 good evening. We are hopefully you can all hear. Yes, it's been recorded, Andreas. Good evening to you. So good evening as people are coming in. We are due to get started in just two minutes. I can't start any earlier than that. So just literally as the FOMC announcement comes out here this evening. And so I'll be back in just one minute. Okay, good evening again. So very good evening to you all. Hopefully you're hearing me okay. It sounds like the sound is all working fine. So we've just got just under a minute or so before we can get officially started here this evening. If you do want to ask any questions here this evening, hi Sergei. Then by all means you can type them into the webinar chat box. There is also a Q&A box as well. So there's two facilities to ask questions or anything, but probably just the webinar chat box would be best. And so yeah, probably best to go with that one. So we'll just be getting started in just a moment there to say, just making sure I can see there's still people coming in. So I'm still waiting at the moment. Is this the webinar chat? Yes, it is. Yep. So we are about to get started. You should be able to see the screen. It's called Beyond the Beaton Path, an entry and an exit strategy. So you should be able to see that screen. Good. You can see the screen and that's yeah, perfect. Okay. Now if yes, there you go. So you are seeing the screen. So that's good. So we are about to get started. I'm literally just there's so many people coming in. I'm just giving it another minute before we do in fact to get started here. And then we can crack on with the session here. So just as I'm seeing people coming in, I'm just making sure that they're all here with me, which I'm no doubt they can. I've just been asked, can we have your name? Yeah, it's Charlie Burton. This is me. I am presenting this strategy tonight. So as it says, Beyond the Beaton Path, an entry and an exit strategy by Charlie Burton. Yes. Okay. So you just made me laugh then. So yeah, there's no one else presenting. It is me. So yeah, exactly Jose. Yeah. Right. Okay. I think on that note, Johann's saying he's here so we can start, right? Thank you. Good. Okay. Well, let's get started. There's plenty of us here tonight. It was amazing. The amount of entrance we had 700 people registered for tonight's session. So a huge number of people signed registered for tonight. Right. Now if you everyone at the moment, you're all sending just so you know, I can see your messages, but no one else can. If you want others to see your comments, then just change the there's a drop down box before you write a post, you should be able to change that drop down box to everyone. It will default to hosts and panelists. If you change it to everyone, then others can see your can see your message as well. So it's up to you. But it defaults to hosts and panelists. But if people are thinking I can't see all these comments, it's because everybody at the moment is sending posts to hosts and panelists, which means only I can see them. Okay. Without further ado, then let's get started. Welcome to the... Oh, okay. It's blocked. Is it? Right. Okay, won't let you. Right. It must be their settings. I'm using TickMills Zoom software here tonight. So they must have that blocked. Fair enough. Okay. Let's get started. Welcome to the beaten path and entry and an exit strategy. I shall endeavour to go through this evening's presentation as swiftly as I can for you. I appreciate they say that the average person can only take in about 20 minutes worth of information. So, well, I don't suppose I'll be able to do it that quickly, but we will try and get all wrapped up within the hour. Okay. So other than that, let's get into this presentation. So risk disclaimer, first of all, the material provided for is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author and not to the author's employer, organisation, committee or any other group or individual or company. High risk warning. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with TickMills UK Limited and TickMills Europe Limited, respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take risks of losing your money. There you go. I got my way through the risk disclaimers quite quickly there. Right. Okay. So the overview for tonight's presentation, for those of you who don't know who I am, my name is Charlie Burton. I've been trading 26 years and I've been coaching traders for about 18 years. I'm relatively well known here in the UK as a trader. I was featured on a BBC documentary called Traders Millions by the Minute several years ago where they were filming various traders all around the UK and I was one of those successful traders or one of the few successful traders, should I say, who was on that programme. I've also featured in the likes of The Financial Times, The Telegraph, various trader magazines and attended many, many shows where I've live traded over the years. I'm a five times undefeated live trade-off winner at the London Forex show as well. So I've got a reasonable pedigree behind me in that I've built up a bit of experience now over the years. Now, it doesn't matter how long you have been trading. When it comes to the markets, we're always learning, myself included. Doesn't matter how long you've been trading, we're always a student of the market as we say. So the market is always going to be testing you in so many different ways. And that's all part and parcel of our continued learning when it comes to trading. Okay, so let's go into this particular presentation subject. The psychology behind the strategy. This is what we're going to be covering off over this next 30 minutes or more. We're going to be talking about using this particular entry and exit itself, using what I'm going to show you as an entry and an exit tool, the probabilities of its outcome, the bank tested results as well. And I've put that in inverted commas there. I've put an exclamation mark there because there's a great quote that says you can back test up until today, but you're still going to get tomorrow. And I think that's really important. Backtesting. Some people think backtesting is like the holy grail of trading. And I think that that quote is really important. It just adds a sense of reality to that backtesting is a really useful exercise. But it's not the holy grail. You can back test something and then start forward trading it and it just doesn't work for you. What I'm showing you here today, I have been using for many years, probably around about