 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 20th of July with me, Patrick Munderley. So the tone for FX markets will largely be a function of the outcome of the ongoing EU summit, which is due to end today. But in the US next week with the calendar, otherwise looking fairly quiet, the focus is really going to be on earnings season. We've had the major bangs and now we're going to shift into the big tech giants this week. FXs continue to prove a quite contained sensitivity to both the surge in US COVID-19 cases and geopolitical tensions. Gaging the magnitude of the economic recovery remains pivotal for the market sentiment and the safe haven dollar. But with the next week's quiet calendar, we may not have much on offer in this sense. Housing data will be the only focus in the US with expectations around a solid rebound after the jump in mortgage applications. On the political side, we may see talks around a new fiscal package intensify. With EU summit outcome likely, as I say, setting the tone at the start of the week and as of lunchtime here at UK time, the tone looks a little less optimistic than it did on Friday. But we could still see the US dollar offered if we do get some positive comments as the summit concludes later today. Although weak sentiment in terms of Chinese equities may limit Asia FX gains. So from a technical perspective with respect to the dollar index, if we do get a positive outcome from the summit, then I expect the dollar to trade lower and basically retest the 9460. However, like I said at the moment, we're not seeing quite the same level of optimism that we were hearing on Friday. And so if we can hold these current lows at 9580, I'd look for a pop higher in the dollar into test this descending trend line resistance at the 9750 area. We're certainly watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions looking for a move down to test this 95 area. So the outcome of the EU summit will obviously be the key defining factor for the euro this week, and really for the wider G10 FX price action as per the case of a potential compromise being made, but probably no final agreement being reached as of yet. More negotiations will probably still be required. But if negotiations were to appear on the right path and the agreement being a question of when rather than if, this would likely be a positive for the euro. On the eurozone economic data front, the focus is on the July PMIs released on Friday, both manufacturing and services surveys are expected to rise with the July PMI service to move back into expansionary territory, i.e. above 50 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe. So, from a technical perspective with respect to the euro dollar, it's pretty asymmetric here. If we don't get any positive positive news out of the EU summit, I am expecting a pullback in the euro dollar to test symmetry swing support down to the 112 area before longs look to rebuild and ultimately challenge the 115. And obviously if the inverse is the case and we do get positive turns from the EU summit then, I've been looking for the euro to make a pretty quick test of this 115 range resistance, and from there we likely see some profit taking. And then our symmetry target would move up to around this 112-60. So we could get, you know, buy the room or sell the fact type price action, as I discussed in Friday's chart for the euro. So, with respect to sterling, if the summit does give a boost to risk sentiment, I would expect sterling to lag most of its European peers, probably with the exception of the Swissie, given its relatively lower beta to risk, and an even more sterling, more exposed to falling markets, i rungling than rising markets. And the EU-UK trade negotiations are still in overhang. On the UK data front, the focus is on June retail sales, and July PMI is both released on Friday. On the former, I've been looking for a sharp rebound as the UK extended lockdown measures, although under the surface there will be changes in the consumer spending behaviour from sales in physical shops moving to online sales on the PMIs, the services, PMI, may go back above the 50 level, but its explanatory power is limited. It only tells one story with respect to firms report better conditions after the free fall that they'd experienced earlier in the year. While both are positive, this is unlikely to prompt meaningful sterling gains, given the idiosyncratic issues sterling faces at the moment. So, from a technical perspective, whilst we hold this 126.55 resistance area, still looking for sterling to make a test of the equality target back down to this 121.20 range support area. However, if we do get some positive news and we see sterling capture bid, then I'd look for a retest of the 128 before a correction. But, like I said, whilst we hold 126.50, I'm looking for 121. The BOJ really, the meeting last week, left very little marks in terms of impact on the air and as the bank kept all its existing policy measures unchanged. The dolly yen continues to trade in a fairly tight range, failing at the moment to sustain the trade below 1.07, despite these geopolitical tensions and the downturn in Chinese equities. Next week, I would expect the yen appears to be lacking clear catalysts for an idiosyncratic move, whilst there might be more interest in the euro yen given its links to the outcome of the EU summit. So, from a technical perspective with respect to the dollar yen, still as we hold this 108 resistance here, I'm ultimately looking for a move, a grind lower potentially, to test this 104.50, which will be a pivotal test for the yen. But if bids do come into the market, then I would anticipate we hold this range resistance, but we probably grind up there into that 108 before trading lower again. In Australia, Australia is really facing the worst period of its battle against the pandemic, with the state of Victoria back in full lockdown, but still seeing big daily jumps in cases. The complacency of the Aussie dollar to this situation keeps highlighting some higher downside risk to the currency compared probably to the Kiwi dollar. Chinese equities dynamics may remain a key driver, given that the Aussie has the highest correlation with the Chinese one in the G10 space. Australia's central bank will release its minutes of the July policy meeting on Tuesday. What might be interesting to note is any currency-related comment in what was otherwise uneventful meeting. Some comments on the Aussie might also come from the speech of Governor Lowe after the release, as we see little change really in rhetoric from the committee. But we'll see if there's any additional comments with respect to policy standards. From a technical perspective, as the Aussie continues to find offers above the 70 level, I'm looking for a pullback into this 67-50 area. However, if we do get positive risk sentiment at the open, we could easily see the Aussie trade-up and test towards 71 before seeing a potential pullback. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 20th of July.