most improved player award, Jim And I think the Jalen Brunson here at plus 350 is insane because I see this as an E3 horse race Between J. Gilger Sally Jander, Lori Markin and now Jalen Brunson by the way Brunson even ahead of a fourth place Tyree Halliburton there. He was the one that wasn't at All-Star Weekend, right? There is that sentiment that Brunson got snubbed a little bit and you look at the co-favorites for this award right now SGA, Lori Markin and play for the Thunder for the Jazz 10th and 11th Seeds in the West These were teams projected to be some of the worst in the NBA this year And like I talked about with the the Kings playing at their ceiling these guys have been playing at their ceiling They've had all their guys healthy They've taken advantage of some of these problems with contenders But I expect them to fade here down the stretch whereas Jalen Brunson and the Knicks are minus 400 to make the playoffs this year They are expected to be in the dance and Jalen Brunson is probably going to be a sizable part of it He's averaging 29.3 points per game since January. He's a 30 point per game score since January Like that is one of the best scores in the entire NBA. It's in a huge media market Which absolutely does impact these awards as well. I think they look they gave SGA They gave Lauer the all-star nod I would not be surprised if these odds at least I think you'll get great closing line value on this that Jalen Brunson will shorten Into the plus 200 or shorter category as the season progresses because the Knicks are gonna remain relevant Just because of their conference and Jalen Brunson's gonna be the guy scoring a lot of points But no one ever talked about the Knicks. So how he's gonna get buzz, you know, just under the radar team here That's right as a New York second team to Brooklyn, right? Yeah, I definitely think if you went on the streets in in Coney Island, you could get someone to name a few Brooklyn Nets Absolutely Brunson plus 350 right now to win most improved player behind SGA as mentioned in Markinon So plus 350 is where Austin is looking there in large part because of the thought process of the Knicks can be relevant Other teams may fade and that's what puts him on Brunson there Well, that's all we got we covered the futures mark we covered tonight's NHL slay We covered pretty much everything so Austin. I appreciate the time. Thanks for swinging by for today. Good luck in the NHL tonight And I'm excited of NBA back tomorrow as well Yeah, absolutely where we'll kick back in the swing of things. I got a little UFC to swing You know me. I've always got something that I'm cooking and working on. I will slack you for UFC stuff So don't you worry about that. I will I will be in your DMs very soon Try to get some of that sweet sweet sauce for this weekend check out Austin on Twitter at a swing three fine His work over at number fire calm. I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis JMS a NNES. We are back tomorrow to break down the NBA's return Tom Vecchio will be here to break down that and get his favorite bets across fan dual sportsbook for Thursday night This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network