the last 10 years in in the format that I'm going to be showing you it today. I've been using it longer than 10 years before that. But always keep that at the back of your mind. You can back test up until today, but you're still going to get tomorrow. Okay. We're going to talk about integration with your personal trading as well, or you are certainly going to have that option to be able to integrate this with your trading. This presentation isn't about saying to you, look, here's a strategy. Just go off and trade it. What I like people to do is to take a piece of information and then see where they can integrate it with their own with their own style of trading or use parts of it or it might give them an idea even that they they do something entirely different on the back of some of the ideas that we go through here this evening. So it's not about, oh, you just go off and just do what I'm going to be showing you here this evening. Do tweak it, do test it yourself because people will find all sorts of different ways to use this information. So the early story is that many years ago, I was looking for a trading stop strategy. So I would say this was during the in the 2000s, probably 2007, 2008, for my intraday trading, I wanted to on some trades, give them that that scope to run. And so I was looking for and testing and trialing different ways of trade just having a trailing stop. So I use things like moving averages and a close below a given moving average, like an eight period moving average and things like that. They weren't quite doing it. And so what I ended up coming up with was using a close below the average lowest price of the last five day or the last five bars. So that would be my exit if I was trying to run a trade. So a close below the average of the lowest price of the last five bars. So if you've got the lowest price of the last five bars, I just bring a pen up here. So if we got five bars, it's going to take the average of those of the lows of each of those last five bars, and it's going to plot that. OK, so it's giving me a bit of room. So let's say that average therefore comes, let's say here. So it's going to give give me a bit of room to for my trade to still potentially still meander its way higher. But if it does come down that bit further, then I'll just get the trailing stopped out using that. OK, so that's what I came up with, and that's what we're going to be going into right now. And of course, the opposite of this is the case for short trades. So if I'm in a short, it's going to take the average of the last five highest price points. So there's the high of that bar, the high of that bar and so on and so forth. And that's going to plot an average of that, which may be, let's say here. And if price meanders back up to that, then then that would end up trailing stopping me out. So that's just some of the. The history behind how this came along. And when it comes to strategies, I'm sure some of you have highly experienced traders that I've never really sat down to and just thought I want to devise a strategy today. That's never been the way that strategies come along. They've always just come from pure observation a lot of the time, just from screen time being in front of the screens and noticing little nuances that go on in the chart. This one came about for me looking for a trailing stop strategy. And then as I was then using that over the years, I'm going to show it to you on some charts in a second. Then you start to notice other things. And that's how what I'm going to show you here tonight materialized. So this tells me and gives me a visual of the short term, a short term switch in price momentum. That's all it is because we're looking at the lowest average price of the last five bars or the lowest or the highest average price of the last five bars if it's a short. It's as simple as that. Okay, so let's go and have a look at this on a chart. Okay, so I've now got and for the purposes of this exercise here this evening. Whoa, there's a lot of questions coming through. Sorry. Okay, loads and loads of questions. Sergey, you're just firing questions at me. This is a presentation. I'll come to your questions if I can later on, but there are completely nothing to do with this presentation. But I will try and answer your questions for you this evening, nevertheless. So I've put up for throughout this presentation. This is all going to be using, I think, monthly charts here. I'm just thinking of the slides that I've got that I'm showing here tonight. So we're looking at monthly time frames. That doesn't mean to say that you have to use it on monthlies. I'm just telling you that is the timeframe of the charts that I've that I'm using here for the examples. I don't need that. It's just a MACD down the bottom. I don't actually need that for the purposes of tonight. So soon, you know. So those what's plotting these the average price of the last five bars I'm using candlesticks here. That's what this is. So the lower line is the average price of the the average lowest price of the last five bars. And the upper line is the average highest price of the last five bars. So if I was getting into a long position, let's say back here, so it doesn't matter this even if this was a five minute chart, like back in the day when I was doing a lot more day trading, then if I'd got into the trade somewhere down here, and it's starting to run for me, then I would be looking at this point here because this is where prices close back because prices coming up here is close back below the average highest price. In fact, is on what I would have used traditionally here. Well, there's two that I would use. I can use that if I want more aggressive exit. So a close below the average highest price. If I want to wait and see if I can give the trade and trade the run the trade even longer, then I would look for a close below the low the average lowest price, which doesn't actually happen until way over here. So much higher up. So it gives me the opportunity to run trades that little bit more. That just comes down to personal choice. And this is all I'm showing you at the moment is how or the way that I used to use these. I don't use them like this anymore. It's not how I trade anymore. I just tend to trade with targets, but that's how these were born. And I think I've got now if you want to plot these onto your chart, then essentially they are two moving averages. So a five period moving average. Okay. And the main thing with this is you're setting it to the low price. When you put a moving average on your chart normally, it will default to the close. So what you'd want to do is put one moving average on a five period, change the the source or from the close to the low and then click on OK. And then depend on what your chart software is. And then you would then go and put another five period moving average on and change this to the high. And that is what would then give you these two lines on your chart. Okay. I call them my bands. So you'll hear me using those words here this evening when I'm talking about bands, but that's what they essentially are. It's just two moving averages and they are giving me the average highest price of the last five bars and the average lowest price of the last five bars. So coming back to this chart there, like I've already said, we've got two arrows here. If I was trading this on the long side, then historically, and I was looking for an exit technique, then that would be an exit. And then the other one would be over here when it closed below the lower band. Okay. Now, like I've said, by using these, as I was using them more and more, you start to notice other other things, other ways of using them. And that's a natural progression that goes on. Let's just turn that pen off. If anyone's writing any questions by the way, I'm not really looking at questions whilst I'm going along. So you're just going to have to bear with me because otherwise I'll disrupt my own flow. So by all means put questions down, I'll have to come back to them or rewrite them once I do start going through the questions. Okay, so it was always used as an exit technique. And that's how I wanted to use it just as, you know, for as a trading exit technique. But gradually, I noticed, like I've said, other ways of using it, such as for entries as well. And tonight, we're going to explore a simple probability exercise. And this all started around about probably just 10 years ago. So probably around about 2013 off the top of my head was when I started to realize that there was other information that accompanies these bands. So another information is this, one's price closes back inside those bands. After a preview, after previously closing outside of them, there's a 60% likelihood that price will then rotate to the opposite band. Okay, so once price closes back inside the bands, after previously closing outside of them, there's a 60% likelihood that price will then go to the opposite band. So if I go back to that chart there. So what am I talking about here? So let's take this example down here. So price here has closed below the lower band here, the lower average price of the last five bars. So the like, I could just call in the band. The following bar, it's closed back within. So if it closes back within the band, then there's a 60% plus probability that price will work its way to the opposite band. Okay, so this is like I've said, this is a monthly chart. So if I have that information, whereby there's a 60% probability once price has closed within the bands, that it will then go to the opposite band, it won't go straight there, this is a monthly chart. But I can use that information if I'm then trading actually off of a daily chart. And then I get on my just through my other analysis, by signals coming in on the daily chart. Well, I can then can use that in conjunction with this knowledge that there's a 60% probability that we're going to the price can come up to here, at least to the upper band. Well, that's useful information for me. Because I'm now going to be trading something off of a daily chart, it's off the smaller timeframe. But knowing that price may have that potential to run to that upper band on the monthly timeframe. So combining timeframes is really quite useful. And that's what I've been using over the years. So over the last 10 years, having that information, now I tested all this years ago, 10 years ago. And because I'd noticed quite often, not always, of course, it's 60% of the time, it's not 100% of the time. But quite often 60% or so of the time when price closes back inside the bands like in this example here, we've talked about that it will then work its way to the lower band. Okay, so 60% of the time. So I tested it and that's what those were the odds that came out. So I've known this for years, and it's been quite useful for me when I'm combining timeframe analysis. And if I want to be long something, and it just so happens that we've in like in this example down the bottom, down here. Alright, I want to be long anyway on the daily charts. Oh, and there's a good probability that price is going to have a run up to the upper band on the monthly here, that might be quite a good run. It doesn't look like a lot here on this screenshot, but this is a monthly timeframe. So can be quite useful. Likewise, when price closes inside the bands here can be quite useful information if it's going to come down to the lower band. So what I then decided to do just a few weeks ago is to test this in my trading room. So let's just bring this all the way back down. So in my trading room, I have a live online trading room with a community of traders. And so and we're always doing all sorts in there. I trade in there. I'm I should be in there tonight. I apologize. It's FOMC and we shouldn't have done this webinar on during the middle of FOMC here tonight, but never mind. And my my traders are in that trading room as we speak. Now, as an exercise, I said, well, let's go back over and retest this information. So I sat in my trading room, and we got hold of the charts, and we worked our way back. So let me just go back first of all. So actually, no, what I'll do, I'll leave it there. And actually, if I bring my charts up, where are they? Okay, so we had an exercise where I was just scrolling back the charts and manually doing this exercise, there's no substitute for manually doing this, I can always go on and once you've done a manual test is then start to automate it if you like doing that sort of thing. But there's nothing quite like manually go back going back and look at the charts. And so we were just logging all of the times historically, when price has closed back inside the bands, having been outside of them. So this one was outside once it's closed back inside. Okay, did it get to the opposite band? Yes, it did. Right, that gets a tick in the box. And so that's how we started doing this just literally just a box ticking exercise. So and while I was sat there, this was what I was writing down. So we literally were just running through all these charts and I literally logged for the as a initial exercise, which ones worked, which ones didn't over this was on the monthly chart here, these figures up here, and 68% of the time, when price closed back inside those bands, it actually went to the opposite band. And that was over 36 years worth of data went but data went back to 1986. Then I decided to do it on the weekly time frames as well to see what it looked like on the weeklies, we only went needed to go back to 2010 because we had a lot of data over that. And that gave us 61%. So I always like to go air on the side of caution, and just say, Okay, let's say that was 60% there. So that gives us an initial piece of information in relation to those charts to say, Right, yes, 60% at the time, also price once it closed inside the bands, it will go to the other the other band. Now, that by itself is really useful information. I've known this for the last 10 years, but it was good to bring those figures up to date and just to do it as a box ticking exercise. So I can use that on a high timeframe, like I'm showing here so far, I can show that on a monthly chart. And then say, Okay, if we get a close inside the bands on the monthly chart, and it might well be setting up on the euro dollar this very month, I'll show you in a short while on that. If we were to get a close inside the bands on the monthly timeframe, this, there's a 60% or so just a bit over 60% likelihood that price will work its way to the opposite band. In fact, why don't I just show you right now. So you can see at the moment, the this is the the monthly chart of the euro dollar right now, and it's just we've still got until Monday until this closes, but it's right on the brink of closing inside the bands here. So if that's the case, then, then it gives us we know that there's a 60% or so likelihood we come down to the opposite band. Now, for those of you who are clever, are going to see, well, we've closed down here, and it went higher. So they didn't actually come to the opposite band. That was that's happened twice this year, in fact. But like with all entities, this is 60% of the time, not 100% of the time. In fact, it just did it back almost well back to back instances where it didn't actually work. And that's just as important for me to show you instances that don't work because this is I keep repeating myself, but it's important, a 60% probability, it's not 100%. So but it may well be that the euro closes back inside the bands this given month of July. So we know that there's about still a 60% probability we come down to the lower band. So that's useful information. Oh, actually, let's go back to the chart. Actually, just let's go back to the chart. So if that was to happen, then I what I would then be doing is I'd be coming down to my daily chart, and then looking for short setups, if we start breaking down a bit on the euro dollar, then I know that we've got those statistics on the higher timeframes. And then I would then be looking for short strategy or strategies that I use to get myself short on a smaller timeframe such as the daily chart here, but run the trade down to that lower band, which is on the monthly, which is going to be somewhere down here in the 107. Okay, so it gives me a target to work towards and an overall guidance, a probability of where that market may go. We'll come back to the charts in a bit. I've already shown how to set up the bands, Vincent. You'll have to rewatch the presentation if you want to learn that again, because I've already gone through that. It can now be used in conjunction with your own directional analysis techniques. So whatever your own analysis techniques are, if you just periodically put those bands on, even if you only put them on something like a monthly chart, then they may be quite useful for you to say, okay, price is closed inside the bands. There's a 60% or more probability of price closing in. So you can use that in conjunction with your other analysis, like I've just said and then combine it with strategies you might be using entry strategies on the daily charts. Okay, knowing that there's a 60% probability of something happening does give you a given edge, but there's still some how others here. That's just one thing. So I'm, and this is how I use it because I'm a manual trader at heart. I don't like mechanical trading myself. So I wouldn't just say, oh, right, that's happened and then just blindly trade that that's mechanical trading, although I am going to show you a mechanical way of trading it here this evening, but my preference because I've been trading 20 odd years and I like, I like to feel that I have a bit more input in my trades, then I like taking that, that data off of the monthly, knowing that there's a 60% probability and then going down to the daily charts. If I get a setup on the daily chart, then I can then combine it and then trade it. So that's how I prefer to how I personally do it. And it gives me a bit of an edge then. Now, in its current form, I've said here, you cannot trade this mechanically. Okay, you cannot trade this mechanically in its current form. Let me give you an example. So let's go to the chart again. Let's go to, oh yeah, back to the monthly charts here. Just trying to just finding an example here. So let's say, let's find, I want to find a really nice sort of simple example. So bear with me. Okay, right. Let's take this one down here off the lows. Okay, so at this point down here, price previously was on the outside of the bands. So now once it's gone on the outside of the bands, we're looking for price to close back inside the bands. So price closed inside the bands here. And we can see that it did indeed get to the opposite band. But if I was to just buy at that point, I'd have to place a stop at the low and then exit when price got to the band there, you can see there's a problem with this risk to reward. The risk to reward is skewed. It's risking more. We can see that just visually here. We can see that it's risking. If the stop loss is down at the low, and this is the entry, and this is the target, then the risk to reward is skewed. That's no good. So if you try to mechanically trade it as it in its current form like that, then that wouldn't be any good. I'm trading it when I'm combining it with my other trading off of the smaller timeframes. And so therefore I can still get good risk to wars. So but if you wanted to mechanically trade it, you can't just trade it every time that price just closes inside a band and then run it to the opposite band. That's just giving us the information that that overall should happen. But the risk to reward just wouldn't be good enough. Okay. So could we make it better? Could we skew that risk to reward? So let me bring think. Yeah, okay. So now I've got this screenshot here of an instance whereby price has closed inside the bands. We take this bar here. So we've closed inside the bands here and rather than just buying it at the point when it closes inside the bands, only buying it if we get a retest of the lower band. Okay. So after price is closed inside the bands, only buying it if we get a retest of the lower band. That's if you're wanting to mechanically trade this. So I've said I've actually started going through the probabilities of this very thing. I'm going to show you that. So only buying if it if it retest the lower band, if it's a long, if it's a short, then only buying it if it retest the upper band. Then you place your stop at the low and then have that target at the opposite band and then the risk to reward is much, much better. You can just see it visually that this is your risk and this is your reward much, much better. Okay. Now, next, well, what if we didn't just target the upper band? What if we what if we targeted something else as well? So yes, we could target just that upper band. But what about the prior highs over here? These prior highs here? Could we target that? Could we use my original exit strategy for the bands? Oh, well, wait, well, if price starts trending, once price then closes back inside the bands here using that as an exit and so on and so forth. So that's what I've been doing with my traders. We've been testing a number of these scenarios just to see whether which, well, which scenarios are most profitable, which one, you know, just seeing if they're all profitable and which ones are most profitable or not, of course. So bear with me a second. And we are at I'm just checking the time here. Okay. So sorry, there's lots of going on tonight because of FOMC I'm getting messages coming through. So I do apologize on that. It's not the best of timings of doing tonight's webinar during the middle of FOMC. So those are some different instances where we could do that. So now what we did went back to pen and paper and looked at only taking retests of the lower or the upper bands. That still gave a 50% success rate, but now we're the better risk to reward. So if we do use that information and enter a trade down here, if we do, you take that information and enter a trade down here, then using, well, we tested the upper band, prior highs up here, the last swing high, which is up here, a close inside the bands over here as well. So that's what we tested. And I think I've just put some lines on the chart. There we go. Those are the levels. And then having taken those levels, we came up with spreadsheet. So we did actually put in spreadsheet. We can't just have everything in a, we can't just have everything in a, just written down like that. So we, when I'm first just looking at something and we're going through an exercise quick, then I'm just doing a box ticking exercise saying, did it work? Did it work? Did it work? Did it get to the opposite band? When we started doing this exercise, then of course we're looking at various exits, exits at the prior high or low, exits at the opposite bands, an exit on a close back inside the bands, or an exit on a close below the lower band. So if the bands are going up like this, we've also, yes, we can have an exit when price closes back inside the bands, but also what about if another exit, which is a close below the lower band? So there was four options there. The last one of those four is the one that tries to hold on to the trade the most. The one where we just exit on a touch of the opposite band has the highest win rate out of them because it's got the lowest target, it's got the lowest distance to travel to get to its target, but actually that one was the least profitable. It was profitable though, and it's still nicely profitable, but that was the least profitable. This one was the most profitable. And then the other two were slightly lower than this one, but more than than this one. Okay, so and this was all tested on a monthly chart. So if I bring back the charts, all tested on a monthly chart. Okay, so we've now got a load of data there to say, one, we know the probabilities of just when price closes inside the bands, having been outside of them, that there's a 60% or more probability that it will get to the opposite band. We've also now come up with a strategy for this to say, well, only if it comes down to the lower band and retests it, will that then create a buy with a stop at the most recent low and targeting either the upper band or some further up levels. Now let's actually put that into some form of context because if we are going to have that, if we are going to have that, then you imagine down here, you've gone into the trade here and each one of these bars that I've tested this on a monthly chart, each one of these bars is a month long. So if you were looking to hold it on a and wait for a close back inside the bands here, then one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight months. Well, if you held on to a euro dollar long position for eight months, then you would incur quite a lot of swap charges overnight fees if you were holding on to a euro dollar trade that long and certainly if you wait waited for it to close below the lower band, which in this instance wasn't much higher, then you have several months longer than that. So is it feasible? Is it practical to be able to trade this on these higher timeframes such as the monthly charts? Is it fat practical? Well, it doesn't matter at the moment. This is just an exercise in testing it. So the next job to do and what I would encourage anyone who's interested in this to do would be to test it on weekly charts on daily charts as well. I don't think it'd be worth it on intraday. Sorry for your intraday traders. I don't think this, I think the noise of intraday just wouldn't work. So but weekly charts and potentially daily charts. So that would be something to test it on. Now, because then you're not holding on to a trade for eight months, like in potentially in this instance. Now, one way to overcome that would be to say, well, you would only take trades when the swaps are favourable in your direction. So when it comes to the euro dollar, you would only take trades when the euro is on a short setup. Because if you're short euro dollar, then you receive the overnight swaps with your broker. If you're long euro dollar, then you're paying those swaps and then they gradually add up. They're only small but they add up if you're holding on to a trade for eight months. So that would be the way to do it if you wanted to trade it just in the background on monthly charts or even weekly charts that you might say, well, you'll only take setups which are swap favourable to you. And so that then overcomes that. So what we've done at the moment is we've got all this information. I've taken this screenshot earlier on. It's not giving all the information there, but all of this is nicely profitable there. I will leave it to you to go off and do your own testing on this for those who are interested. I think it's very, very important for people to do their own testing on something. If you just get fed every last detail of the of my own tests, then that's not actually going to do you any favours. There's nothing better than testing something yourself. And by all means, many of you will say I might be able to do something with this information with other stuff that you currently use. And that's why when we said about doing this presentation about how it can be integrated with your own trading, like I've said, I like using those monthly charts. I won't trade it as a mechanical approach like I have to shown you with those. This is a mechanical approach looking at these various exit exits after a retest of the band. So I won't do that, but it's an interesting exercise and some people who like trading mechanically will love that sort of thing. But it's still really useful for me when I'm trading off a daily chart, if I know we've closed inside the bands on a monthly time frame, and on the daily chart it starts looking quite bearish, then okay, well I'll trade the short side. And that reminds me, I said that I'd go and show you what was going on there potentially on the monthly. So we've still got until next Monday, but the Euro, it's not got a lot to do. It's obviously been moving up a little bit just whilst I've been doing this presentation this evening. But if the Euro was to close back inside the bands monthly bands, at the end of next Monday, then that will be a confirmed close inside the bands, and then it will give us a 60% likelihood, not 100%, but a 60% likelihood of a run down to that lower band down here. Well, you know, if the Euro starts breaking down on the daily chart and I take a short trade on the Euro on the daily, well I can then use that in conjunction with the knowledge that, well, we do have a 60% probability of price working its way to that lower band, okay. So in summary, using those average and lowest, the average of the lowest and highest prices tells us a lot about that short term momentum switch. That's all it is. It's just saying, well prices can now close back up above the lowest average price of the last five bars, or it's just close below the average highest price of the last five bars. It's just telling us that there's a bit of a momentum switch there in the short term. Once we get that close back inside the bands, we know there's a 60% plus probability of a run to the opposite band. That's how I personally use the information, but as I've said it can be traded mechanically. The only way to do that is to then wait for retests of the bands as I've gone through in tonight's presentation, and then look at a variety of targets. You can make up your own targets, and it does look highly profitable, I must admit. But I've just tested it so far on the monthly charts and people can obviously go and test it on other timeframes and other markets, whatever. The suggested levels are all profitable, and there's a but there, and the but is, like I've just said, I've done all that testing on monthly charts and from a practical sense, do you want to sit in a trade for eight months if you're paying swap fees? No, you probably don't. So if you did want to trade it on the monthly timeframe you'll be better off only trading it in the direction of when you're receiving the swaps. So using the euro dollar as an example, you receive swaps when you're short euro dollar and you pay swaps when you're long euro dollar. So I will leave it for you to test and adapt. I think that that is the right way to to deal with these sorts of things. It's not about like I said, just completely giving you every last bit of my testing, but test it yourself, utilise it, see if you can adapt it to how you trade if you want to. But like I said, I've been using this information for years and it's literally only been in the last month that for a bit of fun we started to test some of these hypotheses and then realised that actually, yeah from a mechanical trading perspective, they do actually look like they work quite well. Okay, so that is the end of the officially of the presentation and of course there's going to be plenty of of questions here. So I don't know where to start but I will try. So let's go and have a look what I got here. The thing is there's questions. This is the weird thing with with zoom is that you get questions in a Q&A box but you've also got people asking questions in the chat box as well. So bear with me. If I haven't answered your question I will get to it. We are at 7.45, 48 so I better try and hurry up. Will you be sending them recorded zoom? Yes, it will be it is being recorded and it will get sent to you. How do you calculate the expected value of your one trade setup if the profit targets are always moving due to the bands? Do you not get a rough estimation of ours you can put from backtesting? Yes, absolutely. Exactly, Carl. What I do is I go in, when you do the back test I would always be conservative on my numbers so I would always actually pick when looking at the bands because you're right they move but when you're backtesting I would always take the level of the band from the prior month and then that sorts that out no problem and so that is how you then log it and get your R numbers. The R numbers are here in here. The R numbers for the columns are here so we've got some big R numbers, some 8 16R trade here, 14R trades and some big R numbers within all of that. What are the averages again? They're both 5 period averages one is set to the highest price so rather than just traditionally with moving averages they're set to the close price. This is for Maddie they are set to what you put two 5 period moving averages on exponentials, one set to the high and then put that on your chart and the other one is set to the lowest price and then put that on your chart that's what that is. The recording will be coming through. Joe thanks for the presentation what platform would you recommend for backtesting my current broker IG only allows 12 months using 5 minute charts that's not much use but I'd like to back test further i.e. 5 years well if you want some independent charts then independent of whatever broker you use tonight we are doing this in conjunction with Tickmill but for an independent charts and I've got a feeling with Tickmill this is trading view charts here and I've got a feeling that Tickmill give you free access to trading view charts. Don't quote me 100% on this because I forget things that various brokers might have you'd need to check with Tickmill but if you have an account with them then I've got a feeling that they actually can give you a trading view charts but trading view is really cheap anyway so I would recommend trading view charts anyway they're really cheap I used to be paying £250 a month for my previous charts with trading view I pay about £250 per year and I've got one of their more premium packages so you can have a lower level package so they are very good how can you contact me well contact me via social media if you want don't DM me on any of my social media because I never DM or just come to my website you can always contact me through our website at charlieburtontrading.com thank you for sharing for us thank you Martin that was for Thanos thank you for the knowledge shared please how do I get in touch with you that's another person asking that just go to the website there's a contact form on my website charlieburtontrading.com or my youtube channel I'm relatively active on youtube you can always post a question or a comment against any of my videos and I'll always see those on my youtube channel again it's charlieburtontrading how many trades should you back test furthermore how many forward tests until trade live yeah good point there Carl I think with something like this it's a low frequency trading setup so you're never going to have thousands because it's generally speaking it's a lower frequency trade setup but and so like I went with the monthlies I went all the way back to 1986 so it did go back quite a way with the weekly charts I only went back I needed to go back to 19 2010 and that gave enough so yeah it does depend on the strategy this naturally is a lower frequency strategy anyway so never going to expect to have thousands in a back test but bear in mind with me Carl I've actually been using this myself for years so I have higher level of confidence in it but but for you if you're going to do it on the monthlies I would still recommend on the monthlies going back 30 or 40 years if you have access to that data which you do with trading view and on a weekly chart correspondingly probably about 10 years later thanks Lorena which steak did you prefer Wagyu or Engus what I've missed that one Fendi sorry I don't know what that's all about Carl furthermore would you tackle or would you tackle that some trades hit 17R and others hit 1R do you target the mean or the medium of two no but you can I've just like I said you can test any type of exits that you want so you could that's one thing that I didn't I haven't tested as yet is just literally going for a a mechanical exit of just X number of R so you could just do that as well or come up with any other exit strategy you like I just picked four there just for the purpose of showing this testing I'm never going to trade this mechanically myself that's not how I trade but but for the purpose of the exercise and giving it to my traders then because some of them do like to mechanically trade then I gave them some ideas there but yeah you could pick any other exit and just use an R multiple was an exit if you wanted to Mike thank you for your presentation looking forward to testing and trying to integrate this into your strategy I'm relatively new and this was very informative thank you that's much appreciated there Mike Jose thank you do you have a telegram group no I don't I have my own app for my me and my traders it within my community but I don't use telegram for that thanks for this Johan I have a question though how do you feel about using those trading setups for crypto do you think is exactly the same or completely different Johan I really wouldn't know you would need to test that yeah I I predominantly trade the euro dollar and have done for years so you would need to go and test that Barker please what's the parameters of the two moving averages you're using I think I've already answered that if if you have missed the beginning then you will get the the recording if you have missed the beginning so I do go I've gone through that a couple of times now during this presentation nice speech what's the name of the indicator in trading view it's just a moving average it's literally an exponential moving average now I'm telling you anyway Barker there you go so it's an exponential moving average and you put two on five period exponential moving average one of them you set to the high and then the other one you set to the lowest price so they will default to the closing price when you put a moving average on but that's not what we're doing with these so two five period of exponential moving averages and just change it from the closing price and then you put one of them set it to the high and then click on okay and then you do the other one set it to the lowest price and then click on okay and that will give you if I can go back that will give you the bands that will look will appear on your chart like this just reading a long question here so I'll read it out your current system on GU and EU is to target five are I moved the stop to break even after four are and on the EU you're targeting three are is it smarter to take profits as price moves in my direction such as start taking profits at fixed levels if so how you calculate in the expected value of back test if you are using a system taking partials always see well you add them together then divide by two or divide by three that's how you do that also if you taking partials wouldn't this be considered as an average loss system instead of a strict oh god sorry Carl your question is so much off the beaten track from what I'm doing here I've really got to answer people's question in relation to this apologies on that but there's other people asking questions on the on the on this topic here tonight you're working and didn't view this where can you you review this webinar Antonio we'll get it emailed to you in the coming days tick mill will will contact you with the recording I'm just trying to catch up with the questions you see how can I get this video I see I'm asking yep I'll just answer that thank you for the presentation there's plenty of thank yous and I do appreciate the thank yous as much appreciated does the retest need to close below the lower moving average no it doesn't thank you Thanos note the retest only needs to touch it so when I was testing it if we come back here so if we take this example here when I'm testing it again I'm always conservative on the testing so I actually I don't actually log it at the point that it actually hits the the the lower moving average there I I actually add 15 to 20 pips on top actually so I'm quite cruel in the testing in just because I think it's better to come up with worse figures so then it's better to back test worse figures and then you might be surprised by the reality so no it doesn't need to do anything it doesn't need to just double-check in your question there does it need to close below the low moving no it just needs to touch it that's all it needs to do but thanks that's a good question right there are other questions in the Q&A box so I'm going to try and work my oh my word try my work my way through the Q&A box I'm going to start with the latest the most recent questions and then we'll take it from there so Rob has asked the question do you think this isn't worth using on a four hour one hour or 15 minute chart I don't think so Rob the problem with the smaller timeframes the amount of noise that's there so it's this is more suited to the larger timeframes probably the weekly and monthly I haven't tested it on on dailies as yet but probably best suited to the the weekly and monthly yeah is there anything else to add on that yeah but no like I've said I've given suggestions on how you can actually talk about trading that but by all means test it on the dailies as well but intraday I doubt it you could try it on a four hour chart but I'm just going to put it out there I suspect that it loses its edge on such small timeframes Blake thank you very much Alex hi Alex as well a bit of an unrelated question oh no always wanted to ask it to a trust worthy successful trader how do you decide which market to analyze and trade do you just go through all of them or do you have preferences this is a good question actually do you rely on expected news to decide or something else right wow there's a lot in one I'll give you a little bit there Alex I'm always a believer I quite like trading just a few markets really so I'm not out there trading 30 different markets but that's my preference I would rather probably 80% of my trading is just on Euro dollar alone and then I will trade other markets but I do spend a lot of time trading that way but and I'll trade the S&P as well and I'll trade gold occasionally and the NASDAQ and but so that's how I trade but it's not how you have to trade so so that's how I decide you know what I do is look at all the major currency pairs so if we're looking at currencies first and foremost in my analysis every day of the week I look at the major currency pairs so the Euro dollar the pound dollar the dollar yen the Aussie dollar the New Zealand dollar I tend to not bother with the dollar Swiss and I look at the dollar CAD as well and then I'll look at the S&P the NASDAQ and the Dow I'll look at gold and silver oil and then I'll also look at bond yields as well because bond yields are so important at the moment they are all of those markets are interrelated so that's more than enough I'm not trying to trade all of those markets but I'm watching them within my into market analysis to say okay if Euro dollar is up but the pound dollar and the Aussie dollar are down then that gives me a little bit of a red flag you know that type of thing so that would take me a whole presentation or a whole course just to go through into market analysis there Alex but in the main I trade those few major currency pairs and of those currency pairs when I say I trade them that's what I'm analyzing and a lot of the time I'm just trading the Euro dollar but now and again I'll trade the dollar yen or the pound dollar as well or the Aussie or the Kiwi so I will trade those others but 80% of the time it's the Euro okay Charles if you're still there you asked what other indicators I use with the bands well again that's a personal choice again it's another presentation in itself so I can't go in that tonight do you have bots running strategies I do have bots actually Blake but you've got to bear in mind Blake that I'm an old school trader I enjoy manually trading so I do have some bots but they are only running on a very small amount of capital the enjoyment of trading for me isn't just about making money it's the mental challenge of pitting myself against the markets and working out it's like a game of chess and trying to work out your the next moves that are going to take place and so just having automation for me isn't enough trading for me is much deeper than just trying to make money from the markets it's a game of chess and the way for me to do that is to manually trade okay I know I haven't got round to all of the questions but they were from a lot earlier now so I'm going to just leave the earlier questions if you don't mind because I've already seen exactly Blake yes it's it's an art chess game exactly so I've realized we are pushing on a little bit now so there will be another webinar coming up in about a month it's time so at some point later in August we will do another webinar within this series there's a three webinar series so I'll be doing another one later in August as well so you will get to hear about that hopefully you will be on I guess the mailing list of Tick Meals so you will get to hear about it and so yeah thank you very much for spending a little bit of time with me tonight sorry for being a little bit way late at times because we have been doing this during FOMC and so I want to go and check out what's been going on over there as well and hopefully I see some of you in the near future do check me out charlieburtontrading.com or just go to my YouTube channel which is Charlie Burton Trading and you can always follow that as well and hopefully I'll see some of you soon